You probably don't need any advanced statistical analysis to know that without forward Robbie Hummel, Purdue doesn't look anything like the once-ascendant Final Four team of a few weeks ago. Rather, Purdue has faded, a fade that culminated with one of the worst offensive performances in the school's history in a Big Ten tourney loss to Minnesota. Without Hummel in the lineup, Purdue isn't much looking like Purdue.

This should have come as no surprise ... but it does. Sorry, but I was one of those goofy folks who thought that the Hummel injury, while tough, wasn't the sort of thing that should have forced Purdue fans under their blankets for the rest of the season. This is still a talented team, a team with balance at the guard position (E'Twaun Moore remains underrated) and on the block (where JaJuan Johnson has been quietly productive for years now), and one that boasts a supporting cast full of intelligent, capable players.

Thus far, that optimistic notion appears to be wrong. The Boilermakers without Hummel are in really bad shape -- and that advanced statistical analysis you probably didn't need in the first place happens to back it up. From Dan Hanner:

With Hummel (27 games)
Adj Off Eff: 114.3
Adj Def Eff: 86.4
Pythag Winning Pct. = .9615

Without Hummel (5 games)
Adj Off Eff: 94.7
Adj Def Eff: 85.6
Pythag Winning Pct. = .7622

Odds of beating Siena with Hummel: 82%
Odds of beating Siena without Hummel: 37%
Current odds on kenpom.com: 74%

It's worth noting that the sample size of Purdue games without Hummel is obviously much smaller than the sample with him in the lineup, and that Minnesota game was so bad that it might qualify for outlier status, bringing the whole batch of "without Hummel" numbers down much further than they rightfully belong. But still. The game happened. These numbers are what they are. Robbie Hummel was incredibly important for Purdue, maybe even more important than any of us thought -- and we were freaking out when he got hurt. Imagine how Purdue fans must feel.