ESPN Men's Basketball

For the next month or so, our friends at The Mag are previewing one high-profile school per day for their Summer Buzz series. For the sake of all that is synergistic, yours truly will be attempting the same, complementing each comprehensive Insider preview with some adjusted efficiency fun. Today's subject? Villanova . Up next? Tennessee.

Throughout former All-American Scottie Reynolds' tenure at Villanova, the Wildcats had a familiar defensive tendency. They fouled. Correction: They fouled a lot.

The thing is, for the first three years of Reynolds' tenure, it didn't seem to matter. In 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09, Villanova always ranked below the Division I average -- including two seasons far below it -- in opponent free throw rate. But those same three years saw the Wildcats post adjusted defensive efficiency rankings of Nos. 18, 34, and 15, respectively. How? By taking care of the other three defensive factors (opponents' offensive rebounding percentage, effective field goal percentage, and turnover percentage) well enough that a few free throws here and there didn't make much difference.

Then, in 2009-10, the wheels came off. Villanova's defense wasn't abysmal, but in allowing 94.0 points per 100 possessions it ranked No. 62 in the country. For much of the season, we assumed Villanova would compete for a Final Four spot. Even during a late-season swoon, most assumed 'Nova was better than they were playing. In the end, though, maybe they weren't. Maybe their defensive deficiencies were just too much to overcome. The offense, after all, was pretty darn good.

All of which is a roundabout way of saying this much: Scottie Reynolds might be gone, and the Wildcats will usher in a new wave of talented players, but the foul woes that plagued Villanova are likely to remain.

After all, the Wildcats were fouling long before Reynolds arrived. (And Reynolds, to his credit, had the lowest fouls committed per 40 minutes mark of anyone on 2009-10's team.) Only once since 2004-05 has a Jay Wright-coached team ranked in the top 200 in opponents' free throw rate. That year was 2005-06; Villanova ranked No. 198. There may be something systematic at work here.

More pertinent, though, is the increased visibility of a suite of Villanova players who committed their share of fouls last season. There's Corey Fisher (3.7 fouls committed per 40 minutes) Antonio Pena (4.9), Maalik Wayns (4.9), Mouphtaou Yarou (6.3) and Maurice Sutton (7.8 [!]). Isiah Armwood gets a pass for his limited usage last season, but even he committed 6.6 fouls per 40. Read together, those tallies look less like foul averages and more like the collective GPAs of valedictorian candidates at one of those high schools that gives extra GPA credit for A+ grades and advanced placement classes. ("What was your high school GPA?" "7.4!" Uh, what?)

The point is, there are still plenty of foul-prone players on this team. Some of them have major roles already. Some of them will be expected to step in. Either way, they're likely to keep committing fouls.

Naturally, that doesn't doom Villanova's season. Quite the contrary: If Villanova has shown one ability in Wright's tenure, it's that his teams are often able to overcome their willingness to send opponents to the line so frequently.

There is plenty of good news about this Villanova team, too. With a glut of big men ready to step in and take on larger roles -- especially senior forward Pena -- the Wildcats could be as balanced as any team Wright has ever coached. They might not need to rely on stellar guard play. They might not need the individual brilliance of a player like Reynolds.

And perhaps most importantly, a bigger and more balanced Villanova lineup -- one that can score without playing three or four guards -- could help the Wildcats cut down on those fouls. The Big East is a big conference; being bigger can only help. That goes for shoring up the defensive glass, too.

Whatever the improvements, though, it's hard to imagine a young team that commits as many fouls as the 2009-10 Wildcats did getting anywhere near the Final Four. Villanova remains talented. They might be more balanced than ever. But unless they morph into the nation's best offense (unlikely given Reynolds' offensive efficiency) or figure out a way to create more turnovers (possible, I guess), or learn to keep opponents of the glass (doable, especially with more size and depth), they're on track to suffer through the same issues as 2009-10's impressive but ultimately disappointing team.

For the next month or so, our friends at The Mag are previewing one high-profile school per day for their Summer Buzz series. For the sake of all that is synergistic, yours truly will be attempting the same, complementing each comprehensive Insider preview with some adjusted efficiency fun. Today's subject? Georgetown. Up next? Villanova.

The Georgetown Hoyas will miss Greg Monroe. That much is easy.

After all, it's not every day you send a surefire lottery pick to the NBA draft. Monroe was a unique player, a center-sized lefty with small forward skills who created off the high block in John Thompson's offense with preternatural vision. With few viable candidates ready to take his place immediately -- Greg Monroes are tough to find -- Georgetown will suffer from his departure. Duh.

There is good news and bad news for Georgetown here. The good news: The Hoyas will still be a very good offensive team without their talented center. The bad news: What about defense?

Since John Thompson III took over at Georgetown, his teams have played with a specific identity. Thompson likes to slow the game down, wear opposing defenses down, and bank on the fact that his team will be able to create good looks from a half court set. Thompson's best teams have complemented that style with defensive rigor. The Jeff Green- and Roy Hibbert-led 2006-07 team played at a glacial pace -- 59.9 possessions per game -- but had the second-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country and the 20th-best adjusted defensive efficiency. A year later, Georgetown's defense was its primary strength. A year after that, the same rule applied (though Georgetown lacked the hyper-efficient offense to go along with it.)

In 2009-10, Georgetown's defense slipped. The Hoyas were very good on the offensive end, scoring 1.17 adjusted points per possession, good for a No. 9 national ranking in the category. But their defense, which gave up .926 adjusted points per possession, was the worst it's been since 2004-05, Thompson's first year with the program.

Naturally, Monroe had plenty to do with Georgetown's offensive success. He played a ton of minutes and took a lot of shots, and his ability to score from inside gave the Hoyas an inside-out combo most teams spend years trying to put together.

But Monroe's absence stands to hurt Georgetown's offense far less than it hurts their defense. Consider the players staying in D.C. There's guard Austin Freeman, who had one of the Big East's highest offensive ratings (119.7) among players with at least 20 percent of his team's possessions used. Freeman was among the best shooters in the country last year.

There's guard Chris Wright, whose offensive rating was five points higher than Monroe's (111.7 to 106.2). And there's guard Jason Clark, the team's best shooter, who ranked No. 34 nationally in effective field goal percentage.

Is this a case of Monroe creating opportunities for players to get wide open looks? Or of Monroe's offensive capability being slightly overrated?

Meanwhile, back on the defensive end, the Hoyas were merely average for a couple of reasons. For one, they rarely forced opponents into turnovers. But perhaps more importantly, they allowed offensive rebounders to grab 32.1 percent of their misses, which put them just above average in all of Division I. Why does this matter? Because Monroe accounted for 25.2 percent of those available defensive rebounds, the 26th-best personal mark in the country. No one else on the Hoyas even came close.

Georgetown was always going to be a guard-heavy team in the wake of Monroe's departure; he was their featured big man, and with the possible exception of a few recruits, there isn't anyone capable of filling his large shoes.

But even without Monroe, Georgetown still returns huge chunks of its offensive skill in 2009-10. Where they'll miss Monroe is where they need him most: defense. If Georgetown can recalibrate its defensive style -- maybe utilize a four-guard lineup and press out to 35-feet, which would hopefully force more turnovers -- they could possibly escape last year's fate.

As it stands, the Hoyas seem primed for another season of offensive mastery complimented by just-OK defensive play. Which could be worse, considering last year's season. But without Monroe, "could be worse" could quickly devolve into "just OK," and few Georgetown fans would be quite so happy with that.

For the next month or so, our friends at The Mag are previewing one high-profile school per day for their Summer Buzz series. For the sake of all that is synergistic, yours truly will be attempting the same, complementing each comprehensive Insider preview with some adjusted efficiency fun. Today's subjects? Butler and Syracuse. (For today's take on Butler, click here.) Up next? Georgetown.

2009-10's Syracuse season opened with a whimper. It ended with a Sweet Sixteen loss to Butler. But between those low lights -- an exhibition loss to the mighty LeMoyne Dolphins and an offensively dormant upset at the hands of an elite Butler defense -- the Orange were as consistently good as any team in the country.

A few months removed from that brilliant effort, it's easy to forget that most people didn't project Syracuse as a top 25 team, let alone a national title contender. The departures of Jonny Flynn, Eric Devendorf and Paul Harris made most onlookers assume the Cuse would go through the typical big-program standby year while coach Jim Boeheim's talented recruits figured out the Big East for themselves.

Of course, that's because we didn't know about Wes Johnson, the Iowa State transfer whom Boeheim oh-so-accurately predicted as a top 10 draft pick back when the rest of us were bleating, "Wes who?" Boeheim was right. Johnson was that good. And combined with the strong interior play of Arinze Onauku and Kris Joseph, the deadly accurate shooting of Andy Rautins, and the always-tricky 2-3 zone, Syracuse was very much a member of the elite.

With Johnson, Rautins, and Onauku gone, Syracuse loses its second Big Three in two years. But this time, most college hoops fans shouldn't be so eager to write the Orange off.

Why? Because the 2010-11 Orange could do the same thing the 2009-10 Orange did: Absorb talented, veteran losses, incorporate newcomers seamlessly, and enjoy yet another year at the top of the college hoops dogpile.

Much of that will come down to the play of Boeheim's much-touted newcomers. Seven-foot, 274-pound Brazilian Fabricio Melo -- heretofore and forever known as "Fab," which is about as awesome a nickname as you can ask for -- is the No. 1 center in the class of 2010. At this point in his development, Melo specializes in low-post scoring, meaning he could be the perfect replacement for the efficient Onauku.

Whether Syracuse can weather the loss of Johnson on the defensive end -- who led the Cuse in defensive rebounding rate last season and posted a 5.7 percent block percentage, second only on the team to bench forward Rick Jackson -- will hinge on whether Melo can shorten his learning curve considerably and use his size to dominate the middle of Syracuse's zone in year one.

Melo has been getting much of the Syracuse-related recruiting attention, but there's also Dion Waiters, the No. 2 shooting guard in the incoming class. According to ESPNU's scouts, Waiters is already an elite offensive threat who attacks the rim with impressive explosion and body control.

There are a few key stats the Orange must approximate if they want to have a repeat of last year's season. The biggest is shooting: With a team effective field goal percentage of 57.6, Syracuse was the second-best shooting team in the country in 2009-10. It wasn't hard to see why: Johnson and Rautins were hyper-efficient shooters from the perimeter, while Onauku and Kris Joseph pounded the ball inside and scored from under the hoop. (I'd love to see a highlight reel of baskets from four feet or less by Syracuse last year. Sometimes, watching the Cuse play felt like watching that reel.) That dynamic attack made Syracuse the eighth-most efficient offense in the country.

Melo should help where the latter is concerned. For the former, Syracuse's ability to stay versatile from the wing -- and to make a few buckets from beyond the arc -- will have to come by committee. Brandon Triche and Mookie Jones both shot a higher FG percentage than Johnson last season; Jones actually shot better than every other Orangeman save Onuaku. (Yes, including Rautins.) Triche and fellow backcourt mate Scoop Jardine appear poised to start together, with Jardine at the point and Triche in the Rautins-esque shooting combo role. If Waiters can provide shooting of his own, Syracuse should be able to keep their jump-shooting game in the same ballpark as last season's impressive effort.

There's no getting around the fact that Syracuse lost much of its attack this spring. Johnson was an NBA-ready talent with versatility to spare. Rautins, though prone to turnovers, was a hot shooter who kept the Syracuse offense humming. Onuaku made the most of his touches in the lane. All three did different things; all three contributed in big ways to the team's success.

But there's a sneaky little fact about Syracuse's efficiency profile: Three of the team's top four possession contributors return in 2010. Those three are Jardine, Triche, and Jones. All three will feature prominently in the new look Cuse, and all three have skill sets that can combine to make up what Syracuse lost in the backcourt departures of Rautins and Johnson.

Factor in a pair of top-level recruits, including one that should help shore up the loss of Onuaku in the post, and it would almost be surprising if Syracuse didn't succeed in the coming season. They may not be as good as last year's team. We might not be fitting Syracuse for a No. 1 seed come March. But none of Syracuse's personnel losses are devastating or irreplaceable, especially not on a team this deep and talented.

The Big Three is gone -- again -- but Syracuse can adapt. Boeheim's program is humming. Warning to the college hoops minds of the world: Don't leave Syracuse out of your top 25 this time.

For the next month or so, our friends at The Mag are previewing one high-profile school per day for their Summer Buzz series. For the sake of all that is synergistic, yours truly will be attempting the same, complementing each comprehensive Insider preview with some adjusted efficiency fun. Today's subject: Louisville . Up next? Baylor.

The three teams we've previewed thus far in Summer Buzz all have one thing in common: speed.

North Carolina always plays fast, and that won't change in 2010-11. Duke crept to a halt in 2009-10 on their way to an NCAA title, but new personnel dictates a major increase in tempo. And Kentucky, which eschewed the dribble-drive motion offense last year, plans on returning to the fast-paced system that helped lead John Calipari to his greatest successes at Memphis.

Fitting then, that the fourth team in these previews plans on doing much the same. This bit from Rick Pitino in today's Summer Buzz Mag feature pretty much says it all:

"We're going to play faster than we've ever played here before," he says. "We're going to break on every opportunity and try and get the ball past midcourt in fewer than four seconds. And we're going to incorporate our own personal 24-second clock. We feel we can manufacture points that way." [...] Pitino also plans to press off of every made basket and dead ball and will implement varying types of full-court pressure, depending on the type of field goal converted. Also, expect a lot more man-to-man defense.

Last May, New Yorker writer and all-around Famous Author Guy Malcolm Gladwell wrote a piece called "How underdogs can win." Gladwell's thesis argued that underdogs give themselves the best chance of winning when they change the method of competition. In ancient war, this meant "waging war over the broadest territory possible." In basketball, it meant pressing.

There were a few problems with Gladwell's thesis, one of which involved Pitino's time at Kentucky. Gladwell saw Kentucky's success in the late 1990s as a product of Pitino's relentless full-court press and fast-break system, as though Pitino's talent-laden Kentucky title teams were somehow underdogs in college hoops. They weren't. They were, for all intents and purposes, Goliath.

The 2010-11 Louisville Cardinals are not that. A recruiting drought -- thanks largely to the arrival of Calipari at Kentucky -- and the early departure of forward Samardo Samuels mean Louisville will, in fact, be less talented than most of the elite teams in college basketball in 2010-11. Can Pitino minimize that gap in talent by running all the time? Can his old-school fast-break tactics change the nature of the competition? We get to watch the uptempo underdog thesis in action this season, and it couldn't have happened at a more appropriate school.

Given the Cardinals' 2009-10 output, their fans will just be happy to see some entertaining basketball again. Louisville ranked No. 170 in adjusted tempo last season, averaging 67.3 possessions per game, a speed more appropriate for the Big Ten than any team coached by a full-court guru. That pace will have to skyrocket if Pitino's hopes of uptempo efficiency are to bear fruit.

More than anything, though, the Cardinals must learn to play defense again. Louisville ranked No. 79 in adjusted defensive efficiency in 2009-10. When the full-court press didn't work, Pitino sat his team back in a zone, which, in turn, made things even easier for opponents. If Louisville adopts the pace Pitino is talking about, they don't have to be a great defensive team. But they have to be a good one.

This is, more than speeding things up, perhaps Louisville's biggest impending challenge. Can untested sophomore Peyton Siva pressure the ball for 80 feet? Can Memphis transfer Robert Sallie complement his shooting with defense? Without top recruit Justin Coleman (ineligible for academic reasons), does Louisville have the backcourt depth to play all-out? Can Louisville's athletic young front court keep up?

The most important question in all this: What if they can't? Could Pitino's system be enough? Does uptempo basketball really level the playing field? Louisville won't be a contender in 2010-11, and they might not factor much into your bracket, but watching them find the answers to these questions should be more than enough to keep fans -- not just Louisville fans, but hoops heads in general -- interested.