Friday, January 10, 2014
Weekend Picks: Iowa over Ohio State?
By Myron Medcalf
I never thought Cincy would stomp the Tigers the way it did last weekend. That was my lone blemish.
I figured out the rest, though.
I have a feeling, however, that I’ll be less accurate this weekend. Too many difficult matchups to predict.
So I’d advise you to take all of this with a grain of salt. (What on earth does that mean anyway?)
Last week: 4-1 Overall: 17-8
Roy Williams takes his wildly inconsistent squad into the Carrier Dome to play No. 2 Syracuse.
North Carolina at No. 2 Syracuse, noon ET, ESPN: Oh, Tar Heels, college basketball’s chameleon. At least they make it fun, right? I mean, every time North Carolina takes the floor, we’re all curious about the version of the program that will actually show up. Will it be the team that has defeated every ranked opponent that it has played this season (Louisville, Michigan State, Kentucky)? Or will it be the team that has suffered losses to UAB, Texas, Miami and Wake Forest? Saturday’s matchup at Syracuse might be this team’s toughest test thus far. The Orange do most things well. They’re a Ken Pomeroy gem. They’re great on the offensive glass, they don’t commit many turnovers, they force plenty of turnovers, they defend well, and they’re loaded -- the same situation that North Carolina has encountered and overcome multiple times against ranked opponents.
Prediction: North Carolina 82, Syracuse 80
No. 9 Iowa State at Oklahoma, noon ET, ESPNU: When I was in Ames earlier this week for Iowa State-Baylor, Cyclones fans told me that they were nervous about this game. Lon Kruger’s program has given other nationally ranked opponents fits this season. The Sooners are fifth in the country with 87.0 PPG scoring average. On paper, Iowa State is certainly the better team. And the Cyclones are coming off a 15-point whipping of Baylor. But this is their third true road game of the season. Plus, there’s a gigantic matchup versus Kansas coming on Monday. This is dangerous for the Cyclones because Oklahoma is good enough to ruin Iowa State’s undefeated record, especially if Fred Hoiberg’s program gets caught looking ahead.
Prediction: Iowa State 82, Oklahoma 75
No. 25 Kansas State at No. 18 Kansas, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN: San Diego State became just the third team to beat Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse over the past 115 games. Think about that. That’s a tremendous streak. The Jayhawks rarely lose at the Phog. But Bill Self’s current assembly is still figuring things out. That’s fine in early December. But it should be troubling in early January, especially when Kansas has so much competition at the top of the Big 12, perhaps the best league in the country pound for pound. And the Jayhawks are playing a confident Wildcats team that is nationally ranked after upsetting Oklahoma State last weekend. Kansas State has a stubborn defense that can exploit KU’s knack for committing turnovers (K-State is 39th in defensive turnover rate per Ken Pomeroy). Can and will, however, are two different things.
Prediction: Kansas 79, Kansas State 76
No. 20 Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State, 1:30 p.m. ET, CBS: Ohio State nearly knocked off Michigan State in East Lansing after recovering from a 17-point deficit earlier this week. That’s really all you need to know about the Buckeyes. Their defensive prowess and guts have anchored the program all season. This wasn’t their first close call, but it was more proof that it will take a 40-minute effort (and possibly extra time) to beat Thad Matta’s program. For 30 minutes, Iowa outplayed Wisconsin on Sunday. Illinois’ lopsided loss in Madison on Wednesday should put the Hawkeyes’ performance in Madison in the proper perspective. Even after Fran McCaffery was ejected from that game, the Hawkeyes continued to fight. McCaffery’s team might be a legit Big Ten contender. Iowa would prove it by beating a top-tier squad on the road. Iowa will prove it by beating a top-tier Big Ten squad on the road.
Prediction: Iowa 69, Ohio State 68
Xavier at Creighton, 3 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network:Grant Gibbs’ knee injury is a major blow for Creighton. The Bluejays could have lost star Doug McDermott too. McDermott suffered a shoulder injury in a win over DePaul earlier this week. But he’ll be available this weekend for a critical Big East battle with Xavier. The Musketeers haven’t lost since late November when they ended the month on a three-game losing streak. They outplayed preseason title favorite Marquette on Thursday night behind Semaj Christon’s 28-point effort. Creighton, Villanova and Xavier are all 3-0 in league play. So Sunday’s matchup could be critical in the race, even though it’s early. The next time Xavier faces Creighton (March 1), Gibbs should be back in the mix. But even without him, Creighton will tough to beat in Omaha.