ESPN Men's Basketball

Here are Joe Lunardi's latest projections through Saturday. Check back Sunday morning for Joe's updated bracket.

TOP SEED ORDER

Kentucky
Syracuse
North Carolina
Kansas

Next in line (in order): Michigan State, Ohio State, Missouri, Duke

LAST FOUR IN

South Florida
North Carolina State
Seton Hall
Mississippi State

FIRST FOUR OUT

Washington
Drexel
Iona
Miami (Fla.)

NEXT TWO OUT

Ole Miss
Arizona

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Colorado (Pac-12)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lamar (Southland)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Long Beach State (Big West)
Louisville (Big East)
Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
Memphis (Conference USA)
Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)
Missouri (Big 12)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
New Mexico (Mountain West)
New Mexico State (WAC)
Norfolk State (MEAC)
Ohio (MAC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
Vermont (America East)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Joe Lunardi believes California and Colorado will be only teams from the Pac-12 to make NCAA tournament.

Here are Joe Lunardi's latest projections as of 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Check back throughout the night for updates.

SINCE THE LAST UPDATE

• St. Bonaventure in position to “steal” a bid in Sunday's Atlantic 10 title game.
• Arizona falls to “Next Two Out” list with loss to Colorado in Pac-12 title game.
• Overall bubble shrinks to 11 teams for five spots.

TOP SEED ORDER

Kentucky
Syracuse
North Carolina
Kansas

Next in line (in order): Michigan State, Ohio State, Missouri, Duke

LAST FOUR IN

South Florida
North Carolina State
Seton Hall
Mississippi State

FIRST FOUR OUT

Washington
Drexel
Iona
Miami (Fla.)

NEXT TWO OUT

Ole Miss
Arizona

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
Memphis (Conference USA)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
Norfolk State (MEAC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
Vermont (America East)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Here are Joe Lunardi's latest projections as of 4:25 p.m. ET on Saturday. Check back throughout the day for updates.

SINCE THE LAST UPDATE

• NC State remains in the same spot despite loss to North Carolina.
• Marshall drops to "Next Four Out" after blowout loss at Memphis.
• Massachusetts falls off bubble entirely after A-10 semis loss to St. Bonaventure.
• Overall bubble down to 17 teams for nine spots.

TOP SEED ORDER

Kentucky
Syracuse
North Carolina
Kansas

Next in line: Duke, Michigan State, Ohio State, Missouri

LAST FOUR IN

Texas
North Carolina State
Mississippi State
Seton Hall

FIRST FOUR OUT

Washington
Drexel
Miami
Iona

NEXT FOUR OUT

Ole Miss
Marshall
Colorado
Nevada

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
Memphis (Conference USA)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
Norfolk State (MEAC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
Vermont (America East)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Here are Joe Lunardi's latest projections through Friday night. Check back Saturday for his full bracket.

SINCE THE LAST UPDATE

• Louisville becomes a top-four seed by advancing to the Big East title game.
• Dayton drops off the bubble with a loss to Xavier in the A-10 quarterfinals.
• No change for Miami or Texas.
• Colorado moves into the Next Four Out by beating Cal and advancing to the Pac-12 title game.

TOP SEED ORDER

Kentucky
Syracuse
North Carolina
Kansas

Next in line: Duke, Michigan State, Ohio State, Missouri

LAST FOUR IN

Washington
NC State
Mississippi State
Seton Hall

FIRST FOUR OUT

Drexel
Miami
Marshall
Iona

NEXT FOUR OUT

Ole Miss
Arizona
Massachusetts
Colorado

Also considered: Northwestern, Tennessee

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Colonial (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Here are Joe Lunardi's latest projections as of Friday at 10:45 p.m. ET. Check back later tonight for another update.

SINCE THE LAST UPDATE

• With Syracuse loss, Kentucky clinches No. 1 overall. Syracuse locked as No. 2 overall for final bracket.
• Kansas drops to No. 4 overall, opening door for a Big Ten No. 1 seed between Michigan State and Ohio State.
• Marshall up to First Four Out, in part because of a December victory at Cincinnati.
• Crushing overtime loss for Tennessee; Ole Miss keeps slim hopes alive.

TOP SEED ORDER

Kentucky
Syracuse
North Carolina
Kansas

LAST FOUR IN

Washington
NC State
Mississippi State
Seton Hall

FIRST FOUR OUT

Drexel
Miami (Fla.)
Marshall
Iona

NEXT FOUR OUT

Ole Miss
Northwestern
Arizona
Dayton

Also considered: Massachusetts, Tennessee

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Colonial (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Here are Joe Lunardi's latest projections through Friday afternoon's games. Check back later tonight for another update.

SINCE THE LAST UPDATE

• NC State into field with win over Virginia.
• Drexel drops out of field onto First Four Out.
• Saint Joseph’s off the bubble with a loss to St. Bonaventure.
• Overall bubble shrinks to 19 teams for 9 spots.

LAST FOUR IN

Washington
NC State
Mississippi State
Seton Hall

FIRST FOUR OUT

Drexel
Tennessee
Miami (Fla.)
Northwestern

NEXT FOUR OUT

Iona
Arizona
Massachusetts
Dayton

Also considered: Marshall, Ole Miss

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Colonial (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Check back Friday morning for Joe Lunardi's full bracket, but here are his basic projections through Thursday night's action.

SINCE THE LAST UPDATE

• Texas moves above “Last Four In” (No. 47 overall) with its victory over Iowa State.
• Mississippi State drops to “Last Four In” with its loss to Georgia.
• South Florida stays in the field (No. 46 overall) despite its loss to Notre Dame.
• Oregon moves from "First Four Out" to the last spot on "Next Four Out."

LAST FOUR IN

Washington
Mississippi State
Drexel
Seton Hall

FIRST FOUR OUT

Tennessee
Northwestern
NC State
Miami (Fla.)

NEXT FOUR OUT

Iona
Arizona
Saint Joseph's
Oregon

Also considered: Dayton, Marshall, Ole Miss

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Colonial (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Check back for another update later in the night, but here is Joe Lunardi's projections as of 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday.

LAST FOUR IN

Washington
Drexel
Texas
Seton Hall

FIRST FOUR OUT

Tennessee
Oregon
Northwestern
NC State

NEXT FOUR OUT

Miami (Fla.)
Iona
Arizona
Saint Joseph's

Also considered: Dayton, Marshall, Oral Roberts, Ole Miss

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Colonial (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Check back Thursday morning for Joe Lunardi's full bracket, but for now, here are his updated main components after Wednesday's action:

NOTABLE

• In the Big East, South Florida stays put after beating Villanova. Seton Hall slides out after losing to Louisville and is replaced by Texas.
• Added to the NCAA tournament field: Lehigh (Patriot), LIU Brooklyn (NEC) and Montana (Big Sky).
• Top seeds Bucknell and Savannah State become NIT auto-qualifiers after losing conference tournament games.

LAST FOUR IN

Northwestern
Drexel
Xavier
Texas

FIRST FOUR OUT

Seton Hall
Tennessee
Oregon
NC State

NEXT FOUR OUT

Miami (Fla.)
Iona
Arizona
Saint Joseph's

Also considered: Dayton, Oral Roberts, Marshall, Ole Miss

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (9)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Colonial (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Loyola-Md (MAAC)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Check back Tuesday morning for Joe Lunardi's full bracket, but for now, here are his updated main components after Monday night's four conference title games:

NOTABLE

• After losing to VCU in the CAA final, Drexel stays in the field for now.
• As a result, Texas slips out of the projected field.
• After losing to Western Illinois, Oral Roberts is replaced by South Dakota State in the Summit League. ORU is a fringe bubble team at best (No. 78 on the S-curve).

LAST FOUR IN

Northwestern
Seton Hall
Drexel
Xavier

FIRST FOUR OUT

Texas
Tennessee
Oregon
NC State

NEXT FOUR OUT

Miami (Fla.)
Iona
Arizona
Saint Joseph's

Also considered: Dayton, Marshall, Ole Miss

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (5)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
CAA (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Loyola-Md (MAAC)
Murray State (OVC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
VCU (Colonial)

Before Monday's full bracket is released, here's a sneak peek at the basics of Bracketology with Sunday's bubble-impact games now in the books.

NOTABLE

• Arizona drops out of field with loss at Arizona State.
• Texas moves back into field as the last team in.
• With Cal’s loss at Stanford, Washington clinches Pac-12 regular-season title.
• Middle Tennessee falls out of field with loss to Arkansas State in Sun Belt tourney and is a fringe bubble team.

Last Four In
Northwestern
Seton Hall
Xavier
Texas

First Four Out
Tennessee
VCU
Oregon
NC State

Next Four Out
Miami (Fla.)
Iona
Arizona
Saint Joseph's

Also considered: Dayton, Marshall, Ole Miss, Middle Tennessee

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

NCAA AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Murray State (Ohio Valley)
UNC Asheville (Big South)

Editor’s note: This update does not include BYU-Gonzaga in the WCC tournament.

NOTABLE

• North Carolina moves up to top line as projected No. 1 seed.
• Belmont (Atlantic Sun) clinches fifth NCAA bid in seven years.
• Texas falls out of field, replaced by Xavier (“Last Team In”).

Last Four In
Xavier
Northwestern
South Florida
Colorado State

First Four Out
Texas
VCU
Oregon
NC State

Next Four Out
Miami
Tennessee
Saint Joseph’s
Dayton

BRACKET MATH

Take the “solid” at-large candidates (current Tournament Odds at 90% or better) and there are now 34 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that’s another 20 spots. All told there are 54 of the 68 spots accounted for, with 14 still up for grabs among current “Bubble” teams.

S-CURVE PROJECTIONS

1-KENTUCKY 2-SYRACUSE 3-KANSAS 4-NO. CAROLINA
8-Ohio State 7-Missouri 6-Duke 5-Michigan State*
9-Marquette 10-Georgetown 11-Baylor 12-Michigan
16-UNLV 15-Florida 14-Indiana 13-Wisconsin
17-Louisville 18-Wichita State 19-Florida State 20-TEMPLE
24-CREIGHTON 23-Notre Dame 22-Murray State 21-Vanderbilt
25-Gonzaga 26-New Mexico 27- San Diego State* 28-MEMPHIS
32-Purdue 31-Kansas State 30-Iowa State 29-SAINT MARY’S
33-Alabama 34-Cincinnati 35-Virginia 36-Southern Miss
40-Connecticut 39-Washington* 38-California 37-Saint Louis
41-West Virginia 42-Seton Hall 43-Harvard* 44-LONG BEACH STATE
48-Colorado State 47-Mississippi State 46-Brigham Young 45-Arizona
49-South Florida 50-Northwestern 51-Xavier 52-IONA
56-NEVADA 55-ORAL ROBERTS 54-DREXEL 53-MIDDLE TENNNESSEE
57-Belmont 58-DAVIDSON 59-AKRON 60-VALPARAISO
64-UNC Asheville 63-UT ARLINGTON 62-MONTANA 61-BUCKNELL
65-LONG ISLAND 66-STONY BROOK 67-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 68-SAVANNAH STATE
72-NC State 71-Oregon 70-VCU 69-Texas
73-Miami (Fla.) 74-Saint Joseph’s 75-Dayton 76-Tennessee

Bold - automatic qualifier; * - current conference leader.
ALL CAPS: Regular-season champion (NIT auto-bid if needed)

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (5)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
Pac-12 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)

NCAA AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

UNC Asheville (Big South)
Murray State (Ohio Valley Conference)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

After several crucial bubble games Wednesday night, here's Joe Lunardi's brief update to Bracketology:

NOTABLE
-- Mississippi State, South Florida and Texas stay in field with wins
-- Northwestern remains “last team in” despite loss
-- Colorado State (in) and Miami (out) trade places on bubble
-- Temple clinches A-10 regular-season title

LAST FOUR IN
South Florida
Texas
Colorado State
Northwestern

FIRST FOUR OUT
Xavier
VCU
NC State
Miami

NEXT FOUR OUT
Oregon
Colorado
Saint Joseph's
Dayton

Also considered: Illinois, New Mexico State, UCF

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Pac-12 (3)
West Coast (3)
Atlantic 10 (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)