Grading our over-under predictions

December, 10, 2013
12/10/13
1:30
PM ET
In the preseason, we took a stab at picking the over-under regular-season win totals for each Big Ten team. We used the baselines established by oddsmakers in Vegas.

Now, it's time to see how we fared -- and find out which of us was smarter in August.

Illinois

Over-under: 3.5
Actual wins: 4
Brian's pick: Under
Adam's pick: Under
20/20 hindsight: We both had the Illini finishing 3-9; the preseason over-under number was a good one. Illinois' blowout win over Cincinnati remains one of the more surprising results of the season, but the Illini also came close to beating Penn State, Indiana and Northwestern.

Indiana

Over-under: 5.5
Actual wins: 5
Brian's pick: Over
Adam's pick: Over
20/20 hindsight: Vegas got us again. Both of us were bullish on the Hoosiers making a bowl game this year. Home losses to Navy and Minnesota were killers.

Iowa

Over-under: 5.5
Actual wins: 8
Brian's pick: Under
Adam's pick: Under
20/20 hindsight: Like most people, we underestimated the Hawkeyes this year. By a lot.

Michigan


Over-under: 8.5
Actual wins: 7
Brian's pick: Over
Adam's pick: Over
20/20 hindsight: So, um, yeah. This isn't going too well for us.

Michigan State

[+] EnlargePhilip Nelson
Michael Hickey/Getty ImagesThe Big Ten bloggers correctly predicted a bowl-bound season for Philip Nelson and the Gophers.
Over-under: 8.5 Actual wins: 11 Brian's pick: Under Adam's pick: Over 20/20 hindsight: Finally, somebody gets one right, and it's Adam. I had Michigan State at 8-4. Adam had the Spartans at 9-3. We both underestimated them.

Minnesota

Over-under: 6.5
Actual wins: 8
Brian's pick: Over
Adam's pick: Over
20/20 hindsight: And I'm on the board. Finally. But 8-4 still surprised us.

Nebraska

Over-under: 9.5 Actual wins: 8 Brian's pick: Over Adam's pick: Over
20/20 hindsight:
I said in my prediction that it wouldn't shock me if Nebraska went 8-4, which they did. Adam called the over "a fairly easy call."

Northwestern

Over-under: 8.5
Actual wins: 5
Brian's pick: Under
Adam's pick: Over
20/20 hindsight: Neither of us thought the Wildcats would miss a bowl game, but I had them falling short of expectations because of the schedule.

Ohio State

Over-under: 11 Actual wins: 12 Brian's pick: Push
Adam's pick: Push 20/20 hindsight: Though we both figured Ohio State would be dominant, we just thought it would be too hard to go undefeated again. It wasn't -- at least until the Big Ten title game.

Penn State

Over-under: 8 Actual wins: 7
Brian's pick:
Push Adam's pick: Push 20/20 hindsight: Another whiff. I even mentioned a possible 6-0 start for Penn State. At least the Nittany Lions beat Wisconsin to get closer to the preseason number.

Purdue

Over-under: 5.5 Actual wins: 1 Brian's pick: Under Adam's pick: Under 20/20 hindsight: Guess it's safe to say the Boilermakers fell way short of expectations in Darrell Hazell's first year, though we both expected some struggles.

Wisconsin

Over-under: 9 Actual wins: 9 Brian's pick: Push Adam's pick: Under 20/20 hindsight: Once again, the wiseguys were right on the number, and so was I, as I predicted a 9-3 season with losses to Arizona State, Ohio State and one other Big Ten team. Blind squirrel, meet nut.

Final results

Brian: 4-8
Adam:
3-9

I won but take no pride in those picks. The lesson here, as always: Don't mess with Vegas.

We also took a stab at some random over-unders of our own in the preseason. Let's take a look at how those turned out:

Michigan State starting QBs

Over-under: 2
Actual: 2
Brian's pick: Over
Adam's pick: Under
20/20 hindsight: The Spartans played three quarterbacks early and very nearly went with a fourth in Damion Terry. But only Andrew Maxwell and Connor Cook started.

Taylor Martinez touchdowns + turnovers

Over-under: 50
Actual: 13
Brian's pick: Under
Adam's pick: Under
20/20 hindsight: This one became a lock because of Martinez's injuries. He finished with 10 touchdowns, two interceptions and a lost fumble. We'll never know what a healthy T-Magic could have done his senior season, and that's a shame.

Big Ten players ejected for targeting

Over-under: 2.5
Actual: 5
Brian's pick: Under
Adam's pick: Over
20/20 hindsight:
It took a while for the league to have its first player ejected, but then the new rule showed its impact. For the record, the five players ejected were Nebraska's Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Ohio State's Bradley Roby, Indiana's David Kenney, Michigan State's Isaiah Lewis and Purdue's Landon Feichter.

Braxton Miller rushing attempts

Over-under: 188 Actual: 131 Brian's pick: Over Adam's pick: Over 20/20 hindsight: Another category where an injury affected things. Miller would have gotten close and possibly reached our over-under if he didn't miss three games with a knee injury.

Chris Borland takeaways

Over-under: 7.5 Actual: 3 Brian's pick: Under Adam's pick: Over 20/20 hindsight: Borland wasn't as active on the turnover front as Adam thought, but he still wound up as the Big Ten defensive player of the year.

Indiana defensive points allowed

Over-under: 29 ppg Actual: 38.8 ppg Brian's pick: Over Adam's pick: Over 20/20 hindsight: And this is why the Hoosiers didn't make a bowl.

Devin Gardner's rushing totals

Over-under: 400 yards and 10 touchdowns Actual: 483 and 11 Brian's pick: Over
Adam's pick: Under
20/20 hindsight: Thanks to a whole lot of sack yardage, Gardner came very close to our preseason baselines.

Iowa AIRBHG strikes

Over-under: 2
Actual: 0 20/20 hindsight: The Iowa running back curse was thankfully lifted this year. Afraid to say anything more for fear of jinxing it.

Totals

Brian: 4-4
Adam: 5-3

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