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The stars have aligned for a long run with a zero on the right side of Murray State’s record. College basketball being what it is, the chance of entering the NCAA tournament unbeaten is still quite remote. I have the Racers at 9% to get their conference tourney unbeaten. When you factor in the BracketBusters game and the two games they’ll play in the OVC tournament, the chance of getting to the dance unbeaten is probably in the neighborhood of 6% or so. The chance of losing four games is actually better than the chance of them losing none.
Like any team, Murray State will have 2 or 3 games where they play well below their normal performance, and their opponents will have some games where they play over their heads, and when those happen in the same game, the streak will be over. (Plus, OVC schedule-makers didn’t do the Racers any favors by letting them play the presumed conference doormat, SIU Edwardsville, just once.)
Still, at this point in the season, 6% is probably one of the higher figures we’ve seen since UNLV achieved the feat 21 years ago. If a power conference team was entering league play unbeaten, there would be some debate about whether they could go unbeaten. And normally, some poor pundit would take the side that they can. Murray State is in a situation far more reasonable because they are so much better than any team in their conference.