ESPN Men's Basketball

SALT LAKE CITY -- Arizona on Thursday didn't look like a team that had lost five of its last 10 games entering the NCAA tournament. In dispatching 11th-seeded Belmont 81-64 in the Round of 64 -- shooting better than 56 percent and controlling the backboards (44-18) in the process -- the No. 6 Wildcats performed much more like the higher seed they were expected to be back when they began January unbeaten.

A quick look at the game:

Turning point(s): Arizona led from the get-go, taking an early 10-point lead. Belmont had whittled its deficit down to 23-19 on a Reece Chamberlain free throw with 2:59 left in the first half, but the Wildcats closed the half with a 9-1 run to take a 32-20 lead into the break. Arizona guard Mark Lyons added a 3-pointer and Nick Johnson added a layup before Belmont scored in the second half, giving the Wildcats a 17-point cushion.

The Bruins remained feisty, though, and with 5:27 left, they cut a once-20-point deficit to 64-53 when Ian Clark hit a 3, and teammate J.J. Mann stole an inbounds pass and buried a 3 of his own. But that's as close as they got.

Key player(s): Lyons finished with 23 points on 8-for-15 shooting. It marked his highest point total since early February. Kerron Johnson led Belmont with 22 points.

Key stat: The Bruins -- who had averaged 77.2 PPG and 49.4 percent shooting entering -- finished with 64 points on 39.2 percent shooting.

Next up: Arizona will play the New Mexico/Harvard winner on Saturday in the NCAA round of 32.

On "Bracket TV," Peter Keating identifies three underdogs that can win multiple games in the NCAA tournament.

I know the feeling. You’re nervous. You know the big names -- Ben McLemore, Victor Oladipo, Trey Burke -- but who’s this Nate kid I keep hearing about? Let me help you. Here are 10 mid-major stars who could really mess up your bracket in the coming days.

Mike Muscala (Bucknell) -- The Muscala Monster is a dangerous creature. The Bison are capable of upsetting Butler in the second round Thursday in Lexington because they’re led by one of America’s most underrated stars. He scored 25 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in a two-point loss to Missouri in January. Muscala (19.0 PPG, 11.2 RPG) dropped 18 points in a win against NCAA tourney participant La Salle in December. He’s finished with 25 points or more in 10 games. He also has the strength of 10 men. Not really, but he’s legit and more than prepared to help Bucknell ruin brackets worldwide.

Nate Wolters (South Dakota State) -- He plays with a chip on his shoulder. Few Division I schools sought his services when he was a high school standout in St. Cloud, Minn. Every season since, however, Wolters has proven he was clearly overlooked. He led the Jackrabbits to their second consecutive NCAA tournament appearance via a silky game that’s caught the attention of NBA scouts. He’s one of the nation’s most explosive offensive performers. Wolters (22.7 PPG, 39 percent from the 3-point line) recorded a Division I-high 53 points in a Feb. 7 win against IPFW. He’ll make Thursday’s matchup against Michigan in Auburn Hills interesting.

Will Cherry (Montana) -- Damian Lillard is arguably the top player in the NBA’s rookie class. When he was a Big Sky star at Weber State, Cherry was his top adversary. The senior is known for his defensive prowess (1.9 SPG), but he’s a talented offensive player, too. Cherry is averaging 13.9 PPG for a Montana team that will face Syracuse in San Jose on Friday. The Grizzlies don’t have top scorer Mathias Ward, who is out for the season with a foot injury. But Cherry is a proven leader. He’s tough, too. He missed a few games in early March after aggravating a foot injury that cost him the first few months of the season. But he hasn’t shown any signs of regression since his return.

Siyani Chambers (Harvard) -- The West Region is probably the easiest region. With Gonzaga as the 1-seed, it just seems more wide open than the other three. So expect the unexpected. Harvard could spur some madness in its second-round matchup against New Mexico in Salt Lake City on Thursday. The Lobos are the better team. But the Crimson have overcome adversity to reach this point. Stars Kyle Casey and Brandyn Curry left the team prior to the season because of an academic scandal. Chambers (12.9 PPG, 5.8 APG, 44 percent from the 3-point line), just a freshman, helped Tommy Amaker’s squad recover from those losses and earn another automatic berth with its second straight outright Ivy title.

Matthew Dellavedova (Saint Mary’s) -- The senior was a member of the Australian national team in the London Olympics. He’s struggled in his past two games, but Dellavedova will be ready for the NCAA tourney. The Gaels will face Middle Tennessee in Dayton in the First Four on Tuesday night. If they get past the Blue Raiders, they’ll see Memphis in the next round. Dellavedova (15.8 PPG, 6.4 APG, 38 percent from the 3-point line) is not just recognized as a mid-major star. He’s one of the best point guards in America, regardless of level. He’s talented and experienced. And he might help the Gaels nullify your bracket.

Jamal Olasewere (LIU Brooklyn) -- I don’t think we’ll see the first 16-over-1 upset. But if it is to happen, I pick the Blackbirds to pull off the feat. Why? Because Olasewere (18.9 PPG, 8.5 RPG) is a tough matchup for any team in the country. The 6-foot-7 forward is active inside, and he’s efficient in transition. The Blackbirds must get through James Madison in the First Four in Dayton on Wednesday. If they do, they’ll see Indiana on Friday in Dayton. If something crazy happens, Olasewere will certainly be involved.

Lamont “Momo” Jones (Iona) -- Iona is second in America with an average of 80.7 PPG. Jones, who started his career at Arizona, is the catalyst for the Gaels’ offense. He’s averaging 23.0 PPG, third in the nation. He’s recorded 30 points or more in six different games. He’s certainly a potent performer who guides a Gaels squad that can score in bunches. Iona, however, is facing one of the hottest teams in America right now. Ohio State has won eight games in a row, a streak that the Buckeyes capped with a Big Ten tournament title in Chicago on Sunday. But the Gaels play fast (17th in adjusted tempo per Ken Pomeroy). And their defense is porous. Still, Iona can overwhelm teams with its high-powered offense. That’s what makes its second-round matchup against Ohio State in Dayton on Friday so intriguing.

Ryan Broekhoff (Valparaiso) -- The 6-7 forward from Australia cracked ESPN's "SportsCenter" recently when his buzzer-beating 3-pointer knocked UW-Green Bay out of the Horizon League tournament. He’s one of the top mid-major players in the country. Broekhoff is averaging 15.9 PPG and 7.3 RPG for a Crusaders squad that will face Michigan State on Thursday in Auburn Hills. The atmosphere will favor the Spartans, but Valpo will be tough. The Crusaders are a versatile team with an offense that’s ranked 44th in adjusted offensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy. And Broekhoff is the key to that success.

Doug McDermott (Creighton) -- The Bluejays might be the most dangerous 7-seed in the field. They certainly hit a few bumps during Missouri Valley Conference play. Overall, however, they’ve been one of the top mid-major programs in the country. They have wins against Wisconsin, Arizona State, Akron and Cal. They lead the nation with a 50.8 percent clip from the field. Their defense is suspect (78th in adjusted defensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy). But McDermott, their leader, is a legit star. He’s averaging 23.1 PPG and 7.5 RPG. He could really go off in the Big Dance. First, he has to lead his team through a tough opening-round matchup against Cincinnati in Philly on Friday. Creighton is definitely a sleeper in the Midwest Region.

Ian Clark (Belmont) -- On paper, there’s a lot to like about Belmont. The Bruins are a strong squad that’s faced some of the best teams in the country in nonconference matchups. Belmont can beat Arizona in the second round Thursday in Salt Lake City. And a Sweet 16 run isn’t a crazy concept for this veteran squad. Clark (18.1 PPG, 46.3 percent from beyond the arc) is just one of the weapons that the Wildcats will have to neutralize when the two teams meet. He’s a stud who could really disrupt brackets throughout the country.

On "Bracket TV," Peter Keating identifies a likely upset in each region of the NCAA tournament.

Well, well, well. Apparently, a few teams want to go to the tournament after all.

OK, so of course everyone wants to play in the NCAA tournament. But watching the past week or so of college hoops, you could have been convinced otherwise. Why, it was just last Saturday that basically every SEC bubble team lost a bad game, while Arizona State, St. John's, Iowa State, Indiana State and Akron, just to name a few, suffered the kind of losses that can cost you a bid in the tournament.

The weekdays since haven't been much better. Virginia spent all week undoing the résumé boost earned with its victory over Duke. Kentucky lost at Georgia. Baylor flopped against Texas. It got so bad we had to begin considering the fringiest of the fringe -- Southern Miss, Iowa, Providence, Maryland -- even though it was almost physically painful to imagine most of those teams in the tournament.

And then, finally, mercifully, some of these teams started acting like they wanted to play meaningful basketball in March. Kentucky, Tennessee, Boise State and Baylor all got huge wins at home. Iowa State held on at West Virginia. Even Cincinnati, which had been quietly slipping toward the bubble in recent weeks, avoided a brutal loss to South Florida.

It wasn't all good news. Oklahoma lost at TCU. Arizona State fell flat at Arizona. Xavier, Providence and St. John's all missed chances to get somewhere near reality in this thing. There were, as there always are, a handful of head-scratchers -- how Louisiana Tech goes three months without losing once and then drops back-to-back games in the matter of two days is beyond this humble bubbleologist.

But the end effect is clear: The bubble is just a little more firm than it was at the start of the day, a little tougher to crack. Good things happen when players play like they actually care about making the tournament. Who knew?

WINNERS

Kentucky: The biggest bubble story of the day, and almost certainly the most impactful, Kentucky's win over Florida put the Wildcats back on the right side of the bubble in their final regular-season opportunity. Considering where Kentucky was after its loss at Georgia this week -- all self-recrimination and disbelief -- it was a bit remarkable to stand up at the last possible moment, once and for all.

I won't spend a whole lot of time here, because you can read my reaction from this afternoon here. Long story short: UK is no lock to make the tournament, and it still has to navigate a tangle of prospective bad losses in the SEC tournament, but right now, compared to much of the rest of the bubble, the Wildcats are closer to being in than not.

Baylor: I am not above making a tired and dumb bodysnatchers joke -- see pretty much anything I've tweeted about Keith Appling for the past three weeks -- but rare is the opportunity to do so in regards to a team that plays inexplicably well. Today, Baylor is that team.

I mean, how else do you explain the Bears not just beating Kansas in Waco, Texas, but blowing Kansas out? When in the past seven days we've seen a) Baylor lose at home to K-State on one of the most heartbreaking (and poorly executed) final seconds of the season and b) lose 79-70 at Texas? That team -- a team that was admittedly still playing hard but looking utterly lost in doing so -- turned around and beat the Jayhawks by 23 points in the penultimate game of the regular season. How does that happen?

Complete shock aside, the bad news for the Bears (sorry) is that they're just 2-10 against the RPI top 50, 5-10 against the top 100, and still have a prohibitively high RPI (No. 73 entering Saturday). As nice as Saturday's win was, and for as much as it helped the Bears, the damage they did in recent weeks isn't so easy to overcome in one fell swoop. They still need more -- and a first-round Big 12 tourney shot against Oklahoma State is an awfully good place to start.

Boise State: In case you're not up to speed on the Broncos -- and no, they don't play their home games on blue hardwood -- they established their potential tournament case all the way back on Nov. 28, when they shocked Creighton (then the No. 11 team in the country) on its home floor. (Eight days earlier, they had pushed Michigan State 74-70, and we all wondered what was wrong with the Spartans. Go figure.) Since then, they've trucked along in the Mountain West in almost exactly the fashion you'd expect: They've beaten some of the league's toughest teams (UNLV, Colorado State) at home and fallen to some of the league's lesser squads (Air Force isn't a bad loss; Nevada is) on the road. In other words, today's win over San Diego State wasn't exactly revolutionary; it was a realistic get, and the Broncos got it. The one thing really setting Jeff Elorriaga & Co. apart from the rest of the bubble dregs is their quality wins. Add one more.

Tennessee: What is it with Tennessee and late-season boosts? The Volunteers did this last season, too, when they turned a brutal first two months into a 10-6 SEC performance and a late desperate push to get into the NCAA tournament. It didn't happen then, but after Saturday's home win over Missouri -- a thank-you card addressed to Phil Pressey is currently in the mail - it looks very much like it's happening now.

I'm not saying that a home win over Missouri is this huge bubble landmark. It's at least a degree or four below a win over Florida. Missouri's only true road wins all season came at Mississippi State and South Carolina. Road warriors these Tigers are not, but combined with UT's other work -- eight wins in its past nine games, including a 30-point demolition of Kentucky and its own victory over Florida -- the résumé is now right in the middle of the bubble picture. Like Kentucky, or really any of these SEC teams, anything can happen going away. But for now, the news is good.

Iowa State: Of any of these bubble winners, Iowa State should be in the best shape. For one, the Cyclones are easily the best team in this group; even a cursory glance at their efficiency numbers (especially when contrasted with the rest of these teams) reveals one of the best offenses in the country and a top-35-ish team overall. I also happen to think the committee will go outside its nitty-gritty sheets and delve into Iowa State's two losses to Kansas, both of which came in overtime, the latter of which was ripped from them thanks to some truly diabolical officiating. Anyway, I wouldn't be able to say any of this had Iowa State lost at West Virginia on Saturday. It didn't, and so I can.

Ole Miss: The Rebels won by 14 at LSU. Were they in better position to start the day -- had they not lost to Mississippi State last week, perhaps -- I might have stuck them down in the "Survivors" category. As it is, they remain in the picture, but have a ton of work to do in the SEC tournament. One win won't get it done.

LOSERS

Arizona State: The Sun Devils are basically done. It's not just a loss at Arizona -- that is obviously forgivable, even if the Wildcats aren't nearly as good as we thought they'd be this season -- it's the four losses in a row (to Washington, UCLA and USC, the latter two of which were on the road, before today's loss at Arizona) as well as an RPI in the 90s, the 283rd-hardest schedule, and so on. Credit Herb Sendek and Jahii Carson for getting this program back in the mix in short order, but it's hard to see an at-large here.

La Salle: The Explorers aren't in bad shape, relatively speaking, and you can hardly fault any team for taking one on the chin at Saint Louis, which they did today. But La Salle has been sort of quietly sliding toward the bubble in the past couple of weeks, and losing 78-54 at this point in the season is hardly the best way to impress the committee. Definitely worth keeping an eye on right now.

Oklahoma: Oklahoma has been in great tournament shape for the majority of the past month -- the Sooners have been playing solid hoops, and their RPI and SOS figures are great -- but it nonetheless entered Saturday outside the comfort of lockdom. And then the Sooners lost to TCU. That probably isn't enough to put Oklahoma below a score of the teams you see here, but when you really dig in to its résumé, there's not much about it that screams "lock." A first-round loss to Iowa State next week could have the Sooners wavering by Selection Sunday.

Colorado: This week's Bubble Watch included a little homily on how the Buffaloes' résumé wasn't all that much different from UCLA's, but Colorado was frequently a No. 10 seed while the Bruins were most often placed on the No. 6 line. That was wrong, I wrote. Naturally, Colorado proceeded to lose at home to Oregon State. Like Oklahoma, the Buffaloes are still in better shape than, say, Baylor, but their regular-season finale was enough to introduce some serious questions going forward.

Louisiana Tech: Before this week, La. Tech's last loss was at McNeese State all the way back on Dec. 12. This week, the Bulldogs lost two in a row, and whatever slim chance they had of getting an at-large look is now officially gone.

Minnesota: How do you follow up a win against Indiana? If you're Minnesota, you lose at Nebraska and Purdue. I don't really understand how that works, but I don't understand anything about this Gophers team. I don't think Tubby Smith does, either. The good news is Minnesota is still in much better shape than almost anyone on this list, thanks to its batch of top-50 wins and some pretty peerless computer numbers (RPI: 20; SOS: 2). But the Gophers did just finish the Big Ten season at 8-10, and what if they fall in the first round of the Big Ten tournament? You have to at least consider them to be on the bubble right now, right?

SURVIVORS

Alabama: The Crimson Tide scraped out a three-point home win over Georgia on Saturday. That is the definition of bubble survival: A loss probably would have knocked Anthony Grant's team totally out of the conversation. As it is, it's still a bit of a long shot -- the Tide were Joe Lunardi's last team among the first four out Saturday evening -- with absolutely zero good wins on its docket. Just a totally uninspiring résumé.

Southern Miss: Speaking of totally uninspiring résumés: the Golden Eagles, everyone! To be honest, it sort of baffles me that Southern Miss is even in the conversation; its best wins are at Denver and a sweep of East Carolina. But the Golden Eagles are hanging around the very fringes of the bubble, and Saturday's home victory over UCF preserved that ungainly status.

Iowa: If Iowa doesn't make the tournament -- and right now it looks very much like Iowa is not going to make the tournament -- Fran McCaffery will really only have himself to blame. The Hawkeyes' nonconference schedule was that of a team still in rebuilding mode, looking for some forgiving opponents and early-season wins. It didn't help that Northern Iowa wasn't as good as advertised, but still, the overall nonconference schedule rank of 308 looks like it is going to keep this .500 Big Ten team -- which would normally be a worthy distinction -- from serious bubble consideration, barring a big push in Chicago next week.

Cincinnati: What if Cincinnati had lost to South Florida on Saturday? That would have been the Bearcats' seventh loss in their past nine games, would have put them at 8-10 in Big East play and, worst of all, would have been a loss to South Florida, which has been just flat-out bad all season long. Fortunately, Cincinnati didn't lose to South Florida. Mick Cronin's team held on 61-53 and should be in solid shape moving forward.

Belmont: This sort-of-kind-of doesn't count, because Belmont won the Ohio Valley Conference tournament in thrilling fashion Saturday, and its Dance status is now of the automatic variety. But had they lost, it's entirely possible the Bruins would have missed the tournament altogether.

MISSED OPPORTUNITIES

Xavier: Two weeks ago, despite the young Musketeers' growing pains, it was impossible to look at Xavier's schedule and not have your saliva glands start working a little overdrive. Chris Mack's kids would get VCU, Memphis, UMass and Saint Louis all at home, and then they'd finish the season with a trip to Butler. The Cintas Center is a difficult place to play; a 4-1 record was entirely believable, and could have been a season-changing stretch. Instead, Xavier went 2-3 -- it lost at Butler on Saturday 67-62 -- and its tournament credentials look about as so-so as they did back in mid-February. Alas.

Providence: An even bigger long shot than better-than-you-think brothers-in-arms Iowa at this point, at least Providence, which would close the season at Connecticut, had the best chance of notching an impressive road victory on the final weekend of the season. Instead, UConn held on 63-59. Keep an eye on the Friars going forward; like McCaffery at Iowa, Ed Cooley has them playing better basketball than anyone expected this early in his tenure. But a tournament bid will have to wait.

St. John's: After suspending D'Angelo Harrison, sitting Sir'Dominic Pointer for a one-game fighting suspension and losing three in a row, St. John's looked totally cooked coming in to the weekend, both on the bubble and on the court. But the Red Storm didn't roll over. Instead, they gave Marquette a genuine test, forcing guard Vander Blue to make a last-second running layup to win and secure Buzz Williams a share of the Big East title. It was an impressive showing by the Red Storm, albeit one that came up just short. No chance this team gets in the tournament now.

 
Kerron Johnson's jumper in the final seconds of overtime sealed an NCAA tournament berth for Belmont with a 70-68 victory over Murray State in the final of the Ohio Valley Conference tournament.

"College Basketball Live Extra's" Seth Greenberg and Jay Williams talk about the mid-major teams that can win a game in the NCAA tournament.

Here are the scenarios today for teams that have a chance to clinch their regular-season conference title outright. For conferences with two divisions, we use the terminology “will clinch best record” instead of “will clinch conference outright.”

Akron: Will clinch best record in MAC with win at Buffalo and Ohio loss at Bowling Green
Belmont: Will clinch best record in Ohio Valley with win vs. Jacksonville State or Eastern Kentucky loss at Tennessee State
Charleston Southern: Will clinch best record in Big South South Division with win vs. Coastal Carolina
High Point: Will clinch best record in Big South North division with win vs. Campbell
Long Beach State: Will clinch Big West outright with win at UC Irvine or Pacific loss at UC Riverside
Louisiana Tech: Will clinch WAC outright with win vs. San Jose State and Denver loss vs. New Mexico State
Memphis: Will clinch Conference USA outright with win at UCF or Southern Miss loss vs. East Carolina
Mercer: Will clinch Atlantic Sun outright with win at Stetson or Florida Gulf Coast loss vs. Kennesaw State
Miami: Will clinch ACC outright with win at Duke
New Mexico: Will clinch Mountain West outright with win vs. Wyoming and Colorado State loss at Boise State
Niagara: Will clinch MAAC outright with win vs. St. Peter's
South Dakota State: Will clinch Summit League outright with Western Illinois loss vs. South Dakota
Texas Southern: Will clinch SWAC outright with win vs. Alcorn State
Valparaiso: Will clinch Horizon League outright with win at Green Bay or Detroit loss at Illinois-Chicago
Wichita State at Creighton: Winner clinches Missouri Valley outright

The 11th and final BracketBusters event began Friday night and continues over the weekend all around the country. Here's my take (along with some predictions) on what I think are the seven best matchups:

SATURDAY

Iona at Indiana State, 11 a.m. ET, ESPNU: Remember when Indiana State was the sexy bubble team? That's no longer the case. ISU has lost three in a row and four of its last six. The Sycamores are in a can't-lose situation in this matchup with Iona. They have wins over Miami, Ole Miss and Wichita State, which helps. But they also have losses to the four teams in the bottom of the conference (Bradley, Drake, Missouri State and Southern Illinois). Figure that one out. Iona boasts one of the nation's most potent offenses (19th in adjusted offensive efficiency) but has lost five of six. Few teams have caught as many bad breaks as Iona. Three of those losses were sealed after regulation (one in overtime, two in double-overtime). The other two defeats were by three points or fewer. Iona is one or two stops away from being the MAAC's best team.
Prediction: Iona 76, Indiana State 74

Montana at Davidson, 3 p.m. ET, ESPNU: Montana had won 14 consecutive games prior to a 24-point loss at Weber State on Valentine’s Day. Turnovers (14) were an issue in that game, and they’ve been a problem for the program all year (turnovers on 19.1 percent of their possessions, 117th in the nation per KenPom). In the Southern Conference, Davidson has held opponents to 58.5 PPG. The Wildcats took some blows in the nonconference slate, but they’ve won 11 in a row, and Jake Cohen (14.6 PPG) and De'Mon Brooks (13.1 PPG) comprise one of the most talented duos in the mid-major ranks. Both squads will be equipped to seal a tight game at the charity stripe. Montana (76.3 percent) and Davidson (81.3 percent, first in the nation) are top-10 nationally from the free throw line.
Prediction: Davidson 73, Montana 69

Detroit at Wichita State, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Titans have soared toward the top of the Horizon League with an offense that's averaging 79 PPG, sixth in the nation. They're 20th in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offensive efficiency rankings, as Ray McCallum Jr. (18.7 PPG) leads a unit that possesses high-major athleticism at every position. But they'll have to decipher a Shockers squad that's found its groove again after a rocky three-game losing stretch that threatened its position in the Missouri Valley Conference. Gregg Marshall's team is back on top of the league with a feisty defense that's allowed only 59.7 PPG in MVC play (second in the conference). Six-foot-8 forward Cleanthony Early is a matchup dilemma due to his versatility (6-for-12 from the 3-point line in his last two games) and fellow 6-8 forward Carl Hall uses his brawn inside to make an impact. This is a matchup between a fluid offense and a stingy defense. Something has to give.
Prediction: Detroit 73, Wichita State 71

Creighton at Saint Mary’s, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN: Doug McDermott (22.5 PPG) is still one of the best players in the country, but the buzz surrounding the preseason All-American is not as high as it was even a month ago due to the Bluejays' recent struggles. They're still 47th in the RPI and they have top-100 RPI wins over Wisconsin, Arizona State, Indiana State and Cal. They're in a much safer spot than a Saint Mary's team that's banking on RPI alone (51) after failing to earn any meaningful nonconference wins. The Gaels will face BYU before this matchup against the Bluejays, but a win over the Cougars wouldn't carry the same weight as a victory over Creighton. McDermott and Saint Mary's guard Matthew Dellavedova are two of the most exciting players in the country, and this game means plenty to both squads. You don't want to miss it.
Prediction: Creighton 75, Saint Mary’s 70

South Dakota State at Murray State, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2: South Dakota State struggled in its first three Summit League games. The team lost two of those matchups after a brutal nonconference travel stretch that seemed to tire the Jackrabbits. But they’ve won 10 of their last 12 games. Still, much like Murray State, their only ticket to the Big Dance is through the conference tournament. Can the Jackrabbits get there, however, through Nate Wolters (22.8 PPG) and the powerful offense he pilots (32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency)? Or will their defense cost them down the stretch (213th in adjusted defensive efficiency)? Murray State has been up and down all season. The Racers beat Belmont, one of the best mid-majors in the country. But they’ve lost two of their last three games. Isaiah Canaan (20.6 PPG) is a very talented player but he needs help (the Racers are shooting 31.4 percent on 3s, 11th in the conference). It’s tough to predict this matchup because both squads have been so unpredictable. But South Dakota State has overcome better teams on the road (namely New Mexico).
Prediction: SDSU 80, Murray State 74

Ohio at Belmont, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN2: For a time this season, Belmont was certainly one of the best mid-major teams in the country. But a 2-2 record during a four-game road stretch has humbled the Bruins. They're the OVC's top scoring offense and defense, but they're committing turnovers on 19.9 percent of their possessions, 157th in the country per Ken Pomeroy. They'll face a team that can keep up with them on offense (Ohio averages a MAC-best 74.4 PPG). Belmont is likely still a bubble team with that high RPI (30), but the Bruins certainly haven't played like an NCAA tourney team in recent weeks. Both teams probably need conference tournament titles to guarantee slots. Yet they're also aware of the value of late-season momentum as they prepare for those league tourneys. A victory in this game would help achieve that. This contest also features a must-see guard matchup: Belmont's Ian Clark (18.9 PPG) versus Ohio's D.J. Cooper (13.6 PPG, 7.7 APG, 2.1 SPG). That alone is worth staying up late for.
Prediction: Ohio 79, Belmont 69

FRIDAY

Akron possesses the nation's top winning streak at 17 in a row. That run has placed the Zips on the soft NCAA tournament bubble. Zeke Marshall, who is fifth in the nation with 3.48 blocks per game, leads a group that's ranked 50th in adjusted defensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy. North Dakota State was rising in the Summit League before Taylor Braun, their leading scorer at 15.2 PPG, suffered a foot injury last month. The Bison have lost four of their last eight games and are third in the league. The good news is that Braun will probably return soon. The bad news is that he'll probably miss the trip to Akron.
Prediction: Akron 76, NDSU 65

The matchups for the final BracketBusters event aired on ESPNU tonight. See below for the television schedule and click here for Andy Katz's analysis and a wide range of insight from the head coaches involved.

Friday, Feb. 22

North Dakota State at Akron, ESPN2, 7 ET

Stephen F. Austin at Long Beach State, ESPNU, 9 ET

Saturday, Feb. 23

Iona at Indiana State, ESPNU, 11 a.m. ET

Eastern Kentucky at Valparaiso, ESPNU, 1 ET

Canisius at Vermont, ESPN3, 1 ET

Pacific at Western Michigan, ESPN3, 2 ET

Montana at Davidson, ESPNU, 3 ET

Northwestern State at Niagara, ESPN3, 3 ET

Detroit at Wichita State, ESPN/2, 4 ET

Creighton at Saint Mary's, ESPN/2, 6 ET

South Dakota State at Murray State, ESPN2, 8 ET

Denver at Northern Iowa, ESPN3, 8 ET

Ohio at Belmont, ESPN2, 10 ET

The matchups for the BracketBusters games not on television can be found here.

1. UConn coach Jim Calhoun said two weeks ago that he wanted to be back on campus for the start of school despite having hip surgery earlier this month after falling off his bike. Well, he made it a one day earlier, according to his staff. Calhoun was on campus Sunday to meet with the staff and players, and he plans on being back on campus Tuesday. Calhoun’s presence is great news for the staff and players who are hoping to get to the season in October without any more major distractions. The Huskies can’t play in the postseason due to poor Academic Progress Rate scores. But they have two major events in November: a Nov. 9 game against Michigan State at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, then the following week in the Paradise Jam in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

2. Stanford was desperate for a replacement game once Saint Louis canceled a home-and-home series that was to start this season in Palo Alto. The Cardinal found a replacement that is more than suitable for this late date. Stanford will host one of the WAC favorites -- Denver -- on Dec. 2 to open a home-and-home series. Stanford’s only other top home game is against Belmont. The road/neutral games are more than adequate for a potential Pac-12 title contender. Stanford plays at NC State and Northwestern, and against Missouri in the loaded Battle 4 Atlantis.

3. Boise State coach Leon Rice was relieved to get the news the Broncos would be in the Big West in 2013. He said he can now start setting up series with Mountain West schools beginning in 2013; he had held off due to the uncertainty. Meanwhile, Long Beach State coach Dan Monson said he trusts the leadership of the conference to add Boise State to the mix. He said his biggest concern is a path to the NCAA tournament. The Big West got better with San Diego State; it’s still unknown if Boise will help. But the schedule, especially with four Big East schools playing the Broncos, will definitely help the overall conference power rating.

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- With Georgetown enjoying a comfortable lead late against Belmont, one Bruins fan still believed the Hoyas would stumble the way they had the last two years against lower seeds.

“You got a lot of choke in you, Georgetown,” he screamed toward the end of Georgetown’s 74-59 victory over Belmont in the second round of the NCAA tournament at Nationwide Arena.

In 2010 and 2011, the fan would have been right. But he was wrong Friday.

The Hoyas avoided a third consecutive postseason loss to a lower seed with an easy win over the Bruins.

The 3-14 matchup quickly became a trendy upset pick on Selection Sunday based on Belmont’s 3-point shooting (8.8 per game, 10th in the nation entering Friday’s game) and Georgetown’s premature dismissals the previous two seasons.

In the 2010, the Hoyas fell against Ohio. In 2011, they lost to VCU in the second round.

They were determined, however, to avoid another one in Columbus. And their fast start proved it. With 8:55 to play in the first half, they had an 11-point lead.

“I think it was definitely a sense of urgency, not just for me, but for the whole team,” said guard Jason Clark, who scored 10 of his team’s first 14 points. “We’ve known what we’ve done in the past. So it was a big thing for us to get this win today.”

That boisterous Belmont fan summed up the perception that made the Bruins a popular upset pick in office pools around the country.

Center Henry Sims said he couldn’t escape the “Belmont over Georgetown” chatter entering the matchup.

“I can’t even tell you how many times I looked on Twitter and saw ‘I’m calling this upset, this 3-14 upset.’ I just wanted to prove people wrong,” he said.

Now, the Hoyas can look forward to a Sunday matchup against NC State, which beat San Diego State in the first game of the afternoon. The Wolfpack possess athleticism and length that Belmont clearly lacked.

The Bruins were down 36-27 at halftime after shooting 6-for-15 from the 3-point-line. The Hoyas, the best 3-point defenders in the nation, made every shot a tough shot for the Bruins.

And on offense, they just pounded the ball inside and exploited Belmont’s limited size.

Sims scored 15 points. Otto Porter finished with 16 points and eight rebounds. The Hoyas had a 44-20 scoring advantage in the paint by the end of the game.

And the Atlantic Sun champs didn’t have a defender that could stick with Clark, who recorded a game-high 21 points (9-for-12 from the field). Georgetown shot 61.2 percent overall.

After the Hoyas led 40-27 early in the second half, Belmont used a 9-2 run to cut Georgetown’s lead to six with 14:52 to play. But a Belmont goaltending call and turnover on its next possession helped the Hoyas regain a double-digit lead.

The 3-ball that had been so crucial throughout the season for Belmont was not as effective against the lengthy Hoyas. The Bruins were 4-for-12 from beyond the arc in the second half. Georgetown’s zone was effective throughout the matchup.

“It’s hard to shoot a 3 when it’s contested,” Sims said.

And now, the Hoyas feel like they can finally move forward.

“There’s no doubt, and I will be misleading if I were to say it was not a relief,” said coach John Thompson III.

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Instant analysis from Georgetown's 74-59 win over Belmont.

Overview: Georgetown, a 3-seed, avoided a third consecutive opening-round loss to a lower seed with a win over Belmont, a 14-seed. How did the Hoyas do it?

They used their length to stifle a Belmont team that loves 3-pointers and they parlayed that size advantage into easy buckets on the other end of the floor.

By the end of the first half, Georgetown had a 36-27 lead. They’d outscored the Bruins 16-6 in the paint. Belmont still managed a 6-for-15 (40 percent) clip from the 3-point line, but every shot was a difficult one. Many were off-balance. The Hoyas just didn’t let the Bruins, a team that’s in the top 10 in 3-pointers made per game, get comfortable.

They were even tougher in the second half. Belmont missed five of its first six 3-pointers after the break. Behind a 61 percent shooting clip, the Hoyas led 40-27, 48-36 and 55-40 at different times in the second half.

Turning point: It was a six-point game after a 9-2 Belmont rally that concluded with a Blake Jenkins tip-in with 14:46 to play. Uh oh, right? Wrong. Georgetown opened the game back up via a Belmont goaltending call, a Bruins turnover on their next possession, a Henry Sims turnaround hook and a Greg Whittington dunk. And just like that the Hoyas had a double-digit lead again.

Key player: Jason Clark could not be stopped. He scored 21 points and went 9-for-12 from the field.

Key stat: Belmont, one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country this season, recorded a 4-for-12 mark from the 3-point line in the second half.

Miscellaneous: Belmont had the right idea. The Bruins mixed things up in the first half and tried to find their shooters. But Georgetown was simply too long and athletic. … Was that really a goaltending call in the second half? From here, it looked questionable. … This was a trendy upset pick not because of the matchup but because of Georgetown’s early exits in recent years. On paper, however, it was a horrible matchup. Belmont needs 3s. Georgetown uses its length to protect the arc better than any team in America. Game. Set. Match.

What’s next: Now, it’s Georgetown versus North Carolina State on Sunday. The Wolfpack have a 4-2 record overall against the Hoyas.

After a relatively mild third day of NCAA tournament action Thursday, does Friday promise more excitement? Close games? A buzzer-beater? Something?

Beggars can't be choosers, but we can be hopers. As we pray to the basketball gods for all the tournament has to offer, here's what you should keep an eye on as Friday unfolds.

Five best games:

No. 8 Creighton vs. No. 9 Alabama: Arguably the most intriguing stylistic clash in the entire round of 64, this one puts Creighton's all-offense attack up against one of the nation's most athletic and physical defensive teams. The Bluejays' offense and the Tide's defense both rank among the nation's 10 best per-possession in their respective categories, but the inverse is also true: Creighton's defense (ranked No. 180 in kenpom) and Alabama's offense (ranked No. 112) serve as each team's obvious weakness. It's unstoppable force/immovable object stuff, and it should be fascinating to watch.

No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 9 Saint Louis: It's not uncommon to see a team that looks considerably better than its NCAA tournament seed. It is uncommon to see two in the same second-round game, but that will be the case when the streaking Tigers and the defensively stalwart Billikens match up Friday. Both teams are ranked among kenpom.com's top 15 in overall adjusted efficiency. Memphis boasts a hyper-talented lineup led by forward Will Barton; Saint Louis has the benefit of Rick Majerus' tried-and-true defensive style and his strategic tournament superiority. If Saint Louis can keep Barton in check, and find a way to keep forward Tarik Black off the offensive glass (no easy feat, that), it may be able to hold off a Memphis team capable of a very deep run in this field.

No. 6 Cincinnati vs. No. 11 Texas: The Longhorns limped into the tournament, but as a team with talented guards -- like leading scorer J'Covan Brown and steady freshman Myck Kabongo -- and one that challenged the top teams in the Big 12 throughout the season (usually coming up just short), they represent a fantastic value as a No. 11 seed. Cincinnati forward Yancy Gates will have to take advantage of a favorable matchup with Clint Chapman in the post. If he doesn't, Texas has the chops to hang around in this game for 40 minutes -- and maybe even finish with a win.

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Virginia: Before we crown Creighton-Alabama with the "most stylistically fascinating" superlative, let's reserve some consideration for Florida-Virginia. The Cavaliers play a drastically slow, packed-in defensive style. The Gators play a spread-out offense that relies primarily on 3-point shooting. Fortunately, they have the players for it, including guard Kenny Boynton, who has put together a quietly remarkable season launching the basketball from range. But Florida's lack of defense leaves it vulnerable if the shooters go cold, and UVa will look to take advantage on the other end.

No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 Purdue: Though the Boilermakers would never admit it, they may have breathed a sigh of relief when they saw their second-round tournament matchup. Don't get me wrong: Saint Mary's is for real, an excellent offensive team led by the peerless point guard play of veteran Matthew Dellavedova. But the Gaels don't have much of an interior presence, which is the one personnel area in which the Boilermakers -- who rely on the guard play of Lewis Jackson, Ryne Smith and outside-in forward Robbie Hummel -- are legitimately vulnerable. Expect a lot of fluid motion offense, a lot of outside shots and a close, hard-fought game in Omaha.

No. 5 Temple vs. No. 12 South Florida: More stylistic clash potential! Take three! The Owls -- for years a grind-it-out defensive team under coach Fran Dunphy -- have flipped the script in 2012, morphing into a high-flying offensive juggernaut led by guards Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt. South Florida, on the other hand, looks a bit like Temple used to ... but even uglier and slower and practically impossible to score against.

Upset alert:

No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 16 LIU Brooklyn: Just kidding! All due respect to the Blackbirds, it ain't happening. (Just had to make sure you will still paying attention is all.)

No. 3 Georgetown vs. No. 14 Belmont: If America has a favorite sleeper candidate this season -- other than VCU and the now-lamented Long Beach State 49ers -- it is Rick Byrd's Belmont team. The Bruins were a sleeper favorite last season, too, but they caught a bad matchup in the second round in Wisconsin. They're back with much the same team this season, and laptops love them; Belmont ranks No. 9 in LRMC, No. 23 overall in the kenpom.com rankings and No. 35 overall in the BPI. But they've got another tough matchup in Georgetown, which plays a stifling, lanky zone defense that makes everything difficult for its opponents. But if Scott Saunders and Mick Hedgepeth can handle Georgetown center Henry Sims, the Bruins are more than capable of knocking off the Hoyas -- and sticking around for a while, too.

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Lehigh: Do I think this will happen? No. Duke has too much on the perimeter to be shut down by this Lehigh bunch. But could it? Sure. The Blue Devils beat a lot of good teams this season, which helped them to a No. 2 seed, but by per-possession efficiency standards Duke is easily the weakest of the No. 2 seeds. Lehigh, on the other hand, is not your typical No. 15 seed, and it has a secret weapon -- guard C.J. McCollum, one of the nation's most underrated scorers, who at the very least will give Duke's occasionally suspect guard defenders something to think about for all 40 minutes.

No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 Detroit: Speaking of deceptive 15-seeds, Detroit might be the most talented 15-seed in the history of the tournament. That's because guard Ray McCallum Jr. -- son of coach Ray McCallum Sr. -- turned down a host of elite programs to play for his dad two years ago, while transfer forward Eli Holman, a former Indiana prospect, patrols the middle with more athleticism than you usually see from Horizon League forwards. Kansas should win this game but the Titans have talent and they'll definitely give it a go.

No. 11 NC State vs. No. 6 San Diego State: San Diego State has achieved in remarkable fashion this season, relative to its talent, but will the run come to an end Friday? There's reason to think so: NC State enters the tournament playing the best basketball of its season (it dispatched Virginia and nearly took down UNC in the ACC tournament last weekend), and the young Wolfpack will be eager to prove they are already ready for the bright lights.

Players to watch:

Doug McDermott, Creighton: You know the deal by now: McDermott is at once one of the nation's most productive and most efficient scorers, and his twin abilities to turn on both shoulders in the post or step outside and knock down the 3 makes him a lethal offensive option. But he'll have to be extra-good Friday, as Alabama's JaMychal Green is one of the few defenders in the country able to guard McDermott both inside and out.

Tu Holloway, Xavier: It wasn't pretty, but Xavier made it to the tournament. Now what? This team is still talented, particularly on the perimeter, and if Holloway and running mate Mark Lyons can summon some of what led them to clutch comeback wins over Vanderbilt and Purdue before their brawl with Cincinnati, they could be an interesting out in the West region.

J'Covan Brown, Texas: Brown is always scoring. The question is whether he's getting his points efficiently, and whether the Longhorns' offense is conducive to scores in the flow of the offense. If they are, they can hang with Cincinnati.

Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure: In the Bonnies' A-10 title win over Xavier, Nicholson dropped 26 points, 14 rebounds and 8 -- yes, eight -- blocks. He's an NBA talent with the body to match. But will Nicholson be able to dominate the Seminoles' physical frontcourt? With Bernard James lined up across from him, this will the most difficult matchup Nicholson has seen all season.

Mike Scott, Virginia: If the Cavaliers are going to drop No. 7-seeded Florida in the second round Friday, they're going to have to get a massive effort from Scott, the dominant focal point of their slow, cautious offense. Scott has been hyper-efficient on the offensive end all season, but he could struggle against Florida forward Patric Young, one of the few big men in the nation with the athleticism and height to check Scott effectively. And if Scott doesn't score, UVa's chances are probably slim.

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- The afternoon slate of NCAA tournament games at Nationwide Arena on Friday will feature a pair of intriguing matchups. San Diego State will try to stop NC State from running away with the upset -- literally. And Belmont versus Georgetown pits one of the nation’s top 3-point shooting teams against the squad that’s most equipped to defend it.

No. 11 NC State (22-12) vs. No. 6 San Diego State (26-7), 12:40 p.m. ET

Last year, San Diego State charmed the country with its surge to the Sweet 16 as former Aztecs star Kawhi Leonard led the way. But Steve Fisher lost four starters from that team. Preseason projections suggested that the Aztecs would not come close to duplicating last season’s achievements.

But this program has proved its doubters wrong this year.

The Aztecs shared the Mountain West crown with New Mexico during the regular season. They’re undersized and they’re not very deep, but they’ve held their opponents to a 40 percent shooting clip, second in the conference.

Jamaal Franklin (17.2 points per game) and Chase Tapley (15.7 ppg) are a potent duo for a program that’s overcome adversity in close games. They’re 4-0 in overtime this season.

“It helped a lot. The NCAA tournament, you get those kind of games like every night, close barn-burning games, and those games at the beginning of the year, early in the year, like UC Santa Barbara, the Creighton game, games like that really prepared us for this moment we have right now,” Tapley said.

The Aztecs have been here before. The bright lights of March are not new for the program.

When Mark Gottfried took the Wolfpack job last summer, however, he understood that he’d have to rebuild a winning tradition at NC State.

Leading the Wolfpack to its first NCAA tournament bid since 2006 is a start.

“Our banners, national championship banners are hanging in our gym,” he said. “Our guys see them every day. And they understand the tradition and the history of NC State. Been in three Final Fours, won two national championships. So our players are very well aware of that.”

There were a multitude of reasons to doubt both teams’ chances of reaching March Madness.

To stay here, however, San Diego State will have to overcome its size disadvantage and try to control the tempo against a NC State team that likes to run. The Wolfpack will have to take advantage of their athleticism and transition offense to beat the Aztecs.

NC State’s scoring offense (73.6 ppg and 81^st in Ken Pomeroy’s tempo ratings) was third behind North Carolina’s and Duke’s in the ACC. C.J. Leslie (14.6 ppg) leads five Wolfpack players in double figures.

San Diego State hopes to limit NC State’s ability to fully utilize its talent by slowing the game down in a matchup against a squad that’s shooting 46.3 percent from the field.

But the Aztecs said they feel comfortable picking up the pace, too.

“[We’re] not going to get in a transition game, really pick our spots here and there and run,” SDSU’s Xavier Thames said. “And whatever they want to play, we can play. We could play a slow-down game, we could play a transition game.”

NC State has to worry about matching up with an Aztecs team that employs a four-guard set.

“I feel that we have four guys on the perimeter, including C.J. Leslie, that can guard any position, 1 through 4,” C.J. Williams said.

No. 14 Belmont (27-7) vs. No. 3 Georgetown (23-8), 3:10 p.m. ET

It seems simple.

Belmont loves the 3-ball (8.8 per game, 10^th in the nation). Georgetown plays the best perimeter defense in America (27 percent 3-point field goal percentage allowed).

Something has to give when the Bruins face the Hoyas in this second-round matchup in the NCAA tournament, right?

“We gotta penetrate when we can and be strong when we penetrate and find shooters on the perimeter and hopefully get inside the defense,” Belmont’s Kerron Johnson said.

Jason Clark said Georgetown’s preparations have focused on neutralizing Belmont’s 3-point barrages.

“That’s one thing Coach [John Thompson III] has been stressing all this week at practice is defending the 3-point line, not letting them get 3-point shots,” he said.

Thompson, however, says it’s not that simple.

The Bruins like to run (13^th in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings) and they’re a great passing team (17.4 assists per game, fifth in the nation). Belmont’s 81.5 ppg makes the Bruins the fourth best scoring offense in America.

All-Atlantic Sun guards Ian Clark, the conference’s defensive player of the year, Drew Hanlen and Johnson anchor Belmont. But Mick Hedgepeth (double-double in conference tourney title game) and Scott Saunders (10.2 ppg, 5.0 rebounds per game) can hurt opponents inside.

“Obviously, they have a terrific shooting team, but at the same time, if you get spaced out, if you start just chasing those shooters, their post players are very good and they’re … a very good passing team," Thompson said. "… Protecting the 3-point line and stopping shooters is important, but they’re much more complex than that.”

But Belmont will need one of its best efforts of the year to upset the Hoyas. The Bruins lost to Duke by a point in their season opener. So they won’t be intimidated.

The Hoyas have shot 46.3 percent from the field, the No. 2 mark in the Big East. Otto Porter and Henry Sims could bully the Bruins inside. Hollis Thompson is dangerous from outside (44.4 percent from beyond the arc) and Jason Clark (13.9 ppg) is a gamer.

This has been a trendy upset pick since the matchup was announced on Selection Sunday. But Georgetown is a team that’s built to control the Bruins.

But the two teams expect a battle.

Both know March Madness heartbreak.

Wisconsin sent Belmont -- a team looking for its first NCAA tournament victory in its fifth appearance -- home early last year.

Georgetown has lost back-to-back opening-round games to lower seeds. The early losses damaged the Hoyas’ postseason reputation and fueled some of this season’s upset predictions.

Sims, however, said the only way to change that is to advance.

“It’s hard for people to forget what happened until you make something different happen,” he said.