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Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology update

2/29/2012

There weren't many games Tuesday night, but there were plenty of consequential results. Here's a late-night update from the Bracketologist:

THE HEADLINES

  • Michigan State drops off top line with loss at Indiana, replaced by Duke.

  • UConn stays in field despite loss at Providence, but has fallen to No. 44 overall on the S-Curve ("Last Eight In").

  • Xavier falls out of field after loss at Saint Louis, replaced by South Florida.

  • Montana replaces Weber State as regular-season Big Sky champ.

TOP SEED PAIRINGS

SOUTH/Kentucky vs. WEST/Duke (1 vs. 4)

EAST/Syracuse vs. MIDWEST/Kansas (2 vs. 3)

BUBBLE BATTLES

Last Four In

Miami

Texas

Northwestern

South Florida

First Four Out

Xavier

Saint Joseph's

VCU

Colorado State

Next Four Out

Oregon

Colorado

Dayton

NC State

Also considered: Illinois, New Mexico State, Ohio, UCF

BRACKET MATH

Take the “solid” at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 85 percent or better), and there are now 34 teams in the field. Add the remaining automatic qualifiers, and that’s another 20 spots. That's 54 of the 68 spots accounted for, with 14 still up for grabs among current bubble teams.

BUBBLE (26 teams for 14 spots)

IN (14, in S-Curve order): 35-Southern Miss, 36-California, 37-Cincinnati, 38-Alabama, 41-Arizona, 43-Seton Hall, 44-Connecticut, 45-West Virginia, 46-Mississippi State, 47-Brigham Young, 48-Miami, 49-Texas, 50-Northwestern, 51-South Florida

OUT (12, in S-Curve order): 69-Xavier, 70-Saint Joseph’s, 71-VCU, 72-Colorado State, 73-Oregon, 74-Colorado, 75-Dayton, 76-NC State, 77-Illinois, 78-New Mexico State, 79-Ohio U., 80-Central Florida

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)

Big Ten (7)

Big 12 (6)

ACC (5)

SEC (5)

Mountain West (3)

Pac-12 (3)

West Coast (3)

Atlantic 10 (2)

Conference USA (2)

Missouri Valley (2)