ESPN Men's Basketball

It's college basketball preview season, and you know what that means: tons of preseason info to get you primed for 2013-14. But what do you really need to know? Each day for the next month, we'll highlight the most important, interesting or just plain amusing thing each conference has to offer this season — from great teams to thrilling players to wild fans and anything in between. Today: Weber State, and Damian who?

The 2012-13 NBA Rookie of the Year went from Weber State to the National Basketball Association for very good reasons. In 2011-12, Damian Lillard, to that point a relatively unheralded senior redshirt junior playing for a small mid-major program in Ogden, Utah, touched the ball on nearly a third of his team's possessions. Despite that burden, he posted a 124.4 offensive rating, the highest of any player with a usage rate above 28 percent, per Ken Pomeroy -- higher even than All-American Doug McDermott, who consumed fewer of his team's trips. Lillard's late-blooming offensive brilliance canceled out every concern NBA scouts had about Big Sky competition. That summer, the Portland Trail Blazers made him the sixth overall pick in the 2012 NBA Draft.

Back in Ogden, it was fair to expect Weber State to fade away. Frankly, the Wildcats were never in collective focus anyway -- they lost to all three (at Saint Mary's, at BYU, at Cal) of their significant nonconference opponents, fell short in OT in the Big Sky title game, and finished ranked No. 148 in the country in Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency. For a team with a future NBA Rookie of the Year running the show, Weber State flew way under the radar. And with Lillard gone, surely the opportunity was lost.

Which brings us to the big, predictably introduced reveal: Weber State didn't get worse. It got better. Randy Rahe's team won four more games (30-7) than in 2011-12. Its defense got drastically better, zooming from 258th in the country to 99th. That would have been the biggest surprise, but for this: The Wildcats' offense didn't regress a bit. Weber State posted the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage in the country (56.0), thanks in large part to lights-out, 45.6 percent-from-3 shooting from senior guard Scott Bamforth. The Wildcats finished No. 76 in Pomeroy's efficiency rankings. They weren't just better. They were much better.

They also missed the tournament. Again. Thanks to another close Big Sky loss, and no nonconference results, again.

Which is precisely why Weber State offers such an interesting watch for the season to come. Just as the Wildcats had to overcome the loss of their ball-dominating, NBA-ready point guard a year prior, this summer they're reconfiguring without Bamforth, one of the best pure shooters in the college game, and reliable senior forward Frank Otis, arguably the team's best rebounder. But Davion Berry, who shot 41.4 percent from 3 last season in his own right, and center Kyle Tresnak, a shot-blocker and rebounder who by now has a well-rounded interior game, are both back. So is freshman Joel Bolomboy, the 2012-13 Big Sky Newcomer of the Year.

In other words, this is the season Weber State might finally break through -- just 17 months after waving farewell to one of the best young players in the NBA. I'm pretty sure that's not how it's supposed to work. But Weber State just keeps getting better.

Before we get to the Blue Ribbon team-by-team previews for the Big Sky, here is Eamonn Brennan's quick wind sprint through the league:



Blue Ribbon breakdowns of all 11 teams in the Big Sky:

Eastern Washington
Idaho State
Montana
Montana State
North Dakota
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
Portland State
Sacramento State
Southern Utah
Weber State

Editor's note: Using a point system devised by the ESPN Stats & Information department, ESPN.com is counting down the 50 most successful programs of the past 50 years. A running list of the top 50 can be found here. For an explanation of the scoring system, read our intro.

39. Weber State (207 points)

Positives: Big Sky domination, as its 20 regular-season titles rank eighth most in the country over the past half-century. Fourteen conference tournament titles is tied for 11th most.

Negatives: For a program with 14 NCAA tournament appearances, it has only five wins in non-consolation games and two regional semifinal appearances. Also lost 11 points due to sanctions in 1996 and 2006.

Fun fact: Taking into account straight wins and losses with our win percentage scoring, Weber State (52) outscores other more notable Wildcat-nicknamed teams like Villanova (50) and Kansas State (30).

Rank by the decade
1962-69: 46 (T-20th)
1970-79: 68 (15th)
1980-89: 25 (T-89th)
1990-99: 29 (T-67th)
2000-present: 39 (T-69th)

50 in 50 starting five (1962-present)
G – Damian Lillard (2008-12)
G – Jermaine Boyette (2000-03)
F – Harold Arceneaux (1998-2000)
F – Bruce Collins (1976-80)
C – Willie Sojourner (1968-71)

Top options off the bench
Eddie Gill (1998-2000)
Jimmy Degraffenried (1991-96)
Rico Washington (1987-89)

50 in 50 coach: Phil Johnson (1968-71)

Best teams (1962-present)
1968-69 (27-3, NCAA Sweet 16)
1979-80 (26-3, NCAA first round)
1998-99 (25-8, NCAA second round)

--Nick Loucks and Brett Edgerton contributed to this post.

1. Jared Sullinger, Terrence Jones and Perry Jones III all returned for their sophomore seasons to be top-five picks and compete for a national title. None was invited to the NBA draft green room Thursday night. But none of them should regret a thing. Terrence Jones won a national title at Kentucky and wasn’t ready emotionally after his freshman season to leave, let alone from a basketball perspective. Sullinger reached the Final Four with Ohio State. Perry Jones III got to the Elite Eight with Baylor. Neither of them was ready a year ago, either. Revisionist history isn’t appropriate here. All three should still land in decent situations Thursday.

2. Terrence Ross was a late addition to the draft. The Washington sophomore wing could be a legit pick for Milwaukee, Phoenix or Philadelphia at Nos. 12, 13 and 15, respectively. Had Ross played in the Big East or the ACC he would probably be a household name. Having played at UW doesn’t mean he'll go higher, since teams are well aware of players all over the country (see Weber State’s Damian Lillard), but recognition of Ross wouldn’t be a question Thursday night.

3. As the NBA heads into the final two days of pre-draft drama, there are a number of teams looking to make a move. Milwaukee and Houston want to move up. Sacramento is willing to move down. Cleveland would love to get to No. 2. Charlotte could easily move back, even after the latest trade to get Ben Gordon. Golden State has plenty of flexibility and can stay where it is or move.

1. The Atlantic 10 needs to go on the offensive because it could potentially get poached by the MWC-CUSA merger. Charlotte is ripe for the picking since the 49ers are going to Division I football. The A-10 actually would be better if it was slimmed down by a few teams from 14. But losing Temple for 2013-14 isn’t the answer. The A-10 could definitely use a marquee program in the footprint (like VCU or Old Dominion).

2. Louisville coach Rick Pitino was right back in the fall and his influence with John Marinatto must have paid off. Adding Temple and Memphis for football is out of necessity. But the Big East had to add two established, tradition-rich basketball programs. Everyone in the Big East should fully expect Temple and Memphis to be fulltime players near the top of the conference for the foreseeable future.

3. Weber State’s Damian Lillard and Iona’s Scott Machado may end up being the top two playmaker guards in the NBA draft. Yet, neither one will be in the NCAA tournament after Lillard’s Wildcats were knocked out by host Montana in the Big Sky tournament title game. Machado lost to Fairfield in the MAAC tournament. The NCAAs will have plenty of stars, but not having Lillard and Machado on this stage is a shame for those that hadn’t seen either play this season.

Kareem Jamar scored 23 points and Montana beat Weber State 85-66 on Wednesday night to win the Big Sky Conference tournament and the league's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

Even if you don’t win the Wooden Award, it’s still pretty cool to get invited to the ceremony. A trip to Los Angeles, recognition on national television, face time with some of college basketball’s current and all-time greats ... the memories are the kind that last forever. So while Kansas’ Thomas Robinson and Kentucky’s Anthony Davis appear to have an insurmountable lead on the rest of the field, those third, fourth and fifth spots are important, too -- and the battle for them is fierce and ever-changing. Here’s how my ballot would look if the season ended today.

1. Anthony Davis, Kentucky - The freshman forward and likely No. 1 pick in this summer’s NBA draft continues to dominate on both ends of the floor. He’s averaging 15.5 points and 5.5 blocks in his past two games. He’ll face his toughest test of the SEC season in Starkville on Tuesday against Mississippi State’s Arnett Moultrie and Renardo Sidney.
2. Thomas Robinson, Kansas - The 6-foot-9 junior had his lowest scoring output in six weeks when he finished with just 10 points in Monday’s victory at Kansas State. Two days earlier, though, he had 24 points and 14 boards in a home win against Oklahoma State. He ranks second in the nation with 12 rebounds per game.
3. Draymond Green, Michigan State - There aren’t many 6-foot-7, 230-pounders in college basketball as versatile as Green. Along with 15 points and 10.5 rebounds, Green dishes out 3.5 assists per game while also contributing 1.4 steals and a block. Last week he led the Spartans to a victory over then-No. 3 Ohio State in Columbus.
4. Tyler Zeller, North Carolina - Zeller’s missed free throw and last-second defensive lapse in last week’s loss to Duke overshadowed what has been a banner season for the 7-foot center. The potential ACC Player of the Year is averaging 23.3 points in his last three games. In league play he’s averaging 19 points and 10.8 rebounds.
5. Kevin Jones, West Virginia - If Jones were on a top-10 team, he may be the leading candidate for this award. Instead, he’s averaging 20.6 points and 11.2 rebounds for a Mountaineers squad that’s in danger of missing the NCAA tournament after losing five of its last six games. West Virginia’s next two contests (against Pittsburgh and Notre Dame) are on the road. Jones needs to get his team over the hump.

On the cusp

Isaiah Canaan, Murray State - Last week’s loss to Tennessee State was the Racers’ first of the season, but it certainly wasn’t Canaan’s fault. He’s averaging 27 points in his last two games.

Marcus Denmon, Missouri - One of America’s best players in the clutch is averaging 23.3 points in his last three games. He’s made 14 of his 26 attempts from 3-point range during that span.

John Henson, North Carolina - The Tar Heels’ junior shot-swatter has posted four straight double-doubles. Along with 3.2 blocks, Henson is averaging 14 points and 10.3 rebounds per contest.

Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette - The senior is making a serious push for Big East Player of the Year honors. He’s averaging 18.4 points and has led Marquette to wins in 10 of its last 11 games.

Kris Joseph, Syracuse - The senior came up huge with a 29-point effort in last week’s 64-61 win over Georgetown. He averages a team-high 14 points for the nation’s second-ranked team.

Damian Lillard, Weber State - The junior guard continues to lead the nation in scoring with 25.1 points a game. He also contributes 5.3 rebounds.

Doug McDermott, Creighton - With just one 20-point effort in his last four games, the sophomore’s production has dipped a bit. But he’s still averaging 22.7 points and 8.1 rebounds.

Mike Moser, UNLV - The UCLA transfer is the main reason the Runnin’ Rebels have been a staple in the Top 25 all season. He’s averaging 15 points, 11.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists.

Jared Sullinger, Ohio State - The preseason All-American had 10 turnovers in Saturday’s loss to Draymond Green and Michigan State. He bounced back with 23 points in Tuesday’s win at Minnesota.

Cody Zeller, Indiana - Tyler Zeller’s younger brother has hardly played like a freshman. The 6-foot-11 forward leads Indiana with 15.4 points and 6.4 rebounds.

With one month remaining in the regular season, the battle for the Wooden Award appears to be a two-man race between Kentucky’s Anthony Davis and Kansas’ Thomas Robinson. Right now I’m leaning toward Davis, the projected No. 1 pick in this summer’s NBA draft. But you could definitely make an argument for Robinson, too. There are still plenty of opportunities for each to impress -- or regress. Here’s how I’d vote if the season ended today.

1. Anthony Davis, Kentucky - The 6-foot-10 Davis averaged 19 points, 7 rebounds and 6 blocks in the Wildcats’ most recent victories over South Carolina and Florida. He shot a collective 17-of-23 from the field in those two games. Davis’ presence alone affects the game on the defensive end.
2. Thomas Robinson, Kansas - Robinson had 20 points and 17 rebounds in a victory over Oklahoma before erupting for 25 and 13 in Saturday’s 74-71 loss at Missouri. When he’s playing his best, Robinson might be the toughest player in the country to stop in the paint. He’ll be tested Wednesday by Baylor’s Quincy Acy and Perry Jones III.
3. Kevin Jones, West Virginia - The senior forward continues to post gaudy stats - he’s scored 20 or more points in nine consecutive games - but his team is struggling. The Mountaineers have lost three of their past four contests, with the only victory coming in overtime against Big East bottom-feeder Providence. Impossible as it might seem, West Virginia may need Jones to do even more.
4. Jared Sullinger, Ohio State - The versatile Buckeyes forward averaged 21 points and 8 rebounds in victories over Wisconsin and Purdue. College basketball fans - and Wooden Award voters - have grown used to seeing Sullinger post impressive stat lines. It’d be a shame if they started taking him for granted.
5. Doug McDermott, Creighton - The Bluejays sophomore has averaged 21.3 points and 8.3 rebounds in the three games since the last Wooden Award ballot was released. Creighton, though, lost back-to-back contests at Northern Iowa and Evansville during that span. The setbacks certainly aren’t McDermott’s fault — but it’s definitely on him to make sure they don’t become a trend. Saturday’s home game against Wichita State is huge.

On the cusp:

Isaiah Canaan, Murray State - The leader of the nation’s only undefeated team had 32 points in last week’s victory over Southeast Missouri State. Canaan averages 18.9 points and shoots 47.1 percent from the field.

Draymond Green, Michigan State - Playing on basically one leg, the senior forward matched Michigan on the boards all by himself Sunday. Green had 16 boards while the Wolverines snared a collective 16.

John Henson, North Carolina - The junior had 17 points and 12 boards in Saturday’s victory over Maryland. Henson is averaging a double-double (14.3 points, 10 rebounds) on the season.

Perry Jones III, Baylor - Jones has scored 15 or more points in each of his past four games, but he’ll need to be more assertive than ever if the Bears have any hope of defeating Kansas in Waco, Texas, on Wednesday.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky - The freshman had 13 points and 13 rebounds in Tuesday’s win against No. 7 Florida. He’s one of the main reasons Kentucky is regarded as the nation’s best team.

Damian Lillard, Weber State - The guard had 40 points in Thursday’s win over Portland and 35 in a victory over Northern Colorado two days later. Lillard leads the nation with 25.5 points per game.

Scott Machado, Iona - The nation’s assists leader dropped 23 dimes and combined for 32 points in victories over Manhattan and Canisius. Machado leads the country with an average of 10 assists per game.

Arnett Moultrie, Mississippi State - Moultrie’s presence - he averages 17 points and 11.1 boards - has taken some pressure off of highly scrutinized forward Renardo Sidney. As a result, both players have flourished.

Mike Scott, Virginia - The senior forward scored 16 points in Saturday’s 58-55 road loss at Florida State. He’s shooting an impressive 58.8 percent from the field on the season. Scott could burst onto the national scene with an impressive performance at North Carolina on Saturday.

Tyler Zeller, North Carolina - Most people are obsessed with Zeller’s younger brother, Cody, a standout freshman for Indiana. Tyler, though, has been equally impressive. He averaged 20 points and 12.5 rebounds last week.

1. A Big 12 source with direct knowledge of the expansion board said that the league continues to be told that West Virginia will be in the league in 2012-13, but doesn’t have official word yet. The football schedule isn’t done yet, but the plans are for West Virginia to be in the league, instead of schools searching for a non-conference replacement. Regardless, the Big 12 needs a decision sooner than later on West Virginia’s status. The Big 12 has two schedules working right now, one with West Virginia and one without — and it will be a scheduling nightmare if the Mountaineers are legally blocked from joining the conference.

2. Three players had a tremendous night Thursday on three teams that you might not want in your region on your bracket. Momo Jones scored 43 for Iona in a victory over Canisius. Damian Lillard put up 40 in a win for Weber State over Portland State. Isaiah Canaan scored 32 (24 in the second half) for Murray State in a win over Southeast Missouri State. Lillard and Canaan have been consistently good all season. Iona coach Tim Cluess said last week he was looking for consistency from Jones. He might have found it Thursday.

3. John Shurna scored 28 points for Northwestern in a win over Nebraska. But unless the Wildcats can get on a monster run at 3-6 in the Big Ten or win the conference tournament, Shurna will be yet another Northwestern player who had a stellar career that didn’t include an NCAA tournament berth. There have been a number of these players in the history of the program, all likely thinking they were going to be the one to lead the Wildcats to that first-ever NCAA trip.

Every week, your humble college basketball hoops blogger (er, me) will respond to your questions, comments and nonsensical rants in this here Hoopsbag. To submit a query, visit this page by clicking the link under my name in the upper right-hand corner of the blog. You can also email me or send me your entries via Twitter. (Honestly, the best way to get me is Twitter.)

Thanks to a recent move, my video capabilities are still in a box in my new apartment somewhere. The video portion of the 'Bag will resume next week.

John in Champaign, Ill., writes: I'm an Illinois homer, and I'm happy we got a big résumé over a really good team ... but I can't be proud of that win. I'm asking seriously: Was this the ugliest game you've ever seen?

Eamonn Brennan: On Tuesday night, Illinois beat Michigan State, 42-41, in one of the ugliest games these eyes have ever seen. The Spartans' effective field goal percentage: 26.7. Illinois'? A robust 35.9. MSU turned the ball over on 28.6 percent of its possessions; at 21.4 percent, Illinois wasn't much better. Michigan State scored .73 points per trip; Illinois scored .75. At least two emailers asked the question: Was this the ugliest game of all time? The answer: no. I'll take last year's national championship game, particularly Butler's performance, as the ugliest game I've ever witnessed -- not only because it was incredibly ugly in and of itself, but also because it came on the sport's highest stage. But superlatives aside, I think we can all agree that last night's game was horrendous.

In fact, this game was so bad, that when I auto-tweeted last night's highlights post -- titled "Highlights: Illinois 42, Michigan State 41" -- a miniature Twitter roast ensued. Some of the best comments:

@sahadevsharna: assuming link leads to video of cartoon monkey playing organ grinder

@hickeybuns33: Surprised this video isn't 5 seconds long #slopfest

@johnschlenner: #OxymoronicTweets

@BK_BK_BK: just got back from the bar, where is the second half update? ... oh

@JPCIV: Highlights? None. #itsnotthe30sguys

@tuffyr: 42-41? "Highlights" seems optimistic.

And my personal favorite:

@Patrick16121: page not found

So, yeah. Ugly game, but hey, the Big Ten will do that sometimes. At the end of the day, Illinois recorded a win, and as far as the Big Ten standings and the NCAA tournament selection committee are concerned, the outcome is a thousand times more important than the process. But man, the process was bad, wasn't it?

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@Chris_Mackinder writes: If MSU Draymond Green is done for the year, how do you think the committee will view MSU in terms of seeding?

Brennan: And then there's this. First of all, let's hope Draymond isn't out for the season. It appears he's going to be OK, so good news there. (There is no rooting interest here, but it would have been a shame for Green to lose the rest of his final season as a Spartan -- on a team that could very well go to a Final Four -- thanks to injury.) But to answer the question generally: It depends on how well Michigan State would have played the rest of the season without Green. If it showed few noticeable signs of decline, the committee would have to seed it the same way it would have had Green been in the lineup. But if Michigan State fell apart in the final few weeks with Green on the sideline, the committee would have to take into account the fact that the team it would be seeding in March would not be the same one that won all those games in November, December and January. Much like Purdue after Robbie Hummel's late-season injury in 2010, the Spartans' seed would be affected accordingly.

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Dustin in D.C. writes: Hey Eamonn. We all know that when a team has a star player or solid glue guy get injured for a chunk of the year, the committee takes that into consideration when seeding and determining the teams in the tournament. But what about when a player is out because of different issues -- like academic or legal issues? For example, Fab Melo has been out of Syracuse's lineup for the past few games, and the team has look pretty unimpressive, although they have gone 2-1. If and Kentucky were to end the season in similar fashion, would the committee view Melo's absence in the same light as they would if he was injured? Would they say: "Oh, well with Melo, Syracuse is an undefeated team, while Kentucky can't really claim that same thing" or will they view his absence as something that was avoidable and therefore not view it in the same light? Verbose, but hopefully I got my question across here. This has always been something I've wondered about.

Brennan: At the end of the day, my guess -- or maybe my hope -- is that the committee treats each of these omission situations the same way whether it's an injury, an academic suspension, a legal issue, whatever.

Of course, each situation is different. For example, it would have been interesting to see (and perhaps it still will be) how the committee will view Xavier's bad home loss to Oral Roberts just days after the Dec. 10 brawl with Cincinnati. Xavier was playing without Mark Lyons, Tu Holloway and Dez Wells, but they were doing so for (incredibly regrettable) reasons of their own making. How does the committee view that loss? I'm not sure, exactly. But at the end of the day, the best the committee can do is to look at each team's situation relative to its performance and gauge it accordingly. If Melo isn't available by March, the committee will have to look at the team Syracuse is then, not the team it was with Melo. Of course, you don't just toss half the season out the window. It's a balance. But the calculus shouldn't change much.

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JP in Stockton, Calif., writes: Why does the Pac-12 get their own weekly breakdown feature, and not more deserving conferences like the Mountain West, A-10, WCC, etc? It's absurd that having football dictates basketball coverage.

Brennan: I don't disagree! At least not this year. Here's the thing, though: Most seasons, the Pac-12 isn't anywhere near this bad. It's been bad lately, of course, but not nearly as bad as this. This is an outlier. And even so, there is still large fan support for many of these teams, which are all large, major universities with massive athletics budgets and resources most mid-majors can't touch. The league will be back in years to come.

Really, though, the power-conference power rankings aren't a matter of ranking leagues. There's no superiority or inferiority stated or implied. It's just ... kind of the way it is. If we ranked every league but the Pac-12, everyone would accuse us of East Coast bias, or something similar, and the complaints would hail down from all sides. Hopefully, we give you enough good A-10, MWC, WCC and MVC coverage throughout the week to balance it out. Either way, I empathize. Believe that. (As the guy charged with actually ranking that mess of a league every week, boy, do I ever empathize.)

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@JamesGurland writes: Will the Seton Hall Pirates ever win a game? And if so, will they dance?

Brennan: The wheels appear to be coming off the Seton Hall bandwagon. It was a great story early in the year, and it'd be nice to see the Pirates -- with Herb Pope and Jordan Theodore, two guys with great and almost even inspiring stories -- get to the tournament in 2012. But it's not looking good. Seton Hall's nonconference schedule was very weak, and it lost the only game it played against even decent nonconference competition (Northwestern). The wins over West Virginia and Connecticut are nice, but with UConn struggling like it is, they don't look nearly as good as they once did. What's worse, the Pirates have now lost five in a row, with two more games on the road coming up; there's a legitimate possibility this team will lose seven in a row. If it does so, it will have to recover down the stretch in Big East play to keep their tournament bid alive.

In short: If Seton Hall was a stock, it'd be plummeting.

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@kerrancejames writes: How in the world does Colorado State have the No. 3-ranked strength of schedule? The 5th-best team they've played is either Denver or Stanford.

Brennan: As yours truly plunged into the first edition of the Bubble Watch this week, I quickly realized that Colorado State might be the biggest RPI outlier in the system. No. 17? Really? It's strange.

Don't get me wrong: The Rams played a solid nonconference schedule. But it wasn't a Long Beach State-level buzzsaw. My guess: The Rams' SOS is helped in huge ways by its game at Duke, and Southern Miss -- which CSU played at home -- has a better-than-you'd-think RPI of 11, which certainly doesn't hurt. Plus, games at Stanford and Northern Iowa are solid road tests. But really, Colorado State's strength of schedule may have as much to do with what it doesn't have as what it does. Namely, lots of cupcake wins. The Rams played (and won) just seven games against foes ranked in below the RPI top 150 threshold, and the decent-to-great RPIs their conference foes (Air Force is the only Mountain West team ranked below the top 150, and the Rams play them twice down the stretch) have helped keep quote-unquote "bad" wins from weighing down an otherwise decent if unspectacular nonconference performance.

Every year, we get three or four good anecdotal reasons to hate the RPI. Or, rather, to hate its continued overuse by the NCAA. This, it would appear, is one of them.

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Eduardo in Indianapolis writes: Read your blog entry on Damian Lillard, definitely enjoyed it. If for some reason he falls to a second-round draft prospect, do you think he'd consider the graduate transfer route, to a bigger program? He's a redshirt junior, so if he graduates this year, it's a possibility. What do you think?

Brennan: I don't know, and neither does Lillard, probably, but I'd be surprised if he fell out of the first round in this year's NBA draft. The class is hardly stocked with guard prospects, and teams that need a scoring point guard type will look to Lillard before nearly every other prospect on the board. Given that, it will be difficult for him to fall too far. Besides, he's having an amazing season. Concerns over his level of competition are already being brushed aside, and they should subside even further if/when Lillard plays well in pre-draft workouts the minute I'm not sure a transfer to a large, unfamiliar program -- where his talents could get lost in the fray -- would put Lillard in any better position that he is in right now. Maybe? But I tend to doubt it.

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@T_Dwyer writes: What does Iowa State have to do the rest of the way to be a tourney team?

Brennan: In the immortal words of that one fish from "Finding Nemo," the Cyclones merely need to just keep swimming. Right now, given the soft bubble and the large number of bids that will likely be available to teams from demonstrably good power-six conferences -- the Big 12, Big Ten, Big East and SEC come specifically to mind -- Iowa State is in excellent position going forward.

But that doesn't mean that position is unimpeachable. The Cyclones still have to play Baylor twice, once in Waco. They still have Missouri on the road. In the next week, they'll play at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in consecutive games; it'd be good to at least split those contests. If so, Iowa State would be 17-7 and 7-4 in conference facing the following conference stretch run: Texas A&M, @Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, @Kansas State, @Missouri, Baylor. Let's be less than generous and say Iowa State beats A&M, Oklahoma and Texas Tech and loses to the three away games and the final home game to Baylor. That would make them 20-11 overall, 10-8 in the Big 12, with wins over Kansas and Kansas State, a presumably good RPI, and no losses outside the RPI top 100 to speak of. That's a solid NCAA tournament resume, in my opinion, but as you can see, it's not all that far away from the bubble.

Of course, anything can happen. Iowa State could lose both upcoming road games; A&M is playing better; Oklahoma is a decent road team; things could get ugly at Missouri or Baylor, and so on and so forth. There are plenty of possibilities here. But this team is good. Royce White is a beast. The Cyclones will make the tournament provided they don't suffer a drastic collapse, and with White playing the way he is, that possibility seems far less likely than any of the other, more middle-of-the-road scenarios.

I don't know where Hilton Magic fits into all this, but Iowa State doesn't need magic now. Mere solidity should do the trick.

Back in December, Basketball Prospectus and ESPN Insider scribe John Gasaway -- who made a guest appearance on our podcast this week, which I will now shamelessly plug -- noticed a rather remarkable trend: In 2011-12, some of the top scorers in the country on a sheer points per game average were also among the nation's leaders in offensive efficiency. As John wrote at the time, this is not how things are supposed to work:

Are Division I coaches more savvy than they used to be, or is it just a coincidence so many of the nation’s top scorers are actually highly efficient performers? Back in the day, scoring tons of points often required two things: a high proportion of missed shots, and a mistakenly permissive coach. (Draw up a chair, young people. When I started writing about college basketball, many in the media thought that because he scored a lot of points Bracey Wright was good at basketball. I’m serious.) But early in the 2011-12 season the guys atop the NCAA’s scoring leader board are unquestionably players who make their offenses better -- much better, in fact.

Oh, Bracey Wright. Halcyon days indeed.

Anyway, a month later, this trend still stands -- and remarkably so. Creighton's Doug McDermott, the nation's second-leading scorer (23.5 ppg) also possesses the nation's second-highest offensive rating (123.4) among players using more than 28 percent of their team's possessions. For a player to shoot and score as often as McDermott does, while also maintaining sterling efficiency numbers? That's crazy, right? (Right.)

And yet, somehow, McDermott isn't the paragon of this virtue. That would be Weber State's Damian Lillard. What Lillard is doing deserves special, even constant, consideration. The Wildcats guard leads the nation in points per game with 24.8. He also just so happens to lead the nation (among players in the plus-28 percent usage category) in offensive rating, where he is seven points ahead of McDermott at 130.7. It's hard to describe how amazing this is. It almost never happens. Usually, when you score a lot of points, you take a lot of shots, and a good portion of those shots fail to fall through the hoop. Not with Lillard. He's averaging 24.8 points per game because he shoots at a 46 percent clip from the field, a 45 percent clip from 3, and a 91 percent clip from the free throw line, where he finds himself nearly eight times per game. And the scoring is just the half of it: Lillard also leads his team in rebounds (5.8 per game), assists (3.7) and steals (1.3). If he played for a power conference team, he'd be the runaway favorite for national player of the year. There's a chicken-egg argument there, of course; maybe if Lillard played for a power-six school he wouldn't be playing the same level of competition, the numbers wouldn't be as good, etc. But however you want to slice it, the dude is having an insane college basketball season. Frankly, he's nearly been perfect.

Given all this, perhaps it's no surprise Lillard is garnering the attention of NBA scouts. But it is surprising -- and encouraging -- to hear that other NBA types have made his games appointment viewing, too. That was the case Thursday night, when the Lillard-led Weber State Wildcats scored another road win at Sacramento State. From the Sacramento Bee:

Representatives from at least nine NBA teams, including Kings president Geoff Petrie, came out to scout Lillard. Kings players DeMarcus Cousins and Jason Thompson, along with Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stevie Johnson -- a Fairfield native -- also were at the game.

Lillard, an Oakland High School graduate, said the attention does not faze him.

"I'm more comfortable with it now," he said. "It never bothered me, but I'm more used to it now because I know they're there. It doesn't bother me because I know what I need to do for my team."

Boogie Cousins in the building? If that's not an affirmation of your ability, Damian, I don't know what is.

In any case, the NBA clearly likes what it sees. According to ESPN Insider Chad Ford, Lillard is currently slotted as a potential mid-first-round pick in a loaded 2012 draft, albeit one that lacks "top-flight point guards," to use the scouting terminology. In his most recent analysis, Ford says Lillard has probably benefitted from the early success of former Cleveland State star Norris Cole, who fell to the Miami Heat thanks to concerns about his size and the lack of elite competition he faced in his career with the Vikings.

The NBA doesn't like to make the same mistake twice, apparently, and with Lillard, it shouldn't: If you don't want to draft a player that can do this much for your team -- or even, at the very least, put up these kinds of scoring numbers while maintaining such a high rate of efficiency -- you should immediately relinquish your position as an NBA general manager. Because you're bad at your job. And Lillard is going to be very good at his.

McDermott fever taking over Omaha

Doug McDermott scored a career-high 44 points in Creighton’s 92-83 win against Bradley on Saturday. It’s the sixth-most points in a game in school history, and the most since Benoit Benjamin’s 45 in January 1985. It passed IUPUI’s Alex Young and his 43-point effort against Western Kentucky for the most points in a game this season. He’s one of only four players to top 40 points this season.

McDermott, who had 31 in the second half alone, went 18-for-23 from the field. That 78.3 field goal percentage is the highest for a player who attempted at least 20 shots since Reggie Williams (86.4) for VMI in January 2008.

Lillard leads the nation
Overshadowed by McDermott’s big game, the nation’s leading scorer also exploded on Saturday. Damian Lillard scored 38 points in Weber State’s 88-81 win against Portland State. He also added five rebounds and five assists. He’s the first player to reach all three of those totals in a game since Norris Cole’s epic 41-20-9 game last February. Lillard leads the nation at 26.3 PPG, and has topped 30 points on five occasions.

Royce White’s Triple-Double
Royce White recorded the fourth triple-double in Iowa State history in Saturday’s 74-50 win against Texas A&M. He joins Curtis Stinson (2006), Jamaal Tinsley (2000) and Marc Urquhart (1989). White finished with 10 points, 10 assists and 18 rebounds.

Since the Big 12 was formed in 1996-97, there have been five triple-doubles in conference play. Three of those were by Cyclones. The 18 rebounds are the most in a triple-double since Cole Aldrich had 20 in the 2009 NCAA Tournament.

A Chris Dudley comparison
There’s no better compliment for a Yale big man than to be compared to Chris Dudley (unless it’s regarding free throws). On Sunday, Greg Mangano had the most rebounds by a Yale player since Dudley in 1987. Mangano finished with 35 points and 22 rebounds in a 101-86 win against St. Joseph’s of Long Island. He joins Jeronne Maymon and Thomas Robinson as the only D-I players with a 30-20 game this season.

Four OT classic in Corvallis
Stanford needed four overtimes to beat Oregon State, 103-101, on Saturday. It marked the longest game in both schools' histories. Oregon State had its highest scoring total in a conference game since 1994. The teams combined for 171 field goal attempts and 108 rebounds during three hours and eight minutes. Chasson Randle’s bucket with 37 seconds left in overtime proved pivotal. He led all scorers with 24 points despite having only two at halftime.

For the second time this season, USC was held to 40 points or fewer.
Two weeks after scoring 36 points in a loss to Cal Poly, the Trojans fell to Minnesota 55-40. At 55.1 ppg, USC is on track for its lowest scoring season since averaging 52.8 in 1948-49. That’s also the last season in which the Trojans were twice held to 40 points or fewer.

Wildcats can’t score in first loss
Both Northwestern and Baylor entered Sunday’s contest undefeated, but you wouldn’t know it from the result. Baylor won 69-41, holding Northwestern to 24.1 percent from the field. It was the worst shooting performance by the Wildcats in nearly 10 years. The 41 points are the fewest Northwestern has scored in its home court since a 40-39 win over North Florida in 2006. Meanwhile, Baylor was 25-for-30 from two-point range, an 83.3 two-point field goal percentage that is their highest over the past 15 years.

Freshmen shine off the bench
A pair of freshmen starred off the bench on Saturday in Connecticut’s 75-62 win over Arkansas. Playing in just his second game, Ryan Boatright led the Huskies with 23 points, adding five rebounds and six assists. He’s the first UConn freshman with a 20-5-5 game off the bench since Kemba Walker against Missouri in the 2009 Elite Eight. Meanwhile, B.J. Young led all scorers with a career-high 28 points in the losing effort. It was the third most points by a freshman off the bench this season. The rest of the Razorbacks combined to shoot 24.6 percent from the field.

16 points and no field goals
Despite not connecting on a field goal, Durand Scott was Miami's top scorer in Saturday's 83-75 win over Massachusetts. Scott missed all six of his field goal attempts, and his 16 points came courtesy of a 16-for-18 performance at the line. It's the most points scored by a Division I player without a field goal since Binghamton's Sebastian Hermenier's 17 against Vermont in 2006. Scott's total is the most by a major conference player without a field goal since Indiana's Michael Lewis also scored 16 against Minnesota in 1998.

Top scoring performance of season
Weber State's Damian Lillard had the nation's top scoring game of the season, finishing with 41 points in a 91-89 double-overtime win over San Jose State. Lillard only had 24 points at the end of regulation, but scored 17 of the Wildcats' 24 points in the two overtimes. The 41 points are the second most in school history behind Stan Mayhew's 45 points in 1977. He's the first Division I player to crack the 40-point mark since Harrison Barnes in the 2011 ACC tournament. Lillard is the top scorer in the nation, averaging 28.2 ppg.

He made a career out of tilting at windmills and slaying dragons, the ultimate underdog in a game in which bigger and stronger is supposed to equate to better.

He was craftier, that’s always been the argument. Pete Carril was able to conjure up an offensive scheme that put his Princeton teams on equal footing with their more talented foes.

Actually, above all else, Carril is practical.

Three, he knows, is worth more than two.

“Sometimes we had centers and forwards smaller than our guards, so who were you going to post up?” Carril said. “So what we had, we had 3-point shooters and we made a lot of 3s. They add up.’’

There is, it turns out, genius in simple math.

The 3-point shot, celebrating its 25th anniversary this season, has revolutionized the game. Post play is no longer as crowded as a New York City subway at rush hour, defenses are stretched across the floor and the little man is more than just a dribbler.

Perhaps less noticeable to the naked eye, the 3 also has given rise to the mid-major. Parity has hit the college game for plenty of reasons -- the one-and-done rule leaves top teams without valuable experience and leadership; television has exposed recruits to more and more teams; name-branding from the NCAA tournament -- but it would be foolish to overlook the impact of the 3.

“It isn’t an equalizer in the game,’’ Virginia Commonwealth coach Shaka Smart said. “It is the equalizer.’’

Smart should know. His Rams toed the arc all the way to Houston and the Final Four last season, connecting on 61 of 143 (42.7 percent) of their 3s compared to just 31-of-113 (27.4) by their opponents.

In perhaps their most difficult step, the Elite Eight game against Kansas, VCU knocked down 12-of-25 from long distance to just 2-of-21 for the Jayhawks.

But VCU is hardly the first team to expose its heftier opponents by draining 3s. In some of the most memorable upsets and Cinderella runs in college basketball, there is one common denominator -- 3-point shooting.

• 3-Point Anniversary

  This season marks the 25th anniversary of the 3-point line in college basketball. Once derided, it is now an integral part of the game. 3-point home page »

  • O'Neil: The 3-pointer turns 25 » • O'Neil: The great equalizer » • Brennan: Top 3-point shots » • King: Steve Kerr spans two eras » • Leung: Kevin Foster defends his title »

  1991 Richmond vs. Syracuse: The Spiders knocked down 5-of-17 from the arc to 5-of-21 by the Orange.
• 1996 Princeton vs. UCLA: The Tigers were 8-of-27, the Bruins 5-of-18.
• 1999 Weber State vs. North Carolina: The Wildcats were 14-of-26, the Tar Heels 9-of-21.
• 2005 Bucknell vs. Kansas: The Bison were 8-of-31, the Jayhawks 1-of-11.
• 2010 Northern Iowa vs. Kansas: The Panthers were 9-of-26, the Jayhawks 6-of-23.
• 2010 Butler Final Four run: The Bulldogs sunk 42 3s to 22 by their opponents.
• 2011 Butler Final Four run: The Bulldogs sunk 44 3s to 34 by their opponents.

“When you are truly undersized and undermanned, it changes everything,’’ Butler coach Brad Stevens said. “It doesn’t have to be someone in particular who can shoot it, but you have to some reliability. One of the reasons we went to the national championship game is because Matt Howard hit five 3s his first year and 53 as a senior. We don’t go if we can’t stretch the floor with him.’’

Chris Mack found out just how hard it is to win without a 3-point shooter. A year ago, Brad Redford tore his ACL before the season, sidelining the 42 percent shooter for Xavier. Mack's Musketeers went on to a more than respectable 24-8 record but were bounced short of their fourth consecutive Sweet 16 by Marquette.

The double dip of extra attention paid to Tu Holloway and Xavier’s 2-of-13 shooting from the 3-point line doomed the Musketeers in that game.

“Having Brad back does two things for us,’’ Mack said. “It makes our other players better because the floor is so much more spread out. It makes our penetrators better because they have less help-side [defense] to navigate through, but it almost becomes a 4-on-4 game because you can’t leave him. We’re a much more dangerous team because he’s as automatic as they come.’’

The challenge for mid-majors, or any coach for that matter, is finding guys who can hit a 3. As teams continue to go away from the traditional power forward, relying more and more on guys who are more versatile at the 4 position, recruits who can hit a 3 are at a premium.

Consequently coaches who might be second in line in the pecking order are forced to develop good shooters if they can’t recruit them.

Which begs a chicken-or-egg question: Are great 3-pointer shooters born or can they be created?

The answer is both. Right now Stevens has one of the best 3-point shooters in the game sitting on the bench -- Arkansas transfer Rotnei Clarke. In three years, Clarke has drained 274 3s.

But over the course of time Stevens also has turned guys into 3-point shooters.

Along with Howard, Stevens helped coax Willie Veasley into a 3-point shooter. In his freshman and sophomore seasons, Veasley didn’t even attempt a 3-point shot. By his senior season, he drained 45.

There’s no trick involved, just commitment from a player and dedication from a coach.

“When you see a guy consistently make a shot from 18 feet and you move him back to 20, if he struggles from there people tend to say, ‘Well, that’s not your range,'’’ Carril said. “I never listened to that. There’s not much difference between 18 and 20 feet.’’

No, but there’s a world of difference for a mid-major team that can hit a 3-pointer.

Before we get to the Blue Ribbon team-by-team previews for the Big Sky, here is Diamond Leung's one-minute wind sprint through the league:



Blue Ribbon breakdowns of all nine teams in the Big Sky:

Eastern Washington
Idaho State
Montana
Montana State
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
Portland State
Sacramento State
Weber State

More Big Sky content:

-- New Faces, New Places: In a dozen seasons at the Division III level, Jim Hayford never had a losing season. Diamond Leung examines whether the new Eastern Washington coach can continue his winning ways.
-- Joel Francisco gives the lowdown on the recruiting picture in the Big Sky.
-- Find out how Weber State star Damian Lillard spent his 21st birthday.