ESPN College Football

September is in the rearview mirror, and the race for some of the Big Ten's top awards are wide smoking open. As they should be, with the heart of league play still ahead of us. Here's how we see those awards right now:

Graham–George Offensive Player of the Year

1. Iowa RB Mark Weisman (Last week: 3): The offensive player of the year trophy is totally up for grabs right now, but why not Weisman? He's second in the Big Ten in rushing (615 yards), leads the free world in carries (119) and has helped the Hawkeyes establish a definite identity.

2. Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon (LW: 1): Ohio State became the first team this year to slow down Gordon, holding him to 74 yards on 15 carries. Gordon also hurt his left knee in that game. But he still leads the country in rushing.

3. Illinois QB Nathan Scheelhaase (LW: 5): Five more TD passes last week against Miami (Ohio) gives Scheelhaase 12 in four games. He also leads the Big Ten in passing yards and pass efficiency. The true test of his candidacy will come in Big Ten play, starting this week at Nebraska.

4. Ohio State QB Braxton Miller (LW: Not ranked): What, did you forget about the reigning winner of this award? Miller basically missed three games but came roaring back last week with four touchdowns against Wisconsin. His time off and Kenny Guiton's success in his absence no doubt hurts, but if Miller can put up huge numbers in the Buckeyes' conference schedule, he'll have to be reckoned with.

5. Wisconsin WR Jared Abbrederis (LW: NR): Abbrederis was insanely good in the loss at Ohio State with 207 receiving yards, dominating All-America corner Bradley Roby. He has surpassed Penn State's Allen Robinson as the Big Ten leader in receiving yards and catches per game.

Dropped out: Robinson, Ohio State QB Kenny Guiton

Nagurski–Woodson Defensive Player of the Year

1. Wisconsin LB Chris Borland (LW: 1): Even in a losing effort, Borland cemented his case for this award with his performance against Ohio State. He was everywhere and had two ridiculous short-yardage stops against Carlos Hyde on his way to 16 tackles.

2. Ohio State LB Ryan Shazier (LW: NR): We figured Shazier would turn it on in conference play, and he definitely did last week. He was a major key to putting the brakes on Wisconsin's running game with nine tackles, 2.5 for loss and a forced fumble.

3. Iowa LB James Morris (LW: NR): The Big Ten defensive player of the week for his effort at Minnesota, Morris is leading a talented Hawkeyes linebacker group and captains a much-improved defense that is stuffing opponents' run games.

4. Michigan State DE Shilique Calhoun (LW: 3): The early turnover scores were nice. Now it's about whether he can make an impact in the conference race.

5. Penn State DT DaQuan Jones (LW: 5): Like Calhoun, Jones was off last week. Time to see what he's got for October.

Dropped out: Minnesota DT Ra'Shede Hageman, Iowa CB B.J. Lowery

Dave McClain/Hayes–Schembechler Coach of the Year

1. Tim Beckman, Illinois: Yes, it's true. Were the coach of the year award handed out today, Beckman would win it. Illinois has already exceeded last year's win total with its 3-1 start and is the most improved team in the league.

2. Urban Meyer, Ohio State: These awards usually go to coaches who exceed expectations. Meyer hasn't done that. But when you've won 17 in a row, isn't that worthy of some recognition?

3. Kirk Ferentz, Iowa: Like Beckman, Ferentz has turned fan grumbling into early optimism with his 4-1 start. We'll see whether Iowa or Illinois can keep this going.

4. Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern: His Wildcats are 4-0 and weathered the loss of Venric Mark in September. Slightly big game coming up this week.

Our stalemate in the pick-off was broken this past week, as Adam surged ahead by one after correctly pegging the Iowa-Minnesota game in an otherwise short week.

WEEK 5/SEASON RECORD

Adam Rittenberg: 4-0, 44-6 (.880)
Brian Bennett: 3-1, 43-7 (.860)

Here's one last look at the Week 5 predictions from us and our guest picker, Phillip Mykleby from Minneapolis:

Rewind those predictions ...

Miami (Ohio) at Illinois

• Brian Bennett's pick: Illinois 38, Miami 10
• Adam Rittenberg's pick: Illinois 31, Miami 13
• Actual score: Illinois 50, Miami 14
• 20-20 hindsight: Excuse us for underestimating your offense, Illini. I said Nathan Scheelhaase would have a fun day, and he did by throwing five touchdown passes, all in the first half. But he came up 72 yards shy of my 350-yard forecast since he took an early seat. Adam called for Josh Ferguson to score twice; he was half right about that.

Northern Illinois at Purdue

• Bennett's pick: Northern Illinois 28, Purdue 20
• Rittenberg's pick: Northern Illinois 38, Purdue 27
• Actual score: Northern Illinois 55, Purdue 24
• 20-20 hindsight: We weren't far off on Purdue's point totals, but we gave the Boilers' defense far too much credit. Neither of us saw the Huskies tying the record for margin of victory by a MAC team over a Big Ten squad. Probably the less said about this game, the better.

Iowa at Minnesota

• Bennett's pick: Minnesota 23, Iowa 21
• Rittenberg's pick: Iowa 28, Minnesota 24
• Actual score: Iowa 23, Minnesota 7
• 20-20 hindsight: Kudos to Rittenberg for getting the Floyd winner right, and my apologies to Hawkeyes fans for totally underselling their team. Neither of us thought Minnesota would get so thoroughly dominated at the line of scrimmage by Iowa's defense. Adam was right that the lack of a passing game came back to bite the Gophers. My prediction of a big game by Mitch Leidner couldn't have been more wrong, as the Minnesota quarterback didn't even play.

Wisconsin at Ohio State

• Bennett's pick: Ohio State 34, Wisconsin 28
• Rittenberg's pick: Ohio State 37, Wisconsin 30
• Actual score: Ohio State 31, Wisconsin 24
• 20-20 hindsight: Easily our best score prediction of the week, as Adam nailed the margin, and I came closer on the actual score. When in doubt, pick Wisconsin to lose by seven points or less. I correctly pegged Ohio State to get off to a big early lead and then hold on, while my prediction of a Bradley Roby interception of Joel Stave was only partially correct as it didn't seal the win. Adam said Braxton Miller would account for three touchdowns, one shy of his actual total, while his forecast of a 180-yard day for Melvin Gordon was way off as Wisconsin didn't come close to reaching that rushing total as a team.

Now let's see how our guest picker, Phillip, performed:

Illinois 45, Miami (Ohio) 10
Northern Illinois 41, Purdue 28
Iowa 28, Minnesota 24
Ohio State 42, Wisconsin 24

Nice job, Phillip, as you went 4-0 and beat me this week. The Illinois and Northern Illinois score picks were better than ours, although you were off on Ohio State's margin of victory. (If the game ended after the third quarter, though, you would have almost had the margin right).

Who's going to be our guest picker this week? If you're interested, drop us a note here with a short explanation of why we should choose you to do battle in the Week 6 pick off.

The baseball postseason starts today. Who ya got? (Hint: birds on a bat).

• Adjusting on defense will be key for Ohio State's trip to Northwestern. Christian Bryant's father is encouraged by all the support for the injured Buckeyes safety. Urban Meyer won't ever apologize for going into win-the-game mode.
• Northwestern is relishing this week's big-game atmosphere at home. Teammates are confident that Venric Mark will play this week. Pat Fitzgerald answered a reporter's phone.
• Michigan's offensive line is still in flux as it gets ready for Minnesota. Brady Hoke wants to get a second running back some early work versus Minnesota. Jake Ryan could potentially return at Penn State.
• Silas Redd's decision to transfer to USC backfired. Indiana-Penn State is a big game for both sides. Bill Belton has left 2012 behind him.
• Here are five wins to remember from Kirk Ferentz's success against Michigan State. Defense should rule the day in Iowa City.
• Michigan State is mixing and matching on the offensive line. Jamal Lyles is starting to make a difference at tight end for the Spartans.
• Nebraska defensive end Greg McMullen, an Ohio native, is eager for Big Ten play. The Huskers are confident in their quarterback situation despite health questions around Taylor Martinez.
• Minnesota got a commitment from a 2014 linebacker. The Daily Gopher asks some uncomfortable questions about Jerry Kill's team.
• Indiana has a tough road ahead as Big Ten play opens for the Hoosiers. Kevin Wilson went back to the drawing board during the bye week (subscription required).
• High praise is coming Illinois offensive coordinator Bill Cubit's way. Tight ends have taken on a larger role in the Illini offense. Big Ten losing streak? What Big Ten losing streak?
• Wisconsin has almost no margin of error in its quest to repeat as Big Ten champs. Gary Andersen feels good about the health of his team during the bye week and said star running back Melvin Gordon would be ready to play next week. Andersen is trying to learn from last week's loss.
• The bye week did not start off well for Purdue, as two young receivers were arrested on suspicion of theft.

Week 5 featured the first full slate of conference games, and many matchups lived up to their pregame hype. Georgia outscored LSU in a back-and-forth game filled with big plays and superb quarterback play. Alabama found its defense and shut out Ole Miss at home. And Braxton Miller returned from injury to throw four touchdowns and lead Ohio State past Wisconsin.

With the help of ESPN’s new college football metrics (see explanations here), ESPN Stats & Information looks back on Week 5 and ahead to this weekend’s matchup between Northwestern and Ohio State.

First, we look at how a record-setting performance could look rather pedestrian through the lens of our metrics.

Sean Mannion threw for 414 yards and a school record six touchdowns in Oregon State's 44-17 win against Colorado. But he finished with a middle-of-the-road 48.8 Total QBR.

At first glance, Mannion’s stats are outstanding. But he completed 52 percent of his passes, threw an interception and took two sacks, including one sack-fumble. In addition, a lot of Mannion's production came in garbage time: 117 pass yards and three touchdowns when leading by at least 21 points. In sum, that led to a below-average 48.8 Total QBR.

Best Individual Performances
Stephen Morris (97.0 Total QBR) completed 11-of-16 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns before leaving with an ankle injury in Miami's win against South Florida. Morris’ 97.0 Total QBR was the highest by a Miami quarterback against an FBS opponent in the last 10 seasons.

Nathan Scheelhaase (93.7 Total QBR) threw for 278 yards and a career-high five pass touchdowns as Illinois beat Miami (OH). Scheelhaase completed 79 percent of his passes, including five of seven passes in the red zone that resulted in four touchdowns.

Taysom Hill (93.1 Total QBR) became the second player in the FBS to pass for 150 yards and rush for 150 yards in a game this season as BYU beat Middle Tennessee 37-10. Jordan Lynch of Northern Illinois is the other quarterback to accomplish the feat this season. Hill ran for 165 yards on 18 attempts, resulting in 5.2 expected points added on rushing plays. This season, Hill leads all FBS quarterbacks with 565 rush yards and has added almost twice as many expected points on running plays than any other quarterback.

Tyler Murphy (93.0 Total QBR) followed up his 98.1 Total QBR in his debut with a 93 QBR in Florida's win against Kentucky. Murphy completed all 11 of his passes in the first half and had a 98.9 Total QBR in the first 30 minutes of play. In 15 career starts, injured Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel has never had a single-game Total QBR of 93 or above or a perfect completion percentage in a half.

View the full list of Total QBR leaders for the season and Week 5.

Best Team Performances
Offense: East Carolina. The Pirates scored seven offensive touchdowns and averaged 4.2 points per drive in their 55-31 victory at North Carolina. They added 32.3 expected points on offense, which was the second-most offensive expected points added in a game against an AQ opponent this season (Oregon: +39.2 EPA against Tennessee on Sept. 14).

Defense: Alabama. The Tide’s defense added 24.4 expected points toward their 25-point victory. That means that if Alabama had an average defense, it would have basically been an equal matchup on Saturday. Ole Miss entered the game averaging 490 yards and 38 points per game, but the Rebels were held to 205 total yards and were shut out for the first time since 1998.

Special Teams: Georgia. Special teams is often overlooked, but it may have been the difference in Georgia’s win against LSU.

The graphic shows the expected points added by each of Georgia’s units to the team's net points in the game. Georgia’s offense and defense basically canceled each other out, but its special teams unit added four expected points, which may have been the difference in the game.

On special teams, Georgia recovered a muffed punt and made all three of its field goals, including a 55-yard field goal by Marshall Morgan in the third quarter.

Looking ahead to Week 6
Ohio State travels to No. 16 Northwestern looking to knock off its second-straight ranked opponent on Saturday. College GameDay will be at Northwestern for the first time since a 1995 showdown against Iowa.

For Northwestern to pull off the upset, the Wildcats must stop Ohio State’s balanced offense. The Buckeyes have passed for 1,070 yards and rushed for 1,436 yards in five games this season. They are one of two teams (Texas A&M) that has added at least 50 expected points on passing and rushing plays.

Ohio State will have its own challenge on defense as it tries to stop Northwestern’s dual-quarterback system. Northwestern quarterbacks Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian are off to hot starts, with each player posting a Total QBR above 70 this season. The only other team that has two quarterbacks with at least 75 action plays and a Total QBR of 70 or above is Ohio State.

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- The arsenal once again included a battering ram and that was the tool needed for the job.

Rather than wondering how else it might attack Wisconsin’s castle, Ohio State just kept hammering away with what was working instead of making sure every weapon got a little use.

That doesn’t mean the Buckeyes won’t need a few different approaches to breach the various defenses it faces for the rest of the season, but at least against the Badgers in a physical win on Saturday night, the situation called for some heavy lumber. And for all the positive work Jordan Hall has done early in the season, Carlos Hyde was clearly the guy No. 4 Ohio State favored to handle the job.

“Jordan Hall has got to be involved, but that was a decision we kind of made,” Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer said. “We thought and we knew it was going to be very hard to run in there the way they play their defensive line. They packed it in … and they are very good against the rush.

“But those are our top two backs, and we are working on that now. I want to make sure we get Jordan Hall involved.”

Based on the depth chart entering the game, Hall seemed to still be in line for plenty of involvement as the designated starter coming off a productive stretch outside of conference play.

But when the Big Ten slate opened, it was almost exactly like last year all over again as Hyde dominated the carries among the tailbacks. Rather than Hall being forced to the sideline with an injury like last season, though, he was instead limited to just one rush by coach’s choice as Hyde pounded his way to 85 yards on 17 attempts in his second game back from suspension.

Quarterback Braxton Miller still wound up shouldering more of the load than both of them. The junior carried 22 times through a combination of calling his own number on the option, designed draws and a few scrambles on passing plays that certainly had an effect on the number of touches available to the rest of the Buckeyes. And while one game is a small sample size and the plan is always subject to change on a weekly basis, giving Hyde the start against a stout Wisconsin defense and continuing to feed him the football consistently sent a strong message that he’s quickly regained his leading role in a crowded backfield.

“It wasn’t planned,” offensive coordinator Tom Herman said. “I think the plan was to increase the role for Carlos, there was no doubt about that. We hadn’t gone into the game and said, ‘Jordan Hall is only going to get one carry.’ That’s not what we intended. “You kind of fall back into some habits, at least as a playcaller or as a position coach, and at the end of the day you look up and [Hall] has got one carry.”

Hall also isn’t the only other option who is pushing for touches as the Buckeyes start preparing for a visit to No. 16 Northwestern. Dontre Wilson was impacted by Hyde’s return as an every-down rusher as well, with the talented freshman only getting two rushes and catching just one pass.

The way the Buckeyes distributed the football still worked, since Hyde averaged 5 yards per carry, the offense put up 31 points and the program came away with yet another victory in the process. But potentially tweaking the formula after a win surely beats the alternative.

“Is it difficult? No, it's actually awesome,” Meyer said. “It's great. It's not as difficult as the other one where you don't have the puzzle pieces of the checkerboard that you like, and we have several.”

But if it only takes one running back to bust open the gates, the Buckeyes won’t make it more complicated than it needs to be.

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- The announcement was still fresh in mind, barely more than 24 hours old as Urban Meyer reported for the first meeting of the day.

Saturday night’s win over Wisconsin was creeping into Sunday morning when the Ohio State coach walked to a podium he would soon smack after revealing star safety Christian Bryant had been lost for the season with a broken ankle, and it was still early on Monday when his staff met at 7 a.m. to talk about replacing him.

The emotions might still have been raw given Bryant’s importance as more than just a tenacious tackler thanks to the vocal leadership and veteran leadership he provided the Buckeyes in the secondary. But there was nothing Meyer could do to change the fact that Bryant was no longer a part of the plan for trying to stop No. 16 Northwestern on the road this week, and finding somebody to fill that void will stay at the top of the agenda until No. 4 Ohio State finds its best option.

“This is not an easy one,” Meyer said. “Last year, I would have put my hands all over that, because I didn't really know [safeties coach] Everett Withers very well. But he's an excellent football coach, and when we met this morning, I wanted opinions [from the entire staff], and I'm going to give mine.

“And we are going to meet again at 2 o'clock and I want to hear what they are going to do.”

After all that brainstorming, the Buckeyes don’t necessarily need to have identified a permanent solution, but they will need to settle on somebody to line up in Bryant’s spot at safety when they hit the practice field on Tuesday afternoon.

The list has already been whittled to three defensive backs, with Corey “Pittsburgh” Brown the most likely candidate given his experience and some consistent production already this season from his role in the dime package. But nickel safety Tyvis Powell is also a potential target for a starting role in the base formation, and talented true freshman Vonn Bell also gave the Buckeyes something to consider during those conversations on Monday.

But whoever ultimately emerges and takes over Bryant’s job moving forward, the shoes are going to be extremely difficult to fill -- and there isn’t going to be much time to get used to wearing them either.

“This is a very complicated offense,” Meyer said. “It’s one that's going to require [good communication], and one of the disappointing things we had last Saturday was not just a couple guys got beat, but we had some errors in checks and communication.

“We can't have that, and with that position open now, that's a big part of it.”

Brown’s familiarity with the system alongside fellow veteran defensive backs Bradley Roby and C.J. Barnett might give him the edge to claim that spot, and cornerbacks coach Kerry Coombs indicated the senior would likely be getting the first crack at it.

Brown had actually been nipping at Bryant’s heels statistically so far this season, with Bryant only leading Brown by one tackle through five games. And Brown had also chipped in a tackle for a loss and broken up a pass, showing signs of the type of versatility the Buckeyes crave in the secondary.

Bryant, though, has set a high standard for stuffing the box score in a variety of different ways, and at least from an on-field perspective, Coombs and the rest of the defensive staff will be watching closely early in the week to make sure they find somebody capable of providing some similar production across the board.

“I think as we sit here this afternoon that Pitt Brown will go in there and play,” Coombs said. “I don’t know exactly the configuration of how all those guys are going to fit going into the week, and some of that will be developed and discussed during practice.

“But our guys, those are versatile players back there and I think that gets understated somewhat.”

That doesn’t necessarily mean the loss of Bryant has been overstated. But all the coaches can do now is show up for their early meetings and work on a new plan.