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Kirk Herbstreit visits Johnny Manziel as he trains with QB specialist George Whitfield this offseason.

If you pay attention to this blog, you've surely seen our Big 12 post-spring power rankings for 2013. But seven months later at the end of the Big 12's regular season, how accurate do they end up being? During the season, power rankings are more of an exercise in taking the temperature of every team in the league, but before the season, they're more of a prediction.

So how have we done on the blog in the past two seasons? How accurate are the predictions? Let's take a look back.

• My 2011 post-spring power rankings
• My 2012 post-spring power rankings

BAYLOR

• 2011: Picked fifth in the Big 12, finished at 10-3 and tied for third in the Big 12.
• 2012: Picked seventh in the Big 12, finished at 8-5 and a four-way tie for fifth in the Big 12.
• 2013: Picked fifth in the Big 12.

IOWA STATE

• 2011: Picked ninth in the Big 12, finished at 6-7 and eighth in the Big 12.
• 2012: Picked ninth in the Big 12, finished at 6-7 and ninth in the Big 12.
• 2013: Picked ninth in the Big 12.

KANSAS

• 2011: Picked 10th in the Big 12, finished at 2-10 and 10th in the Big 12.
• 2012: Picked 10th in the Big 12, finished at 1-11 and 10th in the Big 12.
• 2013: Picked 10th in the Big 12.

KANSAS STATE

• 2011: Picked eighth in the Big 12, finished at 10-3 and second in the Big 12.
• 2012: Picked third in the Big 12, finished at 11-2 and tied for first in the Big 12, though it held the tiebreaker vs. Oklahoma.
• 2013: Picked sixth in the Big 12.

MISSOURI

• 2011: Picked fourth in the Big 12, finished at 8-5 and fifth in the Big 12.

OKLAHOMA

• 2011: Picked first in the Big 12, finished at 10-3 and tied for third.
• 2012: Picked first in the Big 12, finished at 10-3 and tied for first in the Big 12, though K-State held the tiebreaker for the league title.
• 2013: Picked fourth in the Big 12.

OKLAHOMA STATE

• 2011: Picked second in the Big 12, finished at 12-1 and first in the Big 12.
• 2012: Picked sixth in the Big 12, finished at 8-5 and tied for third in the Big 12.
• 2013: Picked first in the Big 12.

TEXAS

• 2011: Picked seventh in the Big 12, finished at 8-5 and tied for sixth in the Big 12.
• 2012: Picked fifth in the Big 12, finished at 9-4 and tied for third in the Big 12.
• 2013: Picked third in the Big 12.

TEXAS A&M

• 2011: Picked third in the Big 12, finished at 7-6 and tied for sixth in the Big 12.

TCU

• 2012: Picked fourth in the Big 12, finished at 7-6 and tied for fifth in the Big 12.
• 2013: Picked second in the Big 12.

TEXAS TECH

• 2011: Picked sixth in the Big 12, finished at 5-7 and ninth in the Big 12.
• 2012: Picked eighth in the Big 12, finished at 8-5 and in a four-way tie for fifth in the Big 12.
• 2013: Picked seventh in the Big 12.

WEST VIRGINIA

• 2012: Picked second in the Big 12, finished at 7-6 and in a four-way tie for fifth in the Big 12.
• 2013: Picked eighth in the Big 12.

I thought West Virginia would handle the transition very well in Year 1 and hit some lean years as it adjusted to the Big 12 in the big picture. The latter is looking true for now, but that former prediction crashed and burned with a five-game losing streak last season.

We looked at the 3,000-yard passers on Tuesday, but what about the guys on the ground? The 1,000-yard mark is the benchmark for a good season running the ball, and the Big 12 had just three players reach it in 2012. Three more had at least 925 yards, but who's going to run for 1,000 yards next season?

Here's who I'm taking:

1. Lache Seastrunk, Baylor: He has physical skills no other back in the league can match, and big-time confidence to go with them. He basically rushed for 1,000 yards in little more than a month last year. I have no doubt he'll do it again. He carries a status into the season as the most dangerous player in the league with the ball in his hands. I'll be shocked if he doesn't top 1,000 yards easily, barring injury.

2. James Sims, Kansas: This will be out of necessity. Sims notched his first 1,000-yard season in 2012 and did so with zero help from the passing game. Everybody knew he'd be getting the ball at least 25 times a game, and they still couldn't stop him. Jake Heaps will add some more balance to help soften up the box, but Sims is still the most reliable player on KU's offense.

3. John Hubert, Kansas State: Hubert's been overshadowed by Collin Klein, and logging over 500 carries in the running game the past couple of seasons has limited what Hubert could do. Still, he's had more than 950 yards in each of the past two seasons. Daniel Sams or Jake Waters will still run the ball, but not as much as Klein did. Look for Hubert to benefit and play the role of bell cow for this offense.

4. Jeremy Smith, Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State has had a 1,000-yard rusher for six consecutive seasons, the longest streak in the Big 12 and one of the nation's longest. It's still a pass-first offense, but that streak's not ending under new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich. Smith's role was marginalized last season behind Joseph Randle despite topping 600 yards back in 2011, but he's going to be the main guy ahead of Desmond Roland this year. He's experienced and a solid blocker, too. That'll keep him on the field a whole lot. He's also got deceptive speed for his size.

Just missed: Damien Williams, Oklahoma.

Note: Texas, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia will have plenty of rushing yards, but the carries will be split too many ways for one player to top 1,000 yards.

We're walking through each Big 12 team and identifying its most irreplaceable talent on the blog right now. He's the guy they can least afford to lose and the guy to whom an injury or departure would have the most effect.

Let's move on with Texas.

More most indispensable players.

Most indispensable player: QB David Ash

Texas is pretty close to being one of the most complete teams in the Big 12 on paper, but Ash holds a lot of that together. The Longhorns have legitimate Big 12 title aspirations, but it's not happening with Case McCoy at quarterback for the conference season. Ash is the Big 12's most experienced quarterback with 18 career starts, and though he's had consistency issues throughout those starts, he's shown the potential to be way, way above average. Critique Ash's shortcomings all you want, but he's definitely good enough to win a Big 12 title considering the team around him, and no other quarterback on Texas' roster can say that. Unless they've got a big lead in the standings late in the season, an injury to Ash means saying goodbye to the Longhorns' Big 12 title hopes. No other position has a player that integral to the team's overall success.

The Longhorns have some promising freshmen on the roster in Tyrone Swoopes and Jalen Overstreet, but no doubt about it: Texas' most indispensable player is Ash.

The much anticipated Alabama-Texas A&M game on Sept. 14 at Kyle Field will be nationally televised by CBS and kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET.

It will be Alabama's first trip to College Station since 1988. The two teams played a classic game in Tuscaloosa last season with the Aggies holding on to win 29-24 over the then No. 1-ranked Crimson Tide. That game was played in November.

The two teams will be opening SEC play against each other next season. Alabama has a bye the second week of the season, while Texas A&M will be coming off a home game against Sam Houston State.

In other SEC schedule news, the Arkansas-LSU game will again be played on the Friday after Thanksgiving next season (Nov. 29) and will be televised nationally by CBS with a 2:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The teams played the Friday after Thanksgiving for 13 straight years from 1996 to 2008 before moving to Saturday in 2009 and 2010.

As part of our 100 days until kickoff coverage this week, we're looking at each conference's biggest underachievements and overachievements in the BCS era. Here's what I say for the Big 12:

Overachievements

1. Frequent title visits. There's plenty of talk about the SEC when you talk BCS, but the Big 12 has made an astounding seven trips to the BCS title game. No league other than the SEC has more than three. The Big 12's consistently been in the mix for titles during the BCS era, cementing a status as one of college football's best leagues. The Big 12 is the only league other than the SEC with multiple national championships since the BCS began.

2. Don't hate 'em because they're beautiful. How about Kansas State? The Wildcats were so unlucky, they had a rule named after them back in 1998 when they were No. 3 in the BCS but snubbed by the rest of the BCS bowls. That's the greatest BCS injustice ever, but Kansas State made two later trips to the BCS with a pair of Big 12 titles in 2003 and 2012.

3. If you can't beat 'em, invite 'em. TCU was a huge overachiever, joining Boise State as the most accomplished programs outside the major conferences. The Frogs crashed the Rose Bowl with a huge win to cap an undefeated 2010 season, and West Virginia is the only team in the nation to go undefeated in the BCS with more than two trips. One of those wins was a blowout over Oklahoma. The Big 12's response in 2012? WVU was deemed worthy and given an invite to the league, moving up from the crumbling Big East.

4. The greatest ever? Vince disagrees. USC was riding high on a 34-game winning streak and with Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart leading the way, was being touted as one of the greatest teams ever. Texas' Vince Young brought a 19-game winning streak of his own into the game and the Longhorns knocked off the Trojans for the Big 12's second national title in one of the greatest games ever and one of the greatest individual performances ever by Young.

5. Want a QB? Texas is where it's at. A few have left the state lines (Howdy, Andrew Luck and Matt Stafford!), but Texas has earned a status as a quarterback hotbed, and the Big 12 has done a stellar job of mining much of the league's success on the backs of those quarterbacks. Who knew one state could be so dominant at one position? Some of the best Big 12 QBs ever have hailed from Texas: Vince Young, Robert Griffin III, Michael Bishop, Chase Daniel, Graham Harrell and Kliff Kingsbury all call the Lone Star State home.

Underachievements

1. Oh, Oklahoma. Oklahoma's made eight visits to the BCS, more than any team but Ohio State. However, one of the biggest (and only, really) knocks on Bob Stoops was his team's record in those games. He started out 2-0 with a national title, but hit a five-game skid between 2004 and 2009. The only reason it broke was because the Sooners got lucky and drew an overmatched, eight-win UConn team in the 2011 Fiesta Bowl.

2. Oh, so close. The Big 12 is stuck in the longest drought in school history. No team has played for the title in the past three seasons, but that's thanks to two monumental upsets. Both Kansas State and Oklahoma State went on the road in mid-November as heavy favorites and suffered losses to keep that rough streak going for the Big 12.

3. Yeah, about that title game record. The Big 12 has made seven trips to the BCS National Championship, but is just 2-5 in those games. Two of those losses were certifiable embarrassments: Miami rolled over Nebraska at the end of the 2001 season and USC routed Oklahoma at the end of the 2004 season. When the benchmark is set by the SEC (9-1 in BCS title games, with the only loss coming to an SEC team), it's hard to call a 2-5 mark anything but underachieving.

4. Making history isn't so much fun sometimes. Nobody gave Boise State a chance back in 2006 against Oklahoma and it was only the second team outside of an automatic qualifying conference to make a BCS appearance. The Big 12 champions, led by Adrian Peterson, got ambushed by a barrage of trick plays in the fourth quarter and in overtime and one of the greatest games in college football history featured the Sooners on the losing end. Fun, memorable game, but an embarrassing loss in a no-win situation for Oklahoma.

5. They should be better than this. Texas and Oklahoma were finally seeing their programs return to national power status when the BCS was born, but the Longhorns' recent slide has to be one of the biggest stories in the Big 12's history. Just when the money flowing into the program was growing exponentially, the Longhorns' on-field struggles began. The streak of nine consecutive 10-win seasons was amazing, but it's hard to remember those days in the shadow of just 22 wins in the three seasons since 2009. The five-win nightmare back in 2010 was the Longhorns' worst season since back in 1997 under John Mackovic.

It's time to look forward to 2013 and the Big 12's best passers. Hitting 3,000 yards is the benchmark for a productive season as a college quarterback.

Four Big 12 quarterbacks threw for at least 3,000 yards last season -- but all four threw for more than 4,000 yards. Two more quarterbacks hit 2,500 yards.

Who will crack the mark in 2013? With so many jobs up in the air, it's going to be tough to predict, but here's who I'm buying as a 3,000-yard passer in 2013, in order of the likelihood they'll do it.

1. Bryce Petty, Baylor: Of all the new quarterbacks in the Big 12, Petty has the most experience in his current system and has the deepest receiving corps. BU's got solid running backs, but this is still a pass-first offense and Petty's got an arm capable of making any play necessary. This is a no-brainer.

2. Michael Brewer, Texas Tech: Call me a believer in coach Kliff Kingsbury as an offensive mind. We'll see about Texas Tech as a whole, but Brewer's got a diverse skill set and his ability to run will make it easier for him to throw. Defenses will have to watch for both. Add to that a high tempo and a very, very good and deep receiving corps, and Brewer should be able to crack 3,000 yards sometime in early November.

3. Clint Chelf, Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State didn't have a 1,600-yard passer last year, but that's what happens when the injury bug bites. OSU has had a 3,000-yard passer in three of the past four seasons before that, though, and cleared the mark easily in team passing yards in all three seasons under the Air Raid. Chelf's likely to hit 4,000 if he wins the job officially.

4. David Ash, Texas: Ash has never hit the 3,000-yard mark, but he's getting better and his receivers are, too. Texas wants to play faster, too, which means more snaps and more pass attempts for Ash, even with a great running back corps with a ton of depth. He was at 2,699 yards last year, but he's got a great shot to get over the top this year.

5. Casey Pachall, TCU: Back in 2011, Pachall was 79 yards short of his first 3,000-yard season. He was well on his way last year with almost 1,000 yards in his first four games (including a win over SMU in a downpour). This one may be close, but if Pachall recaptures the job and only looks like a shell of himself, the odds are still in his favor to crack 3K.

6. Blake Bell, Oklahoma: This one may be close. I'm giving Bell the benefit of the doubt here. Bell's not as refined a passer as Landry Jones, but he's better than he's looked thus far in his career. He'll be running more than Jones, but I'm betting Bell clears the 3,000-yard mark safely.

7. Clint Trickett, West Virginia: West Virginia's going to run the ball a lot more this season with a lot of depth and talent at the position, but it's hard to see whoever wins the QB job not hitting at least 3,000 yards. They won't be reaching Geno Smith's 4,200 yards, but if Trickett beats out Ford Childress and Paul Millard in the Big 12's most unpredictable QB competition, he's hitting 3,000 yards.

The Aggies have plenty of playmakers on offense surrounding quarterback Johnny Manziel.

Our ESPN Stats & Info crew put together 100 numbers you should know with 100 days left before the season starts, and plenty of them are taking up residence in the Big 12.

Colleague Mark Schlabach also has a fun column about the inevitable, brutal, annual summer of anticipation for every college football fan. Let's take a close look at the numbers.

13. (OU streak free): Oklahoma has gone 13 seasons without losing consecutive regular-season games. That's right, the last time the Sooners lost back-to-back regular-season games was in Bob Stoops' first season in Norman in 1999 (to Notre Dame and Texas).

What's more impressive? That stat, or the fact Stoops has never gone consecutive seasons without a Big 12 title while at Oklahoma? Crazy.

16. (Conference realignment): There will be 16 teams with new conference / independent homes entering the 2013 season.

And for the first time since 2010, none of them have any Big 12 ties? Throw a party, Big 12 fans. Stability!

25. (Barry Sanders' Heisman Trophy season): Twenty-five years ago, Barry Sanders of Oklahoma State claimed the Heisman Trophy. In his Heisman-winning campaign of 1988, Sanders rushed for an FBS record 2,628 yards.

Still 25 years later, that rushing number is unfathomable. The Big 12's leading rusher last year, Joseph Randle, had just over 1,400 yards. I really don't think we'll ever see anyone break Barry's record.

31. (New coaches): There will be 31 FBS coaches entering their first seasons at new schools.

Just one in the Big 12, but he's been a high-profile addition. The King, Kliff Kingsbury, returns to his roots in Lubbock as Texas Tech's head coach.

47. (Oklahoma's win streak): Oklahoma's NCAA-record 47-game win streak spanned 1953-57, including back-to-back national titles in 1955-56. The streak ended with a 7-0 loss to Notre Dame on Nov. 16, 1957. Those two programs will meet this season on Sept. 28 in South Bend.

Another record that's not going to be touched ... ever.

73. (Bill Snyder still going): Age of Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder, who is the oldest active FBS coach. His Wildcats are 21-5 over the past two seasons and appeared in a BCS bowl for the first time since 2003 when they fell to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl last season.

K-State seems due for a step back this season, but are you willing to guarantee it?

Which number piques your anticipation the most?

We're walking through each Big 12 team and identifying its most irreplaceable talent on the blog right now. He's the guy they can least afford to lose and the guy to whom an injury or departure would have the most effect.

Let's move on with Texas Tech.

More most indispensable players.

Most indispensable player: TE Jace Amaro

It's not the only reason, but you have to wonder about Texas Tech's record last season, don't you? With Amaro in the lineup during the regular season, Tech was 5-1 with a lopsided win against West Virginia that included five catches for 156 yards and a touchdown from Amaro.

However, he suffered a rib injury against the Mountaineers and Tech fell to just 2-4 the rest of the regular season before Amaro returned for the bowl game. A tougher schedule had a lot to do with that 2-4 stretch, but Tech's offense just wasn't the same without him. It was held to 24 points or less in losses to Texas, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. I don't believe the losses were solely because of Amaro, but his absence changed the offense. He's an impossible matchup for defenses at 6-foot-5 and 257 pounds. He knows how to use his body, he's got great speed and is unbelievably difficult to bring down in the open field. The Red Raiders simply don't have another player like him, and obviously makes him irreplaceable. We saw the results last season. Amaro was the best tight end in the Big 12 last season, but an injury kept him off the All-Big 12 team. He'll be the league's best tight end again this season, and if he can stay healthy, he won't have much competition for that first-team spot. No question about this one: This season, Amaro is Tech's most irreplaceable talent.

Delvon Simmons' road to Texas Tech was complicated, but his stay was short.

He's elected to transfer, according to multiple reports, leaving a void in the middle of Texas Tech's defensive line. Simmons won a starting job last season and made 27 tackles with six tackles for loss and two sacks.

Simmons, a 6-foot-5, 290-pounder from McKeesport, Pa., came to Texas Tech as a four-star recruit and the No. 3 player in his state. He signed with North Carolina originally, but never played. Tommy Tuberville's staff in Lubbock got Simmons to make the big move from Pennsylvania to West Texas in his 2011 recruiting class.

He would have been a junior this season and showed some promise, but can't seem to catch a break when it comes to coaching changes. He's got tons of talent, but wanted to leave UNC after his position coach took a job in the NFL. Now, another coaching change has him looking elsewhere.

It's not great timing for Texas Tech's defense, who won't find many others on the depth chart with Simmons' physical gifts. He didn't live up to the hype at Tech yet, but he definitely was on the right track. We'll see if he can reboot his career elsewhere.

Simmons, who has two years of eligibility left, will have to sit out the 2013 season if he goes to an FBS school. CBS reported reported Simmons planned to visit USC.

A list of Wes Lunt's five possible future destinations surfaced earlier this week, but Oklahoma State is limiting more than half of them.

From colleague Joe Schad:

Former Oklahoma State quarterback Wes Lunt's release will not allow him to transfer to Southern Miss, Tennessee or Vanderbilt, according to several people briefed on the decision.

Lunt had been considering transferring to all three schools, a person familiar with his plans told ESPN this week. He can still visit and consider the other two schools on his list, Illinois and Louisville, sources said.

CBS earlier reported that Oklahoma State had trimmed Lunt's list.

See the full story for more.

We've spent two weeks counting it down, and we're finally at the top. It's been quite a ride, but it's time to bring our list to a close. We'll tackle the list of guys who just missed the list sometime next week, but without further ado, here's my pick for the greatest player in the Big 12 history.

Here's more on my criteria.

No. 1: Vince Young, QB, Texas

Why he's No. 1: No player in Big 12 history was more singularly responsible for a national title. Texas had a strong team in 2005, but Vince Young's run through that season made history. Before Young, no quarterback had ever thrown for 3,000 yards and run for 1,000 yards. On the way to a national title, Young threw for 3,036 and 26 touchdowns, adding 1,050 rushing yards and 12 scores. A few others have achieved the feat since, but it was unheard of before Young, who finished his career with an absurd 30-2 record as a starting quarterback. That record included six fourth-quarter comebacks and the greatest BCS title game performance ever by an individual.

Against USC's so-called "Greatest Team Ever," Young racked up 267 passing yards and 200 rushing yards, capped by a game-winning scramble on fourth down to put the Longhorns ahead, 41-38, and end the Trojans' 34-game winning streak. It's the last time a non-SEC team won a national title, and Young's development as a passer that season helped Texas reach new heights. He rushed for 1,000 yards in 2004 on the way to a Rose Bowl win against Michigan, but threw for just 1,849 yards and 12 touchdowns. He helped carry Texas to a 24-1 record in 2004 and 2005 combined, the fewest losses in any two-year stretch of Mack Brown's career. Even as far back as 2003, his redshirt freshman year, he rushed for 998 yards and took over the starting job in the middle of the season, going 6-1.

Young never won a Heisman Trophy, but did win the Davey O'Brien Trophy and the Maxwell Award in 2005. The lack of membership in that hallowed college football fraternity is nothing more than a footnote in the career of the greatest Big 12 player of all-time.

I wasn't sure what to expect from the Iowa State faithful when I asked what their most important game in 2012 was, but I wasn't surprised to see a rivalry game against an average at best Iowa team earn 32 percent of the vote.

The biggest earner, however, was Iowa State's Thursday night game against Texas, which received 36 percent of the vote.

The Cyclones' home game against Oklahoma State was in third with 17 percent of the vote, but I was surprised Tulsa (nine percent) and Kansas (six percent) didn't earn a bit more of the vote.

Me? I'm with the fans on this one. Iowa State needs big wins and needs exposure, and it will get both in a Thursday night game against Texas. I've said for a long time that Jack Trice Stadium is an underrated venue, and it will be on display on national television against the Longhorns.

Can the team hold up its end of the bargain? I remember back in 2011 the Cyclones raced to a 3-0 start with three fourth-quarter comebacks led by quarterback Steele Jantz, and hosted a top 20 Texas team. It got rocked, trailing 34-0 at halftime of the 37-14 loss. That kind of thing can't happen this season. It took the air out of the stadium in Ames, and did more harm than good.

Looking back on that adds some gravity to the Cyclones' game. Yes, it's an opportunity, but it's a risk, too. Texas could come to Ames undefeated, and a lopsided loss gives everyone in the Big 12 and the country reason to dismiss ISU as a program to respect.

Win, and that's another win against a top 10 team on Paul Rhoads' resume, and a chance for ISU to earn a reputation as a team capable of building beyond just six and seven-win seasons, and taking that famed "next step" as a program. A win against Texas could be the key to making that happen, and to me, that makes it the most important game of 2013.

David Ubben is talking Devonte Fields, rivalries, and recruiting trail in this week's Friday Four Downs in the Big 12.