ESPN Men's Basketball

Sport Science examines how close Gordon Hayward's shot was to going in and beating Duke.

INDIANAPOLIS -- After a coaching career that has spanned more than three decades, and includes multiple national championships and an Olympic gold medal, Duke's Mike Krzyzewski had nothing left to prove in Monday night's national championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium.

But Coach K once again showed what we learned a long time ago: There aren't many coaches better than him, regardless of the sport.

Krzyzewski won his fourth national championship after the Blue Devils defeated Butler 61-59 in one of the more epic finals of all-time.

The first three titles came much easier than this one, as the upstart Bulldogs had two chances to win the game in the final seconds. When Butler star Gordon Hayward's final half-court heave bounced off the rim, Coach K cemented his place among college basketball's greatest coaches.

If there was an expanded Mount Rushmore for college basketball, Krzyzewski's face would be next to those of UCLA's John Wooden, North Carolina's Dean Smith, Kentucky's Adolph Rupp and Indiana's Bob Knight.

"I've been fortunate enough to be in eight national championship games, and this was a classic," Krzyzewski said afterward. "This was the toughest and the best one."

This championship season might have been Krzyzewski's best coaching job. Two years after he led the U.S. Olympics team to a gold medal in Beijing, he guided a Blue Devils team short on depth and frontcourt stardom to a 35-5 record and a share of the ACC regular-season championship. Duke won 18 of its final 19 games and took home the league tournament title.

Then there was the biggest title of them all. After guiding Duke to its first national championship since 2001, Krzyzewski joined a very select few in college basketball history:

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  Kevin C. Cox/Getty ImagesAll things considered, this year's Duke team might have been Krzyzewski's best coaching job.
  His four national championships tie him for second with Rupp. Only Wooden won more national titles, winning 10 at UCLA from 1964-75.
• His 11 Final Four appearances are tied with Smith for second-most among coaches. Wooden guided UCLA teams to 12 Final Fours.
• He has coached in 19 Final Four games, tied with Smith for second-most, and his 12 Final Four wins are second only to Wooden's 21 victories.
• He holds the NCAA tournament record for winning percentage (.778, 77-22) and is first in tourney history with 77 victories and 99 games coached.
• He is the first coach to win national championships in three consecutive decades (1991, '92, '01 and '10).
• Under his guidance, Duke has played more games ranked as the No. 1 team (190) than it has as an unranked team (144).
• At some point in the next two seasons, Krzyzewski will probably surpass Knight as major college basketball's winningest coach. His 868 career victories are 34 behind Knight, his coach at the United States Military Academy from 1966 to '69.

But after guiding Duke to another national championship, Krzyzewski wasn't ready to reflect on his accomplishments.

"Tonight is not about that," he said. "That's like 10 years from now or whatever. Tonight is all about these guys."

Krzyzewski's team probably wasn't the most talented in the NCAA tournament. No. 1 seeds like Kansas and Kentucky had more NBA-ready players.

But the Blue Devils were the team cutting down the nets at season's end.

"It's hard, you know?" Krzyzewski said. "I've said throughout the year they were good, then they were really good, then they were really good with great character. Before coming to the press conference, I told our team that. It's because we always wanted to keep them chasing something. But I told them before we came here and before we said a prayer, 'You are a great team. You are a great team.'"

As told by a great coach.

INDIANAPOLIS -- You thought it was going in, didn't you?

I did. From my angle on press row, I thought when Butler's Gordon Hayward rushed up the right sideline with the ball, and teammate Matt Howard leveled Duke's Kyle Singler with a crushing blind-side screen, and Hayward suddenly was clear at midcourt and went off his left foot and extended his right arm and sent that prayer arcing through the Lucas Oil Stadium air toward the hoop ...

... I thought it was in.

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INDIANAPOLIS -- The national title game may be remembered for Gordon Hayward's near-miss from halfcourt that could have made Butler the most dramatic story in the sport.

But it didn't go in. Duke 61, Butler 59.

So we are left to decide how to put Duke latest national title in perspective after it really wasn't expected at any point this season prior to arriving at the Final Four.

If you're looking for a moment to define this team, the least publicized perhaps of any previous Duke champion, it might come down to a rebound off Hayward's first attempt to win the game with 3.6 seconds left and Butler down 60-59.

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INDIANAPOLIS -- They piled into the golf cart that would take them to their postgame interviews -- Avery Jukes in the shotgun seat, Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward side-by-side on the rear-facing backseat.

No one cried or even so much as dabbed at his eyes. Jukes held his chin in his hand, Mack put his head down and Hayward just stared vacantly ahead.

Of course the Butler players were crushed that they had just lost a national championship game for the ages to Duke, 61-59, but more, the Bulldogs were stunned.

Stunned that Hayward's fadeaway on the baseline didn't fall, stunned that his last-ditch half-court shot bounced off the backboard and front of the rim, but most of all stunned that they didn't win.

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INDIANAPOLIS -- After his players left the podium at Monday night's postgame press conference, Mike Krzyzewski reflected on what he'd just seen.

"The game was so good that anybody could have won," he said of the Duke's 61-59 victory. "I don't think we were lucky to win because we earned it. But there is something ..."

Krzyzewski trailed off, took a second, and began to speak again.

"I think we won because of these guys," he said. "And as good as the Butler story is, was, and will be, our story is pretty good too."

You have to hand it to him. When the man's right, he's right.

Duke's story is good. That goes for the off-the-court stuff Coach K was referring to, of course -- the success of players who aren't likely to make much money playing basketball at the next level, but who represent the Platonic ideal of smart, veteran college hoopsters. That also goes for the special relationship Coach K shared with his players, for Coach K's legacy, for the redemption story of Brian Zoubek, who spent two summers on crutches before making the key plays in the final seconds of a classic national championship game.

But just as interesting as all that is the way this Duke team developed on the floor throughout the season -- most noticeably in the ACC and NCAA tournaments. We shouldn't be surprised the Blue Devils won the title. They were this good. Here's why:

Offensive rebounding. This is the stat that pushed Duke over the top, morphing an already good offense into a brutally efficient one in March and April. Duke was the sixth-most effective team in the country at rebounding its own misses over the course of the season, and at 16.8 second-chance points per game, the Blue Devils were the best team in the NCAA tournament at converting those rebounds into points (stat courtesy of ESPN Stats and Information). In the first half of Monday night's game, Duke didn't get to the offensive boards, grabbing only 20 percent of its misses. But in the second half, the Devils grabbed eight offensive rebounds, good for 47.1 percent, and subsequently scored eight points. It was a fitting end to Duke's tournament run. The Blue Devils won with offensive rebounding yet again.

Offense in general, actually. Duke scored 1.24 points per possession this season, a potency that showed up in the Blue Devils' torrid performance against West Virginia on Saturday night. It wasn't evident on Monday -- Butler's defense held Duke to its third-lowest point total of the year and a mere 1.0 points per possession, an OK tally for an average team but a Saharan drought in comparison to the Blue Devils' usual rainmaking. But there is no discussing this Duke team without reiterating just how good they were on offense all season long. Rebounding and all, offense got the Dukies here. And then ...

Interior defense. Duke was probably a little underrated on the defensive side of the ball for much of the season. Maybe it was hard to see this team's defensive quality in comparison to that offensive juggernaut. Maybe it was because these Blue Devils didn't have a signature defender like the vintage Duke teams of the past. But this group finished the season with the No. 3 most efficient defense in the country, and it was interior defense that won the game for Duke on Monday night. Butler had, count 'em, 11 missed layups in its loss. Duke had seven blocks in its win. Zoubek, Kyle Singler, Lance Thomas and even the Plumlees made everything difficult for Butler when it got into the paint, which helped lead to an eight-minute stretch in the second half when Butler was held without a field goal.

Brian Zoubek. Two questions: Does Duke win this national title without Zoubek? And, four months ago, if I had told you that I'd be writing that question from deep within the bowels of Lucas Oil Stadium on April 5, would you have believed me? No and no. But it's true: Zoubek's sudden transformation from a disappointing, lumbering big man into an interior terror -- especially on the offensive glass -- turned Duke from a good team with a vague chance of postseason success into a thoroughly dominating one. Zoubek did it again Monday night. He grabbed six offensive rebounds in the game, four of which came at key moments in the second half. Zoubek gave the Dukies the kind of size and interior presence most programs only dream of, the kind of ability he promised when he first arrived in Durham. Four years and two foot surgeries later, Zoubek just made me write the first two questions in this paragraph. Here's a third: How crazy is that?

Of course the big three of Singler, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith deserve most of the credit; they provided the backbone for what this team would accomplish. But Zoubek was the X-factor. He made Duke a different team. He rewrote his story -- and his team's -- in the process.

"It means a lot to me," Zoubek said. "It's really hard to imagine being in this position when you spend two summers on crutches. People told me to keep fighting. It's hard to believe sometimes that good things are going to happen."

They did.

OK, so Duke's story doesn't have the appeal of Butler's. But whose does? Coach K's right. This team -- and its story -- were pretty darn good, too.

INDIANAPOLIS -- In "Hoosiers," Jimmy Chitwood made the winning shot at the buzzer, lifting fictitious Hickory High School to an improbable Indiana state championship.

Butler star Gordon Hayward's half-court heave didn't go in at the end of Monday night's 61-59 loss to Duke in the NCAA tournament championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. But his shot came so close to falling through the net that thousands of Bulldogs fans might have blown the roof off Hinkle Fieldhouse on the Butler campus.

Hinkle was the set for Chitwood's make-believe shot in "Hoosiers," and it's the home gym of Hayward, who came within about a half-inch of making the biggest shot in college basketball history.

If Hayward's shot had fallen through the net, kids around the country would be shouting "Butler," instead of "Hickory," every time they walked into a gym.

"I definitely thought it was going in," said Butler fan Josh Hartke of Fort Wayne, Ind. "It looked good the whole way."

When Hayward's half-court shot bounced off the rim, a crowd of about 8,000 fans which gathered here to watch the game on four large projection TVs, let out a collective groan of agony. But only a few seconds later, the fans gave the Bulldogs a much-deserved standing ovation.

The underdog team from the school of 4,200 students, which sits near the Broad Ripple Village section of Indianapolis, nearly pulled off one of the most improbable victories in NCAA tournament history on Monday night.

And that was definitely something worth cheering for.

Somewhere in this historic building, someone pushed a button to play Queen's iconic song, "We Are The Champions" as soon as the game ended.

The Butler fans sang along for several minutes, and they weren't singing about the Blue Devils, who won their fourth national championship.

"It was a great game," Hartke said. "When you thought they were down and out, they came right back."

Butler didn't look pretty for most of the second half, going nearly eight minutes without making a field goal, but it never stopped the Bulldogs fans here from believing their team would win. Even after the Bulldogs fell behind 60-55 with 3:16 to go, the crowd loudly chanted, "Defense! Defense!"

And after Butler junior Matt Howard scored two layups to cut Duke's lead to 60-59 with 55 seconds left, there wasn't a rear in a seat in the building. When the ball bounced out of bounds off Duke center's Brian Zoubek's foot with about 13 seconds to play, the place went delirious.

After a couple of timeouts, Hayward took the ball near the top of the key, dribbled behind his back and drove toward the baseline. But Hayward's shot was too strong, and Zoubek grabbed the rebound and was fouled. Zoubek intentionally missed the second foul shot, setting up Hayward's last-second heave.

The Bulldogs might have lost the game, but their fans believe they won much more during their improbable run to the Final Four. Butler became the first team since UCLA in 1972 to play in the Final Four in its hometown.

"It's been amazing, especially for the Butler community," said Hartke, whose wife, Anne, graduated from the school. "It's brought school spirit up beyond what it was before."

Matt Armwood, a pharmacy student from Land O' Lakes, Fla., wasn't happy with the final score, but he was pretty proud of the team representing his school.

"It was close," Armwood said. "The last month has been pretty exciting. Everyone has been totally blue."

John Thompson, a Butler fan from Southport, Ind., was confident the Bulldogs would be back in the Final Four soon.

"We almost toppled the giant," Thompson said. "They can't call us 'David' anymore. We're legit."

INDIANAPOLIS -- Have you caught your breath yet?

One way or the other, Butler's improbable run to the NCAA title game was going to come to an end on Monday night in Lucas Oil Stadium. But who could have thought it would end in such incredible fashion? In whose wildest imaginations did this game play out like this? It was the first title game decided by two points or less since 1989. It was a classic. An utter classic. I'll never forget it. Here's why:

HOW THE GAME WAS WON: In a game that promised to be won on Butler's defensive end, where each team's strength would meet, it ended up being Duke's defense that won the day. The Blue Devils were smothering in the second half, slowing down a Butler team that began the game at a torrid pace. Duke did the two most important things when it needed them most: 1) Kept Gordon Hayward in check, and 2) Kept Butler from getting any good looks on the interior. Butler went almost eight minutes in the second half without a bucket, while Duke finished with seven blocks and many more changed shots.

TURNING POINT: Gordon Hayward had two chances to win it, the first of which (when Hayward had the ball at the top of the key with 12 seconds left) was much better than the second (a half-court heave at the buzzer that missed by about three inches). The first was the game's capital-M Moment. Here was Butler's best player on the biggest stage of his life with the ball in his hands and a chance to win the game. He crossed over, dribbled right, met a second defender, stepped back, rose, shot ... and missed. Brian Zoubek rebounded the ball, and with no timeouts left, Butler had to hurry and grab the rebound on the second free throw and heave a half-courter as the buzzer sounded.

There's a reason Butler kept being mentioned in the same breath as "Hoosiers" -- even as grumpy sports writers complained about the comparison -- everything about its run mirrored the things we love about amateur basketball. It literally was the stuff of movies, even if Butler wasn't quite the underdog everyone seemed to think. But it didn't have a movie ending. Quite the opposite.

(Unless that movie is "Little Big League" or "Friday Night Lights." You get the point.)

TURNING POINT II: When Butler couldn't inbound the ball the first time with 13 seconds left, instead having to use its final timeout. With that timeout, maybe the Bulldogs get a better shot in the final seconds. Maybe not. But it couldn't have hurt.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Kyle Singler -- 19 points, nine rebounds, three blocks, two assists. Singler was huge. Every time the Devils seemed to need a big shot, he made it. His defense on Hayward was effective. His block on Shelvin Mack in the final minutes saved a basket. Singler arrived in Durham three years ago with as much hype as any Duke recruit in a long time. Monday night, he fulfilled it.

STAT OF THE GAME: 61 points. It's the first time a Butler opponent has broken the 60-point barrier all tournament. It barely happened, and it came at the most inopportune of times.

STAT OF THE GAME II: Seven blocks. The Bulldogs didn't commit many turnovers, and though they didn't shoot particularly well, their 34.5 percent shooting had less to do with an off night than it had to do with Duke's defense. Comparing each team's box scores, blocks -- seven for Duke, zero for Butler -- sticks out. Duke managed to collect itself on the offensive boards in the second half, grabbing eight by the time the game finished. Zoubek, naturally, had six.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Quick thoughts with Duke ahead 53-49 over Butler with 7:58 left in the game.

• Kyle Singler is playing an MVP type of game with his ability to make big shots and come up with key defensive stops.

• Butler gambled and went small and it cost the Bulldogs on an inbouds play that Singler converted, using his size advantage. There have been some odd matchups like Willie Veasley on Brian Zoubek.

• Butler is in jeopardy of losing control here. Butler has been forcing turnovers and coming up with stops, but hasn’t finished consistently.

• Hard to see Butler winning if Gordon Hayward can’t make a few big shots. He is driving to to the basket, but that’s not enough.

• Duke is earning every bucket, but the Blue Devils’ offense has been enough to stretch out a lead.

INDIANAPOLIS -- What a half. It's 33-32 Duke, and it's lived up to every bit of hype. Here's some instant analysis of how we got here:

HOW THE HALF WAS WON: Halves this close aren't exactly won, per se, but both teams will be pleased with where they sit. If you had told the Blue Devils they'd shoot 30 percent from 3-point range and give up 12 -- yes, 12 -- offensive rebounds, they would gladly take a one-point lead at the half. Likewise, if you'd told Butler Ronald Nored and Matt Howard would play a combined 16 minutes, and that Duke would score 33 points, they would happily accept a one-point deficit. Truth is, this was a great half, and this game could go either way in the second.

TURNING POINT: With about five minutes remaining, Duke had opened up a 26-20 lead and looked to be pulling away from the hobbled Bulldogs. Then Avery Jukes -- yes, Avery Jukes -- made a deep two-point jumper followed by a 3, to bring the Bulldogs back.

PLAYER OF THE HALF: Avery Jukes. Jukes's career high? 10 points. His point total in the first half? 10. Jukes apparently has 3-point range, which he flashed in the first half, keeping the Bulldogs in the game at a crucial juncture and more than making up for Matt Howard's absence.

PLAYER OF THE HALF II: Nolan Smith. Smith has done what Nolan Smith does. Hit 3s, play solid defense, and play a brilliant little two-man game with Jon Scheyer. Honorable mention goes to Kyle Singler, whose aggressive offense has resulted in buckets at key moments throughout the half.

STAT OF THE HALF: Offensive rebounds -- Butler is usually content to let its missed shots go, opting out of crashing the boards in favor of setting up a half court defense that's been its calling card throughout the NCAA tournament. Not tonight. The Bulldogs have had Howard in for much longer than usual -- Howard took until the 8:33 mark to pick up his customary second foul -- and Butler crashed the glass and picked up six offensive rebounds in that time frame.

WHAT DUKE NEEDS TO DO TO WIN: Get the ball inside. Whether it's on the dribble, in post entries to Brian Zoubek (who's actually flashed a bit of back-to-the-basket game in the first half) or through offensive rebounds, Butler has thus far been very good guarding the Blue Devils on the perimeter. Once inside, Butler can't match up.

WHAT BUTLER NEEDS TO DO TO WIN: Avoid further foul trouble. Nored has to stay on the floor. He's the best defender the Bulldogs have, and without him, it's far too easy for Scheyer and Nolan Smith to work that devastating, telepathic two-man game. His penetration also crucial on the offensive end. Likewise, Matt Howard has to find a way to keep from picking up his third and fourth fouls. Even he does, Brad Stevens might consider ditching convention and keeping him in the game. The Blue Devils are too big for Howard to spend so much time on the bench.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Quick thoughts at the half.

• Tremendous. Loved it. I was hoping we would have a first half just like that.

• What I loved was seeing players like Avery Jukes that weren’t supposed to shine, come out of nowhere to be a major factor. Who had Jukes making two 3s? Jukes led the Bulldogs with 10 points. No way did anyone have that on the early scorecard.

• Zach Hahn played sensational off the bench as he distributed, came up with a deflection and had great stage presence.

• Duke's big three had their moments as expected, with Kyle Singler scoring nine points by making big buckets at the right times. Nolan Smith, as he has all season, bailed out a few possessions, and Jon Scheyer scored in the mid-range.

• The Bulldogs were down one at the half and Gordon Hayward scored only four points and was 2-of-7. He did have seven rebounds, though.

• No one had Butler getting 12 offensive rebounds with Duke having only three and outrebounding Duke 24-17.

• The crowd has been sensational so far. Just hope they can stay in the game and we get a final-possession-type affair.

• Butler has to believe now it can win.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Quick thoughts from the first half of Duke-Butler.

• Butler held a 20-18 lead with 7:54 left in the first half.

• The crowd is pro-Butler, much more so than Saturday night. So far I’d give this an A for atmosphere. It has lived up to the hype of having a homecourt advantage.

• Both teams are playing defense at a high level. You can’t fault the defense when Kyle Singler and Zach Hahn make deep 3-pointers.

• Love how aggressive Matt Howard was in trying to score, draw fouls and get rebounds. But he really struggled to finish at the hoop and at the free-throw line.

• Shelvin Mack is one of the elite guards in the country. We should have all seen that when he played for a gold medal last summer for the Under-19 USA team. Mack took over the game for a few possessions to rescue Butler from getting too far behind.

• Gordon Hayward has struggled to find his shot early, but that’s OK considering the surprise points from Hahn and Shawn Vanzant.

• Lance Thomas got into early foul trouble with two. That’s OK since Duke’s depth inside is its best.

• We can only hope it stays close for the final 32 minutes.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Ready for the mother of all cliches? OK then: It all comes down to this. The Duke Blue Devils. The Butler Bulldogs. Milan High vs. South Bend Central. Rocky vs. Apollo Creed. Rocky vs. Ivan Drago. Rocky vs. pretty much everyone; Rocky was usually the underdog. You get the point. Every plausible thing that can be written about this game has been -- the implications for mid-majors, the underdog tale, Duke's return to the elite, all of it. At this point, there's not much left to say. There is only the game. It's time. Assume intense, game-face stare ... now.

If you need to get caught up in the few minutes before the game, we've got you covered. Read our quick roundtable preview. Listen to Sunday night's podcast previewing the match up. Check out the 10 things you should watch for tonight. Scope Jay Bilas' preview . Read Pat Forde on the great upsets in title game history. Get Mark Schlabach's moving story on Ronald Nored's family here in Indy. Read Andy Katz on Shelvin Mack. Check out Dana O'Neil's story on Brian Zoubek's senior redemption.

And, as always, come join our live chat right here, where we'll be answering questions, taking your comments, and analyzing as the championship game unfolds.

We're about 30 minutes away from the start of game time, so hop on into the chat and let's get this thing started. Big night, folks. Big night.