ESPN Men's Basketball

Until he misfired during a Final Four loss against Kansas (9 points), forward Deshaun Thomas had been the best player –-- arguably -- on the Buckeyes' roster throughout the NCAA tournament.

The left-hander’s versatility fueled Ohio State’s run to New Orleans with performances that raised his NBA stock.

But Thomas announced Friday that he’s decided to return to school for another year. And that call automatically keeps the Buckeyes in the national title hunt for the 2012-13 season, even with Jared Sullinger turning pro and William Buford graduating.

I think they’re a solid top-10 squad. Aaron Craft is back to harass opposing guards. And there’s potential among young players who didn't get a ton of minutes this season.

If former McDonald’s All-America center Amir Williams blossoms in the offseason and starts to fulfill his potential as a sophomore, the Buckeyes could make another strong run in the NCAA tournament.

But Thomas will be the focus of Thad Matta’s system. And I think his skill set will allow Ohio State to spread the floor and take full advantage of Thomas’ abilities, which we saw during the NCAA tourney.

While the Thomas announcement solidifies Ohio State’s position entering next season, the rest of the Big Ten is one giant question mark.

The league has the potential to send multiple teams to the Big Dance. But depending on who goes pro by the April 29 deadline (after April 10, any early entrant who applies for the NBA draft will lose his collegiate eligibility), it might not pack the same punch it did during the 2011-12 campaign.

Indiana and Michigan could join Ohio State in the preseason top 10, but that all depends on a few decisions that will be made in the coming weeks/days.

If Cody Zeller and Christian Watford return, the Hoosiers could compete for the national championship. Tom Crean is bringing in one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Zeller will be a Wooden Award candidate and preseason All-America center. If Watford builds on his Sweet 16 performance against Kentucky (27 points), he could be one of the best forwards in the conference.

Michigan needs Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. to return. Burke, however, is more vital to John Beilein’s plans. With highly rated prospects Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson Jr. coming to Ann Arbor for the 2012-13 season, the Wolverines will add productive scorers who can contribute right away if Hardaway goes pro. But what will they do if they lose Burke? He might be the best point guard in the country if he comes back for his sophomore season. Without him, Michigan will still possess a talented, young roster. But the Wolverines could end up in Atlanta with Burke leading the way.

Minnesota also faces an uncertain future. The Gophers could be a borderline top-25 squad if preseason all-Big Ten forward Trevor Mbakwe returns. He missed most of last season after suffering a knee injury, but the NCAA recently granted the Big Ten’s No. 1 rebounder during the 2010-11 season a sixth year of eligibility. He’s expected to return -- assuming the Gophers have a scholarship for him. Tubby Smith has already reached the 13-scholarship limit, with two recruits joining the team next season. So Minnesota’s situation could get complicated, too.

Smith has asked the NCAA to allow the team to use a 14th scholarship next season. There’s also a chance that a player will transfer; five have left the program since 2009. But there are no guarantees right now for Mbakwe or the Gophers.

The Big Ten will be talented next season even if the aforementioned stars leave for the NBA.

But right now, it’s hard to project the league’s potential without knowing if its best players will stick around for another season.

1. The NCAA would have had a field day trying to keep fans and a top recruit separate Sunday night. It was hard to miss ESPNU 100 No. 1 player Nerlens Noel walking down Bourbon Street with a host of other high school All-Americans. There were hundreds of Kentucky fans walking in the opposite direction and a number noticed Noel, yelling out to him to go to UK. Noel referenced the scene in his blog for ESPN.com. His decision will be either Kentucky, Georgetown or Syracuse.

2. I don’t understand why Keno Davis (Central Michigan), Bruce Weber (Kansas State) and Doug Wocjik (College of Charleston) can all get fired and hired and former Boston College coach Al Skinner can’t get a sniff. His record dwarfs Davis and Wojcik and as the all-time winningest coach at BC, Skinner can match Weber, too.

3. Ohio State coach Thad Matta said in New Orleans that Jared Sullinger promised him two years and that’s exactly what he received. Sullinger also was a winner during his tenure in Columbus, reaching the Final Four in his second season and winning a share of two Big Ten titles. Sullinger could have gone the route of Tyler Hansbrough of North Carolina and stayed to see if he could win a title. But it’s hard to argue with his decision if he’s a lock for the lottery.

NEW ORLEANS -- Thad Matta’s attitude is incredibly healthy.

It was a year ago, after Ohio State lost to Kentucky in the Sweet 16 on a final possession, when Matta sat back and reflected on the phenomenal regular season the Buckeyes had with just a few blemishes.

He was composed again Saturday night, in yet another situation in which the Buckeyes were the favorite to advance, but failed to do so because of late-game execution.

“I’ll get back to the hotel and decompress, but I’m so proud of these guys that they put us in a situation to win a national championship,’’ Matta said after the Buckeyes unfathomably blew a nine-point halftime lead and lost to Kansas 64-62 in the national semifinal.

“There were so many unknowns with this basketball team and to sit here and see that we won 31 games on March 31,’’ Matta said. “I’m not happy we lost the game, but we were there. We had a shot.’’

The Buckeyes have become a consistent winner under Matta. He has survived multiple early entrants departing for the NBA. He continues to recruit elite, NBA first-round talent and at times lottery talent. He isn’t doing anything wrong here. But his team has simply missed on a few key situations in consecutive seasons.

Jared Sullinger was there for both. A year ago, he had David Lighty, William Buford and Jon Diebler as complementary pieces, along with point guard Aaron Craft.

This season, Sullinger, DeShaun Thomas and Buford were the staples along with Craft. But this Ohio State team wasn’t prepared for a bit of a curve.

It came Saturday night, when foul trouble forced Thomas to play only 23 minutes. That changed everything for the Buckeyes.

Kansas double-teamed Sullinger and he suddenly became ineffective. Matta said that he had to use Evan Ravenel and Amir Williams more, which meant they were in the post and not able to draw Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey away from the basket, which was the game plan.

“That was a pivotal point,’’ Matta said. “We couldn’t extend our lead and make our run.’’

Still, Ohio State had a lead with 2:22 remaining. It was three points, but you could feel momentum shifting. Withey came up with multiple blocks, Craft and Buford each missed a layup and the Jayhawks made free throws to give KU a three-point lead with 1:08 remaining.

The lead was down to one point and then three again when Tyshawn Taylor converted two free throws with eight seconds left.

Taylor stole the ensuing inbounds pass, only to turn it over immediately. That gave the Buckeyes one more chance. Self called for a foul on Craft with two seconds remaining. Craft made the first, but then committed a lane violation on the second when he purposely missed the shot.

Then, with Craft almost looking in disbelief and Sullinger in awe, Sullinger sat on the court and pulled his jersey over his head.

It’s hard to imagine that Ohio State had a nine-point halftime lead, forced 17 turnovers and still lost. But Sullinger’s 5-of-19 shooting was a clear indication that Withey’s length bothered him. Thomas’ 3-for-14 night as well as his foul trouble made the loss easier to understand.

“We just didn’t execute down the stretch,’’ said Sullinger. “We had shots we normally make and we missed. Kansas played smarter and won at the end.’’

Sullinger said he wasn’t expecting the double-team and was thrown off guard. He was noble in his praise for Kansas.

“Good job by Coach Self to switch it up on me,’’ Sullinger said.

And so Kansas will play Kentucky in the national title game. Ohio State will go home, relishing a wonderful regular season that ended with wins at Northwestern and Michigan State to force a three-way tie for the Big Ten title with the Spartans and Michigan. The postseason was highlighted by an Elite Eight victory over Syracuse in the East Regional in Boston.

Whether that camouflages the ending is still to be determined. Ohio State will leave with a missed opportunity for a title. It’s not a reach to consider that the Buckeyes were one of the best teams a year ago, and a win over Kentucky would have set them up for a showdown with North Carolina to get to the Final Four.

There are a lot of ifs to that scenario.

But there is also a consistency: Ohio State couldn’t close then, just as it failed to do Saturday.

“It’s very empty,’’ said Sullinger. “To see someone like William Buford who can’t return to school hurts. He gave it his all these last four years. You feel for him.’’

Sullinger was noncommittal about his future. He hardly showed that he should definitely bolt for the NBA. If he’s gone, then Ohio State will rebuild again. And if he stays, then clearly the Buckeyes will be back as a title contender.

One thing is certain, though: The Buckeyes are a team and program that commands respect with its winning mentality, but still hasn’t found that ability to edge across the finish line with timely execution.

NEW ORLEANS -- Take a deep breath, if you can, then dig in to this immediate reaction to Kansas' 64-62 win over Ohio State:

Overview: The Buckeyes opened with what might have been their best half of basketball in the 2012 season. Jared Sullinger was getting good touches on the low block, William Buford and Deshaun Thomas were lacing 3-pointers and the defense -- Ohio State's best characteristic all season and the one that earned them this spot in the Final Four -- was utterly stifling. By the six-minute mark, OSU had held the Jayhawks to just 13 points, opened a 26-13 lead and looked likely to dominate their national semifinal in unexpectedly impressive fashion.

And then, of course, the game changed, because Kansas changed. The Jayhawks began pressuring and doubling Sullinger on every touch, and the forward began to cough it up and force bad looks over forward Jeff Withey's outstretched arms. Things got easier on the offensive end, too, where Withey and forward Thomas Robinson began to find space on the low block, where they converted easy dunks and layups on screen and rolls and post-ups, the kind they couldn't find in the first 20 minutes. Kansas' guards scored on turnovers, found their way to the rim and chipped away at the deficit. Meanwhile, Deshaun Thomas spent much of the half on the bench with three -- and then, nearly as soon as he returned, four -- fouls.

By the 14-minute mark in the second half, Kansas had gone on a 25-12 run in little more than 12 minutes, tying the game at 38. From there, the game would always be in the balance.

Turning point: The Jayhawks kept up the pressure, but never built their own lead, even as Thomas languished on the sidelines with four fouls. This was a major victory for the Buckeyes: They had their second-best offensive player off the floor for nearly the entire second half and they gave up their big lead, but they never let Kansas take control of the game. Thomas re-entered at the under-four-minute timeout. OSU led, 55-53.

The Buckeyes still couldn't pull away. With 2:22 left to play, Aaron Craft's steal and fast-break layup gave the Buckeyes a three-point lead, but Kansas nipped and clawed, and with two minutes left it finally took its first lead since the first basket of the game. Tyshawn Taylor and Elijah Johnson delivered on remarkable drives to the paint, Withey made a huge block on the other end and the Jayhawks suddenly found themselves up 62-59 with just one minute to play.

With 55 seconds left, Robinson poached a steal from Thomas, but Craft -- in what may have been the day's best defensive play -- ripped the ball out before Robinson could convert on the break. OSU didn't get a bucket on the next possession, but it was bailed out by a Withey travel (the right, albeit very unpopular, call). Thomas launched a too-early 3 on the other end, which Buford followed up with a putback dunk, and Kansas needed merely to make its free throws to ensure at least a tie game with 8.3 seconds left.

Taylor converted on both. Then, he stole the ball -- a game-sealing play! -- before throwing it away on an overzealous bounce pass. (This is Tyshawn Taylor in a nutshell.) Releford fouled Craft before Craft could shoot a 3 -- not that he didn't try. Craft made the first free throw but was called for a lane violation on the second. The game ended just like that; Craft and his stunned teammates staring at the officials and the scoreboard and each other in disbelief.

Kansas fans started throwing their seat pads in the general direction of the floor, makeshift confetti for the ensuing party. The Jayhawks will have their chance at a national title Monday night. The party had begun.

Key stat: Offensive rebounding percentage. The Jayhawks grabbed 37.5 percent of their misses and limited Ohio State to just 25 percent of theirs, the key difference between two defensively dominant teams in a game in which the smallest of statistical margins made outsized impacts.

Key player: Withey. Every Jayhawk played a role in their comeback and eventual win, and Robinson's night -- 19 points, 8 rebounds, 8-of-18 from the field -- can't be overlooked. But the most important performance came from the 7-foot Withey, whose incredible reach and interior defense made Sullinger a nonfactor on the offensive end. Withey finished with 7 blocks and 8 rebounds; Sullinger posted just 13 points on 5-of-19 from the field. In a game filled with tricky matchup issues, Withey was the biggest mismatch ace up Bill Self's sleeve. He proved why Saturday night.

Miscellaneous: Kansas continued its rather remarkable string of second-half defensive turnarounds. In the past three games (before the Final Four), the Jayhawks have allowed opponents to score 38.7 points per half on 50.0 percent shooting and 51.9 percent from beyond the arc. In the second half of those games, the Jayhawks have allowed just 22.7 points, 22.4 shooting and 15.4 percent from the field. A similar situation unfolded in New Orleans. (Imagine if they locked down like this all game!) Either way, the turnarounds have been remarkable, enough to guide Kansas to the precipice of a national title. Crazy.

What's next: The unlikely story of these Kansas Jayhawks isn't over yet. Kansas survived yet another nail-biting NCAA tournament game -- its specialty in the weeks leading up to this Final Four -- and its latest escape act puts it on the sport's biggest stage, with a chance to take down the overwhelming favorite, the Kentucky Wildcats. The game is a coaching rematch of the 2008 Final Four, when Bill Self's Jayhawks made their nine-points-in-two-minutes comeback to steal a remarkable national title from then-Memphis coach John Calipari's grasp. If we're lucky, Monday night's edition of Self versus Calipari will be half as good. It certainly has that potential.

Meanwhile, Ohio State will head back to Columbus leveled, no doubt, by another missed national title opportunity. Sullinger, the team's star, is almost certain to leave for the NBA, where he'll be a likely lottery pick. Matta will have this team back near the top of the Big Ten yet again in 2013; his Buckeyes remain a recruiting haven and Thomas, Craft and a handful of talented young players will be back in the fold next season. But Matta will surely lament the inability to break through with his big man from Columbus -- the best Buckeyes' player since Greg Oden -- when he had the chance.

NEW ORLEANS -- Back in December, after Ohio State held Jared Sullinger out of a 78-67 loss at Kansas because of back spasms, coach Thad Matta joked that he’d given the Jayhawks an early Christmas present.

KU’s Bill Self was ready with a comeback when the coaches crossed paths again Friday.

“Got anything for us for Easter?” Self said.

Unfortunately for Kansas, Sullinger and the Buckeyes will be at full strength when they take the Superdome court for Saturday’s rematch in the Final Four.

The Jayhawks, though, contend they’re a better team now, too. Point guard Tyshawn Taylor played the Dec. 10 game with a torn meniscus that required surgery the following morning. He dished out 13 assists against the Buckeyes but also had seven turnovers.

“It was so long ago,” KU center Jeff Withey said. “We’ve both grown so much. It feels like a year ago. It’s going to be a different game tomorrow.”

One of the biggest improvements for Kansas has been the play of Withey, who had two points and two blocks against Ohio State in December. Since then, the 7-foot junior has emerged as one of the top post players in the country. He has 20 blocks in four NCAA tournament games, including 10 in a Sweet 16 victory over North Carolina State.

Withey will be one of the main players charged with stopping Sullinger, who will likely be a lottery pick if he chooses to enter this summer’s NBA draft.

“I’m pretty long,” Withey said, “so hopefully that will bother him a little bit. If he doesn’t catch the ball, he can’t score. I’ll try to make him catch the ball as far away from the basket as possible.”

Withey smiled when asked to compare Sullinger to another player he’s faced.

“Thomas Robinson,” Withey said. “I’ve been playing against him for three years now (in practice). I’m going to have to use that to my advantage.”

As impressive as the 31-6 Jayhawks have been this season, they are still underdogs against an Ohio State squad that is deeper and slightly more talented. Ohio State shot 38 percent against KU in December while the Jayhawks shot 58 percent.

Somehow, though, it was still a five-point game with four minutes remaining. Kansas’ players are expecting another tough battle Saturday. Nearly 24 hours before the game, the Jayhawks couldn’t have appeared any looser.

“We’ve got to enjoy ourselves and soak it in,” guard Conner Teahan said. “No matter what the outcome is tomorrow, we know this season has been a success no matter what.”

By Saturday, John Calipari, Rick Pitino, Thad Matta and Bill Self will have had nearly a week to scout their opponents. As we type, they're breaking down film, analyzing their opponents' strengths and weaknesses and searching for ways to impart this knowledge to their players in simple, digestible form. They are ... pause for dramatic effect ... game-planning.

What will each come up with? We don't exactly know. That's why they're coaches in the Final Four, and we are, you know, not. But we can still venture a guess. In the latter of a two-part series, here's a look at what they may come up with.

Now: Kansas vs. Ohio State.

Kansas Jayhawks

Offense: By adjusted efficiency's lights, three of the four best defensive teams in the country are members of the Final Four. None of them, if you can believe it, is Kentucky.

They are, in order: No. 1 Louisville, No. 2 Ohio State, and No. 4 Kansas. (Kentucky is ranked No. 11; it's not like the Wildcats are slouches.) The cliche, as always: Defense wins championships.

Can the Jayhawks defend their way to a win? Would a game in which both teams hover around or below the 1.0 point-per-possession mark be in their favor? Maybe. But I tend to doubt it. Which means two things for Self as he prepares his squad for Saturday's "Clash of the Titans"-esque contest. (Or is it Wrath of the Titans?) In no particular order:

1. Kansas has to win the interior scoring battle.

2. Tyshawn Taylor has to stay in control.

The second might be the more important, but the first isn't far behind. Kansas is not a good outside-shooting team. This was true for much of the season (Kansas has shot 34.9 percent from beyond the arc), and it's true of the NCAA tournament, when the Jayhawks have made a downright blistering 16 of their 68 3-point field goal attempts. This might be a blessing in disguise: Last season, the Jayhawks were actually (and non-sarcastically) blistering from 3-point land; their reliance on that shot, and inability to adjust, ultimately ended their season in the Elite Eight against VCU. This season, the Jayhawks have no such reliance, so Taylor, the team's second-most important scorer, can somehow go 0-of-17 from 3 in four tournament games and Self's team can still make it to the Final Four. Fancy that.

No, what the Jayhawks do well -- as well as any team in the country -- is score around the rim. Kansas' 2-point field goal percentage this season is 53.3 percent, the 13th-best in the country. This comes in part thanks to Taylor's ability to get to the rim, but it is mostly to do with Kansas' two big men and the high-low motion offense -- Self's trademark -- that places them into prime, hard-to-double scoring positions.

And Thomas Robinson isn't the only threat. Jeff Withey is actually more efficient in the low block, averaging 1.045 ppp to Robinson's .902 this season, according to Synergy Sports Technologies scouting data. Robinson gets three times as many post-ups as Withey does, so his efficiency can naturally be expected to take a hit. But you get the idea. Robinson presents the high-powered NBA talent in this front line, but Withey -- with his 7-foot stature and even longer reach -- might be the biggest mismatch the Jayhawks have to offer against a team that plays the 6-9 Jared Sullinger as its putative center.

But No. 2 above is where things get really interesting -- and, for Kansas, especially dicey. Throughout his four-year career, Taylor has been known to commit his share of turnovers, wacky heat-checks and mental mistakes. The point guard's 2012 turnover rate (his percentage of possessions in which he coughs up the ball) is 22.3. That's not bad for a player charged with creating offense within a 3-point-bereft perimeter attack. But it's hardly an encouraging stat for a player facing off against the industrial-grade turnover robot we humans casually refer to as "Aaron Craft" (more on that below).

Taylor's turnover rates have fluctuated all season. This is especially true of the tournament, wherein Taylor has posted respective rates of 33.3 percent, 20 percent, 31.2 percent, and, against North Carolina, 15 percent. Is that latest mark real? Or the product of playing against Stilman White?

Taylor's importance in this game can't possibly be underestimated. If Craft cripples him on the perimeter, Kansas loses a massive portion of its attack. It could take care of the first item above -- Withey and Robinson getting buckets on the low block -- but if Taylor doesn't deliver on No. 2, the rest probably won't matter.

Defense: Grim as Taylor's prospects may seem, the Jayhawks are the nation's fourth-best defensive team, and they have a secret weapon many people still don't seem to know about.

Quick: Name the nation's best shot-blocker. Anthony Davis, right? Davis' range and impact make it difficult to argue that point. OK then: Name me the nation's most frequent shot-blocker, the one that repels opponents on a higher percentage of possessions than any other in the country? Yep. That's Withey.

Withey and Robinson are the near-ideal defensive pair. When an opponent drives the line, Withey goes after the block; he succeeds 15.1 percent of the time, the nation's highest rate. When that opponent misses -- or when any opponent misses, frankly -- Robinson, the nation's leading defensive rebounder (who grabs 30.9 percent of opponents' available bricks) is there to clamp the board and find a guard for a quick outlet.

This is a massive advantage to hold over Ohio State. At 33.2 percent from long range in 2011-12, the Buckeyes are an even worse 3-point shooting team than Kansas. More often than not, they get their points from Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas. Which is why Withey changes the game. Robinson has the size and speed to move with Thomas out to 20 feet if needed; Withey has the height to make Sullinger -- who struggles scoring over just this kind of player -- ineffective near the rim.

In the meantime, keep an eye out for Kansas' triangle-and-two junk defense. The Jayhawks have used it twice in their past two games, and each time it has halted the opponents' chief offensive threats, formed a near-impenetrable wall around the rim and, it must be said, downright befuddled UNC coach Roy Williams.

But whatever defense the Jayhawks run, their rare combination of length and athleticism in the post may be their defense's Craftian trump card. It should be fascinating.

TL;DR game plan: Dominate down low, work Robinson and Withey relentlessly, take only the best possible outside shots, hope Taylor doesn't self-destruct against Aaron Craft TurnoverBot 5000.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Offense: Now that we know all about Kansas' interior defense -- and the relative impenetrability thereof -- what hope is there for Ohio State's offense?

Let's go with a two-point plan, similar to Kansas', in that it is one part prescriptive game plan and one part "hope for the best" wishcasting:

1. Use Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas to stretch the floor.

2. Hope William Buford makes some shots.

First up: Sullinger is generously listed at 6-foot-9. Thomas is listed at 6-7, which seems slightly closer to reality. But either way, the Buckeyes' starting forwards are at a major height disadvantage against the defense they'll face Saturday. With a slightly more lifty (new draft term alert; get Bilas on the horn at once!) Sullinger, that might not be as much of a problem. But Sullinger doesn't explode off the ground. Rather, he roots defenders out with his considerable posterior, achieves optimal position, and finishes with brute force. This season -- especially in the Syracuse win, when he flashed a dazzling little mid-range touch -- Sullinger has considerably expanded his game. But he remains at his best when he can clear defenders out of his way and score with his right hand over his left shoulder. Against the 7-foot Withey -- the likely matchup in any man-to-man defense -- that is going to be very difficult.

Which is why it's time for Sullinger to flash that 15-foot jumper he stayed in school to develop. Don't push Withey under the rim. Pull him out. Make him guard you at 15 feet. If you can't see over him, swing the ball and find a better look ... but don't play into the Jayhawks' strength. The Buckeyes are a good but not great offensive rebounding team, so if this means sacrificing position, so be it.

That goes double for Thomas. As Dana O'Neil noted in her excellent feature on Thomas from Wednesday, the stretch forward has morphed from an impulse bench gunner into one of the nation's most potent scorers. Thomas is leading Ohio State in scoring through its four NCAA tournament games, the mark of his continued expansion into one of the nation's most versatile threats. Thomas has no go-to scoring area, no preference for touch. Over the course of the season, per Synergy, he has spread his touches and scored almost equally on post-ups, spot-up jumpers, basket cuts and offensive rebound putbacks. In the tournament, Thomas has scored 1.643 on spot-ups (23 points on 14 possessions), by far his most efficient scoring trait.

This kind of versatile inside-out scoring from a 6-7 forward presents a major matchup problem for the Jayhawks. In the man-to-man, it could force Robinson to move further away from the hoop than he'd like. Thomas can look to shoot, or he can make Robinson move to stop his penetration; either way, Matta will like his chances. If Kansas goes to that famed triangle-and-two, Matta can use Thomas to stretch the corners all the way to the 3-point line, where the shot is (relatively) high-percentage and the defensive style is most vulnerable.

Whether the Jayhawks play man (likely) or triangle-and-two (less likely, but you never know when Self will bust it out), Thomas' and Sullinger's ability to score away from the rim will be key.

Which brings us, of course, to Buford. When Ohio State has struggled this season -- and those times, though rare, were highly publicized -- it was primarily because Buford and Craft and Thomas and even Lenzelle Smith were failing to provide the outside shooting that made the 2010-11 Buckeyes' offense so lethal. Actually, forget 2011: Ohio State was never even mediocre from long range. A large portion of that responsibility falls on Buford.

In this game, Buford presents the clearest matchup advantage for the Buckeyes. Travis Releford and Elijah Johnson aren't big enough to match up with the Buckeyes guard's size on the wing. But Buford is shooting just 13-of-44 in the NCAA tournament, the kind of offensive struggles he's dealt with all season. Ohio State has managed to progress this far without efficient wing scoring, but that may not get it done against a rim-protecting defense like this.

Can Buford come alive at just the right time? Can the Buckeyes stretch Kansas enough to get a few easy looks at the rim? The questions are intertwined and difficult to divine. But in this game, they couldn't possibly be more important.

Defense: Sports Illustrated's Luke Winn does a better job than anyone in the country processing advanced statistics and scouting data and presenting it to your eyeballs in visually attractive form, and Luke's 2012 Aaron Craft Turnometer may be his Symphony No. 9. All season, Winn tracked the turnovers Craft forced -- some for which he was credited in the scoresheet, many not -- alongside charges taken and offensive fouls forced. The end result is the picture of the nation's most dominant defensive player, one who individually forces turnovers on 7.56 percent of opponents' possessions and one who just had his best game of the season in the Sweet 16:

How many players can say their best performance of the season was in the NCAA tournament? That’s the case for Buckeyes pest/point guard Aaron Craft, who had the Turnometer" needle buried by creating 10 turnovers against Cincinnati in the Sweet 16. According to SI’s charting, it was Craft’s top turnover-creation game of the season, beating his previous best of 9.5 against Jackson State on Nov. 18.

If it has become fashionable to pick Ohio State to win this game -- for the record, I think it's a toss-up, but we'll see -- Craft, the friendly turnover-forcing robot, is why.

He pokes. He prods. He cuts penetration off with his shoulders and chest. He shows a double-team, then recovers too quickly to expose it. He is almost always in perfect defensive position, and his ability to give contact without fouling is almost unparalleled. He's a one-man antidote to the screen and roll. And if there's a player better at stripping opposing guards of the ball 25 feet from the hoop, I haven't seen him.

Craft is a nightmare matchup for the previously discussed, turnover-prone Taylor. Taylor is the second-most-important piece of Kansas' offense. Not only does he initiate that offense, but he also is relied upon to penetrate the lane, finish with a floater or drive, or find an open player with a dish. Craft makes that possibility remote.

Another major part of Taylor's game is transition; he and Johnson can be fearsome on the break. (Their connection on the closing-moments half-court alley-oop against Purdue was one of the more simultaneously questionable and amazing plays of the season.) But Craft is good at this, too: He is uniquely able to pressure defenders in the open court -- to "turn them," in coach speak -- cutting off any ball advancement (at best) and creating enough havoc to win a turnover (at worst). The Jayhawks would sure like to see Taylor and Johnson get out on the break whenever possible; it's the best way to score against Ohio State. But is it even possible?

There are other defensive matchups to watch in this game -- how Ohio State handles T-Rob and Withey, whether the Buckeyes need to worry about Releford on the wing, whether reserve Conner Teahan can provide shooting off the bench -- but by far the most important is what Craft can and will do against Taylor.

Lucky for us, it's also the most fascinating. This game is going to be awesome.

TL;DR game plan: Stretch Kansas' big men out to 15-20 feet, hope Buford makes some shots, protect the rim and stay out of foul trouble, unleash Craft on Taylor.

By Saturday, John Calipari, Rick Pitino, Thad Matta and Bill Self will have had nearly a week to scout their opponents. As we type, they're breaking down film, analyzing their opponents' strengths and weaknesses and searching for ways to impart this knowledge to their players in simple, digestible form. They are ... pause for dramatic effect ... game-planning.

What will each come up with? We don't exactly know. That's why they're coaches in the Final Four, and we are, you know, not. But we can still venture a guess. In the first of a two-part series, here's a look at what they may be coming up with.

Up first: Louisville vs. Kentucky

Kentucky Wildcats

Offense: All week Calipari has told his team -- at least, according to his public appearances -- he isn't worried about the rivalry, or winning a national championship, or any of the pressure UK fans can't help but place on a team that is expected by almost everyone to bring home the program's eighth national championship this season. Instead, Calipari says, he is worried only that UK "plays its best basketball."

This is an entirely appropriate approach. Simply put: When UK plays its best basketball, particularly on the offensive end of the floor, the Wildcats are essentially impossible to stop. We've seen as much in the tournament (UK scored an insane 1.27 points per possession in its four south region wins) and before it (when Kentucky scored 1.20 points per possession in its 16-0 SEC regular-season run).

What makes UK so good? It isn't any one thing. Stylistically, the Cats don't rely on any one trait; rather, via Ken Pomeroy, they rank in the top 20 in the nation in effective field goal percentage, turnover rate and offensive rebounding percentage. They can score in the half court and on the break; according to Synergy Sports Technologies scouting data, UK ranks in the 95th percentile in efficiency in half-court situations and the 87th percent in transition. Their most frequently used play type this season was the spot-up jumper, which they used on 22.5 percent of possessions, but Calipari's offense is diverse, utilizing ball screens, handoffs, cuts, isolations and straight post-ups throughout the season.

The only slight knock on this offense (if you can even call it that)? It was slightly worse against zone defenses than man defenses this season. Kentucky scored 0.971 points per possession against man-to-man in 2012. Its points per trip dropped slightly, to 0.956, against the zone. That's hardly a major drop-off.

When you have Marquis Teague and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Anthony Davis and Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb and Darius Miller, you can penetrate the lane, work off screens, dominate the boards, get easy buckets and knock down outside shots when needed. You don't have to change what you do for anybody, including the Louisville Cardinals.

One would imagine that is the real gist of Calipari's message this week: If we do what we do well, no one can keep us from scoring.

Defense: Kentucky's defense isn't as good as its offense. The Wildcats' real strength is scoring the rock, sure, but at No. 11 in the nation in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, UK guards well enough that it could be a merely decent offensive team and still be worthy of a trip to the Final Four.

Newsflash: Kentucky is really good.

The Wildcats' primary concern on the defensive end should be the prevention of transition buckets. That stems from the offense, of course, which means Marquis Teague and the rest of the Wildcats will have to limit their turnovers, grab offensive rebounds and recover back on defense before the Cardinals can get a head of steam. But it mostly means picking up on the secondary break.

Louisville would like nothing better than to get fast-break layups, of course, but it will be just as satisfied with pushing the pace on long rebounds and odd-man situations, finding trailing shooters and open men in the corner -- namely guard Kyle Kuric. Kentucky's primary focus, then, won't be on whether it can stop Louisville in the half court. Of course, it can. This defense is great; Louisville's half-court offense isn't. The Wildcats will have to focus almost entirely on making sure Louisville doesn't get shots off from long range.

If they do, even if Louisville's defense bogs them down, it's hard to imagine the Cardinals scoring frequently enough to keep this thing close. Can you picture it? Because I can't.

TL;DR game plan: Don't get flustered by pressure, run our stuff, do what we do. On defense, run everybody off the 3-point line. (Simple enough, right?)

Louisville Cardinals

Defense: Since the start of the Big East tournament, Louisville has won eight straight games, changed its style of play more than a few times, held opponents to a combined .88 points per trip and rocketed up Pomeroy's defensive efficiency rankings, where it currently sits at No. 1 overall.

In other words: If any defense in the country can slow Kentucky's offense right now, it's this one.

How will the Cardinals go about doing it?

According to Synergy, in the NCAA tournament, Louisville has played man on 152 possessions, or 57.6 percent of the time, and it has allowed just 0.737 points per trip to opponents. Pitino has used his zone on 112 possessions, or 42.4 percent of the time, when it has ceded 0.786 points per trip. (Those numbers are slightly skewed by that Florida first half, but they're valid all the same.) The Cardinals are at their weakest defensively in transition, where they've allowed 0.963 points per trip. But those possessions (just 27 in the tournament) have been few and far between.

So it is that Pitino has a series of choices to make. The man is rarely predictable, and his stylistic approach is never cut and dry. That's why his team is here: It can spring surprises (see Michigan State), change styles on the fly (see Florida) and execute almost anything Pitino asks. No wonder he loves this team so much.

So what does he choose? How does he seek to stop this juggernaut Kentucky attack?

The first is pressure: Louisville will almost certainly pressure full-court Teague and UK's other ball handlers after every made shot. There may not be many of those, but the pressure might apply to misses, too -- the more you can make the game difficult for Kentucky before the ball crosses half court, the better chance you have of upsetting their pristine, business-like offensive rhythm. Pitino may tell Smith and Siva to pressure the ball immediately, no matter what, to speed up the game, to create havoc in the backcourt and to wear on Teague (Kentucky's lone true point guard) as much as possible.

Once the ball crosses half court, he may have to resort to the zone. Kentucky can shoot it, no question, and it has the kinds of players capable of breaking down the zone off the dribble (and that's when the Anthony Davis and Terrence Jones lobs start flying in). But on a sheer man-to-man scale, Louisville can't match up, nor should it try. A hybrid matchup zone could turn Kentucky into a passing team, one that can't work off Calipari's screen-roll-replace and handoff action, one that helps to nullify touches in the post, one that prevents simple isolations for UK's brilliant scorers.

With a typical diet of effective slapping and digging, the turnovers may come. But if not, at least Louisville won't have to shade double-teams and work back to shooters and scramble around the court just to keep up.

Offense: Which is where the offense comes in. The game can never be approached merely as a two-sided affair; offense bleeds into defense and vice-versa for every team. But that's especially true for Louisville. And even more so for this game.

Simply put, the Cardinals are not a great offensive team. Their eight-game run to the Final Four hasn't changed that fact. Their most efficient scoring in the tournament (41 points in 30 possessions) has come in transition. In the half court, they've been merely OK, scoring 0.849 points per possession in 252 possessions.

The Cardinals' most frequently used half-court play -- a high ball screen -- has yielded just 0.739 points per trip in the tournament. They've achieved similar results with post-up plays and isolations. Indeed, Louisville's best offense has come when the game is moving. Of the 11 general play types Synergy tracks, the Cardinals are most efficient when finding cutters, battling for offensive rebounds, dishing to the screener off a pick-and-roll, on spot-ups and in "miscellaneous" plays, which usually involve some type of scramble around the rim.

Unlike its opponent, Louisville has to actively generate ways to score. And in this game, that means pace.

The Cardinals will look to run at every chance, and why not? They're better in transition, and you'd much rather try to score on Kentucky before Davis has a chance to get back to fully cordon off the middle of the lane. This strategy assumes you can turn the Wildcats over, or make them miss shots and get long rebounds. That's no easy feat. But it is the best chance Louisville has of putting up points on its opponents in any meaningful way. And hey, it worked for Indiana's offense. The Hoosiers just couldn't get a stop.

Besides, the other option -- a staid half-court game -- simply isn't going to work.

With pressure, a tricky zone, up-tempo attack and a scrambling style around the rim, the Cardinals can dictate the terms of the engagement. Against a team this good, with players this talented, that is Pitino's best chance of knocking off the rival Kentucky Wildcats. Even Malcolm Gladwell would have to agree.

TL;DR game plan: Pressure Teague whenever possible, switch into a matchup zone to make the Wildcats adjust, force the tempo at every opportunity, find open shooters on the secondary break, hope for the best.

BOSTON -- With a staff member steadying him, Thad Matta carefully and slowly stepped up the rungs of the ladder, taking extra care with his left foot, the one rendered numb and useless by back surgery gone awry.

The climb to snip the last piece of net was not easy for the Ohio State coach, but eventually Matta got there.

The same could be said for his team.

A group that everyone figured would ride Easy Street to the Final Four after Jared Sullinger announced he was returning for his sophomore season, instead took a long detour on the Highway to Hell, exasperating their coach so much that in late February he tossed them all out of practice.

But ladders are built with steps for a reason: to allow people to slowly reach heights they'd not otherwise realize.

For Dana O'Neil's full story from Ohio State's 77-70 win over Syracuse, click here.

BOSTON -- A quick take on No. 2 seed Ohio State’s 77-70 victory over No. 1 seed Syracuse in Elite Eight action in the East Regional at TD Garden on Saturday night:

Overview: Unfortunately, the officiating was more of a story in this one than anyone would’ve liked. There were some truly questionable calls, on both teams. And while these are two physical teams and there was always going to be some contact, the crew of John Higgins, Michael Nance and Thomas O’Neill was often far too willing to blow the whistle.

Jared Sullinger picked up two quick fouls in the first half and was limited to four points (2-for-4 shooting) and three rebounds in only six minutes. Syracuse had more personal fouls at the half (12) than it had made field goals (10).

The result was an uneven flow to the game, with lots of stops and starts and not as much back-and-forth action.

Turning point: It came late in the second half. Ohio State had taken a 10-point lead early in the half on a combination of Sullinger offense and Aaron Craft defense, and forced Syracuse to play from behind.

The Orange chip, chip, chipped away at the Buckeyes lead for the next few minutes, cutting it all the way to one. But every time the Buckeyes absolutely had to have a bucket, their big man was there. Sullinger managed to stay on the floor in the second half, and showed what he’s capable of when he can avoid the whistles.

After Brandon Triche hit a 3 to pull Syracuse within one at 55-54, Sullinger got the ball on the right block and threw in a turnaround jumper off the glass to keep Ohio State ahead.

He consistently got the ball in the post, didn’t shy away from the inevitable contact (and, yes, occasionally benefited from a questionable call) and made more of his foul shots than he missed (9-for-12).

And when Syracuse was mounting a furious charge late -- including a 3-point play by Dion Waiters that cut the Buckeyes’ lead to three with 33.1 remaining -- Sullinger got the ball on the inbounds, got fouled and made one of two free throws to give Ohio State a four-point lead.

That essentially booked the Buckeyes’ trip to the next round.

Key player: Sullinger. The big man was the difference in the second half, scoring 15 points and giving Ohio State a steady offensive presence with which to combat the vaunted Syracuse zone.

Key stat: Free throws. In a game dominated by physical play and riddled with whistles, it figured that the team with the better showing at the free throw line would have a big advantage.

While Syracuse actually shot a better percentage, 80 to 73.2, Ohio State took 17 more freebies (42-25) and made 11 more (31-20).

What’s next: For Ohio State, a trip to New Orleans. For Syracuse, a trip home.

Next Saturday in the Final Four, Ohio State will face the winner of Sunday's Midwest final between No. 2 seed Kansas and No. 1 seed North Carolina in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

It’s the 11th Final Four appearance for Ohio State, the second under Thad Matta, and the first since 2007, when the Buckeyes lost in the national championship game to Florida.

Jack McCluskey is an editor for ESPN.com and a frequent contributor to ESPNBoston.com. Follow him on Twitter @jack_mccluskey.

BOSTON – Somewhere, some clever Syracuse fan ought to grab a red cape, a magic marker, ink a Z on his chest and call himself The Zone.

In this NCAA tournament, the Zone (yes, it deserves to be capitalized) has grown to near-mythological proportions and taken on the aura and presence of a superhero, complete with superpowers.

How do you beat the Zone? Why do you play it? How unique is it? What makes it so hard?

It is everywhere, an all-consuming beast. In the two press conferences between Syracuse and Ohio State, on the eve of their Elite Eight match, the word zone was mentioned 50 times.

Heck, if the Orange win the national title, the Zone could earn Most Outstanding Player honors.

Here’s the dirty little secret: The Zone does not have superpowers, nor is Orange coach Jim Boeheim some evil scientist who has concocted something no one in basketball can duplicate.

The Syracuse coach is just committed (or stubborn, pick your word). He does not waver if teams are shooting well against the Zone (as Wisconsin did) and he does not give his players the option of man-to-man defense.

Ever.

“They buy into it because they want to play,’’ Boeheim laughed. "These guys know what we want to do, what we’re about. They work hard at it.’’

Boeheim, in fact, is tickled at people’s preoccupation with his defense, as if he’s unearthed some sort of relic from the peach-basket days.

“It’s always funny to me,’’ he said. “You never hear anybody yelling at Mike Krzyzewski to go back and play zone. Why is that? He’s such a good coach, you don’t question him? Is that what it is? Really? Somebody shook their head down there. OK, that means I’m not a good coach, so you can question me.’’

Thad Matta would beg to differ. The Ohio State coach will be the next to attempt to slay the Zone, on Saturday night, and while he knows conventional wisdom holds the easiest way to beat a good zone is to shoot 3s, he also watched Wisconsin drain 14 and lose.

“A couple of years ago I heard what I thought was the greatest answer from Coach Boeheim,’’ Matta said. “Somebody asked him, 'What do you do when somebody gets really hot against your zone and they’re making 3s?' He said, ‘How do you know they’re not going to make them against man-to-man?’ He has his philosophy and he’s only won 900 or however many games he’s won. It works for him.’’

Whom to watch

William Buford, Ohio State: Matta went out of his way to commend his senior for his defensive effort against Cincinnati. And it was deserved. It also was welcome deflection from Buford’s offensive woes.

The Sweet 16 has not been kind to Buford. He has played in that round three consecutive seasons and is 8-of-37, including an absentee 1-of-8 against the Bearcats on Thursday.

This season, however, is Buford's first appearance in the Elite Eight. Ohio State needs him to run with the clean start.

Wisconsin offered a nice little road map for their Big Ten brethren in terms of beating the Syracuse zone– hit 3s. Now, expecting Ohio State to be as red-hot as the Badgers is probably silly, but the Buckeyes do have shooters.

Which is where Buford comes in. He’s one of those shooters and he needs to make those 3s.

“The great thing about William is he usually bounces back,’’ Matta said. “Hopefully the odds say tomorrow some higher percentage will be going in for him. But yeah, we need Will to play well.’’

Scoop Jardine, Syracuse: One of Syracuse’s hidden strengths this season is its ability to take care of the basketball. The Orange are eighth in the country, committing just 10.5 turnovers per game.

That number will meet its match in the form of Aaron Craft. Arguably the best on-the-ball defender in the country, Ohio State's sophomore guard is a relentless gnat who not only swats at the ball but also frustrates his opponent into mistakes.

Jardine, typically the primary ball handler for Syracuse, had been very good until Thursday’s regional semifinal against Wisconsin when the senior coughed up the ball five times.

That can’t happen against Craft. Ohio State will turn those miscues into points – the Buckeyes got 20 points off turnovers against Cincinnati – but more crucially, OSU is quite content in a grind-it-out, half-court game. If Jardine turns it over, that means more chances for Ohio State to dictate the tempo.

What to watch

This could be the first time that Syracuse feels sorely the absence of Fab Melo. Rakeem Christmas and Baye Keita have done a more than admirable job for the Orange through this NCAA tournament run, but in their first three games, the duo has not faced anything quite like Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas.

The two are big, strong and armed with an arsenal of scoring touches. Most crucially for Christmas and Keita, Sullinger and Thomas help Ohio State rack up a plus-7.6 rebounding edge, good for sixth in the country — and good for lots of extended possessions. Christmas and Keita will have their work cut out for them in this game.

“James [Southerland] and C.J. [Fair] are going to have to help us,’’ Orange forward Kris Joseph said of defending the Ohio State big men. “It’s going to be the weakside man on the back of the zone that’s going to be able to help the most when [they] get the ball down low. If Rakeem does a good enough job, we won’t need to, but it’s going to be our job definitely to give him a lot of help.’’

BOSTON -- A quick look at No. 2 seed Ohio State’s 81-66 win over No. 6 seed Cincinnati in Sweet 16 action in the East Regional at TD Garden on Thursday night:

Overview: Both teams were looking to take advantage of mismatches. Cincinnati hoped its four-guard lineup would cause problems for the bigger Ohio State lineup. Ohio State hoped its size and skill inside would prove overpowering.

Turns out, both teams were right at times.

Deshaun Thomas had scored 30 points in the paint in Ohio State’s first two tourney games, the most in the Dance. So of course the 6-foot-7, 225-pounder took his game outside on Thursday -- hitting 3 of 5 first-half 3-pointers and scoring 20 points in the opening 20 minutes.

But in the second half, the Bearcats turned up the intensity on defense and started hitting shots, their guards using their quickness to cause turnovers and score in transition. Sean Kilpatrick hit a long 2, then a 3, then another 3 and suddenly the 6-seed was back in it.

Turning point: Cincinnati scored the game’s first five points, but Ohio State scored 15 of the next 19 to take control. The Buckeyes led by as many as 13 in the first half and were up a dozen at the break.

Thad Matta’s bunch was 26-1 this season when leading at the half, so this one was in the bag, right?

Cincinnati had other ideas.

The Bearcats used a 14-2 run early in the second half to even the game at 41, then an 8-4 run to take their largest lead since the opening minutes at 49-45 with 12:13 to go.

But after Yancy Gates converted an old-fashioned three-point play to put Cincinnati up 52-48, Ohio State went back to its strength inside. Jared Sullinger got fouled in the paint and hit two free throws, sparking a 17-1 Buckeyes run that essentially ended the drama in this one.

Key player: Jared Sullinger. While Thomas fueled the Buckeyes in the first half, he wasn’t nearly as effective in the second. Luckily for OSU, Sullinger was just as effective in the final 20 minutes as he was in the first 20 minutes.

The sophomore big man followed up a 10-point, nine-rebound first half with a 13-point, 2-rebound second half to post final line of 23 and 11.

Key stats: Second-chance points and free throws.

Ohio State took advantage of its size inside, and its willingness to crash the offensive boards, to compile a 13-5 edge in second-chance points.

And while points in the paint were relatively similar (30 for OSU, 28 for Cincinnati), the Buckeyes’ banging inside helped them get to the line often. Led by Sullinger’s 9-for-10 performance, OSU shot 19-for-27 from the charity stripe on the night.

What’s next: Ohio State moves on to the Elite Eight on Saturday. The Buckeyes will face No. 1 seed Syracuse, which beat No. 4 seed Wisconsin in a thriller 64-63 in the first game Thursday.

Jack McCluskey is an editor for ESPN.com and a frequent contributor to ESPNBoston.com. Follow him on Twitter @jack_mccluskey.

PITTSBURGH -- Quick thoughts on Ohio State’s 78-59 win over Loyola in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

Overview: UNC Asheville gave the underdogs hope here, pushing Syracuse to the limit before losing.

Ohio State was not going to let Pittsburgh turn into the land of the dreamers. The Buckeyes did not make this complicated, giving the ball to their big guys down low and getting out of the way, Jimmy Patsos' biggest fears realized.

“I see Ohio State having a chance to go to the Final Four because of their size,’’ he said on Wednesday.

DeShaun Thomas and Jared Sullinger combined for 43 points and worked the Greyhounds over on the boards. The two had 22 of Ohio State’s 49 rebounds, which was 25 more than undersized Loyola.

Only a late -- very late -- rally even allowed this one to get closer in the final box score. It forced Thad Matta to reinsert his starters after pulling them early in the game.

That end-of-game hiccup aside, this win continues an impressive late-season rally for a Buckeyes team that looked to be losing its way in February. Sullinger came back to win a national title, a goal that looked to be out of reach amid in-house issues midseason. But Ohio State has reeled off five wins in its past six games, the lone misstep being that incredible Big Ten tournament title game.

The Buckeyes are a No. 2 seed in name only.

Turning point: Not much of one here, as the Buckeyes did what high seeds are supposed to do to low seeds. They took control early and never really allowed the Greyhounds to pose much of a threat. By halftime the lead was 11 and Ohio State stepped on the gas from there. Matta, like most coaches, wasn't thrilled afterward, picking apart the Buckeyes' turnovers (they had 18), but it was of little consequence in a game they won easily.

Key player: Thomas was a matchup disaster for Loyola, which could match neither his power nor his athleticism. The sophomore scored a career high 31. He had 12 rebounds to complete the double-double, slicing and dicing his way to the basket with almost fluid ease. Aside from when he sees the green of Draymond Green and Michigan State (Thomas was 9-of-24 in the regular-season finale and Big Ten title game), Thomas has been terrific lately, scoring 20 or more five times in the Buckeyes’ past nine games.

Key stat: Not so much a stat but a pace. The Buckeyes got exactly what they wanted -- a grind-it-out, half-court game that kept Loyola’s up-tempo game in check. Loyola had zero fast-break points, completely contrary to the style Patsos was hoping he could force on Ohio State. It was grind-out, Big Ten basketball at its best and an impossible recipe for the Greyhounds to digest.

Miscellaneous: Patsos was facing an old coworker and good friend. Dave Dickerson is an assistant on Matta’s bench. Dickerson and Patsos coached together as assistants to Gary Williams. Patsos joked before the game that Dickerson would know his every play, since he’s pretty faithful to Williams’ old flex offense.

Next game: The No. 2-seeded Buckeyes face Gonzaga in the third round on Saturday, which should make for a few fun matchups to watch -- namely freshman point guard Kevin Pangos against sophomore Aaron Craft, and Robert Sacre against Sullinger down low.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Jared Sullinger admits that Ohio State didn’t always acknowledge its vulnerabilities during a tough stretch in February that featured three losses in five games, a rare lull under Thad Matta.

The practices weren’t as crisp as expected, either. Players didn’t complete key tasks. And the overall effort was subpar at times.

“We took a lot of games for granted. And we didn’t play hard,” Sullinger said following his team’s 77-55 win over Michigan in the Big Ten tournament semifinals Saturday.

But these Buckeyes walloped the Wolverines and did not resemble the team that drew criticism last month.

The Buckeyes played like the dominant crew that earned a slot in many prognosticators' preseason Final Four brackets. They competed like the team that destroyed Duke in November and won six consecutive Big Ten games from Jan. 15 through Feb. 7 (three against nationally ranked opponents).

They started their win over Michigan with a 16-3 run. Then, they got serious and seized a shot at their third consecutive Big Ten tourney title in a Sunday matchup against Michigan State with one of their most impressive outings of the year. They took a 20-point lead five minutes into the second half.

A Wolverines team that beat the Buckeyes by five in Ann Arbor on Feb. 18 didn’t have a chance at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Michigan shot 4-for-25 from the 3-point line.

Trey Burke, who scored 30 points in a quarterfinal victory over Minnesota, only produced five points (1-for-11) against the Buckeyes.

The latter’s four-game winning streak has showcased their talent and their evolution from the squad that endured that tough sequence in February.

Sullinger said those losses taught the Buckeyes a lesson and made them take a more focused approach to each game.

“When we had that ‘bad’ month of February, we just took off. We took off from there,” said Sullinger, who scored 24 points against the Wolverines. “It’s just win and advance. Win and advance and keep going.”

The Buckeyes are better because Deshaun Thomas is better. The sophomore has scored 19 or more in five of his team’s past six games. He had 22 against Michigan.

Sullinger scored 17 points combined in two games in late February. He’s been on a mean streak since then. He’s recorded three double-doubles in the past four games and put that late-February anomaly behind him.

The Buckeyes are also playing tough defense and getting quality minutes from reserves (Evan Ravenel scored six points in 16 minutes against the Wolverines).

“We play our best basketball when we don't rely on one person to try to score a lot of points. And we're playing great on the defensive end, and everyone's talking, everyone's into the game,” guard Aaron Craft said. “I think we're starting to understand that's where we're at our best and that's what we need to do for however many games we have left to play, just continuing to go out there, have fun, be positive with each other, and enjoy it.”

Ohio State has thrust itself back into the national championship conversation again. There were stretches in February when the Buckeyes’ postseason potential was questioned. But their display in Indianapolis has offered reminders about how good the Buckeyes can be if they play together.

Matta can only explain part of Ohio State’s late push.

Specific tweaks like switching up Thomas’ pregame routine so that he’s ready to go before tipoff and not using the early part of the game to get warmed up have helped. He also said that Michigan State losing to Indiana in the final full week of the regular season and opening the door for Ohio State to win a share of the Big Ten title may have reinvigorated the Buckeyes.

Regardless of what’s clicked for Ohio State, it’s a promising turn for one of the best teams in the country.

“We have a very good togetherness right now, a very good understanding of how we want to play, what we want do, how we want do it, and I think those are the things that we've been striving for all season,” Matta said. “And it's good to see, over the course of the last couple weeks, just the energy and the enthusiasm this team has had. And I think it carries over to the court for us as well.”

Sunday’s game is a matchup between the Big Ten’s best. Perhaps the winner will earn a No. 1 seed. But even if the matchup doesn’t shift the NCAA tournament bracket, it’s still an opportunity for the Buckeyes to build more mojo and continue to prove that they’re an elite team with the goods to reach New Orleans.

They also want to end the discussion about the Big Ten’s hierarchy after Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan shared the regular-season crown.

“It’s all about who wants to win the Big Ten outright,” he said.

One of the differences between the Buckeyes team that struggled in February and the one that traveled to Indianapolis is that Ohio State has pounced on its two conference tournament opponents when given the opportunity. The Buckeyes beat Purdue by 17 points in the quarterfinals Friday.

That victory and Saturday’s win over Michigan displayed the kind of cutthroat basketball that could lead to a win Sunday and March Madness success for the Buckeyes.

They’ve found their killer instinct at the right time.

“We know [Sunday’s matchup against the Spartans] is going to be a battle," Thomas said, "and we just want to come in and try to hit them first, like we've been doing for these last two games."

EVANSTON, Ill. -- Was it too much to ask?

Was it too much to hope that just one time -- this time -- would be Northwestern's turn as fate's chosen beneficiary? Was it too much to think that maybe, despite all the reasons to believe the contrary, the Wildcats might just catch a break? Could Northwestern fans, besieged constantly by reminders of their program's historic futility, finally feel the freedom of belief?

The short answer? No.

"It's very tough," Northwestern guard Drew Crawford said.

"Disappointing," forward John Shurna said. "Kind of a tough way to go out."

Wednesday night was Shurna's senior night, an honor he shared with Davide Curletti, Nick Fruendt and Luka Mirkovic. Shurna & Co. are the school's all-time winningest class, one that also set a school record with three consecutive postseason appearances.

Of course, none of those postseasons has been of the NCAA tournament variety, which is why Wednesday night's game was so much more than a disappointing loss, so much more than an emotional senior night spoiled by a 75-73 defeat.

Indeed, the game against Ohio State was one of the biggest in Northwestern's history. That title is fresh, because we said the same exact thing in the wake of Feb. 21's home loss to Michigan. And we could say the same again Saturday, when Northwestern travels to Iowa to play its regular-season finale. At this point, every game Northwestern plays is abnormally important for reasons that go beyond conference record or pride or graduating seniors or even a one-year bubble scenario.

Why? You know why: The Wildcats are still searching for their first-ever NCAA tournament bid. This is the only team in a major conference to never visit the NCAA tournament. You have heard about this ignominious distinction more than a few times in the past few weeks (and months and years) because it's impossible to talk about this program without dwelling on its unique, defining story of woe.

Wednesday night was merely another page in that book. At first, the action looked predictable enough. After a quick six minutes of dominant interior play and hot shooting, a focused and freewheeling Ohio State team -- one that looked vastly different from the weekend's home loss to Wisconsin -- had opened an 18-8 lead. By the five-minute mark, the lead was 30-18.

Just before the half, it was all the way up to 39-26, before Shurna made a 3 to cut the deficit to 10, but no matter. Clearly, the Buckeyes were in control.

Ohio State was moving the ball seamlessly against Northwestern's zone, using skip passes and penetration to find easy first looks. Better yet, when the first looks didn't drop, OSU forwards Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas pounced. Together, they combined for 15 offensive rebounds (and 28 total) and carried the Bucks to an eye-popping offensive rebounding percentage of 62.5 percent.

Northwestern -- for which Shurna, who shoots nearly as many 3s as 2s, counts as an interior player, and a team that plays 6-foot-1 guard David Sobolewski in the baseline of its 1-3-1 zone -- had nothing remotely close to an answer.

"They destroyed us on the backboards," Northwestern coach Bill Carmody said.

His team's only answer was hope: hope that enough 3s went down to stay within striking distance, hope that Ohio State caught a few bad bounces, hope that the game was just close enough to steal in the end. Lo and behold, that's exactly what happened. The Wildcats gradually cut OSU's lead throughout the second half, first to six, then to five, then to four.

And although Ohio State seemed to have an answer each and every time -- an Aaron Craft 3 here, a Sullinger putback there -- the Cats, led by Shurna and a 13-of-27 mark from 3, and aided by said bad bounces (and a huge JerShon Cobb steal), found themselves down by three. With the ball. With 16 seconds to play.

You've probably already seen what happened next. Guard Alex Marcotullio, against the advice of his better angels, launched what felt like a 30-foot 3. Like all great last-second shots, it seemed to hang in the air forever before splashing through the net and sending Welsh-Ryan Arena into convulsions of euphoria and disbelief.

The only problem: There still were 7 seconds on the scoreboard and Thad Matta called a timeout, and before you could realize it -- before Welsh-Ryan could process what was happening -- Craft was sprinting down the court and heaving the ball ahead to Sullinger, who had established the perfect position to quickly turn and score with his right hand, and now there's 3 seconds left, and Shurna is hoisting a half-court shot that hits the front of the rim and misses, and ... wait. What just happened?

A cynical fan -- or an out-and-out jerk -- probably would say Northwestern happened. This is what Northwestern does, especially in recent seasons. It takes its fans to the brink, to the point of ecstatic belief, before revealing some fresh new horror.

Frankly, if the aforementioned cynic said this to you, it'd be pretty difficult to disagree.

But while the short answer above might have been "no," it was impossible to talk to Crawford and Shurna after the game and not sense some lack of emotional weight. Both were positive, even upbeat, or at least as upbeat as a human being can be after what they had just seen. (Before shooting the above video, I cursorily asked Shurna, "How's it going?" His response: "Ha. I've been better." Note to self: Never use that phrase on a dreary Monday morning again.)

"Obviously it's tough," Crawford said, "but we played great down toward the end of the game, and we're all proud of our team. I think we're a resilient bunch, and we'll be ready to go on Saturday."

Maybe Shurna and Crawford are used to all the will-they-or-won't-they talk by now. Maybe they've chosen to ignore it. It was surely no surprise that every question, press-room murmur and speculative amateur bracketologism Wednesday night dwelled on whether this team would be the one to finally, mercifully end college basketball's most infamous streak.

It was the first question Matta faced when he sat down for his postgame news conference: Is Northwestern a tournament team?

"Yeah," Matta said. "Oh yeah. ... I know this. I would hate on Selection Sunday to have Northwestern come across, to have to play them."

Shurna was quizzed about how, with so much pressure and bubble speculation compounding in the final week of the season, his team could rebound. ("Gotta win," he said.) Crawford was asked whether Wednesday's loss "proved" anything to the selection committee about Northwestern's makeup.

"I don't think a loss means too much," he said, flashing a better understanding of the selection process than his inquisitor.

The truth is, a loss doesn't mean much, if anything. The good news, however, is this: Other bubble teams lost Wednesday night, too, and in Joe Lunardi's most recent bracket update, the Wildcats were still listed as the last team in the tournament. Nothing is guaranteed, but in Northwestern's case, that's a good thing. The Cats might not be safely in the tournament, the way they would have been had Shurna's final prayer been answered, had Matta and and Craft and Sullinger not so ruthlessly executed their final four-second game winner. But this group isn't obviously out of the field, either.

"Had we won the game, it would have been a great win for us," Crawford said. "But that's not really going to keep us down at all. We're excited to finish this season strong. And it starts in practice tomorrow."

And so another five days -- or 11 days -- of bubble speculation will continue. Can this star-crossed program get it done? Can Shurna go out on something more than disappointment? Can Northwestern fans, against all reason and rationale and evidence to the contrary, dare to believe?

The short answer, at least Wednesday night, was no.

But the long answer? Let's wait and see.

It's a testament to the program Thad Matta has built that after three losses in its last five games — all three of which came to top-25 teams, one of which came on the road — that we would even think of broaching the above question. Another testament to Matta's program: After Wisconsin held off the Buckeyes in Columbus Sunday, they, along with coach Bo Ryan, celebrated the 63-60 win as if it had earned them a one-way ticket to the Final Four. (And hilariously so.)

In other words: Let's keep some perspective here. Perspective is good. Perspective is important. Ohio State is still one of the nation's most talented teams, with one of the nation's best defenses, playing in the nation's best basketball conference, losing to some of the nation's best 15 or 20 teams. And now, with all those contextual caveats out of the way, I'll ask again:

What happened to Ohio State?

It's clear that something is wrong. We can start with the frustrations and recriminations surrounding this team's chemistry: After Sunday's loss, Matta revealed that he had to throw his team out of Saturday's practice because it wasn't focused and ready for Sunday's game. Matta called out his team "maybe as much as he ever has in his eight years in Columbus," the Cleveland Plain-Dealer's Doug Lesmerises wrote Monday:

"I think at times they don't understand what I see in our approach," Matta said. "As we said, guys have got to look themselves in the mirror and come back and be ready to go."

Asked if it was a function of the immaturity of his young team, which includes four sophomores and a senior in the starting lineup and five freshmen, two sophomores and junior on the bench, Matta said, "No, because my freshmen always come to practice. They do a great job. Honestly, I don't know the answer."

This is hardly encouraging stuff. Nor is senior guard William Buford's assessment: "It's real concerning," Buford told the Plain-Dealer. "We should be together by now." When you've got your coach and senior leader talking like that, and you've got Deshaun Thomas fending off haters on Twitter, it's clear this team is missing some key intangible ingredients. Basketball is a game of chemistry. The Buckeyes appear to be missing that indefinable elixir -- and this late in the season calendar, no less — is certainly troubling in and of itself.

But I'd wager that whatever chemistry issues Ohio State is having would probably vanish pretty quickly if the Buckeyes hadn't lost three out of their last five. In other words, "lack of chemistry" isn't a catch-all root cause. "Lack of overpowering offense" seems much closer to the truth.

Ohio State offensive points per possession, last three losses:
vs. Michigan State: 0.75 ppp
at Michigan: 0.89 ppp
vs. Wisconsin: 1.0 ppp

The Wisconsin game is a bit of an outlier, because — and maybe this is where the chemistry thing comes in — the Buckeyes allowed Wisconsin to score 1.05 points per trip. That's hardly overwhelming, but the Buckeyes have found solace in their defense all season: They've allowed just four Big Ten opponents to break the one-point-per-possession barrier and have, for much of this season, had the best adjusted efficiency defense in both the Big Ten and in the country. That is no longer the case Monday, as Michigan State's brilliant defense overtook Ohio State in conference defensive efficiency standings, but the point remains: Ohio State has for most of the season been one of nation's best defensive teams, if not the best. When the Buckeyes have struggled, especially lately, it's because their offense has failed to maintain the pace.

This is actually pretty easy to explain: The Buckeyes badly miss Jon Diebler, because Jon Diebler never missed.

(See what I did there? Right. Just making sure.)

Remember last year's Buckeyes? The 2011 edition had much of the same personnel as this year's group, with one exception: The 2011 team had Diebler, who ended the season as the nation's overall leader in offensive rate (140.6, which is ridiculous) and true shooting percentage (72.6 percent, also ridiculous) with the No. 2 effective field goal percentage in the country (70.6 percent, which, again, you get the idea). Diebler's all-court marksmanship was indispensable, not just because it's always good to have a guy who makes 50.2 percent of his 3s (duh), but because the tandem of Jared Sullinger's dominant low-post game and Diebler's presence on the wing forced opponents to make a choice: Double Sully and leave Diebler open, or stay on Dieber, rotate with help, and/or let Sullinger go to work on the low block. The presence of senior forward David Lighty — a 42 percent 3-point shooter in his own right, and one of the nation's best defenders and glue guys — shouldn't be discounted here, either, because Lighty, alongside Diebler and Buford, gave Sullinger a host of kickout options to keep defenses honest.

As a result, Ohio State led the nation in 3-point field goal percentage last season (42.3 percent). The Buckeyes' 3s accounted for 32.7 percent of their total field goals, and they racked up an assist on 55.1 percent of their made buckets. That killer one-in, four-out lineup was devastating: It lit up opposing defenses to the tune of a 125.6 adjusted efficiency mark (per Pomeroy) the nation's highest in 2011, and until Kentucky forward Josh Harrelson played one of the games of his life against Sullinger in Kentucky's Sweet 16 win, the Buckeyes' well-oiled machine looked every bit the type capable of steamrolling to a national title.

In 2012, in the immortal words of Christopher Wallace, things done changed. Ohio State's assists-to-makes ratio is down to 55.1 percent. It is shooting threes just 26 percent of the time. And, most important, those threes don't drop: The 2012 Buckeyes are shooting 33.3 percent from long range. They've gone from the nation's leader in 3-point FG percentage to, as of Monday, No. 218.

The inside-out attack that made 2011's team so very lethal is, for all intents and purposes, gone. Diebler's loss is the main reason, and Lighty's is next in line, but it certainly hasn't helped that Buford, a 44 percent 3-point shooter in 2011, is making just 37.9 percent in 2012. Thomas (34 percent) and freshman point guard Aaron Craft (35 percent) haven't picked up the slack. In fact, the team's leader in 3-point FG percentage is — believe it or not — Sullinger, who has made 11-of-28 from 3, or 39.3 percent, this season.

If you needed one quick, easily digestible reason why Ohio State's offense has lagged in 2011, well, there you go: The man whose low-post game keyed countless open threes in 2011 is currently the Buckeyes' best bet to make a long-range shot.

Buford's struggles have been a main focus all season for Ohio State fans, and rightfully so: The guard has been inconsistent all year, and some of his worst nights in the past few weeks have coincided with the Buckeyes' losses. Against Michigan State, Buford went 2-of-12 from the field. Against Michigan, he was 3-of-12. On Sunday, he went 4-of-11. Buford entered this season with the opportunity to be Ohio State's go-to scorer, to carry much of the offensive load on the perimeter, to be a slightly more versatile, slightly less accurate, but altogether more creative version of the Diebler-Lighty combo used to such great effect in 2011. Things haven't gone according to plan.

All of which is a long, statistically peppered way of saying this: The Buckeyes appear to have chemistry issues, but which came first? The lackluster offense, or the lackluster chemistry? I'll take offense. The Buckeyes need to come together off the court, and soon. But more crucial is their need for effective, efficient scoring without 3s.

That team is gone now. (Jon Diebler isn't walking through that door.) In its place is a squad with an even better defense, but one that simply can't score in the same ways it did in 2011. This team isn't suddenly going to get hot. Smart opponents like Michigan State and Michigan and Wisconsin have watched the tape, looked at the numbers you just read, realized as much, and begun scouting and game-planning OSU accordingly. The jig is up; the word is out. Sink in on Sullinger. This team can't shoot.

The good news? OSU's defense is still, you know, really good. The bad news? If the Buckeyes don't find a way to get easier baskets, their chances of fulfilling the dream Sullinger laid out when he returned to Columbus as a sophomore — the 2012 national title — only look less likely.

It's Feb. 27. Selection Sunday is in two weeks. The Buckeyes have that much time to figure out whatever chemistry problems are infecting their practices. But they'd be just as well-served by figuring out how to score consistently with this offense.

That's the real issue here. And it isn't nearly as easy to fix.