ESPN Men's Basketball

1. The Big East and SEC are expected to finalize the pairings for their challenge sometime in the next two weeks. Any speculation (as I did last week) on the pairings is now moot as the conferences try to figure out arena openings and home/road setup. The Big East coaches were told that the event will happen. Politicking has begun for some. Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin wants a marquee home game. The ACC-Big Ten Challenge has matched teams that are supposed to finish in similar positions; this event hasn’t been handled like that overall. Cincinnati played Georgia last season despite the Bearcats being an upper-division Big East team and Georgia picked for the lower level of the SEC. “I don’t know why we wouldn’t rank our teams, too," Cronin said. “I’m asking the league to get us a like opponent. If we’re being picked high then we want the same thing (from the SEC)."

2. Cronin is attempting to upgrade his schedule and has secured a top-25 home-and-home series, which isn’t easy in this era of schools looking for more neutral-site non-conference games. Cronin and New Mexico coach Steve Alford said they will play a home-and-home series next season, to start in Cincinnati. The Bearcats will visit the Pit the following season.

3. Murray State coach Steve Prohm said he has had discussions with Virginia Commonwealth about a home-and-home series but nothing is finalized. The Rams are searching for multiple games after losing Richmond and George Washington from the schedule now that they’re all in the Atlantic 10. VCU also needs two more games, since the A-10 plays 16 games and the CAA played 18. VCU coach Shaka Smart said many possibilities remain, but one certainty is that the Rams will continue the rivalry with Old Dominion, which will be off to Conference USA in 2013. Smart said the home-and-home series will start at ODU in 2012-13.

Well, it's that time of year again here. The last double-digit seeds in the NCAA tournament were knocked out two rounds ago. We've stretched our Giant Killers model to new heights of speculation, and drawn as many lessons as we can from the results. There's not a whole lot left to do except to click 'Save As' on our spreadsheets for the last time.

And we'd also like to thank you for all your feedback. We are seriously proud of the loyalty of our readers to Giant Killers, and of the thoughtfulness of the ideas you have sent to us, both in the comments to our posts and via the GK Mailbag. And we will be incorporating your suggestions over the coming months, as we make what will almost certainly be the biggest changes yet to our Giant Killers statistical model.

Of course, we also need to add the final cherry to this edition of the GK sundae: the third annual All-Giant Killers Team. As you might remember, last year we awarded naming rights to this squad to honor two members of the 2004 and 2005 UAB Blazers, the first and, and until VCU this year, only Killers to slay Giants in back-to-back tournaments. In 2004, the Blazers, a No. 9 seed, knocked off Kentucky, a No. 1, and then in 2005 they beat LSU in an 11-6 matchup.

Over those two seasons, the Blazers stole the ball on nearly 16 percent of opponent possessions, while hardly ever turning the ball over. If you want an example of how they played, check out this video of Ronell Taylor swiping a Kentucky pass and passing it, backward, two-handed and over his head, to his twin brother Donell. We like to think that's how we throw stats around here at GK Central.

To see the list on insider, click here.

PORTLAND -- Louisville went one-and-done the past two years in the NCAA tournament, and coach Rick Pitino seemed just a bit defensive about it when he met with reporters on Wednesday. Ah, but it became clear after his Cardinals slipped past New Mexico 59-56 and earned a berth in the program's 18th Sweet 16 that he was just striking a pose.

A defensive pose, just like his team struck in victories over Davidson and then the Lobos.

New Mexico shot just 39.7 percent from the field, was 5-of-23 from 3-point range and surrendered 13 turnovers, as Louisville prevailed in a battle of two tough defenses. Louisville shot 45.8 percent from the field, including 7-of-15 from 3-point range.

"We played great defense tonight," Pitino said.

But the story of the game was a pair of second-half runs. The Cardinals jumped ahead 44-29 with an 18-4 run to start the second half, and the game looked like it might become a blowout. But the Lobos countered with a 17-5 run that closed the gap to 49-46 with 6:30 remaining.

That's when things got interesting. Lobos forward Drew Gordon tipped in a rebound to cut the margin to 55-53 with 1:10 left, but the Cardinals answered with a drive and dish from Peyton Siva that ended with a Gorgui Dieng dunk with 35 seconds remaining. (Said Pitino, "That was a great pass."). Siva, who surged late after being quiet most of the game, hit two clutch free throws, which made a 3-pointer from Gordon with 3 seconds left mostly academic.

Louisville, which improved to 29-9, will play the winner of Sunday's Michigan State-Saint Louis in the Sweet 16 in Phoenix.

Russ Smith led the Cardinals with 17 points. He connected on all three of his 3-point attempts, and also grabbed three of the Cardinals' nine steals.

"He always comes up big for us," Pitino said. "When we struggle for points, he's always there."

For New Mexico, the late run surely will engender some wonder at why the second half started so slowly, as a 1-point deficit became 15 points.

"We were just out of rhythm, out of sync offensively, I thought," Lobos coach Steve Alford said. "And then to start the second half, I think they really came at us and got some easy baskets, which we hadn't given up in the first half."

Gordon had 4 points and 5 rebounds at halftime -- and scared New Mexico fans when he fell to the floor with 4:47 before halftime with an apparent knee injury. He finished with 21 points and 14 rebounds, both game highs.

Pitino was asked in the postgame media session why he looked so relieved, and if it was due to the last two tournament flame-outs. Pitino countered by noting that, in the two years before those flameouts, the Cardinals went to consecutive Elite Eights.

Why was he so giddy then?

"I'm about as happy as I've ever been in this game right now because these guys truly are like my children," he said.

PORTLAND, Ore. -- A quick look at Louisville's 59-56 win over New Mexico in a round-of-32 NCAA tournament game in the Rose Garden.

Overview: The frantic second half featured two huge runs against two stingy defenses, but Louisville was able to hold on at the end due to some clutch play from guards Peyton Siva and Russ Smith. The Cardinals jumped to a 44-29 lead with an 18-4 run to start the second half. Immediately thereafter, the Lobos countered with their own 17-5 run, which closed the gap to 49-46 with 6:30 remaining. Game on. But Siva made a driving layup and got a huge assist on a dunk from Gorgui Dieng to stop the bleeding. He and Smith each hit a pair of free throws down the stretch, which kept New Mexico at bay.

Turning point: The turning point, really, was New Mexico fighting back, because it looked like it was going to be a blowout midway through the second half. But the fact that the Lobos fell just three points short makes it fair to ask why they came out of the halftime locker room so flat, yielding a 15-point deficit before they fought back.

Key player: Russ Smith scored a team-high 17 points, including hitting all three of his 3-pointers. He also had three steals.

Key stat: While New Mexico ended up hitting an awful five of 23 3-point attempts, the worst of it was the Lobos connecting on just two of their first 17. They shot 39.7 percent from the field -- versus 45.8 percent from Louisville -- which is a big reason a 34-23 rebounding advantage didn't matter.

Miscellaneous: Louisville is headed to its 18th Sweet 16. ... The Cardinals connected on seven of 15 3-point attempts (46.7 percent). ... New Mexico forward Drew Gordon had four points and five rebounds at halftime. He finished with a game-high 21 points and a game-high 14 rebounds. ... Siva, who averaged 14.4 points in five previous postseason games, had no points and just two assists at halftime, but he scored six points and dished three assists in the second half. ... New Mexico shot only eight free throws. Louisville shot 12.

What’s next: Louisville will play the winner of Michigan State's Sunday game with Saint Louis in the Sweet 16.

Have you caught your breath yet? Me neither. But the glorious first weekend of the NCAA tournament rolls on undaunted, and so must we. Thirty-two teams remain. By the end of tomorrow, there can be only 16.

You know the math. And since you know the players and the teams and coaches, and there's more on the line today than even Thursday, let's avoid exclusions and run through each specific game quickly.

East Region

No. 1 Syracuse vs. No. 8 Kansas State, 12:15, p.m. ET, CBS: Syracuse barely survived UNC Asheville on Thursday, and it required at least some small measure of fortuitous officiating to do so. So perhaps it's natural to see Jim Boeheim's team as shaky, even vulnerable, and the matchup won't do much to quell such fears. The Orange are a famously poor defensive rebounding team, ranking No. 341 in the country in opponents' offensive rebounding percentage this season, while Kansas State, with Jamar Samuels, Thomas Gipson and Jordan Henriquez, just so happen to be one of the 10-best offensive rebounding teams in the country. K-State isn't pretty, but it defends and rebounds.

Will that be enough? Boeheim's team is masterful at creating turnovers and scoring easy points in transition, and the Wildcats turn the ball over on a whopping 21.2 percent of their possessions, No. 237 in the country. If K-State coughs it up, there won't be enough wayward rebounds to collect in the first place, and Syracuse — warts and all — will advance.

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Gonzaga, 2:45 p.m. ET, CBS: Make shots, get to the line, make free throws. That is, in incredibly simplified form, what Gonzaga will have to do against Ohio State to win this game. It doesn't look altogether likely: OSU guard Aaron Craft is the nation's best perimeter defender, and he could take star Zags freshman point Kevin Pangos out of the game entirely. That will leave Elias Harris, Robert Sacre and Sam Dower to do work in the middle. Few teams can match up with that forward rotation; Ohio State is most definitely one of them. We saw some clunkers from this OSU offense down the stretch, but its defense never wavered. If the Buckeyes are locked in on both ends of the floor, well, look out.

No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt, 6:10 p.m. ET, TNT: Two great coaches. Two intelligent, veteran-led teams. Two very good, if not great, programs yet to achieve (to varying degrees, of course) ultimate NCAA tournament glory. This is a fantastic Round of 32 game, one of the best in the bracket, and one that should come down to (a) how difficult Wisconsin can make it for guard John Jenkins and the rest of the Commodores to knock down outside shots, and (b) whether Vandy forward Festus Ezeli can extend his defense away from the basket far enough to check Jared Berggren, a solid outside shooter, without losing sight of Jordan Taylor and the rest of the Badgers' attack. Both of these teams probably deserve a spot in the Sweet 16. Only one will get it. Shame, that, but it'll be awfully fun time watching them duke it out all the same.

West Region

No. 3 Marquette vs. No. 6 Murray State, 5:15 p.m. ET, CBS: Before Norfolk State and Lehigh and any other mid-major darling-come-lately, the Murray State Racers and their near-undefeated regular-season run captured the college hoops world's collective consciousness. Is that run near its end? It would appear so: Few teams are as well equipped to handle star Murray guard Isaiah Canaan, and Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder look like too much for the Racers to handle. But hey: Crazier things have happened. (Understatement of the year? Understatement of the year.)

No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 5 New Mexico, 8:40 p.m. ET, TBS: Another fascinating No.4-No.5 matchup here, and another one that's difficult to predict. Here's one thing we do know: Both teams really defend. On a per-possession basis, the Cardinals' defense ranks in the top five nationally, while New Mexico's ranks in the top 15, and both teams are adept at stopping opponents in the half court specifically. New Mexico forward Drew Gordon may dictate whether the Lobos — who will struggle to find quality looks against Rick Pitino's defense — can collect enough second-chance opportunities to keep pace. And, as usual, Louisville guard Peyton Siva will play a major role. Should be a good one.

South Region

No. 12 VCU vs. No. 4 Indiana, 7:10 p.m. ET, TBS: VCU will bring the "HAVOC." How does Indiana react? Can point guard Jordan Hulls and off-guards Will Sheehey and Victor Oladipo protect possessions and make good decisions once they cross half court? Can Indiana get Cody Zeller touches, and can Zeller finish those touches — or pass out of VCU's shapeshifting double-teams — without getting bogged down in the Rams' scrapping, digging half-court defense? The Hoosiers will have to do all this and more to get past the best turnover-forcing team in the country, one that pressures relentlessly and attacks opposing defenses with similar gusto. Havoc, indeed.

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 11 Colorado, 7:40 p.m. ET, TNT: Old-school Big 12 matchup ahoy! The Bears haven't seen this edition of the Buffaloes this season, but they may remember Andre Roberson — CU's hyper-active rebounding big man, who ranks second in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage — from Colorado's last season in the old conference. The Bears will have to contain Roberson on the glass, but if they do, their offensive weapons, from Pierre Jackson to Perry Jones III to Quincy Miller to Quincy Acy and on down the line, should be too much for the Buffaloes to handle.

No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 8 Iowa State, 7:45 p.m. ET, CBS: Apparently, everybody "wanted" to see the talented Connecticut Huskies take on the Kentucky juggernaut, but not me. For one, I like to watch teams that don't constantly appear apathetic. For another, I'm fascinated by Royce White, the most versatile big man in the country. Few players mix size and skill like White, and his unique talents — and the sharpshooting of the Cyclones' perimeter — have reignited a once-dormant, now-frenzied fan base in central Iowa. Unfortunately for those fans, though, the Cyclones couldn't ask for a worse matchup for White. The Wildcats are the Wildcats; they're the most talented team in the country, with Anthony Davis, the nation's most impactful defender, and a guy who mixes size and athleticism in once-in-a-generation style. It would be a shock to see White and Co. get past this Kentucky team.

PORTLAND, Ore. -- Previewing the Round of 32 games at the Rose Garden:

No. 4 seed Indiana (26-8) vs. No. 12 VCU (29-6), 7:10 p.m. ET

VCU coach Shaka Smart enjoys inspiring, insightful quotes, and he's leaning on one that is relevant to his 2011-12 team as it prepares to face Indiana in the South Region with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line: "Things won are done; joy's soul lies in the doing."

It's from Shakespeare's "Troilus and Cressida," but it could just as easily be from a book on the NCAA tournament, one written as a self-help tome for a select group of so-called mid-majors: "Cinderella: The Year After (and After and After)."

You might have heard this: Smart and the Rams burst onto the scene last year with a surprising Final Four run. Yes, they agree, it was really neat. Yes, they'll tell you, the banners hanging in their home gym still give them goose bumps. But things won are done and losing's soul lies in living in the past.

Said Smart, "We've used that [quote] at times because everyone wants to talk about last year's Final Four run, but that's done, that's over. It's all about now."

The Rams' showdown with Indiana is interesting for a variety of reasons. For one, the Hoosiers are a super-elite program that's been in the dumps of late but is eager to climb back to the top of hoops' Mt. Olympus. VCU is a newbie riding high under Smart's pitch-perfect leadership.

VCU, which has won 18 of 19, is all about its full-court-pressing "Havoc" defense. Indiana is a high-scoring team that isn't afraid to run. The Hoosiers also are great from behind the 3-point line, hitting on 43.6 percent of their attempts, which ranks second in the nation. In their first game here against New Mexico State, they put on an offensive exhibition, hitting 59 percent of their shots, including 7 of 13 from 3-point range. They scored inside and outside, they ran the break, found open looks in the halfcourt and seven players contributed to 15 total assists.

The question on Saturday is whether they can break the Rams' press and again get good looks at the basket. The key, Hoosiers coach Tom Crean said, is to not let the Rams dictate where the ball goes.

"You've got to do a great job of catching the ball where you want to catch it," he said. "If you catch it where they want you to catch it, it's going to be a problem."

VCU has good size, and 7-footer D.J. Haley did an outstanding job Thursday of containing Wichita State big man and leading scorer Garrett Stutz. But Indiana center Cody Zeller offers a different challenge: He's 6-11 and moves like a 3.

"He's as good as any big kid that we've played in the three years I've been at VCU," Smart said of the freshman. "You talk about him running the floor. We definitely can't give him easy baskets in transition. I would guess that one of the things that they'll try to do is get the ball in quickly after makes or, certainly on misses, get the ball outlet quickly and then look for Zeller running to the rim. If you can get the ball in extremely quickly before the press is set up, then that's one way to beat pressure defensive teams."

Against Wichita State, VCU showed it could score out of a half-court offense, which it has struggled to do this season, and make big shots when the screws tighten. And, while Indiana is the pedigreed program, it's the Rams who have been here before.

Of course, four starters are gone from the 2011 VCU team, and Indiana couldn't have looked more poised while it pounded the Aggies. The past, recent and dusty, probably won't dictate much Saturday.

Said VCU senior forward Bradford Burgess when asked to compare last year's team to this year's team, "Really, the only similarity is the name on the jersey."

No. 4 Louisville (27-9) vs. No. 5 New Mexico (28-6), 9:40 p.m. ET

Louisville has inside information on New Mexico. Cardinals assistant coach Wyking Jones was an assistant the previous two seasons for the Lobos. He was particularly close to the Lobos' two best players, forward Drew Gordon and guard Kendall Williams.

It might not matter a whit. It could, in fact, become more of a distraction, something New Mexico coach Steve Alford can anticipate and counter. But the Louisville players and coach Rick Pitino didn't hide the fact they see it as an advantage against the Lobos for Saturday's matchup.

"Well, he can't hurt, obviously, because he recruited some of their players, knows the guys, knows their personalities, when they could get down or when they could be up," Pitino said. "So we're going to have a good feel for them in abbreviated [way]. He gives us things, a feel that we wouldn't normally get."

Said guard Russ Smith, "It definitely helps because he knows their personnel very well. As far as the seniors and juniors on the team, he knows some of the calls that might be made. So Coach Jones definitely is helping us a lot, especially in practice and in film the past day."

The key in this one, however, is shooting. I know: Genius. But this game pits two of the nation's top-five field goal percentage defenses, with both hovering around 38 percent. Both defenses won the battle in their second-round victories. The Cardinals shut down a high-scoring Davidson attack, miring a team that likes to run in a half-court game, while Williams played a major role in shutting down Long Beach State point guard Casper Ware, the Big West Player of the Year, who shot 5 of 19 from the field and was 2-of-9 from 3-point range.

Williams seems most likely to take on surging Louisville point guard Peyton Siva. While Siva isn't the Cardinals' leading scorer, he won Most Outstanding Player as he and his teammates took a surprising roll through the Big East tournament. He scored 17 points -- one below his season's high -- in the win over Davidson, and has averaged 14.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 2.6 steals in five postseason games.

Not surprisingly, the uptick in Siva's play has coincided with the uptick in the Cardinals' fortunes. Pitino credited the change to Siva's late-season ability to vary the speed of his play, which came out of a meeting between the two.

Said Pitino, recalling the meeting, "'Peyton, I'm going to tell you why you're struggling, because you just play at one pace, extremely fast. And because of that, you have a lot of turnovers, because you don't know how to probe and change your pace and create things because you play at one speed.'

"And we showed him a tape of Steve Nash and how Steve always probes and gets in the lane and keeps his dribble and comes back and does something else. And that more than anything else really changed his mindset of learning how to change speeds. And he's been brilliant in the Big East tournament. Brilliant yesterday with doing that. And for someone to make that abrupt change like that and really just visualize himself doing that speaks about his basketball IQ in a big way."

So, is the Siva-Williams matchup going to happen? We'll, er, Siva. Alford wouldn't commit.

"Kendall Williams always gets the top assignment," he said. "If he's the top assignment, Kendall will get that assignment."

While there are some similarities between the teams, there also are plenty of differences. For one, New Mexico doesn't see a lot of full-court press in the Mountain West Conference. And Louisville will be much happier running and creating a frantic pace.

The biggest is this: New Mexico has never reached the Sweet 16. Louisville has been there 17 times, fifth-most in the nation.

But neither history nor Wyking Jones is likely to be the difference in this one. It's probably going to be about getting good looks against defenses that don't give many of them. And converting those looks.

PORTLAND -- The NCAA tournament is a showcase for college basketball stars to shine. But it's also often about them faltering at the worst moments. And lesser-known members of a team's constellation suddenly twinkling in the sport's firmament.

In the entertaining bit of theater that was New Mexico's impressive 75-68 win over a game and perhaps underseeded Long Beach State squad, the Lobos prevailed for a variety of reasons. But chief among them was their star, center Drew Gordon, playing smart and within himself and his No. 2, guard Kendall Williams, showing himself not unwilling to step to the fore.

Meanwhile, the 49ers will be wondering "what if" after point guard Casper Ware, the Big West Player of the Year, conference tournament MVP and Wooden Award nominee, flopped on a big stage. Ware scored 17 points to lead his team, but he also hit only 5 of 19 shots from the field, including 2 of 9 from 3-point range.

"We're here because of Casper Ware," Long Beach State coach Dan Monson said. "So when we leave here, it's going to be because of him. He's carried us."

Gordon posted his 16th double-double of the season, scoring a team-high 18 points and grabbing a team-high 13 rebounds. But it was Williams, the Lobos' second-leading scorer, who made the biggest plays in the second half, when he scored 14 of his 16 points. He also was the Lobo who seemed to most trouble Ware, always seeming to make himself an inconvenience between Ware and the basket.

"[Williams has] got something that you just can't teach -- he's got that extra gear," New Mexico coach Steve Alford said. "He's the fastest player I've ever coached. He's very, very elusive. He can go right and left. He can go north and south. He's just got speeds to him that he's hard to catch up to."

The game turned just as the 49ers looked to be surging. New Mexico had built an 8-point lead in the second half, but a dunk from James Ennis -- wham! -- had the 49ers suddenly leading 61-59 with five minutes remaining. Their fans started to smell their first tournament win since 1973.

But, after a timeout, Williams drilled a 3-pointer that gave New Mexico a lead it would never relinquish. He hit two of his three treys in the second half, but this one was by far his biggest of the season. Or was it?

"I could probably better answer that after Saturday, because hopefully I can hit some big ones on Saturday," Williams said. "It was nice. It was nice. Good shot."

That slightly coy response refers to New Mexico's date Saturday with Louisville.

After Williams hit his shot, Ware missed the front end of a one-and-one, Gordon made a layup, Ware fouled Williams, and Williams hit a pair of free throws. So in under 1:30, a 2-point Lobos deficit became a 5-point Lobos lead. The 49ers cut the lead to two and three over the final minutes, but Ware couldn't make any plays, and the Lobos hit five of their last six free throws.

While Williams played Robin to Gordon's Batman, it wasn't as if the 49ers didn't provide support to Ware. The rest of them shot 50 percent from the floor, matching the Lobos' strong team shooting night (25-of-50). Ennis had 13 points and seven rebounds, while T.J. Robinson added 12 points and 13 boards.

But Long Beach State goes as Ware goes, and he never was able to get good looks against a Lobos defense designed to thwart him.

"We had a pretty good game plan for Cas," Williams said. "He's a great scorer, great player. But we have some athletic guys and we were able to drag out the screens a little bit. Early in the game he was able to turn the hip on some of our big men, and we made that adjustment and tried to have him be forced back into the guard and kind of contained him a little better."

By obscuring the 49ers' biggest star, Williams now burns a bit brighter. Now, what's he got planned for Saturday?

PORTLAND, Ore. -- Some quick thoughts on New Mexico's 75-68 win over Long Beach State in the West Regional second round of the NCAA tournament.

Overview: New Mexico shot 51 percent from the floor and rode four double-digit scorers to a win over Long Beach State in an entertaining, fast-paced game. While star center Drew Gordon did his thing, he got a lot of support, and 49ers star Casper Ware had a terrible afternoon shooting. The Lobos, not a particularly great 3-point shooting team, hit 4-of-10 in the second half.

Turning point: With five minutes left, Long Beach State's James Ennis gave the 49ers a 61-59 lead on a dunk. But Kendall Williams answered on the other end with a 3-pointer, and New Mexico would never trail again.

Key player: While Gordon was very good -- 18 points, 13 rebounds, 7-of-9 from the field -- it's hard to ignore Kendall Williams' second-half contribution. He scored 14 of his 16 points in the second half, including a pair of key 3-pointers on three attempts. He also had six assists and three rebounds.

Key stat: Ware is a fantastic player, but he had a poor game, shooting 5-of-19 from the field, including 2-of-9 from 3-point range. He did dish seven assists. He probably could have dished a few more.

Miscellaneous: The Lobos outrebounded their opponents in 27 of 30 regular-season games, but LBSU won the rebound battle 33-30, including a 14-7 advantage on the offensive glass. ... The game featured plenty of balance. Both teams had four players in double-figures and 12 players in the game had at least five points. ... New Mexico at 19 assists vs. 13 for LBSU, and the Lobos also had fewer turnovers -- 14 to 15. ... The Lobos had seven blocked shots.

What’s next: New Mexico will play Louisville on Saturday for a chance to advance to the Sweet 16. Times are TBA.

1. Long Beach State coach Dan Monson was non-committal Monday on whether or not Larry Anderson can go for the 49ers in their second-round game Thursday against New Mexico. The 49ers won the Big West tournament without Anderson (knee), but any chances for an upset may depend on his availability. It would be a shame if the 49ers aren’t at full strength, because they were a legit, trendy pick to win a game.

2. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski wasn’t prepared to rule out forward Ryan Kelly (foot injury) for Friday's second-round game against Lehigh but wasn’t sounding too optimistic that he will play. You can’t compare Kelly to Kyrie Irving, but it is a bit of déjà vu that the Blue Devils are dealing with a foot injury heading into the NCAA tournament for the second consecutive season.

3. North Carolina coach Roy Williams wouldn’t give an exact time frame for the return of forward John Henson, who missed the past two games with a wrist injury. The selection committee was under the impression that Henson would be back for the tournament.

Bracket first impressions:

Someone on the Selection Committee must be a frustrated screenplay writer.

How else to explain the endless plots coursing through some of these regions?

In the South, Kentucky will debut as the No. 1 overall seed against either its in-state neighbor, Western Kentucky, or former Wildcat Sean Woods, the man who would have sent the Unforgettables to the Final Four were it not for a guy named Laettner.

Should the Cats get through that game, next up is defending national champion Connecticut, the team that knocked them out of the Final Four a year ago. Last we took the pulse, former New England rivals Jim Calhoun and John Calipari weren’t double-dating with milkshakes, either.

After that how about a possible Sweet 16 date with Christian Watford, er, Indiana? The Hoosiers, thanks to Watford’s shot that restored a program, are the only team to beat Kentucky in the regular season.

And then to complete the fun down South, there is perhaps an Elite Eight game against Duke (which might have to get UNLV, its program-establishing Final Four foe, first). Twenty years ago this season, the two met in in a sort-of kind-of memorable regional final.

That guy named Laettner again.

Across the way in the Midwest there are some decent storylines, too. Harrison Barnes and Doug McDermott could square off in an 1-8 game. The two once, believe it or not, were on the same team. As you might expect, Ames (Iowa) High was pretty good – 53-0 with two state titles in their tenure.

In the Sweet 16, Barnes' Tar Heels could tango with Michigan. If you don’t recall, the two met in the 1993 title game. Chris Webber remembers. He called timeout.

Being a No. 1 seed ain’t what it used to be.

Back when, like last year, you could write the nation’s best through to the Sweet 16 in ink. Maybe you wouldn’t press too hard, but ink was fine.

Now grab a pencil.

The No. 1s were not exactly rewarded with cakewalk 8-9 opponents.

Potentially lining up across from Kentucky: defending national champion Connecticut, a team that started the season ranked No. 4 in the country and sports two NBA first-rounders on its roster.

In line for North Carolina: How about a possible date with Creighton, one of the few teams in the country that can score with the Tar Heels and boasts an All-America candidate in McDermott to boot?

Michigan State could get a matchup with Memphis, a wildly talented No. 8 seed that has won 11 of its past 12 games.

Syracuse might say hello to Kansas State, two-time winners over Missouri.

Some other random observations:

• Is it the nickname? If he went by something less intimidating — like his given name, James — would Bruiser Flint be welcomed to the party? His Drexel team did win 27 games after all, and that used to be the goal of the sport — winning games.
• As usual, the 5-12 game is where the action is. Wichita State and VCU, mid-major darlings both, meet in the South; New Mexico-Long Beach State in the West and Vanderbilt-Harvard in the East. Tiebreaker in that one is a spelling bee.

Seeded too high: Colorado, Southern Miss.

Seeded too low: Memphis, Murray State, Detroit.

VCU 2012: That would be Iona. Most everyone is screaming about the Gaels being in. Understandable. But the Gaels are talented enough to make everyone eat their words just like the Rams did last year.

First team to 300 wins: That could be Creighton and North Carolina. The Tar Heels average 80 points; the Bluejays 83. Bring your oxygen tank.

Win or you’re out: That goes to all the folks who argued their merit despite failing to finish above .500 in their respective leagues. It’s not an official selection committee rule but de facto works fine by us.

And finally the potential: In October, they were tabbed the two best teams, loaded with the most talent. In December, they played an epic game in Lexington, Ky., decided only by Anthony Davis' incredible reach topping John Henson’s equally impossible wingspan. And on April 2, Kentucky and North Carolina could meet again for the national title.

Andy Katz discusses the Saturday games that intrigued him the most: New Mexico's Mountain West title victory, Missouri's dominant Big 12 performance, Colorado's Pac-12 welcome, Pat Knight's post-rant championship and conference rings for old rivals Memphis and Louisville.

New Mexico’s fans have long treated the Lobos basketball program as the professional sports team the state does not have.

They pack the Pit. They talk about UNM all year long. They paint the town red.

And with that comes high expectations.

But the Lobos haven’t always had to deal with the pressure from the conference or outside the region -- until this season.

New Mexico was the preseason favorite to win the Mountain West.

The Lobos did, sharing the regular-season crown with San Diego State. SDSU was the top seed in the MWC tournament, but UNM won by beating host UNLV on Friday, then San Diego State on Saturday to cap off the title run.

The state of New Mexico follows this team like the Commonwealth shadows Kentucky. But the Wildcats fans usually have their expectations met. That’s not the case from Albuquerque to Alamogordo and all points in between.

“This one is special because we were expected to do it and we did it,’’ said New Mexico coach Steve Alford by phone from Las Vegas after the Lobos’ 68-59 victory over the Aztecs at the Thomas & Mack Center. “We won both the league and the conference tournament. We were picked to win it so there was a lot of pressure all year on these guys.’’

The Lobos were trying to figure themselves out to start the season without a four-year starting point guard in Dairese Gary. That somewhat accounted for a disheartening home loss to rival New Mexico State on Nov. 16, then a befuddling overtime loss to Santa Clara eight days later in the first round of the 76 Classic in Anaheim, Calif.

The Lobos won their next two games and didn’t lose again until hosting San Diego State on Jan. 18.

“It just took us a while,’’ Alford said. “San Diego State and UNLV both had good nonconference wins so they got all the attention early.’’

The Lobos were flying under the radar, yet were racking up wins and split the season series with UNLV and SDSU. They ran out of gas and into two hot home teams in Colorado State and TCU two weeks ago. But that didn’t affect this team, which has now won five straight.

The diversity of scoring with Drew Gordon, Kendall Williams and Tony Snell, the addition of Hugh Greenwood as a steading force at the point, and a coaching staff that is so secure now in this job has led to a program that is winning consistently.

Alford has now reached the NCAA tournament twice in the past three seasons. The Lobos were a No. 3 seed two years ago, beating Montana before losing to Washington.

The expectation will be on the Lobos to advance at least one round next week. Alford is hoping that the Lobos have earned the right to stay out west. New Mexico can’t play in Albuquerque, since it is the host. But UNM could play in Portland. The West regional is in Phoenix if the Lobos were to win two games.

“We’re real anxious to see where we’ll be,’’ Alford said. “We’ve got really good shooting, we’re guarding the ball and we play nine or 10 people. But it will all come down to matchups.’’

Alford said he couldn’t get over how many Lobos fans turned out in Las Vegas. He expects a similar surge on the road in the NCAA tournament.

Dave Bliss had moderate conference tournament success toward the end of his tenure at UNM. Fran Fraschilla and Ritchie McKay weren’t there long enough to establish a tradition. But Alford has now done something the others did not, and that’s get in the NCAAs twice in three years.

“It’s been unbelievable,’’ said Alford, who previously coached Southwest Missouri State (now Missouri State) and Iowa to the NCAA tournament. “I think we’ll have a couple thousand people waiting for us at the airport Sunday. We’ve got such a passionate fan base. We’ve put a good product on the floor. We’ve now had a three-week period where we’ve shot it well and we’ve guarded. Hopefully we can keep doing that and if we do we have a chance to be successful.’’

You already know the drill: Even without dearly departed Brigham Young, the Mountain West has been the West Coast's best basketball conference all season long, but one notably divided between haves (maybe the better term is "have-talents") like UNLV, San Diego State and New Mexico and the have-nots like Boise State, TCU and Air Force. Colorado State was the league's one true bubble question, but after this week's advance to the MWC semifinals -- where all of the top-four seeds held -- the Rams are in solid tournament shape. When you send half your league to the NCAA tournament, you're doing something right.

On Saturday night, No. 1 seed San Diego State will face No. 2 seed New Mexico in the Mountain West tournament final. Seeds held, but that counts as a bit of a surprise, because UNLV's semifinals loss to UNM Friday night marked the first time the Rebels lost in their home gym -- the Thomas and Mack Center, site of this year's MWC tournament -- all season.

What does this game have in store? Let's briefly break it down:

Can the Aztecs disrupt the Lobos' offense? This game pits the Mountain West's most efficient offense, New Mexico, versus the league's second-most efficient defense in San Diego State. New Mexico's raw efficiency numbers were a bit deceiving, because they racked up two silly games against Air Force, but the point remains: This is a good offense, one of the nation's 35 best (per KenPom.com), and one that thrives on ball movement and efficient shooting. The Lobos tally an assist on 64.5 percent of their possessions this season, the third-highest assist-to-field-goal rate in the country. With the ball flying around the court so rapidly, perhaps it's no surprise New Mexico also has a tendency to turn it over, which it did on 20 percent of its possessions in MWC play, the seventh-worst mark in the conference. San Diego State will have to pressure New Mexico along the perimeter, disrupting that ball movement and perimeter attack.

But it can't afford to lose track of forward Drew Gordon in the paint, either. Gordon's interior presence was a major reason why the Lobos led the conference in offensive rebounding rate this season, and he'll like the matchup he sees Saturday: Per KenPom's effective height metric, New Mexico is one of the 50 tallest teams in the country. San Diego State ranks No. 233. The Aztecs don't force a ton of turnovers on the perimeter in general this season, so they might be better off packing it in and swarming Gordon at every turn.

Can San Diego State force a close game? When you look at the efficiency breakdowns and matchups for these two teams, there are few areas in which SDSU has been notably better than New Mexico this season, particularly on offense. San Diego State was the MWC's fifth-most efficient offense in conference play, and the general impression of this team as a bunch of perimeter-oriented sharpshooters led by Chase Tapley isn't very accurate: SDSU's effective field goal percentage of 48.5 ranked No. 7 in the MWC this season.

If this game is a shootout, SDSU is at a disadvantage. Indeed, its best hope to take down the seemingly (despite the seeds) superior Lobos is to slow the game down, make everything difficult for UNM, and hope Jamaal Franklin -- the MWC player of the year and arguably the most talented player on the floor tonight -- can take over at key moments down the stretch. Franklin's last-second heroics against Boise State got the Aztecs here in the first place. They may need it tonight more than ever.

Whatever happens, we know this: The MWC's three best teams are refreshing to watch. After days of Big East and Big Ten tournament action -- in which teams grind each other into the ground, often preferring strength and physicality and deliberate (read: slow) pace over skill and aesthetic appeal -- flipping to Friday night's UNLV-New Mexico semifinal felt like a breath of fresh air. Fast breaks! Secondary offense! Spread sets! Post players with finesse! What's all this?!

We can only hope for more of the same Saturday. If the season to date is any indication, we'll get it. And we'll get a downright thrilling affair to boot.

Don't sleep on the Mountain West tournament.

Not that you would, of course. You're hip. You're with it. You're not living in the past, man. You know that if you're looking for the West Coast's -- or at least the western half of the country's -- best college hoops, one must look to the Mountain West.

This week, that means focusing squarely on the MWC tournament in Las Vegas, where this conference's eight teams can be divided up among three categories:

• Tourney-Bound Contenders: UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico
• Miracle Auto-Bid Underdogs: Wyoming, Boise State, Air Force, TCU
• Bubble Hopefuls: Colorado State

The bracket is here. The scoreboard schedule is here. Here's a quick and hopefully handy set of questions about what to look for after tipoff in the Thomas and Mack Center at 3 p.m. ET Thursday afternoon:

Will Colorado State get it done? As you no doubt know, there is but one team with bubble drama in the Mountain West. UNLV, SDSU and UNM have all long since firmed up their at-large bids, while Wyoming, Boise State, Air Force and TCU are all in need of respective miracle runs to the MWC title (not impossible, but unlikely) to get in the Big Dance. The Rams are the only team that could go either way. So, given their position as the No. 4 seed in this week's conference tournament, what are their odds of making the NCAA tournament field? The chances are good, actually, but for now they rest on one thing: Colorado State can't afford to lose to TCU.

It's not that a loss would necessarily put Colorado State out of the tournament. As of now, our Joe Lunardi has the Rams in the field, and clearly so, above bubble teams like Seton Hall, Drexel, Xavier and Northwestern, not to mention the likes of Texas, Tennessee, Oregon, NC State and the rest of the squads that need runs of various deepness in their league tournaments to make a positive move along the bubble line. CSU, as it is, is a No. 12 seed. But if they dip out of the tournament too early, and do so in rather ugly fashion, it could contribute to an impression that the Rams (who won just one road game in Mountain West regular-season play, and not until last Saturday's game at Air Force) were great at home this season but not-so-great away from Ft. Collins, and the loss would surely ding an otherwise solid (especially RPI and SOS-wise) profile. If CSU wins and makes it to the semifinals to (most likely) face San Diego State, then it could probably begin to feel pretty safe about its chances. But nothing is guaranteed going in.

Is UNLV the favorite? You would think so. After all, the Rebels were 16-0 in the Thomas and Mack Center this season, and this tournament is being played in, you guessed it, the Thomas and Mack. (Actually, you didn't guess it; I told you as much above. But if you weren't paying attention, maybe you guessed it? Moving on ...) That will no doubt translate into a huge home-court advantage, and not just from the hometown fans, but also from the sheer familiarity and comfort that comes with playing on the same floor where the Rebels spend so much of their basketball-related time.

Then again, for all the talk of home court, Dave Rice's team is at a distinct disadvantage when it comes to the bracket. The Rebels are the No. 3 seed, which means that if they handle business against Wyoming, they're likely to meet No. 2-seed New Mexico in the semifinal, which promises to be a much more difficult game than San Diego State is likely to face in the other semi, even if Colorado State does make it through as planned.

In one sense, you have to like the Rebels to win this thing. They haven't lost on their home floor, and it's on their home floor. But with the way final MWC standings and seeding shook out, UNLV's road to the title is hardly going to be a stroll.

Who's the most likely sleeper? I'll go with TCU. The Horned Frogs have played -- in spurts, admittedly -- some very solid basketball down the stretch. In February alone, Jim Christian's team took down Colorado State, UNLV and New Mexico on its own floor, and got a win at Air Force (not as easy a feat as you'd think) to boot. The Horned Frogs shot the 3 better than any team in conference play, and their offense tied for the league's second-best in conference play at 1.05 points per trip. The problem? Defense. If the Horned Frogs get hot, they could certainly pose a threat to a very bubble Colorado State team in the first round. But if the shots don't fall, the lackluster defense that plagued Christian's team all season won't serve it well in what should be a raucous and rowdy environment. We'll see.

What else should I read about the MWC tournament? I'm glad you asked. In some order, you should check out:

• John Gasaway's final edition of Tuesday Truths, which proves some handy final per-possession stats for MWC play. (The general gist: New Mexico was good, but not quite as good as its efficiency margin makes it seem, mostly because it destroyed Air Force twice.)
• The Las Vegas Sun's preview of how UNLV is approaching this tournament, not to mention its constantly shifting NCAA seed possibilities.
• Another LV Sun story, this one about how the conference tournament (and the coming wave of NCAA games) will affect local business (read: casinos).
• This brilliant flowchart designed to help you figure out exactly who to root for in the MWC tournament. (Sample eliminator question: "Do Cowboy butts drive you nuts?")

Click here to read our afternoon recap. Now back to the lecture at hand, which comes in three parts:

The Rivalry

No. 2 Syracuse 71, Connecticut 69: One of the many things to love about this Syracuse team -- besides its great zone defense and incredible depth and talent and length and pretty much everything besides defensive rebounding -- is how well it handles close games. Since the Jan. 21 loss at Notre Dame, Syracuse has taken respective best shots from Cincinnati, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, South Florida and now at UConn, and each time the Orange have either pulled away late or made the key stop down the stretch to preserve the narrow win. It's a real skill, and it isn't entirely intangible; when you have a defense this good, you tend to get a lot of stops, and there's no reason why that wouldn't be true in the final minutes of any given game, too. But however you quantify it, the Orange win close games. Such traits tend to come in handy in March.

As for Connecticut? While the Huskies didn't get the win, they appear to be rounding into form, or at least starting to figure a few things out. UConn had its fair share of issues with Syracuse's zone, and there were plenty of bad shots to be had, but the Huskies were much more balanced (four players finished in double figures, while Ryan Boatright and Shabazz Napier combined for 13 assists) and competent on both ends of the floor in the second half. Unless it suddenly begins shooting the ball from outside at a much higher clip, this team probably has a ceiling. But there are plenty of realistic improvements to be made. Even better, many of them appear to be in progress. Let's not bury this team just yet.

The Upsets

Purdue 75, No. 13 Michigan 61: When Purdue guard Ryne Smith was asked what he thought about guard Kelsey Barlow's dismissal from the team last week, he was direct, even curt: "Addition by subtraction," Smith said. Apparently he was right. Whatever the reason, Purdue played its best game of the season Saturday at the most important time, containing Michigan's outside shooters and slowly stretching a second-half lead thanks to the heady play of point guard Lewis Jackson, forward Robbie Hummel and, most importantly, guard Terone Johnson, who scored a career-high 22 points and made a handful of key plays down the stretch, including two big and-1 finishes around the rim. Purdue is an unconventional team with no true post presence; the Boilermakers rely on Hummel's outside-in versatility and an extended, guard-oriented style. This makes them a great matchup for Michigan, and, in their own way, a dangerous team.

In any case, Purdue can now feel entirely safe about its at-large NCAA tournament chances. Beating Michigan at home -- the Wolverines' first home loss of the season -- is most definitely a signature victory. And it couldn't have come at a better time.

TCU 83, No. 21 New Mexico 64: Let's hear it for TCU! A round of applause is most definitely in order. At this time in 2011, the Horned Frogs were in the midst of a season-ending 13-game losing streak, en route to an 11-22 finish. This season is an entirely different story: TCU is playing its best basketball down the stretch, having won four of its past five (and eight in a row at home) and toppling ranked UNLV and New Mexico and a good Colorado State squad in the process. The key: great 3-point shooting. The Horned Frogs lead the league in long-range makes in conference play, and they're undefeated at home as a result. What a difference a year makes.

In the meantime ... um, what happened to New Mexico? Last Saturday, we watched in near-awe as the Lobos thoroughly dominated UNLV, which came just a few days after a 10-point win at San Diego State. Steve Alford's team, once a relatively unheralded efficiency darling with few good wins to show for it, looked set to run away with the Mountain West and make a deep run into March. Since then, the Lobos are 0-2 and are now in a three-way tie. A loss at Colorado State makes some sense; we know the Rams are tough, particularly at home. And this is not to take away from TCU, which (as you just read above) is giving everyone more than they bargained for in February, particularly in their own building. But a 19-point blowout loss? Isn't this the team that just rolled UNLV in the Pit and moved to 8-2 in the league? It's kind of weird, right?

Georgia 76, No. 11 Florida 62: This is an upset, of course, but I'm not sure we should be all that surprised. Frankly, I'm not sure if a Florida loss should ever truly catch us off guard. Don't get me wrong: The Gators are good. But they're a specific kind of good. When their steady diet of 3s are falling, they can shoot opponents off the floor before said opponents even have a chance to catch their breath. But if the shots aren't going down, Florida has no Plan B. Patric Young is the only true post presence, and his offensive game is still a work in progress (and he's still underutilized as a scoring threat to boot). The Gators' defense -- which ranks fifth in opponents' points per possession in SEC play, No. 10 in opponents' 3-point field goal percentage and No. 10 in block rate -- still isn't good enough to hold opponents in check when the shots clanging off the iron and the opponents start turning long rebounds into secondary breaks and easy buckets. Florida might yet get there on the defensive end, but it isn't yet. If this UF team has a lower ceiling than it should, well, that's why.

The Bubble Specials

Alabama 67, Mississippi State 50: It was instinctively easy to write off the Crimson Tide when coach Anthony Grant suspended Tony Mitchell and JaMychal Green; it was easy to predict a late collapse, even a fall off the bubble, for a team whose two leading scorers would be missing such important games down the stretch. Instead, the Crimson Tide keep, well, rolling. They've now won three in a row and prevented any hint of a collapse. Mississippi State, on the other hand, appears to be doing exactly that: The Bulldogs are collapsing. This is the Bulldogs' fifth consecutive defeat, a stretch that has included some good basketball (in the near-miss vs. Kentucky this week) but also some baffling losses (the loss at Auburn especially). It's no stretch to say Mississippi State -- which for much of the season looked like a tourney near-lock -- could wind up missing the tournament after all. The Bulldogs are, after all, 6-8 and tied with rival Ole Miss in the SEC standings. Ouch.

Northwestern 67, Penn State 66: Breathe a big ol' sigh of relief, Northwestern fans: In the chase for their first NCAA tournament appearance in school history, the Wildcats remain very much alive. Senior forward John Shurna made the game-winning free throws with just 2.6 seconds remaining, giving Bill Carmody his first win in State College since 2002. Big challenges still lie ahead: Ohio State comes to town on Wednesday, followed by next weekend's season-ender at Iowa, a team that just knocked off Indiana and Wisconsin in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. But for now, some minor rejoicing is in order. Northwestern's tourney hopes are still very real.

Rutgers 77, Seton Hall 72 (OT): Let's not take Seton Hall off the bubble just yet, eh? The Pirates got a great win over Georgetown this week, one that could have firmed up a previously shaky at-large profile. All Seton Hall needed to do the rest of the way was avoid bad losses. Well, losing to a young, 13-16 Rutgers team at home is just that. Next weekend, the Hall travels to DePaul. If the Pirates lose there, all the good vibes from the emphatic Georgetown victory will have almost entirely faded from the picture.

VCU 89, George Mason 77: First things first: Thanks to Drexel's one-point win at Old Dominion on Saturday afternoon, VCU's win over George Mason won't give them a share of the CAA title this season. Bummer, sure, but the Rams would surely settle for a spot in the NCAA tournament, something to which they're at least a little closer after this victory today. As a league, the Colonial's top teams (Drexel, VCU and GMU) didn't get quality nonconference wins (VCU's best came against South Florida, for example), so any at-large consideration will have to come from separation at the top and perhaps a pair of deep runs for both Drexel and VCU in the CAA tournament. A win here was a must, and Shaka Smart's team got it, behind Bradford Burgess' career-high 31 points.

Dayton 76, UMass 43: A home loss to UMass can't be called "bad," but for a team like Dayton -- which is desperately scrapping for a spot in the NCAA tournament -- it could have been disastrous. Instead, the opposite happened: UD won, and won big, looking very much like one of the A-10's best teams and a squad worthy of a tourney bid in the process. We'll see how the Flyers finish up, but if they're one of the last four in, they might just be one of the play-in game candidates, which are held in -- you guessed it -- Dayton!

Saint Joseph's 82, No. 22 Temple 72: Speaking of somewhat fringe Atlantic 10 tournament hopefuls, the A-10 can't offer a bubble team a better shot at a marquee win than Temple on its own floor late in the season, but the Hawks still had to overcome Fran Dunphy's typically peerless bunch, which had won its previous 11 games and 13 in the 15-game stretch beginning with its Jan. 4 victory over Duke. Phil Martelli's team is now 9-6 in the league and 19-11 overall, and it added the one thing it desperately needed to its profile: A legitimate top-25 RPI win. Temple is most definitely that.

Penn 55, Harvard 54: Just when you think it's time to plan a long-awaited Harvard hoops coronation, Penn's Zack Rosen comes along, scores 20 points, makes a huge jumper down the stretch and ices two game-winning free throws in the final 30 seconds. And all of a sudden the Ivy League race is legitimately up for grabs with both of these teams having two losses. (Another one-game playoff for the Crimson? Oh boy.) As an at-large entity, Harvard is still in decent shape, but its profile isn't so strong that it can afford to lose at either Columbia or Cornell in its final two games, lose out on the Ivy auto-bid, and still feel safe about being picked to join the group of 37 at-large teams. Big days ahead for Tommy Amaker's team.

Washington 59, Washington State 55: For the first 10 or so minutes of the first half, it looked like Wazzu was going to hand its in-state opponent the type of loss that would severely damage Washington's at-large chances. But the Huskies fought back and, as the AP report notes, won the game's most important battle -- at the charity stripe: "Ultimately, the game came down to free throws. WSU (14-14, 6-10) went 11 of 12 to keep the game tied at 28-all despite shooting 27 percent in the first half. In the second half, the Cougars shot 6 of 20 from the free throw line, while the Huskies, who only went 2 of 5 in the first half, finished 17 of 24." The win keeps Washington on the right side of the bubble for now, but UW's marginal profile might not be able to survive a loss at either USC or UCLA going away.

Xavier 65, Richmond 57: Kenny Frease's season highs in both points (19) and rebounds (14) helped carry Xavier to an ugly but ultimately victorious Saturday. A loss here would have kicked Xavier off the bubble for good and almost certainly, barring an upset in the A-10 tournament, ended Chris Mack's 100 percent NCAA tournament hit rate in his XU tenure. Instead, the Musketeers live to fight another day.

No. 21 San Diego State 74, Colorado State 66: The Rams pass at least two NCAA tournament bubble tests: The RPI/SOS numbers are great, and they sure do look like a tournament team. But will that be enough? A win in Viejas Arena would have provided a tidy bookend to this week's huge victory over New Mexico, but the loss isn't a huge deal. Colorado State, which is undefeated at home in Mountain West play, hosts UNLV in Fort Collins in just three days' time. Win that one and the Rams are probably set.