ESPN Men's Basketball

As reporters huddled around Bruce Weber for what might have been one of his final news conferences as Illinois head coach, a Big Ten tournament official entered the room to say that time had nearly expired.

“Two minutes,” he yelled.

Weber’s team had just lost to Iowa 64-61 in the opening round of the conference tournament. The loss might have spelled the end of his tenure at Illinois, one that reached its peak with an appearance in the national title game in 2005. But in a win-now landscape, 12 losses in his team’s last 14 games blemished his legacy.

“One minute,” the tourney official announced.

Weber’s flushed face, hoarseness and measured pace suggested that the trials of recent months had truly taken a toll. With each query, he tried to maintain a sense of normalcy.

But when asked about the support he’s received throughout his challenges this season, Weber’s eyes welled up, his voice cracked and tears collected on the bottom rim of his eyelids.

“I can’t explain to you how many people have contacted me. I mean, literally thousands. Guys who don’t even know me,” Weber said.

“We’re going to be closing the Illinois locker room,” the Big Ten tournament official announced again.

Weber’s remarks concluded with talk of a meeting with Illinois athletic director Mike Thomas. No specifics. A brief smile.

And with that, Weber walked into a room and closed the door, unsure of his fate.

The struggles that plagued his program this season were crippling again Thursday.

The Illini committed 12 turnovers. NBA-bound Meyers Leonard scored a team-high 18 points (9-for-11), but he should have had more, given the number of times his teammates failed to find him.

Brandon Paul, the team’s leading scorer entering the game, recorded four points (2-for-11) in what he called one of the worst performances of his career.

“We just have, I feel, like every piece that a team could possibly need, where we’re just missing that one thing,” Leonard said.

There were missed dunks and layups. There were several bad shots that seemed to follow the same pattern. With the shot clock at Bankers Life Fieldhouse set to expire, the Illini would waste the possession with an NBA-range 3-pointer or an off-balance jump shot.

When Iowa’s Aaron White secured a vital offensive rebound in the final seconds, Illini players looked at one another seeking answers. At one point they were leading with a score of 40-33.

Missed opportunities. They’ve defined the entire season for a team that beat Gonzaga in the nonconference season and Ohio State (ranked fifth at the time) on Jan. 10.

After Thursday’s game, Weber said the gap after that Ohio State victory might have squelched the team’s momentum. The Illini didn’t play for nine days and returned to action with a 54-52 loss at Penn State on Jan. 19. It was the beginning of a 2-12 stretch that will likely lead to the NIT.

“We started out pretty well. We didn’t play pretty basketball, but we were finding ways to win with defense and hustle and togetherness, and won some close games,” Weber said. “I’m sure a lot of people feel maybe the Ohio State game was the turning point, because all of a sudden expectations changed, mind-sets changed. And then I don’t think it was really a good situation after Ohio State to have nine days off.”

Even after the Illini’s title-game appearance in '05, Weber scored some of the top recruits in the Big Ten and the country. Demetri McCamey, Jereme Richmond, Leonard and others provided the Illini with the firepower to compete in the Big Ten and beyond.

But Weber never moved the Illini past the second round of the NCAA tournament after that loss to North Carolina in the national championship game. This season’s difficulties seemed as baffling as any he’s had in recent years. The Big Ten was rebuilding. The Illini appeared to have a promising crew with Leonard, Paul and D.J. Richardson leading the way.

A team that was expected to compete for the Big Ten title, however, finished at the bottom of the league. As a result, negative speculation about Weber’s job status has grown.

“No, not at all. You hear stuff going around campus. People say stuff here and there. We still did what we had to do,” Richardson said about the rumors’ impact on the team.

But the chatter couldn’t have helped this squad as it tried to regain a portion of its swagger while the losses accumulated.

And now, Weber, Illini fans, players and staffers will have to wait for Thomas’ verdict, one that isn't expected to extend his coach’s time in Champaign.

Weber reached the NCAA title game seven years ago. That’s an eternity in today’s college basketball climate. Winning, however, changes the perceptions of a program. Fans and supporters crave more.

And Weber, in the years that followed that magical 2004-05 campaign, couldn’t give them want they wanted.

Only time will tell if he’ll have another opportunity to try.

Weber opened his postgame presser by saying, “I just feel bad for [players] that they didn’t have more success.”

The latter, in high major college basketball, is all that matters.

1. The Illini finally got that they have something to play for: themselves. In their win over Iowa Sunday, Illinois actually looked like a team that still cared about playing and fighting for an NCAA tournament berth. Meyers Leonard and Brandon Paul responded to Bruce Weber and the staff. The Illini could still make the bid process interesting if they can beat Michigan and win at Wisconsin this week.

2. Colorado coach Tad Boyle should be the Pac-12 coach of the year. The Buffaloes, who lost their best two players off last season’s team, won their 11th game in the conference with a 13-point win over Cal. The Buffaloes have no business finishing with a bye as a top-four seed in the Pac-12 tournament, yet can do so with a win at Oregon Thursday. If the Buffaloes didn’t get worked by Stanford by 24 at home (odd) then taking a Pac-12 title away from co-favorite Washington could have been a possibility.

3. Miami took one step closer to a tournament bid by beating Florida State Sunday. But Miami will have to keep winning if Reggie Johnson isn’t cleared by the NCAA. The selection committee has to judge the 'Canes without him from this point forward. If he returns then the overall body of work will be back in play. But if he doesn’t and Miami were to lose at NC State Wednesday (Boston College is next to close the season) then it will be a tough call.

The Morning After is our semi-daily recap of the night's best basketball action. Political leanings aside, it found last night's debate utterly fascinating.

Penn State 54, No. 25 Illinois 52: The last time we saw the Fighting Illini, they were at home against one of the best teams in the country, Ohio State. The crowd was rolling. Brandon Paul was, too. The shooting guard had his dream game, the Platonic ideal of an individual offensive performance, the kind of game he'll remember forever: 43 points, 11-of-15 from the field, 8-of-10 from 3, 13-of-15 from the free throw line. Illinois won 79-74.

Nine days later, that incredible outlier of a performance says as much about this Illini offense as any of Illinois' other substandard performances in Big Ten play to date -- which, for the record, have been pretty much all of them. When you get that kind of night from Brandon Paul, and you just narrowly edge the Buckeyes by five points at home, well, maybe that's not such a good sign.

With the exception of their performance against Ohio State, the Illini have for much of the season -- and particularly in conference play, despite their 4-1 (now 4-2) start -- been one of the more anemic offenses in the Big Ten. Nine days after their rollicking win, and just a few days after Michigan State and Indiana helped them become the only one-loss team in the Big Ten to date, the Illini did what they have been doing for pretty much the entire season, especially since the start of conference play. They turned the ball over way too often.

Last night's turnover rate at Penn State -- 25.0 percent -- led Illinois to score just .93 points per possession at Penn State. It also cemented Illinois' status as the Big Ten's most turnover-prone squad: As ESPN Insider/Basketball Prospectus oracle John Gasaway tweeted Thursday night: "Including tonight's loss @ Penn State, Illinois has given the ball away on 24% of their possessions in-conf, worst in the league by far." When you open Illinois' profile on Statsheet, and peer into its handy four-factors-oriented game stats, you see a team that has given the ball away on more than 22 percent of its possessions five out of six times in conference play. Even against Ohio State, despite all of Paul's brilliance, Bruce Weber's team coughed it up 27.3 percent of the time.

For much of the season, anyone who has watched Illinois play has asked -- nay, begged! -- for the Illini to stop taking outside shots, to stop running so much offense through Paul, to getting beast-mode sophomore forward Meyers Leonard more touches on the low block. It hasn't happened. Sure, Leonard took 12 shots Thursday night; he made six en route to a solid 15-point outing. But Paul and fellow guards D.J. Richardson, Sammy Maniscalco (can I call him Sammy?) and Joseph Bertrand combined for 33 shot attempts of their own. They made nine. Throw in all the turnovers, and of course it's no surprise the Illini scored just 52 points in 56 possessions Thursday night.

This is the great challenge of Illinois' season. The Illini are talented, no question about that. They defend better than any recent Weber-coached team. At the beginning of the year, I expected that the losses of seniors Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale -- three players who insisted on taking inefficient shots, didn't bang on the low block, and (especially McCamey) never stopped the ball at the point of attack the way Weber's guards have to -- would amount to addition-by-subtraction on both ends of the floor.

That's half right. The Illini do defend. That's good news; it will keep them in games and give them chances to win, even on the road. But this iteration is even less efficient on offense than 2011's. Until Leonard becomes the single focal point of this offense -- or at least until Illinois stops giving the ball away so frequently and so carelessly -- this team's ceiling will continue to be much lower than it should. Meanwhile, we should view the Ohio State win less as a grandiose sign of improvement and more like the outlier it truly was.

In short: The Illini commit way too many turnovers to be consistently successful. The end? We'll see.

Vanderbilt 69, Alabama 59: Advanced statistics seem somewhat beside the point here. On Thursday night, the Crimson Tide couldn't make a shot to save their lives. That's why they lost.

To be fair, we should direct some major credit toward the Vanderbilt Commodores, who are, it should be noted, vastly improved on the defensive end of the floor in SEC play. The Commodores are allowing just .90 ppp to opponents in SEC games, the stingiest mark in conference -- a better figure than Kentucky's Anthony Davis-led defensive juggernaut, even. That's a smallish four-game sample size, of course, so it's not quite predictive of the way the rest of the season will unfold, and that figure has been accomplished against some of the worst of what the SEC has to offer: Auburn, South Carolina, Georgia and now Alabama. (Auburn mustered a mere .60 ppp in its game vs. Vanderbilt. That's just ... wow.) No one is expecting Vanderbilt to become a defensive monster, but if some of what the Commodores have done since mid-December is real, even that marginal improvement is, in general, a sign of big things to come. This team can score just fine, as we saw last night. (That Alabama defense is good, folks.) If it can defend a bit, even better.

Besides, while we're at it, we might as well mention this: Winning on the road in conference play is never easy. When you do, credit is deserved. Consider that credit granted.

But in all honesty, this loss was just as much about Alabama as it was about Vanderbilt -- arguably even more so. I mean, just look at the box score: The Crimson Tide shot 23-of-70 from the field and 6-of-24 from beyond the arc. That's a problem. Why? Apparently, despite the Crimson Tide's 26.9 percent accuracy from beyond the arc -- which ranks them among the five worst long-distance teams in the nation -- no one has broached the topic with Alabama that maybe it should, you know, stop shooting 3s.

It's one thing to struggle on offense, as Alabama does. That's OK. This is one of the best defenses in the country. It doesn't have to set the nylon ablaze every time it hits the court. But when you're this bad from long range, and you possess the kind of physical, athletic frontcourt talents Alabama does, you have no business busting 24 3s against anyone. All that does is lead to long rebounds and secondary breaks which negate that incredibly impressive half-court defense in the process. How counterproductive is that?

The good news? Alabama ranks just No. 300 in the nation in 3-point/FGA ratio. It has served the Crimson Tide well thus far. On Thursday night, Alabama saw what happens when it deviates from that identity. I believe the high school kids at the 7-11 by my house have a phrase for this, typically used (as far as I can tell, because I feel old and out of touch every time I want to grab a Coke Zero) when discussing the merits of "Drake:" Stay in your lane. It applies here.

Coverage links of note: Robbi Pickeral was, per the usual, on hand with North Carolina, which pulled away from Virginia Tech in the second half thanks to a burst of sheer euphoric talent -- and much more intensity.

Everywhere else: Duke rolled over Wake Forest, and the highlight of the night was Doc Rivers' face when his son, Austin, took a horrible, let-me-dribble-for-a-few-seconds-and-then-launch 3-pointer that somehow banked in. Doc's face was a mixture of relief and embarrassment. Fellow parents patted him on the back as he sank his head into his hands. Pure, uncut comedy gold. ... Virginia just trounced Georgia Tech on the road, 70-38. ... St. Mary's remained undefeated in WCC play with a win over Pepperdine. ... NC State handled Boston College. ... and out in Pac-12 play, Cal held on for an excellent three-point win at Washington while Stanford fell prey to Washington State's offensive home cooking. It's hard not to see the Bears as the only obvious Pac-12 favorite going forward.

Editor’s note: ESPN.com writers Eamonn Brennan and Jason King are joined by ESPN Insider John Gasaway to discuss several burning questions in college basketball. Chief among them: what to make of Ohio State?

Which struggling team is more likely to turn it around: Wisconsin or Louisville?

Jason King: I'm not all that confident in either team's chances for a dramatic turnaround, but it wouldn't shock me if Wisconsin still managed to finish between third and fifth in the Big Ten. The Badgers' next six games -- at home against Nebraska, Northwestern and Indiana; on the road against Purdue, Illinois and Penn State -- are all winnable. So there are still plenty of opportunities to re-establish confidence in time for a nice run at the end. Jordan Taylor will snap out of his funk eventually. He has to, right?

John Gasaway: Louisville gets the gift of a home game against DePaul as its next test while Wisconsin has to go to Purdue, but long-term I'll still say the Badgers are in a better position to turn things around. Bo Ryan's team has been sleepwalking, but at some point I think their 3s will start falling again. The Cardinals, on the other hand, might be in something closer to a coma. They've scored just 0.95 points per trip in Big East play thus far.

Eamonn Brennan: Can I say both? I don't think either team is nearly as bad as it has appeared in its past three or four games. That said, I'm a little less worried about Wisconsin than Louisville. The Badgers have managed to play really solid per-possession defense, even in their cold-shooting losses. Louisville, meanwhile, is a much worse offensive team than Wisconsin and relies much more heavily on defense, and the Cardinals just gave up 90 points to Providence on the road. If that's a harbinger of future leniency to come, the Cardinals could be in for a long Big East ride.

Ohio State is healthy now, but is still just 2-2 in its past four. Any concern?

Brennan: Nah. Maybe Ohio State isn't quite the offensive juggernaut it was last season, when Jon Diebler was shooting insanely well from beyond the arc, but the Buckeyes still play very good defense, and their two losses both came on the road in Big Ten play. Indiana appears to be flat-out good. Illinois got a record-setting, historic-level outlier shooting performance -- to the tune of 8-of-10 from 3 and 43 points -- from the usually inefficient Brandon Paul. It happens. The Buckeyes will be fine.

King: I think it's foolish to overreact when a team drops a game or two, especially in early January. But I am a bit surprised that the Buckeyes fell at Illinois, which isn't that great of a team. Ohio State seems to have lost its swagger a bit. But I'm guessing Thad Matta's squad will get it back Sunday against Indiana.

Gasaway: None. Brandon Paul of Illinois had one of the best individual games of the 2000s against the Buckeyes, and the Illini still won by just five points on their home floor. Thad Matta's team resembles this year what Kentucky was last year: an unquestionably talented group that drops some close road games in-conference and gets people unnecessarily worried before mounting a Final Four run.

We practically handed OSU the Big Ten crown in the preseason. Do you still see the Buckeyes taking it? If not, who will it be?

Brennan: I still think the Buckeyes are favorites, but I'd call them co-favorites alongside Michigan State. Tom Izzo hasn't had a team this good on the defensive end in years, and Draymond Green, Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne have returned the Spartans to their all-encompassing identity as one of the nation's best rebounding teams. Those two factors could make the Spartans nearly impossible to beat at home, and very difficult to handle on the road.

Gasaway: They'll have to beat Michigan State, which is looking awfully strong. (Ask Indiana about how their Dec. 28 visit went.) Fortunately, the Spartans and Buckeyes face off against each other twice this season, including the regular-season finale in East Lansing. I'm guessing that game will have some implications for the Big Ten crown.

King: I think Ohio State will still win it. As I mentioned earlier, two road losses aren't enough to make me write off any team -- much less a squad that has enough talent and experience to win an NCAA title. The Buckeyes might have hit a minor dry spell, but they're not going to implode.

We also handed Xavier the Atlantic 10 crown in the preseason. The race appears wide-open now. Who do you see winning it?

Gasaway: Xavier. The Musketeers lost at La Salle (no shame there, by the way -- the Explorers are tough), but Chris Mack's team looks like it’s finally rounding into form after the suspensions stemming from the Cincinnati game on Dec. 10. Last night Xavier hammered Duquesne by 28 at home, and Tu Holloway finally made some shots. This is still the most talented team in the league.

King: Twelve of the league's 13 teams already have a conference loss. And that includes Xavier, which is 2-1 following Wednesday's 28-point win against Duquesne. The lopsided victory was just what the Musketeers needed as Atlantic 10 play heats up. Tu Holloway is too good of a player and Chris Mack is too good of a coach to let things fall apart completely. I think Xavier -- which plays three of its next four games at home -- bounces back and wins yet another conference crown.

Brennan: Believe it or not, I'm going to stick with Xavier. Don't get me wrong: The A-10 race is incredibly wide-open, and I wouldn't be surprised if Temple, Saint Louis, Dayton and even La Salle and St. Joe's all had a piece of the action in the final few weeks of the season. Temple seems to have turned a corner since the Duke win; from a tempo-free standpoint, SLU has been the best team in the league, despite losses to Dayton and Temple. But Xavier is still far and away the most talented team in the league, and as things settle down and this team settles into its conference comfort zone, I think they'll hold off the rest of the contending pack.

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. -- He laughed, not out loud, but certainly to himself every now and again.

How could he not?

Not long ago, Brandon Paul was thinking he was going to stop taking 3-point shots. Maybe not altogether, but certainly cut them down -- go for more of a sure thing, such as drives to the hoop.

His confidence was somewhere near the curbside thanks to an abysmal outside shooting slump that started in the first game of the season and really hadn’t abated since. Paul was shooting 28 percent from beyond the arc, down from 36 percent just last season.

Which is why, as Paul was shooting off his back foot with a hand in his face, beating the shot clock with a swish of the net, knocking down eight of 10 from beyond the arc and scoring 43 points in Illinois’ 79-74 upset of No. 5 Ohio State, he just had to chuckle.

“I did laugh a couple of times,’’ the 6-foot-4 junior said. “After the first few went in, I just decided I was going to keep on shooting. It was big for me because I’d been looking down on myself because the shots weren’t going in.’’

Clearly he was saving up.

Paul’s 43 points were the third most by any player in Illinois history. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he's the only college basketball player over the past 15 seasons to score at least 43 points while attempting 15 or fewer shots. Now that's efficient.

Heck, his point total was only five less than his team scored in a game against St. Bonaventure earlier this season.

Yes, it was a no-he-didn’t, oh-my-goodness jaw-dropper of a night, one that made you shake your head even when you watched it live.

Every shot Paul hit was crucial. He scored 10 points in a row to erase an eight-point first-half deficit and scored the final 15 of the game -- none bigger than his last 3 of the night.

With Illinois clinging to a 71-70 lead and less than a minute left, the Illini got the ball with just 4 seconds left on the shot clock. They inbounded to Paul, who somehow beat the disappearing clock to sink a 3 from the deepest corner of the baseline with Aaron Craft’s hand right in his face.

“We wanted to make him shoot a challenged shot, and he did,’’ OSU coach Thad Matta said. “It was a great shot. We were there. Aaron almost fouled him, but it was as big as an ocean for him tonight.’’

Truth is, it’s not Paul’s final dagger that will haunt the one-time prohibitive Big Ten favorite Buckeyes, who now have dropped to 3-2 in league play. It’s the two-minute span in which Paul didn’t score a point. Ohio State led by 11, 48-37. The fans were groaning, sensing that the Bucks were about to cruise to victory and turn an entertaining game into a walkover.

Instead, the Illini scored nine unanswered points, with an exclamation 3 from D.J. Richardson after Illinois doubled player of the year candidate Jared Sullinger, forcing him into a turnover.

Illinois shot 61 percent from beyond the arc against a team that had allowed opponents to sink only 30 percent from long distance. Illinois also dropped 74 on a team that ranked sixth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 54.9 points per game.

Bruce Weber's team went toe to toe on the boards (28-27 edge to OSU) against a team that outrebounds opponents by an average of 8.7 per game.

That span and those numbers are what will have Ohio State looking hard in the mirror.

That and the unkind bookends of history. Just a year ago, the Buckeyes rallied from a 13-point deficit against the Illini. Weber was quick to remind his team of that during a huddle after it had regained the lead.

No doubt Matta might offer up that bit of information in the future.

“You get to the round of 32 and then the Sweet 16, and you get comfortable,’’ Sullinger said. “You get beat.’’

It would be easy to write off this loss as a bad night for the Buckeyes and a ridiculously good one for Paul. It’s not altogether inaccurate. But Matta looks a little more critically at his team and doesn't think anything is quite that simple.

He watched the film of Ohio State's 76-47 win Saturday against Iowa, a victory most viewed as a sign that OSU was back from its loss to Indiana, and saw things differently. He saw a team that made mistakes despite what looked like an overwhelmingly strong defensive effort. A team that is full of good kids but still needs a presence and a leader, especially at practice.

He’s not ready to sound the alarm, even if his players are starting to ding it for him.

Somewhere in the middle is probably the right reaction. This isn’t wholesale panic time in Columbus, not with three losses to three good teams. Yet in a league as deep and as difficult as the Big Ten, there’s little room for error, especially with what stands as an even more crucial game against Indiana looming Sunday.

“We’re not going to bite on fool’s gold,’’ Matta said. “We have to play better. Unfortunately the numbers [from the Iowa game] were a little bit misconstrued, and those got blown out of the water tonight.’’

Certainly some of that was due to Illinois, or more specifically Paul.

There are some things no one can guard against, and that includes a guy who’s turning a Division I basketball game into a game of H-O-R-S-E.

Paul’s night started out about as horrifically as a night can begin. He coughed up four turnovers in the first seven minutes and didn’t have a bucket to negate the miscues.

It wasn’t exactly what Paul was imagining when he was roused from his pregame nap by a text from his coach that read simply, "This is your time. Be special."

“The way he started," Weber said, "he was special bad."

By the end, he was unforgettably spectacular. Laughing all the way to victory.

Saddle Up is our semi-daily preview of the night's best basketball action. It laughed at this gif, and now it almost feels bad. Almost.

No. 4 Baylor at No. 18 Kansas State, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN3: There's an interesting dynamic brewing around Baylor, even as this team has streaked to a 15-0 start and, as the faceless Stats LLC writer behind our afore-linked pregame preview wrote, its "best start, longest-ever win streak and highest ranking" in the history of the program. Despite all that, people seem to be wondering why the Bears, good as they are, aren't better?

More specifically, they seem to be asking why Perry Jones III, the most gifted athlete in college hoops, doesn't dominate games in proportion to his ability. They ask why Jones, with his soft touch and 6-foot-11 frame and his top-five NBA lottery status doesn't produce the consistent low-post bucket feast of Ohio State forward Jared Sullinger, or the face-melting highlight reel of Thomas Robinson. You look at Jones on the court, and you see what NBA scouts see: Incredible size, incredible length, incredible touch. But the box scores only rarely align with our eyes.

To hear Baylor coach Scott Drew tell it, it sounds rather simple: Jones is still developing:

“I think Perry’s more physical this year. He is stronger, bigger, more mature,” Drew said. "He wasn’t one of those 24-year old freshmen. He’s a younger guy, and as he continues to develop he’ll be able to take more advantage of things inside. And he’s shooting the 3 now. He’s definitely a different player. I think it’s just all age and maturity. That’s what the NBA sees – they see every year he gets closer and closer to it."

Jones may have to grow up in a hurry Tuesday night. There are few interiors in the country as well-suited to match up with Baylor's length and athleticism as the Kansas State Wildcats, which most recently ended Missouri's perfect run with an emphatic effort at home. If Baylor wants to escape the Octagon of Doom with its own perfect record intact, it will have to survive a sluggish, slow, hard-fought defensive battle of a game. In the immortal words of Chicago Bulls local analyst and all-around hilarious human being Stacey King: It's a man's game. No boys allowed. (And yes, I really just wanted to quote Stacey King. Can you blame me?)

The good news for Baylor comes on two fronts:

1. This is a good defensive team in its own right. In fact, with rare exceptions the Bears have been much better defensively team than on the offensive end all season long. The Bears rank No. 35 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Pomeroy; they're No. 13 defensively, allowing opponents .87 points per possession. That's really good.

2. Baylor has a fully developed, capital-M man of its own on the low block. His name is Quincy Acy.

If you're looking for the Bears' interior star thus far this season, look no further. While Jones has posted decent numbers peppered with the occasional flash of brilliance, Acy has been in beast mode all season long. Perhaps that is the best argument for the power of development in college hoops: Acy has a fraction of Jones' natural talent, but more often than not this season he's been the more productive and effective of the two.

At this point, pining for consistent dominance from Perry Jones seems a little bit silly. He's clearly improved, but he's still not quite there yet. The good news for Baylor, especially as the meat of their Big 12 begins to challenge them on a frequent basis (the Bears travel to Kansas Monday and host Missouri next Saturday) is that Jones isn't the only talented player on this roster. There's Acy, there's guards Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip, there's gifted freshman Quincy Miller, there's Cal transfer Gary Franklin. Jones looks like he should be a transcendant star, but he isn't. Individually, none of the Bears are without their flaws. And neither, despite its record, is this team.

Oh well. There's no use pining for something that isn't there, at least not yet. What the Bears are already is still awfully good. They'll need to be to stay undefeated tonight.

No. 5 Ohio State at Illinois, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN: First and foremost, NBA scouts should love this one. Why? Because they get a chance to measure Illinois sophomore forward Meyers Leonard -- a potential first-round pick whose stock should rise as the season continues -- mano a mano with surefire lottery pick Jared Sullinger. That matchup, pitting two of the Big Ten's three or four best big men, is the one to watch. It's a good one.

Where Illinois coach Bruce Weber may direct more of his concern is, well, everywhere else. The Illini have been a thoroughly mediocre offensive team for pretty much the entire season, thanks in large part to the fact that Leonard simply doesn't touch the ball enough. Instead, those touches and shots go most frequently to guard Brandon Paul, who is still taking the highest percentage of his team's possessions and shots despite his effective field goal percentage of 42.1 and his offensive rating of 91.7. Paul might be the only Illini player who can consistently get to the rim, but that apparent talent doesn't seem to be doing much good. Just as often, Paul decides to shoot a three, where has gone 21-of-74 (28.4 percent) on the season. Yikes.

Considering the presence of Leonard, and the fact that fellow backcourt mate D.J. Richardson actually is efficient (off. rating: 116.4; eFG%: 54.4), Paul's chuck-happy ways constitute a drastic misappropriation of resources. That, more than any other reason, is why the Illini have struggled thus far this season. They may be able to hold Ohio State's offense in relative check tonight. The Illini do defend, Leonard can (conceivably, anyway) present some resistance to Sullinger and the benefit of an Orange Krush-led home atmosphere should be a huge leveling force.

But if Illinois takes the usual diet of bad shots and silly threes against this No. 1-ranked efficiency defense, which is holding opponents to (get this) .78 points per trip this season, they might not break 50 points. Whatever the final tally, it will be ugly.

Everywhere else: No. 13 Louisville will try to avoid a loss in a slightly tricky road game at Providence. ... No. 3 UNC will host Miami. ... No. 7 Michigan State gets Iowa in East Lansing, and if the Hawkeyes double down on their NYE win at Wisconsin, the world will officially cease to make sense. ... Georgia travels to No. 19 Florida. ... Florida State will attempt to halt its ugly recent slide at Virginia Tech. ... Vanderbilt looks to stay unbeaten in SEC play at South Carolina. ... and UNI goes to Omaha to face No. 21 Creighton in another huge MVC game with potential NCAA tourney bid implications.

Spoiler alert! The answer to that question is "we'll see."

Here's something a little more definitive, then: If Illinois doesn't turn its offense around by the time the Illini take the floor against Missouri tonight, they have very little chance of hanging with the Tigers. That's for sure.

Missouri is one of the best offensive teams in the country. Illinois is by no means one of the worst this season, but if you've only seen Bruce Weber's team in three of its past four games, you'd be easily convinced to the contrary.

To wit: On Dec. 7, the Illini hosted St. Bonaventure. They won 48-43. They scored .73 points per possession.

On Saturday, the Illini lost 64-48 to UNLV in Chicago. They scored .70 points per possession.

On Monday, the Illini hosted Cornell. They won 64-60. They scored 1.01 points per possession. Wait -- that's not all that bad! It's ... pretty average!

But as the inimitable Big Ten Geeks revealed in their analysis of Illinois' offense Tuesday, that points per possession average was boosted by a nice start and a late surge. In the 41 possessions that came between the first six and the final 17 (in which the Illini scored 1.67 and 1.65 ppp, respectively, Weber's team scored just .63 points on each trip down the floor. No wonder a seemingly overmatched Cornell team managed to hang around so long -- and at Assembly Hall, no less.

What gives? The Geeks point rightfully toward Illinois' bench as one of the culprits:

One glaringly obvious weakness over this rough patch has been the play of the Illinois bench. Against Cornell, seven bench members combined for the following statline: 41 minutes, 0 points, 0-10 FG, 7 rebounds, 2 turnovers, 5 fouls.

If one player put up those numbers, everyone would be asking why he’s even on the team. To be fair, this group includes five freshmen and two inexperienced sophomores, so it’s possible they are hitting the proverbial wall with the semester coming to an end. Regardless, Illinois absolutely must get something out of its bench going forward if it hopes to be a tournament team.

Of course, bench play doesn't explain the entire problem; there are some systemic issues at work here, too. The most obvious of these, when one ganders at Illinois' advanced efficiency profile (subscription required), is stylistic. The Illini might be shooting too many threes. Right now, the Illini are averaging 32.5 percent from beyond the arc. Their free throw rate (a ratio of free throws to field goal attempts) is 32.2 percent. The Illini aren't exactly chucking 3s; their ratio of 3-pointers to field goals is about 36 percent, which is above average but hardly crazy. But that lack of fouls is dragging this offense down, making it difficult to get easy points at the line when shots aren't falling. Far too frequently, especially in the past two weeks, those shots simply aren't going down.

If Weber could fix his team overnight, he'd probably ask them to play through forward Meyers Leonard far more often. Leonard has been fantastic this season, scoring efficiently in the low block and rebounding on both ends of the floor. He almost certainly needs more touches. (Guard Brandon Paul, he of the 93.4 offensive rating and the team-high 26.4 percent usage rate, should probably defer a little more often.) But if Leonard sees double-teams, and he does, the Illini still have to knock down open shots. If they don't, it won't matter how much they try to play through their talented sophomore big man. The offense will still struggle.

Which is why tonight's game with Missouri should be fascinating. The Illini haven't had much time to identify these woes, let alone address them. Keeping pace with the Tigers will be a daunting task. But keep an eye out. The offensive improvement Illinois so desperately requires doesn't need to happen tonight. But if Illinois wants to turn a solid start into a worthy Big Ten finish, major repairs are required.

Hopefully, you ignored college football. Hopefully, you procrastinated putting up your Christmas decorations. Hopefully, after Kentucky's thrilling win over North Carolina this afternoon, you stayed plopped in that couch groove, remote in one hand and snacks in the other, ready to flip from one hoops affair to the next.

Why? Because UK-UNC was merely this Saturday's opening salvo. Sure, it was the best and most important and most entertaining and most talented and most insert-your-adjective-of-choice-here game of the day. But it wasn't the only one. Let's run through the rest of this afternoon's action -- beginning with Xavier's remarkable comeback win over Purdue. (Tu!)

No. 11 Xavier 66, Purdue 63: Technically, a brief glance at the Game Flow illustration in the link to the left tells the story here. The Purdue lead was 20-6 after 10 minutes. It was 33-22 after 20 minutes. It was -- get this -- 55-36 after 30 minutes. Then, in the final 10 minutes, and especially the final five, Xavier staged a marvelous comeback, ending the game on a 30-8 run and holding on in the end to get the most unlikely of wins.

You can look at the box score and know this, and therefore know the story of the game. But believe me when I say this is one you had to see to believe. In particular, you needed to see X guard Tu Holloway, whose late-game transformations -- Holloway goes from inefficient to "oh my God, did you just see that?!?" -- are one of the strangest and most compelling performance storylines in college basketball this season. It pains me to say this, but in his past two games, Tu Holloway became college basketball's Tim Tebow. (I know, I know. I couldn't resist.)

As in Xavier's victory at Vanderbilt on Monday, Holloway was pedestrian to downright bad for much of Saturday afternoon. Before the final five minutes, he was borderline invisible, when he wasn't committing one of his six turnovers, that is. And then, just as it did Monday night in Nashville, something clicked. After the five-minute mark, Holloway went 3-of-4 and scored 13 of his 21 total points, including the three consecutive dagger 3s he stuck in the closing moments when his team needed them most. He won the game with his shooting and finished it off with his free throws.

It's strange, this lightbulb that seems to click only in the closing moments. But whatever it is that goes off in Holloway's head when the game is on the line in the closing moments, Xavier fans will take it. Thanks in large part to Holloway's late-game heroics, the Musketeers end this week with two crucial nonconference wins over two power-six teams, one of which came on the road.

There's a ton of season left, but would anyone want to draw the Muskies in an elimination game right now? For all its occasional struggles -- and by occasional, I mean "for the first 35 minutes of any given game" -- this Xavier team not only appears to be balanced and talented, but also appears to be as difficult an out as any team in the country. If you're up on the Musketeers, you better bury them deep. As long as Holloway's on the floor and the lead is mathematically in reach, you're never, ever safe.

As for Purdue, Matt Painter and Co. will certainly be unhappy to lose a game they controlled for so long in such heartbreaking fashion. And the sight of Robbie Hummel wincing at the end of the Boilermakers bench -- Hummel was crippled by apparently excruciating cramps for much of the afternoon -- was certainly an unwelcome one. But there are bright sides. For one, Hummel's injuries were merely cramps. (Seeing the Purdue senior, in the midst of a heartwarming comeback from two major ACL surgeries, hold his leg after contact is the quickest way this side of an Eli Roth movie to feel one's stomach turn in knots.)

More important, it should be noted that Purdue was the vastly superior team for much of the game. A loss is a loss, of course; no distinction will be made for its type during the résumé comparison season in early March. But the Boilers can take something from this game. They were the better team for its majority -- on the road, in a tough environment, against an experienced and talented team, with its best player cramping late -- and at the end of the day, maybe that's what's worth remembering.

No. 16 Marquette 61, No. 7 Wisconsin 54: Make no mistake: Marquette is a good team. Arguably a very good one. Even without star Jimmy Butler, last season's do-everything scorer, rebounder, glue guy and teammate extraordinaire, the Golden Eagles are still very good.

Even so, this is a borderline shocking result. Why? Because Wisconsin doesn't lose at home, like, ever. Before Saturday, in 11 seasons under Bo Ryan, UW was 156-11 at the Kohl Center. The Badgers were working on a 23-game home winning streak against all opponents; the last time they lost a nonconference home game was Dec. 23, 2008. So for the Golden Eagles to come in and get a win in this underrated in-state hoops rivalry -- well, yeah, that's a shocker, no matter how good this Marquette team is.

Of course, the Badgers gave Marquette the opportunity almost from the starting tip. Wisconsin posted an uncharacteristically awful shooting performance Saturday afternoon, particularly in the first half, when the Badgers scored just 22 points and found themselves in a 10-point hole at halftime. Things improved slightly in the second, but UW still finished 16-of-50 from the field and 5-of-19 from 3. For a team averaging 44 percent from 3 and 50 percent from 2 this season -- a team that relies on slowly working the ball in pursuit of a high-percentage final shot -- that simply won't get it done.

Wisconsin's slow pace -- its greatest advantage at times -- also makes it very difficult for the Badgers to mount a comeback. They tried, and cut the lead to within striking distance late in the second half even despite a tough charging call on point guard Jordan Taylor that cost the Badgers a three-point play and sent Taylor to the bench with his fourth foul. But Marquette was just as good down the stretch. Guard Darius Johnson-Odom didn't have a hugely efficient night (17 points on 15 shots), but anytime he can get his 18-foot step-back jumper off, it becomes an unstoppable offensive weapon. Meanwhile, Marquette is getting good contributions from sophomore Vander Blue and freshman guard Todd Mayo (younger brother of O.J.).

Wisconsin may have shot itself in the foot in this one -- not unlike Tuesday's close call at North Carolina -- but Marquette deserves the credit. The Golden Eagles took advantage early, made enough plays to finish the game and in the process notched one of the biggest wins of Buzz Williams' ever-promising tenure at the program. Impressive stuff.

Illinois 82, No. 18 Gonzaga 75: Maybe Gonzaga beats Illinois on a neutral court. But maybe not.

That's the feeling one got while watching this game, in which Illinois -- a young team but one with talent, which is something yours truly has been saying all season -- never looked overmatched or overwhelmed against a ranked Bulldogs team with designs on a deep tournament run. A little like UK-UNC, this win didn't feel like the benefit of home-court advantage as some deciding factor. Illinois can play with people. Now we know.

Of special note? Illinois forward Meyers Leonard. The sophomore missed much of the first half thanks to foul trouble, but he returned in the second with a determined style of play. The end result: 21 points and 6 rebounds on 9-for-11 shooting from the field. Those are impressive tallies any way you slice them, but considering Leonard posted those numbers while matched up with Gonzaga center Robert Sacre, they're doubly so. Throw in the balanced performances from starters D.J. Richardson (19 points), Brandon Paul (13 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds) and Sam Maniscalco (10 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds) and, well, don't look now, but this Illinois team might well be better than last season's disappointing senior-led squad. It certainly looked the part Saturday.

No. 17 Pittsburgh 61, Tennessee 56: In Maui, the Tennessee Volunteers proved themselves to be a flawed but hard-nosed and pesky bunch, one that would refuse to roll over for their apparently more talented opponents. That quality was on full display against Pitt, which led UT by eight with 1:46 to go. That's when the Vols began fouling, and after an elbow cost guard Ashton Gibbs a technical foul -- and gave Tennessee the customary shots and possession -- the Panthers missed the front end of two one-and-ones and watched as Trae Golden's 3 cut the lead to 58-56 with 11 seconds remaining.

It wasn't pretty, but the Panthers pulled this one out after forcing a jump ball on Tennessee's key possession late. They'll be thankful for that when seeding time comes around this spring. But let it be known: Tennessee was supposed to be rebuilding. That may be true. But don't tell the Volunteers. Because they aren't yielding anything in the meantime.

Other noteworthy results from the afternoon: The jury is still out on Iowa State; the Cyclones don't have any truly bad losses (at Drake is forgivable, and so is a home loss to UNI), but after Saturday's 75-65 loss at Michigan, Fred Hoiberg's rebuilt team hasn't made us sit up and take notice either. ... Ryan Boatright's home debut after a six-game NCAA rules suspension went swimmingly: The freshman guard scored 23 points and led his team to a game-opening 14-2 run in what was arguably a struggling UConn team's most impressive performance of the year, a 75-62 victory over Arkansas. ... Usually, UCLA-Texas is a marquee game. Not this season. The Bruins are now 2-5 after today's home loss to the Longhorns, which was briefly interrupted by a power surge that caused the lights to dim in the aging Los Angeles Sports Arena, UCLA's temporary home. One imagines Ben Howland would have preferred the lights stay off. ... BYU played at the home of the Utah Jazz (hey, there's nothing going on there) and dusted off Oregon with a 13-0 run in the second half of its impressive 79-65 win. Noah Hartsock led the way with 23 points and 12 boards for the Cougars. In other news, the Horizon League began conference play -- yes, conference play -- on Saturday, with the two biggest results a 77-71 overtime win by Valpo at Butler and Cleveland State's 66-61 win at preseason Horizon favorite Detroit. We know to never count out Butler (or Detroit if Eli Holman ever returns), but it's becoming apparent that the Crusaders and Vikings are the teams to beat in the Horizon.

Illinois began last season with high expectations, a national ranking, and a 10-1 start that seemed to signal that it might have been its year in the Big 10. Things didn't work out that way, as the Illini played unevenly in conference games and endured frustrations with senior Demetri McCamey along with the eventual departure of McDonald's All-American Jereme Richmond.

This preseason, the team is trying to wash away what happened last season and starting off by openly discussing what happened. Center Meyers Leonard, coming off his freshman season and a summer spent with the USA Under-19 team in Latvia, even pointed the finger at himself, according to ESPN Chicago.

Leonard's first season didn't go as he hoped on the court, and he admitted he often allowed his anger to boil over.

"I got frustrated last year some with myself, some with the coaches," Leonard said on Tuesday. "I would talk back. I was pretty immature to be honest."

From Gatehouse News Service:

"It trickles down a lot," junior guard D.J. Richardson said Tuesday. "It messes up the team. We had problems last year. We were still able to win games. We were inconsistent.

"You couldn't really sense it until you go back and look at it at the end of the season. We were trying to win games. At the end of the season, that’s when you noticed how many problems you really had."

Consider those comments good news for Illinois coach Bruce Weber since the first step to correcting a problem is recognizing there was one in the first place and not shying away from it.

Illinois has plenty of talent returning in Leonard, Richardson and guard Brandon Paul. The 7-foot Leonard compiled a 63 percent shooting percentage in nine games in Latvia and was under the watchful eye of Weber during the team's training camp in Colorado Springs as the coach was on the USA selection committee.

Now it'll be up to Weber to rebuild a team with more of a winning attitude. He'll get a head start on it as the Illini head to Italy in August for a preseason tour and some much-needed bonding time.

Thus far, the signs have been positive.

"I think this whole group is coachable," Weber told ESPN Chicago. "I think the other guys ... it was misconstrued they weren't coachable. I think they had limitations. They could only do so much with strength and physicality.

"I think maybe that extra discipline, that extra toughness, that extra work ethic, maybe they learn from the others. I tell them all the time to learn from past experiences, from others' experiences, their failures, so you can have success."

Remember when Bruce Weber couldn't recruit?

For a while there, that implication -- whether true or false -- hung like a weight around Weber's neck. Illinois fans saw their guy could coach, but Weber's best seasons (including the brilliant two-loss run to the national title game in 2005) came with the benefit of predecessor Bill Self's players. Once those players left the program and the talent (and wins) seemed to dwindle, Weber was stuck answering the age-old succession question: Yeah, but can he recruit? More specifically, can he recruit in Chicago?

The first question has been settled by the past two signing days; Weber's 2009 and 2010 classes were both among the 15 or 20 best in the country. And if there was any remaining doubt about the second question, Weber's 2011 class has made it officially moot.

That's because the 2011 class, which Weber officially inked yesterday, features four players ranked among the top 20 at their positions and three in the ESPNU 100 and -- get this -- all of them hail from Chicago. Forward Mike Shaw, small forward Mychael Henry, point guard Tracy Abrams and Nnanna Egwu all played their high school hoops in and around the Chicago area at schools like St. Ignatius, De La Salle Prep, Orr Academy and Mt. Carmel high school. There are other good Chicago-area players heading to other schools in the class -- Kentucky commitment Anthony Davis, the No. 2 player in the class, for one -- but the depth and breadth of Weber's domination in the area is impressive all the same.

This isn't the first time Weber's done well in Chicago, of course. Top 2010 recruit Jereme Richmond hails from Waukegan, Ill. His classmate, Crandall Head, is from the city proper. In 2009, Illinois Mr. Basketball Brandon Paul, a Gurnee, Ill., native -- brought his talents to Champaign, Ill., too. Weber had made serious strides in the city before 2011. But altogether, with the 2011 class in the fold, six of Weber's past 11 recruits come from the Chicago area. Only D.J. Richardson, a Peoria, Ill. native, can be counted as top Weber recruit who isn't from the Second City.

In other words, the question is answered. Yes, Bruce Weber can recruit. Yes, he can recruit -- maybe even own -- Chicago. And yes, after once feeling the pangs of uncertainty about their new coach, Illinois fans can rest easy. The Illini are going to be good for a while.

You can forgive Illinois fans if they spend the early part of the new season tweaking out about defense. After all, defense is Bruce Weber's calling card, the one consistent thing he's been able to instill in every team, good or bad, since he took over at Illinois. Ball pressure to 30 feet, stifling man-to-man rotation, comprehensive interior help -- to win under Weber, this is what the Illini have to do. Usually, it is what they do.

That wasn't the case in 2009-10. For a variety of reasons, Illinois' defense was merely mediocre in last season's campaign. Weber's team allowed .927 adjusted points per possession, which ranked No. 49 in the country. It's a decent mark, but not an impressive one, especially considering the drop-off it represented from the previous season, when the Illini were the fourth-most efficient defense in the country. Even in 2007-08, when Illinois finished 16-19 -- the worst record of Weber's career -- Illinois was a much better defensive team (.899 adjusted points per possession, ranked No. 21) than in 2009-10. Last winter, had Illinois played defense even as well the worst team in Weber's tenure, the Illini probably wouldn't have ended up in the NIT. True story.

All of which is a long preamble to the current question: How does this year's Illinois defense look?

One game is not exactly a fair sample size (especially when that game is a season-opener against the UC-Irvine Anteaters), but even if it was, the jury would still be out. From the Big Ten Geeks:

Bruce Weber must have been pleased with his team's first half against UC-Irvine, in which the Illini allowed just 0.49 points per possession. The Anteaters shot just 23 percent from the field and turned it over on nearly a third of their possessions. [...] After intermission, however, it was a completely different story. Suddenly UC-Irvine was scoring in bunches, using dribble penetration to give the Illini fits. After scoring just 18 points in the first 20 minutes, the Anteaters reeled off 25 points in 10 minutes. Clearly, allowing a Big West team to score at a 100-point pace for an extended period is not something to be proud of, no matter how stifling the first half defense was.

Illinois got things under control after that stretch, and eventually ran away with a win that wasn't even as close as the final score, 79-65, would indicate. And, again, it's just the season opener; Illinois will have plenty of time to work out the kinks. But it is something worth watching. Unless Brandon Paul continues to shoot like he did last night (6-for-8 from beyond the arc, 18 points), and Jereme Richmond is even better than everyone thinks, this Illinois team probably isn't destined for a brilliant offensive season. To compete for the Big Ten title, it will, as always, have to play stifling defense.

The drill, you know it. Here are five things I can't wait to see in the Big Ten this season:

1. How -- and whether -- Purdue recovers

At the risk of overplaying the Robbie Hummel story (he was, after all, the story of Big Ten media day, too), I'm going with this at No. 1. To me, there is no greater intrigue in the league this season than in finding out just what effect Hummel's ACL tear will have on his team in 2010-11. We know from last year's injury that the forward added far more to Purdue's offense than to its defense. Purdue's offensive efficiency drastically declined after Hummel's first ACL tear last February (thanks in large part to a couple of 40-point stinkers in games against Michigan State and Minnesota, the latter of which saw the Boilermakers score 11 points in the first half), but there was some sign Purdue had righted the points-per-possession ship during their run to the Sweet 16. Defensively, the Boilers were not only fine, they were better with Hummel out; coach Matt Painter changed his team's style, focusing less on offensive rebounds demanding his team get behind the ball with all five players. With Chris Kramer still patrolling the perimeter, and a much more careful Boilermakers team on the floor, Purdue ended the season with the third-most efficient defense in the country.

The problem is that not all of Hummel's contributions, even on the offensive end, are quantifiable. Hummel's versatility as a point forward with 3-point range opened the lane for JaJuan Johnson and made it difficult to impossible to double the big man on the elbow and short post. Hummel drew a high number of fouls, distributed the ball well without turning it over, and was in many ways a glue guy who played with the efficiency of a star. Kramer's defense (and sneaky good, fourth-option-type offense) is also a major loss. Painter is a more than capable coach with more time than last year to figure out how to replace Hummel (and now Kramer), and he has a large amount of depth to utilize in that process. But it's hard to imagine these Boilermakers being as good as last year's pre-ACL version.

2. A healthy Kalin Lucas

It's no wonder Michigan State is ranked just behind Duke in just about everyone's preseason top 25. The Spartans went to their second-straight Final Four in 2009-10 without the help of their best player, guard Kalin Lucas, who was a contender for Big Ten Player of the Year until an Achilles tear forced him to the sidelines for the remainder of the season. The 2010-11 version gets Lucas -- and everyone not named Raymar Morgan and Chris Allen -- back. Toss in a talented recruiting class with at least one likely contributor (freshman Keith Appling) already in the mix, and you get a loaded, experienced team as talented as any in the country. The real draw, though, is Lucas -- how he recovers, how he leads, and how he closes his Michigan State career after being forced to watch from the sidelines during last year's triumphant and unexpected finish.

3. Bruce Weber's best team in years

Even in down years, Bruce Weber's teams did one thing. They defended. Weber is a defensive coach, and his ability to get his players to play stifling man-to-man defense out to 30 feet has been one reason why a lack of talent in the post-Deron Williams era hasn't gotten him in more trouble with his fan base. But no such problem exists this season: Illinois returns all five starters from last year's team. Three seniors, including All-Big Ten preseason pick Demetri McCamey, are back. Last year's two highly touted freshman -- Brandon Paul and Big Ten freshman of the year D.J. Richardson -- will look to make the freshman-to-sophomore leap. And another big-time recruiting class, including forward Jereme Richmond, the No. 23-ranked player in the class of 2010, shouldn't need much time to make an impact. There is no small amount of expectation surrounding this team: The Big Ten's media picked Illinois to finish fourth behind Michigan State, Ohio State and Purdue, and the Illini are ranked No. 13 in the AP preseason poll. That's a big jump in expectations for a defensively mediocre team that limped to an NIT finish last season, but it's a warranted one. Now Weber just has to remember how to get his guys to play defense. With all that talent, the offensive end -- and an NCAA tournament bid -- should take care of itself.

4. Ohio State freshman Jared Sullinger

Losing a high-usage player of the year like Evan Turner isn't the sort of thing your program is supposed to immediately overcome. But Sullinger, the No. 2-ranked player in the class of 2010, could push the 2010-11 version of the Buckeyes to be even better than last year's team. The four non-Turner starters -- versatile guards William Buford and David Lighty, sharpshooter Jon Diebler, and bruising center Dallas Lauderdale -- return. By plugging Sullinger (not to mention top small forward prospect DeShaun Thomas) in, Ohio State won't have to play four guards this season. They won't lack frontcourt depth when Lauderdale gets in foul trouble. They won't have to play their starters an insane number of minutes. And, if Sullinger plays to expectations, they'll have as effective a low-block scorer as any team in the country. It's hard to pick Ohio State over Michigan State to start the season, but by the end of it, Ohio State could very well deserve that distinction. They might just be the second-best team in the country.

5. Another ho-hum Wisconsin season

And rest assured, denizens of Madison: I mean "ho-hum" in the most complimentary way possible. This is a stat I've written before, but one that bears repeating: In Bo Ryan's tenure, the Badgers have failed to finish worse than fourth in the Big Ten exactly zero times. In nine seasons, the Badgers have failed to win 20 games only twice, and failed to win more than 24 games three times. The man and his program are models of consistency. That consistency hasn't exactly translated into tournament success; Ryan's teams have been past the second round of the NCAA tournament only three times in his tenure, and they've gotten past the Sweet 16 just once. But, still, how good must it feel to be a Wisconsin fan? To know, before the season even starts, that your team is going to be in the Big Ten mix?

That feeling shouldn't change this season. Wisconsin lost guards Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon, but it returned Jordan Taylor and potential Big Ten Player of the Year Jon Leuer, an efficient high-usage forward who rebounds on the defensive end and scores from everywhere on offense. He's perfect for Ryan's slow-swing system, and Ryan's system is perfect for the Big Ten. The Badgers will have to make sure last year's stellar turnover rate stays something near to stellar, and the loss of those experienced guards will be an early challenge, but would you wager, even in a very tough Big Ten, on a Bo Ryan team finishing outside the league's top four? There's no reason to start now.

For the next month or so, our friends at The Mag are previewing one high-profile school per day for their Summer Buzz series. For the sake of all that is synergistic, yours truly will be attempting the same, complementing each comprehensive Insider preview with some adjusted efficiency fun. Today's subject: Illinois. Up next? Purdue.

What happened to the Illinois defense?

For all the ups and downs of Bruce Weber's tenure at Illinois, there has always been one thing the Illini do well: defend. Weber's teams aren't hard to figure out, but they've always been consistent. They play tenacious man-to-man defense out to 30 feet. They lock down perimeter threats and hedge ball screens before rotating, recovering and forcing the offense to start all over again. They don't give you anything easy.

There's no junk involved, and very little zone. Weber's teams are defensively simple. They're also simply ruthless.

To wit, here are the defensive efficiency numbers of Weber's teams since his first season in Champaign (calculated as opposition's points per 100 possessions; tempo-free numbers courtesy of Ken Pomeroy):

• 2003-04: 92.1. Rank: 35. Record: 26-7.
• 2004-05: 87.4. Rank: 11. Record: 37-2.
• 2005-06: 90.5. Rank: 21. Record: 26-11.
• 2006-07: 84.7. Rank: 3. Record: 23-12.
• 2007-08: 89.9. Rank: 21. Record: 16-19.
• 2008-09: 86.5. Rank: 4. Record: 24-10.

Then, in 2009-10, something funky happened:

• 2009-10: 92.7. Rank: 49. Record: 21-15.

The Illini went from the fourth-ranked defense in 2008-09 to the 49th, in the process posting Weber's worst defensive coaching season in his seven-year Illinois career.

This can't be blamed on a dearth of talent. In the past, Weber's teams haven't needed talent to defend; those 16-19 Illini from 2007-08 may have been horrifically inept with the ball in their hands, not to mention one of the least athletic teams in the Big Ten, but they still held opponents to fewer points per possession than last year's squad.

"Demetri [McCamey] went to the Deron Williams Skills Academy and the LBJ Skills camp and he heard the same thing I told him all last season: you need to start guarding people," says Weber.

Illinois' perimeter defense was perhaps its weakest component last year -- the Illini didn't turn anyone over, and opposing teams scored 33.3 percent of their baskets against Illinois from beyond the arc. Some of that is surely McCamey's fault. As one of Illinois' veterans and a supposed team leader, McCamey had his fair share of disagreements with Weber throughout the season, and perhaps a lack of effort on the defensive end was one of the causes.

It also didn't help that Weber had to rely on two talented but inexperienced freshmen -- Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson -- at backcourt positions for much of last season. Both players can score, but neither was a particularly adept defender; if you looked for it, you could see that confused "But I was helping over here!" look on walks back to timeouts pretty much every game. A year later, both players should be much better.

There is more talent on the way, too. Weber has long been criticized by some Illinois fans as an X's and O's guy who can't recruit, one who could coach up a group of second-tier players but couldn't land the talented in-state recruits Illinois churns up each and every year. No more. Paul and Richardson were big first steps. The coup de grace comes in the form of Jereme Richmond, the No. 4 small forward in the class of 2010. Richmond is known as a polished scorer who needs to add strength, but his length and athleticism should make an immediate impact on the defensive side of the ball.

Same goes for Meyers Leonard, a 7-foot center ranked No. 4 at his position in 2010, whose name sounds like a big four accounting firm. (That's not just me, right?) Leonard will be the strongest player on his team, and his sheer size should help bolster Illinois' interior and defensive rebounding.

What it all adds up to is a talented, experienced Illinois team adding a potentially elite scorer and some much needed interior girth. So, yeah, Illinois should be better at putting points on the board in 2010-11. That's always a bonus.

But where the Illini's season will really be made -- or broken -- is whether they can correct last year's ugly team defense. That answer will come down to this: Were the 2009-10 Illini a statistical outlier? Or simply a group that isn't all that good at playing defense, no matter how good their coach might be at teaching it?

If it's the latter, Illinois will be pretty good, but that's it. If it's the former, then Michigan State and Purdue won't be the only legitimate contenders for the Big Ten title. We'll see.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Once again, Illinois is finding its groove at the Big Ten tournament and can cement itself in the NCAA tournament field with 20 more minutes of good basketball. Ohio State needs a sharper second half to remain alive for a No. 1 seed.

Quick thoughts at the halftime break, with Illinois leading, 37-31:

• Illinois did a great job of hanging tough despite Demetri McCamey's slow shooting start (0-for-5), and McCamey kept his head up, which hasn't always been the case this season. D.J. Richardson, Mike Davis and Brandon Paul sparked the Illini on a 14-0 run midway through the half that turned the game around. After getting picked by Evan Turner early in the half, McCamey returned the favor and scored his first points on a 3-point play. Illinois still likely needs more scoring from McCamey (three points, 1-for-6 shooting) to hold off Ohio State.
• Three Illinois freshmen -- Richardson, Paul and Tyler Griffey -- are all making nice contributions today. Richardson leads Illinois with 11 points, including three 3-pointers, and Griffey has seven points on 3 of 3 shooting after replacing Mike Tisdale, who fell into early foul trouble.
• Turner didn't have the greatest half with the ball i his hands (five turnovers), but backcourt mate William Buford picked up the slack with 11 points and five rebounds on 4 of 8 shooting. Buford will be Ohio State's top option in 2010-11 if he returns to school, and he certainly looks comfortable scoring the basketball today.
• Turner fell to the floor at the end of the half after coughing up the ball, and he seemed to be upset with an Illinois player as he walked off the floor. McCamey, who teamed with Turner in high school, might have said something to the star. It'll be interesting to see how Turner responds in the second half.

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. -- A solid first-half showing by Illinois at Mackey Arena has raised spirits in East Lansing and Columbus, Ohio.

The Illini hold a 35-32 lead over No. 4 Purdue after shooting 50 percent in the first half. They were 5-of-8 on three-pointers, including Brandon Paul's go-ahead bomb in the waning seconds before intermission.

Purdue, on the other hand, missed nine of its first 11 shots and finished the half at just 27.3 percent. The Boilermakers' normally solid ball movement has given way to too many one-on-one drives, which is why they have only four assists as a team, or seven less than Illini point guard Demetri McCamey has all by himself at this point.

Illinois is double-teaming JaJuan Johnson every time he gets the ball into the paint, and that's thrown Johnson off his game. The junior center -- who had 24 points in Champaign last month -- is 0-for-3 for from the field and has only a pair of free throws to his credit.

Purdue is really only in the game right now because of its 10 offensive rebounds. Leading scorer E'Twaun Moore picked up his second foul with 10 minutes left in the half and remained bolted to the bench until the break.

The outcome so far is similar to teams' first meeting, when Illinois went into the half up 32-28. Purdue surged back to win that game; will history repeat?