ESPN Men's Basketball

This morning, my man Myron Medcalf honed in on the Indiana Hoosiers. He spoke with coach Tom Crean about Cody Zeller's similarities to Andrew Luck -- which go deeper than "they're both really good" -- and the massive preseason expectations the Hoosiers will face in the run up to the 2012-13 season. Crean is handling the preseason expectations how you'd, ahem, expect -- by trying to instill some perspective in his players, who he believes aren't "caught up" in the hype for next season:

"When you’re immersed in it, you stay in your own reality. And our reality is we’ve got a long way to go to get where we want to go. We’re going to have upwards of eight freshmen and sophomores on this team next year. Obviously, one of them is Cody [Zeller] but still, he’s only going to be a sophomore. And the bottom line for us is we’ve got to get a lot of guys meshed into this team."

Of course, he's right. That goes not only for Indiana's chances of competing for a Final Four spot or a national title, but also for winning the Big Ten, which will again be the nation's best conference in 2012-13.

Indiana is the early favorite to win the league, but it's hardly a guarantee. At least two other teams, the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines, are fully justified in having Big Ten title aspirations. Both teams will arguably have as much talent on their rosters as the Hoosiers.

As expected, Ohio State lost Jared Sullinger to the NBA draft, and shooting guard William Buford graduated this spring. But the Buckeyes -- thanks to Thad Matta's excellent 2011 recruiting class -- have big-time players waiting in the wings.

Center Amir Williams was infrequently used in his freshman season, but was the No. 4 center in his recruiting class. He should be ready, after a year of Sully apprenticeship, to take on big minutes and a major role on both ends of the floor. Swingman Sam Thompson could experience a similar sophomore boost, and point guard Shannon Scott will take on a bigger share of minutes playing behind and alongside starting point guard Aaron Craft. Sophomore small forward LaQuinton Ross missed his entire freshman season due to academic issues, but he could play a role as well.

Plus, the remaining starters are awfully good. Deshaun Thomas is one of the nation's most versatile scoring threats who rounded out his game throughout an excellent sophomore season, while Craft remains the nation's best perimeter defender, bar none. Offense may be a struggle for these Buckeyes early in the season, but their sterling ballhawking defense, a trademark of Matta's teams at OSU, isn't going anywhere.

Michigan will be no less talented. Coach John Beilein got the best news of his offseason when he learned that Big Ten Freshman of the Year (media) Trey Burke would eschew the NBA draft and return to school. Burke is a fantastically intelligent, savvy player, and his efficiency statistics (he posted a 105.3 offensive rating in 2012) will only get better as he improves his outside shooting and cuts down on the turnovers that occasionally marred his proclivity (as evidenced by his 28.7 percent assist rate) for the art of the dime. Shooting guard Tim Hardaway Jr. could be one of the nation's most polished perimeter scorers as a junior.

Beilein will mesh his leftover talent -- from a team that won a share of its first Big Ten title since the mid-80s, no less -- with the two best recruits of his Michigan tenure. Glenn Robinson III, the son of former NBA star Glenn "Big Dog" Robinson (we agreed we are calling Robinson III "Little Big Dog," yes?) is ranked No. 18 overall in the class of 2012. He has drawn raves from ESPNU's scouts for his "freakish athleticism" and ability to score from the perimeter, off the dribble and in the mid-range. His longtime friend and fellow incoming freshman, power forward Mitch McGary, was once considered the second-best prospect in the class of 2012. He's slipped since then, but only to No. 27 overall in the class, and he promises to be a force in his first season for the Wolverines.

The loss of shooters Stu Douglass, Zack Novak and Evan Smotrycz, and the addition of Robinson and McGary (as well as the return of forward Jon Horford from injury) present Beilein with an interesting but altogether welcome problem: These Wolverines won't be a typical Beilein team. They will attack the glass and pound the paint far more often, if only out of necessity. And with all those weapons, they'll be very difficult to stop.

Then there's Michigan State. The Spartans lost their heart and soul in senior forward Draymond Green, but the rest of the picture is bright: Point guard Keith Appling is back, as are forwards Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix. Impressive freshman guard Branden Dawson saw his season end after tearing an ACL in early March; his return will be tentative throughout the year. The good news? Tom Izzo beat out Indiana and Purdue to land the No. 2-ranked shooting guard in the class, Gary Harris, and will add three top-100 players (power forwards Kenny Kaminski and Matt Costello and small forward Denzel Valentine) to a team positively brimming with big, tough, athletic players. If the Spartans can do without Green -- and that's a valid question, given how much he meant to this program -- and rebound the ball at a similar rate as in 2012, they're legitimate Big Ten contenders, too.

Then there are the usual suspects: Wisconsin is Wisconsin, and Bo Ryan still hasn't finished worse than fourth place, or missed the NCAA tournament, in any season of his 11 seasons at the school. Minnesota will get Trevor Mbakwe, one of the nation's most bruising power forwards (now on his sixth-year medical redshirt season), back from last year's season-ending ACL injury. Purdue coach Matt Painter will bring in three top-100 players (center A.J. Hammons, shooting guard Rapheal Davis and point guard Ronnie Johnson, all three of whom hail from Indiana), an influx of size and young talent to build around. Iowa coach Fran McCaffery hauled in his best recruiting class, including Iowa native Adam Woodbury, the No. 10-ranked center in 2012. Northwestern has Drew Crawford and a spate of solid guards to put around senior transfer Jared Swopshire, an athletic former Louisville forward who could be a perfect fit for Bill Carmody's Princeton system.

You get the idea. Not all of these teams will contend for the Big Ten regular-season title. But most of them will. At the very least, the conference is sure to have a deep spate of teams determined to make any path to the Big Ten crown less a sprint than a drawn-out, physical scrum. Remember when Kentucky went undefeated in its league, with a massive efficiency margin to boot? Yeah. That ain't happenin' here.

Indiana is the favorite, and an obvious pick to get to the Final Four, and for good reason. But before the Hoosiers can turn their attention to the glories of March, they'll have to test their mettle for months on a twice-weekly basis against the best league in the country. That can be a good thing, or a bad one. It can be galvanizing experience, or a humbling one. Either way, nothing will come easy.

You already know about the first. It's Louisville forward Jared Swopshire, who transferred out of Rick Pitino's program this spring in search of more playing time -- a scarce quantity in a frontcourt that already includes Chane Behanan, Gorgui Dieng, Wayne Blackshear, and a mix of talented reserves.

Swopshire found that playing time at Northwestern, where he'll immediately raise the level of athleticism in the Wildcats' program. And his transfer comes at a perfect time, as coach Bill Carmody searches for frontcourt talent to replace leading scorer John Shurna.

Northwestern also announced the signing of 7-foot center Alex Olah Wednesday. Olah originally hails from Romania, and though he isn't an ESPN top 100 talent by any stretch, his CV does come with some rather impressive notches: He averaged 18.5 points, 13.1 rebounds and 4.6 blocked shots per game as a senior at Traders Point Christian Academy in Zionsville, Ind., and he put up 16.7 points, 14.0 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game in the 2011 FIBA U18 European Championships.

Those numbers are almost surely inflated by the competition -- you can watch (hilariously edited) YouTube videos and decide for yourself -- but there's at least an outside chance Olah can enter Evanston, Ill. and contribute immediately. At the very least, he has size. If there's any quality the Wildcats need, it's size. Northwestern was one of the worst rebounding teams in the country in 2012; per KenPom.com, they ranked No. 319 in offensive rebounding rate and No. 327 on the defensive end. Time and again, the Wildcats -- who started John Shurna at forward and the let's-be-polite-and-say-not-very-good Luka Mirkovic at center -- were manhandled in the paint by bigger, stronger, and just plain taller Big Ten foes.

Shurna was an excellent player, an efficient, lanky shooter perfect for Carmody's Princeton style. But he simply couldn't compete on the boards. Swopshire can. Olah is a mystery, but at least he stands 7-feet (and appears, judging by the videos, to have some ball skills to go with the size). And at least the Wildcats, forever in pursuit of that elusive first tournament berth, will bring something on the interior.

So: Is 2013 the year? In this Big Ten, probably not. But the Wildcats' chances look considerably better today than they did just a few weeks ago.

The 2012–13 Louisville frontcourt is pretty much set.

At center, there is ever-developing block specialist Gorgui Dieng. At power forward, there is Chane Behanan, an adept post scorer who could be the nation’s likeliest big-time breakout candidate. At small fowrard, there is sophomore Wayne Blackshear, a top 2011 recruit who missed much of the season thanks to shoulder surgeries, and backing this group up is forward Stephen Van Treese, a talent who likewise missed 2011 with injuries.

Where, you may ask, does forward Jared Swopshire fit into all this? Turns out, he doesn’t.

Per ESPN Chicago’s Scott Powers and Louisville Courier-Journal reporter C.L. Brown, Swopshire took a look at that Cardinals frontcourt, realized playing time would be scant and decided to transfer to Northwestern. Because Swopshire will be pursuing a graduate degree not offered at Louisville, he will be eligible to play immediately.

That is excellent news for both parties. Swopshire was stuck in a lurch at Louisville; he has a worthwhile outside-in skill set for a 6-foot–9 forward, but isn’t nearly good enough to warrant many minutes with Dieng, Behanan, Van Treese and Blackshear crowding the frontcourt. But he could be a very good fit at Northwestern, which not only has to replace the scoring chops of departing senior John Shurna, but which desperately needs a legitimate interior presence – something, anything– to keep pace in a bruising Big Ten. Swopshire offers the immediate promise of both.

And so the big Northwestern question looms large yet again: Is this the year Bill Carmody finally, mercifully gets the Wildcats to the NCAA tournament? The jury is still (obviously) very much out. But alongside returning guards like Drew Crawford, JerShon Cobb and Reggie Hearn, Swopshire will give the Wildcats a brand of athleticism they’ve rarely fielded in the Carmody era, and which they demonstrably lacked in crucial moments in 2012’s disappointing tourney-bereft finish.

At the very least, Swopshire’s transfer choice offers that promise. Win-win, this one.

1. Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton has no interest in the Illinois job, according to a source with direct knowledge of his plans. Hamilton declined to publicly comment. The source said Hamilton wants to stay at Florida State where he believes he will have a better team in 2013 than he had when he won the ACC tournament in 2012. The Seminoles, which lost to Cincinnati in the third round of the NCAA tournament, do lose key seniors Xavier Gibson, Luke Loucks, Deividas Dulkys and Bernard James. But the return of Michael Snaer and Ian Miller will secure the backcourt. Still Hamilton is firmly committed to staying at FSU where he has said he can finish his career in Tallahassee.

2. Butler coach Brad Stevens is enjoying the CBI and anticipates a semifinal matchup against Pitt that would be likened to an NCAA tournament game. “Pitt is healthy right now and playing well,’’ Stevens said Tuesday night. Stevens, who coached in consecutive national title games, said the CBI has done wonders for his team. “I look out on the court and see three freshmen and six guys in our top eight who are freshmen and sophomores,’’ Stevens said. “That’s why we’re not in the NCAA tournament. But we’re getting better and growing.’’ Still, it’s not easy for Stevens to watch the NCAAs. “It’s really hard,’’ Stevens said. “It’s never easy to watch.’’

3. A number of sources close to Northwestern’s Bill Carmody have wondered throughout the year if Carmody would return after the exhaustion of trying to get the Wildcats to the NCAAs. Still, the Wildcats have improved dramatically under Carmody and are always competitive. If he were to resign then the Wildcats would have to look at Duke associate coach Chris Collins, who is from Northbrook, Ill. Collins is ready to make a break from Duke and would do wonders back in his hometown.

Say this for the NCAA: When it expanded the tournament to 68 teams, it accomplished at least one thing.

It made your argument invalid.

Once the province of outrage and disgust, the post-tournament bracket digestion process has become downright serene. It was difficult to gin up much outrage over 2011's tournament "snubs," and you'll have to stretch even harder to get there in 2012. This bubble was soft. It was really, really soft.

The opportunities were there. If your favorite high-major team didn't make the tournament, it's probably because it missed numerous chances for big wins. If your mid-major squad didn't get in, it's probably because its league was bad and it didn't prove anything outside conference play. If you're from the Pac-12 ... well, again: Nicolas Cage's hair is a bird, and your argument is invalid.

It's hard to feel much sympathy for any of these teams. If your team was good, it would have gotten in the field. If it didn't, it wasn't. Simple enough.

That said, the bubble is always a matter of relativity. And relatively speaking, a handful of teams will be able to lodge legitimate complaints against the 2012 NCAA tournament selection committee. These are their stories:

Drexel Dragons (27-6, 16-2 CAA; RPI: 64; SOS: 248)

What the committee would say: We liked Drexel's dominance in the Colonial -- we couldn't easily discount a team that won 25 of its final 27 games -- but whom did Drexel beat, exactly? The Colonial was down this season. No one in the league got a good nonconference win. Drexel got both VCU and George Mason at home (and didn't have to go on the road), and its atrocious scheduling numbers put a major dent in all those wins. Drexel was good in the CAA tournament final, but so were a lot of teams, and we don't look at margin of victory. We wish we could put them in, but we just can't do it.

What fans would say: Dudes. Dudes! Put down the nitty-gritty sheets, toss aside your dumb schedule-strength metrics and RPI nonsense, briefly come up for air, and then ask yourself: What bubble team played better basketball in the final two months of the season than Drexel? Just because the Dragons can't get the same number of games against top-50 teams doesn't mean you shouldn't reward them for beating the teams on their schedule. Sure, the entire body of work matters, but what about the win at Cleveland State? What about that 25-2 record since early December? (25-2!) Plus, the only bad losses this team took all happened four months ago. Strength of schedule is a joke, and so are you.

Also ... you put in Iona and not Drexel? What? How does that make any sense? Explain yourselves! (You can't. Ugh.)

Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-11, 8-8 SEC; RPI: 73; SOS: 87)

What the committee would say: We care about the entire body of work. We really do. But we also reserve the right to evaluate a team as it currently is, not as it was earlier in the season, and the bottom line is this: The Bulldogs collapsed down the stretch. MSU lost six of its final eight games, including two games to Georgia, one to LSU and one to Auburn. We watch teams play, and when we watched Rick Stansbury's, we saw a disjointed, disinterested bunch who looked ripe for early upset. Besides, it's not like the body of work is overwhelming. MSU has two good wins -- over Alabama and at Vanderbilt -- and really not much else. And that 73 RPI? Yeah, that's not good.

What the fans would say: Oh ... it ... we ... we have no response. That was perfect.

Washington Huskies (21-10, 14-4 Pac-12; RPI: 70; SOS: 94)

What the committee would say: This team went 7-6 in the nonconference, and its best win came at home against UC-Santa Barbara. Its best overall win came against either Oregon or Arizona. It lost by 19 at home to South Dakota State. Sure, it won its league, but so what? The Pac-12 went 1-29 in nonconference play against the RPI top 50 this season, and if Washington was so good -- or at least as good as its obvious talent -- it would have dominated that league and made an emphatic statement in the Pac-12 tourney. Instead, it lost to Oregon State. No sympathy here.

What fans would say: East Coast bias! OK, maybe not: We admit the Pac-12 was really bad. But UW did win the league, and no power-conference regular-season champion has ever missed the NCAA tournament. Plus, before you go ripping on UW's nonconference performance, please account for the fact that it narrowly lost to Duke and Marquette in a matter of days on the East Coast in early December. If you've seen this team play, you know it can make a deep tournament run. Isn't that worth something? (Answer: No. But UW fans seem to keep making this argument anyway.)

Seton Hall Pirates (20-12, 8-10 Big East; RPI: 61; SOS: 57)

What the committee would say: Seton Hall had as many chances as any bubble team in the country to get the wins it needed to impress us. With just minimal exception, the Pirates didn't. Sure, they crushed Georgetown on Feb. 21, but that win came in the midst of a 5-10 overall finish and was mixed in with missed opportunities against beatable opportunities like Notre Dame, Louisville, UConn and Cincinnati. Throw that in with a nonconference schedule that included a loss to Northwestern and no good wins, and the impression remains: The Pirates had a decent season, but they just didn't do enough.

What the fans would say: Few bubble teams have even one RPI top-50 win. Seton Hall has four. It also won at Dayton and beat West Virginia, which, OK, that's not crazy impressive, but no one's arguing the Pirates should be a single-digit seed -- just that they're more deserving than most of the bubble for one of those last at-large spots.

Northwestern Wildcats (18-13, 8-10 Big Ten; RPI: 59; SOS: 15)

What the committee would say: How many opportunities do you need? You got 11 cracks at top-50 wins. You won one of them. That's really all you need to know. We respect the strength of schedule, but it had more to do with your conference than your nonconference, and your chief nonconference wins came over Seton Hall and LSU. OK? Bottom line: Northwestern proved it was a very average team that could beat the teams it was supposed to beat but couldn't get over the hump against the kind of teams you need to beat to prove you belong. We feel for you, Northwestern fans, but you really didn't belong.

What the fans would say: [Play Morrissey's "How Soon Is Now?", throw remote control across the wall, decide to stop caring about basketball forever.]

1. UCLA might not be a high postseason selection. So now that the Bruins are out, athletic director Dan Guerrero must either make a commitment to Ben Howland or move on after the season. He left Howland’s situation too open-ended last week. He needs to make a declarative statement, the way Pat Haden did at USC, telling the Los Angeles Times that Kevin O’Neill will be back. If Howland is going to return, Guerrero must make that clear.

2. Decisions should be made soon at Illinois and Nebraska. Bruce Weber is fully expecting there to be a change, but he’ll pocket $3.9 million. Doc Sadler isn’t so sure — but he would earn $3.4 million if he’s cut loose. It’s not even close as to which Big Ten job is better. Both schools have resources, but Illinois is always committed to hoops. Weber and Sadler are both well-liked by their peers and didn’t suddenly become poor coaches. Expect both to be gobbled up quickly in some form or fashion (head or assistant coaches) if they are officially ousted. Weber is almost a certainty but it’s too hard to have a read on Sadler at this juncture.

3. The pained expression on Bill Carmody’s face Thursday after the overtime loss to Minnesota spoke volumes about his tenure at Northwestern. Carmody has been so close to getting an NCAA bid, but yet so far. The Wildcats have had plenty of chances to win key games, but consistently fail. There really are no excuses, no one to blame and no one to debate. Northwestern hasn’t been snubbed. It has had a multitude of opportunities to get a bid but simply hasn't closed when needed. The drought will continue. This is actually worse than the Cubs, since the odds should favor Northwestern getting an NCAA bid over the Cubs winning the World Series.

Andy Katz recaps an action-packed Champ Week Thursday in college basketball.

INDIANAPOLIS -- On Thursday night, the Northwestern Wildcats didn’t talk like an NCAA tournament team. They didn’t look like one, either.

Somewhere within the vicinity of the Bankers Life Fieldhouse, the NCAA selection committee will finalize its bracket in the coming days. And the Wildcats should not be included.

They had their chance to impress and they squandered it.

“I don't know. Hopefully, I won't be disappointed on Sunday,” said Northwestern star John Shurna. “But I guess we'll just have to wait and see. We'll be playing next week, and we like to compete no matter who we're playing against.”

Don’t get me wrong. I’m a sucker for good storylines, too.

Northwestern fans around the world will celebrate the program’s first-ever bid if it happens. The buildup to NCAA tournament No. 1 will consume all of Evanston, Ill. The players within the program certainly put in the work to position themselves for a shot at history leading up to the Big Ten tournament.

But decisions have to be made without consideration of TV story packages. The selection process should answer only one question: Who’s earned it?

And the Wildcats had to do more in Indianapolis to prove that they’d earned a ticket. Instead, they lost to Minnesota for the second time this season.

They led 61-57 with three minutes to play. But they missed three shots and committed two crucial turnovers in the final minutes of regulation. They then lost 75-68 in overtime.

I am not biased toward any particular program. But I do believe the best should earn bids.

And it’s hard to see how that team -- which had to make a statement following an 8-10 record in Big Ten play and a 1-10 record against the RPI’s Top 50 -- gets into the field of 68 after that performance Thursday.

Minnesota freshman Andre Hollins, who averages 6.7 ppg, scored 25 against the Wildcats. That was the sort of clutch performance that would have made more sense for a Northwestern player based on the circumstances. But Northwestern fumbled down the stretch.

In my opinion, the Wildcats got an F on the eye test against the Gophers. They had something to prove and didn’t play like they knew it in crucial stretches.

They didn’t execute like a tournament team desperate for résumé-boosting victories.

This is not just about Northwestern. This is about the entire field.

This is about Drexel, a team that's lost two games since early December. This is about Tennessee, a team that’s won eight out of nine. This is about competition.

Teams deserve credit for their full body of work. Northwestern’s portfolio put the Wildcats in a pool of schools with similar arguments for NCAA tournament invites.

But if the selection committee aims to create the most competitive bracket, then it should rewatch NU’s effort Thursday night. It warrants scrutiny.

Every “must-have” performance within the bubblesphere does.

I watched the Northwestern-Minnesota game from press row at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. And I did not see a team that belonged in the Big Dance.

Perhaps the selection committee has already penciled in the Wildcats as a tournament team. Well, that’s why we have erasers.

This is a great story. And it’s easy to root for a Northwestern team that has never participated in the NCAA tournament. History can be quite cruel.

But that shouldn’t factor into the decision to say yea or nay to the Wildcats on Selection Sunday.

They were presented with an opportunity to make a statement on national TV on Thursday. And the Wildcats ultimately offered an argument against their first bid.

“I'm still here. It's hard. It's disappointing, tough … but, you know, you come back,” Northwestern coach Bill Carmody said after the game.

Northwestern’s resilience has been well-documented in recent years. The Wildcats have approached NCAA tournament status in the past. But players admit they’ve never felt this close to a bid.

That determination is commendable. The annual conversation about if “this is Northwestern’s year” is a familiar one for fans of any program that’s struggled year after year.

But this can’t be about sympathy. It has to be about quality.

And that means Northwestern -- just 8-12 since mid-December -- is an NIT team.

That might not seem fair to Northwestern or its supporters. But it’s fair to the game and it’s fair to other teams that will prove their worth in the coming days, something the Wildcats didn’t do in their brief stay in the Big Ten tournament.

INDIANAPOLIS — Reaction from Minnesota's 75-68 overtime victory over Northwestern:

Overview: Northwestern entered its first-round matchup against Minnesota in the Big Ten tournament Thursday needing a win, maybe multiple victories, to earn its first-ever NCAA tournament invitation. But the Wildcats never made it past the Golden Gophers, suffering a loss that damaged their hopes of dancing for the first time.

The Gophers jumped out to a 15-5 lead less than seven minutes in, but the Wildcats were 9-for-20 from beyond the arc before halftime, which helped them climb back into the game and take a 36-34 lead at the break.

Andre Hollins hit a big 3-pointer with 5 minutes to play that tied the game at 57. And he scored on a crucial drive with 55.2 seconds to play that established a 61-61 tie; that shot ultimately sent the game into overtime.

In the extra period, the Gophers played big. Austin Hollins hit a 3-pointer with just under three minutes on the game clock that put Minnesota ahead 68-64. Yet Northwestern was within one in the final 90 seconds of overtime before another Andre Hollins layup extended the lead to three.

A Rodney Williams dunk with 27.9 seconds to go put the Gophers ahead by five.

The two teams split their two conference games, with the Gophers taking a 75-52 victory in Minneapolis on Jan. 22 and Northwestern returning the favor in a 64-53 win in Evanston, Ill., on Feb. 18.

Turning point: Andre Hollins’ 3-pointer near the five-minute mark started a final push by the Gophers, who ended up sending the game into overtime. They were looking for a catalyst in the final minutes and they found one in the freshman.

Key player: Last year, Andre Hollins was a star prep in the state of Tennessee. On Thursday, he looked like a young collegiate star as he carried the Gophers with clutch shots and big plays. He scored a game-high 25 points and went 5-for-10 from beyond the arc.

Key stat: The Gophers outrebounded the Wildcats 41-24. Both teams shot 42.3 percent from beyond the arc.

Miscellaneous: The Gophers played without injured center Ralph Sampson III … The two teams were 16-for-35 combined from beyond the arc in the first half.

What’s next: The Gophers will face Michigan on Friday night. Northwestern will sweat on Selection Sunday as it awaits its postseason destination.

Before Monday's full bracket is released, here's a sneak peek at the basics of Bracketology with Sunday's bubble-impact games now in the books.

NOTABLE

• Arizona drops out of field with loss at Arizona State.
• Texas moves back into field as the last team in.
• With Cal’s loss at Stanford, Washington clinches Pac-12 regular-season title.
• Middle Tennessee falls out of field with loss to Arkansas State in Sun Belt tourney and is a fringe bubble team.

Last Four In
Northwestern
Seton Hall
Xavier
Texas

First Four Out
Tennessee
VCU
Oregon
NC State

Next Four Out
Miami (Fla.)
Iona
Arizona
Saint Joseph's

Also considered: Dayton, Marshall, Ole Miss, Middle Tennessee

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

NCAA AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Murray State (Ohio Valley)
UNC Asheville (Big South)

Believe it or not, a certain massive matchup in Durham, N.C., isn't the only college hoops game on the schedule today. Hard to believe, I know, but it's true.

Here's a look at much of the action -- bubble and otherwise -- that served as the appetizer to tonight's main course. Be sure to check back later this evening for our writers' reactions and analysis from across the country.

No. 7 Marquette 83, No. 12 Georgetown 69: When March calms down, and the offseason finishes out its usual assortment of draft decisions, coaching intrigue and off-campus arrests (and everything else), I'm going to sit down one week and calculate college hoops winning percentages on senior night. With the exception of Northwestern (which lost in heartbreaking fashion Wednesday), it felt like nearly every team in the country won its final home game of the season this week. A lot of that is just good, old-fashioned home-court advantage, and some of it is skill and so forth, but when you strip all that away, I'm still going to guess pretty much every college hoops team in the country sees a massive bounce in its winning in the final home game of the season. Quantifying emotion is never easy. This feels like a chance.

In any case, Marquette followed this (presumably real, potentially imagined) trend Saturday, easily handling a Georgetown team that was itself coming off a dominant performance in its final home game of the season, a 59-41 victory over Notre Dame. In doing so, the Golden Eagles extended their Big East record to 14-4 and ensured the No. 2 seed in the Big East tournament next week. Meanwhile, Jae Crowder made one last-ditch pitch for Big East player of the year: He scored 26 points and grabbed 14 rebounds on 8-of-15 from the field and 10-of-12 from the free throw line. (Crowder missed all five 3-point attempts, a portion of his game that he's really improved this season. When your center can shoot 37 percent from 3-point range, you've got a very difficult team to guard.)

Can Crowder win the award? Because he should. With all due respect to Darius Johnson-Odom and like four or five different Syracuse players, Crowder's mix of offensive efficiency (offensive rating: 122.9; including 61 percent from inside the arc, a low turnover rate, and the aforementioned perimeter solidity), rebounding and defense (he's averaging 2.3 steals and 1.0 blocks per game) make him, to me, the most complete, most important player in the conference.

No. 9 Murray State 54, Tennessee State 52 (Ohio Valley Championship): With six minutes left in the OVC title game, bubble teams across the country were no doubt finding it difficult to establish regulated breathing patterns. Tennessee State was up 48-43, the Racers were struggling to find stops against the dish-and-kick action of the Tigers' 1-4 low sets, and even worse, Isaiah Canaan, Murray State's do-it-all star, was battling through an off night. A two-bid OVC -- and a suddenly shrunken bubble -- were very real possibilities.

But Murray State locked in on defense, stacking great possession after great possession, cutting the Tigers off and preventing easy shots in the paint, and eventually came back to seal the win. The final go-ahead basket was a matter of immediate controversy at the broadcast table; our own Fran Fraschilla was convinced Murray State guard Jewuan Long charged on his game-winning basket. The call was close, no question. But all due respect to Fran, who is way better than this than I am, I disagree that it should have been a charge. A few things here. Long shot the ball before contact was initiated; the defender was still slightly sliding under the move, rather than entirely in front of it; and, most importantly, it was the penultimate play of a one-possession game with the NCAA tournament on the line. The ref needs to swallow his whistle there. And, in general, college coaches and players -- frankly, this applies to the NBA, too -- need to stop coaching defense like this! It's bad for the sport. There are plenty of ways to defend a driving player without fouling or attempt to draw a foul. Choose one. Don't run to a spot and hope the ref gives you the benefit of a 50-50 call, especially when your season is on the line. In short: Play defense.

Maybe that's the pickup player in me coming out; I would have little sympathy even if Long committed a blatant charge. But it wasn't. The no-call couldn't have been more appropriate. And every bubble team in the country can breathe just a little bit easier as a result.

Illinois State 65, No. 14 Wichita State 64: On second thought, bubble teams, you can go back to freaking out now. Why? Because Arch Madness has yielded its first truly mad result of the tournament. Wichita State is the Missouri Valley's best team and No. 1 overall seed, not to mention everyone's pick to be this year's mid-major tournament darling. But that didn't stop the Redbirds -- thanks to Tyler Brown's two clutch free throws and two misses in the last six seconds from WSU's Toure' Murry and Garrett Stutz -- from shocking the Shockers all the same. (Sorry. Couldn't resist.)

Wichita State doesn't have much to worry about in the way of its NCAA tournament seed, of course. But every team along the bubble line, including many of those mentioned below, should be terrified. If Creighton suffers the same fate at any point this weekend, the Missouri Valley will send three teams to the NCAA tournament and steal one bid from a bubble that is destined to shrink even further down the stretch.

Could that third team be Illinois State? Why not? When you beat Wichita State on a neutral court, you deserve the benefit of the doubt.

No. 2 Syracuse 58, No. 18 Louisville 49: This was always an uphill battle for Louisville for one obvious reason: The Cardinals can't score. Louisville can defend. It can rebound. It can get stops when it needs them. But when you have the Big East's 11th-best offense on a per-possession basis, when your effective field-goal percentage ranks outside the nation's top 200 teams, when you turn the ball over on 21.8 percent of your possessions (national rank: No. 241) and your task is to break down Syracuse's smothering 2-3 defense in the Carrier Dome, well, good luck. Syracuse played its typically potent brand of extended defense, forcing Louisville a downright awful 2-of-23 mark from beyond the arc, and that's pretty much your game right there.

It's going to be interesting to see how Rick Pitino tries to adjust this team as he heads toward the NCAA tournament. A few weeks ago, Pitino told ESPN Radio's Scott Van Pelt that he liked to speed the game up and take more risks in the tournament; in his experience, too many coaches slow down in the tournament, fearing disorganization and disarray. This might be his only course of action in March. The Cardinals can't find any offense, but they can press and trap and slap and claw and hope to get easy buckets from turnovers and bad shots in transition. At this point, with this anemic, predictable offense (prediction: Peyton Siva won't see a defense guard him over the top on another ball screen all season), does Pitino have any other choice?

Variously Questionable Bubble Losses

West Virginia 50, South Florida 44: The Mountaineers desperately needed this win. Before this week's victory over DePaul, WVU had lost seven of its previous nine games and seen its once-certain at-large tournament bid -- WVU was once a No. 5 seed in Joe Lunardi's bracket; now it's a No. 12 -- become an entirely precarious matter. This win obviously helps, and not just because it was a win: It also put a ding on one of WVU's potential bubble rivals, South Florida, which has surged into the bubble conversation in recent weeks thanks to a gaudy Big East record and consecutive victories over Cincinnati and Louisville. A win Saturday might have put the Bulls on the right side of the bubble in official fashion. As it is, their profile still looks much better than it used to, but with a 5-10 road record and a 2-8 mark against the RPI top 50, some positive results in the Big East tournament may well be necessary.

UCLA 75, Washington 69: First things first: This was a really nice win for UCLA. It hasn't been the easiest week for the Bruins (that's a candidate for understatement of the year), but with back-to-back good wins (a blowout of Washington State and this plucky victory over the league's standings leader) at least they finished on a positive note. As for Washington, the loss might well have cost the Huskies the outright Pac-12 title. Cal still needs to win get a likely but hardly guaranteed win at Stanford, but either way, the Huskies' argument -- that an outright regular-season conference title in a high-major, albeit really bad, conference should guarantee a spot in the NCAA tournament -- looks even more specious now. Washington, like the rest of this league, has nothing in the way of nonconference results to point to as proof that it is considerably better than the RPI's impression of the Pac-12 as the 10th-best league in the country. It will be fascinating to see how the committee treats UW, and the Pac-12 as a whole, but if I'm the Huskies I'm planning on making a very deep run through the Pac-12 tournament, just to be safe.

Marshall 79, Southern Miss 75: Will a loss at Marshall damage Southern Miss's bubble chances? Doubtful. Marshall is a quality team -- a deep fringe bubble candidate in its own right -- and a four-point loss in the Herd's building isn't, or shouldn't, be the kind of thing that damages a team's bubble chances. What's more, the Golden Eagles still own an RPI within the top 20. In the past 16 years, no team with an RPI of 20 higher has ever missed the tournament. (The closest was 2005-06 Missouri State, which didn't have nearly as strong a profile as this team.) They should be fine.

Maintenance-Minded Bubble Wins

Xavier 72, Charlotte 63: Xavier's final home win of the season wasn't what the Musketeers would have planned heading into the season. To wit, from the AP: "It was a bittersweet day for Xavier, which had grown accustomed to ending its final home game with a spray of confetti and a few celebratory snips of the net. The Musketeers' streak of five straight A-10 regular-season titles was snapped this season." That dream was over weeks ago. Xavier has bigger fish to slice now. The Musketeers are as close to the bubble as you can be (Lunardi's most recent bracket has them as the first team outside the field). A win won't necessarily change that, but a loss would have been disastrous, and Xavier is now in at least slightly better position as it heads into A-10 postseason play.

Northwestern 70, Iowa 66: It was very easy to imagine Northwestern -- which missed marquee wins (Michigan, Ohio State) in soul-crushing fashion twice in the past two weeks -- losing at Iowa. The Hawkeyes beat Wisconsin and Indiana at home in recent weeks, Northwestern would no doubt be feeling the historic tournament pressure, and so on. But this was an impressive victory, or at least as impressive as a victory over Iowa can ever be. This is a little like Xavier's win: It doesn't provide a bubble bump, but it does prevent a potentially disastrous move in the wrong direction at the worst possible time of the season. Is Northwestern in right now? I'd guess yes. But it's hardly a done deal. Like nearly everyone else on the bubble, the only way for Bill Carmody's team to enter Selection Sunday with any measure of confidence is to play well in next week's conference tournament. That much is clear.

Miami 77, Boston College 56: Same situation here: A loss would have been a dream-killer. A win doesn't move the needle. Miami basically has two tourney-worthy qualities on its profile: A win at Duke (huge) and a home win over Florida State (slightly less huge, but still important). But other than that, there's not much there. Can the Hurricanes knock off one of this league's top four teams -- especially Duke or UNC -- on a neutral floor next week? That might be the baseline requirement going forward.

Connecticut 74, Pittsburgh 65: The Huskies have spent much of the past three weeks looking downright determined to overcome their computer numbers (a top-five overall strength of schedule and a top-20 nonconference figure) and somehow, some way, miss the tournament. This week's loss to Providence was an apparent punctuation mark on a pretty much horrible Big East season, or at least horrible relative to this team's elite talent. After this win, though, it looks like UConn will -- just barely -- hold on to a spot above the bubble fray.

The Morning After is our semi-daily recap of last night's best basketball action. Yesterday, my editor worked 18 hours. When he arrived at the office, it was February. When he left, it was March. Sweet, glorious March. Which is a little like my arrival and departure from Welsh-Ryan Arena last night.

Point is? March is here. Thirty days of unbridled glory. Let's make every day count, you guys.

There were 58 games to track last night, and many of them held bubble implications. According to Section 10, Rule 2b, Subsection 3-48(d)(a) of the College Basketball Internet Writer's Manual, this means I am required to make a list of these teams and discuss what each result meant for their respective bubble statuses (statusii?). I don't make the rules, people.

Anyway, let's get to it, because Dana and I have to tape a podcast in, like ... oh, shoot, I really have to get going:

Cincinnati Bearcats (beat No. 7 Marquette 72-61): It is growing increasingly difficult to see just how the committee would justify keeping the Cincinnati Bearcats out of the NCAA tournament. Before last night, the only plausible reason for doing so was nonconference performance: A No. 320-ish-ranked nonconference strength of schedule, a loss to Presbyterian, too many cupcake wins, not enough done in the Big East to compensate. That last part of the argument would have been shaky, but it really is now: Cincinnati has now picked off Marquette, Georgetown (at Georgetown), Louisville and Notre Dame. The first two are top-10 bubble teams. The latter two are safely in the tournament field. I know the committee is all about nonconference SOS these days -- win or lose, they want to see you go out and play somebody, to make November and December interesting -- and Cincinnati didn't do that. But everything they've done since screams: tournament team. (And now that their RPI is creeping upward inside the 70 threshold, it's getting a little bit easier to swallow). Hard to say Mick Cronin's team doesn't belong.

Northwestern Wildcats (lost to No. 11 Ohio State, 75-73, in immensely heartbreaking fashion): Northwestern is not a team that could be criticized for failing to take on top teams. Its league, the Big Ten, is chock full of them. Which is partially the problem: After last night's devastating loss -- if NU wins we're probably not having this discussion -- the Wildcats are 7-10 in the Big Ten, with eight of their 12 losses coming to conference foes ranked higher than 50 in the RPI. In fact, Northwestern is just 1-8 against the RPI top 25. The fact that they've played eight games against the RPI top 25 is, in and of itself, a nice addition to the resume. The fact that Northwestern has managed just one win in that bunch (Michigan State at home) doesn't speak volumes.

But here's the good news: Northwestern doesn't have any bad losses. The worst is probably a one-point home loss to Illinois on Jan. 4, long before Illinois had spiraled into oblivion. A loss at Iowa on Saturday wouldn't be a bad loss in reality, but it would be the sub-100 RPI loss. It's hard to know how the committee will judge this profile. The bottom line: As a disappointed but upbeat John Shurna told ESPN.com Wednesday, the Wildcats just "got to win." A loss, and this conversation might be, unfortunately, over.

Colorado State (toppled No. 17 UNLV, 66-59): Colorado State's chief concern in the past three weeks has been the addition of big wins. The Rams have long had some of the better (and more inflated) RPI numbers in the country, but they lacked few results to which Colorado State could point and say, "See? It's not just that the RPI makes no sense! We're pretty good, too!" They got another one here Wednesday night. In eight days, the Rams have toppled UNLV and New Mexico, part of their unbeaten home record in Mountain West play. A 3-5 record against the RPI top 50 is nothing to scoff at; neither are wins against all three guaranteed tourney locks from your own league. The only problem is CSU hasn't traveled at all well: They're 4-9 away from Ft. Collins this season, including losses at Boise State, Stanford, Wyoming, Northern Iowa, and TCU. Now, many of those losses are understandable. TCU, Wyoming, and UNI are all great at home, and most seasons, it's hard to fault a quasi-mid-major like CSU for losing at Stanford. But the Rams are still just 8-8 vs. the RPI top 100. Not great, not bad. Will the top-20 RPI and top-five SOS push them over the edge?

South Florida (won at No. 18 Louisville, 58-51): Say what you will about the South Florida Bulls. You can't fault them for effort. Or, for that matter, timing. USF's win at Louisville last night was huge: It gave South Florida its best Big East win against a team not named Seton Hall or Cincinnati (not to mention a game that wasn't a one-point win at home) helping to bump this once-questionable RPI up into the top-35 range. USF's schedule ranks No. 19; its nonconference schedule strength is No. 54. The committee says it doesn't look at conference record closely, and in this instance, that makes sense: 12-5 in the Big East looks gaudy, until you dig in and see how imbalanced South Florida's schedule was, and which teams it actually beat. Still, though, you can't fault Stan Heath's team Wednesday night. They needed a huge win at Louisville, and they got it. But with a 5-10 road record and other bubble teams (like Northwestern, for example) with just-as-good-wins and fewer bad losses (USF lost to Old Dominion, Auburn and Penn State in the nonconference), USF's big Wednesday night hardly guarantees them a spot in the field. It puts them in contention, but a home win against West Virginia on Saturday (and a decent showing in the Big East tournament) is still the recommended course of action.

Saint Joseph's (lost at St. Bonaventure, 98-93, in double OT): Brutal loss for the Hawks. Phil Martelli's team has kept creeping into the fringes of the bubble picture before, only to lose a game and fall off again, but after Saturday's 10-point win against Temple, Saint Joe's put itself very much back in the conversation. They're still there, but only barely. Home losses to Richmond and Charlotte are knocks against this team, as is a road loss at American. A 6-9 record against the RPI top 100 reveals a team that has stockpiled 13 of its wins below the top 100 line. Probably a long shot now, but the A-10 tournament could help it get in position.

Dayton (lost at Richmond, 82-71): Richmond is not a horrible team by any means, and it can't be much fun to play on the Spiders' home turf, but even so, this was a rough loss for the Flyers -- who, like Saint Joseph's began the week as a fringe bubble team and look likely to end it there now as well. Archie Miller's team has racked up its fair share of quality wins, but also has a bunch of not-so-quality losses. When your RPI is No. 71 and you're 8-7 in the A-10 -- a good league, to be sure, but still -- you're going to have trouble getting a solid look on Selection Sunday. Much more work to do.

Miami (lost at NC State, 77-73): When you're a bubble team playing another bubble team, particularly one like the Wolfpack, which damaged itself with three straight missed chances (at Duke, vs. Florida State and UNC) and a subsequent overtime loss at Clemson, your best bet is to just go out and win. Miami didn't do that Wednesday night, instead falling to fellow putative bubble team NC State in Raleigh. Bad news for the Hurricanes. Worse news: Even Reggie Johnson's return from an eligibility scare didn't help. The Hurricanes are still in the hunt, but with only Boston College left on the schedule, can a win at Duke and a home win against Florida State really be enough?

Southern Miss (beat Southern Methodist at home, 67-60): This one was all about the avoidance of a bad loss, and USM got the job done. With an 11-4 record in CUSA, a 9-6 record at home, a 3-2 record against the RPI top 50 and very good (probably too good) RPI and SOS numbers, even a loss at Marshall on Saturday probably wouldn't do much to knock Larry Eustachy's team out of the field.

Texas (beat Oklahoma at home, 72-64): A home loss to Oklahoma might not be a home loss to Texas Tech, but it would have been ugly either way. Why? Because Texas's regular-season finale just so happens to come at Kansas on Saturday, where the Jayhawks pretty much never lose, and it's almost impossible to imagine (short of a legendary J'Covan Brown explosion) the young Longhorns leaving Lawrence with a signature win. A win would be great, obviously, but if (when) it doesn't happen, Texas will find itself right in the thick of the bubble chase heading into the Big 12 tournament, where upset opportunities abound. For now, they've stayed very much in the chase.

1. Tennessee coach Cuonzo Martin has done a tremendous job. How so? The Vols can actually be the No. 2 seed in the SEC tournament. How? If Tennessee beats Vanderbilt in Knoxville and Florida loses to Kentucky -- both very plausible -- then UT would be the 2-seed, winning a three-way tie at 10-6 with Florida and Vanderbilt or a four-way tie with those two and Alabama if the Tide win at Ole Miss. That’s how important the sweep of the Gators is to Tennessee. What’s amazing is that the Vols would be leapfrogged for an NCAA bid by Vandy, Florida and Alabama.

2. Northwestern has had so many chances to make the NCAAs over the past three seasons. But nothing compares to Wednesday night. In what could have been the most important regular-season game in Northwestern history, the Wildcats were within seconds of forcing overtime against No. 11 Ohio State before Jared Sullinger brought a purple rain of tears from the Wildcats fan base. Northwestern isn't dead yet, since there are opportunities against Iowa on the road and in the Big Ten tournament. But the heartbreak of the Wildcats fans must be Red Sox-Cubs like. There is no curse but it sure feels like there is one.

3. Purdue clobbered visiting Penn State on Wednesday night and it looked like no one left Mackey Arena. Why? The fans wanted to celebrate the career of Robbie Hummel. It was great theater. Hummel has had a tremendous college career, coming back from two ACL injuries. He has been the consummate team player. It’s such a shame he never got a chance to play with JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore last season when the Boilermakers could have made the Final Four. Bravo on a great career.

EVANSTON, Ill. -- Was it too much to ask?

Was it too much to hope that just one time -- this time -- would be Northwestern's turn as fate's chosen beneficiary? Was it too much to think that maybe, despite all the reasons to believe the contrary, the Wildcats might just catch a break? Could Northwestern fans, besieged constantly by reminders of their program's historic futility, finally feel the freedom of belief?

The short answer? No.

"It's very tough," Northwestern guard Drew Crawford said.

"Disappointing," forward John Shurna said. "Kind of a tough way to go out."

Wednesday night was Shurna's senior night, an honor he shared with Davide Curletti, Nick Fruendt and Luka Mirkovic. Shurna & Co. are the school's all-time winningest class, one that also set a school record with three consecutive postseason appearances.

Of course, none of those postseasons has been of the NCAA tournament variety, which is why Wednesday night's game was so much more than a disappointing loss, so much more than an emotional senior night spoiled by a 75-73 defeat.

Indeed, the game against Ohio State was one of the biggest in Northwestern's history. That title is fresh, because we said the same exact thing in the wake of Feb. 21's home loss to Michigan. And we could say the same again Saturday, when Northwestern travels to Iowa to play its regular-season finale. At this point, every game Northwestern plays is abnormally important for reasons that go beyond conference record or pride or graduating seniors or even a one-year bubble scenario.

Why? You know why: The Wildcats are still searching for their first-ever NCAA tournament bid. This is the only team in a major conference to never visit the NCAA tournament. You have heard about this ignominious distinction more than a few times in the past few weeks (and months and years) because it's impossible to talk about this program without dwelling on its unique, defining story of woe.

Wednesday night was merely another page in that book. At first, the action looked predictable enough. After a quick six minutes of dominant interior play and hot shooting, a focused and freewheeling Ohio State team -- one that looked vastly different from the weekend's home loss to Wisconsin -- had opened an 18-8 lead. By the five-minute mark, the lead was 30-18.

Just before the half, it was all the way up to 39-26, before Shurna made a 3 to cut the deficit to 10, but no matter. Clearly, the Buckeyes were in control.

Ohio State was moving the ball seamlessly against Northwestern's zone, using skip passes and penetration to find easy first looks. Better yet, when the first looks didn't drop, OSU forwards Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas pounced. Together, they combined for 15 offensive rebounds (and 28 total) and carried the Bucks to an eye-popping offensive rebounding percentage of 62.5 percent.

Northwestern -- for which Shurna, who shoots nearly as many 3s as 2s, counts as an interior player, and a team that plays 6-foot-1 guard David Sobolewski in the baseline of its 1-3-1 zone -- had nothing remotely close to an answer.

"They destroyed us on the backboards," Northwestern coach Bill Carmody said.

His team's only answer was hope: hope that enough 3s went down to stay within striking distance, hope that Ohio State caught a few bad bounces, hope that the game was just close enough to steal in the end. Lo and behold, that's exactly what happened. The Wildcats gradually cut OSU's lead throughout the second half, first to six, then to five, then to four.

And although Ohio State seemed to have an answer each and every time -- an Aaron Craft 3 here, a Sullinger putback there -- the Cats, led by Shurna and a 13-of-27 mark from 3, and aided by said bad bounces (and a huge JerShon Cobb steal), found themselves down by three. With the ball. With 16 seconds to play.

You've probably already seen what happened next. Guard Alex Marcotullio, against the advice of his better angels, launched what felt like a 30-foot 3. Like all great last-second shots, it seemed to hang in the air forever before splashing through the net and sending Welsh-Ryan Arena into convulsions of euphoria and disbelief.

The only problem: There still were 7 seconds on the scoreboard and Thad Matta called a timeout, and before you could realize it -- before Welsh-Ryan could process what was happening -- Craft was sprinting down the court and heaving the ball ahead to Sullinger, who had established the perfect position to quickly turn and score with his right hand, and now there's 3 seconds left, and Shurna is hoisting a half-court shot that hits the front of the rim and misses, and ... wait. What just happened?

A cynical fan -- or an out-and-out jerk -- probably would say Northwestern happened. This is what Northwestern does, especially in recent seasons. It takes its fans to the brink, to the point of ecstatic belief, before revealing some fresh new horror.

Frankly, if the aforementioned cynic said this to you, it'd be pretty difficult to disagree.

But while the short answer above might have been "no," it was impossible to talk to Crawford and Shurna after the game and not sense some lack of emotional weight. Both were positive, even upbeat, or at least as upbeat as a human being can be after what they had just seen. (Before shooting the above video, I cursorily asked Shurna, "How's it going?" His response: "Ha. I've been better." Note to self: Never use that phrase on a dreary Monday morning again.)

"Obviously it's tough," Crawford said, "but we played great down toward the end of the game, and we're all proud of our team. I think we're a resilient bunch, and we'll be ready to go on Saturday."

Maybe Shurna and Crawford are used to all the will-they-or-won't-they talk by now. Maybe they've chosen to ignore it. It was surely no surprise that every question, press-room murmur and speculative amateur bracketologism Wednesday night dwelled on whether this team would be the one to finally, mercifully end college basketball's most infamous streak.

It was the first question Matta faced when he sat down for his postgame news conference: Is Northwestern a tournament team?

"Yeah," Matta said. "Oh yeah. ... I know this. I would hate on Selection Sunday to have Northwestern come across, to have to play them."

Shurna was quizzed about how, with so much pressure and bubble speculation compounding in the final week of the season, his team could rebound. ("Gotta win," he said.) Crawford was asked whether Wednesday's loss "proved" anything to the selection committee about Northwestern's makeup.

"I don't think a loss means too much," he said, flashing a better understanding of the selection process than his inquisitor.

The truth is, a loss doesn't mean much, if anything. The good news, however, is this: Other bubble teams lost Wednesday night, too, and in Joe Lunardi's most recent bracket update, the Wildcats were still listed as the last team in the tournament. Nothing is guaranteed, but in Northwestern's case, that's a good thing. The Cats might not be safely in the tournament, the way they would have been had Shurna's final prayer been answered, had Matta and and Craft and Sullinger not so ruthlessly executed their final four-second game winner. But this group isn't obviously out of the field, either.

"Had we won the game, it would have been a great win for us," Crawford said. "But that's not really going to keep us down at all. We're excited to finish this season strong. And it starts in practice tomorrow."

And so another five days -- or 11 days -- of bubble speculation will continue. Can this star-crossed program get it done? Can Shurna go out on something more than disappointment? Can Northwestern fans, against all reason and rationale and evidence to the contrary, dare to believe?

The short answer, at least Wednesday night, was no.

But the long answer? Let's wait and see.

After several crucial bubble games Wednesday night, here's Joe Lunardi's brief update to Bracketology:

NOTABLE
-- Mississippi State, South Florida and Texas stay in field with wins
-- Northwestern remains “last team in” despite loss
-- Colorado State (in) and Miami (out) trade places on bubble
-- Temple clinches A-10 regular-season title

LAST FOUR IN
South Florida
Texas
Colorado State
Northwestern

FIRST FOUR OUT
Xavier
VCU
NC State
Miami

NEXT FOUR OUT
Oregon
Colorado
Saint Joseph's
Dayton

Also considered: Illinois, New Mexico State, UCF

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Pac-12 (3)
West Coast (3)
Atlantic 10 (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)