Tuesday, February 4, 2014
BPI Talk: Can Wichita State win out?
By Ryan Feldman
Mike DiNovo/USA TODAY Sports
According to BPI, the Wichita State Shockers have a good chance of going undefeated.
Along with Syracuse, Wichita State is one of two remaining unbeatens in men's college basketball.
The Shockers have a better chance of entering their conference tournament undefeated than Syracuse does. According to BPI, Wichita State has a 51 percent chance of winning out, compared with a 4.7 percent chance for Syracuse.
The Shockers have the best chance of any Division I team to win the remaining games on their schedule. Mercer is the next closest with a 45.6 percent chance.
According to BPI, the Shockers' two most difficult games are their next two games. On Wednesday, they have a 78.6 percent chance of winning at Indiana State. On Saturday, they have an 83 percent chance of winning at Northern Iowa.
After that, it's smooth sailing. In their last six games before the Missouri Valley conference tournament, the Shockers have a better than 93 percent chance of winning each game.
Duke is improving
Since Duke's loss at Clemson on Jan. 11, the Blue Devils have been the best team in the country based on BPI. They have won six of seven games, with their loss coming in overtime by two points at Syracuse on Saturday.
Despite losing a game last week, the Blue Devils moved up six spots in the AP poll from No. 17 to No. 11.
Duke also moved up eight spots over the last week in the BPI rankings. The Blue Devils were 21st in BPI after their loss to Clemson but are now No. 8.
Duke's win at Pittsburgh on Jan. 27 is the third-best performance in terms of BPI game score by any team this season. Its performance at Syracuse is the third-best BPI game score in a loss this season.
Despite having three losses in ACC play compared with no losses for Syracuse and one for Virginia, the Blue Devils could win the ACC regular-season title.
According to BPI, Duke has the best chance of any ACC team to win its remaining games this season (14 percent). Virginia has the easiest remaining ACC schedule, but given all circumstances (team BPI rank, location, etc.), Duke has the best chance to win out.
Is Saint Louis overrated?
The Saint Louis Billikens have two losses this season, both of which came in the first month of the season and by a combined 11 points to teams in the BPI top 20 (Wisconsin and Wichita State).
Since then, the Billikens have won 14 straight and are now ranked No. 24 in BPI.
This all sounds good, but the Billikens don't have any wins against the BPI top 50. They're the only team in the BPI top 25 without a win against a top-50 team.
Big Ten is tough
According to BPI, there are some tough remaining schedules in the Big Ten. Six of the 11 most difficult schedules in the country (and eight of the top 16) belong to Big Ten teams.
Among teams currently in the BPI top 45, Iowa has the toughest remaining schedule, followed by Michigan.
Despite that, Iowa has the best chance (3.4 percent) of any Big Ten team to win its remaining scheduled games.