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Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology update

3/9/2012

Editor’s note: This update does not include BYU-Gonzaga in the WCC tournament.

NOTABLE

  • North Carolina moves up to top line as projected No. 1 seed.

  • Belmont (Atlantic Sun) clinches fifth NCAA bid in seven years.

  • Texas falls out of field, replaced by Xavier (“Last Team In”).

Last Four In

Xavier

Northwestern

South Florida

Colorado State

First Four Out

Texas

VCU

Oregon

NC State

Next Four Out

Miami

Tennessee

Saint Joseph’s

Dayton

BRACKET MATH

Take the “solid” at-large candidates (current Tournament Odds at 90% or better) and there are now 34 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that’s another 20 spots. All told there are 54 of the 68 spots accounted for, with 14 still up for grabs among current “Bubble” teams.

S-CURVE PROJECTIONS

1-KENTUCKY 2-SYRACUSE 3-KANSAS 4-NO. CAROLINA

8-Ohio State 7-Missouri 6-Duke 5-Michigan State*

9-Marquette 10-Georgetown 11-Baylor 12-Michigan

16-UNLV 15-Florida 14-Indiana 13-Wisconsin

17-Louisville 18-Wichita State 19-Florida State 20-TEMPLE

24-CREIGHTON 23-Notre Dame 22-Murray State 21-Vanderbilt

25-Gonzaga 26-New Mexico 27- San Diego State* 28-MEMPHIS

32-Purdue 31-Kansas State 30-Iowa State 29-SAINT MARY’S

33-Alabama 34-Cincinnati 35-Virginia 36-Southern Miss

40-Connecticut 39-Washington* 38-California 37-Saint Louis

41-West Virginia 42-Seton Hall 43-Harvard* 44-LONG BEACH STATE

48-Colorado State 47-Mississippi State 46-Brigham Young 45-Arizona

49-South Florida 50-Northwestern 51-Xavier 52-IONA

56-NEVADA 55-ORAL ROBERTS 54-DREXEL 53-MIDDLE TENNNESSEE

57-Belmont 58-DAVIDSON 59-AKRON 60-VALPARAISO

64-UNC Asheville 63-UT ARLINGTON 62-MONTANA 61-BUCKNELL

65-LONG ISLAND 66-STONY BROOK 67-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 68-SAVANNAH STATE

72-NC State 71-Oregon 70-VCU 69-Texas

73-Miami (Fla.) 74-Saint Joseph’s 75-Dayton 76-Tennessee

Bold - automatic qualifier; * - current conference leader.

ALL CAPS: Regular-season champion (NIT auto-bid if needed)

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)

Big Ten (7)

Big 12 (5)

SEC (5)

ACC (4)

Mountain West (4)

Atlantic 10 (3)

Pac-12 (3)

West Coast (3)

Conference USA (2)

Missouri Valley (2)

NCAA AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

UNC Asheville (Big South)

Murray State (Ohio Valley Conference)

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)