ESPN Men's Basketball

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Breaking down No. 12 seed South Florida’s 58-44 victory over No. 5 seed Temple on Friday night in the second round of the NCAA tournament Midwest Regional at Bridgestone Arena:

Overview: Nobody uglies up a game better than South Florida, and the Bulls did it again Friday after smothering California on Wednesday night in their first-round game. South Florida set a Big East record this season by allowing just 56.8 points per game. Temple was fortunate to get to 40 after being beaten, battered and bruised by a South Florida defense that is relentless. There's no such thing as a good look against the Bulls, especially anywhere near the goal.

Amazingly, the Bulls were able to win despite making just three of 27 shots from the field (11.1 percent) in the first half. Of course, the Owls got off only 13 shots in the first half and couldn't take advantage of South Florida's cold shooting.

South Florida, which trailed 19-15 at the half, opened the second half with an 11-2 run. A 3-point spree fueled by back-to-back treys from Toarlyn Fitzpatrick gave the Bulls a 14-point lead, and they’re simply too good defensively to lose that kind of lead.

Turning point: It looked like Temple might be on the verge of a comeback after trailing by as many as 14 points with 10:34 to play. The Owls pulled within 41-38 on Ramone Moore’s 3-pointer, and the momentum was shifting in their direction. On the next possession, South Florida’s Victor Rudd Jr. found himself out top with the shot clock winding down and fired up a 3-pointer that banked in off the glass with 5:11 remaining.

Key player: Rudd scored 17 points and was 4-of-6 from 3-point range. He had 13 of his points in the second half and made all three of his treys after the break.

Key stat: With both Ohio and South Florida winning Friday, that means either a No. 12 or a No. 13 seed will advance to the Sweet 16 from the Midwest Regional.

Miscellaneous: South Florida now has evened its all-time NCAA tournament record at 2-2 after coming into this one 0-2. ... The Bulls were 6-of-8 from 3-point land in the second half. ... In their two tournament games this year, the Bulls have allowed a total of 98 points. They held Cal to 54 on Wednesday in Dayton. ... The Owls (24-8) now have lost in their opening game of the NCAA tournament in four of their past five appearances.

What’s next: South Florida (22-13) advances to the third round of the NCAA tournament and will take on No. 13 seed Ohio on Sunday. The Bobcats defeated Michigan in the earlier game Friday night.

After a relatively mild third day of NCAA tournament action Thursday, does Friday promise more excitement? Close games? A buzzer-beater? Something?

Beggars can't be choosers, but we can be hopers. As we pray to the basketball gods for all the tournament has to offer, here's what you should keep an eye on as Friday unfolds.

Five best games:

No. 8 Creighton vs. No. 9 Alabama: Arguably the most intriguing stylistic clash in the entire round of 64, this one puts Creighton's all-offense attack up against one of the nation's most athletic and physical defensive teams. The Bluejays' offense and the Tide's defense both rank among the nation's 10 best per-possession in their respective categories, but the inverse is also true: Creighton's defense (ranked No. 180 in kenpom) and Alabama's offense (ranked No. 112) serve as each team's obvious weakness. It's unstoppable force/immovable object stuff, and it should be fascinating to watch.

No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 9 Saint Louis: It's not uncommon to see a team that looks considerably better than its NCAA tournament seed. It is uncommon to see two in the same second-round game, but that will be the case when the streaking Tigers and the defensively stalwart Billikens match up Friday. Both teams are ranked among kenpom.com's top 15 in overall adjusted efficiency. Memphis boasts a hyper-talented lineup led by forward Will Barton; Saint Louis has the benefit of Rick Majerus' tried-and-true defensive style and his strategic tournament superiority. If Saint Louis can keep Barton in check, and find a way to keep forward Tarik Black off the offensive glass (no easy feat, that), it may be able to hold off a Memphis team capable of a very deep run in this field.

No. 6 Cincinnati vs. No. 11 Texas: The Longhorns limped into the tournament, but as a team with talented guards -- like leading scorer J'Covan Brown and steady freshman Myck Kabongo -- and one that challenged the top teams in the Big 12 throughout the season (usually coming up just short), they represent a fantastic value as a No. 11 seed. Cincinnati forward Yancy Gates will have to take advantage of a favorable matchup with Clint Chapman in the post. If he doesn't, Texas has the chops to hang around in this game for 40 minutes -- and maybe even finish with a win.

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Virginia: Before we crown Creighton-Alabama with the "most stylistically fascinating" superlative, let's reserve some consideration for Florida-Virginia. The Cavaliers play a drastically slow, packed-in defensive style. The Gators play a spread-out offense that relies primarily on 3-point shooting. Fortunately, they have the players for it, including guard Kenny Boynton, who has put together a quietly remarkable season launching the basketball from range. But Florida's lack of defense leaves it vulnerable if the shooters go cold, and UVa will look to take advantage on the other end.

No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 Purdue: Though the Boilermakers would never admit it, they may have breathed a sigh of relief when they saw their second-round tournament matchup. Don't get me wrong: Saint Mary's is for real, an excellent offensive team led by the peerless point guard play of veteran Matthew Dellavedova. But the Gaels don't have much of an interior presence, which is the one personnel area in which the Boilermakers -- who rely on the guard play of Lewis Jackson, Ryne Smith and outside-in forward Robbie Hummel -- are legitimately vulnerable. Expect a lot of fluid motion offense, a lot of outside shots and a close, hard-fought game in Omaha.

No. 5 Temple vs. No. 12 South Florida: More stylistic clash potential! Take three! The Owls -- for years a grind-it-out defensive team under coach Fran Dunphy -- have flipped the script in 2012, morphing into a high-flying offensive juggernaut led by guards Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt. South Florida, on the other hand, looks a bit like Temple used to ... but even uglier and slower and practically impossible to score against.

Upset alert:

No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 16 LIU Brooklyn: Just kidding! All due respect to the Blackbirds, it ain't happening. (Just had to make sure you will still paying attention is all.)

No. 3 Georgetown vs. No. 14 Belmont: If America has a favorite sleeper candidate this season -- other than VCU and the now-lamented Long Beach State 49ers -- it is Rick Byrd's Belmont team. The Bruins were a sleeper favorite last season, too, but they caught a bad matchup in the second round in Wisconsin. They're back with much the same team this season, and laptops love them; Belmont ranks No. 9 in LRMC, No. 23 overall in the kenpom.com rankings and No. 35 overall in the BPI. But they've got another tough matchup in Georgetown, which plays a stifling, lanky zone defense that makes everything difficult for its opponents. But if Scott Saunders and Mick Hedgepeth can handle Georgetown center Henry Sims, the Bruins are more than capable of knocking off the Hoyas -- and sticking around for a while, too.

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Lehigh: Do I think this will happen? No. Duke has too much on the perimeter to be shut down by this Lehigh bunch. But could it? Sure. The Blue Devils beat a lot of good teams this season, which helped them to a No. 2 seed, but by per-possession efficiency standards Duke is easily the weakest of the No. 2 seeds. Lehigh, on the other hand, is not your typical No. 15 seed, and it has a secret weapon -- guard C.J. McCollum, one of the nation's most underrated scorers, who at the very least will give Duke's occasionally suspect guard defenders something to think about for all 40 minutes.

No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 Detroit: Speaking of deceptive 15-seeds, Detroit might be the most talented 15-seed in the history of the tournament. That's because guard Ray McCallum Jr. -- son of coach Ray McCallum Sr. -- turned down a host of elite programs to play for his dad two years ago, while transfer forward Eli Holman, a former Indiana prospect, patrols the middle with more athleticism than you usually see from Horizon League forwards. Kansas should win this game but the Titans have talent and they'll definitely give it a go.

No. 11 NC State vs. No. 6 San Diego State: San Diego State has achieved in remarkable fashion this season, relative to its talent, but will the run come to an end Friday? There's reason to think so: NC State enters the tournament playing the best basketball of its season (it dispatched Virginia and nearly took down UNC in the ACC tournament last weekend), and the young Wolfpack will be eager to prove they are already ready for the bright lights.

Players to watch:

Doug McDermott, Creighton: You know the deal by now: McDermott is at once one of the nation's most productive and most efficient scorers, and his twin abilities to turn on both shoulders in the post or step outside and knock down the 3 makes him a lethal offensive option. But he'll have to be extra-good Friday, as Alabama's JaMychal Green is one of the few defenders in the country able to guard McDermott both inside and out.

Tu Holloway, Xavier: It wasn't pretty, but Xavier made it to the tournament. Now what? This team is still talented, particularly on the perimeter, and if Holloway and running mate Mark Lyons can summon some of what led them to clutch comeback wins over Vanderbilt and Purdue before their brawl with Cincinnati, they could be an interesting out in the West region.

J'Covan Brown, Texas: Brown is always scoring. The question is whether he's getting his points efficiently, and whether the Longhorns' offense is conducive to scores in the flow of the offense. If they are, they can hang with Cincinnati.

Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure: In the Bonnies' A-10 title win over Xavier, Nicholson dropped 26 points, 14 rebounds and 8 -- yes, eight -- blocks. He's an NBA talent with the body to match. But will Nicholson be able to dominate the Seminoles' physical frontcourt? With Bernard James lined up across from him, this will the most difficult matchup Nicholson has seen all season.

Mike Scott, Virginia: If the Cavaliers are going to drop No. 7-seeded Florida in the second round Friday, they're going to have to get a massive effort from Scott, the dominant focal point of their slow, cautious offense. Scott has been hyper-efficient on the offensive end all season, but he could struggle against Florida forward Patric Young, one of the few big men in the nation with the athleticism and height to check Scott effectively. And if Scott doesn't score, UVa's chances are probably slim.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Now we turn our attention to Friday's evening session in Music City:

No. 4 Michigan (24-9) vs. No. 13 Ohio (27-7), 7:20 p.m. ET

What to watch: Anybody who’s watched John Beilein’s teams play offense at Michigan, and West Virginia before that, knows how frustrating it can be defending his system in the half-court. The Wolverines are going to shoot 3-pointers and layups and not a lot else. They’re also relentless with their high picks and backdoor cuts to the basket and don’t turn it over much -- only 10.9 turnovers per game. But in Ohio University, Michigan gets a team that doesn’t mind grinding it out on defense. The Bobcats like to trap and really challenge teams with their on-the-ball pressure. They’re forcing 17.7 turnovers per game and defend the 3-point shot as well as anybody in the country. Opponents are shooting just 29.6 percent from 3-point range against the Bobcats, who are 60-19 under John Groce when they hold opponents under 70 points.

Who to watch: Michigan point guard Trey Burke was named Big Ten Freshman of the Year by the media. He leads the Wolverines in scoring (14.8 points) and assists (4.6). He broke Michigan’s 27-year-old freshman record for assists in a season and has 151 entering the Ohio game; Gary Grant had the old record, dishing out 140 assists during the 1984-85 season. Burke had been pretty good at taking care of the ball until the 77-55 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament semifinals, when he turned it over eight times. He also shot just 1-of-11 from the field in that game, so you know he’s been bouncing off the walls to get back onto the court.

Why to watch: Losing to Ohio State in anything is a nightmare for Michigan. So it goes without saying that the 22-point loss to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten tournament still stings. The only thing that could make it worse would be losing to Ohio University in the NCAA tournament. The good news for Michigan fans is that the Wolverines are 8-0 in games following losses this season. But Ohio comes into this game having won eight of its past nine games. “We’re playing with confidence right now. We’re playing together as a team," Ohio junior guard D.J. Cooper said. "We’re playing pretty good defense. That’s what we’ve been relying on all year. We’re going to stick together and stay together through the tournament."

What they’re saying: “This is Ohio versus Michigan, and it’s about two teams competing and that want the same thing, and that’s to survive and advance. Every guy on our team needs to be focused on their role to help Ohio do well.” --Ohio University coach John Groce

“I think everybody is in that same boat. All 68 teams are trying to get to that point where it just becomes magical for them, and it’s so much fun if they’re successful in that dream.” --Michigan coach John Beilein

Around the rim: Michigan is 11-0 this season when sophomore guard Tim Hardaway Jr. shoots 50 percent from the field or better. ... Ohio junior guard Cooper is one of two Division I players over the past 12 years to have averaged 15 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists and 2 steals over an entire season. ... Cooper, who’s left-handed, recorded the first triple-double in Ohio history earlier this season in a victory at Portland when he scored 14 points, pulled down 10 rebounds and handed out 10 assists. ... Cooper isn’t a great shooter. In fact, he’s shooting just 34.8 percent from the field this season. ... The Wolverines are 18-0 this season when leading at the half.

No. 5 Temple (24-7) vs. No. 12 South Florida (21-13), 9:50 p.m. ET

What to watch: Temple has won 13 of its past 15 games and sports a spiffy 24-7 record. The Owls are no stranger to the NCAA tournament, either: This is their fifth consecutive appearance. What they’d like to change is how long they hang around in the postseason. They haven’t won more than one game in the NCAA tournament since 2001, when they advanced to the Elite Eight under then-coach John Chaney. It’s Fran Dunphy’s show now, and the Owls have a veteran team built to make a deep run. They boast one of the more potent backcourts in college basketball and start three seniors and two juniors. All five starters average at least 9.1 points per game.

Who to watch: Temple senior guard Ramone Moore ranks second in the Atlantic 10 in scoring at 17.7 points per game. He’s one of three players on Temple’s team to have made 50 or more 3-pointers this season. Not only that, but Khalif Wyatt, Juan Fernandez and Moore shoot better than 38 percent from 3-point range. The 6-foot-4 Moore has scored in double figures in all but two games this season.

Why to watch: Forget jet lag. South Florida’s players insist they were ready to play after knocking off California in the first round late Wednesday night in Dayton, Ohio. The Bulls caught an early flight to Nashville on Thursday and said the short turnaround won’t be a problem. It was only a year ago that VCU came out of the first round and made it all the way to the Final Four. Plus, South Florida coach Stan Heath said, it’s not all bad to have already played a game. “We got our feet wet a little bit and got out there and maybe worked out the kinks and the nervousness and all those different things," Heath said. "The other team is a little more well-rested, may have a little more energy, but may not have the same rhythm that we may have from the previous game.”

What they’re saying: “We have to come out aggressive. They do a great job defensively. I mean, they held California to 13 points yesterday in the first half, which is great. But we’ve got to come out and play our basketball, got to make the extra pass, hit the open shots … and they don’t let you speed them up. They do a great job of getting their shots and slowing the game down.” --Temple guard Ramone Moore

“I said in Dayton that playing defense has kind of been our foundation. It really becomes a problem for a lot of teams. A lot of teams pride themselves on scoring 80 points or in the 70s, and they feel like if they can get to 80 points or in the 70s that they have a good chance of winning. For us, we feel like if we can keep them below the 60s that we have a good chance of winning.” --South Florida forward Ron Anderson Jr.

Around the rim: South Florida set the Big East Conference scoring defense record this season by allowing just 56.8 points per game. The Bulls have held 31 of their 34 opponents under 70 points. ... Anderson transferred to South Florida from Kansas State following the 2009 season. His other finalist when trying to decide where to continue his college basketball career was Temple. ... Heath said his players were wired following the 65-54 victory over Cal on Wednesday night. “I know the guys didn’t sleep much last night. They were watching 'SportsCenter' at 2 o’clock in the morning. They were watching each other’s dunks and getting excited. I was trying to put them to bed,” Heath joked. ... Dunphy said he heard someone say that going against South Florida’s defense was “like going to get a root canal.” ... Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin, who faced South Florida in Big East play, said what makes the Bulls so good defensively is how well they rotate, and when they do, the guy rotating over is anywhere from 6-7 to 6-11. ... Temple will be joining the Big East in football next season and then in all sports in 2013-14.

1. The Atlantic 10 needs to go on the offensive because it could potentially get poached by the MWC-CUSA merger. Charlotte is ripe for the picking since the 49ers are going to Division I football. The A-10 actually would be better if it was slimmed down by a few teams from 14. But losing Temple for 2013-14 isn’t the answer. The A-10 could definitely use a marquee program in the footprint (like VCU or Old Dominion).

2. Louisville coach Rick Pitino was right back in the fall and his influence with John Marinatto must have paid off. Adding Temple and Memphis for football is out of necessity. But the Big East had to add two established, tradition-rich basketball programs. Everyone in the Big East should fully expect Temple and Memphis to be fulltime players near the top of the conference for the foreseeable future.

3. Weber State’s Damian Lillard and Iona’s Scott Machado may end up being the top two playmaker guards in the NBA draft. Yet, neither one will be in the NCAA tournament after Lillard’s Wildcats were knocked out by host Montana in the Big Sky tournament title game. Machado lost to Fairfield in the MAAC tournament. The NCAAs will have plenty of stars, but not having Lillard and Machado on this stage is a shame for those that hadn’t seen either play this season.

1. Atlantic 10 commissioner Bernadette McGlade said Temple needs to honor its one-year exit agreement with the league, just like the Big East has demanded its teams must stay to fulfill their commitments (although the conference a $20 million buyout from West Virginia). McGlade said Temple would owe one million dollars for leaving with a year's notice, and two million if departing before two. Of course, Temple could pulls its football program out of the MAC and keep basketball and others out of the A-10 for a year. The Big East is more desperate for a football team for the fall of 2012 than it is for hoops.

2. This is West Virginia's final Big East tournament. Syracuse and Pitt are probably playing in one more in 2013. Memphis, UCF, Houston, SMU and who knows, maybe Temple, will be in the Big East tournament in 2014. “It sickens me to be quite honest," said Hall of Fame coach and former Georgetown coach John Thompson Jr. “It’s not healthy to lose the rivalries. It’s not what the philosophy of this league was formed.’’

3. Marquette associate coach Tony Benford will be in play for the Southern Illinois coaching job and could also be at SMU if that job opens. Kentucky assistant Orlando Antigua will likely be on the list at Rhode Island. Late Monday, the game saw one of the classiest coaches retire when Charlie Coles decided to step down from Miami of Ohio.

1. If Bruce Weber has coached his last game at Assembly Hall in Champaign then the Illini fans should find time to give him the praise he deserves for putting everything he had into the job. Weber won’t have to work after getting a $3.9 million buyout, but he could be a huge help to Chris Lowery at Southern Illinois if the Salukis can’t afford to push Lowery out in Carbondale. Weber’s ego is in check enough to help a friend, rather than think he’s too good for such a task.

2. Virginia should be safe, but it’s hard not to look at the Cavaliers and see a team that is in a tenuous situation. The Cavaliers couldn’t close out Florida State Thursday night at home as Ian Miller hit a 3-pointer with less than a second left. Virginia has lost four of six games and closes out at Maryland. Lose that game and fall in the first game of the ACC tournament and the Cavaliers may give the selection committee pause. The Cavaliers have had injuries yet again and are a tourney-worthy team for 38-39 minutes, but haven’t been able to close out the better teams in the ACC.

3. The C-USA/MWC merger needs teams and the first one on the list was going to be Temple, according to East Carolina athletic director Terry Holland. But the Owls, which would have likely been only a football member, are likely headed toward the Big East. The merger is about football, but Marshall and East Carolina desperately need a team in the Eastern Time Zone and the natural choice is Charlotte for all sports with the assumption that the startup football program can be ready to compete in the near future.

After several crucial bubble games Wednesday night, here's Joe Lunardi's brief update to Bracketology:

NOTABLE
-- Mississippi State, South Florida and Texas stay in field with wins
-- Northwestern remains “last team in” despite loss
-- Colorado State (in) and Miami (out) trade places on bubble
-- Temple clinches A-10 regular-season title

LAST FOUR IN
South Florida
Texas
Colorado State
Northwestern

FIRST FOUR OUT
Xavier
VCU
NC State
Miami

NEXT FOUR OUT
Oregon
Colorado
Saint Joseph's
Dayton

Also considered: Illinois, New Mexico State, UCF

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (10)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Pac-12 (3)
West Coast (3)
Atlantic 10 (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)

Click here to read our afternoon recap. Now back to the lecture at hand, which comes in three parts:

The Rivalry

No. 2 Syracuse 71, Connecticut 69: One of the many things to love about this Syracuse team -- besides its great zone defense and incredible depth and talent and length and pretty much everything besides defensive rebounding -- is how well it handles close games. Since the Jan. 21 loss at Notre Dame, Syracuse has taken respective best shots from Cincinnati, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, South Florida and now at UConn, and each time the Orange have either pulled away late or made the key stop down the stretch to preserve the narrow win. It's a real skill, and it isn't entirely intangible; when you have a defense this good, you tend to get a lot of stops, and there's no reason why that wouldn't be true in the final minutes of any given game, too. But however you quantify it, the Orange win close games. Such traits tend to come in handy in March.

As for Connecticut? While the Huskies didn't get the win, they appear to be rounding into form, or at least starting to figure a few things out. UConn had its fair share of issues with Syracuse's zone, and there were plenty of bad shots to be had, but the Huskies were much more balanced (four players finished in double figures, while Ryan Boatright and Shabazz Napier combined for 13 assists) and competent on both ends of the floor in the second half. Unless it suddenly begins shooting the ball from outside at a much higher clip, this team probably has a ceiling. But there are plenty of realistic improvements to be made. Even better, many of them appear to be in progress. Let's not bury this team just yet.

The Upsets

Purdue 75, No. 13 Michigan 61: When Purdue guard Ryne Smith was asked what he thought about guard Kelsey Barlow's dismissal from the team last week, he was direct, even curt: "Addition by subtraction," Smith said. Apparently he was right. Whatever the reason, Purdue played its best game of the season Saturday at the most important time, containing Michigan's outside shooters and slowly stretching a second-half lead thanks to the heady play of point guard Lewis Jackson, forward Robbie Hummel and, most importantly, guard Terone Johnson, who scored a career-high 22 points and made a handful of key plays down the stretch, including two big and-1 finishes around the rim. Purdue is an unconventional team with no true post presence; the Boilermakers rely on Hummel's outside-in versatility and an extended, guard-oriented style. This makes them a great matchup for Michigan, and, in their own way, a dangerous team.

In any case, Purdue can now feel entirely safe about its at-large NCAA tournament chances. Beating Michigan at home -- the Wolverines' first home loss of the season -- is most definitely a signature victory. And it couldn't have come at a better time.

TCU 83, No. 21 New Mexico 64: Let's hear it for TCU! A round of applause is most definitely in order. At this time in 2011, the Horned Frogs were in the midst of a season-ending 13-game losing streak, en route to an 11-22 finish. This season is an entirely different story: TCU is playing its best basketball down the stretch, having won four of its past five (and eight in a row at home) and toppling ranked UNLV and New Mexico and a good Colorado State squad in the process. The key: great 3-point shooting. The Horned Frogs lead the league in long-range makes in conference play, and they're undefeated at home as a result. What a difference a year makes.

In the meantime ... um, what happened to New Mexico? Last Saturday, we watched in near-awe as the Lobos thoroughly dominated UNLV, which came just a few days after a 10-point win at San Diego State. Steve Alford's team, once a relatively unheralded efficiency darling with few good wins to show for it, looked set to run away with the Mountain West and make a deep run into March. Since then, the Lobos are 0-2 and are now in a three-way tie. A loss at Colorado State makes some sense; we know the Rams are tough, particularly at home. And this is not to take away from TCU, which (as you just read above) is giving everyone more than they bargained for in February, particularly in their own building. But a 19-point blowout loss? Isn't this the team that just rolled UNLV in the Pit and moved to 8-2 in the league? It's kind of weird, right?

Georgia 76, No. 11 Florida 62: This is an upset, of course, but I'm not sure we should be all that surprised. Frankly, I'm not sure if a Florida loss should ever truly catch us off guard. Don't get me wrong: The Gators are good. But they're a specific kind of good. When their steady diet of 3s are falling, they can shoot opponents off the floor before said opponents even have a chance to catch their breath. But if the shots aren't going down, Florida has no Plan B. Patric Young is the only true post presence, and his offensive game is still a work in progress (and he's still underutilized as a scoring threat to boot). The Gators' defense -- which ranks fifth in opponents' points per possession in SEC play, No. 10 in opponents' 3-point field goal percentage and No. 10 in block rate -- still isn't good enough to hold opponents in check when the shots clanging off the iron and the opponents start turning long rebounds into secondary breaks and easy buckets. Florida might yet get there on the defensive end, but it isn't yet. If this UF team has a lower ceiling than it should, well, that's why.

The Bubble Specials

Alabama 67, Mississippi State 50: It was instinctively easy to write off the Crimson Tide when coach Anthony Grant suspended Tony Mitchell and JaMychal Green; it was easy to predict a late collapse, even a fall off the bubble, for a team whose two leading scorers would be missing such important games down the stretch. Instead, the Crimson Tide keep, well, rolling. They've now won three in a row and prevented any hint of a collapse. Mississippi State, on the other hand, appears to be doing exactly that: The Bulldogs are collapsing. This is the Bulldogs' fifth consecutive defeat, a stretch that has included some good basketball (in the near-miss vs. Kentucky this week) but also some baffling losses (the loss at Auburn especially). It's no stretch to say Mississippi State -- which for much of the season looked like a tourney near-lock -- could wind up missing the tournament after all. The Bulldogs are, after all, 6-8 and tied with rival Ole Miss in the SEC standings. Ouch.

Northwestern 67, Penn State 66: Breathe a big ol' sigh of relief, Northwestern fans: In the chase for their first NCAA tournament appearance in school history, the Wildcats remain very much alive. Senior forward John Shurna made the game-winning free throws with just 2.6 seconds remaining, giving Bill Carmody his first win in State College since 2002. Big challenges still lie ahead: Ohio State comes to town on Wednesday, followed by next weekend's season-ender at Iowa, a team that just knocked off Indiana and Wisconsin in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. But for now, some minor rejoicing is in order. Northwestern's tourney hopes are still very real.

Rutgers 77, Seton Hall 72 (OT): Let's not take Seton Hall off the bubble just yet, eh? The Pirates got a great win over Georgetown this week, one that could have firmed up a previously shaky at-large profile. All Seton Hall needed to do the rest of the way was avoid bad losses. Well, losing to a young, 13-16 Rutgers team at home is just that. Next weekend, the Hall travels to DePaul. If the Pirates lose there, all the good vibes from the emphatic Georgetown victory will have almost entirely faded from the picture.

VCU 89, George Mason 77: First things first: Thanks to Drexel's one-point win at Old Dominion on Saturday afternoon, VCU's win over George Mason won't give them a share of the CAA title this season. Bummer, sure, but the Rams would surely settle for a spot in the NCAA tournament, something to which they're at least a little closer after this victory today. As a league, the Colonial's top teams (Drexel, VCU and GMU) didn't get quality nonconference wins (VCU's best came against South Florida, for example), so any at-large consideration will have to come from separation at the top and perhaps a pair of deep runs for both Drexel and VCU in the CAA tournament. A win here was a must, and Shaka Smart's team got it, behind Bradford Burgess' career-high 31 points.

Dayton 76, UMass 43: A home loss to UMass can't be called "bad," but for a team like Dayton -- which is desperately scrapping for a spot in the NCAA tournament -- it could have been disastrous. Instead, the opposite happened: UD won, and won big, looking very much like one of the A-10's best teams and a squad worthy of a tourney bid in the process. We'll see how the Flyers finish up, but if they're one of the last four in, they might just be one of the play-in game candidates, which are held in -- you guessed it -- Dayton!

Saint Joseph's 82, No. 22 Temple 72: Speaking of somewhat fringe Atlantic 10 tournament hopefuls, the A-10 can't offer a bubble team a better shot at a marquee win than Temple on its own floor late in the season, but the Hawks still had to overcome Fran Dunphy's typically peerless bunch, which had won its previous 11 games and 13 in the 15-game stretch beginning with its Jan. 4 victory over Duke. Phil Martelli's team is now 9-6 in the league and 19-11 overall, and it added the one thing it desperately needed to its profile: A legitimate top-25 RPI win. Temple is most definitely that.

Penn 55, Harvard 54: Just when you think it's time to plan a long-awaited Harvard hoops coronation, Penn's Zack Rosen comes along, scores 20 points, makes a huge jumper down the stretch and ices two game-winning free throws in the final 30 seconds. And all of a sudden the Ivy League race is legitimately up for grabs with both of these teams having two losses. (Another one-game playoff for the Crimson? Oh boy.) As an at-large entity, Harvard is still in decent shape, but its profile isn't so strong that it can afford to lose at either Columbia or Cornell in its final two games, lose out on the Ivy auto-bid, and still feel safe about being picked to join the group of 37 at-large teams. Big days ahead for Tommy Amaker's team.

Washington 59, Washington State 55: For the first 10 or so minutes of the first half, it looked like Wazzu was going to hand its in-state opponent the type of loss that would severely damage Washington's at-large chances. But the Huskies fought back and, as the AP report notes, won the game's most important battle -- at the charity stripe: "Ultimately, the game came down to free throws. WSU (14-14, 6-10) went 11 of 12 to keep the game tied at 28-all despite shooting 27 percent in the first half. In the second half, the Cougars shot 6 of 20 from the free throw line, while the Huskies, who only went 2 of 5 in the first half, finished 17 of 24." The win keeps Washington on the right side of the bubble for now, but UW's marginal profile might not be able to survive a loss at either USC or UCLA going away.

Xavier 65, Richmond 57: Kenny Frease's season highs in both points (19) and rebounds (14) helped carry Xavier to an ugly but ultimately victorious Saturday. A loss here would have kicked Xavier off the bubble for good and almost certainly, barring an upset in the A-10 tournament, ended Chris Mack's 100 percent NCAA tournament hit rate in his XU tenure. Instead, the Musketeers live to fight another day.

No. 21 San Diego State 74, Colorado State 66: The Rams pass at least two NCAA tournament bubble tests: The RPI/SOS numbers are great, and they sure do look like a tournament team. But will that be enough? A win in Viejas Arena would have provided a tidy bookend to this week's huge victory over New Mexico, but the loss isn't a huge deal. Colorado State, which is undefeated at home in Mountain West play, hosts UNLV in Fort Collins in just three days' time. Win that one and the Rams are probably set.

Saint Joseph's snapped visiting Temple's 11-game winning streak, beating the No. 22 Owls 82-72.

Editor’s note: Jay Bilas breaks down Missouri-Kansas in today’s Weekend Watch. Andy Katz offers a dozen more games to keep an eye on this weekend.

Friday

Marquette at West Virginia (9 ET, ESPN): West Virginia has to win this game, right? The Mountaineers have lost six of their past eight games. The only wins were over lower-level teams (Providence and Pitt) on the road. Marquette has been on a tear of late and may have the Big East Player of the Year in Jae Crowder or Darius Johnson-Odom.

Saturday

Vanderbilt at Kentucky (noon ET, CBS): Kentucky has three games left to finish off an undefeated SEC regular season. No offense to Georgia, but the Cats should take care of the Bulldogs. If UK takes out Vandy, the only obstacle left is a game at Florida to end the regular season. If Kentucky can accomplish an unblemished mark, it would go down as one of the most impressive regular seasons in coach John Calipari’s career.

Iowa State at Kansas State (1:30 ET, ESPN3): Wins at Baylor and Missouri have changed the complexion of Kansas State’s season. The Wildcats have finally finished games by playing smart in the final possessions. Iowa State has a tough slate to finish the season with games at K-State and Missouri and then hosting Baylor. Not an easy road for a team that wants to wrap up an at-large bid.

North Carolina at Virginia (4 ET, ESPN): UVa has had injury issues and hasn’t been able to find consistency against the league’s elite (Duke and North Carolina). But the Cavs have a shot to re-establish themselves. This could turn into an ACC Player of the Year-type game as Tyler Zeller of the Tar Heels matches up with Mike Scott of the Cavs. UVa must ensure that it controls the tempo to have a chance.

Mississippi State at Alabama (6 ET, ESPN): Mississippi State has stumbled down the stretch and has no momentum going into the SEC tournament. The Bulldogs have lost to the bottom of the SEC and now to Kentucky at the top. Meanwhile, Alabama has done a tremendous job, despite player suspensions, to be in the hunt for an NCAA tournament berth. The win at Arkansas was one of the more impressive for the Tide this season.

George Mason at VCU (6 ET, ESPN2): George Mason was going to be in position to possibly catch Drexel and win the conference. But an overtime loss at Northeastern has pushed the Patriots into a second-place tie with VCU. The winner will get the No. 2 seed in the CAA tournament and potentially set up for a final matchup against Drexel.

Temple at Saint Joseph’s (7 ET, ESPNU): Temple has emerged as the class of the A-10. St. Joe’s had some fleeting hopes of getting a bid, but the Hawks lost at home to Richmond and scored only 49 points in the process. This is now a must-win for them. This is a huge rivalry game but the toughness of the Owls should prevail.

Penn at Harvard (7 ET, ESPN3): If Harvard gets by Princeton on Friday night, a win against Penn could give the Crimson a share of the Ivy League title and a chance to clinch it outright the following Friday at Columbia. Harvard is trying to get to the NCAAs for the first time since 1946.

Syracuse at Connecticut (9 ET, ESPN): The Huskies have new life after Shabazz Napier’s 3-point heave went in to beat Villanova on Monday night. The Orange have been as good, if not better, on the road than at home -- other than at Notre Dame. Syracuse should dominate the bench scoring. The Huskies have a chance if Andre Drummond and Alex Oriakhi can win the post, and Napier and Ryan Boatright can get into the zone with floaters to score. UConn is in desperate mode to get this win.

Sunday

Wisconsin at Ohio State (4 ET, CBS): The Badgers lost at Iowa on Thursday night and now have to go to Ohio State? Yikes. Iowa let Wisconsin back in the game, but then the Badgers couldn’t finish and lost by one. OSU, save the game against Michigan State, has been as dominant at home as any team in the country. The Badgers have to find a way to score and avoid the droughts that can decimate their chances of pulling off an upset like this one.

California at Colorado (5:30 ET, FSN): Colorado had a chance to make some noise down the stretch in the Pac-12, but losing at home to Stanford took some of the energy out of this game. The Buffaloes had overachieved to that point. Cal needs to get a sweep of the mountain area to win the Pac-12 regular-season title, assuming Washington doesn’t stumble.

Florida State at Miami (6 ET, ESPNU): The Seminoles lost their shot to win the ACC regular-season title by dropping a home game to Duke. Miami desperately needs this game to prove to the selection committee that it is tourney-worthy. This game will have ACC tournament seeding implications as well.

The Atlantic 10 moved up to No. 7 and the Big Ten increased its human rating in ESPN Stats and Info’s weekly college basketball rankings.

For a complete recap of how we rank the conferences, click here.

The Atlantic 10 jumped ahead of the Missouri Valley Conference, largely because of the respect the conference is getting from the computers. The A-10 does not have a team ranked in either of the human polls, but according to Ken Pomeroy’s ratings the conference has three teams in the top 50 and eight teams rated in the top 100 in the nation.

Temple is the Atlantic 10 team that is closest to being ranked (26th in votes in the AP poll and 27th in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll) but Saint Louis is the highest-rated team according the computers. The Billikens are ranked 10th in the nation according to both Kenpom.com and ESPN’s new College Basketball Power Index.

The Big Ten has been atop the rankings all season and trails the Big 12 this week by only a few percentage points in human bonus. The Big Ten’s human bonus increased from 12.9 percent last week to 17.3 percent this week and the conference now has five teams ranked in the top 20 in the nation in both polls.

Michigan State became the second Big Ten team in the top 10 after its big road win at Ohio State on Saturday while Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana each went undefeated over the past week.

After moving up three spots in last week’s rankings, the Ivy League dropped back to 14 this week. The main team carrying the Ivy League, Harvard, lost its first conference game on Saturday and dropped out of both Top 25 polls.

Next week’s rankings could see some major movement after Sears BracketBusters this weekend. There will be 71 games over two days, including 13 games televised on ESPN Networks. The event is highlighted by Wichita State-Davidson, Nevada-Iona and a matchup of top-25 teams when Saint Mary’s travels to Murray State.

College hoops polls might be inconsequential noise, but that doesn't make the arguments any less fun. In that spirit, I present the creatively named Poll Thoughts, which you can expect every Monday until the season is over. In case you missed it, Jason King filled in admirably during my constant travel last week. Gracias, Jason.

I'll admit it: This has not been a particularly engaging season for the Poll Thoughts. There just hasn't been much in the way of "controversy." Controversy is in scare quotes because it's actually impossible for the ESPN/USA Today or Associated Press polls to be controversial. For something to be controversial, it has to actually matter, and the polls -- as veterans of this space already know -- do not matter. They're helpful guidebooks, snapshots for casual fans, and decent indicators of national perception. But their relationship with reality, let alone rigor, is tenuous at best.

Still, the polls have done a mostly good job this season. It's hard to remember a time when I looked at one of the coaches' polls and was totally blown away by its stupidity. Until -- drum roll, please -- today.

How on earth is Wichita State not ranked?! And this is why. The Wichita State Shockers are 22-4 overall and 13-2 in the Missouri Valley Conference. This weekend, they achieved that record (and sole possession of first-place in a quality league's standings) by absolutely drubbing the previously ranked Creighton Bluejays, 89-68, in a game that was never particularly close or competitive. On Saturday, as my roommate and I were marveling at the scores baked in the TV viewing in ESPN and Samsung's built-in Scorecenter app,* my roommate looked at the Wichita State-Creighton score and asked me whether Wichita State was any good. "They are," I said. "Really good." Would they be ranked on Monday? "Oh, no question. Probably should have been already, but they'll be in the top 25 for sure."

I was wrong, apparently, but I shouldn't be. In case you needed added evidence of how good this team has been, let's consult (as usual) Ken Pomeroy's rankings, where the Shockers come in at No. 9 in the nation overall. Or, if you need another data point, observe our newfangled (and just-released, more on this later) Basketball Power Index, in which Wichita State ranks No. 11. See? Gregg Marshall's team is really good! And yet, somehow, they're merely receiving votes, while the likes of Mississippi State -- which lost at home to Georgia Saturday -- remains in the poll at No. 23. (The Bulldogs' KenPom rank? No. 71. Are they that bad? No. Are they top 25 good at this point in the season? Also no.) This should have been an easy swap. And yet, here we are. Baffling stuff.

(*I'm not shilling, promise. The thing is just plain awesome.)

Speaking of which, what about Temple? If Wichita State doesn't tickle your fancy (and I don't know why it wouldn't, but hey, different strokes), you could make the exact same argument about Temple, which came in just behind the Shockers in the also receiving votes category and actually beat WSU back in November. Temple has won its last eight games against Atlantic-10 competition, including Saturday's waltz of a home win over one-time A-10 contender Xavier; Fran Dunphy's team has established itself as the best of a topsy-turvy, wide-open league. I'm not exactly sure how Mississippi State's recent body of work could be considered more worthy of a rank than Temple's. Maybe you can tell me.

Notre Dame arrives. For all the complaining about the bottom edges of the poll and the inability of the coaches to find a spot for this excellent Shockers team, you have to give them credit on one new inclusion: the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. (Nor do I have a particular problem with Gonzaga after the last week's win over Saint Mary's, though Wichita State probably has an argument here, too.) Mike Brey's team was left for dead in November and December, but Brey has suddenly built them into one of the nation's most surprisingly consistent teams. Since Jan. 21's home upset of Syracuse, the Irish have won six in a row, including a 17-point home win over Marquette and road victories at UConn, Seton Hall and West Virginia. This inclusion may have been a week or two late, but at least it finally happened.

The curious case of the Duke Blue Devils. Here's the thing: When you watch Duke, you don't see the fourth-best team in the country. At least, I don't. I suspect even the most partisan Duke fans -- who ought to know elite basketball when they see it -- would agree. And yet, for all the defensive struggles and unusual home losses (Miami, Florida State) and the general feeling that this young team isn't anywhere near the vintage we've come to expect from Coach K's program, it's kind of hard to dispute the ranking. Strictly based on wins and losses, does any team ranked below Duke have a better résumé? Does any team have a win as good as the Blue Devils' dramatic come-from-behind victory at UNC Wednesday? Coach K said in his postgame news conference that he thinks North Carolina is still the best team in the ACC; I'm inclined to agree. Crazy things happen in less than three minutes, and all that. But as jarring as it is to see Duke among the top-five teams in the country, at this point, it's not hard to see why the coaches put them there. Slightly deceptive? Sure. But entirely understandable all the same.

Despite ugly week, Florida holds steady. Of course, there's nothing wrong with taking your licks at Kentucky. Florida is not the first team to do so this season, nor will it be the last. (Newsflash: Kentucky is really, really good.) But here's the thing: On Saturday, Florida lost at home to 13-12 Tennessee thanks mostly to a typically lackluster defensive performance. That's Florida's second loss to the Vols this season. And still, the Gators hold relatively steady at No. 12. I'm not sure Marquette doesn't deserve a nudge upward. Saint Mary's lost at Gonzaga; that's hardly incriminating. Even San Diego State, which took a hard-fought two-point loss at UNLV, may have a case. Either way, Florida fell five spots, so this No. 12 ranking may have as much to do with that as it does any rigorous team-by-team comparison. But the Gators feel far shakier than their ranking suggests.

Murray State Watch: This is the first post-loss poll of the fascinating season-long Murray State saga, one that has seen the Racers rise as high as No. 7 in the country on the strength of their undefeated record. The first question -- how high can Murray State rise? -- was answered last week. The next question -- how far could Murray State fall? -- is available here. The answer: Not all that far, actually. You could imagine the voters using Thursday's four-point home loss to Tennessee State as a reason to take this upstart squad with the gaudy record in the weak Ohio Valley down a peg. Instead, the Racers merely fell to No. 14. I have no problem with this. I don't believe for a second Murray State is one of the best 15 teams in the country, no more than we thought they were one of the best 10 last week. But I don't care who you play, or what league you're in: A 24-0 start is an accomplishment. The recognition seems appropriate.

As always, unleash your poll thoughts (i.e. rants, complaints, homemade poetry verses, and so forth) in the comments below.

Saturday afternoon transitioned into Saturday night as smoothly as Kentucky transitions from an Anthony Davis block to the fast break. In the process, we saw Michigan State defend like crazy at Ohio State, Creighton take a beatdown by Wichita State and the aforementioned Wildcats again assert their dominance, this time at Vanderbilt. That and more in the evening edition of What We Learned.

[Editor's note: For recaps of all the afternoon games, click here.]

No. 12 Michigan State 58, No. 3 Ohio State 48: As far back as August, Tom Izzo -- in typical Izzonian fashion -- proclaimed far and wide how much he loved his team. Not necessarily because he knew the Spartans would be good or because he knew they would keep getting better (although he often seemed to assume as much), but because this Michigan State team, perhaps more than any other in recent years, does the two things Izzo seems to value most: It rebounds. It defends.

The Spartans began Saturday allowing the fourth-fewest points per possession in the country (adjusted, per Ken Pomeroy). They also ranked in the top 10 in both relevant rebounding categories, chasing down 39.9 percent of their misses on offense and yielding second chances on just 26.1 percent of opponents' possessions. Throw in the focused vocal leadership of forward Draymond Green, the back-from-the-dead reclamation of Derrick Nix, one of the toughest point guards in the country in Keith Appling and a batch of dedicated supporting pieces, and, well, no wonder Izzo loves this team. Compared to last season's incoherent, apathetic bunch, he must occasionally feel like he's coaching an entirely different game.

For as consistently as Michigan State has demonstrated those qualities throughout this season, never have they been more clear than Saturday night. Izzo's team held the third-ranked Buckeyes -- in Columbus, mind you -- to a mere .75 points per trip. How? How do you stop a team with so many weapons, with one of the best forwards in the country anchoring it all, in a building where it has won 39 in a row? The Spartans know how: You scrap. You claw. You fight. You make everything difficult for that team's best player. You frustrate him at every turn.

Jared Sullinger was, of course, the focal point of MSU's defensive strategy, and it worked. Sullinger still scored 17 points and grabbed 16 boards, but he needed a 5-of-15 performance to get there, and he committed 10 turnovers in the process. (The 17-16-10 is the first turnover-laden triple-double of the college basketball season, per ESPN Stats & Info. Former Buck Evan Turner had two of them in his final season. The Evan Turner Special lives!) Sullinger was noticeably frustrated throughout the game, arguing for fouls (sometimes rightly, oftentimes wrongly) and forcing shots into the teeth of State's interior defense, anchored brilliantly by forward Adreian Payne (who was also 6-of-6 from the field).

The performance reminded me of Ohio State's loss to Kentucky in last season's Sweet 16, when UK forward Josh Harrellson harassed and harangued Sullinger into a performance far below his usual standards. Harrellson was one of the few players in the country with the size and strength to hold his ground against Sully's girth. Nearly a year later, Payne and Nix demonstrated the same abilities. It's a testament to Sullinger's ability that he still grabbed 16 rebounds, eight of them offensive, but every putback was challenged, every touch contested, every dribble met with reaching slaps.

Sullinger didn't get much help from his teammates. William Buford and Deshaun Thomas combined to shoot 4-of-24 (!!), Aaron Craft was 3-of-7, and all told, the Buckeyes shot 2-of-15 from beyond the arc and 26 percent overall -- its third-worst shooting performance of the past 15 years. Yikes.

The Spartans weren't great on offense (.91 points per trip). Ohio State's defense is its best quality, and the Buckeyes were again good on that end of the floor. But Michigan State didn't have to light it up to get this victory. When you defend this well, when you execute your defensive game plan this perfectly, when you thoroughly dominate one of the nation's elite teams in its own building, you don't have to put up points in bunches to get the job done. No team in the country this season has posted 40 minutes of defense this strong against a team this good.

So, yeah, Tom Izzo loves this team. Can you blame him?

No. 1 Kentucky 69, Vanderbilt 63: You have to hand it to the Commodores: They didn't go away.

That's the biggest positive Kevin Stallings' team can draw from this loss. From the opening tip, UK's brilliant defense was again, well, brilliant. As late as the 4:42 mark in the first half, Vanderbilt had scored just 13 points. The Commodores finished the first half with a whopping 23 as Kentucky led by 13. Terrence Jones was engaged. Anthony Davis was dominant. As it has so often in the past three weeks, John Calipari's team appeared ready to roll to another very impressive SEC victory. Ho and hum.

Then, only a few moments into the second half, things just sort of ... opened up. The Dores not only started finding open shots, they started making them. Brad Tinsley, Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins came alive on the perimeter, while Festus Ezeli started finishing things down low. Soon -- almost before you knew it -- what "GameDay" host Rece Davis called Kentucky's "aura of invincibility" fell away. By the 8:26 mark in the second half, the Commodores led 55-51, the culmination of a 32-17 run.

They would score just eight more points the rest of the game. No one could have known it at the time, but Tinsley's jumper at the 4:09 mark would be Vanderbilt's last bucket of the day. Just as soon as VU had opened the game with solid man offense, crisp passing and accurate shooting, Kentucky shut it down. Davis recorded four blocks in the final seven minutes of the game; he finished with seven total. One of the major themes of the broadcast was Calipari's stated desire to see his team challenged, to see how it would respond. The Wildcats were. Vanderbilt kept swinging. Kentucky took Vandy's best punch. It absorbed a combo or two. And then, as all great fighters do, it emerged stronger and stronger as the game wore on. If Calipari wanted to see how his team would react to a challenge, he had to be thrilled with the result.

Kentucky played a solid, experienced team. It played said solid, experienced team in said team's unique building, with its weird sight lines and elevated court and baseline benches. It did so in front of a crowd that had spent all day goosed by "GameDay," hyped for the glorious chance at knocking off No. 1, something this school has done six times over the years. It didn't matter. Kentucky went 3-of-14 from 3. And it still emerged unscathed.

If Christian Watford's last-second shot doesn't fall in Assembly Hall on Dec. 10 -- back when Kentucky was still figuring things out -- the Cats are undefeated and we're talking less about this sudden surge of brilliance than whether UK could make it to the NCAA tournament with an unbeaten record. This team is one shot -- one 10-second defensive breakdown -- away from legendary comparisons.

Oh, well. As it is, Calipari's team is rounding into one of the most complete -- if not the most complete -- of his career. Davis is a transcendent force anchoring a team with zero defensive holes. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is one of the best two-way players in the country. Jones can dominate when he wants. Doron Lamb is a lights-out shooter. Darius Miller is an underrated offensive presence and an all-around glue guy extraordinaire.

There's a reason this team is awash in that so-called aura of invincibility. The Wildcats aren't actually invincible, of course. But right now, they're the closest thing going.

Wichita State 89, No. 15 Creighton 68: When you've got a national player of the year candidate ripping through each and every opposing defense he sees with a rare blend of volume and efficiency, it's easy to disguise your team's warts. After Wichita State's end-to-end dismantling of the Bluejays on Saturday, those warts are now fully exposed.

The score line tells the story here, but it's nothing new: Creighton is, at best, a fairly mediocre defensive team. The Bluejays entered this Valley showdown ranked No. 119 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per Pomeroy. They force turnovers on just 16.3 percent of their defensive possessions, which ranks them No. 336 out of 345 Division I teams. This so-so defense has been hidden well all season because Creighton outscores everybody. Doug McDermott and company have the nation's highest effective field goal percentage and its sixth-most efficient offense overall. But in the past three games -- losses to Northern Iowa, Evansville and now Wichita State -- the Bluejays' offense has suddenly cooled off. Creighton's effective field goal percentage figures in its past three games are 46.5, 44.2 and 44.7 percent.

And therein lies Saturday's problem: Wichita State is not a one-way team. Rather, Gregg Marshall's squad combines excellent defense (KenPom rank: No. 26) with efficient offense (KenPom: No. 11), tops in MVC play in both metrics. Despite their hugely impressive per-possession stats, the Shockers have flown below the radar recently thanks in large part to that triple-overtime loss at Drake in late January. But in basically every other Valley affair, even the 68-61 loss at home to Creighton in this series' first game, the Shockers have been comprehensively good.

Does that mean Wichita is 21 points better than Creighton, home, away or neutral? No. Is its offense as good as the 1.4 points per trip it poured in Saturday night? Probably not. But this lopsided result in front of a huge crowd in Omaha does reveal some notable truths about both teams. For Creighton, it laid bare just how important the Jays' offense is to their chances of making a run in the NCAA tournament; it's no coincidence this three-game losing streak came in three mediocre shooting performances. Greg McDermott's team can't afford to miss shots, because it can't get the stops it needs to keep things close.

For Wichita State, well, if you didn't know, now you know: The Shockers are good. Not "dangerous." Not "plucky." Just flat-out good.

Temple 85, Xavier 72: If you're still waiting for a team to round into its full form on Feb. 11, there's a good chance you'll still be waiting on March 11. That appears to be the case with Xavier. The Musketeers haven't been bad in Atlantic 10 play -- they ranked fourth in A-10 efficiency margin as of this week -- but they haven't been particularly good, let alone their usual brand of good, the one that led them to a 15-1 league record last season. Instead, these Musketeers are just sort of, well, mediocre.

Which is to take nothing away from Temple, which blitzed Chris Mack's team early and never looked back. Guard Ramone Moore went off, scoring 30 points on 9-of-16 from the field, while Khalif Wyatt put up 18 points, four assists and three steals, and Micheal Eric contributed 11 points and 16 rebounds. The Owls' backcourt is the undisputed strength of the team, and Fran Dunphy's squad continues to look more and more like the A-10's clear favorite each time that backcourt makes life so difficult for opponents on both ends of the floor. Temple is alone atop the league at 8-2.

The contrast between these two teams is glaring. One is whole, complete, playing its best basketball at the right time. The other is scattershot, struggling, not bad but far worse than it has any right to be, given its talent. The temptation to connect X's continued struggles to the Dec. 10 brawl is worth resisting here. Does it play a part? Maybe. Has guard Mark Lyons (who didn't start) been unpredictable and frustrating since? Oh yeah. But at this point, it's also possible Xavier just wasn't all that good in the first place. Whatever the reasons, the Musketeers -- perennial NCAA tournament fixtures -- are running out of time to figure it out.

A few more observations from the night of hoops:

• Harvard's preordained run to its first NCAA tournament in decades -- the Crimson are clearly the best team in the Ivy League and were the heaviest of favorites to win it outright -- got just a little shakier Saturday night. Tommy Amaker's team fell to the old-world perennial Ivy favorite, Princeton, 70-62. It's a sign of Harvard's changed status that Princeton students -- who are fans of a program that is the historical Ivy elite, and which just beat one of the league's longtime losers -- rushed the court after their team's 23rd consecutive home victory over the Crimson. Despite the loss, Harvard's chances of winning the league are still very good. Its schedule -- which features Yale, Princeton and Penn at home before a season-ending two-game road swing at Columbia and Cornell -- is a major advantage. Plus, the No. 21 Crimson still own a one-game lead in the standings. But they will be eager to avoid any further slip-ups. If they end up in another one-game tiebreak (the Ivy League awards its NCAA tournament bid to the regular-season winner), anything can happen. Amaker's bunch, which lost its trip to the tourney to Princeton on a tiebreak buzzer-beater last season, knows all too well what can happen when you leave the preordained to chance.
• We let this one slip by in the afternoon frenzy, but Mississippi State's loss to Georgia probably deserves a mention. The Bulldogs were undone by freshman Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's big-time step-back 3 in overtime (not to mention his other 17 points and eight rebounds), and hey, yeah, sometimes you take a tough OT loss. But Mississippi State's inconsistency is a bad sign for a team with major tournament aspirations. Not a good performance at all.
• Southern Miss held on for a 78-74 home victory over UCF, yet another gritty, close win in a Golden Eagles season full of them. Don't look now, but Southern Miss is 21-4 on the season with a top-15 RPI. Wednesday night's loss at UAB is certainly a black mark -- especially considering the Blazers lost by 34 to Memphis on Saturday night -- but other than that, this team has a shockingly strong at-large case. Larry Eustachy is reborn!
• Phil Martelli's team picked up another A-10 home win, as Saint Joseph's took down upstart UMass 73-62 and damaged the Minutemen's outside chances of an at-large bid. Massachusetts could have gone to 8-3 with a win. Instead, it moves backward, into the thick of the league's muddled middle, alongside the Hawks and many others.
• If there is any justice in the world, tiny Wabash College will find its way to the "SportsCenter" top plays in the coming days. Why? Because of Aaron Zinnerman's shot, one of the more insane and unlikely you'll ever see. The YouTube clip is here. Enjoy. (Important correction! This post incorrectly cited Wabash as the alma mater of Butler coach Brad Stevens. Rather, as numerous alums have informed me, Stevens actually went to rival DePauw. I always mistake the two, but nonetheless regret the error. My bad, everyone.)

Andy Katz looks ahead to some of the big games this weekend in college basketball.

For full coverage of the Michigan State-Ohio State matchup, click here.

Friday

Iona at Loyola (ESPNU, 7 p.m. ET): Loyola coach Jimmy Patsos was peeved that his squad was left out of the TV BracketBusters games. Well, this one is on TV and it’s a shot for the Greyhounds to let the rest of the country know that the more publicized Gaels aren’t the only team in the MAAC. The teams are tied atop the league. This should be the MAAC tournament final, with one of the two earning the bid in Springfield, Mass., next month.

Saturday

Louisville at West Virginia (ESPN, noon ET): The Cardinals are rolling while the Mountaineers haven’t been the same since losing to Syracuse and failing to get that goaltending call on Jan. 28. If West Virginia doesn’t stop Louisville in transition, the Mountaineers are in serious trouble. But you have to expect WVU will get this win at home.

Virginia at North Carolina (ESPN3, 1 p.m. ET): The Cavaliers can disrupt the Tar Heels and control the tempo. The key will be how the Heels respond to their disheartening loss Wednesday to Duke. UNC is the more talented team, but are the Tar Heels mentally tough enough to bounce back and beat a disciplined Cavs squad?

Miami at Florida State (ESPN3, 1 p.m. ET): The Seminoles had to take care of business against the bottom of the ACC. But they didn’t for the second time when they were stunned at Boston College on Wednesday. Miami comes in on a roll after following up its win Sunday over Duke with a victory over Virginia Tech on Thursday. This could be one of the most evenly matched ACC games -- not involving Duke or Carolina -- the rest of the conference season.

Connecticut at Syracuse (1 p.m. ET): The Huskies need to show some pride and play well at Syracuse. Orange coach Jim Boeheim wasn’t at all pleased with his team’s effort Wednesday against Georgetown. UConn, meanwhile, is coming off a brutal performance Monday at Louisville. The Orange have more talent, depth and experience. UConn needs to create havoc on the defensive end to have a shot and Andre Drummond and Alex Oriakhi better play one of their best games to control the post.

Baylor at Missouri (ESPN3, 1:30 p.m. ET): The Bears got worked over by Kansas at home; Missouri is coming off a gritty victory at Oklahoma after beating Kansas in Columbia last Saturday. Separation has occurred in the Big 12, with Missouri and Kansas a game ahead of Baylor. The Bears had better find a way to defend. Missouri already proved it can win against a taller set. If Missouri wins, Baylor would not have beaten Mizzou or Kansas this season.

VCU at Old Dominion (2 p.m. ET): This should come as no surprise: VCU is on a roll and atop the CAA with Drexel and George Mason. ODU is a game behind after losing last week at Mason. If the Monarchs want a shot at the CAA title, they probably have to win this game. ODU gets one more shot at one of the leaders, hosting Drexel to end the season. All four are postseason teams, but only one might be in the NCAAs.

Wyoming at New Mexico (3:30 p.m. ET): The Lobos won where UNLV could not -- at Wyoming. New Mexico has quietly put together a potential MWC title season. UNM is tied with UNLV and a game behind San Diego State. This is another chance to stay in stride with the Rebels and Aztecs.

San Diego State at UNLV (4 p.m. ET): The Aztecs knocked off the Rebels in the final second Jan. 14 at Viejas Arena. Each has suffered a surprising road loss since, at Colorado State and Wyoming, respectively. Thomas & Mack will be rocking. The key will be if the Aztecs can again keep the Rebs off the backboards in key moments.

Wichita State at Creighton (ESPN2, 5 p.m. ET): The Bluejays are reeling, by their Missouri Valley standards, after losing two straight. Wichita State lost at home to Creighton on Dec. 31, and if the Shockers want to win the Valley regular-season title, they need to win this game. Don’t be surprised if this ends up being game two of three between these two Valley favorites. A meeting in St. Louis seems inevitable.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (ESPN, 9 p.m. ET): The Wildcats have reached the toughest part of their road schedule -- at Vandy, at Mississippi State and at Florida before the end of the regular season. The Commodores certainly have the talent, experience and some beef to deal with Kentucky. But can they finish against UK, or any elite team? Vandy isn’t going to win the SEC. But this is a huge confidence game for the NCAAs.

Xavier at Temple (ESPN2, 9 p.m. ET): The Musketeers have been erratic. Temple hasn’t always been healthy. The Owls appear to be the front-runners in the A-10 -- at least at this point -- but X can upstage Temple with a victory in Philadelphia. This could be a decisive win for the Owls in their quest to win the league outright.