The Cavaliers are highly unlikely to receive an at-large bid, and it has nothing to do with their loss to Florida State.
Virginia has seven losses against teams ranked outside the RPI top 100. No team has received an at-large bid with that many losses outside the RPI top 100 in the last 20 seasons, according to Jerry Palm of CBS Sports.
Most Losses vs RPI 101+ to Receive At-Large Bid Last 20 Seasons
The Cavaliers' nonconference strength of schedule ranks 302nd. Only four teams in the last decade have received an at-large bid with a strength of schedule of 300 or worse.
Unlike Virginia, which Lunardi considers squarely on the bubble, all four of those teams were securely in as a No. 8 seed or better; 2012 Cincinnati, 2007 Washington State, 2007 Notre Dame and 2006 George Washington -- were ranked in the RPI top 50.
Bubble teams tend not to receive at-large bids with weak nonconference schedules. Look no further than 2012 Drexel (226th), 2011 Colorado (331st), 2010 Virginia Tech (338th) and 2009 Penn State (312th).
Virginia's RPI currently ranks 70th. No team in the last 20 seasons has received an at-large bid with an RPI ranked worse than 74th. That team was New Mexico in 1999.
Worst RPI Rank to Receive At-Large Bid Last 20 Seasons
No matter which bubble team the Cavaliers are compared against, they'll likely have a worse nonconference strength of schedule and more bad losses. That's besides the fact that the Cavaliers are 3-9 away from home this season.
Their quality wins over Wisconsin, North Carolina, NC State and Duke likely won't be enough to overcome their weak nonconference schedule and bad losses to Delaware, Georgia Tech, Boston College, George Mason, Old Dominion, Wake Forest and Clemson.