Monday, March 19, 2012
Only three had all Sweet 16
By ESPN.com staff
Thanks to a handful of double-digit seeds reaching the Sweet 16, there are just three brackets out of 6.45 million in Tournament Challenge to get all 16 teams correct. Another 121 got 15 of 16 correct. On the other end of the spectrum, there were 1,973 brackets with no Sweet 16 teams.
The current leader in the game has 580 points and did get all the Sweet 16 teams correctly.
Another of the perfect Sweet 16s is tied for third overall. The third did not rank among the top 100 on the leaderboard. (Note: The grand prize winner is not necessarily the one with the most points at the end of the tournament, but rather from a random drawing of brackets finishing in the top one percent in the standings.)
Despite some of the upsets, an all-chalk bracket (picking the higher seeds) would still result in getting 11 Sweet 16 teams correctly and placing in the 92.4 percentile overall.
Percentage of brackets picking each region's Sweet 16 teams correctly:
East (Syracuse, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Cincinnati): 5.5 percent
South (Kentucky, Baylor, Indiana, Xavier): 1.3 percent
West (Michigan State, Marquette, Louisville, Florida): 4.3 percent
Midwest (North Carolina, Kansas, NC State, Ohio): 0.7
Sweet 16 teams picked by the fewest number of Tournament Challenge brackets (all played on Sunday):
No. 13 Ohio: 4.2 percent
No. 10 Xavier: 5.0 percent
No. 7 Florida: 11.9 percent
No. 6 Cincinnati: 17.5 percent
No. 11 NC State: 18.2 percent
More on those low-number seeds:
NC State over Georgetown
NC State was picked to reach the Sweet 16 in 18.5 percent of Tournament Challenge brackets, by far the best number for a double-digit seed. They were also picked in President Obama's bracket. Just 3.3 percent of brackets have NC State in the Elite Eight and 1.0 percent in the Final Four.
Ohio over USF
4.2 percent of Tournament Challenge brackets picked Ohio to reach the Sweet 16, although it was the best total among the No. 13 seeds. Just 0.2 percent have the Bobcats in the Final Four.
Xavier over Lehigh
5.0 percent of Tournament Challenge brackets had Xavier in the Sweet 16, and 0.3 percent have the Musketeers in the Final Four. Interestingly, of the brackets that successfully picked both Xavier and Lehigh to meet in the Round of 32 (46,796 brackets), Lehigh was actually picked in more brackets (24,368-22,428).
Florida over Norfolk State
The Gators are the most popular No. 7 seed in Tournament Challenge when it comes to making the Sweet 16 (11.9 percent) and reaching the Final Four (2.4 percent).
Cincinnati over Florida State
While the Bearcats were selected in just 17.5 percent of brackets to reach the Sweet 16, the upset had a much bigger effect on the bracket because Florida State was picked to reach the Final Four in 26.3 percent of brackets (even more than a No. 1 seed in Syracuse and a No. 2 seed in Duke) and to win it all in 2.8 percent.
Most popular picks to win title still alive:
Kentucky: 35.1 percent
North Carolina: 17.9 percent
Michigan State: 7.5 percent
Kansas: 6.2 percent
Syracuse: 5.1 percent
Ohio State: 4.8 percent
Baylor: 1.7 percent
Louisville: 0.8 percent
Percentage of total brackets to reach Elite Eight/Final Four/Title Game/Win Title for each Sweet 16 team:
North Carolina: 85.5/57.0/40.0/17.9
NC State: 3.3/1.0/0.32/0.15
President Obama's bracket
The president missed four games on Sunday, but three of those games involved teams who lost on Friday (Duke, Missouri, Michigan). He also lost the Cincinnati-Florida State game, but did get NC State over Georgetown. He's got 460 points, good for the 98th percentile. He has 12 of his Sweet 16 alive but is missing a Final Four team (Missouri)
Notable brackets (Total points, percentile; Sweet 16 teams/Final Four teams remaining)