ESPN Men's Basketball

Editor’s note: Each week, ESPN.com writers will debate a topic of interest in the college basketball landscape. Today’s topic: Which teams are garnering too much (and possibly unwarranted) preseason buzz? Which teams aren’t receiving enough? For the former, click here to see the selections of Eamonn Brennan and Dana O'Neill.

Jason King: Missouri

I’ve seen a few preseason college basketball polls that have Missouri somewhere between No. 20 and 25. But in the majority of them, the Tigers aren’t ranked at all.

I don’t understand it.

This is a team that returns a Cousy Award finalist (Phil Pressey), the national sixth man of the year (Michael Dixon) and a forward (Laurence Bowers) who averaged 11.6 points and 6.1 rebounds two seasons ago before missing 2011-12 with a knee injury. That’s a solid trio -- and those guys may not even be the best players on the team.

Since Frank Haith’s arrival last offseason, Missouri has become a home for transfers seeking a fresh start after things didn’t work out at their initial stop. Some folks are referring to Mizzou as Transfer U. The label is fair. As many as four transfers are expected to either start or play major roles for the Tigers.

What’s interesting is that these aren’t your average, run-of-the-mill transfers. Forward Alex Oriakhi started on Connecticut’s 2011 NCAA championship team. And the other three were the best players on their respective rosters before deciding to take their talents elsewhere.

Guard Earnest Ross averaged a team-high 13.1 points for Auburn two years ago. Keion Bell, who is also a guard, scored 18.9 points per game for Pepperdine in 2010-11 before electing to leave. Sharpshooter Jabari Brown -- a consensus top-20 recruit -- earned a starting spot in Oregon’s lineup last season but quit the team after two games.

Bottom line: We know all of these guys can play because they’ve all proven it. The one exception is Brown, but he’s the most highly touted of the four. Brown, Bell and Ross practiced with the Tigers throughout last season, so it’s not as if they won’t be used to Haith’s schemes and coaching style. Oriakhi doesn’t arrive on campus until this summer, but the senior veteran should adapt quickly.

Along with its speed, quickness and prowess from long range, Missouri’s biggest attribute last season was its chemistry. Not many teams in the country operated as a unit quite like Mizzou. That cohesion will be hard to match in 2012-13.

Still, to me, this team is too talented -- and its players are too proven -- to leave the Tigers out of the top 15.

Myron Medcalf: Arizona

Where’s the love for Arizona?

If we’re going to hype Kentucky and UCLA based on their impressive fleets of incoming freshmen, then we should boost Arizona, too.

The Wildcats will depend on highly touted freshmen next season. Just like Kentucky. Just like UCLA.

But Sean Miller’s program hasn’t received a comparable slice of buzz, even though he had the top-ranked recruiting class in 2012 prior to signing day. And the Wildcats could end up with the Pac-12 crown next season.

Yes, Josiah Turner is gone. But Solomon Hill and Nick Johnson are back. A healthy Kevin Parrom should help, too.

But the veterans will be the backstory for next season’s talented bunch.

Miller has brought in the No. 3 recruiting class in America, according to ESPN.com. He has three five-star post players that could make an immediate impact -- not to mention recent transfer Mark Lyons, who is available to play right away after graduating from Xavier. He averaged 15.1 ppg last season and can be a major contributor if he keeps his head on straight.

As for the freshmen, Kaleb Tarczewski, a skilled 7-footer, and power forward Grant Jerrett are top-10 prospects. Brandon Ashley is a 6-8 forward with finesse. He’s top-20.

I watched Ashley ball on the summer circuit last year. Hard to imagine he’s the third-rated prospect in any class. Gabe York is also a talented young wing.

The Bruins’ youngsters will snatch the preseason headlines that precede the 2012-13 campaign. But by the end of the year, we’ll be talking about Arizona’s freshman leaders, too.

I just think Zona is a stacked young team, and that obviously carries weight following Kentucky’s run to the national title.

The greatest concern for a UA squad that imploded last season will be chemistry. Will the first-year guys blend with the veterans? That will be the most crucial component of the 2012-13 season for the Wildcats.

But again, John Calipari and Ben Howland will have the same challenge next season.

They’re all going to rely on skilled freshmen.

And if that’s the formula, then the Wildcats deserve far more buzz for their potential to disrupt the national scene next year.

Really, the move made perfect sense.

Arizona coach Sean Miller knows Xavier guard Mark Lyons well; Miller and his former Musketeers staff recruited Lyons at Xavier. Miller needs a point guard, now that Josiah Turner has officially flamed out and left to play for Larry Brown at SMU. Lyons needed a place that needed a point guard; he knows any hope he has of a pro career depends on it. Lyons visited Tucson, met with Miller and his staff, and the deal was sealed: Lyons would use his graduate transfer exemption to join the Arizona Wildcats in 2012-13. There was nothing surprising about this development. Suspense sold separately.

And yet, for as much sense as it makes, I can't help but think the move carries its fair share of risk, too.

Not that Lyons isn't saying the right things. He hit all the notes in a Sunday interview with the Arizona Daily Star:

"I knew I wanted to be at Arizona, but I had to make sure I gave it a fair shot," Lyons said. "That was the great thing about me coming out here. … It was a great, great place. They showed me everything and I know what I'm getting in the coaches and the program. I'm going to come there and just try to win."

"Those are some good guys. They are all about winning," Lyons said. "They welcomed me with open arms. [...] Whatever they want me to do, I'm going to do it. I've been to the Sweet 16 three times, and (UA coaches) want to go to the Final Four. That's what I'm going to try to get myself ready for."

The only problem is that this hasn't always been Lyons' M.O., which, when you read Xavier coach Chris Mack's statement on Lyons' transfer in April, was abundantly clear. That statement:

"After our end of the season meeting with Mark it became apparent that a change for both parties was the right thing moving forward," said Mack. "During our meeting expectations were outlined for his fifth and final season, areas in which I believe needed improvement. Mark did not recognize these expectations as being important and ultimately it was decided that a change of scenery would be in his best interest. I wish Mark well."

Lyons has never acknowledged these "areas" in which his coach believed he needed to improve. In fact, he hasn't even mentioned them. Instead, Lyons has maintained his transfer is all about his career trajectory and his hope to make it to the NBA as a ballhandling, scoring point guard. "I’m looking for a program that wins where I could play a major role,” Lyons told the Cincinnati Enquier's Shannon Russell, at which point one had to ask: Doesn't Xavier fit that criteria? And if so, why transfer?

The truth is, problems between Lyons and his coach came to a head often in 2012. When I saw them lose to Gonzaga on New Year's Eve this past winter, Lyons fired more than his fair share of bad shots, much to his coach's occasionally animated dismay. The offensive struggles Xavier experienced before their late-season Sweet 16 run had as much to do with freelancing, disjointed, and even selfish offense -- not just by Lyons, but, yes, often by him -- as it did any hangover from the Musketeers' infamous Dec. 10 brawl with Cincinnati.

All of which may not matter at Arizona. Miller is not the kind of coach to let star players, self-appointed or otherwise, dictate their own terms. And it may be that Lyons' experience and ability outweigh any supposed personality flaws. But that experience cuts both ways. Miller's 2012-13 Wildcats -- the product of a truly great, No. 3-ranked recruiting class -- will be a young, developing team throughout the season. It is not difficult for young teams to fall into bad habits. Will Lyons' strong personality dictate that trajectory? Will he be able to take a complementary role when younger and more talented, but less experienced, players shine? Or will he be characteristically concerned with his shots and numbers, his future career -- the impetus for his transfer in the first place -- to the detriment of himself and the team?

Those are the key questions Lyons will have to answer in his one-year stay at Arizona. The move made so much sense for a reason: If it pays off, everyone, especially Arizona and Lyons, wins.

And so the decision was easy. Yet there is reason to believe the road ahead, as promising as it looks on paper, could be more difficult.

Update, 4:25 p.m. ET: Xavier has made it official, announcing via a release that Lyons will not be returning to the program for his senior season.

“After our end of the season meeting with Mark it became apparent that a change for both parties was the right thing moving forward,” Mack said in the release. “During our meeting expectations were outlined for his fifth and final season, areas in which I believe needed improvement. Mark did not recognize these expectations as being important and ultimately it was decided that a change of scenery would be in his best interest. I wish Mark well.”

Original post is below.

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Where will Mark Lyons play the final year of his collegiate basketball career? According to Lyons, at least, the answer appears to be fluid.

On Sunday, CBS Sports reported that Lyons wasn't returning to Xavier for his senior season, a decision reportedly reached after Lyons and Xavier coach Chris Mack met late last week and "determined that it would be best for Lyons' career at Xavier to come to a conclusion." This was a rather bold turn, considering Lyons was Xavier's second-leading scorer in 2012, and would be the team's most experienced and most important returning factor in 2012-13.

And apparently Lyons didn't get the memo. On Sunday night, the guard told the Cincinnati Enquirer that he was "surprised by the report." On Monday morning, as speculation that Lyons could continue his career at Arizona reached something of a fever pitch, the mixed signals continued. Lyons told the Arizona Daily Star that he "has not decided whether to leave the Musketeers but 'definitely' has looked into the possibility of transferring to Arizona." From the Daily Star:

“I love Coach [Sean] Miller and the whole coaching staff there, so if I decided to leave, I definitely would look at Arizona,” Lyons told the Star. “I definitely would.”

Which is all well and good, especially if you're an Arizona fan. The connection (former XU coach Sean Miller recruited Lyons to Xavier in the first place) is natural and obvious, and Lyons is clearly hoping to prove himself as a point guard in his senior season. The rigors of his long-shot NBA chances downright demand it.

Except for just one thing: Lyons still hasn't left Xavier. Again from the Daily Star:

“They definitely wanted me back and me and Coach [Chris Mack] had a meeting about it,” Lyons said. “But I’ve gotta think about what‘s best for me and my family so I’m trying to decide." Lyons said he isn’t sure when he will make a decision.

“I still don’t know what I’m going to do yet,” Lyons said. “I’m trying to graduate. I was thinking about it, and the word got out that I was thinking about it, and they ran with it.”

If Lyons decides to stay, he will clearly have much to work out with his current coach, especially if he plans to play point guard for the Musketeers. Lyons has never been a particularly assist-oriented player, and his affinity for bad shots was evident throughout Xavier's struggles this season, at least before the Musketeers made their late-season charge through the A-10 tournament and their unlikely Sweet 16 run. Despite that, Lyons would be a big-time transfer commodity if he does decide to leave, and his skill set and experience would surely be welcomed at a score of programs, perhaps most of all Arizona.

So there you have it: Lyons may stay at Xavier. He may leave for Arizona; he may land somewhere else entirely. Whatever he does, he wants to play point guard. And right now, even he doesn't seem sure of his destination.

In other words: Stay tuned.

Arizona freshman point guard Josiah Turner arrived at the school under a heap of hype. He was the No. 15-ranked player in the country, and the No. 3-ranked point guard (behind only Kentucky's Marquis Teague and Texas' Myck Kabongo), and he and fellow touted recruit Nick Johnson were supposed to fill the void -- in so far as the void was fillable -- left behind when forward Derrick Williams took his immense talents to the NBA. At the very least, Turner was the Wildcats' point guard, and likely star, of the future. That much seemed certain.

A year later, very little about Turner seems certain. Turner was largely unproductive in his freshman campaign, and that's when he was on the court; just as often, Arizona coach Sean Miller was benching or suspending Turner for one team rules violation or another. Turner started 16 of the Wildcats' final 17 regular-season games -- a sign of progress -- before Miller suspended him again, this time indefinitely, leaving Turner behind despite the Wildcats' need to win the Pac-12 tournament for an automatic NCAA tourney bid. Turner stayed home, Arizona didn't make the NCAA tournament -- there is some degree of causation in there -- and the freshman's once-promising Arizona career now appears fully in doubt.

Which is why Arizona's news of the day is resoundingly good. On Tuesday, former Duquesne point guard T.J. McConnell announced he would transfer to Tucson for the remaining two years of his career, which will begin in 2013-14 after the customary one-year transfer purgatory, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported Tuesday.

Why is this such good news? Because Turner's future is just about the only uncertain part of Arizona's next two seasons. Miller has landed a talent-packed 2012 class, featuring four ESPNU top 100 players, three of which -- center Kaleb Tarczewski and power forwards Grant Jerrett and Brandon Ashley -- are five-star talents ranked among the top three players at their respective positions. Combined with Johnson, the Wildcats will have one of the most talented teams in the country in 2012-13 and (depending on NBA defections or unforeseen circumstances) in 2013-14. The only thing missing is a quality point guard, at least right now. Which is where McConnell -- who averaged 11.4 points, 5.5 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game, with efficient shooting numbers, comes in.

McConnell won't be available right away, of course, and Arizona may still be better off seeing if it can get Turner to (ahem) turn his career around. But it's clear Miller is less concerned about a one-off growth year than he is a long-term shot at a national title -- which is exactly what he's rather rapidly built in Tucson.

Turner or no Turner, if the young Wildcats make a run in 2012-13, great. Wee! Fun! But 2013-14 is the season it all comes together. That's the plan, anyway.

LOS ANGELES -- Colorado coach Tad Boyle wasn't ready to sleep at 1:30 a.m. on Saturday morning. So less than 14 hours before playing in the Buffaloes' first conference tournament championship game since 1990, Boyle started text messaging.

“We dedicated this game to Cory Higgins, Levi Knutson, Marcus Relphorde, Trent Beckley, Javon Coney and Alec Burks.” Boyle said. “I texted them all at 1:30 in the morning, the six guys who were in that room [on Selection Sunday last year] who are no longer with us today, and told them that we are winning this for them.”

That dedication turned into delirium for the Buffaloes at Staples Center, as Colorado won't have to worry about any slights from the NCAA tournament selection committee this season. The Buffaloes clinched the Pac-12's automatic tournament berth with a 53-51 victory over Arizona, the first conference tournament title in program history.

Colorado (23-11) emerged victorious despite only scoring three points in the final 9:10. Its only field goal during that span came on a windmill dunk by Carlon Brown with 52.6 seconds left that provided the game-winning points. But for a program that hadn't made the tournament since 2003 -- falling on the wrong side of the bubble several times in the years since, including last season's disappointment -- holding on for dear life while milking a 50-38 lead down to the end was somewhat fitting.

“It was tough there at the end, but we knew that we had to make that last stop,” said forward Austin Dufault, who scored eight points and had seven key rebounds. “We've played great defense all year and I was hoping for one last stop.”

The Buffaloes got that last stop, as Nate Tomlinson harrassed Kyle Fogg's shot attempt, a long jumper at the buzzer that didn't come close to being good. That set off an uproarious celebration that was 365 days later than Colorado expected it to be.

“[Selection Sunday] last year was probably the worst experience in my life, at least as far as basketball is concerned,” Dufault said. “This one is probably the best. It feels so good right now, especially after what we went through last year.”

Brown didn't play on last season's team, as he sat out after transferring from Utah. But the pain of missing out on Selection Sunday was just as real to him. Having played in the tournament in 2009, when he was a sophomore with the Utes, he wanted to bring the rest of his teammates that experience.

“I told the guys at halftime that there's nothing better than winning a tournament championship and cutting down those nets and getting all this free gear,” Brown said. “On a serious note, I'm the only person that's been to the tournament. I know how it feels and I wanted these guys to feel it.”

Colorado did that with a workmanlike effort, especially defensively and on the glass. The Buffaloes outrebounded Arizona 35-23 -- with Andre Roberson notching his 19th double-double of the season and third of the tournament with 10 points and 11 rebounds. They held the Wildcats to 36.7 percent shooting, including 26.3 percent from the 3-point line. The Wildcats (23-11) missed all seven of their 3-point attempts in the second half.

“We have this drill in practice called the 'bubble drill' where we put a bubble over the basket for the last four to five minutes of the game,” Boyle said. “The only way you can win is to play defense and get stops. Our guys believe in that drill.”

The Buffaloes also believe in themselves, even if they were the only ones that held that belief for most of the season. After losing their top four scorers from last season, including an NBA lottery pick in Burks, the Buffaloes were picked to finish 11th in their new conference.

Turns out that the preseason prediction was 10 spots too low, at least in terms of the conference tournament. By winning four games in four days the Buffaloes now have a legion of believers that extends past their spirited student section, which stole the show in the Staples Center stands.

“The job that Tad Boyle has done at Colorado, and what Colorado represents for the future of the Pac-12, I can make the argument that there's been no greater gift to college basketball in the Pac-12 than adding Colorado,” Arizona coach Sean Miller said. “I wish them the best in the NCAA tournament. Whoever draws them is running into a hungry, well-coached, disciplined team.”

LOS ANGELES -- Reaction from Colorado's victory against Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament final.

Overview: Colorado is to the Pac-12 Conference this season what Jordan Knight, Jonathan Knight, Donnie Wahlberg, Joey McIntyre and Danny Wood were to the music industry in the early 1990s, as both sets of new kids moved to the top of the charts. The Buffaloes won the Pac-12 tournament title on Saturday at Staples Center, capping off a banner first season in the league and winning the first conference tournament title in school history. With the win, which wasn't clinched until Arizona guard Kyle Fogg's contested shot fell well short of the rim as the final buzzer sounded, No. 6-seeded Colorado qualifies for the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2003 and exorcises demons of having its bubble burst a year ago.

As for bubbles, Arizona's might have burst with the loss. Entering the Pac-12 tournament, the No. 4-seeded Wildcats were thought to be one of the teams that would fall just short of making the NCAA tournament, and it seems unlikely that wins against UCLA and Oregon State this weekend will be enough to get Arizona, which advanced to the Elite 8 a year ago, back to the big dance.

Turning point: The first eight minutes of the second half. A day after Arizona used a quick second-half start to overwhelm Oregon State, the Wildcats had the tables turned on them by Colorado on Saturday. The Buffaloes opened up the second half with a 17-8 run, expanding its 30-28 halftime lead to 47-36. Spencer Dinwiddie, who hit four 3-pointers en route to a team high 14 points, nailed a 3-pointer to put the Buffaloes up by double-digits.

Colorado led by as many as 12 in the second half, and needed every bit of the cushion that it established in the first eight minutes, as Arizona held the Buffaloes to only one field goal and three points over the final 9:10. The field goal, a dunk by Carlon Brown with 52.6 seconds left, provided the Buffs with the game-winning points, as Nate Tomlinson was able to force Fogg into a difficult game-tying attempt.

Key player: Dinwiddie got the Buffaloes going early, hitting three first-half 3-pointers, helping Colorado to its halftime lead. He finished with 14 points, one more than Brown and four more than Roberson, who compiled his 19th double-double of the season with 10 points and 11 rebounds. Fogg scored 12, leading the Wildcats.

Key stat: After being outrebounded by California in the semifinals, the Buffaloes crashed the boards against a strong Arizona team, outrebounding the Wildcats 37-29. Colorado held Arizona to 36.7 percent shooting, and only gave up five 3-pointers to the leading 3-point shooting team in the conference. The 3-point defense was especially effective in the second half, as Arizona misfired on all seven of its second-half attempts.

Miscellaneous: Saturday was Colorado's first conference championship game appearance since 1990, when it lost to Oklahoma in the Big 8 final. Meanwhile, the Wildcats made their seventh Pac-12 title appearance ... The Pac-12 tournament marked the first time the Buffaloes played on four consecutive days since turning the trick March 6-9, 1934 ... The Wildcats have the most Pac-12 tourney titles with four, but it's been 10 years since their last one.

What’s next: Besides a lot of celebration, the Buffaloes can sit back on Sunday knowing their NCAA ticket is punched, which is a rare feeling indeed for a program that has found itself sweating Selection Sunday more often than not. Arizona will have to sweat out its fate -- which most likely includes a trip to the NIT. But with what's considered the top recruiting class in the nation coming in next season, there will be better days ahead for the Wildcats.

LOS ANGELES -- It wouldn't be a surprise if Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott let out a loud sigh of relief late Friday night, as Colorado's victory against California in the second Pac-12 semifinal allowed his conference to avoid the Armageddon scenario of being the first one-bid major conference since the NCAA tournament expanded from 48 to 64 teams in 1985. With the Golden Bears assured of a bid barring some crazy circumstances, Saturday's Pac-12 title game between Colorado and Arizona will give the conference a second bid. And Washington has a decent shot at getting a third bid for the Pac-12. So take that critics!

No. 6 Colorado vs. No. 4 Arizona, 6 p.m. ET
Neither the Buffaloes (22-11) or Wildcats (23-10) were considered an at-large selection when the Pac-12 tournament started, and the loser is almost assuredly relegated to the NIT, as both teams were in the "Next Four Out" category of Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology. So the atmosphere for this conference championship game will have more of a mid-major feel, where the combatants are scrapping and fighting for their shot at glory, than a BCS conference title game vibe, where the teams are playing simply for seeding. That should make for some fun at Staples Center.

Both teams have gotten to this point via defense, as they are the top two field goal percentage defenses in the conference. Colorado has given up only 54 points per game in its three victories (43 against Utah, 62 against Oregon, and 59 Friday night against Cal), holding opponents to 39.5 percent shooting in those victories. Colorado clamped down at crucial times twice against the Golden Bears, getting out to a 15-4 start early, and holding Cal scoreless for 4:28 in the late going, allowing a three-point lead to swell to a comfortable 59-46 advantage.

Arizona is no slouch on the defensive end either, as it actually led the Pac-12 in field goal percentage defense. The Wildcats held Oregon State more than 18 points below its season average in Friday's 72-61 semifinal victory, shutting off Jared Cunningham in the second half. After limping into the halftime down 34-27 after Oregon State ripped off a 20-4 run, the Wildcats flipped the script in the second half with their defense, holding the Beavers without a field goal for 6:16 as part of a 20-3 surge.

Keys to victory: Hitting the three and the boards. Along with stifling defense, Arizona turned the tables on Oregon State on Friday by tearing it up from long distance, as the Wildcats drained nine of 18 3-pointers. Brendon Lavender's trey to tie the game at 36-36 was considered the turning point of the game by Arizona coach Sean Miller. Kyle Fogg also nailed three triples, seemingly all late in the shot clock. Arizona leads the conference in 3-pointers per game, so look for Fogg, Lavender, Solomon Hill and Nick Johnson behind the arc.

Colorado sophomore forward Andre Roberson, the leading rebounder in the Pac-12, has been a double-double machine this season, compiling 18 thus far. He narrowly missed a 19th against Cal, with 17 points and nine rebounds. But Colorado, one of the best rebounding teams in the conference, was actually outboarded 31-25 by Cal, which is something it can't afford to do against Arizona. The Wildcats' Jesse Perry, the second-leading rebounder in the conference, had 16 points and 11 rebounds against Oregon State, while Hill can also crash the boards. So the Buffaloes will need the likes of Austin Dufault and Carlon Brown to help Roberson on the glass.

Previous meetings: The teams split their regular-season encounters. Colorado pulled out a 64-63 nail-biter in Boulder on Jan. 21., and Arizona notched a 71-57 victory in Tucson on Feb. 9. Brown was the hero for the Buffs in the first game, draining the game-winning 3-pointer with 1:19 left. Arizona crashed the boards in its victory, as Perry (17 points, 11 rebounds) and Hill (16 points, 14 boards) each compiled double-doubles.

LOS ANGELES -- Colorado doesn't care about bubbles. It doesn't care about odds. It doesn't even care about being the new kids and throwing the Pac-12 establishment for a loop by refusing to wait its turn.

It just cares about winning that next game.

That's been good enough for the No. 6-seeded Buffaloes, who advanced to the Pac-12 tournament title game Friday with their third victory in three nights, taking out No. 2 California, 70-59. The Buffaloes will face No. 4 seed Arizona at 6 p.m. Saturday at Staples Center with an NCAA tournament berth on the line.

But don't expect them to talk about bubbles between now and then, as the word “bubble” is almost considered vulgar in Boulder.

“We don't discuss bubbles, we don't talk about them at all,” Colorado coach Tad Boyle said. “After what these kids went through last year, we refuse to discuss that word. We came here on a mission and it has nothing to do with bubbles.”

You can't blame the Buffaloes for being sore about the b-word, as Colorado was left at the altar last season on Selection Sunday despite a 21-13 overall record and a .500 mark in the respected Big 12. But even mentioning the bubble, or bursting other team's bubbles -- like the Buffaloes did when they defeated Oregon in the quarterfinals on Thursday -- brings angst.

“We aren't worried about that. We are worried about winning the [Pac-12] tournament,” Colorado guard Carlon Brown said. “It's been a long time since a Colorado team has been in a title game, so that's something we want to do.”

The Buffaloes haven't gone through the Pac-12 freshman initiation that fellow new guy Utah has endured this season, as Colorado has built a 22-11 record despite being picked to finish near the bottom of the conference. Those preseason prognostications have been a point of motivation for CU all year, sometimes too much so.

“Yeah, it's motivated these guys,” Boyle said. “We've talked about it. I've probably beat it over the head a little bit too much, but anytime I feel like we're letting down a little bit or we need a good practice I just throw it out there.”

The Buffs didn't let down on defense, which is fitting for a team that's second in the conference in that category. Colorado forced 17 Golden Bears turnovers to 13 assists, with 11 of those turnovers coming in the first half, and limited Cal to 42.9 percent shooting in the game. One stretch in particular where the Buffaloes locked down was from the 8:10 mark of the second half to the 3:48 mark, as they held Cal scoreless while scoring 10 consecutive points, turning a tight 49-46 game into a decisive 59-46 advantage.

Colorado will be facing another stout defensive team in the championship game, as Arizona is the only other team that betters the Buffs in the Pac-12 defensive statistics.

“I think it's appropriate that you have the two best defensive basketball teams playing for the championship,” Boyle said. “They're No. 1 in field goal percentage defense. We're No. 2. It's a quick turnaround and we are ready to go.”

Colorado has a chance to put its new conference on its ear if it wins the conference title in its first season in the Pac-12. But instead of being mad at its precociousness, the Pac-12 might want to give Colorado a pat on the back, as its victory on Friday will allow the conference to avoid the possibility of being a one-bid league, as California is virtually assured of an at-large bid.

But that's another aspect of its run that Colorado refused to think about. There's only one goal that matters, which is qualifying for the NCAA tournament for the first time since the 2002-03 season.

“I want these guys to make it,” said Brown, who qualified for the tournament when he played for Utah in 2009. “I've already been there but I want the rest of these guys to get there too.”

LOS ANGELES -- After having come within two points of making the Final Four a year ago, Arizona wasn't going to allow its NCAA tournament hopes to fade away at halftime of the Pac-12 tournament semifinals on Friday at Staples Center.

So despite only hitting one field goal in the final 7:56 of the first half and going into halftime down seven points to No. 9-seeded Oregon State, Arizona knew that its tourney chances weren't remotely close to being done.

“Sometimes as a coach you have a feel that your guys have been through it before, and it's somewhat understated how many postseason games we played in a year ago,” Arizona coach Sean Miller said. “When you're at halftime and you're playing in these elimination games, it certainly helps to have a team of individual players that have done that and been there before.”

That experience was evident in the second half, as No. 4-seeded Arizona buckled down on defense, outscoring the Beavers by 18 points in the second half to roll to a 72-61 victory and a berth in the Pac-12 championship game on Saturday.

After allowing the Beavers (19-14) to shoot 50 percent in the first half, Arizona (23-10) locked down on defense, holding Oregon State to 27.3 percent shooting to turn a 34-27 disadvantage into another step toward its 26th NCAA tournament appearance in 27 seasons. But even though the entire 20 minutes was a clinic, Miller said he was especially impressed by the way his team played in the first four minutes of the second half.

“That four to eight minutes in the second half is some of the best basketball that we played this year,” Miller said. “It would have been easy to go in at halftime and say 'It just doesn't feel right,' but we did just the opposite.”

Seniors Kyle Fogg and Jesse Perry were key cogs in Arizona's second-half push, as Fogg scored 17 of his game-high 22 points in the second half while Perry scored 10 points and pulled down 7 rebounds after halftime, giving him a double-double of 16 points and 11 rebounds for the game.

“He made some big shots,” Miller said of Fogg. “It wasn't an easy 22. He made several plays when it counted the most -- made a lot of plays at the end of the [shot] clock. He's really been doing that, and he had a great game today.”

The entire Wildcats team had a great second half on defense, holding Oregon State to zero field goals and only one point for 6 minutes, 16 seconds, from the 17:48 mark to 11:32 of the second half. Oregon State's only point during that stretch came on a free throw by Jared Cunningham. Cunningham was a symbol of Oregon State's second-half frustration, scoring only 3 points on 1-of-8 shooting in the second half after going off for 11 in the first 20 minutes.

While Oregon State was scuffling, Arizona was making big shots. The biggest of Arizona's 20-3 run to open the second half might have come at the 16:21 mark, when senior guard Brendon Lavender drained a 3-pointer at the top of the key to tie the game at 36-36.

“When Brendon hit that shot, I could sense that we were ready to get it going,” Fogg said. “It seemed to take a little out of them too. It's tough playing three games in three days like they did and it started to catch up to them.”

Oregon State coach Craig Robinson admitted that the Beavers had lost their legs in the second half, as the combination of playing two intense games prior to Friday and the Beavers' frenetic style took its toll.

“I thought we simply ran out of gas,” Robinson said. “We played so hard and so fast for three days that we didn't have anything left in the tank after they made their run at us. With the way we play, I thought it took its toll.”

But Arizona had just as much to do with Oregon State's fatigue than any sort of lag the Beavers felt. Freshman guard Nick Johnson, who put Arizona up for good at 38-36 with 15:59 left on a driving layup, was one player who Miller lavishly praised.

“With Nick, it's not what shows up on the stat sheet,” Miller said. “It's just that he's a playmaker. And he made plays tonight.”

The Wildcats hope that Johnson, as well as the rest of the crew, continue to make plays in Saturday night's Pac-12 championship game and take any question about their tournament status out of the selection committee's hands.

Andy Katz previews Friday's action, including the Pac-12's semifinal matchup between Oregon State and Arizona.

Doug Gottlieb goes conference by conference to examine what each bubble team needs to do this week to feel at least somewhat safe. To read Eamonn Brennan's updated Bubble Watch, click here.

Before Monday's full bracket is released, here's a sneak peek at the basics of Bracketology with Sunday's bubble-impact games now in the books.

NOTABLE

• Arizona drops out of field with loss at Arizona State.
• Texas moves back into field as the last team in.
• With Cal’s loss at Stanford, Washington clinches Pac-12 regular-season title.
• Middle Tennessee falls out of field with loss to Arkansas State in Sun Belt tourney and is a fringe bubble team.

Last Four In
Northwestern
Seton Hall
Xavier
Texas

First Four Out
Tennessee
VCU
Oregon
NC State

Next Four Out
Miami (Fla.)
Iona
Arizona
Saint Joseph's

Also considered: Dayton, Marshall, Ole Miss, Middle Tennessee

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

NCAA AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Murray State (Ohio Valley)
UNC Asheville (Big South)

Editor’s Note: To see our expert picks for each of the nation’s 12 top conferences, click here. To cast your vote in these races, visit SportsNation.

A quick look at the player and coach of the year races in the Pac-12:

Player of the Year

Last year, this race was easy. Derrick Williams (speaking of which, how about his line against the Clippers Tuesday night?) was simultaneously one of the nation's most exciting, important and efficient players. The 2011 Pac-10 player of the year ballot didn't require much in the way of deep, ruminative thought. Just write down "Derrick Williams, Arizona" and go enjoy the rest of your day.

The 2012 race is far less transparent. Perhaps that's an effect of the nature of this very down league, which lacks the diffuse top-flight NBA talent of the past decade. Or maybe it's just one of those years, in which the Pac-12 has a lot of solid players, and some very good ones, but no one obvious pick, no player whose performance has screamed "I'm better than everyone else here." When you look at the tempo-free stats -- offensive rating, for example -- the numbers seem to bear that out: Among players that used at least 24 percent of their team's possessions, the league's highest offensive rating belonged to Washington State's Brock Motum (108.9). By contrast, most other power six leagues have several players above that threshold, in some cases by a considerable margin.

Which, actually, is a good, quick way to insert Motum into this conversation. The chances Motum will win the official Pac-12 POY award are probably slim to none. His team's record (14-14 overall, 6-10 Pac-12, as of this writing) just isn't good enough to get him that kind of consideration. But Motum has been an efficient and versatile interior force for a team that desperately needed one when senior guard Faisal Aden suffered a career-ending ACL injury earlier this season. His surprise emergence kept an already-bad Wazzu team from totally falling off a cliff. They don't give many POY awards for "sneakily the most important player on a thoroughly mediocre team," so Motum won't win the award. But he is certainly worthy of a mention. The same can be said for Oregon State guard Jared Cunningham, who leads the league in points (18.7) and steals (2.6) average per game.

In the end, though, we have to give the nod to Washington guard Tony Wroten. Wroten has plenty of holes in his game, to be sure. He dominates the ball, and not always for the better. He's made just 9 of his 49 3-point attempts all season. His turnovers nearly eclipse his assists. And so on. But there are no perfect players in the Pac-12 this season -- there is no Derrick Williams -- and Wroten's overwhelming athleticism and playmaking ability at the off-guard spot has, for all occasional flaws, often been the difference in Washington's nine-wins-in-10-games run to the top of the Pac-12 standings this week. Cal's Jorge Gutierrez and Allen Crabbe deserve honorable mentions, as well, but Cal's strengths lie in its balance. Wroten has talent alongside him -- Terrence Ross could be a candidate, too -- but Wroten's total floor game (his averages: 16.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.0 steals) make him arguably the most difficult player to gameplan for in the entire league. And as the season has worn on, the freshman has often raised his game.

It's no slam dunk. But very little in this year's Pac-12 is.

Coach of the Year

Coach of the Year is always a weird award, isn't it? Most voters seem to look at preseason predictions -- which the voters themselves (or the coaches, or both) create in the first place -- and judge a coach based on how his team performed against those expectations. This discounts the importance of recruiting, of managing elite talent, or both, and it tends to boil the award down to a pretty crude calculus.

Which is why we have to give this year's Pac-12 Coach of the Year honor to ... wait for it ... UCLA's Ben Howland.

Kidding, you guys! Kidding! Holster your angry comments! I just had to make sure you were paying attention, is all. (I have a better chance of winning the 2013 NBA Dunk Contest than Howland does of winning coach of the year. Ain't happenin'.)

All joking aside, and with apologies to likewise deserving leaders like Washington's Lorenzo Romar, Oregon's Dana Altman, Cal's Mike Montgomery and Arizona's Sean Miller, this year's Pac-12 Coach of the Year is -- or at least should be -- Colorado's Tad Boyle. Last offseason, Boyle lost his two best players (senior guard Cory Higgins and NBA-bound guard Alec Burks), and the Buffaloes were rightly expected to finish near the middle, or even the bottom half, of the Pac-12. But behind a stellar season from sophomore forward Andre Roberson, Boyle has his team currently sitting at 19-9 overall and 11-5 in the league with an outside shot -- a small one, but a shot nonetheless -- at sneaking into the NCAA tournament on Selection Sunday.

In 2011, with an NBA talent and a very productive senior leader on his team, the Buffs were one of the few deserving candidates to miss out on the Big Dance. That Boyle might yet get this year's team in that field is a testament to the job he's done in his second season.

For all the ways you can diss the Pac-12 this season -- and you can start with the 1-29 record against the RPI top 50 in nonconference play, or look at the paucity of teams ranked inside Ken Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency top 50 (there are two), and so on and so forth -- you can't dispute this: This league is in for a fascinating final week.

Why? Cal's loss at Colorado on Sunday dropped the Bears to 13-4, where they're currently a half-game behind Washington, which just snuck past rival Washington State 59-55 on Saturday. If the Huskies win at USC and UCLA, they'll finish 15-3 and in sole possession of the conference title. If they stumble -- and provided Cal can get past Stanford on Sunday -- the Bears could still earn a share of a title they've appeared destined to win for much of the season. Forget NCAA tournament bubble implications. These coaches and players have a title to win.

Oh, and speaking of the tourney: There really are no guarantees. Cal is the closest thing to an exception, because it would be hard for the Bears to fall below the coterie of teams bunched around the bubble line on the S-Curve even after Sunday's loss in Boulder. But Washington? Arizona? The operative Bubble Watch phrase here is "work to do." The basketball has been uneven all season, but you can't dispute the intrigue and what promises to be a fiery debate in the weeks leading up to Selection Sunday. Stay tuned.

1. California: On Sunday, Cal lost 70-57 at Colorado. Just three days earlier, Stanford went to Boulder and beat the Buffaloes 74-50. You figure those two results out. I really can't. Cal still looks like the best team in the conference, and its still-solid efficiency numbers (the Bears rank No. 19 overall in KenPom's adjusted efficiency and No. 2 in the league in per-possession offense and defense, the best all-around numbers of any team in Pac-12 play) back that up. But they're far from a dominant outfit, which we saw in the offensively challenged performance at CU. Now the Bears have to win at rival Stanford -- and hope for a Washington loss -- to steal a share of the league title.

2. Washington: The Huskies now control whether they win the Pac-12 title. Wins at USC and UCLA would make them outright regular-season conference champs. Most Washington fans would assume, and understandably so, such an accomplishment would seal their team's NCAA tournament bid. But in this season's Pac-12, that isn't a guarantee. Remember, the committee doesn't look at conference record (at least, it says it doesn't), but it does look at nonconference performance and top-50 wins, among other things. This conference is severely lacking in both categories. One would assume 15-3 and the league title will be enough, but UW might not want to drop a game to the LA schools and test whether 14-4 does the trick.

3. Arizona: Seniors Kyle Fogg and Jesse Perry were determined to make their final regular-season home game a win, and their second-half efforts -- in which they combined for 28 of their team's 38 points -- ensured a crucial two-point victory over UCLA. Arizona's at-large chances remain a work in progress, but the win over the rival Bruins keeps them in the discussion heading into the finale against ASU and the Pac-12 tourney.

4. Oregon: Oregon's chances of notching an at-large bid aren't great, but Dana Altman's team kept its faint hopes alive by escaping from Corvallis with a one-point win over Oregon State on Sunday. Oregon finishes up with two home games versus Colorado and Utah. E.J. Singler and Devoe Joseph have really come on down the stretch for this team, giving the Ducks efficient offense on the wing, but the narrow losses to Oregon State, Cal and Colorado in the past month have kept Altman's team from breaking through to the top of the league.

5. Colorado: When you're on the bubble fringe, as Colorado is, the best you can do is take your chances when they come. That's what Tad Boyle's team did Sunday, beating league leader (and the only team in the league with a top-50 RPI) California. The Buffs have struggled on the road all season long, so season-closing road trips to Oregon and Oregon State will present their challenges. At this point, even with the Cal win in hand, CU's profile is such that it almost certainly has to win the next two and at least get to the Pac-12 tourney final to find itself in the NCAA tournament.

6. UCLA: The 2012 Bruins are still the 2012 Bruins -- disappointing, mediocre, occasionally not-quite-mediocre and then mediocre again. This week, UCLA beat Arizona State in Tempe and lost to Arizona in Tucson. It is 9-7 in league play. its longest winning and losing streaks in league play are three games and two games, respectively. In its past five games, UCLA has lost (to Cal), won (USC), lost (at St. John's), won (Arizona State) and lost (at Arizona). I think that pretty much sums it up.

7. Stanford: Can you explain the Cardinal's week? Because I can't. On Thursday, Stanford went to Colorado -- a team that beat Cal by 13 Sunday, mind you -- and won by 24 points. Then, on Saturday, Stanford lost. Yes, lost at Utah. Utah has played better, and clearly Colorado was off, and so on, but still. This league is weird.

8. Washington State: The Cougars nearly took down the Huskies in Pullman Saturday, a win that may well have sunk Washington's at-large hopes for good. Instead, Washington escaped with the 59-55 win, as Wazzu's offense -- which, pre-Faisal Aden injury, was one of the league's best while at home -- fell short.

9. Oregon State: The Beavers' one-point home loss to Oregon on Sunday was their fifth in a row, a losing streak that began with a home loss to the aforementioned Cougars and continued against Washington, Stanford and Cal. Back in November, Oregon State lost to Vanderbilt by two points on a neutral floor just two days after putting 100 points on a solid Texas team in an overtime victory. That was months ago now, but it feels even longer.

10. Arizona State: All things considered, this has been a disastrous season for Arizona State, from the losses to the ineligibility of freshman Jahii Carson to more losses to, well, more losses after that. In any other season, ASU is probably the worst team in this league. But not in 2012! So, you know, there's that.

11. Utah: We can say much of the same for the Utes. In any other season, Utah -- which changed coaches and conferences in the matter of 12 months and saw its best and most important player (Josh "Jiggy" Watkins) dismissed by coach Larry Krystkowiak in mid-January -- would be the worst team in this league. For much of the season, including that horrendous nonconference stretch, things appeared to be heading that way. But give the Utes some credit. They improved throughout the season, played hard and gave a bunch of putatively better teams occasionally serious challenges -- and even won some, including this weekend against Stanford.

12. USC: And also, USC is worse. The Trojans are averaging .83 points per trip (adjusted) in Pac-12 play. Overall, the Trojans' offensive efficiency ranks No. 318 in the country, per KenPom, which puts them one spot ahead of Eastern Michigan and one spot behind Arkansas-Pine Bluff. In 16 Pac-12 games, the Trojans have scored more than 60 points exactly twice. Saturday's loss at Arizona State dropped them to 1-15 in the worst Pac-12 we've seen in a really long time. In short, USC is bad.

At this point in the season, college hoops' biggest games come in two different sizes. There are: 1) genuinely big games and 2) genuinely big bubble games.

We had a smattering of both categories this afternoon. We'll cover all of the evening action later Saturday night, but let's dig into what we've seen so far:

No. 4 Kansas 87, No. 3 Missouri 86: If these two teams don't meet in the Big 12 tournament -- and let's all pray to the basketball gods that they do -- well, at least we'll always have Feb. 25, 2012, the day a century-old rivalry served up an absolute classic.

Have we seen a better, more important, more frenzied game this season? In the past five years? Sure, UNC-Kentucky and Duke-UNC were great, but there wasn't anywhere near as much on the line. The putative end of a rivalry. Missouri's impending move to the SEC. The increased tension and finger-pointing therein. The Big 12 regular-season title, and KU's eight-year streak at the top of the league, and Mizzou's last, best chance to do something about it. This was always going to be a good game. But it delivered so much more: A brilliant offensive night from Missouri, an incredible second-half comeback by Kansas,* huge plays down the stretch from both teams, an overtime fraught with tension, an insane atmosphere. Kansas 87, Missouri 86 lacked for nothing. We got it all.

Judging by my Twitter feed -- which may or may not be a representative sample of all of America (OK, it isn't) -- you were probably watching this game, so there's little need to recap it minute by minute. (Plus, our own Jason King has you covered, and he'll have more from Allen Fieldhouse to come.) Instead, let's take a moment to review the state of the national player of the year race, in which Thomas Robinson remains very much a factor. Anthony Davis (as you'll see just below) has crept closer and closer to Robinson in recent weeks, and rightfully so: Davis' game-changing talents are the main reason Kentucky is so difficult to beat. But Robinson isn't ceding to the freshman without a fight. His performance today -- Robinson posted 28 points and 12 rebounds -- was a dose of mastery at the season's most important time. Even within the game, Robinson was the hero: His game-tying three-point play gave Kansas the tie in regulation, and his subsequent block of a streaking Flip Pressey with just four seconds remaining pushed the game to overtime. Whenever Kansas needed a big play, Robinson gave it to them.

Let the player of the year arguments rage on. If you can pick one player over the other, more power to you. Because I certainly can't.

In any case, I'm going to go watch the replay of this game. More than once, probably. When the college hoops gods serve up something this good, you can't discard it after one use. Whatever happens to the Kansas-Mizzou rivalry now, regardless of the Big 12 tournament, we'll always have this. Thank you, hoops gods. We love you, too.

*Which, by the way, tied the record for the biggest home comeback in Kansas history. KU recovered from a 19-point home deficit Dec. 2, 1995 against UCLA, but that started in the first half. Big game, but nothing like this. Crazy.

No. 1 Kentucky 83, Vanderbilt 74: Vandy coach Kevin Stallings isn't the type to revel in moral victories, but even so, it would be hard for him to walk away from today's loss at Kentucky and not feel pretty good about his team. Kentucky, as you know, is a steamroller, an incredible collection of talent with a transformative defensive player in Anthony Davis and a coterie of first-round draft picks on the floor at any given time. But over the 80 minutes these two teams have played, Vanderbilt has come closest to legitimately challenging UK. There's a victory in there somewhere.

In any case, newsflash: Kentucky is still really, really good. Another newsflash: So is Davis. His incredible line -- 28 points, 11 rebounds, six blocks, and a 10-of-11 mark from the field -- pretty much says it all. (According to ESPN Stats and Information, Davis' 10-of-11 night gave him the highest field goal percentage of any Kentucky player against an SEC opponent in the past 15 seasons. We're running out of adjectives to describe this guy.)

No. 7 North Carolina 54, Virginia 51: Lost in the hubbub of Missouri-Kentucky was this rather excellent game in Charlottesville, in which the Cavaliers executed their gameplan to precision. This team thrives in slow-paced affairs -- its adjusted tempo of 60.4 possessions per game is the eighth-slowest in the country -- and keeping this game in that range was Virginia's only hope of containing UNC's balanced, talented and typically uptempo offensive attack. That much went well. Virginia made every possession an important one. But having done so, the Cavaliers couldn't get the crucial stops and buckets they needed when the game tightened even further in the final minutes.

With 13.3 seconds remaining, Tyler Zeller headfaked Akil Mitchell and got all the way to the rim for a game-defining dunk. Virginia fans will be upset with the referees in this one; there's no question Mike Scott's foul changed the game, to say nothing of the issues it caused him defensively, with no fouls to spare down the stretch. Scott missed large portions of the game due to foul trouble, which included a very questionable fourth foul on John Henson, as our Robbi Pickeral recounted in her Rapid Reaction. But UVa had chances to win this one, to hold the Tar Heels back. It just couldn't quite get there.

Bubble Specials

Iowa State 65, Kansas State 61: Before today, there was a good chance the Cyclones were going to make the NCAA tournament. They had built their resume in solid but unspectacular fashion in recent weeks, avoiding (for the most part) the kind of bad losses that could introduce some doubt into the process. With the closing troika of Kansas State (away), Missouri (away) and Baylor (home), the Cyclones could potentially have closed with an 0-3 mark and still gotten in. There wasn't a bad loss to be had.

But forget all that now: With this road win, the Cyclones are in. Kansas State had sealed its fate last week with back-to-back road wins over Baylor and Missouri. Iowa State's ability to overcome a tough, grooving defensive team on the road, to ride a scorching-hot Scott Cristopherson's 29 points (on 10-of-13 from the field and 5-of-5 from 3), to hold on to the win in the final moments, was all very impressive, the kind of thing that distinguishes you from the score of shaky bubble squads in the mix. There's no chance Iowa State misses the tournament now. Fred Hoiberg's team just killed the suspense.

Ole Miss 72, LSU 48: LSU's bubble chances were always slim, but they might officially be over now. A loss at Ole Miss isn't a killer if you have an otherwise strong profile. LSU doesn't. Even worse, though, is that the Tigers weren't competitive. They never held a lead in this game, trailed 34-24 at halftime, and flailed throughout the second half en route to the rout. In the process, they shot 4-of-23 from 3 and 18-of-58 overall. A loss of any kind at Ole Miss may have pushed LSU's fringe bubble candidacy back too low along the S-Curve for the Tigers to be considered a legitimate contender, but a loss this bad definitely does.

Arizona 65, UCLA 63: What a game for Arizona's seniors. In their final home game against their program's chief existential rival, Kyle Fogg and Jesse Perry combined for 36 points -- 28 of which came in the second half -- on the way to an ugly but well-deserved two-point win. As emotionally big as this victory no doubt was, it is even bigger for Fogg's, Perry's and the rest of the Wildcats' chances at making it to the NCAA tournament. A loss here would have been an ill-advised move in the wrong direction, as Arizona's profile -- like much of the Pac-12's -- includes only one top-50 RPI win. Those lack of top-end wins puts everything in jeopardy for squads like Washington and Arizona, who have been among their conference's best teams even as the rest of the college hoops world puzzles over just how bad the league really is. Nothing is guaranteed for anyone in the Pac-12. This win, expected though it may have been, is huge.

Memphis 87, Marshall 67: The Tigers' at-large chances have long been boosted by their nonconference schedule, which was among the best (read: most difficult) in the country in November and December. The Maui Invitational was just that good. But the Tigers weren't necessarily all the way safe; another loss or two like last week's home defeat to UTEP could have spelled some bubble trouble down the stretch. But after today's dominant win at Marshall -- which included some scuffling and squaring up, as well as what appeared to be some discord on the Memphis sideline -- the Tigers are in really strong shape. In fact, between these two, Marshall needed this game more. The Thundering Herd's rather quiet at-large credentials were worth noting this week. They weren't in the field by any means, but they had their chances to get there. This was one of those chances. Marshall failed to take advantage -- and emphatically so.

Clemson 72, NC State 69: In the past two weeks, NC State has had three shots at big wins. It let one slip in dramatic, mind-boggling fashion at Duke. It couldn't hang with Florida State or North Carolina. Those missed opportunities made today's road trip to Clemson a must. The Wolfpack entered Saturday right on the bubble, with a razor-thin difference between in or out status, and almost no margin for bad-loss error. But a bad loss is exactly what they got. Clemson's RPI isn't as bad as it once was -- the Tigers have steadily improved in ACC play -- but the committee will still see this as a loss to a sub-100 RPI (in Clemson's case, sub-140) and a fourth straight defeat at the season's most important time. With just a few games remaining, and no chances to notch a marquee win in the mix, NC State's fans may be destined to watch their team miss the tournament for yet another year. The future is bright under Mark Gottfried, but the present remains frustrating.

Rhode Island 64, Saint Louis 62: Look up the phrase "bad loss" in the Official Unabridged Bubble Watch dictionary, and you're sure to see "at Rhode Island" at or near the top of the list. Saint Louis' profile -- a sound but hardly exciting ledger with a top-25 RPI but no top-50 wins -- now looks much shakier as a result of this loss. The Rams' RPI is in the high 200s; they entered Saturday with a horrid 5-23 record and 11 losses in their past 13 games. That changed when Billy Baron, son of Rams coach Jim Baron, made the game winner with just four seconds remaining, giving the Rams their best win of the season and putting SLU's at-large chances under much greater scrutiny. The Billikens aren't going to fall out of the bracket thanks to one awful loss, but if these struggles continue (Xavier and at Duquesne are up next), that outcome is hardly out of the question.

Drexel 73, Old Dominion 72: Even with an imbalanced CAA schedule (which gave them just one game apiece vs. VCU and George Mason, both at home) the Dragons' streak of 22 wins in 23 games was impressive and worthy of bubble consideration. But the Dragons are still, like VCU and Mason and most of the CAA, hampered in many ways by their conference's lack of quality non-league wins, not to mention big RPI numbers and bigger nonconference strength of schedule figures. In other words, to stay in the at-large hunt, Drexel had to win on the road at ODU today. It did. When you win 23 of your final 24 regular-season games, you have to be in the tourney picture. But if Drexel's computer numbers stay this ugly, will the committee be impressed? Will three sub-150 losses (including Nov. 18's neutral-court loss to Norfolk State) doom the Dragons? This will be one of the more interesting questions the committee tackles in the hours leading up to the final bracket reveal.