ESPN Men's Basketball

1. Ohio State and Marquette are in negotiations to play on a naval ship in Charleston, S.C., on or around Veteran’s Day, according to multiple sources familiar with their scheduling. The game would be organized by Morale Entertainment, the same group that set up the USS Carl Vinson game on 11-11-11 between North Carolina and Michigan State. Ohio State’s other marquee games are at Duke in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, while also hosting Kansas in a return game. Marquette is in the Maui Invitational with North Carolina, Texas, Butler, Illinois, Mississippi State, USC and host Chaminade. The Golden Eagles are waiting to see who they will play in the SEC-Big East Challenge. But they have games against LSU in a return situation, host rival Wisconsin, and are at Green Bay in what overall should be the toughest nonconference slate under Buzz Williams.

2. Kansas had struggled to find a quality home game, so the Jayhawks went to an old friend, former player and league rival. Colorado and Tad Boyle, who played at Kansas and coaches Colorado, are finalizing a deal with the Jayhawks to do a two-year home-and-home series, starting in Lawrence. The Buffaloes reached the NCAA tournament third round last season, losing to Baylor in Albuquerque. Kansas had no ill will toward the Buffaloes when they left the Big 12 for the Pac-12, unlike rival Missouri. Re-starting this series is good for both leagues and programs.

3. The A-10 followed the Big East’s lead by declaring during its meetings Thursday that any school that is ineligible for the NCAA postseason cannot participate in its championships. The A-10 doesn’t have any school facing a penalty, but wanted to do this just in case it occurs. The Big East had to make this rule after UConn was banned from the 2013 postseason due to poor APR scores. The same thing is happening in the CAA with Towson and UNCW. The Big East changed its bylaws, preventing a school that is not allowed to go to the postseason to play in its championships. The CAA has the same rule. That means UConn, Towson and UNCW cannot play in the 2013 Big East or CAA, tournaments, respectively.

The Afternoon Links are back, and they are exactly what they say they are. Some days will bring more links than others. This is the offseason, after all. If you have a link you'd like included, your best bet is to hit me on Twitter. You can also e-mail your link to collegebasketballnation at gmail.com, or use the submission form here.

• James Johnson's first item of business was winning the news conference, and that seemed to go pretty well, at least according to Hampton Roads Daily Press' David Teel: "James Johnson didn't act like the ACC's youngest, least-experienced and probably lowest-paid head basketball coach Tuesday. Conversely, Virginia Tech's new boss appeared comfortable during his introductory news conference. Comfortable in the spotlight, confident in himself. Don't misunderstand. There wasn't a whisper of brashness. He wasn't glib, emotional or long-winded. Some may interpret that as anxiety. But I saw comfort mixed with humility." Even better? As planned, Johnson's hiring prompted recruit Marshall Wood, who had asked for his release after former coach Seth Greenberg's departure, to remain in the fold.
• Western Kentucky freshman Derrick Gordon announced his transfer to UMass, where he will sit out a year before becoming eligible in 2013-14, via Twitter. Judging by the COPIOUS USE OF CAPS LOCK, Gordon is excited about the news.
• Over the weekend, Team USA added Oklahoma City's James Harden and (more relevant to our interests) likely No. 1 overall pick Anthony Davis to the pool of players eligible for selection to this summer's Olympic team. Davis would still have to make a final cut, but given the dearth of true big men available to Mike Krzyzewski this summer -- Dwight Howard is out, and without him the only true center in the player pool is NBA defensive player of the year Tyson Chandler -- Davis might have an outside shot at making the squad. I'll be honest: I would love to see Davis play in the international system. (And also: I can not wait until the 2012 Summer Olympics. You're going down, Spain! Who's with me?)
• We missed this late last week, but Connecticut got a commitment from Phil Nolan, a 6-foot-10 forward ranked No. 23 at his position in the class of 2012. Nolan might not make an immediate impact, but in the wake of Andre Drummond's draft departure, Alex Oriakhi's transfer to Missouri, and Roscoe Smith's defection, Nolan's sheer size makes him an important get.
• The Washington Post recognized the 10th anniversary of Maryland's 2002 national championship with a photo slideshow. When done poorly, photo slideshows are one of the worst things about the Internet. When done well, they're totally awesome. This is an example of the latter, complete with "Where are they now?" updates on each of the beloved title-winning Terrapins. For example: Did you know Juan Dixon is in Turkey? True! And that Steve Blake plays for the ... ha, just kidding.
• Obligatory in-house links: Today, Myron Medcalf breaks down how Kentucky's 2012 freshmen raised the expectations bar forever. In case you missed it, be sure to see Myron's story on Trent Lockett, who transferred from Arizona State to Marquette be closer to his mother, who is fighting her second diagnosis of a "crazy" and "rare" brand of lymphoma cancer. And don't miss last week's feature on a renewed Bruce Weber, who looked refreshed and ready for a new challenge at Kansas State when he spoke with our Jason King.
• Daily basketball break: "Any faceted solid, he showed, no matter how complex or irregular, could be folded from a single uncut sheet of paper. Start with a piece of paper big enough, and you could model Notre Dame down to the last gargoyle." You may want to read this story.

Yes, that’s right: After Wednesday’s signing day madness -- Nerlens Noel to Kentucky, Shabazz Muhammad to UCLA, extra extra, read all about it -- we’ve gone and built another extremely early top 25. I know, I know. You’re excited.

The whole “too early” thing isn’t just shtick; it really is way too early to be thinking about next season’s top 25 (as if preseason rankings matter in the first place). This is all just guesswork. Fun, mostly pointless guesswork. But it’s the offseason! What else are we supposed to do?

In any case, you can check out the top 25 here. Not everyone could make the cut, which is where the rest of this post comes in. Here’s a look at some of the best teams that didn’t land in today’s top 25 -- and what they’ll bring to the floor in 2012-13:

VCU: It’s clear the Rams weren’t a one-show pony in 2011; in fact, as coach Shaka Smart is proving, this is a program with staying power. Indeed, with the exception of NCAA tournament play, Smart’s 2011-12 team was considerably better than the one that made 2011’s unlikely run, and that looks likely to be the case again in 2012-13. With star guard Darius Theus alongside returners Briante Weber, Troy Daniels, Rob Brandenberg and Treveon Graham -- and with Bradford Burgess’s little brother Jordan arriving as a freshman in the fall -- this may be the best HAVOC-style defensive team of Smart’s tenure.

Kansas State: The 2012-13 Kansas State Wildcats won’t make any aesthetically inclined fan’s list of must-see teams. With just one player signed for the class of 2012 -- three-star center Laimonas Chatkevicius -- recruiting isn’t going to get anyone all hot and bothered, either. But boring as the Wildcats may seem, their returning solidity will give them a chance to be effective. Those returners include 7-foot forward Jordan Henriquez and veteran backcourt members Will Spradling, Rodney McGruder and Angel Rodriguez, who was inconsistent but promising as a freshman last season. This group wasn’t all that much to look at in 2012, either, but under former coach Frank Martin, it thrived on rebounding, defense and toughness. Newly hired coach Bruce Weber will love to work with this team.

Tennessee: The 2011-12 Tennessee Volunteers were a rebuilding team -- a post-Bruce Pearl mess, which is what they were supposed to be -- until Jan. 21, and no further. That’s when Tennessee took down Connecticut at home and went on to win 10 of its last 13 games and land the No. 2 seed in the SEC tournament, just behind the Kentucky Wildcats. Tennessee’s early season woes prevented the Vols from making the NCAA tournament, but Cuonzo Martin set a clear tone for his new program, one that should carry over -- with a little help from sophomore Jarnell Stokes, whose midseason freshman arrival synced up with the Volunteers’ run -- into his second year in Knoxville.

Saint Louis: Make no mistake: The Billikens will miss Brian Conklin, a 6-foot-6 forward who played more like he was 6-10, with the interior scoring numbers to match. Otherwise, Rick Majerus’ team -- which gave Michigan State a go in the NCAA tournament’s third round -- is back. Kwamain Mitchell, Dwayne Evans, Cody Ellis, Mike McCall and Jordair Jett; these are the players who brought Majerus and SLU back to some measure of national prominence in 2011-12. There’s no reason to expect anything less in the season to come.

Cincinnati: When Yancy Gates faded Xavier center Kenny Frease on Dec. 10, we didn’t know how Cincy’s season would end up. But few would have expected the Bearcats in general -- and Gates specifically -- to so fully turn their fortunes around. Now, Mick Cronin must move on without his powerful senior center. If Cincy lands center Christopher Obekpa, the No. 77 recruit in the ESPNU 100, all the better. (For what it’s worth, many scouts think Obekpa is heading to Providence.) But if not, Cronin can lean on the accomplished veteran backcourt of Sean Kilpatrick, Cashmere Wright and Jaquon Parker.

Five more to watch:

Ohio: The Bobcats lost coach John Groce to Illinois ... and that’s pretty much it. As returning lineups go, you can’t do much better than this. All 10 of Ohio’s rotation players from last season -- which ended in a Sweet 16 finish, lest we forget -- are back in 2012-13, including star guard D.J. Cooper.

Marquette: The Golden Eagles lost their two best players, seniors Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder, to the inescapable maw of time. But every main contributor around that star duo will be back, including Vander Blue, Davante Gardner, Chris Otule (coming off a December ACL injury), Todd Mayo and Junior Cadougan. This will remain a talented up-tempo team led by one of the nation’s most tireless coaches in Buzz Williams.

Butler: Will the Bulldogs return to prominence in 2012-13? It certainly looks that way. Brad Stevens’ young team will be without senior guard Ronald Nored, but otherwise will be a year older and wiser next season, while its chief deficiency -- shooting, scoring, offense in general -- should be alleviated by the arrival of sharpshooting Arkansas transfer Rotnei Clarke. Butler may not get back to the Final Four, but a return to the top of the Horizon League looks likely.

Miami: The Hurricanes were one of a handful of bubble teams left behind on Selection Sunday; in the end, a win at Duke in ACC play wasn’t enough to make up for an otherwise mediocre résumé. But 2012-13 holds some measure of promise. Star guard Durand Scott returns, as do forwards Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji. If the Hurricanes continue to improve under Jim Larranaga, they should be dancing in no time.

Maryland: The Terrapins struggled during the program's first post-Gary Williams season, but the pieces are in place for a step forward in Year 2. Star guard Terrell Stoglin -- one of the ACC's best perimeter scorers -- is back, as is center Alex Len. Meanwhile, coach Mark Turgeon is already reaping the rewards of a renewed focus on elite-level recruiting: ESPNU top 100 players Shaquille Cleare and Jake Layman highlight a solid incoming class that should contribute right away.

Honorable mentions: Alabama, Florida State, Pitt, Murray State, Stanford, Saint Mary’s, Iowa State, Xavier, Nevada.

1. SMU is joining the Big East in 2013 and wants to make a slash in replacing Matt Doherty. The Mustangs, according to sources, have Marquette’s Buzz Williams in their sights. But those close to him would be stunned if he were to leave Marquette, now a top Big East program, for a school that will enter the league at the bottom. The money can’t be more than comparable to what he makes now, and proximity to his hometown can’t be that big a deal, right? Unless something happens to prove otherwise, chalk this one up to wishful thinking.

2. Illinois has now been spurned by VCU’s Shaka Smart and Butler’s Brad Stevens. This should be yet another sign how well schools pay at some spots outside the power six. And it speaks volumes about being happy with your situation, school, boss and city for a coach’s family. Now that Illinois has struck out with Smart and Stevens, it should focus on Ohio’s John Groce. Groce has done wonders with the Bobcats and has strong Big Ten ties. I’d be surprised if Groce were to turn this gig down if offered. He’s hot now and, while he could win the MAC next year, it’s still likely a one-bid league and winning the conference tournament is a tenuous proposition.

3. South Carolina would like Kansas State’s Frank Martin. But if Martin is seriously interested in leaving Kansas State (he has publicly said he hasn’t talked to anyone), he should look at Mississippi State, which is a better basketball job than South Carolina. There is plenty of talent in the state, more recent success in the sport, and a more passionate fan base for hoops.

PHOENIX -- The No. 7 seeds in the 2012 NCAA tournament were as follows:

Notre Dame. Saint Mary's. Gonzaga. Florida.

Sing it with me now: One of these things is not like the others.

For starters, Florida was the only No. 7 seed to survive the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, and the only one -- after Thursday's 68-58 victory over Marquette -- to reach the Elite Eight and the one-game-from-the-Final-Four precipice it so intensely entails.

But even before the first weekend played out as it did, the Gators stood apart. Their No. 7 seed felt low -- but not because of the RPI or résumé. That part made sense. Rather, this vague feeling was about talent. It was about whether this team could come together at the right time, could flip the proverbial switch, could play up to the tantalizing possibilities presented by so much offensive firepower and future NBA potential.

Two weeks later, Billy Donovan's team has provided the answer.

Thanks to a defense that has suddenly morphed into a shutdown force -- and the continued emergence of talented freshman guard Bradley Beal -- Florida is back in the Elite Eight for the second consecutive season. If the Gators find a way to break down Louisville's vaunted defense Saturday, they'll be back in the Final Four for the first time since Donovan's back-to-back national titles in 2006-07 -- and would become the first No. 7 seed to make it to the tournament's biggest stage since the 1984 Virginia Cavaliers.

"We're starting to peak right now," Florida forward Patric Young said. "It's the greatest time to play your best basketball."

That did not appear to be the case in February, when Florida was drubbed at Kentucky, lost at home to Tennessee and finished SEC regular-season play with three consecutive losses, including a 76-62 defeat at Georgia on Feb. 25.

At that point, it was easy to have the Gators pegged: This was a good, sometimes great, offensive team reliant on 3-point shots and guard play, but one that didn't defend well enough to hold opponents back when that steady stream of outside shots failed to fall.

That once-shaky defense has experienced a sea change in the first three rounds of the NCAA tournament. Last weekend, the Gators held Virginia and Norfolk State to an incredibly low .74 points per trip -- combined. (They won both games by a total margin of 60 points.) On Thursday night, against a much better opponent in Marquette -- and one that boasted not one but two potent All-Big East players in Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder -- the Gators held that duo to 10-of-30 from the field and, in the process, allowed the Golden Eagles just .86 points per trip.

According to ESPN Stats & Info, the 153 points allowed by UF is the third-lowest total in a team’s first three tournament wins during the shot-clock era.

When your offense is one of the nation's five most efficient for an entire season (it is currently No. 3 in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency rankings) your defense doesn't have to be this good. When it is? Well, look out.

"When you don't make shots, the easiest thing to say is, well, we just missed shots that we typically make," Marquette coach Buzz Williams said. "That wasn't what happened. They were really good. They were outstanding."

And the Gators needed to be. Marquette is itself an awfully good defensive team, and one particularly inclined -- thanks to its coterie of guards and athletic bigs and focus on tight perimeter defense -- to take Florida out of its bombs-away 3-point shooting game. To some extent, that's what happened. The Gators struggled from the field, and especially from beyond the arc; they went 4-of-14 in the first half and just 3-of-13 in the second. In all, Marquette held UF to a mere 1.01 points per possession, an unusually low number for one of the nation's best offenses.

The difference, by the end, was Beal. The Gators not named Beal shot 16-of-49 from the field and 4-of-22 from 3. Meanwhile, the UF freshman played one of the most efficient individual games of the NCAA tournament to date, dropping 21 points on 8-of-10 shooting (and 3-of-5 from 3).

Fittingly, it was Beal's final basket, a soaring open-floor dunk, that truly signaled the end of Marquette's comeback bid, in which it cut a 14-point second-half lead to six with just 3:18 left to play. Donovan warned his players the Golden Eagles would "keep coming," and keep coming had finally, in the final minute, gone away. For all of Marquette's fight, for all its guile, and for all the ideal matchups it could field against Florida's guard-heavy lineup, Williams' team had no match for Donovan's surefire future lottery pick.

Williams put it in political terms:

"I think Bradley Beal is their swing vote," he said, "because he's so multi-versatile and talented."

Indeed, Beal's stature as one of the nation's top recruits -- he was the fifth-rated player in the class of 2011 -- was one of the main reasons Florida began the season so highly regarded despite losing forward Chandler Parsons from last season's Elite Eight team. With Beal joining Young and Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker and Rutgers transfer Mike Rosario, the promise of this team was limitless.

But Beal, like so many freshmen, took time to adjust to the college game -- to figure out how it feels when, all of a sudden, the game doesn't quite come so easily.

"At times he could get a little moody and get a little pouty and just didn't know how to handle it," Donovan said. "I had a hard time with him early in the year. ... I asked [Brad] one time, 'What's the most difficult part for you playing in college?' He said, 'Dealing with adversity and dealing with bad games -- because I didn't have a lot of those in high school.'

"He was always the best player on the floor."

Even with two of the nation's most talented teams on the court -- even with two Big East first-teamers on the squad opposite him -- there was no mistaking the best player on the court Thursday night.

His continued emergence, alongside a suddenly stout defense and an offensive attack still capable of sniping defenses into submission, has the Gators one win away from a Final Four. Of course, they'll have to topple another very good defense -- the Louisville Cardinals, who shut down No. 1-seeded Michigan State just minutes before Florida took the court Thursday. And Donovan will have to best his old coach and mentor, Rick Pitino, before UF can line up any Big Easy travel plans. (The over/under on the number of times you read about this dynamic in the next 48 hours is somewhere in the five-digit area. Fair warning.)

But one thing is clear: This is no normal 7-seed. The Gators had their share of ups and downs, sure, but this team is primed for March, playing its best basketball, as Young said, at the perfect time. We say that often about teams this time of year. Rarely does it ring so true.

"We're really locked in," Young said. "Hopefully we haven't reached that peak. Hopefully, we're still going up."

A recap of Thursday's action in the Men's Basketball Championship.

(4) Louisville 57, (1) Michigan St 44
Rick Pitino improves to 10-0 as a coach in the Sweet 16 -- the best mark of any coach in the history of the tournament -- and Tom Izzo loses to a Big East team in the Men's Basketball Championship for the first time in his career (5-1).

Michigan State's 44 points and 28.6 field goal percentage are both its worst in a Men's Basketball Championship game.

Gorgui Dieng blocked seven shots, tying both his career high and the school record for blocks in a Men's Basketball Championship game (Pervis Ellison, 1989), to help Louisville advance to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2009 and the 12th time in school history.

Draymond Green leads the Spartans with 13 points and 16 rebounds in his final collegiate game.

(1) Syracuse 64, (4) Wisconsin 63
With their victory over Wisconsin, the Orange return to the Elite Eight for the first time since winning the national championship in 2003.

With his 48th tournament victory, Jim Boeheim passes John Wooden for fifth place all-time in tournament wins.

Wisconsin shot 14-for-27 from behind the arc but just 7-for-22 from inside. The 14 3-pointers are the second-most in a tournament game for the Badgers.

The last time Syracuse won a game by one point in the NCAA tournament was the Sweet 16 in 2003, when the Orange beat Auburn 79-78 and went on to win the national championship.

It’s just the fifth time a 1 seed won by just a single point in the Sweet 16.

Wisconsin tried to impose its will in this game, limiting Syracuse to just 52 possessions. That’s the fewest possessions for Syracuse in any game in the past 15 seasons. The previous low was 54, done twice (1999 versus Princeton and 2006 versus West Virginia, both wins).

(7) Florida 68, (3) Marquette 58
Florida reaches the Elite Eight for the fourth time in seven seasons behind one of the best defensive efforts in the shot-clock era.

The Gators have allowed just 153 points through three games in the tournament; only two teams since 1986 have allowed fewer in their first three tournament wins.

The Golden Eagles made 20 field goals, just one more than their season low, but are the first team to top 50 points against Florida in this year’s tournament.

(2) Ohio State 81, (6) Cincinnati 66
Aaron Craft led the defensive effort with six steals, an Ohio State record in a Men's Basketball Championship game. The loss matches Cincinnati's worst in the Sweet 16.

Deshaun Thomas leads all scorers with 26 points (20 in the first half) and adds seven rebounds as Ohio State beats Cincinnati in the Men's Basketball Championship for the first time in school history.

Thomas joins a great list of players in the past five seasons to average at least 25.0 point per game and reach the Elite Eight. The bad news for the Buckeyes is that none of the other three players reached the Final Four.

Dick Vitale, Hubert Davis and Rece Davis discuss Florida's defense and the play of Bradley Beal.

PHOENIX -- A quick recap of Florida's 68-58 win over Marquette Thursday night:

Overview: Maybe Florida can defend after all. The Gators' defense has been their chief deficiency all season, the one major factor keeping such a talented team -- and such a high-powered offense -- from truly breaking through. But after two huge defensive performances in their first two tournament wins, the Gators kept it up, holding Marquette stars Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom to a combined 29 points on just 10-of-30 shooting from the field.

Turning point: As usual, Florida's shooting made the difference. The Gators maintained a six-point lead for the first six minutes of the first half when Erving Walker and Bradley Beal made back-to-back 3s, opening a 12-point advantage the Gators more or less maintained until the final three minutes. That's when Marquette -- thanks to a steal, a timeout call, a made 3 and a fast-break layup, all from Todd Mayo, all in the matter of 50 seconds -- drew the game back to 58-52.

On the ensuing possession, Walker found Kenny Boynton for a wide-open 3. Boynton missed, but forward Patric Young corralled the rebound and kicked it out just in time to preserve the possession. Walker knocked down a 3 of his own, stretching the lead to nine. Crowder answered with a 3 -- as expected, the Eagles refused to go away --but four free throws from Boynton essentially sealed the game.

Key player: Bradley Beal. The freshman and likely NBA lottery pick has had a mostly unsung season for the Gators, but he remains as dangerous as any player on the floor at any given time. His 21 points -- the last two of which came on a thunderous punctuation-mark dunk in the game's final minute -- came in hyperefficient fashion on 8-of-10 shooting from the field. Beal doesn't force; rather, he picks and chooses his spots. He did so brilliantly Thursday night.

Key stats: The combined marks for Crowder and Johnson-Odom tell the tale; without efficient contributions from its two stars, Marquette scored just 58 points on 66 possessions, well below its typically stellar offensive averages.

What’s next: Marquette coach Buzz Williams saw his second straight team into the Sweet 16, but that's the ceiling yet again. The Golden Eagles will go back to the drawing board in 2012-13 without their two senior stars. Meanwhile, the Gators progress to the Elite Eight, where they will meet No. 4-seeded Louisville, which got there by posting the tournament's best defensive performance to date. That should be a fascinating matchup.

Before the Sweet 16 gets under way, our experts offer their predictions for all four regions:

EAST REGION (Boston)

Jay Bilas: Ohio State over Syracuse
Eamonn Brennan: Ohio State over Wisconsin
Fran Fraschilla: Syracuse over Ohio State
John Gasaway: Ohio State over Syracuse
Doug Gottlieb: Ohio State over Syracuse
Andy Katz: Ohio State over Syracuse
Jason King: Ohio State over Syracuse
Joe Lunardi: Wisconsin over Ohio State
Myron Medcalf: Wisconsin over Cincinnati
Dana O'Neil: Ohio State over Syracuse
Miles Simon: Syracuse over Ohio State
Dick Vitale: Ohio State over Syracuse
Jay Williams: Syracuse over Cincinnati

WEST REGION (Phoenix)

Jay Bilas: Michigan State over Marquette
Eamonn Brennan: Michigan State over Marquette
Fran Fraschilla: Michigan State over Marquette
John Gasaway: Michigan State over Marquette
Doug Gottlieb: Florida over Michigan State
Andy Katz: Michigan State over Marquette
Jason King: Marquette over Michigan State
Joe Lunardi: Michigan State over Marquette
Myron Medcalf: Michigan State over Marquette
Dana O'Neil: Michigan State over Marquette
Miles Simon: Marquette over Michigan State
Dick Vitale: Michigan State over Marquette
Jay Williams: Marquette over Michigan State

SOUTH REGION (Atlanta)

Jay Bilas: Kentucky over Baylor
Eamonn Brennan: Kentucky over Baylor
Fran Fraschilla: Kentucky over Baylor
John Gasaway: Kentucky over Baylor
Doug Gottlieb: Kentucky over Baylor
Andy Katz: Kentucky over Baylor
Jason King: Kentucky over Baylor
Joe Lunardi: Kentucky over Baylor
Myron Medcalf: Kentucky over Xavier
Dana O'Neil: Kentucky over Xavier
Miles Simon: Kentucky over Baylor
Dick Vitale: Kentucky over Baylor
Jay Williams: Kentucky over Baylor

MIDWEST REGION (St. Louis)

Jay Bilas: Kansas over North Carolina
Eamonn Brennan: Kansas over North Carolina
Fran Fraschilla: North Carolina over Kansas
John Gasaway: Kansas over North Carolina
Doug Gottlieb: Kansas over North Carolina
Andy Katz: North Carolina over Kansas
Jason King: North Carolina over Kansas
Joe Lunardi: Kansas over North Carolina
Myron Medcalf: Kansas over North Carolina
Dana O'Neil: Kansas over North Carolina
Miles Simon: Kansas over North Carolina
Dick Vitale: North Carolina over Kansas
Jay Williams: NC State over North Carolina

PHOENIX -- A lesson to those still getting to know Marquette coach Buzz Williams:

If you give him a chance to be self-deprecating, he will take it. Boy, will he ever take it.

Asked Wednesday how he would compare himself to the three other coaches in this region -- Florida's Billy Donovan, Michigan State's Tom Izzo and Louisville's Rick Pitino -- Williams didn't hesitate to draw the differences. And, as usual, he came prepared with numbers to buttress his case.

"Coach Donovan has won 27 NCAA tournament games," Williams said. "Coach Izzo has won 37. Coach Pitino has won 40. All of them have won national championships. All of them have coached in the [NBA] or decided they didn't want to coach in the league. And the league that I should be in is the Lone Star Conference, a Division II league in Texas. I should be an assistant in that league. So I don't belong. I don't compare.

"I wish that would have been a question on the SAT. I wouldn't have had to go to junior college. [On] the word association on the SAT, I would have gotten that right."

This is the Buzz college hoops fans have come to know the past four seasons: a witty, effusive presence who dresses to impress on the sideline (Williams says his one non-basketball hobby is clothes: "I really like looking at different shirts and ties and suits and gear"), dances when his players dunk (just YouTube it), dances to West Virginia's "Country Roads" in Morgantown (for which Williams again apologized Wednesday), and who, despite all the fun, works so relentlessly that in 2010 he was told by a doctor at the Mayo Clinic he would "die a very early death" unless he dedicated himself to getting more sleep.

Williams' edge is borne of his beginnings. He earned his nickname during his time at Navarro College, when Navarro coach Lewis Orr remarked that Williams constantly "buzzed" around the men's basketball program at the Texas school. At 21, Williams landed his first coaching job by first camping in a hotel lobby at the Final Four and then, ultimately, outside the house of University of Texas-Arlington coach Eddie McCarter.

Now 39 and four years into his tenure at Marquette, Williams has reconfigured an already successful hoops program in his image. Last season, Williams' first trip to the Sweet 16 came thanks to four former junior college players: Darius Johnson-Odom, Jae Crowder, Jimmy Butler and Dwight Buycks. Butler was drafted last season and Buycks graduated, but Crowder and Johnson-Odom remain, not only as senior leaders but as two of the top five contenders for Big East player of the year.

Crowder won the award, but Johnson-Odom was just as qualified. Together, they lead a team whose identity stems from its coach, and vice versa.

"There's no telling what you might see from our coach," Johnson-Odom said. "He's very enthusiastic about what he does. I think that's why a lot of people love him. When you have that much energy, to show your guys that 'I'm here for you guys,' the coach just wants to win because of the stuff he has been through as a coach. As his players, I think it's a joy to see."

Williams also brings another element to the table, one occasionally lost in the talk about shirt-tie combos and junior colleges and "Country Roads" -- few head coaches in the country are as open and fluent in the language of tempo-free statistics. To wit, of Florida, Williams said Wednesday:

"There's very few teams -- everybody knows that they lead the country in 3-point field goal makes, but there's very few teams that have that offensive rebounding percentage and at the same time have those offensive efficiency-type numbers. So it's as potent an offensive team as I've studied this year."

This isn't just manna for college hoops nerds (though we'll certainly take it); it's also a key reason Williams finds himself wedged in a West Region with three of college basketball's most successful coaches, just two winnable games away from the Final Four.

To get there, of course, his team will first and foremost have to handle Florida's aforementioned potent offense. The good news? Marquette's perimeter defense is among the best units remaining in the tournament; since Feb. 24, only one team (BYU) has shot better than 28 percent from beyond the arc against the Golden Eagles. That may be the key matchup in Thursday's second game in Phoenix (10:17 p.m. ET), and the one that could push Williams further than he's ever been in his head coaching career: to the Elite Eight.

Whatever happens, the matchup of two speedy, guard-oriented teams should be one of the tournament's best to date -- a reprise of Marquette's thrilling, hard-fought win over Murray State in the round of 32.

And if Williams' team wins, maybe we'll even see a little dance.

"How could you not love a guy like that?" Johnson-Odom said.

Who to watch

Marquette's Darius Johnson-Odom: DJO's offensive skills are well-documented, but where he will be especially important is on the defensive end. Florida's guards fire more 3s than most, and the Gators' offense -- which relies on ball screens and spacing and minimal post opportunities for forward Patric Young -- has to be efficient from distance to make up for what has been for much of the season a merely mediocre defense.

Florida's Kenny Boynton: Boynton has quietly had a stellar season, at least on the offensive end. There are plenty of worthy guards on this team -- from diminutive senior Erving Walker to likely lottery pick freshman Bradley Beal to former Rutgers transfer and bench spark plug Mike Rosario -- but Boynton's consistency has made him the most indispensable part of Florida's attack.

What to watch

Florida's defense: Florida's somewhat disappointing regular season -- at least relative to preseason expectations and the immense talent of its personnel -- had much to do with a defense that couldn't force stops or turnovers and would fall behind when UF's outside shooting hit occasional (though rare) slumps. But the Gators have shown signs of a postseason turnaround. In their two NCAA tournament victories, they allowed their opponents (Virginia and Norfolk State) a mere .71 and .77 points per possession, respectively. But is that improvement real, or the product of meager opposition? We know Marquette will come to play on defense, and we know the Golden Eagles are capable of scoring in bunches on the other end. Whether Florida has made legitimate defensive strides will almost certainly decide who goes home Thursday night.

When North Carolina guard Kendall Marshall fractured his wrist in Sunday's win against Creighton, it was momentarily easy to forget Marshall isn't the most talented or productive player on his team. There's Tyler Zeller and Harrison Barnes and John Henson, and that's just for starters. So why is losing Marshall such a big deal?

Because he is, without question, UNC's most important player. The most efficient? No. The most gifted? Probably not. But there's little question Marshall -- with his visionary, table-setting passing (second nationally in assists), intelligent tempo management and offensive initiation, and the lack of a viable backup -- was/is the most crucial personnel component to Carolina's style, identity and ultimately success.

Which got us thinking: Who is everyone else's Marshall? Who's the most indispensable player on each of the Sweet 16 rosters, the one each team could least afford to lose? Well, we're glad you (OK, we) asked. Here's what we came up with:

South Region

No. 1 Kentucky: Anthony Davis, forward -- No overthinking this one. Sure, there's an argument to be made for Marquis Teague, who appeared for much of the season to be Kentucky's lone potential weakness; Teague's two months of consistently increased success -- culminating in a brilliant performance in a rout of Iowa State -- have cast doubts about whether he could be easily replaced. But one can envision a scenario in which guard Doron Lamb, whose ballhandling is probably slightly underrated at this point, would be able to get UK into its offense. Coach John Calipari would find a way to make it work. Without Davis, the Cats lose a downright transcendent shot-blocking force and the source of countless easy baskets on the other end of the floor, the type of player who opposing coaches frequently say "changes the game." It's Davis, and it's hard to find the counterintuitive argument here.

No. 3 Baylor: Quincy Acy, forward -- While not the most talented big man in Baylor's lineup, Acy's absence would irreparably harm the Bears for two obvious reasons: He scores easy buckets in the low block, and he rebounds. Perry Jones III does some of these same things, too, but hardly to the level Acy does (and not nearly as consistently), and the Bears -- a very good offensive rebounding team that struggles on the defensive glass -- would not be nearly as good on offense were Acy not around to clean up so many misses.

No. 4 Indiana: Cody Zeller, forward -- Again, no use in overthinking this. Zeller is by far IU's leader in offensive efficiency and rebounding, and he has changed the way the Hoosiers -- who were immensely foul-prone the past three years under Tom Crean -- guard the rim and chase down misses. Plus, without him, Indiana's big man rotation would consist of Tom Pritchard and Derek Elston. We've seen that movie before. It was not critically acclaimed.

No. 10 Xavier: Kenny Frease, center -- Sticking with the all-big-men theme here, Frease is the most indispensable player because Xavier really doesn't have another guy who can do what he does, primarily on the glass. If star guard Tu Holloway went missing, the Musketeers would certainly lack for offensive creativity, but they'd have another talented (if mercurial) guard in Mark Lyons, who would no doubt be more than willing to hoist a few extra shots. Without Frease, Chris Mack's team would be in no-man's-land on the low block.

West Region

No. 1 Michigan State: Draymond Green, forward -- When you do this much for your team, your membership on this list requires no explanation. Really, it's not even close.

No. 3 Marquette: Darius Johnson-Odom, guard -- Jae Crowder's breakout senior season has been a huge factor in this team's success, no doubt about it. But DJO's relentless, attacking, bruising style -- not to mention his all-court game, his lockdown perimeter defense and his ability to go end-to-end on the fast break both with rim finishes and pull-up jumpers -- gives this Marquette team its hard-won identity.

No. 4 Louisville: Gorgui Dieng, forward -- I promise, this list isn't all forwards. The obvious answer here is Peyton Siva, but the Cardinals already have a pretty willing on-ball defender and shot-happy penetrator in guard Russ Smith, while Dieng -- a crazy-lanky shot-blocker, rebounder and defensive anchor -- has keyed so much of the Cards' No. 2-ranked per-possession defense this season.

No. 7 Florida: Kenny Boynton, guard -- The original temptation was to go with another big man, in this case Patric Young, but let's be real: The Gators don't use their frontcourt on offense anyway. Which is why Boynton's ability not only to take a lot of long-range jumpers but actually make them at a high rate is so important. That isn't always the case with the rest of this backcourt. Plus, Boynton -- with the possible exception of Bradley Beal -- happens to be Florida's most creative scorer off the dribble, one of the Gators' few players who can do more than chuck long-range shots to fuel this high-powered offense.

Midwest Region

No. 1 North Carolina: Kendall Marshall, guard -- By now, you get the idea.

No. 2 Kansas: Tyshawn Taylor, guard -- The obvious choice is Thomas Robinson and, you know, duh: Dude's a national player of the year candidate for a reason. But at this stage of the season, Kansas' ability to win a national title rests in large part on Taylor's play at the point guard spot. If he is on -- attacking the rim and finding teammates without coughing up turnovers -- he's truly the biggest X factor on Bill Self's team. If he's off, the Jayhawks turn to Elijah Johnson, Travis Releford and ... Conner Teahan? The defense rests.

No. 11 North Carolina State: Lorenzo Brown, guard -- C.J. Leslie has blossomed into this team's most impressive player, but its point guard deserves as much if not more credit for the unlikely late-season Sweet 16 run this Wolfpack team has somehow managed to piece together. On a team with no tournament experience and plenty of young players, Brown's calming influence on the ball is a major asset.

No. 13 Ohio: D.J. Cooper, guard -- Cooper demonstrated his worth with huge shots down the stretch against a South Florida team that prides itself on disallowing exactly the kind of offensive display Cooper generated. For a team with the No. 2-ranked opponents' turnover percentage in the country, Cooper's 4.3 percent steals rate (the 22nd-ranked individual mark in the country) truly makes it go.

East Region

No. 1 Syracuse: C.J. Fair, forward -- It's hard to pick from Syracuse's still-stacked-minus-Fab lineup, but Fair gets the nod. With all due respect to Scoop Jardine, Dion Waiters, Kris Joseph and Brandon Triche, the Orange wouldn't exactly hurt for scoring guards were one of them to suffer an injury. If Fair went down, Jim Boeheim would lose his last truly effective big man, and the only viable interior option this side of Rakeem Christmas and Baye Keita.

No. 2 Ohio State: William Buford, guard -- This is a bit of a tricky one, because there's simply no replacing Jared Sullinger's interior prowess or Aaron Craft's incredible perimeter defense. But if OSU is truly a national title threat -- and it looks the part thus far -- that's because Buford, who struggled with his shot in nearly every Ohio State loss this season, isn't cashing in from the perimeter. Having Buford as a go-to option on the outside only aids Sullinger's load and takes as much pressure off Craft and the rest of the Buckeyes as possible. The senior has to score efficiently for this team to make a run. Simple as that.

No. 4 Wisconsin: Jordan Taylor, guard -- Again: No overthinking required, no explanation needed. May a resounding duh ring forth across the land.

No. 6 Cincinnati: Yancy Gates, forward -- With all due respect to Sean Kilpatrick, who has quietly become one of the stars of the tournament, the Bearcats would be a team full of guards with no interior punch (sorry) were it not for the indomitable Gates. Losing Kilpatrick would be a major blow, but lineup and skill-set facsimiles abound. Not so with Gates. He's crucial.

The ESPN College Basketball Power Index rates the West Region as the strongest in the Sweet 16. All four teams are ranked in the top 20 nationally in BPI.

However, saying that West is best is a misnomer in one regard.

There are no teams left from the Mountain or Pacific time zones in the Men's Basketball Championship, only the second year since 1975 that the Sweet 16 field did not have at least one team from the Pacific OR Mountain time zones.

The only other year that happened was 1985, when the closest team to either time zone was Oklahoma (Central Time zone).

Let's look at a couple of statistical tidbits related to the teams the West will adopt as honorary members during the regional semifinals.

Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans (Thursday, 7:47 p.m. ET)
Michigan State has scored a tournament-best 86 paint points, well above its average of 34 paint points per game. The Spartans have dominated around the basket, shooting 73 percent on shots from in-close.

The Cardinals have held 10 straight opponents below 45 percent shooting from the field and six straight opponents below 22 percent from 3-point range.

Since the start of the Big East Tournament, teams are shooting 38 percent from the field and 18 percent on 3-point attempts against the Cardinals.

The key to that has been Louisville’s 2-3 zone defense. Louisville has held opponents to 34 percent shooting and forced 17 turnovers while playing zone against half-court sets in the past two games (opponents shot 41 percent against Louisville's man defense). Louisville has consistently ranked among the best teams at getting steals all season, doing so on 13 percent of opponents' possesions (seventh-best nationally)

Both coaches figure to have their teams well prepared. Michigan State's Tom Izzo is 5-0 all-time in tournament play against Big East teams. Louisville's Rick Pitino is 9-0 all-time in the Round of 16, with all of those wins coming by double figures.

The Spartans have a slight edge, by BPI, in which they ranked fourth nationally. Louisville ranked 11th.

Florida Gators vs. Marquette Golden Eagles (Thursday, 10:17 p.m. ET)
By BPI's account, this game is almost an even matchup. Florida and Marquette finished even in BPI and were separated by one tenth of a point in ESPN's strength of schedule evaluation.

No team makes more 3-pointers than Florida (9.8 per game). The Gators have made at least 10 3-pointers in three of their past four games and 22 of their 35 games this season.

Marquette can defend the 3-point line. The Golden Eagles have held their past 10 opponents to 28 percent 3-point shooting and none of them have made more than seven 3-pointers or shot better than 40 percent.

The 3-point shooting has been a little off in the tournament (14-for-51), but the Gators are shooting 79 percent and averaging 38 points per game in the paint during the Men’s Basketball Championship, both of which rank second in the field. The Gators entered the tournament averaging 28.8 paint points per game, seventh-most in the SEC.

Marquette has outscored its opponents by 11.0 points per game in transition during the 2012 Men’s Basketball Championship. Yet, it’s not all positive for the Golden Eagles, as they lead the field with 10 transition turnovers.

Darius Johnson-Odom has attempted the most transition field goals and scored the most transition points of any player in the 2012 Men’s Basketball Championship.

Johnson-Odom averaged 5.5 transition points per game in his first 31 games this season but has scored 19 transition points in the first two games of the tournament.

Johnson-Odom has also been huge in the paint these last two games, as noted in the chart on the right.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Marquette is going to the Sweet 16, which is like saying the sweat-soaked dress shirts of MU coach Buzz Williams are going to the dry cleaners. It's almost a given.

Saturday evening at the KFC Yum! Center, Marquette defeated Murray State, 62-53, in a game that was part MMA, part football and all big-boy basketball. Unless you lost a body part on a play, the refs swallowed their whistles.

"We're thankful," said Williams. "I thought the physicality game was as much as we have seen in a long time."

Get a large bag of truck lug nuts. Now hit yourself repeatedly in the face and chest with them. That's what it's like to go 40 minutes against Williams' Golden Eagles.

For the rest of Gene Wojciechowski's column, click here.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- You'd never know it now by looking at his sculpted body, but Marquette's Jae Crowder used to be pudgy, to put it kindly.

Going into his junior year of high school, Crowder was a 5-foot-11 point guard. He weighed 235 pounds.

"I still had my Gary Payton shuffle," he said. "Backing people down. That was me."

What Crowder is now is one of the most versatile, important players left in this NCAA tournament. He led Marquette into the Sweet 16 for the second straight year with two enormous games at the KFC Yum! Center this week, including his heroics down the stretch in a 62-53 victory over a tough Murray State team Saturday.

Crowder had his second consecutive double-double, with 17 points and 13 rebounds, but that only partially reveals the 6-foot-6 senior's importance. His fingerprints were all over the Golden Eagles' closing kick, during which they went from down 46-41 to up 55-48 to take control. He hit a key 3-pointer during the run after struggling with his shot in the first half. He also took a big charge and came up with a steal late as Marquette's defense clamped down in the final minutes.

That's what the Big East player of the year has been doing all season.

"He doesn't care about stats or anything," Marquette guard Junior Cadougan said. "He just plays to win."

Crowder didn't even get serious about basketball until the end of his high school career in Villa Rica, Ga. He preferred football, in which he played quarterback. That is, until he broke his hand late in his senior season on a running play, and when he realized he wasn't going to play Division I in that sport. Besides, he had hit a growth spurt that took him up to 6-foot-4, helping his body better carry his weight. And basketball was in his genes, as his father, Corey, had played in the NBA and professionally overseas.

So Crowder got focused and started his college career at South Georgia Tech. To his horror, he later found out the junior college wasn't accredited, meaning none of his coursework would transfer to another school. He had no choice but to go to yet another two-year school, this time heading to Howard College in Texas. He spent the summer holed up in his dorm room, taking courses online to make up for lost time and not knowing a soul in town.

Through all that, Crowder kept flourishing on the court, eventually leading Howard to its first national title. He had to fight perception that disciplinary or other reasons sent him to two different junior colleges. But he found a kindred soul when Marquette coach Buzz Williams came on a recruiting call.

"He said, 'If you want a coach to be on your butt -- he used profanity, of course -- come play for me,'" Crowder said. "If you want a coach to give you stuff and not get you better as a basketball player and a person, go elsewhere."

Crowder loved the honesty, and he fit right in with Marquette's mindset of toughness and physicality, pulling sleds and doing other football-type drills to build strength. The 240-pounder is now built like a defensive end, and Williams said NFL teams have even asked him about Crowder. But he also still has his point guard skills and can play anywhere on the court.

"He can be a physical player and he can shoot jumpers," said 6-foot-8, 290-pound teammate Davante Gardner, whom Crowder sometimes checks in practice. "He does everything."

Crowder was a good player on a Sweet 16 team last year, but he knew he had to make the transition to great in the offseason. He spent the summer in Fort Myers, Fla., working out daily with his father, running through cones, using a basketball shooting machine and doing other exercises.

"You could see a drastic improvement," Cadougan said. "He really learned how to work."

Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom are the two leaders on this team, and the Golden Eagles needed every bit of them to slip past Murray State. The Racers showed everybody this weekend why they went into Saturday at 31-1, matching Marquette's intensity beat for beat. They just couldn't hit shots down the stretch.

And they didn't have Jae Crowder. The definitively non-pudgy version.

Hubert Davis on Marquette advancing to Sweet 16 with 62-53 win over Murray State.