Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology update

February, 26, 2012
2/26/12
12:40
AM ET
We know you can't wait until Monday morning, so here's an abbreviated version of Joe Lunardi's latest bracket projection:

THE HEADLINES
  • No. 1 seeds after today (Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Michigan State).
  • Last team in the field is Saint Joseph's, which beat Temple tonight.
  • UConn is still in despite a loss to Syracuse that drops the Huskies to 7-9 in the Big East.
  • Xavier, Texas and Northwestern hang on to "Last Four In" positions with narrow victories.
  • Huge Sunday games for Miami (vs. Florida State) and South Florida (vs. Cincinnati).
TOP SEED PAIRINGS

SOUTH/Kentucky vs. WEST/Michigan State (1 vs. 4)
EAST/Syracuse vs. MIDWEST/Kansas (2 vs. 3)

BUBBLE BATTLES

Last Four In
Xavier
Texas
Northwestern
Saint Joseph’s

First Four Out
Colorado State
Miami (Fla.)
VCU
South Florida

Next Four Out
Dayton
UCF
Oregon
NC State

BRACKET MATH

Take the "solid" at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 85 percent or better) and there are exactly 34 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that's another 19 spots. All told, 53 of the 68 spots are accounted for, with 15 still up for grabs among current "bubble" teams.

S-CURVE PROJECTION

1-KENTUCKY 2-SYRACUSE 3-Kansas* 4-Michigan State*
8-Ohio State 7-Missouri 6-North Carolina 5-Duke
9-Marquette 10-Baylor 11-Georgetown 12-Michigan
16-Indiana 15-Wisconsin 14-Florida State 13-Louisville
17-Florida 18-Notre Dame 19-WICHITA STATE 20-UNLV
24-Creighton 23-MURRAY STATE 22-Vanderbilt 21-Temple*
25-New Mexico 26-Gonzaga 27-San Diego State 28-Purdue
32-California* 31-Memphis* 30-Virginia 29-SAINT MARY'S
33-Iowa State 34-Kansas State 35-Southern Miss 36-Saint Louis
40-Washington 39-Connecticut 38-Alabama 37-Cincinnati
41-LONG BEACH STATE 42-Arizona 43-Harvard* 44-Seton Hall
48-Xavier 47-Brigham Young 46-West Virginia 45-Mississippi State
49-Texas 50-Northwestern 51-Saint Joseph's 52-ORAL ROBERTS
56-Akron* 55-MIDDLE TENNESSEE 54-DREXEL 53-IONA
57-Nevada* 58-BELMONT 59-DAVIDSON 60-VALPARAISO
64-LONG ISLAND 63-UT ARLINGTON 62-Weber State* 61-BUCKNELL
65-UNC ASHEVILLE 66-Stony Brook* 67-MISS. VALLEY STATE 68-Savannah State*
72-South Florida 71-VCU 70-Miami (Fla.) 69-Colorado State
73-Dayton 74-UCF 75-Oregon 76-NC State
*Current conference leader.
ALL CAPS: Regular-season champion (NIT auto-bid if needed)

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (9)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Atlantic 10 (4)
Mountain West (3)
Pac-12 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)

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