ESPN Men's Basketball

This Saturday was always going to be a bit more underwhelming than recent weeks, but boy, did it end well. Once it ended, that is. Creighton students rushed the court before the game was officially over. Their reverse storm, in which they calmly walked off the court, was one of the most surprisingly orderly things I've ever seen. Bravo, Bluejays fans. Bravo.

Read up on Long Beach State-Creighton, Michigan-Ohio State and the rest of Saturday night's action here. If you missed our afternoon recap, catch up now.

No. 19 Michigan 56, No. 6 Ohio State 51: Here's something I learned Saturday -- Michigan hasn't won a Big Ten title since 1986. As Dan Shulman said on the broadcast, that's kind of hard to believe. Here's something else we learned Saturday: The Wolverines have a legitimate chance to break that streak this season.

The race for the Big Ten title is officially a three-way affair. How did Michigan get there? By taking care of business at home. Saturday's win was the Wolverines' 16th consecutive victory in Ann Arbor. For much of the past 10 years, under Tommy Amaker and then John Beilein, Crisler was usually a cold, detached, almost lifeless place. On Saturday, it was rocking in Minute 1 and Minute 40 and constantly in between.

Of course, a home atmosphere is nice, but it doesn't mean much if your team can't play. And Michigan most certainly can play. Point guard Trey Burke continued his impressive freshman campaign against the Buckeyes, scoring 17 points -- including a flurry of much-needed late buckets, one of which he took straight at former grade-school teammate Jared Sullinger -- and dishing five dimes against the best perimeter defender in the country, Ohio State guard Aaron Craft. Tim Hardaway Jr. added efficient perimeter scoring, while forward Jordan Morgan scored 11 points and 11 rebounds against Sullinger. Those matchups -- point guard and forward -- should be Michigan's weaknesses, particularly against OSU. In this one, Burke and Morgan turned them into strengths.

That said, Michigan won the game on the defensive end, where it held the Buckeyes to .91 points per trip, and in some part it has the Buckeyes to thank. Shooting guard William Buford struggled yet again, going 3-of-12 and continuing his senior slump. Credit the Wolverines for forcing the Bucks into perimeter jump shots, but also blame Ohio State, which often settled for those jumpers without first attempting to get Sully into an iso situation on the low block. When Sullinger did touch the ball, the Buckeyes usually got a score. They figured this out eventually, which is what got them back into the game in the second half. But it was too little, too late. You wouldn't think you'd need to "figure out" that you should probably give the ball to Sullinger because, you know, he's really good.

Look, Ohio State remains a very good defensive team. After all, holding Michigan to 56 points on its own floor is no easy task. But the Buckeyes' offense, particularly its perimeter shooting (or lack thereof), looks like a serious liability. It lurched helplessly against Michigan State's defense last Saturday, and it played right into Michigan's hands tonight. As a result, OSU allowed its sworn rival to tie it in the league standings, a game behind MSU in the loss column. If the Buckeyes can't fix these problems, their March ceiling -- once as limitless as any team's in the country -- will suffer accordingly.

No. 14 Murray State 65, No. 16 Saint Mary's 51: How much fun is Murray, Ky., having right now? With a rare national audience and Dickie V in the house, the Racers played as well as they have all season, as their fans -- an intense, buoyant bunch -- gleefully soaked it all in. Judging by Vitale's rave reviews of the small burgh, I'd say Murray might be one of the best places in the country to spend this exact Saturday night. I kind of wish I was there. (My colleague Jason King is and had this to say about the game.)

In any case, the nation got a chance to see what this Murray State team was all about, and the timing couldn't have been better. After its loss to Tennessee State two weeks ago, the tone of the discussion around the Racers changed from "Whoa, this team could go undefeated!" to "Well, that was fun, but check out that at-large profile -- Murray State could miss the tournament!" I think we can put that debate to rest. The Racers might not be a national title contender, but with Isaiah Canaan leading the way (he had 23 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds, 1 steal, a 5-for-8 mark beyond the arc and at least two or three downright crossovers that made this viewer yelp in enjoyment), they are certainly one of the better mid-major teams in the country and one that can give plenty of outfits issues in the NCAA tournament. Sure, some of the wins were shaky, and sure, the Ohio Valley Conference is bad, but when you win your first 23 games, guess what? You're pretty good.

Saint Mary's was far less convincing. The Gaels' offense was hobbled by Matthew Dellavedova's rolled ankle and Rob Jones' early foul trouble, but those weren't the primary causes -- and the road atmosphere and tough Murray defense don't explain it all, either. In reality, the Gaels, who have lost three of their past four (all by double digits), are just flat-out struggling. Over the course of the WCC season, the Gaels have posted about 1.17 points per possession (adjusted), best in the league. In their three recent losses, Dellavedova & Co. have failed to exceed a point per trip. Much like Creighton, this team's defense isn't nearly good enough to get the job done when the offense struggles. Much like Creighton, if the Gaels don't throw points in at something near their usual rate, they're going to lose. It's really just that simple.

Creighton 81, Long Beach State 79: Speaking of fun, how much fun was this? The finish -- Antoine Young's brilliant left-handed, last-second game winner -- was merely the icing on the cake. The 40 minutes that preceded that shot were chock full of high-octane mid-major awesomeness. LBSU's Casper Ware, T.J. Robinson and Larry Anderson trading deep 3s and inside moves with Young and Doug McDermott? Yes, please.

We couldn't have predicted the ending, but we should have seen the entertainment value coming. These teams both excel most at one thing: scoring the basketball. That's what Creighton does. When the Bluejays don't put the ball in at a high rate, they lose, as they did in their recent three-game losing streak, culminating with a home blowout at the hands of Wichita State last weekend. The defense simply isn't good enough to save Creighton from an off night.

Fortunately, Creighton has Doug McDermott. McDermott has been great all season, though he's struggled of late, and it's no coincidence his team had lost three of its past four in that span. But on Saturday night, he was amazing. Not "amazing" in a "wow, this sesame chicken is amazing" sort of way; McDermott was actually, literally amazing. He scored 36 points on 14-of-20 shooting and added 11 rebounds, six of which on the offensive end. The most impressive came late in the second half, when McDermott flew to the hoop and somehow tipped in a wayward shot arcing halfway over his head. Once it was clear McDermott was on, LBSU coach Dan Monson ordered his charges to begin aggressively double-teaming the opposing coach's son. But McDermott's eager passing and ability to make plays without the ball in his hands -- see the aforementioned tip-in -- neutralized that strategy. He was just so good. And at the perfect time, too.

As entertaining as this game was, as memorably as McDermott performed, the good news for Long Beach is that a loss at Creighton hardly hurts its at-large profile. Chances are, this team will continue its blistering Big West pace and get to the NCAA tournament in academic, auto-bid fashion. But if something goes awry in the conference tournament, LBSU's crazy nonconference schedule -- the toughest in the country by, like, a lot -- should be more than worthy of the committee's respect. Whatever happens, we'll always have Saturday night in Omaha. What a game, man. What a game.

Other observations from the night that was:

• All season, Arkansas has been bad on the road (where it is still winless) but great in its own building (where it was undefeated). That trend ended emphatically against the Gators. Florida hung a 98-68 offensive blitz on the young, up-tempo Razorbacks, led by Erving Walker's career-high 31 points on 9-of-11 from the field, 5-of-6 from 3, and 8-of-8 from the free throw line. Walker has been criticized this season, and rightfully so; his insistence on forcing bad shots in bad situations (at Kentucky, for example) is maddening. But you can't really play much better than he did Saturday night. Insane line.
• Harvard's vaunted defense handled rival Yale with relative ease, which immediately brings to mind images of old men in smoking jackets, teasing each other over cigars and snifters of cognac. (This is how I see Harvard-Yale. I know it's silly, but I can't help it.) This creates a rather compelling finish to the conference season: Harvard, the long-dormant program with sudden title expectations, will face traditional league powers Penn and Princeton at home this week. If the Crimson win, they'll sew up at least a share of the Ivy title, maybe more. There's something slightly poetic about that.
• Huge win for Xavier, which held on to its slim margin in the final seconds of overtime to beat Dayton, 86-83. The Musketeers have been flagging badly along the bubble cut line lately and they desperately needed a home win tonight to stay viable. Oh, and here's a fun fact (unless you're a Dayton fan): This loss made it 27 straight for the Flyers at rival Xavier. Dayton hasn't won there since -- get this -- 1981. Yikes.
• Speaking of fun facts, after an 18-point effort in a 64-53 win over Minnesota, Northwestern forward John Shurna became the Wildcats' all-time leading scorer, toppling Billy McKinney's 35-year hold on the honor. That's all well and good, but Shurna is no doubt more focused on the here and now, where the Wildcats couldn't afford to drop this game and still hope to land an at-large NCAA tournament bid, at least if the bracket was selected tomorrow. The victory keeps Northwestern very much alive. Minnesota's chances, unfortunately, will suffer in proportion.
• When it rains, it -- well, you know. The cliche certainly applies to Villanova, which is struggling through an uncharacteristically bad season but had, even without Maalik Wayns (knee) and James Bell (ankle), a 20-point lead in this game. Notre Dame came back and won in overtime and, well, yeah: That's a tough way to lose. Villanova could surely have used some brief flash of sunlight in an otherwise dark year. It was so, so close Saturday. And then it wasn't. Brutal. Notre Dame, meanwhile, won its eighth game in a row. The Irish don't always look pretty, but they get the job done.
• Southern Miss lost at Houston. Yep. That happened. It's bad news for Larry Eustachy's team, of course -- it puts a definite dent into the Golden Eagles' otherwise stellar tourney résumé, which features gaudy RPI and SOS numbers -- but also bad news for Conference USA, which would no doubt prefer to be a multi-bid league this season. Speaking of which, Memphis took its own awful loss today, too, 60-58 at home to UTEP. Yes, Memphis lost to UTEP at home. The Tigers had been quietly working their way through C-USA play with relative ease, but the offensive inconsistency that plagued them in their nonconference slate crept back in against the Miners, and that doesn't bode well for the coming tournament. Mild C-USA intrigue abounds!
• Speaking of bad losses by Mississippi teams, what is going on at Mississippi State? The Bulldogs were listless at Auburn -- Auburn! -- in a 65-55 loss, MSU's third in a row in a season that is stunningly spiraling in the direction of the bubble. The Bulldogs are just 6-6 in the SEC and have games against Kentucky and at Alabama this week. Uh-oh.
• And speaking of uh-oh and three-game losing streaks, Gonzaga lost in the closing seconds at San Francisco -- the third consecutive year it's lost to the Dons on the road. The Zags shot 51 percent and yet still lost, falling into a tie with BYU for second in the WCC, one game behind 12-2 Saint Mary's.
• Colorado State held on for a rather ugly win over Wyoming. This was a definite bubble elimination game, one Wyoming couldn't afford to drop if it wanted to preserve any chance of at-large consideration. The victory won't put CSU in the field by any means, but it keeps the Rams alive, if only barely.
• Watching Georgetown, it's hard not to be impressed with the Hoyas' pinpoint Princeton offense. But this team's real strength is its defense. We saw that again Saturday, as Georgetown held Providence to 25 percent shooting at the Dunk, a win that pushed Georgetown to 10-4 in the Big East and should quell any lingering concerns its fans may have had about another late-season collapse. That's not happening.

College hoops doesn't totally shut down over the holiday. In fact, eight lucky teams get to spend Christmas in Hawaii, where they'll compete for top honors at the annual Diamond Head Classic. OK, OK, so this isn't quite the Maui Invitational. The field is nowhere near as strong as what we saw at the Lahaina Civic Center in November, as is usually the case when you compare the two. But for holiday hoops -- including a couple of college games on Christmas Day to distract from you all that NBA and NFL goodness (and, for that matter, your family) -- it definitely gets the job done.

And hey, there are some intriguing storylines here. Kansas State proved itself as an emerging defensive force after a dominant victory over Alabama on Saturday; the Wildcats just might be this tournament's favorite. Xavier is the obvious candidate for those honors, but can the Musketeers overcome the personnel losses they suffered in the Cincinnati brawl to avoid a first-round loss to a very tough Long Beach State team? For that matter, can the Beach -- which beat Pittsburgh at Pitt and has tested Kansas, North Carolina and Louisville on the road -- turn its impressive play into some attention-garnering wins? And what do we make of Clemson?

To get you up to speed, let's take a quick run through the eight teams in the 2011 Diamond Head Classic field, in order of their placement in the bracket. UTEP plays Clemson in the first round, Kansas State plays Southern Illinois, et al. You get the idea. And in case you'd rather not visualize an invisible bracket running across your computer screen, here's the bracket itself (PDF). To the preview:

UTEP

Where they stand: Things kicked off in ugly fashion for the 2011-12 Miners -- their season opener was a home loss to Texas-San Antonio -- and haven't improved much since. The Miners also own a home loss to Stephen F. Austin, they split with New Mexico State, and their only high-major opponent to date, a struggling Oregon team, topped them in Eugene. UTEP was no doubt thrilled when it landed Tim Floyd in the wake of the USC mess, but the big-name coach has a major project ahead of him in his second season in El Paso.

Key player: Senior forward Gabriel McCulley doesn't get as many touches as some of his teammates, but he still leads the Miners in scoring, rebounding and steals, and he gets his points efficiently -- his offensive rating of 116.7 is vastly better than any of UTEP's other main contributors.

Key stat: 22.6. That's the percentage of possessions on which UTEP (4-5) turns the ball over to its opponents, which ranks the Miners No. 237 in the country. Put simply, UTEP doesn't take care of the ball, and that trait is dragging what could otherwise be a decent offense down.

Best-case scenario: UTEP gets the kind of game it prefers in Clemson -- a slow-paced defensive battle -- and manages to hold on long enough to take down the Tigers and play Kansas State tough in the second round.

Worst-case scenario: A first-round loss should give way to a favorable second-round matchup in Southern Illinois, but at that point, thanks to the dearth of quality teams on the wrong side of the bracket, UTEP will have missed its one chance to get a remotely impressive win.

Clemson

Where they stand: It's hard to say. The Tigers are 6-4 this season, thanks in part to three disconcerting losses (to College of Charleston, Coastal Carolina and South Carolina, all at home). But the Tigers lost those games by three, one and three points, respectively, and thus far they've posted very impressive defensive-efficiency stats, the kind that lend confidence for the future. Perhaps this tournament, giving the Tigers the chance to test their mettle against the likes of Kansas State and/or Xavier, will help us form a more reliable picture.

Key player: Guard Andre Young is this team's leader in minutes and points, and he's been good at just about everything this year, posting an offensive rating of 129.8 (one of the top 40 in the country to date) while shooting efficiently, setting up his teammates and keeping turnovers to a minimum. Young's size (he's listed at 5-foot-9, which is almost certainly generous) could hold him back at times, but as far as efficient point guards go, he's a good one.

Key stat: 0.88. That's the number of points the Tigers allow to opponents per possession, which ranks them No. 17 in the country by Ken Pomeroy's metrics. It's a very good defense. But because Clemson has struggled to score, it has gotten bogged down in close games to seemingly inferior opponents at home, and its record has suffered as a result.

Best-case scenario: Clemson handles UTEP and moves on to play Kansas State -- another stout defensive team -- in the second round, where it finally wins one of those close games. Don't count the Tigers out.

Worst-case scenario: A loss to UTEP would certainly qualify. Then you're 6-5, and you've got a bunch of bad marks on your at-large sheet, and all of a sudden a trip to the NCAA tournament from the jumbled middle of the ACC is looking incredibly unlikely.

Kansas State

Where they stand: Quietly and steadily, Kansas State coach Frank Martin has his team off to a 7-1 start in 2011-12. The Wildcats' only loss came in double OT to West Virginia, but they bounced back with a 71-58 victory over Alabama on Saturday. For many, that might be proof enough that Martin's team is back and ready to wreak havoc in the Big 12. But a solid trip to Hawaii certainly couldn't.

Key player: Kansas State doesn't always look fluid on offense; when the Wildcats get their points, it's usually because freshman forward Thomas Gipson already hauled down a miss. Gipson has been something of a revelation early in his career, particularly on the offensive boards, and without his and fellow forward Jamar Samuels' contributions under the rim, K-State really struggles to score.

Key stat: 41.4. That's what Wildcats' opponents are shooting from the field (as measured by effective field-goal percentage) this season. That's the 11th-lowest mark in Division I hoops and a key reason why this defense has been so stout so far this season.

Best-case scenario: A championship. If Xavier isn't the favorite anymore -- and we'll see -- then it has to be Kansas State, which has one of the most talented outfits on the island and can heartily defend (like Clemson) but can also score a little bit, too (unlike Clemson).

Worst-case scenario: It's hard to imagine K-State falling to a truly bad SIU team in the first round, so worst-case is probably a loss in a knock-down, drag-'em-out defensive slugfest with Clemson in Round 2. If the Wildcats fall there, they lose a chance to play and beat the Musketeers in the finale, and that would be a nice little addition to the tournament resume.

Southern Illinois

Where they stand: On shaky ground. Remember when Southern Illinois was a mid-major darling and coach Chris Lowery was the next big thing? Those days are long gone now, and in their place is yet another brutal Salukis squad, one off to a 3-5 start that includes losses to Western Kentucky, Western Michigan, Northeastern and -- believe it or not -- something called Ohio Dominican. SIU's only wins to date: Chicago State, Northern Illinois, SIU-Edwardsville, three of the cupcakiest opponents you'll ever see. Yeah. It's bad.

Key player: Mamadou Seck. For one, he has a fantastic name. Two, he's basically Lowery's only effective player, a guy who contributes points, blocks, steals, assists and rebounding on both ends of the floor.

Key stat: 0.89. That's how many points the Salukis are averaging per possession this season. For reference's sake, it ranks them No. 314 in the country. There are 345 D-I basketball teams. You get the idea.

Best-case scenario: A win or two in the consolation rounds, maybe, or at least some signs of progress in close losses.

Worst-case scenario: Three more losses and the unfortunate continuation of what has already been a painful nonconference slate.

Long Beach State

Where they stand: Long Beach State's record doesn't come anywhere close to doing this team justice. Sure, the Beach is 5-5, but look closer. The 49ers have beaten Pitt in its own building. They lost by four at San Diego State, two at Montana, eight at Kansas and six at North Carolina, and they gave Louisville a decent run in the Yum! Center, too. This is an interesting tournament for Dan Monson's team. It clearly has the ability to hang with top teams on the road, let alone on a neutral floor, and gets to face a crippled Xavier squad in the first round. Could LBSU really pull this thing off?

Key player: The dynamic duo of Casper Ware and Larry Anderson. Ware and Anderson form one of, if not the, best mid-major backcourt duos in the country -- combined, they averaged 32.6 points per game -- and both are at their best when attacking opposing defenses off a miss in the open court. They're both good, and they're both very fun to watch. Don't miss 'em.

Key stat: 71.0. That's the number of possessions the 49ers average per game, which ranks them among the 20 or so fastest teams in the country. LBSU wants to run, run, run and then run some more, and if an opposing defense doesn't have its guard up, look out.

Best-case scenario: A championship! LBSU can play with the big boys, as it has proved in some incredibly hostile and difficult road environments this season. What's more, the 49ers get Xavier in the first round, before guard Mark Lyons finishes his suspension for his role in the Cincy-Xavier brawl two weeks ago. Call it an early Christmas present for Monson and company. If they get past the Muskies, hey, they might just win this thing.

Worst-case scenario: A loss to Xavier, which would at the very least banish them to the consolation bracket and probably end any and all hopes -- slim though they were -- of garnering some at-large consideration from the tournament selection committee in March.

Xavier

Where they stand: Before the brawl, everything was peachy. The Musketeers were undefeated. Tu Holloway was doing his thing. In the post-brawl fallout, after suspensions to Holloway (one game), Lyons (two games) and Dezmine Wells (four games), the Musketeers looked putrid in a 64-42 home loss to Oral Roberts. Holloway is back for the start of the Diamond Head, but Lyons will miss one more game. Wells didn't make the trip. Can Xavier overcome the losses and assume its rightful position as this tournament's clear favorite?

Key player: Holloway. Xavier has had a tendency to underperform for roughly 35 minutes at any given time this season, at which point Holloway has rescued them with late 3s and clutch heroics. Without Lyons as his running mate Thursday, Tu won't be able to wait that long.

Key stat: 40.2. That would be Xavier's opponents' effective field-goal percentage, and if you remember the Kansas State stat, you'll know that it is very low -- the sixth-lowest in the country, to be precise. Xavier gets out on top of you, and it has both the speed and physicality to make sure good looks at the rim are rare.

Best-case scenario: A title. Frankly, Xavier should be the favorite, even with all the post-brawl personnel losses. Even with Wells at home, the Musketeers will be the most talented team on the island.

Worst-case scenario: That said, taking on LBSU's Ware-and-Anderson show without Lyons is a daunting task. It wouldn't be a shock to see Xavier drop this one, at which point it would be in the consolation bracket and facing the loser of the Auburn-Hawaii game. Ouch.

Auburn

Where they stand: Here's to a forgiving schedule. The Tigers are 7-1 to begin the season, but check out this hardy list of opponents: McNeese State, Kennesaw State, Nicholls State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Seton Hall, South Florida, North Florida, Florida A&M. The loss (81-59) came at Seton Hall. The wins came at home. Michigan State, this is not.

Key player: This team's main strength is blocked shots, and its chief purveyor of the rejection is forward Kenny Gabriel, who records a swat on 12.2 percent of available possessions. (Fellow forward Rob Chubb is no slouch defending the rim, either.)

Key stat: 20.4. That's the percentage of available possessions when this team records a block, the third-highest in the country to date. That's a lot of blocks! Unfortunately, the Tigers haven't shown much offensive know-how just yet, and they're weak in other areas. (And, to be fair, those block rates might be the product of playing that murderer's row of interior talent you see listed above.) Either way, that mark trails only Kentucky and Connecticut this season. That has to be worth something.

Best-case scenario: A win in the first round and an encouraging coming-out party -- win or lose -- in a second-round matchup against a full-strength Xavier team. At the very least, it would help improve that dreadful nonconference strength of schedule. Ick.

Worst-case scenario: A loss to Hawaii in the first round and a blowout to either Xavier or LBSU in the second.

Hawaii

Where they stand: Gib Arnold's team is 5-4 and ranked No. 231 in Pomeroy's rankings. That kind of says it all. The wins have come against Cal-State Northridge, UC Davis, Pacific, Hawaii-Hilo and North Carolina A&T; the losses were a product of matchups with Gonzaga, Eastern Washington, Pepperdine and Pacific. That's exactly what you'd expect. The good news? Hawaii doesn't have to do the traveling, time-change adjusting, touristing and everything else that comes with a trip to Hawaii. The Warriors can just play. Maybe that's good for an upset or two?

Key player: Zane Johnson is this team's leading scorer, but forward Vander Joaquim -- 11.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.4 blocks per game -- is its most productive player, and one the Warriors will need if they plan on playing at the rim with the block-happy Tigers.

Key stat: 24.3 percent. That's Hawaii's turnover rate this season, which puts it near the bottom 50 or so in the country and has, along with subpar shooting, truly stunted this offense to date.

Best-case scenario: Auburn hasn't had to experience road basketball often this season, let alone road basketball in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, so Arnold's team might have an early upset (so to speak) in them here. But with LBSU or Xavier awaiting in the second round, it's hard to picture the Warriors going any further than that.

Worst-case scenario: Finishing without a win, which would mean (almost certainly) losing to Southern Illinois at some point. Losses to Southern Illinois are probably best avoided. To put it kindly.

Before we get to the Blue Ribbon team-by-team previews for Conference USA, here is Eamonn Brennan's one-minute wind sprint through the league:



Blue Ribbon's in-depth previews of all 12 C-USA teams:

East Carolina
Houston
Marshall
Memphis
Rice
SMU
Southern Miss
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UTEP

More C-USA content:

-- Memphis coach Josh Pastner claims Marshall should be Conference USA favorite. In his Daily Word, Andy Katz examines the Herd's rising expectations.
-- Eamonn Brennan shares his Five Things I Can't Wait To See in C-USA.
-- Jay Bilas examines five burning questions in the league.
-- Dave Telep gives a lowdown on the recruiting picture in Conference USA.
-- Let's take a team-by-team look at the league's nonconference schedules.
-- Katz checks in with a unique pair of assistants at Memphis: Damon Stoudamire and a locked-out Luke Walton.
-- For more coverage of Conference USA in the Nation blog, click here.

Yep, it's that time of year again. Here are five things I can't wait to see in the 2011-12 version of Conference USA.

1. How long will there even be a Conference USA?

Unfortunately, this doesn't have much to do with basketball, but it is the biggest question facing the conference at large in the coming year. You probably know the drill by now: The Big East needs to expand. To do so, it might try to snatch up a handful of C-USA stalwarts -- schools such as Memphis, Central Florida or East Carolina. If those moves go down, C-USA would be undeniably weakened, both in football and basketball. Where does it go from there? Can it go anywhere at all? What does that mean for those schools deemed undesirable by the currently expanding high-major conferences? This might be the least appealing storyline in college sports, but in C-USA's case, it is unfortunately one worth watching.

2. Can Memphis make the leap?

With freshmen, you never know. Last season, Josh Pastner's first recruiting class at the school came with big expectations and bigger talk -- Will Barton, the No. 8-ranked player in the class of 2010, felt so confident in his highly touted classmates he even predicted a national title before he had played a single college basketball game. It was fair to expect the Tigers to be good, if not dominant, despite being so very young.

Things didn't quite go according to Barton's plan. Pastner's young team struggled for much of the season. At times, the rail-thin Barton looked physically overmatched at the collegiate level. Few defenders were capable of corralling freshman point guard Joe Jackson, but few guards were as capable of creating their own mistakes. The team had but one true post presence in freshman Tarik Black. Growing pains became the order of the season.

In 2011-12, the Tigers are even more talented. Pastner added one of the few truly elite players in the class of 2011, No. 2-ranked small forward Adonis Thomas, to a team that is just still every bit as talented -- but with more experience and less youth. That dynamic has many ranking Memphis in the top 15 to begin the season. It even caused Barton to make another prediction. Will it come true in 2012? Maybe not. But the second time around, it doesn't feel quite so ridiculous. That's something.

3. Can UCF be an NCAA tournament team?

For the first two months of the 2011 season, Central Florida, led by Michael Jordan's offspring, Marcus Jordan, was one of the nation's most surprising stories. The Knights began with 14 straight wins, including one against Florida and one against Miami. Then came the fade: UCF lost its next eight games and 11 of its final 16, including a 15-point loss to East Carolina in the first round of the Conference USA tournament. At one point, UCF looked like a tourney team. That impression was corrected quickly. So are we silly for thinking they might be able to get close this season? Or was last season's start just a particularly hot streak? How good is Marcus Jordan, anyway? I'll be honest: I'm not sure. Whatever happens, it should be fun to watch.

4. Forget Central Florida -- what about the rest of the contenders?

The Knights might be the team that induces the most curiosity, but it hasn't been one of the most relevant teams in the league in recent seasons. That honor goes to UAB and UTEP, coached by Mike Davis and Tim Floyd, respectively. Can either coach make it to the tournament in 2012? It seems unwise to bet against either, given the recent success each has had, but neither coach enters the season with an experienced team. Floyd loses four seniors from his starting lineup. Davis loses two. Both coaches will have to replace those players with young talent quickly to keep Memphis from running away with the league to stay tight with an improving Tulsa team and to fend off intriguing challengers like Marshall.

5. The land of misfit toys.

Without waxing too poetic, there's something weirdly romantic about the current Conference USA. Consider the formerly disgraced or summarily dismissed coaches who have found solace in the comforting embrace of C-USA hoops: UTEP coach Floyd landed at the school after an ugly departure at USC; Davis came to UAB after the expectations at Indiana became too much; Larry Eustachy has battled his way to a redemptive position at Southern Miss; Matt Doherty has put the here-today, gone-tomorrow trauma of his brief UNC tenure behind him at SMU. East Carolina's Jeff Lebo (from Auburn) and Rice's Ben Braun (from Cal) resurfaced in this league after getting the proverbial heave-ho.

Whatever your feelings on each of these coaches, you can't say they can't coach. There's talent in the basketball offices of this league. There's talent on the floor, too. For now, most of it is at Memphis, and that's nothing new. But don't be surprised if we see a few breakthroughs this season. In a league such as this, a good coach is only a few big wins away.

EAST CAROLINA

Toughest: at Old Dominion (Nov. 29)
Next-toughest: vs. Appalachian State in Charlotte (Nov. 22), Charlotte (Dec. 3), UMass (Dec. 6)
The rest: Milligan (Nov. 11), at Campbell (Nov. 14), Coker (Nov. 17), Chowan (Nov. 26), at UNC Greensboro (Dec. 16), Coastal Carolina (Dec. 19), Gardner-Webb (Dec. 22), North Carolina Central (Dec. 29), UVA-Wise (Dec. 31)
Toughness scale (1-10): 1 -- Can it be anything else? There are three schools on here that I'm guessing most college basketball fans have never even heard of. The Pirates won 18 games and made the postseason in 2011 -- one would think the schedule could be beefed up just a bit. Playing two A-10 teams isn’t bad and it helps that both are at home. But there are really no serious challenges after Dec. 6. This has the look of a CIT-worthy schedule.

HOUSTON

Toughest: vs. Arkansas in Little Rock (Nov. 18), LSU (Nov. 29)
Next-toughest: vs. Oklahoma in Oklahoma City (Dec. 17), Oakland (Nov. 22)
The rest: Grambling (Nov. 12), Utah Valley (Nov. 14), TCU (Nov. 26), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Dec. 3), at Texas State (Dec. 6), UTSA (Dec. 10), Rogers State (Dec. 21), North Carolina A&T (Dec. 28), Texas State (Dec. 30)
Toughness scale (1-10): 3 -- The Cougars did a good job of trolling for higher-level teams that are rebuilding or in transition. Playing Arkansas is a quality game and it’s technically on a neutral court. Houston won 12 games last season and James Dickey will need to show improvement before a loaded recruiting class comes in next season. This schedule should help rack up the W's at the very least.

MARSHALL

Toughest: at Cincinnati (Nov. 25), at Syracuse (Dec. 6) vs. West Virginia in Charleston, W.Va. (Jan. 18)
Next-toughest: Ohio (Nov. 30), Iona (Dec. 11), Belmont (Dec. 19), Akron (Jan. 1)
The rest: Alabama State (Nov. 11), Jacksonville State (Nov. 13), Northwestern State (Nov. 19), at UNC Wilmington (Nov. 22), High Point (Dec. 17), West Virginia Tech (Dec. 21)
Toughness scale (1-10): 8 -- Coach Tom Herrion, who said he has a team that could challenge for the C-USA title, did a tremendous job of putting together a schedule that could garner an at-large berth if the Herd do their part. Playing three Big East teams -- all away from home -- will not only give Marshall a chance at quality wins, but also boost the nonconference RPI. There are also a lot of sneaky-good mid-major opponents in here that will help the schedule strength, such as Iona, Ohio, Akron and Belmont, which MU plays twice.

MEMPHIS

Toughest: Maui Invitational (Nov. 21-23), at Louisville (Dec. 17), at Georgetown (Dec. 22), Xavier (Feb. 4)
Next-toughest: Belmont (Nov. 15), Austin Peay (Dec. 3), at Miami-Fla. (Dec. 6), Tennessee (Jan. 4)
The rest: Jackson State (Nov. 28), Murray State (Dec. 11), Lipscomb (Dec. 19), Robert Morris (Dec. 29), Charlotte (Dec. 31)
Toughness scale (1-10): 9 -- The Tigers can edge this to a 10 if they end up playing Duke in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational and then possibly Kansas or UCLA on Day 3. The road games at Louisville, Georgetown and Miami are all big-time tests, and playing Xavier and Belmont at home will be two of the toughest games at FedExForum all season. This is the kind of schedule Memphis has to play.

RICE

Toughest: South Padre Invitational (Nov. 25-26), Temple (Dec. 19), at Texas A&M (Dec. 22), at Texas (Dec. 31)
Next-toughest: at TCU (Jan. 4)
The rest: New Orleans (Nov. 12), Southern (Nov. 17), Maryland-Eastern Shore (Nov. 20), Florida A&M (Nov. 22), at Houston Baptist (Nov. 30), St. Thomas (Dec. 3), Louisiana College (Dec. 14), Lamar (Dec. 17), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Dec. 28)
Toughness scale (1-10): 7 -- Rice won just five games in Conference USA last season and 14 overall, so this is a heck of a challenging schedule for these guys. The Owls play road games against Big 12 contenders Texas A&M and Texas, have to face Northern Iowa and sneaky sleeper Iowa State on a neural court and get a rare home game against a possible top-25 opponent in Temple -- a battle of the Owls!

SMU

Toughest: NIT Season Tip-Off (Nov. 14-25), vs. Oklahoma State in Dallas (Dec. 28), at Ole Miss (Jan. 3)
Next-toughest: TCU (Feb. 8)
The rest: McMurry (Nov. 11), Florida Gulf Coast (Nov. 19), Georgia Southern (Nov. 27), at Arkansas-Little Rock (Dec. 4), at Southeast Missouri State (Dec. 19), Dallas Christian (Dec. 22), Louisiana Tech (Dec. 31)
Toughness scale (1-10): 4 -- The Mustangs could see this scale jump up a few more notches if they beat Colorado State in the NIT opener and then take out host Stanford to get to New York for the NIT semis. Do that and suddenly SMU will be a player into the winter and the games against Oklahoma State and Ole Miss become relevant. But that's asking a lot of a team that's expected to finish in the bottom half of C-USA.

SOUTHERN MISS

Toughest: at Colorado State (Nov. 19), Ole Miss (Dec. 17), at Arizona State (Dec. 19), South Florida (Dec. 22)
Next-toughest: at Denver (Nov. 17), Great Alaska Shootout (Nov. 24-26), New Mexico State (Dec. 4), at South Alabama (Dec. 7).
The rest: Spring Hill (Nov. 12), at South Alabama (Dec. 7), Louisiana Tech (Dec. 10), Belhaven (Dec. 27), Alcorn State (Dec. 29), at McNeese State (Dec. 31)
Toughness scale (1-10): 4 -- Coach Larry Eustachy said this could be his best team in Hattiesburg. If that’s the case, then a schedule upgrade would've been useful. The four toughest games come against teams that probably aren’t getting close to the NCAAs. The Great Alaska Shootout is weak, and the potential second-round opponent (New Mexico State) is a team USM already has scheduled anyway. The best they can do in the final is San Francisco or Murray State. Let's be frank: the Golden Eagles will have a hard time getting an at-large bid from this schedule.

TULANE

Toughest: at Syracuse (Dec. 22), Georgia Tech (Dec. 3)
Next-toughest: at Wofford (Dec. 6)
The rest: Alabama A&M (Nov. 11), Nicholls State (Nov. 15), Maryland-Eastern Shore (Nov. 18), at Navy (Nov. 22), Alcorn State (Nov. 25), New Orleans (Nov. 26), San Diego (Nov. 27), Southern (Nov. 30), Macmurray (Dec. 10), Jacksonville State (Dec. 11), at Texas-Pan American (Dec. 31)
Toughness scale (1-10): 3 -- The road game at Syracuse raises the level for this nonconference slate and going to Wofford won’t be an easy chore at all. Being able to host an ACC school (Georgia Tech) in tiny Fogelman Arena is a coup, but this isn’t exactly a top-level schedule. This is built for a team that won three conference games last season.

TULSA

Toughest: Charleston Classic (Nov. 17-20), at Missouri State (Nov. 26), at Oklahoma State (Nov. 30), Wichita State (Dec. 7), Creighton (Dec. 19),
Next-toughest: Arizona State (Dec. 3), at TCU (Dec. 31)
The rest: Arkansas-Little Rock (Nov. 11), Southeastern Louisiana (Nov. 13), at Jackson State (Nov. 22), UT Arlington (Dec. 17), Mercer (Dec. 28)
Toughness scale (1-10): 7 -- Tulsa coach Doug Wojcik did a solid job of putting together a postseason schedule for a team that finished tied for second last season with UTEP. The Golden Hurricane host the two best teams in the Missouri Valley (Creighton and Wichita State) and travel to play the defending league champ (Missouri State). Oklahoma State is clearly a rigid road challenge and getting a Pac-12 program (ASU) to come to Tulsa is a nice addition. As for the Charleston Classic, it could pit Tulsa against Northwestern or LSU in the second round if it gets past Western Kentucky.

UAB

Toughest: Creighton (Nov. 16), at Wichita State (Nov. 25), at VCU (Dec. 20), at Florida (Jan. 3)
Next-toughest: Murray State (Nov. 20), at Kent State (Dec. 3), at George Washington (Dec. 28)
The rest: Troy (Nov. 22), UT Martin (Nov. 27), at South Alabama (Nov. 30), Middle Tennessee (Dec. 7), Jacksonville (Dec. 22), Alabama A&M (Dec. 31)
Toughness scale (1-10): 6 -- The Blazers have a top-10 game at Florida and then play the co-favorites in the Missouri Valley Conference, with one of the games on the road in Wichita. Playing four more road games, including at VCU, helps the power-rating.

UCF

Toughest: at Florida State (Nov. 14), Battle 4 Atlantis (Nov. 24-26), Old Dominion (Dec. 17)
Next-toughest: UCF Holiday Classic (Dec. 29-30)
The rest: St. Thomas (Nov. 12), High Point (Nov. 18), Hartford (Dec. 3), Bethune Cookman (Dec. 10), North Carolina A&T (Dec. 13), at Louisiana-Lafayette (Dec. 21), Palm Beach Atlantic (Jan. 30)
Toughness scale (1-10): 4 -- Central Florida could end up seeing this number rise if it beats Charleston and ends up playing Connecticut in the semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantis tourney in the Bahamas. Either Rhode Island or James Madison could be dangerous at the UCF Holiday Classic and ODU is always tough. The Knights couldn’t capitalize on beating Florida last season, so taking out FSU early would be looked upon skeptically -- but they'll take it nonetheless.

UTEP

Toughest: at Oregon (Nov. 29), at UNLV (Dec. 14), Diamond Head Classic (Dec. 22-25)
Next-toughest: at New Mexico State (Nov. 19), New Mexico State (Dec. 11), Don Haskins Sun Bowl Invitational
The rest: UTSA (Nov. 11), UC Riverside (Nov. 13), Stephen F. Austin (Nov. 26), Southern (Dec. 17), McNeese State (Dec. 19)
Toughness scale (1-10): 6 -- Tim Floyd may benefit greatly from this schedule if some of these teams excel as predicted. Oregon could be a top-four team in the Pac-12, UNLV is a co-MWC title contender and Clemson should be a top-half ACC team. The Miners open with the Tigers out in Honolulu and play either Kansas State or Southern Illinois in the second game. A rising program in Colorado State is a good opponent to bring to the Sun Bowl Invitational. Then again, UTEP lost quite a bit, so this schedule might end up just being meaningless on Selection Sunday.

Tournament bracket for the Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic

When and where: Dec. 22-23, 25 at the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawaii

Initial thoughts: This looks like Xavier’s tournament to lose. … Interested to see how Frank Martin retools his lineup after losing Jacob Pullen, Curtis Kelly plus transfers Wally Judge (Rutgers) and Freddy Asprilla (Canisius). … Big year for Chris Lowery and therefore a big tournament for the Southern Illinois coach, who needs to right the Salukis’ ship. … This could be a tough draw for an extremely young UTEP team. The Miners have 10 newcomers on their roster, including seven freshmen. … Not a great matchup for an Auburn squad that struggled to score and shoot well last season. Hawaii will be playing on its home court and prides itself on defense, holding opponents to just 38 percent shooting last season.

Matchup I can’t wait to see: Long Beach State versus Xavier. The biggest challenge for the Musketeers could be in the first game, where an experienced LBSU team awaits. The Big West regular-season winners (who were upset in the conference tourney) return their three top scorers for coach Dan Monson and will have plenty of veteran savvy to handle the smarts of a very good Xavier team.

Potential matchup I’d like to see: Xavier-Clemson. Now entering his senior season in the ACC, Andre Young has seen it all. The seasoned point guard is a good shooter but an even better floor leader, so it could be fun watching him go toe-to-toe with Tu Holloway. The rest of the Clemson cast is retooling, with the graduation of Jerai Grant and Demontez Stitt, but there is still enough for Brad Brownell to tinker with.

Key players to watch:

Devin Booker, Clemson: Trevor’s little brother could make a name for himself as his offensive skill set continues to grow. Already a defensive force in the low post, Booker showed a decent repertoire during his sophomore season, averaging 8.1 points.

Tu Holloway, Xavier: Already the defending Atlantic 10 player of the year, Holloway is on the cusp of something special. With a great team surrounding him, he could follow in the footsteps of another A-10 guard who possessed incredible offensive skill and unmatched basketball savvy -- a guy by the name of Jameer Nelson -- and find himself on some national player of the year ballots.

Casper Ware, Long Beach State: What the diminutive point guard lacks in stature (he’s listed at 5-foot-10), he makes up for everywhere else. The senior-to-be won both Big West player and defensive player of the year last season and is the 49ers’ leader on both ends of the floor.

Rodney McGruder, Kansas State: Without Pullen and Kelly, the Wildcats’ scoring responsibilities fall directly into the lap of McGruder. A solid role player a year ago -- he averaged a more-than-respectable 11.1 points per game -- how he handles being front and center for reorganized KSU will determine just how good the Wildcats can be.

Frankie Sullivan, Auburn: He would have been the Tigers’ best player a year ago, but an ACL injury dashed his hopes and any Tony Barbee had as well. The guard, who averaged 12.7 points a year earlier, gives Auburn a floor leader to build around.

Predicted winner: Xavier. The Musketeers are easily the class of this tournament, a legitimate Top 25 team that has more talent, depth and experience than anyone else heading to Honolulu.

Who others are picking:

Eamonn Brennan: Xavier
Andy Katz: Xavier
Diamond Leung: Xavier

In Wednesday's loss at East Carolina, UTEP coach Tim Floyd was given two technicals, ejected and then had to be escorted off the court by a police officer.

Here are five things I can't wait to see in Conference USA this season:

1. Memphis' young talent

Two weeks ago, Memphis freshman Will Barton -- the gem of Josh Pastner's top-five recruiting class -- went out on a limb. Doing his best Joe Namath (or at least his best impression of every other player who's attempted to have their own Namath moments over the years), Barton told Memphis fans that the Tigers were going to the Final Four this season. "I'm guaranteeing it," he said. You can quarrel with Barton's prediction, but it's hard to hate that swag, and if Memphis' freshmen don't share it, they should.

In his first full year recruiting, Pastner landed the type of recruiting class the school got used to under former coach John Calipari -- deep, talented, precocious, and based around a likely one-and-done star. That star is Barton, the top-ranked shooting guard in the 2010 class, and the class also includes elite top-100 recruits like Joe Jackson (the No. 6-ranked point guard), Jelan Kendrick (the No. 11-ranked shooting guard) and Tarik Black (the No. 15-ranked power forward). All four players will be immediate contributors on a team that looks talented enough to retake the Conference USA mantle after the program's one-year post-Calipari dip.

2. Josh Pastner's team-building

Recruiting is half the battle and Pastner's young team, like so many of his predecessor's, could probably have a successful year with a fifth-grade coach on the sidelines. But if Memphis wants to do more than dominate C-USA, Pastner is going to have to do what Calipari did (and does) so masterfully: He's going to have to turn his collection of young stars into an actual team. Can he do it? We don't have much coaching reference for Pastner, who, at 33, is a lot like his team: young, insanely talented, and ultimately unproven.

Memphis has a couple of veterans -- forward Wesley Witherspoon especially -- it will need to complement the freshmen. Can Pastner build his individual stars into a cohesive unit? If he does, Barton's prediction might not look quite as ambitious after all.

3. The return of Larry Eustachy

Remember Larry? Sure you do. Eustachy has had a long road back since the rather hilarious photos of him drinking cheap college-level beer with the outstanding young women of Ames cost him his job at Iowa State. Since 2004-05, Eustachy has been patiently attempting to build a winner at Southern Miss. Results have been sporadic, but there are signs that this season could be Eustachy's best since the Natural Lights heard 'round the world. Southern Miss returns its top six scorers from last season's 20-14 team, and its recruiting class includes valuable junior college transfer Carrington Tankson, who should provide an immediate perimeter scoring boost. If there's a void in the C-USA's sub-Memphis second tier, Eustachy and the Golden Eagles might just be the team to fill it.

4. Tim Floyd's prodigal return to UTEP

UTEP made a bold choice in hiring Floyd. The former USC coach resigned when reports of an illicit payment to an O.J. Mayo handler made an already besieged USC athletics program look even worse. Floyd, a former assistant at UTEP, found refuge in El Paso. It's hard to say who needed whom more. Floyd wanted a place to continue coaching after the Mayo mess; the Miners, seeking to maintain the recent momentum of now-Auburn-coach Tony Barbee's successful tenure, wanted a coach who could build a competitive team as quickly as possible. Floyd can do that. Whether his tenure in West Texas will be as dramatic as his stint in South L.A. remains to be seen. In the meantime, guard Randy Culpepper will still be extremely fun to watch, and UTEP, though not nearly as talented after the departures of forwards Arnett Moultrie and Derrick Caracter, will still rank among the conference's better teams.

5. A Tulsa turning point?

This time last year, it appeared Tulsa coach Doug Wojcik was -- or at least appeared to be -- almost there. The Golden Hurricane had just completed its third-straight 20-win season, the inside-out combo of guard Ben Uzoh and center Jerome Jordan looked ready to reign over a down C-USA. And with a totally plausible NCAA tournament appearance in the offing, Wojcik would assume the hot-new-coach mantle previously held at the school by Bill Self, Tubby Smith, Nolan Richardson, Buzz Peterson and others. Things didn't quite go as planned. Instead, Tulsa limped to a 10-6 conference record and a 23-12 overall mark -- decent, to be sure, but hardly the stuff ascendant programs are made of. Now Uzoh and Jordan are gone, and Wojcik will be counting on fifth-year senior Justin Hurtt and a handful of solid newcomers to prevent the program from losing any more of its momentum.

The immediate answer is: Yes. Yes it is. Faced with a rule that prevents coaches from hiring people associated with recruits to non-basketball positions in a college program -- a rule designed to prevent the sketchy package deals that have become a fixture of elite recruiting in the past few years -- Floyd found a loophole. He hired one as an assistant coach instead.

Naturally, new Floyd assistant and former prep school coach Jason Niblett, whose name sounds like a particularly tasty snack, has denied that his hiring was connected to the decisions of recruits Michael Haynes and Desmond Lee, two of his former players, to attend UTEP. Which, you know, of course he did. But that doesn't make it any less fishy. (Haynes, for one, turned down scholarship offers from programs like Duke, UCLA and Texas to play for Floyd's rebuilding UTEP team. Of course he did.)

Still, the question stands: Is Tim Floyd's hiring of Niblett a particularly bad thing?

Today, Rob Dauster makes a case that though Floyd's Niblett hiring is unsavory and against the spirit of the NCAA's new rule, it's not as blatant as famed package deals of yore:

My question is whether Floyd actually did anything wrong here. Sure, it looks sketchy. I can't disagree. [...] Being a successful college basketball program is based on your ability to recruit. Based on their resumes, one can assume that these two guys are going to be able to recruit for Floyd. Recruiting is based on connections. [...] But these two hirings are different than your typical package deal. This isn't the hiring of Mario Chalmers' father or Tyreke Evans' trainer. These are two coaches that got offered better jobs and brought their players with them. When a head coach gets a better job, and he brings along his players or recruits, is that considered a package deal as well?

I'd argue that it is. Perhaps those coaches can be valuable. Perhaps Niblett is going to be a really good recruiter, that his coaching acumen is equal to or greater than any of the prospective high school coaches angling for jobs all over the country. But by taking the UTEP job in this manner, whatever merit Niblett may have as a coach goes out the window. He's now the guy who Tim Floyd hired to get two recruits. That might not be fair, but that's the way it is.

Is that really the message college hoops coaches ought to send? That the way to get a high-profile assistant job -- because you can't become a strength trainer or an administrator or a janitor under the NCAA's new rule -- is to attach yourself to skilled players and use them to propel yourself into the next level? Is that really the precedent we ought to set? What about all those coaches who stay out of the AAU fray? Who refuse to piggyback on top recruits? What about coaches who just, you know, coach?

Now the cat is out of the bag. The package deal still exists. The NCAA can't stop it unless it decides to extend its new rule to prevent hiring assistants with ties to recruits, too, the equivalent of carpet-bombing an entire golf course to take out one pesky gopher. In the end, though, maybe that's the only solution. Plug one hole, and the gopher pops up again. He's not going anywhere.

I did not see this one coming.

Derrick Caracter's NBA dream is currently his No. 1 focus. He left UTEP after his junior year at the school despite his discouraging "second round to undrafted" draft projection, and he has to make a go of it now, because getting in the 2010 NBA draft as an undersized big man with good skills and a legendary distaste for discipline is going to be very difficult work. Almost as difficult as joining the Navy and become a full-time enlisted man. Which, failing a future in professional basketball, is what Caracter wants to do.

Like I said, I did not see this one coming. From Hoopshype:

"If Plan A doesn’t work out, Plan B would be joining the Navy," Caracter said. "I would do something like that. Seriously. I think it would be a great experience. You travel, you train, you can be chillin’ in Japan. You get to see different things and differents parts of the world. That’s something I always wanted to do: travel around the world. See different things, new people, cultures and lifestyles."

I'm not sure being in the Navy quite comes down to travel, training, and "chilling in Japan," but that's certainly a well-assembled pitch. Somewhere, the man at your local Navy recruitment office is beaming. And somewhere, Rick Pitino is tearing his hair out. Oh, so NOW he craves discipline? NOW he wants to train?! Seriously? I give up. Or something like that.

(Hat tip: The Dagger)

Tim Floyd is going to be UTEP's next coach. It appears Steve Lavin is going to be doing something similar at St. John's. Two coaches, two jobs, two situations that take a decent amount of noodling before they begin to make sense.

It's easier to wrap one's head around Lavin, but it's still surprising. Lavin's name has appeared as a fringe coaching candidate for job after job since the former UCLA coach ceded his gig to Ben Howland in 2003, but the ESPN TV analyst has always cited his cushy broadcast gig and its built-in low expectations -- at least compared to coaching; irritated bloggers have nothing on irritated boosters -- as a reason to forgo a return to the sidelines. But every coach has that itch, and in St. John's, Lavin has found a place where the expectations won't remotely resemble what he faced at UCLA. He'll have a clean slate.

St. John's, meanwhile, can boast landing a "name" coach with a huge national profile. The downside: That coach doesn't have many ties to the New York City or its myriad recruiting connections. No matter. Lavin would be a buzzworthy hire, the kind of coach and personality that will immediately boost a basketball program that has turned into a Big East also-ran in the last 10 years.

Still, Lavin to St. John's. Huh. I did not see that coming.

More surprising is UTEP's decision to take a chance on hiring former USC coach Tim Floyd, who left that program amid allegations he had committed a recruiting violation in giving cash to Rodney Guillory, O.J. Mayo's handler during the star's short college career. The coach denies the allegations; Floyd and USC are still awaiting the NCAA's ruling on the matter. So why would UTEP take a chance on hiring a guy that might have a show-case penalty around his neck as soon as this summer? Andy Katz's story on the matter has the answer:

Multiple sources told ESPN.com that UTEP was assured before hiring Floyd that he would not be individually penalized in connection with the USC allegations. UTEP would not be prohibited from hiring Floyd, even if he were to receive a show-cause penalty from the NCAA -- in which any school hiring him would have to make its case for hiring him to the NCAA. But UTEP would only have to appear before the Committee on Infractions to see if any other sanctions will be placed upon him.

The question is, assured by who? By the NCAA? Is that even legal? And if not the NCAA, then who? Tim Floyd? Let's say the NCAA does find USC guilty of the charges it's currently considering. How would Tim Floyd -- who, again, allegedly handed O.J. Mayo's handler $1,000 in cash -- not be individually penalized in connection with the situation? How does that work? So Floyd would be able to skate away scot-free, take another job at another school, and coach again like nothing happened? What?

And before those of you starting bringing up the John Calipari-Memphis-Kentucky thing, remember that Calipari was never individually named or implicated in any of the Derrick Rose SAT stuff from last offseason. To the NCAA's lights, Calipari had nothing to do with that, and his move to Kentucky was treated accordingly. Floyd's situation seems far more specific.

In any case, we have time to see how all of this shakes out. Which is good, because I'd be lying if I said I understood either hiring completely, Floyd especially. In the meantime, those of us that will miss Lavin's unique brand of good-natured college hoops analysis can begin our funereal mourning. That era, it seems, is nearly over.

Yesterday we covered the love/hate inherent in this year's NCAA tournament bracket. Let's do something different today. Let's make five bold predictions -- predictions so bold your face will melt, probably, which is itself a bold prediction -- about what we can expect these next three weeks. Disclaimer: Bold predictions made with every intention of sincerity. There's nothing worse than people who make crazy predictions simply for the sake of making crazy predictions, am I right? (In other words, I'm going out on a limb here, but I do actually think this stuff can happen.)

With that, let's get right to it. In the year 2010 ...

1. Kansas will lose to Lehigh. Ha! Got you guys! Just kidding. Deep breaths, Kansas fans. I'm not that bold. The real No. 1 is:

1. Texas A&M will make the Elite Eight. (Or: Duke won't make the Final Four.) Don't get me wrong. Duke has the easiest path to the Final Four of any of the No. 1 seeds. The Blue Devils are a very impressive team on the court and on paper -- they're Ken Pomeroy's top adjusted efficiency team in the country for a reason. Duke should make the Final Four. But if there is an upset candidate before No. 3-seed Baylor in the South region, it's Texas A&M. The Aggies are a strong defensive team, ranked No. 23 in adjusted efficiency. Mark Turgeon has a pair of experienced tournament players in Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis, both of whom have been to four NCAA tournaments. And the Aggies have the benefit of not relying on jump shooting to get themselves points. Rather, the Aggies rely on their ability to get to the free throw line, which they do at the sixth-highest rate in the country. This is the sort of offensive game plan that should serve them well against anybody, even Duke.

2. Temple will beat Cornell. Yes, counts as "bold." Since the East's No. 5/No. 12 matchup was announced, Cornell looked like the most likely candidate for the ever-popular (and logistically sound) 12-over-5 upset, one of which you should be picking in your bracket every season. In fact, this meme has crossed over into consensus. But guess what? Temple is no slouch. In fact, the Owls are pretty blatantly underseeded as a No. 5. Temple has flown as far under the radar as any team from a multi-bid league that won its own conference AND conference tournament possibly could. The Owls are No. 18 overall in Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency rankings, a mark that exists primarily thanks to their third-ranked overall defense, a unit that allows fewer points per possession than any team in the tournament not named Florida State. Temple is the best team in the country at containing shooters; Cornell just so happens to be the best three-point shooting team in the country and the third best in team effective field goal percentage.

All of which means one simple thing: Cornell got jobbed. Everyone loves the Big Red, for good reason. A No. 12 seed is remarkably low for the best Ivy League team we've seen in years. But thanks to their matchup, Cornell's stay in this NCAA tournament should prove awfully short. That this might be considered a piece of unconventional wisdom -- "bold," as it were -- is a signal of just how high most people rate the Big Red.

3. BYU will edge Kansas State. OK, so this part of the limb might be a little further out than I wanted to tread, but the more I think about it, the more I think it's entirely possible the Cougars can top Kansas State in the second round in Oklahoma City. This BYU team is much better than their No. 7 seed. For starters the Cougars are a potent offensive team with a bonafide star in Jimmer Fredette and an experienced sidekick in Jonathan Tavernari. To be sure, Kansas State will be something of a shock to the Cougars' system -- BYU hasn't played a team that defends quite as thoroughly as the Wildcats. Nor do most teams attempt to run with BYU's uptempo offense. The Wildcats, who average 71.1 possessions per game, will be more than happy to go up and down with BYU for 40 minutes. In an up-and-down game like that, either of these teams can get especially hot and pull away before the other has a chance to regroup. Why can't that team be the Cougars?

4. UTEP will play Syracuse in the Sweet 16. And just how will they do that? By beating Butler in the first round and the winner of Vanderbilt-Murray State in the second. UTEP, like its first-round counterparts, are probably a bit better than their resume, and their resume is good. What's more, they're a tough matchup for Butler, whose lack of front-court depth could really struggle with the likes of Derrick Caracter and center Arnett Moultrie. After that small matter of business is concluded, the Miners will face a relatively forgiving No. 4 seed in Vanderbilt, a team that actually ranks behind the Miners in adjusted efficiency. It's one of the easier roads for any No. 12 seed into the Sweet Sixteen, and I think UTEP forges it.

5. Baylor will make the Final Four. At this point, so many people are picking Baylor to go deep into this tournament that this prediction hardly seems bold. Oh, but it is: The Bears are not a great defensive team, and they'll have to get through Villanova and Duke (or Texas A&M!) to make this prediction worthwhile. This is not un-bold, no matter how many people claim otherwise.

Still, though, I think the Bears have just as good a chance as any team in the South to emerge and play in Indianapolis on the first weekend of April. LaceDarius Dunn remains one of the country's most underrated players. Ekpe Udoh's overwhelming physicality will present issues for any team the Bears face. Most importantly, the Bears have an easy route to the Elite Eight -- their toughest test would ostensibly come from Villanova, a team equally indifferent on the defensive side of the ball and a team that lacks the size to match up with Udoh in the post. The South could get crazy. I think it does. And I think the Bears emerge unscathed.

Among the many complaints about this year's bracket, one that hasn't been discussed much is the pairings of non-BCS schools in the first round. There are four games in the opening round in which two non-BCS schools square off. Some people don't like this.

Speaking for those people this evening is Basketball Prospectus' Joe Sheehan. From Sheehan:

The committee did it again, matching up non-BCS schools aggressively and keeping them away from BCS schools. UNLV/Northern Iowa. Butler/UTEP. Temple/Cornell. Richmond/Saint Mary’s. The committee is taking one of the best things about the tournament – that the big guys have to play the little guys on a neutral floor – and destroying it, aggressively so. Defenders of the bracket and the committee will always point out that this isn’t intentional, but after it happens year-in, year-out, I simply don’t believe them. You can’t keep playing off the non-BCS schools one another every year and pretend it’s not a strategy. It very clearly is one, and it’s designed to prevent the possibility of the schools from smaller conferences showing that the main difference between them and the middle of the BCS leagues is home games. The committee and the NCAA should be embarrassed.

Ahem, well. In case it's not clear, Joe doesn't very much like it when non-BCS schools have to play each other in the first round of the tournament.

Joe's point is valid, though. The committee should be trying to avoid these sorts of matchups whenever possible -- the tournament is, at its essence, about the sort of big guys vs. little guy rivalry inherent in those non-BCS vs. BCS matchups, and without them, we lose a major part of what makes the NCAA tournament so great.

That said, I'm not sure this is an actual strategy on the part of the NCAA. Quite frankly, BYU, UNLV, UTEP hardly qualify as "little guys" -- all three are in conferences that sit above Kyle Whelliston's famous Red Line. Temple and Butler are, in their own limited ways, basketball powers. None of those five teams particularly feel like a weary underdog taking on the big, bad world of big-money college sports. Looking over the bracket, none of those matchups particularly struck me as unfair, and certainly none screamed of any strategy. (Moreover, teams from the Mountain West and Conference USA and even the Atlantic-10 can't have their mid-major status and eat it, too.)

All in all, though, the point remains: If possible, the committee needs to do its best to prevent these sorts of matchups in the first round in the future. Sure, there's no directive on this issue. It's not required. It'd just be a nice thing to do -- and good for the NCAA tournament as a whole. And that's the most important directive of all.

Update: Buster Sports' Adam Jacobi did the math and found that this year's distribution of non-major seeds looks a lot less like obvious strategy than unlucky mathematical distribution -- what he calls the flip of a coin. So, yeah, we're probably overreacting a bit.

I have no real complaints about the inclusions and exclusions from this year's field. My miss was Florida -- I had Illinois instead. Both teams had their flaws. I was a little suprised that the Gators bagged a No. 10 seed with a 1-8 record against the InsideRPI Top 25, but I'll have to dig a little to see if that was procedural.

Body Of Work
I'm delighted the committee applied more than top 50 wins in evaluating Utah State. To me, "body of work" can mean different things when evaluating different teams. Not everyone starts with a level playing field, and it appears the Aggies -- unlike many mid-majors before them -- convinced the committee that four months of sustained excellence was worth something.

Toughest Region
The Midwest appears to be the toughest region at first glance. It has the nation's top team (Kansas) plus a pair of what could have been No. 2 seeds (Ohio State and Georgetown). It also has my preseason national champion -- Michigan State -- but I think we know how that worked out.

Duke Has Clear Path
The South looks like a beefed up NIT field. Duke has no excuses this time for not reaching at least the second weekend. If I had to make a wager, Baylor would be my choice for the Final Four out of this region, joining Kansas, Syracuse and West Virginia in Indianapolis. I like Kansas over WVU in the national championship game.

OVERSEEDED: New Mexico, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida

UNDERSEEDED: Temple, Tennessee, Northern Iowa, San Diego State, UTEP

More On Seeding
For the first time, the Committee applied the provision that a conference with more than six teams in the field could have its members meet before a regional final. We could see a pair of Big East rematches in the Sweet 16: West Virginia vs. Marquette (East) and Villanova vs. Notre Dame (South).

Let's all sit back and really enjoy this tournament, just in case it's the last one with a 64-team bracket.

We're officially at that point of the tournament selection process where perceptions are pretty well solidified, and those perceptions carry over into the aftermath of the selection process.

Normally, after the committee seeds the field, there is at least one team -- usually a disrespected mid-major or a visually appealing big-six power -- that doesn't make the tournament, spawning countless protests in the aftermath. We take up the cause, harass the selection committee chairman for a few minutes, admit that seeding the NCAA tournament is difficult, and then move on with the awesomeness that is the next three weeks of our lives. This is the way of the world.

The 2010 NCAA tournament is going to be different, though. There will be -- or there ought not to be -- any such protests. Frankly, if you don't make it to the NCAA tournament, expect no sympathy. You will have earned your fate.

Really, what team on the bubble deserves your energetic advocacy? Illinois? Ugh. Mississippi State? Beat someone and we'll talk. Virginia Tech? Fix your nonconference schedule (and beat Miami). Ole Miss? Pshh. Florida? Twelve losses and limping into the tournament. Cal? Good schedule, few good wins, horrific conference. Rhode Island and Dayton both came up short. South Florida and Seton Hall missed vital wins in the Big East tournament. If UTEP is on the bubble, Memphis and UAB, both losers in the C-USA tournament, have to be out. Almost every bubble team, with the exception of Minnesota and now Mississippi State, have not only not helped their cases, but have actively hurt themselves in the final stretches of proving season. There's a reason everyone keeps calling this bubble soft. It is.

If you really feel the need to get a lather going, William and Mary might be a worthy candidate, but the Tribe's bad losses admittedly make them pretty easy to dismiss. Utah State is a lock in Lunardi's latest bracket, but if the Aggies fail to get in, they'd deserve the benefits of your populist angst.

Other than that, the 2010 NCAA tournament bubble is rife by teams that should accept their tournament fate not with euphoria or resentment but with meek, mumbling nods to the affirmative. Will we find a way to complain about at least one scorned team later today? Sure. We like to complain, after all. But should we? Not for these teams. Not this year.