ESPN Men's Basketball

Yes, that’s right: After Wednesday’s signing day madness -- Nerlens Noel to Kentucky, Shabazz Muhammad to UCLA, extra extra, read all about it -- we’ve gone and built another extremely early top 25. I know, I know. You’re excited.

The whole “too early” thing isn’t just shtick; it really is way too early to be thinking about next season’s top 25 (as if preseason rankings matter in the first place). This is all just guesswork. Fun, mostly pointless guesswork. But it’s the offseason! What else are we supposed to do?

In any case, you can check out the top 25 here. Not everyone could make the cut, which is where the rest of this post comes in. Here’s a look at some of the best teams that didn’t land in today’s top 25 -- and what they’ll bring to the floor in 2012-13:

VCU: It’s clear the Rams weren’t a one-show pony in 2011; in fact, as coach Shaka Smart is proving, this is a program with staying power. Indeed, with the exception of NCAA tournament play, Smart’s 2011-12 team was considerably better than the one that made 2011’s unlikely run, and that looks likely to be the case again in 2012-13. With star guard Darius Theus alongside returners Briante Weber, Troy Daniels, Rob Brandenberg and Treveon Graham -- and with Bradford Burgess’s little brother Jordan arriving as a freshman in the fall -- this may be the best HAVOC-style defensive team of Smart’s tenure.

Kansas State: The 2012-13 Kansas State Wildcats won’t make any aesthetically inclined fan’s list of must-see teams. With just one player signed for the class of 2012 -- three-star center Laimonas Chatkevicius -- recruiting isn’t going to get anyone all hot and bothered, either. But boring as the Wildcats may seem, their returning solidity will give them a chance to be effective. Those returners include 7-foot forward Jordan Henriquez and veteran backcourt members Will Spradling, Rodney McGruder and Angel Rodriguez, who was inconsistent but promising as a freshman last season. This group wasn’t all that much to look at in 2012, either, but under former coach Frank Martin, it thrived on rebounding, defense and toughness. Newly hired coach Bruce Weber will love to work with this team.

Tennessee: The 2011-12 Tennessee Volunteers were a rebuilding team -- a post-Bruce Pearl mess, which is what they were supposed to be -- until Jan. 21, and no further. That’s when Tennessee took down Connecticut at home and went on to win 10 of its last 13 games and land the No. 2 seed in the SEC tournament, just behind the Kentucky Wildcats. Tennessee’s early season woes prevented the Vols from making the NCAA tournament, but Cuonzo Martin set a clear tone for his new program, one that should carry over -- with a little help from sophomore Jarnell Stokes, whose midseason freshman arrival synced up with the Volunteers’ run -- into his second year in Knoxville.

Saint Louis: Make no mistake: The Billikens will miss Brian Conklin, a 6-foot-6 forward who played more like he was 6-10, with the interior scoring numbers to match. Otherwise, Rick Majerus’ team -- which gave Michigan State a go in the NCAA tournament’s third round -- is back. Kwamain Mitchell, Dwayne Evans, Cody Ellis, Mike McCall and Jordair Jett; these are the players who brought Majerus and SLU back to some measure of national prominence in 2011-12. There’s no reason to expect anything less in the season to come.

Cincinnati: When Yancy Gates faded Xavier center Kenny Frease on Dec. 10, we didn’t know how Cincy’s season would end up. But few would have expected the Bearcats in general -- and Gates specifically -- to so fully turn their fortunes around. Now, Mick Cronin must move on without his powerful senior center. If Cincy lands center Christopher Obekpa, the No. 77 recruit in the ESPNU 100, all the better. (For what it’s worth, many scouts think Obekpa is heading to Providence.) But if not, Cronin can lean on the accomplished veteran backcourt of Sean Kilpatrick, Cashmere Wright and Jaquon Parker.

Five more to watch:

Ohio: The Bobcats lost coach John Groce to Illinois ... and that’s pretty much it. As returning lineups go, you can’t do much better than this. All 10 of Ohio’s rotation players from last season -- which ended in a Sweet 16 finish, lest we forget -- are back in 2012-13, including star guard D.J. Cooper.

Marquette: The Golden Eagles lost their two best players, seniors Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder, to the inescapable maw of time. But every main contributor around that star duo will be back, including Vander Blue, Davante Gardner, Chris Otule (coming off a December ACL injury), Todd Mayo and Junior Cadougan. This will remain a talented up-tempo team led by one of the nation’s most tireless coaches in Buzz Williams.

Butler: Will the Bulldogs return to prominence in 2012-13? It certainly looks that way. Brad Stevens’ young team will be without senior guard Ronald Nored, but otherwise will be a year older and wiser next season, while its chief deficiency -- shooting, scoring, offense in general -- should be alleviated by the arrival of sharpshooting Arkansas transfer Rotnei Clarke. Butler may not get back to the Final Four, but a return to the top of the Horizon League looks likely.

Miami: The Hurricanes were one of a handful of bubble teams left behind on Selection Sunday; in the end, a win at Duke in ACC play wasn’t enough to make up for an otherwise mediocre résumé. But 2012-13 holds some measure of promise. Star guard Durand Scott returns, as do forwards Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji. If the Hurricanes continue to improve under Jim Larranaga, they should be dancing in no time.

Maryland: The Terrapins struggled during the program's first post-Gary Williams season, but the pieces are in place for a step forward in Year 2. Star guard Terrell Stoglin -- one of the ACC's best perimeter scorers -- is back, as is center Alex Len. Meanwhile, coach Mark Turgeon is already reaping the rewards of a renewed focus on elite-level recruiting: ESPNU top 100 players Shaquille Cleare and Jake Layman highlight a solid incoming class that should contribute right away.

Honorable mentions: Alabama, Florida State, Pitt, Murray State, Stanford, Saint Mary’s, Iowa State, Xavier, Nevada.

ATLANTA -- Chants of "We want Duke" started with a little more than a minute remaining in Friday night's ACC second-round finale.

But they weren't for Miami.

The chants of "N-I-T" from giddy Florida State fans just before the final two free throws of the game, however, were.

It was a harsh way to leave Philips Arena -- and Atlanta -- for the Hurricanes, who lost 82-71 to Florida State in the quarterfinals, but the verbal shots taken by the rival fan base could be heartbreaking clues to Miami's postseason fate.

Entering the ACC tournament, the Hurricanes, who sit at 19-12 on the season, needed to make some sort of run. Step 1 was completed Thursday with a 54-36 victory over Georgia Tech. It was a game that ended with Miami's offense clicking and led to thoughts of a classic second-round matchup with FSU.

However, at Miami's pregame meal three hours before tip-off, coach Jim Larranaga dropped a bombshell when he told his players that starting guard, and leading scorer, Durand Scott was out for the game. The school later said he was ruled ineligible for receiving impermissible benefits.

So Miami, which had dealt with its fair share of distractions and adversity all season, entered Friday night's contest down arguably its best player.

As much as the Canes fought, they didn't have enough. Missing Scott, there wasn't that consistent lane presence, that suffocating defender or that calming effect on the court. Freshman guard Shane Larkin said Miami tried to fill Scott's role by committee, but it just couldn't.

Because of that, Miami is once again on the outside looking in when it comes to the NCAA tournament.

"The selection committee does a great job of analyzing everybody's resume and their body of work throughout the entire season," Larranaga said. "I don't think it comes down to one game. We've played enough that if we do get selected, I think we can make a run in the tournament.

"That's out of our hands. Those are not things we can control."

What Miami did control was another off shooting night in the first half. The Canes shot under 30 percent in first frame in back-to-back games and couldn't get out of the hole they dug in the first 20 minutes.

Mistakes and miscues helped the poor shooting effort, and Larkin said it was hard to stomach just how close he thought his team had come to securing a tournament bid.

"We tried to fight through [adversity] again, like we have all year, but it just wasn't enough tonight," Larkin said.

"I still think we're a tournament team. You never want to leave that decision to the committee."

But Miami did, and now the question is if the NCAA will take a look at what the Canes have done considering their situation. They played without center Reggie Johnson until December because of a knee injury and were without senior guard/forward DeQuan Jones for the first 10 games because of an NCAA investigation into recruiting allegations.

Then Scott's situation arose and Miami failed to overcome its latest bout with misfortune.

Miami's loss could be other bubble teams' gains. Now, one of those other bubble teams could slip past the Canes in the pecking order.

Miami won't truly know anything until Sunday, and you can bet that the countdown to Selection Sunday will be torturous.

"You wish you could write a letter to the NCAA pleading your case," Larkin said. "There's nothing you can do now. You just sit here and wait and the agony of knowing that you had a chance to put yourself in there, like permanently without no doubt, it's tough."

ATLANTA -- Florida State took the season series with Miami and advanced to the semifinals of the ACC tournament with an 82-71 victory Friday.

The Seminoles out-ran, out-muscled and outplayed the Hurricanes in the first half, outscoring the Hurricanes by nine and connecting on 7 of 12 3-pointers. FSU got a bit sluggish to start the second half, but never let its lead dip below three points in the second frame.

For the second consecutive game, Miami was awful shooting the ball in the first half, but unlike their first-round win over Georgia Tech, the Hurricanes were unable to go on a scoring spree in the second half, allowing FSU to keep a consistent lead.

One reason for Miami's shortcomings offensively was the fact that the Canes were without leading scorer Durand Scott, who was ruled ineligible before the game for receiving impermissible benefits.

Turning point: Poor first-half shooting doomed the Hurricanes. Miami shot 28.1 percent from the field (9-of-32) to Florida State's 42.9 percent (12-of-28). In the second half, Miami started hot, but never gained a lead against the Noles, who outscored Miami by two in the second frame.

Key player: Michael Snaer kept FSU moving throughout the game. He led the Noles with 8 points at the half and finished with a game-high 20. He hit 5 of 7 shots, including going 4-of-5 from beyond the arc. He also had 4 rebounds, 2 assists, a steal and a block.

Key stat: FSU's defense frustrated Miami all night, especially in the paint. FSU altered a number of attempts and blocked 10 Miami shots in the process. FSU also turned the ball over 11 times after turning it over 33 times combined in the first two games against the Canes.

Miscellaneous: This was the first meeting between the two schools in the ACC tournament ... Miami held Georgia Tech to a tournament-low 36 points in the first-round game, but gave up 36 points to the Noles by halftime. ... FSU forward Bernard James dislocated his finger early in the second half, but he returned with 9:37 remaining. ... The last time FSU was in Atlanta for the ACC tournament, the Seminoles played in the championship game for the first time in school history. The Noles lost to Duke; FSU plays Duke on Saturday.

What’s next: With the win, FSU is still in the hunt for a No. 4 seed or better in the NCAA tournament; the Seminoles are likely a 4 or 5 seed right now. A win over the Blue Devils on Saturday and the Noles could be in a fight for a 3 seed if they were to win the championship game Sunday. Miami is back on major bubble watch. The Canes entered the tournament on the outside looking in and while they helped their cause with a victory Thursday, the Canes will surely be sweating it out until Selection Sunday.

ATLANTA -- Miami will be without its leading scorer against Florida State in the second round of the ACC tournament.

The school announced Friday that junior guard Durand Scott was ruled ineligible for receiving impermissible benefits.

Here's the statement from Miami:

The University of Miami has declared men's basketball student-athlete Durand Scott ineligible for receiving impermissible benefits and is immediately seeking his reinstatement from the NCAA.

Scott was averaging 12.9 points per game and scored 11 points on 4-of-4 shooting in the Hurricanes' 54-36 victory over Georgia Tech in Thursday's first-round game. He also grabbed seven rebounds and two steals.

ATLANTA -- Looking back at the first half against Georgia Tech on Thursday night, Shane Larkin could see why people will question if Miami deserves to be a part of the NCAA tournament.

Miami's freshman guard was front and center for the Hurricanes' putrid first 20 minutes of action at the ACC tournament. He and his teammates shot 6-of-25 (.240) from the field, turned the ball over seven times, had one assist and scored just 19 points. If not for Georgia Tech's equally grotesque first-half performance, the Canes might be doing a lot of self-loathing right about now.

But there are always two sides of a game, and Larkin prefers to focus on the second half -- the half in which Miami trounced the Yellow Jackets in their own backyard. It was a half where the Canes shot 41 percent from the field and suffocated Georgia Tech with its smothering defense.

Miami's utilization of the full-court press stymied the Yellow Jackets, forcing them to make mistake after mistake, leading to 12 of Georgia Tech's 20 turnovers. Larkin, who was benched to start the second half for sloppy, lackadaisical play, awoke to score 10 of his team-high 12 points in the second frame. Guard Rion Brown came off the bench to drain back-to-back 3s that helped spark a crippling 18-0 run early in the second.

The Canes were smarter, tougher and faster and played their way into the field of 68 with the 54-36 victory, according to Larkin.

"I know you have to pass the eye test and if people were watching that, we looked like a terrible team in the first half," Larkin said. "If they watch the whole game, they'll see that we're a very talented team (with) a lot of people who can score the ball, great bigs, and we deserve a chance to play in the tournament."

The Canes entered Thursday's game with an RPI of 51, a strength of schedule of 50 and a 3-10 record against the RPI top 100. Those numbers aren't pretty, and the only things keeping this team alive are victories over Duke and Florida State. That means Miami will likely need to make some sort of run in the ACC tournament.

That run started with its blowout of Georgia Tech, a team counted out of the tournament months ago, and could continue with a win over Florida State on Friday. Miami is 1-1 against FSU, and would get back in the tournament committee's good graces with another win over the 17th-ranked Seminoles.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Miami as one of the last four out, so work needs to be done, but senior guard Malcolm Grant said his team can't worry about brackets and possibilities. Winning will cure everything for Miami.

"[Friday's] a big game for us, but we don't want to go in there thinking that if we win we're definitely in the tournament because we don't want to put added pressure on ourselves," Grant said.

To Larkin, Miami's body of work, which includes 19 wins, isn't the only thing that should send the Canes dancing. He thinks the second-half effort Thursday shows how dangerous and exciting this team could be in the tournament.

Given the chance, Larkin believes Miami would be quite the date for the Big Dance.

"We're a very talented team, can do a lot of things, and we showed that in the second half," he said.

ATLANTA --Miami overcame dreadful shooting in the first half to roll right over Georgia Tech 54-36 in the finale of the first round of the ACC tournament Thursday.

For a team that shot pretty well during the regular season, the Hurricanes were erratic during the first half against the Yellow Jackets. Miami sank just 6 of 25 (24 percent) first-half shots, on its way to just 19 points. The good news for the Canes was that Georgia Tech struggled to find the bottom of the basket as well, scoring just 20 points on 8-of-26 shooting.

Things changed for the better for the Canes in the second frame, as they had outscored Georgia Tech 23-9 halfway through the second half. It helped that the Yellow Jackets turned the ball over 20 times, including 12 in the second half.

Miami found a spark off the bench in guard Rion Brown, who scored eight of his 10 points in the second. He helped fuel an 18-0 run for the Canes early in the second half with back-to-back 3s and a scintillating dunk on an alley-oop pass. After that run, the Canes never looked back.

Turning point: The 18-0 Miami run — which started with two free throws from guard/forward DeQuan Jones with 13:14 remaining — did the Yellow Jackets in. The Hurricanes went up 42-27 after hitting eight of nine shots, including two 3s from Brown, during the run, while Georgia Tech missed five consecutive shots and turned the ball over four times.

Key player: Freshman guard Shane Larkin did everything for the Canes. He owned the point, scoring a team-high 12 points, registering 3 steals and 3 assists, and snagging a rebound.

Key stat: Georgia Tech turned the ball over 20 times to Miami's 10.

Miscellaneous: Miami's 19 points and 24 percent shooting clip in the first half were the second-lowest outputs for the Hurricanes in those two categories at the half this season. Georgia Tech scored just 20 points, marking the seventh time this season that the Yellow Jackets have scored 20 or fewer at the half. ... Both teams combined for 14 baskets and 37 misses in the first half. ... Miami entered the game shooting 36 percent from 3-point land, but hit just 3-of-18 (16.7) Thursday night. ... Miami outscored Georgia Tech 35-16 in the second half.

What's next: Georgia Tech's season is over, while Miami will look to enhance its tournament chances with a victory over Florida State on Friday. The Canes are 1-1 against Florida State this season, including beating the Seminoles 78-62 the last time these two got together. Miami still appears to be on the outside looking in when it comes to the NCAA tournament, but a win over Florida State would certainly go a long way to helping its chances.

Before Monday's full bracket is released, here's a sneak peek at the basics of Bracketology with Sunday's bubble-impact games now in the books.

NOTABLE

• Arizona drops out of field with loss at Arizona State.
• Texas moves back into field as the last team in.
• With Cal’s loss at Stanford, Washington clinches Pac-12 regular-season title.
• Middle Tennessee falls out of field with loss to Arkansas State in Sun Belt tourney and is a fringe bubble team.

Last Four In
Northwestern
Seton Hall
Xavier
Texas

First Four Out
Tennessee
VCU
Oregon
NC State

Next Four Out
Miami (Fla.)
Iona
Arizona
Saint Joseph's

Also considered: Dayton, Marshall, Ole Miss, Middle Tennessee

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

NCAA AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Murray State (Ohio Valley)
UNC Asheville (Big South)

Believe it or not, a certain massive matchup in Durham, N.C., isn't the only college hoops game on the schedule today. Hard to believe, I know, but it's true.

Here's a look at much of the action -- bubble and otherwise -- that served as the appetizer to tonight's main course. Be sure to check back later this evening for our writers' reactions and analysis from across the country.

No. 7 Marquette 83, No. 12 Georgetown 69: When March calms down, and the offseason finishes out its usual assortment of draft decisions, coaching intrigue and off-campus arrests (and everything else), I'm going to sit down one week and calculate college hoops winning percentages on senior night. With the exception of Northwestern (which lost in heartbreaking fashion Wednesday), it felt like nearly every team in the country won its final home game of the season this week. A lot of that is just good, old-fashioned home-court advantage, and some of it is skill and so forth, but when you strip all that away, I'm still going to guess pretty much every college hoops team in the country sees a massive bounce in its winning in the final home game of the season. Quantifying emotion is never easy. This feels like a chance.

In any case, Marquette followed this (presumably real, potentially imagined) trend Saturday, easily handling a Georgetown team that was itself coming off a dominant performance in its final home game of the season, a 59-41 victory over Notre Dame. In doing so, the Golden Eagles extended their Big East record to 14-4 and ensured the No. 2 seed in the Big East tournament next week. Meanwhile, Jae Crowder made one last-ditch pitch for Big East player of the year: He scored 26 points and grabbed 14 rebounds on 8-of-15 from the field and 10-of-12 from the free throw line. (Crowder missed all five 3-point attempts, a portion of his game that he's really improved this season. When your center can shoot 37 percent from 3-point range, you've got a very difficult team to guard.)

Can Crowder win the award? Because he should. With all due respect to Darius Johnson-Odom and like four or five different Syracuse players, Crowder's mix of offensive efficiency (offensive rating: 122.9; including 61 percent from inside the arc, a low turnover rate, and the aforementioned perimeter solidity), rebounding and defense (he's averaging 2.3 steals and 1.0 blocks per game) make him, to me, the most complete, most important player in the conference.

No. 9 Murray State 54, Tennessee State 52 (Ohio Valley Championship): With six minutes left in the OVC title game, bubble teams across the country were no doubt finding it difficult to establish regulated breathing patterns. Tennessee State was up 48-43, the Racers were struggling to find stops against the dish-and-kick action of the Tigers' 1-4 low sets, and even worse, Isaiah Canaan, Murray State's do-it-all star, was battling through an off night. A two-bid OVC -- and a suddenly shrunken bubble -- were very real possibilities.

But Murray State locked in on defense, stacking great possession after great possession, cutting the Tigers off and preventing easy shots in the paint, and eventually came back to seal the win. The final go-ahead basket was a matter of immediate controversy at the broadcast table; our own Fran Fraschilla was convinced Murray State guard Jewuan Long charged on his game-winning basket. The call was close, no question. But all due respect to Fran, who is way better than this than I am, I disagree that it should have been a charge. A few things here. Long shot the ball before contact was initiated; the defender was still slightly sliding under the move, rather than entirely in front of it; and, most importantly, it was the penultimate play of a one-possession game with the NCAA tournament on the line. The ref needs to swallow his whistle there. And, in general, college coaches and players -- frankly, this applies to the NBA, too -- need to stop coaching defense like this! It's bad for the sport. There are plenty of ways to defend a driving player without fouling or attempt to draw a foul. Choose one. Don't run to a spot and hope the ref gives you the benefit of a 50-50 call, especially when your season is on the line. In short: Play defense.

Maybe that's the pickup player in me coming out; I would have little sympathy even if Long committed a blatant charge. But it wasn't. The no-call couldn't have been more appropriate. And every bubble team in the country can breathe just a little bit easier as a result.

Illinois State 65, No. 14 Wichita State 64: On second thought, bubble teams, you can go back to freaking out now. Why? Because Arch Madness has yielded its first truly mad result of the tournament. Wichita State is the Missouri Valley's best team and No. 1 overall seed, not to mention everyone's pick to be this year's mid-major tournament darling. But that didn't stop the Redbirds -- thanks to Tyler Brown's two clutch free throws and two misses in the last six seconds from WSU's Toure' Murry and Garrett Stutz -- from shocking the Shockers all the same. (Sorry. Couldn't resist.)

Wichita State doesn't have much to worry about in the way of its NCAA tournament seed, of course. But every team along the bubble line, including many of those mentioned below, should be terrified. If Creighton suffers the same fate at any point this weekend, the Missouri Valley will send three teams to the NCAA tournament and steal one bid from a bubble that is destined to shrink even further down the stretch.

Could that third team be Illinois State? Why not? When you beat Wichita State on a neutral court, you deserve the benefit of the doubt.

No. 2 Syracuse 58, No. 18 Louisville 49: This was always an uphill battle for Louisville for one obvious reason: The Cardinals can't score. Louisville can defend. It can rebound. It can get stops when it needs them. But when you have the Big East's 11th-best offense on a per-possession basis, when your effective field-goal percentage ranks outside the nation's top 200 teams, when you turn the ball over on 21.8 percent of your possessions (national rank: No. 241) and your task is to break down Syracuse's smothering 2-3 defense in the Carrier Dome, well, good luck. Syracuse played its typically potent brand of extended defense, forcing Louisville a downright awful 2-of-23 mark from beyond the arc, and that's pretty much your game right there.

It's going to be interesting to see how Rick Pitino tries to adjust this team as he heads toward the NCAA tournament. A few weeks ago, Pitino told ESPN Radio's Scott Van Pelt that he liked to speed the game up and take more risks in the tournament; in his experience, too many coaches slow down in the tournament, fearing disorganization and disarray. This might be his only course of action in March. The Cardinals can't find any offense, but they can press and trap and slap and claw and hope to get easy buckets from turnovers and bad shots in transition. At this point, with this anemic, predictable offense (prediction: Peyton Siva won't see a defense guard him over the top on another ball screen all season), does Pitino have any other choice?

Variously Questionable Bubble Losses

West Virginia 50, South Florida 44: The Mountaineers desperately needed this win. Before this week's victory over DePaul, WVU had lost seven of its previous nine games and seen its once-certain at-large tournament bid -- WVU was once a No. 5 seed in Joe Lunardi's bracket; now it's a No. 12 -- become an entirely precarious matter. This win obviously helps, and not just because it was a win: It also put a ding on one of WVU's potential bubble rivals, South Florida, which has surged into the bubble conversation in recent weeks thanks to a gaudy Big East record and consecutive victories over Cincinnati and Louisville. A win Saturday might have put the Bulls on the right side of the bubble in official fashion. As it is, their profile still looks much better than it used to, but with a 5-10 road record and a 2-8 mark against the RPI top 50, some positive results in the Big East tournament may well be necessary.

UCLA 75, Washington 69: First things first: This was a really nice win for UCLA. It hasn't been the easiest week for the Bruins (that's a candidate for understatement of the year), but with back-to-back good wins (a blowout of Washington State and this plucky victory over the league's standings leader) at least they finished on a positive note. As for Washington, the loss might well have cost the Huskies the outright Pac-12 title. Cal still needs to win get a likely but hardly guaranteed win at Stanford, but either way, the Huskies' argument -- that an outright regular-season conference title in a high-major, albeit really bad, conference should guarantee a spot in the NCAA tournament -- looks even more specious now. Washington, like the rest of this league, has nothing in the way of nonconference results to point to as proof that it is considerably better than the RPI's impression of the Pac-12 as the 10th-best league in the country. It will be fascinating to see how the committee treats UW, and the Pac-12 as a whole, but if I'm the Huskies I'm planning on making a very deep run through the Pac-12 tournament, just to be safe.

Marshall 79, Southern Miss 75: Will a loss at Marshall damage Southern Miss's bubble chances? Doubtful. Marshall is a quality team -- a deep fringe bubble candidate in its own right -- and a four-point loss in the Herd's building isn't, or shouldn't, be the kind of thing that damages a team's bubble chances. What's more, the Golden Eagles still own an RPI within the top 20. In the past 16 years, no team with an RPI of 20 higher has ever missed the tournament. (The closest was 2005-06 Missouri State, which didn't have nearly as strong a profile as this team.) They should be fine.

Maintenance-Minded Bubble Wins

Xavier 72, Charlotte 63: Xavier's final home win of the season wasn't what the Musketeers would have planned heading into the season. To wit, from the AP: "It was a bittersweet day for Xavier, which had grown accustomed to ending its final home game with a spray of confetti and a few celebratory snips of the net. The Musketeers' streak of five straight A-10 regular-season titles was snapped this season." That dream was over weeks ago. Xavier has bigger fish to slice now. The Musketeers are as close to the bubble as you can be (Lunardi's most recent bracket has them as the first team outside the field). A win won't necessarily change that, but a loss would have been disastrous, and Xavier is now in at least slightly better position as it heads into A-10 postseason play.

Northwestern 70, Iowa 66: It was very easy to imagine Northwestern -- which missed marquee wins (Michigan, Ohio State) in soul-crushing fashion twice in the past two weeks -- losing at Iowa. The Hawkeyes beat Wisconsin and Indiana at home in recent weeks, Northwestern would no doubt be feeling the historic tournament pressure, and so on. But this was an impressive victory, or at least as impressive as a victory over Iowa can ever be. This is a little like Xavier's win: It doesn't provide a bubble bump, but it does prevent a potentially disastrous move in the wrong direction at the worst possible time of the season. Is Northwestern in right now? I'd guess yes. But it's hardly a done deal. Like nearly everyone else on the bubble, the only way for Bill Carmody's team to enter Selection Sunday with any measure of confidence is to play well in next week's conference tournament. That much is clear.

Miami 77, Boston College 56: Same situation here: A loss would have been a dream-killer. A win doesn't move the needle. Miami basically has two tourney-worthy qualities on its profile: A win at Duke (huge) and a home win over Florida State (slightly less huge, but still important). But other than that, there's not much there. Can the Hurricanes knock off one of this league's top four teams -- especially Duke or UNC -- on a neutral floor next week? That might be the baseline requirement going forward.

Connecticut 74, Pittsburgh 65: The Huskies have spent much of the past three weeks looking downright determined to overcome their computer numbers (a top-five overall strength of schedule and a top-20 nonconference figure) and somehow, some way, miss the tournament. This week's loss to Providence was an apparent punctuation mark on a pretty much horrible Big East season, or at least horrible relative to this team's elite talent. After this win, though, it looks like UConn will -- just barely -- hold on to a spot above the bubble fray.

The Morning After is our semi-daily recap of last night's best basketball action. Yesterday, my editor worked 18 hours. When he arrived at the office, it was February. When he left, it was March. Sweet, glorious March. Which is a little like my arrival and departure from Welsh-Ryan Arena last night.

Point is? March is here. Thirty days of unbridled glory. Let's make every day count, you guys.

There were 58 games to track last night, and many of them held bubble implications. According to Section 10, Rule 2b, Subsection 3-48(d)(a) of the College Basketball Internet Writer's Manual, this means I am required to make a list of these teams and discuss what each result meant for their respective bubble statuses (statusii?). I don't make the rules, people.

Anyway, let's get to it, because Dana and I have to tape a podcast in, like ... oh, shoot, I really have to get going:

Cincinnati Bearcats (beat No. 7 Marquette 72-61): It is growing increasingly difficult to see just how the committee would justify keeping the Cincinnati Bearcats out of the NCAA tournament. Before last night, the only plausible reason for doing so was nonconference performance: A No. 320-ish-ranked nonconference strength of schedule, a loss to Presbyterian, too many cupcake wins, not enough done in the Big East to compensate. That last part of the argument would have been shaky, but it really is now: Cincinnati has now picked off Marquette, Georgetown (at Georgetown), Louisville and Notre Dame. The first two are top-10 bubble teams. The latter two are safely in the tournament field. I know the committee is all about nonconference SOS these days -- win or lose, they want to see you go out and play somebody, to make November and December interesting -- and Cincinnati didn't do that. But everything they've done since screams: tournament team. (And now that their RPI is creeping upward inside the 70 threshold, it's getting a little bit easier to swallow). Hard to say Mick Cronin's team doesn't belong.

Northwestern Wildcats (lost to No. 11 Ohio State, 75-73, in immensely heartbreaking fashion): Northwestern is not a team that could be criticized for failing to take on top teams. Its league, the Big Ten, is chock full of them. Which is partially the problem: After last night's devastating loss -- if NU wins we're probably not having this discussion -- the Wildcats are 7-10 in the Big Ten, with eight of their 12 losses coming to conference foes ranked higher than 50 in the RPI. In fact, Northwestern is just 1-8 against the RPI top 25. The fact that they've played eight games against the RPI top 25 is, in and of itself, a nice addition to the resume. The fact that Northwestern has managed just one win in that bunch (Michigan State at home) doesn't speak volumes.

But here's the good news: Northwestern doesn't have any bad losses. The worst is probably a one-point home loss to Illinois on Jan. 4, long before Illinois had spiraled into oblivion. A loss at Iowa on Saturday wouldn't be a bad loss in reality, but it would be the sub-100 RPI loss. It's hard to know how the committee will judge this profile. The bottom line: As a disappointed but upbeat John Shurna told ESPN.com Wednesday, the Wildcats just "got to win." A loss, and this conversation might be, unfortunately, over.

Colorado State (toppled No. 17 UNLV, 66-59): Colorado State's chief concern in the past three weeks has been the addition of big wins. The Rams have long had some of the better (and more inflated) RPI numbers in the country, but they lacked few results to which Colorado State could point and say, "See? It's not just that the RPI makes no sense! We're pretty good, too!" They got another one here Wednesday night. In eight days, the Rams have toppled UNLV and New Mexico, part of their unbeaten home record in Mountain West play. A 3-5 record against the RPI top 50 is nothing to scoff at; neither are wins against all three guaranteed tourney locks from your own league. The only problem is CSU hasn't traveled at all well: They're 4-9 away from Ft. Collins this season, including losses at Boise State, Stanford, Wyoming, Northern Iowa, and TCU. Now, many of those losses are understandable. TCU, Wyoming, and UNI are all great at home, and most seasons, it's hard to fault a quasi-mid-major like CSU for losing at Stanford. But the Rams are still just 8-8 vs. the RPI top 100. Not great, not bad. Will the top-20 RPI and top-five SOS push them over the edge?

South Florida (won at No. 18 Louisville, 58-51): Say what you will about the South Florida Bulls. You can't fault them for effort. Or, for that matter, timing. USF's win at Louisville last night was huge: It gave South Florida its best Big East win against a team not named Seton Hall or Cincinnati (not to mention a game that wasn't a one-point win at home) helping to bump this once-questionable RPI up into the top-35 range. USF's schedule ranks No. 19; its nonconference schedule strength is No. 54. The committee says it doesn't look at conference record closely, and in this instance, that makes sense: 12-5 in the Big East looks gaudy, until you dig in and see how imbalanced South Florida's schedule was, and which teams it actually beat. Still, though, you can't fault Stan Heath's team Wednesday night. They needed a huge win at Louisville, and they got it. But with a 5-10 road record and other bubble teams (like Northwestern, for example) with just-as-good-wins and fewer bad losses (USF lost to Old Dominion, Auburn and Penn State in the nonconference), USF's big Wednesday night hardly guarantees them a spot in the field. It puts them in contention, but a home win against West Virginia on Saturday (and a decent showing in the Big East tournament) is still the recommended course of action.

Saint Joseph's (lost at St. Bonaventure, 98-93, in double OT): Brutal loss for the Hawks. Phil Martelli's team has kept creeping into the fringes of the bubble picture before, only to lose a game and fall off again, but after Saturday's 10-point win against Temple, Saint Joe's put itself very much back in the conversation. They're still there, but only barely. Home losses to Richmond and Charlotte are knocks against this team, as is a road loss at American. A 6-9 record against the RPI top 100 reveals a team that has stockpiled 13 of its wins below the top 100 line. Probably a long shot now, but the A-10 tournament could help it get in position.

Dayton (lost at Richmond, 82-71): Richmond is not a horrible team by any means, and it can't be much fun to play on the Spiders' home turf, but even so, this was a rough loss for the Flyers -- who, like Saint Joseph's began the week as a fringe bubble team and look likely to end it there now as well. Archie Miller's team has racked up its fair share of quality wins, but also has a bunch of not-so-quality losses. When your RPI is No. 71 and you're 8-7 in the A-10 -- a good league, to be sure, but still -- you're going to have trouble getting a solid look on Selection Sunday. Much more work to do.

Miami (lost at NC State, 77-73): When you're a bubble team playing another bubble team, particularly one like the Wolfpack, which damaged itself with three straight missed chances (at Duke, vs. Florida State and UNC) and a subsequent overtime loss at Clemson, your best bet is to just go out and win. Miami didn't do that Wednesday night, instead falling to fellow putative bubble team NC State in Raleigh. Bad news for the Hurricanes. Worse news: Even Reggie Johnson's return from an eligibility scare didn't help. The Hurricanes are still in the hunt, but with only Boston College left on the schedule, can a win at Duke and a home win against Florida State really be enough?

Southern Miss (beat Southern Methodist at home, 67-60): This one was all about the avoidance of a bad loss, and USM got the job done. With an 11-4 record in CUSA, a 9-6 record at home, a 3-2 record against the RPI top 50 and very good (probably too good) RPI and SOS numbers, even a loss at Marshall on Saturday probably wouldn't do much to knock Larry Eustachy's team out of the field.

Texas (beat Oklahoma at home, 72-64): A home loss to Oklahoma might not be a home loss to Texas Tech, but it would have been ugly either way. Why? Because Texas's regular-season finale just so happens to come at Kansas on Saturday, where the Jayhawks pretty much never lose, and it's almost impossible to imagine (short of a legendary J'Covan Brown explosion) the young Longhorns leaving Lawrence with a signature win. A win would be great, obviously, but if (when) it doesn't happen, Texas will find itself right in the thick of the bubble chase heading into the Big 12 tournament, where upset opportunities abound. For now, they've stayed very much in the chase.

After several crucial bubble games Wednesday night, here's Joe Lunardi's brief update to Bracketology:

NOTABLE
-- Mississippi State, South Florida and Texas stay in field with wins
-- Northwestern remains “last team in” despite loss
-- Colorado State (in) and Miami (out) trade places on bubble
-- Temple clinches A-10 regular-season title

LAST FOUR IN
South Florida
Texas
Colorado State
Northwestern

FIRST FOUR OUT
Xavier
VCU
NC State
Miami

NEXT FOUR OUT
Oregon
Colorado
Saint Joseph's
Dayton

Also considered: Illinois, New Mexico State, UCF

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Pac-12 (3)
West Coast (3)
Atlantic 10 (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)

One key player was ruled ineligible. At least one key team likely saw its at-large NCAA tournament hopes snuffed. And once again, it looks as if the ACC regular-season title will come down to the final Duke-North Carolina game, next weekend. This week’s attempt at the ACC power rankings:

1. Duke: The Blue Devils -- who already lost to Miami and Florida State at home this season -- had another close call at Cameron Indoor Stadium, needing overtime to beat Virginia Tech. But their win at FSU last week keeps them right where they want to be: in the hunt for No. 1 seeds in the NCAA and ACC tournaments.

2. North Carolina: ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi said last week the Tar Heels would need to win out to make a case for a top seed in the NCAA tournament. That push continues this week with their home finale against Maryland and a trip to Duke. When will point guard Kendall Marshall set the school record for assists in a season? Stay tuned.

3. Florida State: It was a rough week for the Seminoles. First they lost at home to Duke -- and likely lost their chance at the regular-season ACC title. Then they fell at Miami on Sunday. They’ll try to stop their slide at Virginia next.

4. Virginia: Saturday’s loss to the Tar Heels stung -- not just because of the physical game, myriad of whistles against the Cavs’ big guys or forward Mike Scott's ACC season-low six points. But also because Virginia has now lost three of its last five games.

5. Miami: The Hurricanes beat Florida State on Sunday without center Reggie Johnson, who was declared ineligible by the school after an investigation revealed members of his family took impermissible travel benefits from the former coaching staff. The victory enhanced the Hurricanes' NCAA résumé, but they’re going to need Johnson back to make a stronger push (and case).

6. Clemson: Andre Young's game-winning 3-pointer in overtime against NC State means the Tigers are now 2-8 in games decided by five or fewer points this season. They have now won four out of five games and pushed themselves to .500 in league play. But that still hasn’t made much of a dent in their triple-digit RPI.

7. NC State: Saturday’s overtime loss at Clemson was just the latest defeat to rip at the Wolfpack’s NCAA tournament hopes. An ACC tournament title would give them an automatic bid, but that now is probably the only way they get there after four straight defeats (Duke, Florida State, UNC and Clemson).

8. Maryland: After beating Miami at home last week, the Terps went on the road against a struggling Georgia Tech team and promptly lost. Coach Mark Turgeon summed up his team’s performance at Georgia Tech this way: “I thought we were growing up, but today showed we haven’t grown up all the way,” he said, according to The Washington Post. “We weren’t ready to play.”

9. Virginia Tech: “One or two more rolls went different this year, we’d be a whole different team,” senior guard Dorenzo Hudson told The Washington Post on Saturday after the Hokies lost another close one -- this time at Duke. Enough said.

10. Wake Forest: After Duke comes to town on Tuesday, the Deacs will finish the regular season with a winnable game in Atlanta. After prevailing in two of their last three games, they’d like to continue on a high note.

11. Georgia Tech: After managing only 37 points in a loss to Clemson, the Yellow Jackets beat Maryland by a bucket. “We're real happy,’’ guard Mfon Udofia said, according to The Associated Press. “I always tell the guys, 'Something's going to shake.'"

12. Boston College: The Eagles have now lost 10 of 11 games. The positive: All of those freshmen will be sophomores next season.

Follow Robbi Pickeral on Twitter at @bylinerp.

1. The Illini finally got that they have something to play for: themselves. In their win over Iowa Sunday, Illinois actually looked like a team that still cared about playing and fighting for an NCAA tournament berth. Meyers Leonard and Brandon Paul responded to Bruce Weber and the staff. The Illini could still make the bid process interesting if they can beat Michigan and win at Wisconsin this week.

2. Colorado coach Tad Boyle should be the Pac-12 coach of the year. The Buffaloes, who lost their best two players off last season’s team, won their 11th game in the conference with a 13-point win over Cal. The Buffaloes have no business finishing with a bye as a top-four seed in the Pac-12 tournament, yet can do so with a win at Oregon Thursday. If the Buffaloes didn’t get worked by Stanford by 24 at home (odd) then taking a Pac-12 title away from co-favorite Washington could have been a possibility.

3. Miami took one step closer to a tournament bid by beating Florida State Sunday. But Miami will have to keep winning if Reggie Johnson isn’t cleared by the NCAA. The selection committee has to judge the 'Canes without him from this point forward. If he returns then the overall body of work will be back in play. But if he doesn’t and Miami were to lose at NC State Wednesday (Boston College is next to close the season) then it will be a tough call.

Durand Scott scored 17 points and Miami beat No. 16 Florida State 78-62 on Sunday night.

Editor’s note: Jay Bilas breaks down Missouri-Kansas in today’s Weekend Watch. Andy Katz offers a dozen more games to keep an eye on this weekend.

Friday

Marquette at West Virginia (9 ET, ESPN): West Virginia has to win this game, right? The Mountaineers have lost six of their past eight games. The only wins were over lower-level teams (Providence and Pitt) on the road. Marquette has been on a tear of late and may have the Big East Player of the Year in Jae Crowder or Darius Johnson-Odom.

Saturday

Vanderbilt at Kentucky (noon ET, CBS): Kentucky has three games left to finish off an undefeated SEC regular season. No offense to Georgia, but the Cats should take care of the Bulldogs. If UK takes out Vandy, the only obstacle left is a game at Florida to end the regular season. If Kentucky can accomplish an unblemished mark, it would go down as one of the most impressive regular seasons in coach John Calipari’s career.

Iowa State at Kansas State (1:30 ET, ESPN3): Wins at Baylor and Missouri have changed the complexion of Kansas State’s season. The Wildcats have finally finished games by playing smart in the final possessions. Iowa State has a tough slate to finish the season with games at K-State and Missouri and then hosting Baylor. Not an easy road for a team that wants to wrap up an at-large bid.

North Carolina at Virginia (4 ET, ESPN): UVa has had injury issues and hasn’t been able to find consistency against the league’s elite (Duke and North Carolina). But the Cavs have a shot to re-establish themselves. This could turn into an ACC Player of the Year-type game as Tyler Zeller of the Tar Heels matches up with Mike Scott of the Cavs. UVa must ensure that it controls the tempo to have a chance.

Mississippi State at Alabama (6 ET, ESPN): Mississippi State has stumbled down the stretch and has no momentum going into the SEC tournament. The Bulldogs have lost to the bottom of the SEC and now to Kentucky at the top. Meanwhile, Alabama has done a tremendous job, despite player suspensions, to be in the hunt for an NCAA tournament berth. The win at Arkansas was one of the more impressive for the Tide this season.

George Mason at VCU (6 ET, ESPN2): George Mason was going to be in position to possibly catch Drexel and win the conference. But an overtime loss at Northeastern has pushed the Patriots into a second-place tie with VCU. The winner will get the No. 2 seed in the CAA tournament and potentially set up for a final matchup against Drexel.

Temple at Saint Joseph’s (7 ET, ESPNU): Temple has emerged as the class of the A-10. St. Joe’s had some fleeting hopes of getting a bid, but the Hawks lost at home to Richmond and scored only 49 points in the process. This is now a must-win for them. This is a huge rivalry game but the toughness of the Owls should prevail.

Penn at Harvard (7 ET, ESPN3): If Harvard gets by Princeton on Friday night, a win against Penn could give the Crimson a share of the Ivy League title and a chance to clinch it outright the following Friday at Columbia. Harvard is trying to get to the NCAAs for the first time since 1946.

Syracuse at Connecticut (9 ET, ESPN): The Huskies have new life after Shabazz Napier’s 3-point heave went in to beat Villanova on Monday night. The Orange have been as good, if not better, on the road than at home -- other than at Notre Dame. Syracuse should dominate the bench scoring. The Huskies have a chance if Andre Drummond and Alex Oriakhi can win the post, and Napier and Ryan Boatright can get into the zone with floaters to score. UConn is in desperate mode to get this win.

Sunday

Wisconsin at Ohio State (4 ET, CBS): The Badgers lost at Iowa on Thursday night and now have to go to Ohio State? Yikes. Iowa let Wisconsin back in the game, but then the Badgers couldn’t finish and lost by one. OSU, save the game against Michigan State, has been as dominant at home as any team in the country. The Badgers have to find a way to score and avoid the droughts that can decimate their chances of pulling off an upset like this one.

California at Colorado (5:30 ET, FSN): Colorado had a chance to make some noise down the stretch in the Pac-12, but losing at home to Stanford took some of the energy out of this game. The Buffaloes had overachieved to that point. Cal needs to get a sweep of the mountain area to win the Pac-12 regular-season title, assuming Washington doesn’t stumble.

Florida State at Miami (6 ET, ESPNU): The Seminoles lost their shot to win the ACC regular-season title by dropping a home game to Duke. Miami desperately needs this game to prove to the selection committee that it is tourney-worthy. This game will have ACC tournament seeding implications as well.

The Morning After is our semi-daily recap of last night's best basketball action. It highly recommends John Gasaway's treatise on the historical origins and context of the Ratings Percentage Index. Essential reading.

I have a bad memory. It's one of the frustrating things about being my friend or girlfriend or close relative -- if you tell me something, I'll do my best, but there's a decent chance that if I don't write it down, I'll forget all about it.

So, yeah, there could have been a better night along the bubble in college hoops in the past, say, five years. There may have been a night with more bubble teams striving for late-season marquee wins or trying to avoid losses. There may have been a night with crazier results, more up and downs in a five-hour span. But if there was, well, I sure can't remember it. Can you?

Today's Morning After is really more like a mini-Bubble Watch, less a look at how Tuesday night's games unfolded and more at what those results mean for the various bubble teams therein. Let's begin, shall we?

The Marquee Wins

Seton Hall 73, No. 8 Georgetown 55: Bubble wins don't get much bigger than this. Seton Hall began the night smack dab on the cusp of the tournament, one of Joe Lunardi's last four in. Its résumé was the picture of mediocrity. Like so many of the teams around it on the S-Curve, it needed a big win, and with only Rutgers and DePaul left on the remaining schedule, Georgetown at home was this team's last big chance (at least before the Big East tournament) to distinguish itself from the batch of equally mediocre profiles on the bubble. Now, provided the Pirates don't do something crazy (like, say, losing to DePaul and Rutgers), they're almost certainly going to get in the tournament. It's really that simple.

Colorado State 71, No. 21 New Mexico 63: As big as Seton Hall's win was, this one may have been bigger. After all, the Pirates may have made the tournament even without the Georgetown win; it was hardly a sure thing, of course, but two more wins and a decent Big East tournament performance probably would have allowed them to sneak in, if only barely. But Colorado State? Colorado State couldn't merely maintain. It needed to do something drastic. Beating the conference leader, a squad that just dump-trucked UNLV days after winning at San Diego State, most certainly qualifies. Throughout the past two months, the Rams have owned the most inexplicably good computer numbers in the country. Much of that had to do with the true road game at Duke early in the season, not to mention the second-hand inflation accrued from brushing up against Southern Miss in the nonconference. Either way, it was easy to look at CSU's numbers and be dumbfounded. The best win was over San Diego State. Most of the losses weren't all that bad, but there were a lot of them (nine to be exact). Examining any portion of this team's résumé -- the 4-8 road/neutral record, the 1-4 mark against the RPI top 50, the second-best win coming against, say, Colorado? -- was mostly an exercise in wonder: How on Earth does this team have a top-30 RPI?

That question is still valid, but now Colorado State has another big win on its platter, one that should make those numbers feel more real. And those numbers are important, too. When the committee is flashing teams' nitty gritty sheets across its projection screen on Selection Sunday, it'll be looking at plenty of ugly RPI numbers. The Rams will look much less like a silly RPI outlier now.

Kansas State 78, No. 3 Missouri 68: First of all, what a win for the Wildcats. They punched Missouri in the mouth, received the Tigers' more-than-capable counter, absorbed it, and held on for the win in the end. Just impressive all the way around. What does it mean for the bubble? Less than either of the two wins above it. After K-State's win at Baylor on Saturday, it was difficult to imagine Frank Martin's team missing the tournament. This was already a solid, if unspectacular résumé, but on this bubble, "solid-slash-unspectacular" is probably good enough. But with this win, we might as well lock up Kansas State's bid. Few teams in the country will boast two marquee road wins like this team got this week. Now that's how you get in the tournament.

The Bad (And Occasionally Sad) Losses

No. 13 Michigan 67, Northwestern 55: How brutal must it be to be a Northwestern fan? I mean, can you even imagine? (Actually, Cubs fans, never mind. Don't answer that.) The Wildcats needed this win. Oh, did they need it. It wasn't unfair to call this the biggest game in recent program history, the one that, if won, could have given the school its first-ever NCAA tournament berth. And so what does Northwestern do? Take Michigan to overtime ... just before collapsing in the extra period and losing by 12. "Ouch" doesn't even begin to describe it. The Wildcats are right on the bubble. They have one big win (Michigan State) to their name, a great strength-of-schedule number (10) and a solid RPI figure. They also now have a 2-7 record against the RPI top 50 and a 5-11 record against the top 100. Combine that with the 6-9 Big Ten record and 5-7 road/neutral mark, and it's no wonder this team's bid is so shaky. The good news? Northwestern still has one big marquee chance left: Next Wednesday, Ohio State comes to town. But NU may have to win that one -- and, oh yeah, avoid treacherous bubble-bursting losses at Penn State and Iowa -- to get over the hump. But make no mistake: This game was the best chance Northwestern had, and it just barely missed it. Brutal. Just brutal.

UMass 80, Xavier 73: XU got a big win Saturday, topping rival Dayton in overtime, a game that gave it a much better chance of avoiding bubble trouble in the final weeks of the season. Now? Losing to UMass is hardly a crime -- that's a solid Minutemen team, one that's not completely out of the bubble picture -- but the last thing Xavier needs now is blasé losses to decent-but-not-great A-10 foes. Fortunately for Chris Mack's team, that win at Vanderbilt is still on the ledger. Plus, the computer numbers are still OK. But the Musketeers have shown plenty of collapse potential pretty much all season, and they may have to get a really difficult win at Saint Louis next week to feel safe about their chances.

No. 1 Kentucky 73, Mississippi State 64: How good is this Kentucky team? Mississippi State was great for much of Tuesday night's loss, but when UK turns it up that extra half-notch -- when the defense starts locking down and the Wildcats start rolling on offense -- they're just something to see. It's incredible. In any case, losing to UK is hardly going to push Mississippi State off the bubble. I think we can all forgive it for getting a bunch of shots blocked by Anthony Davis, because, well, that happens to everybody. But this was a major missed opportunity. A win would have sealed MSU's deal. Instead, this was the Bulldogs' fourth loss in a row (the other three: home to Georgia, at LSU, at Auburn), a streak that has made what once seemed like a surefire bid suddenly questionable -- the nonconference SOS number is particularly bad -- and trending in the wrong direction each day. A loss at Alabama Saturday, and all of a sudden, we might be talking about this team missing the tournament. Yikes.

No. 7 North Carolina 86, NC State 74: When NC State led Duke by 20 points last week, the Wolfpack's once-long-shot bid seemed very, very real. A week later, and NC State is right back where it started. The win at Duke would have been marquee. A win against Florida State Saturday would have qualified. And Tuesday night's home game versus North Carolina -- which featured a clinical 22-point, 13-rebound, zero-turnover performance from UNC point guard Kendall Marshall -- was another big marquee chance and, ultimately, another loss. Without a win in any of these three, NC State's next best chance comes at home versus Miami, a fellow bubble team but hardly a big-time opponent. If the Pack don't survive at Clemson and at Virginia Tech, it won't matter anyway. That Duke meltdown may haunt this team forever.

Maryland 75, Miami 70: Speaking of Miami, the Hurricanes entered Tuesday night as one of Joe Lunardi's last four teams in the field. By the time this game was over, they were one of the first four out. A loss on the road to Maryland isn't devastating, but other than a win at Duke -- and a great win it is -- this team's profile just doesn't have a whole lot going on. Florida State comes to town Sunday, and with a game at NC State to follow (plus a non-needle-mover against Boston College to close out the season), that's basically a must-win.

No. 9 Ohio State 83, Illinois 67: Being on the wrong side of a rout in Columbus is nothing to be ashamed about. In a different world, or a different season even, Illinois could have taken its lumps and moved on. But in 2012, if Illinois' at-large chances weren't dead already -- and Saturday's 23-point loss at Nebraska may have done the trick anyway -- they are now. Tuesday night's defeat was the Illini's ninth in 10 games. The ongoing Bruce Weber saga (short version: dude's getting canned) lords over this team, and at this point, unless the Illini go crazy in the Big Ten tournament, the NCAA will be eager to avoid the hot mess this once-promising team has become. Sad stuff, really. Not as sad as Northwestern, of course. But sad.