College Basketball Nation: UCLA Bruins

After Friday night's 62-56 loss at Colorado, UCLA coach Steve Alford was asked to assess the play of his son, Bryce Alford. After praising his son's effort and defense, the father cautiously admitted that his son's eight points on 2-of-16 shooting -- including 0-for-9 from 3 -- had at least something to do with shot selection.

"There were some ill-advised shots," Alford said. "He wants to do so well. There were some tough shots. We've had several guys take some tough shots, and that's what we've been working on -- working on our offense more to where we are attacking the rim and going inside-out."

Two days later, Utah blew the Bruins off the floor. The final score was 71-39; UCLA never cut the lead to fewer than 30 points in the game's final eight minutes. It was the Bruins' fifth straight loss. In their past four games -- beginning with that legendary 41-to-7-at-the-half thrashing by Kentucky in Chicago -- UCLA has scored 189 points in 270 possessions, good for .07 points per trip.

Alford finished with zero points on 0-of-10 shooting, and making him the reliable fulcrum of fans' anger, but he was hardly alone: UCLA shot just 1-of-11 from 3 and just 14-of-41 from 2, and it attempted just 15 free throws. Even if you assumed that a lagging, frustrating offense playing on the road against one of the nation's best defenses on the road would yield something ugly, the actual result exceeded all expectations.

The question now isn't whether the 2014-15 UCLA Bruins have problems. They do, and how. The question is: Which of them can Steve Alford fix?

On Sunday, Alford said his players simply needed to get off the road and back into Pauley Pavilion, "where our guys practice every day," and where they would receive an immediate boost of confidence that would in turn translate into more accurate shooting.

Unfortunately, the Bruins' issues go far deeper than confidence on the catch. Chief among them -- the one identified all the way back in the summer -- is a distinct lack of depth. Beyond the starters (guards Bryce Alford, Isaac Hamilton and Norman Powell and forwards Kevon Looney and Tony Parker), only seven-foot freshman Thomas Welsh has earned more than 33 percent of the team's available minutes. This goes beyond fatigue or matchup problems: When his guys aren't playing well, or when a punitive benching might be in order, Alford is essentially stuck.

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Kelly Lambert/USA TODAY SportsBryce Alford, who is leading the Bruins with 15.7 points per game, has had some troubles shooting the ball during UCLA's five-game losing streak.
That's one problem that can't be fixed, at least this season. Another, as Yahoo!'s Jeff Eisenberg pointed out Sunday, is UCLA's lack of an actual point guard. A year ago, the Bruins were embarrassed with backcourt riches, 6-foot-7 point-forward Kyle Anderson chief among them. With Anderson, Jordan Adams, and would-be star sophomore guard Zach LaVine all gone to the NBA, Bryce Alford remains the team's most viable point guard option. The problem is that he isn't really a point guard. As Jeff wrote, "he has a volume shooter's mentality and lacks the court vision, shot selection and ability to create off the dribble the point guard position demands."

The worth of a "true" point guard is often overstated (and based on vague measures in the first place). You don't have to be mid-1990s Mark Jackson if you're effective. By any standard, though, Bryce Alford has struggled, no doubt in part thanks to the increased workload he has been handed. Even when his shot is falling (as it was earlier in the season) few would argue that he or Powell or Hamilton actively make their teammates better.

Then again, this problem may not be quite as intractable as it seems. Alford already recognizes it: UCLA's offense can only improve if it plays inside out.

Parker, Looney and Walsh represent a genuine challenge for opposing defenses, a three-man crew of forwards whose rebounding commands effort and attention. Looney, a five-star prospect, has been great around the rim, long and active with impressive finishing finesse. But he's been the focus of a post-up play just 16 times all season, according to Synergy scouting data. Even Welsh, who plays fewer minutes, has him beat (19 possessions), while Parker has earned the lion's share of post-ups (72 possessions). All together, UCLA has thrown the ball into the block on just 10.5 percent of its offensive possessions this season. That number has to go up. The touches should go to Looney. Maybe the defense has to double, or at least sink to the middle, a little bit more.

There's a potential knock-on effect here: Powell has been a good spot-up shooter all season, and he could benefit from stepping into a few more kick-outs. Alford is better on the catch than he's shown this season: He was a 39 percent 3-point shooter a year ago, when he initiated far fewer possessions, and he has an excellent feel for the mid-range runner. Hamilton is shooting 39 percent from 3 this season, and he can attack the rim off the dribble, too.

These are all workable qualities, but they've gone missing in the past three weeks. Instead, UCLA's offense has stagnated while Alford dribbles, before quickly abandoning whatever set it wanted to run in favor of a simple high screen-and-roll. The ball doesn't move. Players don't move. A shot goes up, and Looney and Parker try to rebound it, and the whole thing kind of looks like those boring pickup games between players who have never met one another before. Everyone just kind of stands around. Even if Looney isn't Hakeem Olajuwon on the low block, it can't possibly get much worse.

A few tweaks won't suddenly make the Bruins' 130th-ranked efficiency offense one to fear. It won't add players to Steve Alford's bench. It won't turn Bryce Alford into Kendall Marshall. But fewer shots from the perimeter, and more from the post -- plus a dash of ball movement, cooked until crisp -- could at least tilt UCLA's hull away from disaster.

Or maybe not! Only one thing's for sure: If there are answers to UCLA's problems, they're going to require a whole lot more than confidence.

3-point shot: Will Doug Wojcik recruit?

July, 7, 2014

Andy Katz discusses College of Charleston coach Doug Wojcik's status in recruiting, what UCLA coach Steve Alford needs from son Bryce, and Illinois' offseason training.

Best Offensive Teams in 2014-15

July, 7, 2014
The 2014-15 campaign, believe it or not, will begin in a few months. Don't worry, college basketball fans. It's coming.

Today, we'll take a look at next year's top offensive teams -- and a few programs that could use some help -- entering the upcoming season.

Teams to Watch

Duke -- Yes, Jabari Parker is gone. The No. 2 pick in last month's NBA draft, the new star for the Milwaukee Bucks, averaged a ridiculous 19.1 points and 8.7 rebounds, while making 36 percent of his 3-pointers for Duke in 2013-14. With Parker in charge, the Blue Devils averaged 79.1 points per game (26th nationally) and finished second in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. But they could be even better next year. And that plan starts inside.

Jahlil Okafor, the 6-10,265-pound center who was the No. 1 recruit in the 2014 class per RecruitingNation, will be a force in the post for Mike Krzyzewski. As teams collapse on him, he'll have plenty of options. Rasheed Sulaimon moves back to a full-time role on the perimeter. Freshmen Justise Winslow and Grayson Allen will contribute immediately. Veterans Quinn Cook, Marshall Plumlee and Amile Jefferson are back, too.

Duke will have the benefit of being led by the top point guard in the incoming class: Tyus Jones. Jones was born to be a Duke point guard. His efficiency and poise could transform Duke into America's best offensive unit next season.

Wisconsin -- Remember when Wisconsin couldn't score? That wasn't true, but it was the perception. Under Bo Ryan, the Badgers had been pegged as a grind-it-out squad that couldn't run with the top offensive teams in the country. But last year's Final Four run dismissed that idea.

Wisconsin faced Oregon, Baylor, Arizona and Kentucky in the Big Dance. All four opponents were top-20 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings last year. The Badgers were the better offensive team against three of those teams -- vs. Oregon (1.31 points per possession), vs. Baylor (1.11 PPP) and vs. Arizona (1.05 PPP) -- and the Wildcats beat the Badgers (No. 4 in adjusted offensive efficiency in 2013-14) on Aaron Harrison's big 3-pointer in the final seconds.

The key players from that run and a team that scored 75 points or more in eight of its 12 Big Ten wins are back. Frank Kaminsky will be a preseason All-American and national player of the year candidate. He's the toughest one-on-one matchup in the country. Sam Dekker is an NBA prospect and one of the best small forward's in America. Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig are ready for bigger roles next year. Josh Gasser and Traevon Jackson are the leaders in the backcourt. Ryan has the offensive firepower to tussle with America's best again.

Kentucky -- Many predicted the Kentucky national title game run before the 2013-14 season began, questioned that prediction throughout the bulk of the year and lauded it as the Wildcats improved each night in the final weeks of the season. It all came together for John Calipari's squad at the right time. Those young NBA prospects who couldn't get past Arkansas and South Carolina weeks before the tourney began ended the year as the national runner-up and likely No. 1 team in the 2014-15 preseason polls for the second consecutive season. Once the Big Dance began, Kentucky's fiery offense helped the Wildcats storm through the toughest gauntlet in the field. Kansas State, Wichita State, Louisville, Michigan and Wisconsin all fell.

They scored 78 points against the Shockers. They bounced back from a 13-point deficit against their rival Cardinals. They hit big shots late against Michigan and Wisconsin.

And now, they're back with NCAA tourney stars Aaron Harrison and Andrew Harrison. Willie Cauley-Stein will be healthy. Alex Poythress will be a junior. Plus, they'll boast the nation's most powerful frontcourt (Cauley-Stein, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee and freshmen Trey Lyles and Karl Towns). The Wildcats will also add Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis, a pair of guards who will enhance Kentucky's backcourt.

These Wildcats will have more inside-outside balance and depth than last year's team. They'll spread the floor. And defenses will be perplexed by their collection of offensive weapons. It'll be a more fluid offense led by a confident Andrew Harrison, who runs this squad now as both a point guard and a leader.

Teams that Might Struggle

Creighton -- It's not necessarily fair to list Creighton here. Every team has to rebuild at some point.

But the Bluejays will enter their next phase after losing Wooden Award winner Doug McDermott, Grant Gibbs, Ethan Wragge and Jahenns Manigat. McDermott's magical three-year run positioned the Bluejays in the top-eight slots of Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings.

The team's departures accounted for 51.3 points per game last year. Austin Chatman, 8.1 PPG, is the top returning scorer and a significant player in this transition. Devin Brooks and freshman Ronnie Harrell Jr. will be asked to help too. And Cal transfer Ricky Kreklow is a solid addition.

But it's not reasonable to expect anything resembling what we've witnessed from the Omaha-based program the last three years. This young team will grow. It will struggle early, however, as it adjusts to new roles and life without Dougie McBuckets.

UCLA -- Steve Alford had a multitude of offensive options last season. Jordan Adams (17.4 PPG) could slash and score or hit jump shots. Kyle Anderson, a 6-foot-9 point forward, was the matchup nightmare. And Zach LaVine, Travis Wear and David Wear provided the balance that helped the Bruins reach the Sweet 16 last year.

But they're all gone. Bryce Alford, Tony Parker, Norman Powell, former UTEP signee Isaac Hamilton and a top-10 recruiting class led by Kevon Looney don't have the same punch (on paper, at least) as last year's crew.

Adams announced that he'd decided to return to UCLA before reversing that decision and entering the NBA draft, where he was selected in the first round by the Memphis Grizzlies.

Adams' return would have answered a lot of questions about this UCLA offense. His departure creates questions. Alford might have a group that builds chemistry quickly and becomes a top offense in the Pac-12. That's no guarantee, though. They were 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency last season.

They'll need freshmen to shine early and returnees to make major strides to regain that slot in 2014-15.

As a freshman at UCLA in 2013-14, guard Zach LaVine averaged 9.4 points on 7.8 shots, 2.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists in 24.4 minutes per game. In late March, after Florida ended UCLA's season in the Sweet 16, LaVine's father, Paul LaVine, told the Los Angeles Daily News that his son -- a too-thin backup guard who scored 11 points in his final five games -- would be one-and-done.

People mostly laughed.

[+] EnlargeJabari Parker
Grant Halverson/Getty ImagesDuke forward Jabari Parker, who averaged 19.1 points and 8.7 rebounds during his freshman season, is entering the NBA draft.
Some of it was the fatherly bravado in Paul LaVine's quotes. He said the decision was like a "divorce," and that NBA scouts "loved" his son. LaVine's godfather, Marvin Carter, told the Daily News that he admired the job UCLA coach Steve Alford had done with the team in general, but nonetheless wished Zach "had more of a chance to compete." And there was nothing more for LaVine to do at UCLA.

“Every year he spends at UCLA after this one is a waste,” Carter said. “It really is.”

LaVine, for all of his obvious potential, was not exactly Kansas' Andrew Wiggins, so all of this stuff was pretty funny. Others saw something more sinister: The NBA and its agents tempting a player who wasn't ready with the promise of freedom and riches. The 19-year-old age limit rearing its ugly head once more to the detriment of all involved.

The problem with all of the jokes is that LaVine's family was right: LaVine has as good a chance to develop in the NBA as he did as a college basketball player.

To insist he didn't was to insist that college basketball owns a monopoly on player development. The scoffs stemmed from the idea that a player must be ready to play in the NBA from the moment he steps into the league to have any hope of long-term success, that development stops at the draft decision. Much as the collective college hoops consciousness may like to think this is the case, it's not.

Just ask Duke's Jabari Parker:
Ultimately, I boiled my decision down to two simple questions:

Which environment -- college or the NBA -- offers me the best opportunity to grow as a basketball player?

Which environment -- college or the NBA -- offers me the best opportunity to grow and develop off the court?

The answer to both questions is undeniably the NBA.

That was Parker, writing with Jeff Benedict for Sports Illustrated Thursday, announcing his decision to turn pro. The announcement is about as unsurprising as draft decisions get: Parker is practically guaranteed to be a top-three pick in the 2014 NBA draft, and top-three picks almost never turn down the draft.

Still, if there was any player for whom such a decision may have made sense, it was Parker. He's a thoughtful dude with a genuine desire to earn a degree. He played for Mike Krzyzewski, arguably the greatest college basketball coach ever and a two-time Olympic gold-medal winner. Duke has world-class facilities and fan support. There are few better places in the world for a teenage college basketball player to develop on or off the court.

Plus, as Parker wrote, a loaded 2014 Duke class is led by his "good friend," center Jahlil Okafor, the No. 1 player in the country. If Parker had returned, Duke would have been favored to win the national title from now until next March. (That starting lineup -- some combination of Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones, Rasheed Sulaimon, Parker and Okafor -- is terrifying even as a hypothetical.)

And none of it was enough to keep Parker in college.

There are good financial arguments for the NBA, of course, and Parker is good enough that he doesn't have to take the short-term risk that, say, LaVine might. Parker is an obvious NBA talent with a decade of potential to mine until his peak. LaVine is all risk-reward. But the larger point remains: Parker had about as good a collegiate situation as any player could ever ask for, and was nonetheless convinced that the NBA was the better place for him to "grow and develop" in every facet of his life.

Whatever new NBA commissioner Adam Silver eventually proposes to replace the current age limit -- and all signs are that Silver would very much like to make a change -- this is a key consideration for folks on the college side to understand. The argument has always been framed much differently. College basketball was the place to develop. The NBA was the place to get paid. How long until those distinctions blur entirely?

Top stats to know: Thursday's Sweet 16

March, 27, 2014
The Sweet 16 tips off today with four games. Here are some of the statistical storylines we’ll be following tonight.

(6) Baylor vs. (2) Wisconsin
Both teams can score a lot of points, so this game could come down to which team defends better.

Against elite offenses, Baylor appears to have the more efficient defense: Baylor has allowed 105.1 points per 100 possessions in four games against teams ranked in the top 25 in defensive efficiency; Wisconsin has allowed 109.7 points per 100 possessions in eight games against those same teams.

Matchup to watch: Baylor plays zone on 57 percent of its defensive plays. Wisconsin has the most efficient zone offense in the country, averaging 1.20 points per play.

(11) Dayton vs. (10) Stanford
Dayton-Stanford is the second 10 vs 11-seed matchup ever. The other was in 2011 when 11-seed VCU beat 10-seed Florida State, 72-71.

Both of these teams dominated defensively against their first two opponents, allowing fewer than 60 points in each game.

The Flyers defensive strength has been on the perimeter, holding their opponents to a tournament-best 15 percent shooting outside the paint. Stanford, on the other hand, has shut down its opponents inside. Kansas shot just 38 percent around the basket in the Cardinal's upset win.

With its dominant defense down low, the key to beating Stanford is by making outside shots. Stanford is 5-9 this season when its opponents shoot at least 36 percent on 3-pointers. The Cardinal are 17-3 when their opponents shoot less than 36 percent on 3-pointers.

Dayton is shooting 40.3 percent on 3-pointers in its last seven games.

(4) UCLA vs. (1) Florida
This should be a familiar matchup for fans of both teams. Florida is 3-0 all-time in tournament games against UCLA, with all three meetings occurring in the last eight seasons.

The matchup to watch in this game is UCLA’s transition offense vs Florida’s transition defense.

The Bruins score a Pac-12 best 19.7 points per game and shoot 57 percent in transition. Florida’s defense allows only 9.0 transition points per game, fewest in the SEC, and holds opponents to 43 percent shooting on the break.

(4) San Diego State vs. (1) Arizona
Three times a charm, right? This is the third time that Arizona is a 1-seed in a regional in Anaheim. The Wildcats won their Sweet 16 game here in 1998 and 2003, but lost in the Elite 8 both years.

The first to 50 points might win this game. San Diego State and Arizona rank first and third, respectively, in fewest points per 100 possessions allowed in the nation.

San Diego State excels with its press defense. The Aztecs have the fourth-most efficient press defense of any team that presses on at least 10 plays per game. Arizona ranks 29th in the country in points per play against press defense.

Arizona has been at its been defending the interior, holding its first two opponents to a tournament-best 32 percent shooting around the basket. San Diego State has attempted a total of just eight shots around the basket in its first two games, the second-fewest of any team.

MEMPHIS, Tenn. -- On Oct. 17, Billy Donovan arrived at his 18th SEC media day -- an event expressly designed for coaches and players to talk about their teams -- not knowing what to say.

After three straight Elite Eight appearances, and with a veteran team and a typically high-octane recruiting class at his disposal, Donovan found himself in front of the media day scrum unable to tell reporters exactly what he thought about his team, because he genuinely didn't know. He was almost apologetic.

"I'd tell you today, if we had [all our players available] and we could start Oct. 11 fully healthy, then I'd tell you we have a chance to be really good," Donovan said then. "Hopefully we can get there as the season goes on. But we're not there right now."

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Kim Klement/USA TODAY SportsBilly Donovan has guided his Gators into another Sweet 16 appearance.
Point guard Scottie Wilbekin spent all offseason working his way back from an indefinite suspension, and would miss six games as final penance at the start of the season. Dorian Finney-Smith had a three-game suspension to serve. Michael Frazier II had mononucleosis. Damontre Harris was a maybe in October; he would eventually be dismissed. Freshman Chris Walker was struggling to get academically eligible.

Donovan was running practices with six or seven scholarship players. When freshman Kasey Hill suffered an early-season injury, Wilbekin still wasn't back; on Nov. 21, the Gators played Middle Tennessee without a point guard.

"Our team was in complete shambles and disarray when we came back to school in August," Donovan said.

It was the kind of mess that might panic a younger, less experienced, less secure coach -- one still concerned with proving himself as equal to his peers. What if we lose too many nonconference games? Do I need to end suspensions early? What will this season say about me?

After 34 wins (including a school-record 28 straight), an unbeaten SEC run, a No. 1 overall seed, a fourth consecutive Sweet 16 appearance and a contract extension raising his pay to $3.7 million over its final six years, it was clearer than ever that Donovan is no longer that guy. Five months later, on a much larger dais, the 48-year-old coach again sat in front of reporters, able to reflect on process without fretting much about outcome.

"When you're a young coach, you're always in a position where you're trying to prove yourself," Donovan said. "I don't think it's any different for anybody in any job. You get a job when you're young and you get a promotion and you're going to want to prove that you can do the job and do it well.

"But I think, as I've gotten older -- we all want to win. But for me, there's a lot I've learned as it relates to life and as it relates to the drama of the NCAA tournament. What are these guys going to take from this experience, and how equipped are these guys to take the next step in their life?"

The process vs. outcome dichotomy is not a new one. But it may be the defining argument in modern sports. In a micro sense, it's about the merit of running good stuff and getting a statistically efficient shot and living with the result versus, say, lionizing a difficult play for the sheer fact that it ended well. In the macro, it's about knowing your team improved each and every game, that your players came together, that you got the most out of each game over a 35-game sample.

But it's easier said than done -- especially when you're a young coach clawing your way up the ladder. Outcome is what gets you the promotion, and the respect, and the money, in whatever order Tony Montana prescribed.

On May 30, nearly two months after the NCAA tournament concludes, Billy Donovan will be 49 years old. The short-cropped sides of his widow's peak are run through with gray. He's seven years removed from the second of his two national titles (2006, 2007) and 14 years past his first national title run (2000). He's weathered the comedown years, and the brief NIT blips, and now practically has the Gators in a self-sustaining state. They play UCLA on Thursday at 9:45 ET.

They are always good, because of course they are.

Still, a younger, more assailable coach -- a younger, less gray Donovan, even -- might view a 34-2 season and a No. 1 overall seed as a must-win, can't-fail, life-changing opportunity. Instead, the Florida coach can look back on where his team was in October, and appreciate how far it has come. He is, after nearly two decades in Gainesville, Fla., among the select handful of his colleagues with the luxury of a wider perspective. No matter what happens next.

"To me, to see what those kids have done in terms of trying to come together as a team -- that stuff to me is really what it's about, more so than just the end result of winning," Donovan said.

"We all want to win, and I hope we go all the way through, I'd love that. But I have a lot more appreciation for that stuff now than I did when I was younger."

Video: Vitale on intriguing matchups

March, 23, 2014

Dick Vitale looks at Sunday's most intriguing matchups and discusses which teams are ready to move on and which teams are likely to be upset in the NCAA tournament.

Top stats to know for Sunday's games

March, 22, 2014
Sunday's NCAA Tournament slate features eight compelling Round of 32 games, and we've got you covered with a look at the key matchups in each contest.

Stanford is the third-most efficient team in the country on pick-and-roll, ball handler plays, averaging more than a point per play on those plays.

Kansas ranks 221st in points per play allowed while defending pick-and-roll, ball handler plays.

That could be a big factor with Joel Embiid not there to protect the rim on pick-and-roll plays.

Kentucky ranks second in offensive rebound percentage (42.1%) and scores 9.4 points per game on offensive rebound putbacks, fifth-most in the country.

Wichita State ranks fifth in the country in defensive rebound percentage (74.2%) and only allows 4.3 points per game on offensive rebound putbacks, 17th-fewest in the country.

Iowa State relies heavily on 3-point shooting. The Cyclones rank in the top 25 in 3-point attempts and 3-pointers made per game.

North Carolina is holding teams to 30 percent 3-point shooting in its last 14 games. The Tar Heels have held 13 of their last 14 opponents below 40 percent on 3-point shooting. They're only allowing 5.4 3-pointers per game in their last 14 games.

Mercer's opponents are attempting 23.1 3-pointers per game in its last 10 games. Mercer is 9-0 when its opponents attempt at least 24 3-pointers (12-1 when they attempt at least 23), including a win over Duke (37 attempts).

Tennessee hasn't had more than 24 3-point attempts all season. They average 17.1 3-point attempts per game.

UCLA ranks in the bottom 20 of the country in turnover percentage. The Bruins only turn it over on 14.9 percent of their possessions.

Stephen F. Austin forces 16.2 turnovers per game, eighth-most in the country. However, SFA is only forcing 11.6 turnovers per game in its last five games.

Creighton is 23-1 this season when shooting at least 35 percent on 3-pointers (4-6 when shooting less than 35 percent). Creighton is 15-1 when making at least 11 3-pointers (12-6 when making 10 or fewer).

Baylor's opponents are shooting 38.5 percent on 3-pointers in its last 10 games. Baylor has allowed higher than 40 percent 3-point shooting in five of its last 10 games and at least eight 3-pointers in six of its last 10 games.

Memphis ranks second in the country in transition offense with 21.2 points per game. The Tigers rank 21st in transition field goal percentage (59.3%).

Virginia excels in transition defense. The Cavaliers allow seven transition points per game, second-fewest in the country. Virginia also ranks in the top 25 in field goal percentage defense in transition.

Pace will be a factor, as well. Virginia has the third-slowest pace (60.7 possessions per game), while Memphis ranks 34th in pace (71.2 possessions per game).

Gonzaga is very efficient on offense, ranking in the top 10 in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.

Arizona ranks third in defensive efficiency, allowing 89.5 points per 100 possessions. The Wildcats are 15-0 this season when allowing fewer than 90 points per 100 possessions.

Gonzaga hasn't faced a single team all season that ranks in the top 30 in offensive efficiency.

BPI Talk: Projecting championship week

March, 11, 2014
Championship Week can be unpredictable as teams try to improve their NCAA tournament résumés, whether it’s to vie for a No. 1 seed or just to get into the field.

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) measures how well each team performs based on game result, margin, pace of game, location, opponent strength and the absence of any key players.

Using BPI, we are able to project the chances for each team to win its major conference tournament. The probabilities take into account the matchups in each bracket based on each team’s BPI. The team with the best BPI isn’t necessarily always the favorite if that team has much tougher matchups than other teams in the tournament.

According to BPI, the Arizona Wildcats have the best chance of any team in one of the seven major conferences (American, ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC) to win its tournament. They have a 63 percent chance of winning the Pac-12 tournament.

Arizona has more than a six times better chance of winning the Pac-12 tournament than any other team. The UCLA Bruins have the second-best chance at 10 percent.

Pac-12 best chances: Arizona 63 percent, UCLA 10 percent, Oregon 10 percent, Arizona State 5 percent, Stanford 4 percent

The Florida Gators are the prohibitive favorites in the SEC tournament with a 57 percent chance to win it. The Kentucky Wildcats (25 percent) are the only other SEC team with better than a 7 percent chance. The No. 9 seed Missouri Tigers have a slightly better chance to win the SEC tournament than the No. 3 seed Georgia Bulldogs.

SEC best chances: Florida 57 percent, Kentucky 25 percent, Tennessee 7 percent, Arkansas 3 percent, Missouri 2 percent

American & Big East
The Louisville Cardinals (American) and Villanova Wildcats (Big East) are both close to 50 percent in terms of their chances of winning their respective conference tournaments.

The Memphis Tigers have an edge playing on their home court in the American Tournament, but they still have a significantly worse chance than Louisville and Cincinnati. Memphis does, however, have a greater probability of winning the tournament than higher-seeded teams Southern Methodist and Connecticut. With its home-court advantage, Memphis would be a favorite against any team in the tournament other than Louisville.

American best chances: Louisville 49 percent, Cincinnati 18 percent, Memphis 14 percent, SMU 12 percent, Connecticut 8 percent

No team other than Villanova or Creighton has better than a 6 percent chance to win the Big East tournament. There’s a 44 percent chance that Villanova and Creighton meet in the Big East championship game.

Big East best chances: Villanova 48 percent, Creighton 31 percent, Xavier 6 percent, St. John’s 6 percent, Providence 4 percent

Perhaps the most interesting conference tournament is the ACC, where the No. 3 seed Duke Blue Devils are the favorites at 27 percent. The No. 1 seed Virginia Cavaliers (25 percent) and No. 2 Syracuse Orange (23 percent) are close behind.

ACC best chances: Duke 27 percent, Virginia 25 percent, Syracuse 23 percent, Pittsburgh 12 percent, North Carolina 7 percent

Big Ten
Another interesting conference tournament is the Big Ten, where four teams have between a 17 percent and a 26 percent chance of winning the tournament. The No. 2 seed Wisconsin Badgers are the favorites at 26 percent, while the No. 1 seed Michigan Wolverines are only the third favorites.

Big Ten best chances: Wisconsin 26 percent, Ohio State 19 percent, Michigan 19 percent, Michigan State 17 percent, Iowa 11 percent

Big 12
The Kansas Jayhawks have a 37 percent chance to win the Big 12 tournament, but their path isn’t easy. They could face the teams with the fourth- and second-best chances of winning the tournament in the quarterfinals and semifinals.

The No. 8 seed Oklahoma State Cowboys, with a 10 percent chance of winning it, could face Kansas in the quarterfinals. The No. 4 seed Iowa State Cyclones, with an 18 percent chance, could face Kansas in the semifinals. Both teams have a 35 percent chance of beating Kansas, according to BPI.

Big 12 best chances: Kansas 37 percent, Iowa State 18 percent, Oklahoma 16 percent, Oklahoma State 10 percent, Baylor 6 percent

Top-10 losses mean little in BPI rankings

March, 10, 2014
Four teams in the top 10 of ESPN’s Basketball Power Index lost last weekend, but the impact on the BPI rankings heading into this week’s major conference tournaments was minimal. The differences between the 0-to-100 BPI ratings of top teams meant that the drop in a team’s BPI after a loss often wasn’t enough to alter the rankings.

BPI No. 1 Arizona fell 64-57 at Oregon on Saturday and lost 0.7 in its BPI rating. But the Wildcats had enough of a cushion over No. 2 Florida that they maintained the hold on the top spot. Similarly, No. 9 Wisconsin, which lost at Nebraska on Sunday, maintained its ranking despite a 1.0 drop in BPI.

Kansas falls after Shockers’ victory
A 92-86 loss at West Virginia brought Kansas’ BPI rating down 0.7, and the Jayhawks kept their No. 3 BPI ranking after Saturday’s games.

After Wichita State won the Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship game Sunday, the Shockers got a bump of 0.2 in their BPI – a small bump, but large enough for Wichita State to move from No. 4 to No. 3 in the rankings, leapfrogging Kansas. The Jayhawks, who have the toughest schedule among BPI Top 15 teams, are No. 3 in the NCAA’s RPI rankings but fell from eighth to 10th in the weekly Associated Press poll.

Of the BPI Top 10 teams that lost, only Virginia (a 75-69 overtime loser at Maryland on Sunday) dropped in the rankings immediately after the defeat, from No. 7 to No. 8.

Pac-12 climber and faller
Oregon, in its BPI rating, gained less than Arizona lost after their game Saturday but climbed four spots in the rankings Sunday to No. 16. The Ducks have won seven games in a row (earning a BPI Game Score of at least 90 in five of them) and exceeded a 90 Game Score in its loss at Arizona on Feb. 6. The NCAA’s RPI has Oregon at No. 25, and the Ducks have the third-most votes among teams finishing out of the top 25 in the AP poll.

The biggest faller in BPI rankings among the Top 50 was UCLA. The Bruins lost 73-55 at No. 175 Washington State on Saturday and fell from 11th to 21st. UCLA earned a Game Score of 10.6 against Washington State, 10 points lower than any other game score for a team currently ranked in the BPI Top 25.

In the eye of the beholder
BPI and other team ranking systems weigh different factors, which explains why teams such as Michigan and Louisville can be regarded so differently.

Michigan is eighth in the AP poll, ninth in RPI and a No. 2 seed in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology. In BPI, however, Michigan is 22nd. Of the Wolverines’ seven losses, four have been by at least 10 points; of their wins, seven have been by five points or fewer. Also, Michigan is 8-1 with an 88.7 BPI against opponents missing at least one of their top five players (in terms of minutes per game), and BPI de-weights those games.

Louisville rose from 11th to fifth in the AP poll, but the Cardinals are a projected No. 4 seed in Bracketology and are 22nd in RPI. BPI ranks the Cardinals fifth. All five of Louisville’s losses have been to BPI Top 50 teams and have been by an average of six points, whereas its five wins against Top-50 opponents have come by an average of 13.4 points.
On Jan. 21, 2004, Notre Dame celebrated the 30th anniversary of its 1974 upset against UCLA with a halftime celebration. I know because I was there. Or was I?

Here’s the story I remember: My high school friend John, a Notre Dame freshman, had extra tickets for that game versus Kentucky, so my roommate Jason and I made the trek to South Bend, Ind., to watch the Irish take on Gerald Fitch, Chuck Hayes and Kelenna Azubuike. I distinctly remember the halftime celebration, the dimming of the lights, the rapture in the audience as the final two minutes of that fabled upset played on the Joyce Center scoreboard, the thunderous applause for the players arranged side by side at midcourt. And I swear that a Wildcats fan near us made fun of all the hubbub -- something about the Irish getting more mileage out of one game than any program before or since. I remember laughing.

Here’s the problem: John doesn’t. Remember, that is. The best he could do to verify, he said in an email, was “50-50.” And Jason? Jason wasn’t even on the trip. That was a different trip, he explained. Facebook was no help either; I didn’t create my profile until the fall of 2004. This game I’m so sure I attended was one of the last moments of my life that wasn’t recorded for posterity on the Internet. But I remember it! It happened! Right?

That was just 10 years ago, three full decades after the legend of the Digger Phelps-engineered upset of No. 1 UCLA was born. Imagine what tricks memory can pull in 40 years, what details can be lost in translation, how much harder it gets with each passing annum to identify with the way things once were.

And yet “Notre Dame 71, UCLA 70” has stood firm against the sands of time. It is crystallized in the sport’s collective memory, and not just because one team scored 12 unanswered points in the final two minutes or because the Irish had eerily bookended the 88-game winning streak that preceded it. Notre Dame 71, UCLA 70 will live forever precisely because it, more than any other game, connects us to an era in college basketball so utterly alien from our own.

No fact demonstrates this better than one that is often lost in casual remembrances: Notre Dame was ranked No. 2 in the country. In the matter of a decade, the thought of a No. 2-ranked team beating No. 1 on its home floor would sound like nothing more than an exciting, high-quality game of hoops, a sportwide shift that more or less exists intact to this day. In 1974, against John Wooden’s UCLA, it was something like history.

[+] EnlargeBill Walton, John Schumate
Malcolm Emmons/USA TODAY SportsBill Walton and John Shumate staged an epic battle in the Irish's upset of the Bruins in January 1974.
Such was UCLA’s dominance. Between 1964 and 1975, the Bruins won 10 national championships. They won seven straight from 1967 to 1973; no other college coach in history has more than four. UCLA won 38 straight NCAA tournament games in that span, and Wooden posted four 30-0 seasons. Today, Bob Knight’s undefeated 1975-76 Indiana team is still the last to finish without a loss.

These facts are well-known and oft-repeated, but they never lose their power. And the 1974 Bruins were the most powerful of them all. From Jan. 23, 1971, when ND’s Austin Carr scored 46 points in an 89-81 win, until almost three years later to the day, UCLA won 88 straight college basketball contests. The Bruins' average margin was 23.5 points. Bill Walton, the indomitable force as those teams’ literal and figurative center, had not lost a game since his prep career at Helix High in San Diego. “By various accounts,” The New York Times recalled in 2010, “his personal winning streak had reached 139 or 143 games, the victories rolling up like miles on an odometer.” Wooden, with the help of local businessman and devoted booster "Papa" Sam Gilbert, concentrated more talent in Westwood than any program before or since. When Wooden combined that talent with the freedom and trust of his philosophy, an aura of enlightened invincibility was born.

Such was that aura that Notre Dame -- again, the No. 2 team in the country, playing on its own floor -- required intense psychological motivation to believe it could down the Bruins trailing by nine points with less than three minutes left. Before the game, Phelps forced his self-conscious kids to rehearse cutting down the nets. The final timeout speech Phelps delivered to his charges -- which the documentary “88 and 1” will detail Sunday night on ESPN2 -- practically force-fed the Irish’s belief.

Phelps also had two unlikely advantages.

Walton arrived in South Bend, Ind., injured. Twelve days earlier, the center broke two bones in his back when, as he later told the San Diego Union-Tribune, he was undercut on a rebound. He played brilliantly against Notre Dame, making 12 of his first 13 shots while wearing a restrictive back brace. But the film betrays Walton’s pain. When Irish center John Shumate stole UCLA’s high inbounds pass -- just seconds after scoring on Walton in the post -- Walton winced at the jump, hesitating for a brief second, glancing at the ground, while Shumate cut the lead to seven.

The other advantage? Wooden’s philosophy was so celebrated that it was already widely available in book form, where Phelps read that Wooden typically refused to call timeouts late in games. The serene Bruins legend preferred to let his players self-actualize their way through hiccups. He was adamant in his philosophy that coaching was for practice, that if players weren’t prepared for anything by game time, he had failed. So when Phelps’ team suddenly pressed and the turnovers piled up, UCLA never took a timeout to adjust. A miraculous 12-point comeback ensued.

To this day, UCLA players dispute that version of the facts. They insist that they, not their coach, lost the game. (Guard Pete Trgovich told the Times in 2010 that “Anybody who knows basketball can’t put [Phelps and Wooden] in the same breath. It had nothing to do with Coach’s decision not to call a timeout.”) Forty years later, there is still bad blood, still some jockeying for control of the narrative, still some attempt to write the history of one of the most incredible upsets in college basketball history.

Still, 40 years later, the result itself remains unchanged, fully formed, an artifact of a bygone era. It is no longer possible for one program to be so dominant that a loss to No. 2 at home would immediately go down in history.

But it was possible then, and it is that context that makes Notre Dame 71, UCLA 70 so special. It is a basketball memory too strong to fade.

Take Three: Coach with the most on the line

September, 18, 2013
Editor's Note: We want to be clear: This is not a piece about the hot seat. Rather, it's one that identifies three secure coaches who nevertheless have a lot on the line in 2013-14, whether it’s taking that first big step, fulfilling sky-high expectations or trying to prove doubters wrong.

Jason King: Steve Alford, UCLA

In some ways, it doesn’t make much sense to say that Steve Alford has something to prove. In his six years at New Mexico, Alford averaged 25.8 victories and won five Mountain West Conference titles. There’s no question the man can coach. Alford, though, will be operating under a whole new set of circumstances at UCLA, where expectations will be unreasonably high. This, after all, is a school that in March fired a coach who had been to three Final Fours and was weeks removed from winning the outright Pac-12 title. That might cut it at some programs, but it didn’t do Ben Howland any good in Westwood, where sub-30-win seasons are considered a failure.

Alford won’t have the grace period that most coaches are extended during their first season. He inherited a team that returns a likely first-round NBA draft pick in Kyle Anderson and a trio of proven forwards in David and Travis Wear and Jordan Adams. Arizona may be the clear-cut favorite in the Pac-12, but UCLA will be expected to at least make the race interesting. If the Bruins don’t, Alford will endure a boatload of criticism, especially considering the lukewarm reception to his hiring by fans and media. Alford’s lack of NCAA tournament success -- and his mediocre performance on the recruiting trail thus far -- has prompted some concerns about his ability to return UCLA to its days of dominance. And his often prickly personality may make it tough to win over fans. As a player at Indiana, Alford grew used to being in the spotlight. But never during his coaching career has he encountered what lies ahead during his first season at UCLA.

Myron Medcalf: John Calipari, Kentucky

It’s odd for a man with a national championship and Final Four appearances in two of the past three seasons to have something to prove. But that’s the position John Calipari is in after assembling the greatest recruiting class in college basketball history. Sure, there’s no guarantee this class will live up to the hype. But no group -- ever -- has warranted this much hoopla and excitement. He has six McDonald’s All Americans, and that’s just the freshmen. In all, Calipari boasts eight players who might be first-round picks in next summer’s NBA draft.

So what could go wrong? Well, last season, another talented young crew in Lexington lost to Robert Morris in the first round of the NIT. Was that a fluke? There’s immense pressure on Calipari and this Kentucky squad to prove that it was. He’s always been a premier recruiter, but recruiting alone, as we learned last year, is not the only quality that breeds success within the coaching ranks. Developing talent is critical. Calipari did that when he won a national title in 2012 with a squad that was led by freshmen Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The same result will be anticipated by Big Blue Nation in 2013-14. Yet the stench of last season’s tumult remains. The only relief will be a rally that ends in Texas with a Final Four appearance. Many will expect -- demand -- a national title. That’s what happens when a coach brings so many stars together. But can Calipari lead an inexperienced yet advanced group of young players to the championship again? Anything short of that could be considered a disappointment.

Dana O'Neil: Josh Pastner, Memphis

The news that Michael Dixon would be eligible immediately at Memphis turned the Tigers’ already terrific backcourt into arguably one of the best in the nation. It also upped the ante for the team overall, which means even higher expectations for Josh Pastner. The fifth-year coach has some questions on the inside, namely can Shaq Goodwin continue to make strides to help replace Adonis Thomas. But he’s got awfully good answers on the perimeter. Dixon, Joe Jackson, Geron Johnson and Chris Crawford are all different but all very good and, more important, all seniors. If Pastner can steal a page from Jay Wright’s four-guard handbook, he’s got the makings of a pretty good team.

Pastner has done a more-than-admirable job since taking over for Calipari. In three of his four years, the Tigers have made the NCAA tournament and last season won their first NCAA game in his tenure, beating Saint Mary’s before losing to Michigan State to finish 31-5. The trouble is, before Pastner arrived, winning an NCAA tournament game was a foregone conclusion. Calipari’s last four teams went Elite Eight, Elite Eight, national title game, Sweet 16. It’s an absurdly high bar. It’s frankly unfair to measure a team by its NCAA success only. Matchups and injuries can alter so many fates, but it is definitely Pastner’s reality. The folks of Memphis love their coach and love their Tigers, but they want to see the tourney's second weekend again.
Thanks to Ben Howland's "Hey, Please Don't Fire Me!" 2012 recruiting class, his replacement, Steve Alford, has a handful of interesting players at his disposal in his first season in Westwood. Shooting guard Jordan Adams displayed prodigious, efficient scoring ability last season; he might average 25 points a game this year. Tony Parker is a big, physical, promising forward. Even David and Travis Wear have developed into solid face-up bigs.

But none of those pieces is as intriguing, or as pivotal, as Kyle Anderson.

[+] EnlargeKyle Anderson
Wally Caddow/Icon SMIAs a freshman Kyle Anderson averaged 8.6 rebounds for UCLA.
Anderson is different. He's -- and I mean this in the strictest basketball sense -- weird. During his senior year, he was the No. 5-ranked player in the 2012 class. Had Shabazz Muhammad not decided to take his talents and fuzzy biography to Los Angeles, Anderson would have been the gem of Howland's last-ditch talent infusion, the star of his desperate show.

He would up a secondary figure instead. Anderson is a lanky 6-foot-9 guard who doesn't check his man particularly well but gobbles up defensive rebounds; who can hook-shot mismatches to death but seems to hate playing with his back to the basket; who is probably best-used as a point-forward distributor type at the top of the key, even though he can't shoot 3s. See what I mean? It's all very weird.

In 2012-13, UCLA never really found a place for that strange blend of skills. Howland had Larry Drew II handle the ball. Muhammad and Adams did most of the work on the perimeter; the Wear twins played on the block. Often, Anderson just sort of floated. He was lost.

But even then you could see it: The things that made it so difficult for Anderson to star in his first collegiate season are also the things that put a glint in NBA scouts' eyes. His blend of size and ball skills is unusual, and his desire to stand back and distribute -- his clear belief that his best skill is his passing -- is immediately attractive. Who wouldn't take a chance on a 6-9 pass-first point guard? Who wouldn't want to develop a guy with that combination of skills?

Which is why Monday's news wasn't really all that surprising, at least not in and of itself. From ESPN's Jeff Goodman:
"Kyle has made great strides in his mental approach to the game and his work ethic since being at UCLA," his father, Kyle Anderson Sr., told "The major deficiencies in his overall game are his lack of strength, quickness and explosion, and inconsistent shooting. We feel that both of which can be addressed more efficiently with more time and repetition. It's more than likely that it will be time for Kyle to move on at the end of this college season."

As Jeff notes, the 2014 draft is brutal, particularly at the top, and particularly for small forwards and power forwards. Depth at those positions is going to be crazy; Anderson doesn't really look like a lottery pick. Given all that, you might be wondering why Anderson's family would be so willing to project the end of his college career. What if this season doesn't go as planned? What if he has to come back? This isn't exactly Marcus Smart we're dealing with, after all.

Then again, so what? Anderson can always change his mind; it's not like UCLA won't have him back if he does. And, as with Smart, I tend to see this sort of open-book move as a positive for everybody involved. Why cloak your ambitions anyway? Why pay exhaustive lip service to your school, fans, program, coach, etc. when everyone already knows the score? Remember when Howland was chided for saying (before Muhammad could) that his star was definitely leaving for the 2013 draft? Every year, it's like everyone in the sport agrees to pretend that everyone else wants to be exactly where they are, and this illusion must be maintained until the season is over, at which point you are free to admit that you one day want to achieve your dream of making millions of dollars for playing a game you love. Huh? Why? It's completely silly.

No, the pertinent question is not whether Anderson should set a deadline for his college career. Whatever. The real question is whether he can close the deal in time. Can he showcase some improved shooting? Can he be more than a matchup-based change of pace at point guard, and be a viable, collected team leader at the position instead? Can he leverage his size for more than surface impressions? Can he guard? Can he be a two-way threat? Can he combine his skills into an effective package -- can he be more than the sum of his own individual parts?

These are the questions that will define Anderson's second, and apparently last, season in Westwood. The clock is officially ticking.

3-point shot: Colorado assists neighbors

September, 16, 2013
1. Colorado coach Tad Boyle, his staff and players helped on campus Saturday to aid those in need after floods in the Boulder area that have affected thousands. The team fed displaced families and helped cover short-staffed crews in the cafeteria.

2. BYU coach Dave Rose is expected to be released from the hospital Monday after last week's surgery to remove cancerous spots. Rose will have to take it easy the next few weeks, but the Cougars' staff expects him to be ready for the start of BYU practice Oct. 7. Teams are allowed to start practicing on Sept. 27. But the new rule is for 30 practices within 42 days of a team's first game, so schools can manage the start time to their schedule. That means there will be staggered practice days from Sept. 27 with not every team practicing on the same days.

3. No one should be surprised by former UTEP signee Isaac Hamilton ending up at UCLA. Hamilton's family made it clear that he wanted to be at USC or UCLA once he told UTEP he wasn't going to attend so he could be closer to his ailing grandmother. According to Hamilton's father, Greg, Isaac can be on a scholarship but without being released from his national letter of intent, he cannot play this season. UCLA cannot comment on Hamilton's arrival until all his paperwork is in to the school. UCLA coach Steve Alford is on the lookout for talent that can produce from Southern California. The onus will be on Hamilton to be a force in the fall of 2014 by using this ineligible season to his advantage.

Nonconference schedule analysis: Pac-12

September, 11, 2013
This week, has been breaking down the nonconference schedules of each team in nine of the nation's top leagues. Next up: the Pac-12.


Toughest: at San Diego State (Nov. 14), NIT Season Tip-Off (Nov. 27-29 in New York), at Michigan (Dec. 14)
Next toughest: UNLV (Dec. 7)
The rest: Cal Poly (Nov. 8), Long Beach State (Nov. 11), New Mexico State (Dec. 11), Southern (Dec. 19), Northern Arizona (Dec. 23)

Toughness scale: 9 -- The Wildcats will go to one of the toughest spots in the Big Ten and in the Mountain West within a month of each other. The NIT Season Tip-Off is on the top line because it seems Arizona and Duke have a pretty clear path to the NIT final at MSG. If that occurs, then the Cats would have three premier games away from home. Playing UNLV and NMSU in Tucson will hardly be a cakewalk, either. This team can handle the chore, though, since it's got top-10 talent.


Toughest: at UNLV (Nov. 19), Marquette (Nov. 25), Wooden Legacy (Nov. 28-Dec. 1 in Fullerton and Anaheim, Calif.)
Next toughest: at DePaul (Dec. 5)
The rest: UMBC (Nov. 8), Miami-Ohio (Nov. 12), Idaho State (Nov. 15), Bradley (Nov. 22), Grambling (Dec. 14), Texas Tech (Dec. 21), UC Irvine (Dec. 28).

Toughness scale: 7 -- The Sun Devils play a number of teams that might not move the meter but are all high-level NCAA-bound squads. Marquette will be as tough a team to face as any on the slate and going to UNLV will be one of the hardest road stops. Opening with Creighton in the Wooden Legacy should be one of the top first-round games of any tournament (and with a win, San Diego State likely awaits). The road game at DePaul has to be taken seriously after the Blue Demons stunned the Sun Devils last season in Tempe. This is a quality schedule for a team that has NCAA expectations.


Toughest: Maui Invitational (Nov. 25-27), at Creighton (Dec. 22)
Next toughest: at UC Santa Barbara (Dec. 6)
The rest: Coppin State (Nov. 8), Denver (Nov. 12), Oakland (Nov. 15), Southern Utah (Nov. 18), UC Irvine (Dec. 2), Nevada (Dec. 10), Fresno State (Dec. 14), Furman (Dec. 28)

Toughness scale: 5 -- The game at Creighton is by far the toughest for the Bears. The question is who does Cal eventually get in Maui? If the Bears get past Arkansas, Syracuse is next and the schedule toughness goes up. If the draw is Minnesota, then it’s not as bad. Playing Baylor or Gonzaga on Day 3 would also help the schedule strength. This is a Bears' team that will get ripe with age in the season, so not overloading it early was the smart move.


Toughest: vs. Baylor (Nov. 8 in Dallas), Harvard (Nov. 24), Kansas (Dec. 7), vs. Oklahoma State (Dec. 21 in Las Vegas)
Next toughest: Wyoming (Nov. 13), at Air Force (Nov. 30), at Colorado State (Dec. 3), Georgia (Dec. 28)
The rest: UT Martin (Nov. 10), Jackson State (Nov. 16), Arkansas State (Nov. 18), UCSB (Nov. 21), Elon (Dec. 13)

Toughness scale: 9 -- The Buffaloes get major props for going out and scheduling one of the most difficult slates of any potential NCAA team. The toughest category above has four teams that should take turns in the top 25 and in the case of KU and OSU in the top five. Going to CSU is as tough a rivalry game as anyone will play. There are two more quality rivalry games at Air Force and against Wyoming and an improving Georgia coming west. Colorado might be more ready than any other Pac-12 team for conference play.


Toughest: vs. Georgetown (Nov. 8 in South Korea), at Ole Miss (Dec. 8), vs. Illinois (Dec. 14 in Portland)
Next toughest: BYU (Dec. 21)
The rest: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (Nov. 13), Utah Valley (Nov. 19), San Francisco (Nov. 24), Pacific (Nov. 29), North Dakota (Nov. 30), Cal Poly (Dec. 1), Morgan State (Dec. 29).

Toughness scale: 7 -- The Ducks will test themselves with the trip to Camp Humphreys in Seoul and Georgetown is a tough team to play no matter the location. But this will be a hard game to deal with, based on the location and logistics. The Rebels will likely be at full strength when the Ducks come calling in December. Illinois is rebuilding a bit but is always a tough out, even in a Duck-leaning site in Portland. BYU is a sleeper game on this schedule with the Cougars owning a legitimate shot to pull off the upset.


Toughest: at Maryland (Nov. 17), Diamond Head Classic (Dec. 22-25)
Next toughest: at DePaul (Dec. 1), Towson (Dec. 18)
The rest: Coppin State (Nov. 10), Portland (Nov. 13), SIU Edwardsville (Nov. 26), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (Dec. 7), Maryland Eastern Shore (Dec. 15), Quinnipiac (Dec. 29)

Toughness scale: 4 -- The Beavers are still dealing with the suspensions of Eric Moreland and Devon Collier. So a schedule that is too tough wouldn't have made sense for them. Going on the road to Maryland early in the season could be a wake-up call. A road game at DePaul is hardly going to be easy for the Beavers. The Diamond Head Classic could be intriguing if the Beavers beat Akron and get Iowa State on Day 2.


Toughest: at UConn (Dec. 18), vs. Michigan (Dec. 21 in Brooklyn, N.Y.)
Next toughest: BYU (Nov. 11), Legends Classic (Nov. 25-26 in New York)
The rest: Bucknell (Nov. 8), Northwestern (Nov. 14), at Denver (Nov. 17), Texas Southern (Nov. 21), South Dakota State (Dec. 1), UC Davis (Dec. 14), Cal Poly (Dec. 29)

Toughness scale: 6 -- The Cardinal get plenty of credit for going east -- twice. Stanford will be ready for the road in the Pac-12 after November and December. The UConn-Michigan swing in the tri-state area is as tough a nonconference road trip as any team has from the West Coast. Washington tried this two years ago with Marquette and Duke in New York City and went home winless. The Legends Classic could turn out to be Stanford's event if the Cardinal can get by Houston and then an anticipated matchup with Pitt. BYU in the opener will wake up this team, too.


Toughest: at Missouri (Dec. 7), vs. Duke (Dec. 19 in New York)
Next toughest: vs. Northwestern (Nov. 29 in Las Vegas), Alabama (Dec. 28)
The rest: Drexel (Nov. 8), Oakland (Nov. 12), Sacramento State (Nov. 18), Morehead State (Nov. 22), Chattanooga (Nov. 24), vs. Nevada (Nov. 28 in Las Vegas), UCSB (Dec. 3), Prairie View A&M (Dec. 14), Weber State (Dec. 22)

Toughness scale: 6 -- The Bruins didn't hide from playing Duke in New York City, a virtual home game for the Blue Devils. The return game at Mizzou will be as rocking a road game for UCLA as it will have during the season. The rest of the slate is more than manageable. There is always room to stumble and the Bruins have at home recently. So let's see if Steve Alford wins the games he's supposed to at Pauley.


Toughest: at Utah State (Nov. 8), Battle 4 Atlantis (Nov. 28-30 in the Bahamas)
Next toughest: Boston College (Dec. 8), at Long Beach State (Dec. 19), at Dayton (Dec. 22)
The rest: Cal State Northridge (Nov. 12), Northern Arizona (Nov. 15), Cal State Fullerton (Nov. 19), West Alabama (Nov. 21), CSU Bakersfield (Dec. 15), Howard (Dec. 29)

Toughness scale: 7 -- The Trojans are going to places few Pac-12 schools would choose to go. No teams from power conferences, outside of Mississippi State this season, go to Utah State. The trip to Logan to open the season will be a bear for new coach Andy Enfield. The Atlantis tournament might not be kind to the Trojans, either, with a possible second-round game against Kansas (after opening with Villanova). BC is much improved and will test USC at home. The road games to Long Beach State and Dayton are two other stops not normally found on a high-major nonconference road schedule.


Toughest: at Boise State (Dec. 3), BYU (Dec. 14)
Next toughest: Fresno State (Dec. 7)
The rest: Evergreen State (Nov. 8), UC Davis (Nov. 15), Grand Canyon (Nov. 21), Lamar (Nov. 22), Savannah State (Nov. 23), Ball State (Nov. 27), Idaho State (Dec. 10), Texas State (Dec. 19), St. Katherine (Dec. 28)

Toughness scale: 3 -- The Utes play one true road game in the nonconference. Boise State should be the second pick in the Mountain West, so that will be a tough one. The BYU rivalry game is at home this season, a plus for the Utes. But the rest of the schedule is weak. That's OK, considering Utah is trying to rebuild under Larry Krystkowiak. But they can't expect much of a postseason chance off this schedule.


Toughest: 2K Sports Classic (Nov. 21-22 in New York), at San Diego State (Dec. 8), UConn (Dec. 22)
Next toughest: N/A
The rest: Seattle (Nov. 10), UC Irvine (Nov. 14), Eastern Washington (Nov. 17), Montana (Nov. 26), Long Beach State (Nov. 30), Idaho State (Dec. 14), at Tulane (Dec. 17), Mississippi Valley (Dec. 27), Hartford (Dec. 29)

Toughness scale: 6 -- Washington has some renewed energy and is a team that should be on the radar as a possible NCAA tourney squad. That means the games against the Aztecs, home against UConn and then in New York against Indiana and either BC or UConn will carry significant weight as to how UW is judged as tourney worthy or not in March. I like this schedule as a legitimate prep for the Pac-12 to gauge where the Huskies will be later in the season.


Toughest: at Gonzaga (Nov. 21), Old Spice Classic (Nov. 28-Dec. 1 in Orlando)
Next toughest: TCU (Nov. 24), UTEP (Dec. 21)
The rest: CSU Bakersfield (Nov. 8), Lamar (Nov. 16), Pepperdine (Dec. 15), at Idaho (Dec. 7), vs. San Francisco State (Dec. 18 in Kennewick, Wash.), Mississippi Valley State (Dec. 28)

Toughness scale: 4 -- The Cougars play two of their rivalry games on the road at the Zags and in Moscow, Idaho. The Old Spice Classic could be a breakthrough for Wazzu with a rebuilding Butler team in the first round. Get that win and it's a likely shot at Oklahoma State in Round 2. The TCU home game could be a sneaky spot on the schedule, wedged in between Gonzaga and the Orlando trip.