ESPN

Colleague Brian Fremeau at Football projected the finish of each Big 12 team and calculated the odds of each Big 12 team winning the title.

He says Texas leads the way at 10-2 with a 39 percent chance of winning the league, but also says five teams in the Big 12 have zero chance of winning the Big 12.

You'll need ESPN Insider to read the full piece, but I'll definitely check in before the season with my own projections. It's not hard to see Texas winning the Big 12, but I don't buy the Longhorns as the league's favorite. I believe in advanced metrics to tell you more about games that have already happened and give you a better insight into team's strengths and weaknesses, but I don't buy them as reliable predictors of future games.

Such is life in college football.

Fremeau says Oklahoma State has the second-highest percent chance to win the league, at 30 percent. That's ahead of in-state rival Oklahoma, at 16 percent.

Big 12 sophomores TCU is the only other Big 12 team Fremeau gives a reasonable chance to win the league, with 14 percent. Kansas State is at No. 5 in his rankings, and the other big surprise for me is Texas Tech below West Virginia in his rankings.

Give the post a look. He also offers a win total range for each team in the Big 12, and says only one could go undefeated.

1. Oklahoma State: The Cowboys don't know (or at least, won't say on the record) who their Week 1 starting quarterback will be, but Mike Gundy's team boasts the Big 12's top returning receiver and should have a great shot to win their second Big 12 title in three seasons. Adjusting to new defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer's more aggressive style shouldn't be too difficult, and new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich sounds like a quick study in picking up the offense.

2. TCU: The Frogs should have the Big 12's best defense on paper after returning nine starters from the league leader in total defense last season, but Casey Pachall returning to his old form is key to the Frogs scoring enough points to win the Big 12 title in their second season in the league.

3. Texas: The Longhorns have the league's most experienced quarterback in David Ash and a deep, talented stable of running backs who complement each other well. But the defense has a lot to prove after being one of the biggest disappointments in the Big 12 last season. It's a crucial season for coach Mack Brown, too. This season feels like a BCS-or-bust type of year for the Longhorns, who have been vocal this offseason about nine wins not being enough.

4. Oklahoma: The Sooners' defense was embarrassed by some great offenses late in 2013 and lost most of its top talents to the NFL draft. Blake Bell looks to have secured the quarterback spot despite no official announcement, but the Sooners need young talents like Frank Shannon, Cortez Johnson and Julian Wilson to have breakout seasons.

5. Baylor: The Bears closed 2012 as the hottest team in the Big 12 and had the league's best performance of the bowl season. Bryce Petty looks ready to take the reins on offense, and a strong finish to 2012 by a defense that returns seven starters should carry over to 2013. The D is deeper, faster and will ultimately decide how far up the Big 12 ladder Baylor can climb.

6. Kansas State: K-State's returning fewer starters -- eight -- than any team in the Big 12, but nobody does more with less than Bill Snyder. The talent level will take a hit, mostly on defense, but underrated back John Hubert can make the transition from quarterback Collin Klein simpler for whoever wins the battle between Jake Waters and Daniel Sams. Linebacker Tre Walker's return from a knee injury will be a huge help for a defense that needs experience and talent.

7. Texas Tech: New coach Kliff Kingsbury inherits an experienced team with a lot of upside, but Texas Tech still has to prove it can do more than win eight games. It hasn't topped that total since 2008, when it reached No. 2 in the BCS and started 10-0. Tech boasts one of the Big 12's best defensive lines, and quarterback Michael Brewer has a lot of promise and a pair of great targets in receiver Eric Ward and tight end Jace Amaro.

8. West Virginia: The first season in the Big 12 was a learning experience for WVU, but it won't get any easier this fall. The Mountaineers return just three starters from a dangerous offense in 2012 and have to count on improvement from a defense that showed little flash or reason for optimism in 2013. Safeties Karl Joseph and Darwin Cook need to lead and push that defense along.

9. Iowa State: ISU is moving past the losses of linebackers A.J. Klein and Jake Knott and is hoping Sam Richardson provides the quarterback play that's been missing under Paul Rhoads. He's got a solid group of running backs and an offensive line that should be great, but the receivers leave a bit to be desired and have to improve.

10. Kansas: Charlie Weis turned tons of heads by bringing in almost 20 junior college transfers for 2013, but KU will go as far as new quarterback Jake Heaps, a BYU transfer, can take them. With a 21-game losing streak in Big 12 hanging over their heads entering the season, up is the only way to go. For now, though, they've got to start at the bottom.

I remember colleague Ted Miller over at the Pac-12 blog's incessant complaints about the league playing nine conference games well.

"You don't understand!"

"The math makes the standings look worse!"

"Why is no one else doing this?"

After a year of repeatedly sending the whambulence over to the West Coast, the Big 12 followed the Pac-12's lead and added a nine-game conference schedule.

With great trepidation, I admitted that my boy Ted was absolutely correct. With a nine-game conference schedule comes five additional guaranteed losses to the Big 12's pool, and though it helps the league's overall strength of schedule, it hurts the league's overall record.

That was never more evident in 2012, when five teams from the Big 12 finished 7-5 in the regular season. Chances are that if the Big 12 plays 10 more nonconference games instead of five conference games, it's going to win a whole lot more than five of those, the middle of the league gets stronger, and the road to an undefeated season gets easier.

TV money and a round-robin schedule were the biggest motivators to adding a ninth conference game despite the losses, but college football is changing.

As the sport prepares to begin its playoff system, though, it's no longer about perception. It's about fairness. Last week, the Big Ten announced plans to add a ninth conference game, but last fall, the ACC scrapped its plans to join the Big 12 and Pac-12 in playing nine league games.

The Big Ten won't begin playing nine games until 2016, but its move means that, by then, three of the major five conferences will be playing nine league games.

The SEC and ACC are sitting it out.

Could anyone imagine the NFC being forced to play 18 regular-season games while AFC teams just played 16, along with two preseason games that didn't really count? If that happened, would it not cheapen the Super Bowl?

That's what the College Football Playoff is facing from those who are paying attention. It's the most overlooked inequality in college football. It simply doesn't make sense, and though college football's conferences work as anything but a cohesive unit, the lopsided schedules make for obvious unfairness between the leagues, who will be chasing selection into the four-team playoff.

It would be easier for the Pac-12 to go back to eight games -- the Big 12 would have to sacrifice its round-robin schedule to do so -- but it's hard to see that actually happening and TV networks agreeing to keep writing the same checks with less inventory available.

The Big Ten is unlikely to scrap its plans, even though they've been moderately controversial. Money can make things happen, and more conference games can mean more money. Every conference moving to nine games is the more realistic option, but the end goal ought to be fairness.

Talk of the SEC adding a ninth game has been met with criticism, but what's there to be afraid of? It's time to turn that talk into reality.

If the conferences continue to play different numbers of conference games, the head-scratching inequality will continue. The biggest criticism is obvious: "Hey, the SEC already plays nine conference games! Ever heard of the SEC championship game?"

It's not exactly the same and only affects the top of the standings, but how about a trade-off?

The Big 12 brings back the title game, much to the chagrin of the coaches. The SEC and ACC add a ninth game.

Evening the playing field is the goal, and accepting that it just won't happen under the new playoff is silliness.

Time to look at a few of the best things in the Big 12 this spring.

Biggest breakout star: Bryce Petty. The Bears' quarterback is an unknown for now, but he's learned a proven system under great coaches and great quarterbacks. This spring, he never let his competition come close to making it real quarterback battle in Waco. Despite windy conditions, he capped the spring with 181 yards and two touchdowns on 13-of-15 passing. Don't be surprised if he hangs similar stat lines in a first half or two next year.

Biggest flip-flop: Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy. Midway through the spring, Gundy offered some real clarity on his quarterback situation, which ended with Clint Chelf carrying the Cowboys through bowl practices and a lopsided win in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. "Clint Chelf is our starter, he takes all the reps with the ones right now. The other guys compete out there, but I don't necessarily feel like there's a battle out there to start in the first game," Gundy said. A week later, though, he said the Pokes "haven't necessarily said anything about the [starter for the] first game of the season." He says they won't be offering any updates on the QB situation until after the season opener against Mississippi State and Chelf is off-limits to media, along with his competition, sophomores J.W. Walsh and Wes Lunt.

Best spring-game performance: Jordan Thompson, WR, West Virginia. Dana Holgorsen joked that Thompson is earning a reputation as the greatest spring game player of all time after he recorded six catches for 123 yards and three touchdowns. Just don't spend too much time reading this paragraph. "Until he plays like that in a game, we're going to call it like it is," Holgorsen said. "I haven't seen him play like that in a game yet. Until he does that in a game, we're not going to talk about it."

Biggest surprise: TCU's quarterback indecision. Many assumed that Casey Pachall's return to the Horned Frogs meant Trevone Boykin's days as the starting quarterback were over, or at least on hold for another season. After 15 practices this spring, however, that hasn't been the case just yet. Coach Gary Patterson says Boykin's made big strides since the end of the season and Pachall looked rusty after not working out or throwing while he was in treatment for drug and alcohol addiction. More than a few folks are skeptical of Patterson's insistence that the competition is still open, but we'll know for sure when TCU opens against LSU.

Most to prove: Jake Heaps and Kansas. KU's Big 12 losing streak now stands at 21 games, and Heaps is looking like a much better passer than Dayne Crist was at this time last year. Charlie Weis is also stocking his roster with tons of juco talent, which could mean a quick turnaround. Will it, though? KU needs to get back to respectability and fast, but winning that first Big 12 game won't be easy.

Best new uniforms: Baylor and West Virginia. West Virginia had a ballyhooed debut before its spring game with three sets of white, blue and Old Gold pants, jerseys and helmets, giving WVU 27 possible combinations. The numbers on the jerseys are also inspired by miners' pick axes. Baylor also debuted new jerseys, highlighted by an all gold chrome helmet and most importantly, the elimination of a cartoonish bear claw mark on the pants.

Colleague Mark Schlabach updated his preseason Top 25 after the spring, and there's still no Big 12 teams in the top 10, but two made his top 15.

PODCAST
Baylor head coach Art Briles joins Fitzsimmons & Durrett to discuss what kind of player the Cowboys are getting in Terrance Williams. Listen

I agree with shutting the Big 12 out of the top 10, though it would be the first time in league history it lacked a team in the preseason top 10. Where we disagree? The order.

Schlabach has Texas as the Big 12's top team at No. 13.

"(Mack) Brown also believes UT's defense, which ranked 73rd nationally in scoring defense (29.2 points per game) last season, will be more equipped to defend hurry-up offenses after seeing one in practice every day," Schlabach writes.

Maybe Texas ends up winning the league, but that defense has to show me something more and the offense has to be more consistent before I really believe the league's best team is the Longhorns. Two spots later, my Big 12 favorite, Oklahoma State, makes its appearance.

"(Defensive coordinator Glenn) Spencer inherits an experienced defense -- 13 of the top 27 players on the defensive depth chart are seniors," Schlabach writes.

Good points there, and one that gets overlooked. It'll pay off for the Pokes, who actually moved up five spots from No. 20 since Schlabach's last update. Texas had moved up one spot, from No. 14.

Oklahoma, though, is at No. 17, down two spots from the last update.

"The Sooners have to settle on a starting quarterback (all signs point to Blake Bell replacing record-setting passer Landry Jones), but their biggest concerns are still on the defensive side of the ball," Schlabach writes. "OU coach Bob Stoops admitted this spring that defensive coordinator Mike Stoops (his brother) might have underestimated the strength of Big 12 offenses in his first season back in the league."

Very interesting revelation from Schlabach there, who made a visit to Norman this spring. I definitely agree about the defense being a bigger issue, but Stoops sounded optimistic last week about the progress of some younger players like Frank Shannon and Cortez Johnson.

The fourth Big 12 team is right at No. 18, down from No. 17. That's my Big 12 No. 2: TCU.

"The Horned Frogs learned plenty while finishing 7-6 in their first season in the Big 12. They know defense is still their strength, after leading the Big 12 in total defense, allowing 323.9 yards per game," he writes.

That's no small accomplishment, especially considering how their fellow Big 12 newcomer, West Virginia, handled the offenses. TCU had to deal with tons of injuries and a whole lot of youth on defense, and still had the league's best defense. Amazing stuff.

Schlabach's much higher on Kansas State than I am, keeping the Wildcats at No. 20 coming off their Big 12 title season.

"Kansas State is renovating Bill Snyder Family Stadium this spring, and the Wildcats' venerable coach is rebuilding his football team, too," he writes.

Certainly seems like we have differing opinions on just how well that rebuilding project will go.

That's quite a logjam, and you can see why the league looks so wide open. That's five Big 12 teams in seven spots from No. 13 to No. 20. There's just not much separation between the league's No. 1 team and No. 7 team. Baylor and Texas Tech won't have to do much to crack the Top 25 this season, but I still see the Big 12 with four major contenders and three teams who could definitely get in the mix.

More than 250 players were drafted over the weekend, but not everyone who plans on playing in the NFL made it happen.

Minicamps aren't far away, but players can sign with teams as soon as the draft ends. Many did over the weekend. Here's a look at the Big 12's notable signings.

• Kansas State QB Collin Klein -- Houston Texans
• Oklahoma S Tony Jefferson -- Arizona Cardinals
• Iowa State LB Jake Knott -- Philadelphia Eagles
• Texas Tech QB Seth Doege -- Atlanta Falcons
• Oklahoma RB Dominique Whaley -- Seattle Seahawks
• Oklahoma OL Lane Taylor -- Green Bay Packers
• Texas Tech OL LaAdrian Waddle -- Detroit Lions
• Oklahoma State K/P Quinn Sharp -- Cincinnati Bengals
• Texas Tech S Cody Davis -- St. Louis Rams
• Iowa State DL Jake McDonough -- New York Jets
• Kansas State DE Meshak Williams -- unsigned
• Texas Tech WR Darrin Moore -- unsigned
• West Virginia OL Joe Madsen -- Pittsburgh Steelers
• Kansas QB Dayne Crist -- Kansas City Chiefs

A few thoughts:

• Collin Klein is the obvious headliner on this list, and I'm torn on him. On the one hand, there's nothing like playing quarterback, and that's the position he wants to play and loves to play. On the other, he hasn't looked like an NFL passer at any point in his career, and he did his future career a disservice by not letting scouts get a look at him at receiver or tight end. He's a big body and an athletic, tough guy. If he wants to play quarterback and only quarterback, then fine. That's up to him. If he really is open to doing something else at the next level, he should have done more work at other positions. I don't see him making an NFL roster as a quarterback.
• Safeties Tony Jefferson and Cody Davis should definitely make their respective rosters, however, and I'll be intrigued to see what Jefferson looks like and says once he's in camp. He sounded pretty salty on Twitter over the weekend. "I can't even attempt to express how I feel right now. Y'all really don't know how hurt/confused I am!" he tweeted. "Y'all don't even understand the fire inside of me man." Him going undrafted was definitely the most shocking Big 12 development of the draft for me, but he'll have a whole lot of motivation and a lot to prove.
• I have to think Jake Knott would have gotten drafted if not for his shoulder surgery and being limited in workouts for NFL teams. He makes his name on his smarts, instincts and toughness because he lacks speed and a ton of agility, but being banged up and not testing well certainly didn't bode well for him in the immediate future. Mildly surprised that somebody didn't start drooling over his game tape and take a shot on him in the sixth or seventh round.
• First guy in this group to get paid big soon? My money is on Quinn Sharp, the do-everything special teamer.
• Very surprised to see Darrin Moore and Meshak Williams go unsigned so far. Moore is physically gifted, but lacked production and didn't make a team fall in love with him. Williams, though? I get that he's not exactly ideal size, but for his effort and production, how does some team not at least bring him into minicamp? That's just insane.
• Watching the Big 12 quarterbacks is always interesting. Doege didn't have great arm strength, but had solid accuracy. Crist had the big arm, but his decision-making and accuracy were lacking. We'll see if either of those guys can make a splash with a fresh start in a new spot.
• One final thought: If I have to hear the phrase "chip on their shoulder" another time in the next week, I'm going to lose it. For the record, if you really did have one, I'm fairly certain that's something that would require surgery.

The NFL draft is done, and you can find some raw data at the bottom of this post, but here are a few thoughts:

• You can see our thoughts on the first round here, so today, we'll focus on the rest of the draft.

• What a nighmare spot for Geno Smith to land after a rough drop out of the first round. Sure, he might be able to earn some early playing time for the Jets, and it's not hard to see him beating out a couple of first-round picks in Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow, but the Jets are a complete zoo with six quarterbacks on the roster, and Chaz Schilens (what??) and former TCU receiver Jeremy Kerley as their top targets in the passing game. Good grief. Smith won't be pressured to play early, but it's hard to imagine him walking into a worse situation as a rookie quarterback, with no one to really learn from, tons of distractions and a zoo-like atmosphere on a Jets team that isn't expected to come anywhere close to the playoffs next season.
• On the flip side, how happy is Sam Bradford after this weekend? And how awesome is Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey getting to continue playing together? The Rams just gained an entire state as a fan base. You'll be able to see plenty of St. Louis games in West Virginia, I'm betting. Don't be surprised if both of those guys are starters in Week 1 for a team badly in need of receivers after losing Danny Amendola to the Patriots. Austin is obviously more physically gifted, but Bailey has great hands and knows how to play the position. You don't catch 25 touchdown passes on accident.
• Meanwhile, great landing spot for Landry Jones, who stuck around Oklahoma an extra year, passing up a first-round grade from the advisory committee. He appeared to regress this year, falling back to the fourth round. Walking into a place where he had to start early with few weapons would be a tough spot for any quarterback, even though Jones, with four years of starting experience, would be as ready as anyone. Instead, he'll sit behind Ben Roethlisberger, and considering how much Roethlisberger gets hit, don't be surprised if Jones is forced into starting duty once or twice next season. On a random note: Jones' landing spot is a little funny considering his wife played with Roethlisberger's little sister, Carlee, on the women's basketball team at Oklahoma.
• How perfect is Arthur Brown going to the Ravens? It's too bad he won't get to learn from Ray Lewis firsthand, but you can bet Lewis will have a hand in Brown's development. Brown is mean, fast and smart. That fits the Ravens perfectly.
• Jerry Jones loves him some Big 12 offensive skill talent. Dez Bryant blossomed this season, but the Dallas Cowboys went out and grabbed running back Joseph Randle and receiver Terrance Williams, the league's top rusher and receiver. I don't see Randle as a star in the NFL, but a solid contributor. Williams, though, will be fascinating to see in an offense thin at receiver behind Bryant. Miles Austin has had health issues, and Bryant has, too. Keep an eye out for Williams to make a splash in an offense that loves to throw it around. Randle will be backing up a familiar face in ex-Oklahoma running back DeMarco Murray.
• Great fit for Kenny Stills in New Orleans. The Saints have several aging receivers there to teach Stills a thing or two, but enough passes to get him some early experience. I'm betting on Stills as a 1,000-yard receiver in Year 3.
• Very cool reunion out in Arizona with Alex Okafor joining his old teammate, Sam Acho, on the Cardinals. It will be fun to see those guys on the field.
• Texas Tech was the only Big 12 team without a player drafted.
• Very shocked to see Oklahoma's Tony Jefferson and Iowa State's Jake Knott go undrafted. More so with Jefferson, who left school early and had great physical gifts. ESPN had him as the No. 5 safety in the draft at one point, but he wasn't among the more than 20 safeties drafted. Very odd. I have to wonder what's going on there. Has to be something other than his physical skills. He didn't necessarily show a lot of improvement throughout his career, but he was an All-Big 12 talent who made 100+ tackles this season. More on the Big 12's notable undrafted players later this morning.
• Not a good year for the Big 12 in the draft, with an all-time low 22 players drafted, but you also have to consider that it's just the second year that the league had just 10 teams. Texas A&M and Missouri had a combined eight draft picks, helping the 14-team SEC set an all-time record for draft picks by conference. By eight selections, of course. Generally, not a good trend for the Big 12. Most alarming: The SEC East and SEC West both had more draft picks than any other conference in college football. Good grief.

 

Here's the ranking of players drafted, by Big 12 team.

1. Oklahoma -- six players
2. West Virginia -- three players
2. Texas -- three players
2. Kansas State -- three players
5. Iowa State -- two players
5. TCU -- two players
7. Baylor -- one player
7. Kansas -- one player
7. Oklahoma State -- one player
10. Texas Tech -- zero players

Here are the conference rankings:


1. SEC -- 63 players
2. ACC -- 31 players
3. Pac-12 -- 28 players
4. Big 12 -- 22 players
4. Big Ten -- 22 players
6. Big East -- 18 players

Here is the full list of the 22 players from the Big 12 who were drafted:

Our crack RecruitingNation team released their first ESPN 150 for the class of 2014 last week, a list that will shift a bit over the next nine months, but serves as a starting place for what the nation's top recruits look like and where they're hailing from.

You can see a further breakdown here, with lots of intriguing numbers. There are 16 ESPN 150 prospects in Texas, the second most of any state, but well behind Florida's 26. Making an impact in the state of Texas is how you win in the Big 12, but with Oklahoma State's emergence and TCU's new Big 12 membership, there are a few more hands in the pot for elite prospects than there used to be.

Two more ESPN 150 prospects are from Kansas and three other Big 12 states have one ESPN 150 member: Iowa, Kansas and West Virginia.

The biggest group of ESPN 150 members by position: wide receivers, with 18.

Recruiting is a year-round game, and it's time to take our monthly look at how this year's recruiting classes are progressing. Getting off to a quick start can get things rolling for any class. Here's how I'd rank the classes thus far. Click on each team to see the full class, though you'll need ESPN Insider to see it.

1. Texas

Total commits: 14
ESPN 150 commits: 2
Class notes: The Longhorns added seven commits since our last update and debuted at No. 1 in our ESPN 2014 class rankings released last week. Jermaine Roberts, the nation's No. 14 cornerback, and Houston native Otaro Alaka (No. 9 OLB) headline a very busy month for the Longhorns. Texas also got a commit from the nation's No. 2 center, Terrell Cuney, though it lost Demetrius Knox, the nation's No. 14 offensive guard, on Monday. Texas is the only Big 12 team with multiple commits in the ESPN 150.

2. Texas Tech

Total commits: 9
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: The Red Raiders made a big move since our last update, adding five commits and jumping ahead of Oklahoma for the No. 2 spot in our conference recruiting rankings. Four of Texas Tech's five commits made their pledge over the weekend while the spring game took place, including quarterback Patrick Mahomes and skill position talents DeMarcus Felton (RB) and Cameron Batson (WR). Kliff Kingsbury is doing some serious work on the recruiting trail. Tech doesn't have a huge commit that will turn heads, but this is a strong start for a class that already looks pretty deep.

3. Oklahoma

Total commits: 4
ESPN 150 commits: 1
Class notes: The Sooners grabbed a huge pickup on the weekend of their spring game with quarterback Justice Hansen from nearby Edmond, Okla. The nation's No. 3 dual-threat quarterback gave Oklahoma its lone ESPN 150 commit, and two days later, the nation's No. 30 receiver, Dallis Todd, followed suit with a commit.

4. TCU Horned Frogs

Total commits: 5
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: TCU is bringing two quarterbacks to Fort Worth in this class, including its latest commit. Fort Worth native Foster Sawyer (future All-Name Teamer, folks) joins Grayson Muehlstein to give the Frogs a pair of pro-style passers who combine to have four last names.

5. Oklahoma State

Total commits: 3
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: Oklahoma State added a pair of commits who rank in the top 15 nationally at their position to jump ahead of Baylor in these rankings. The nation's No. 15 running back, Devon Thomas, and No. 14 OLB Gyasi Akem both pledged to be future Cowboys.

6. Kansas State

Total commits: 5
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: Outside linebacker Elijah Lee (No. 41 at the position) is the biggest pickup for the Wildcats since our last update, but four of K-State's five commits are in the top 50 nationally at their respective positions. Defensive end C.J. Reese also committed to K-State since our last update.

7. Baylor Bears

Total commits: 4
ESPN 150 commits: 1
Class notes: The Bears have the Big 12's top overall commit in ATH Davion Hall, the nation's No. 73 overall prospect, but don't have another player ranked nationally at his respective position. Offensive guard Devonte Jones joined the Bears' class over the weekend. One player, a recruiting class does not make, which is why the Bears have been passed up by three teams since our last update.

8. West Virginia

Total commits: 2
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: West Virginia launched itself ahead of Iowa State on this update with a big pickup over the weekend. The nation's No. 12 dual-threat passer, Baltimore's William Crest, pledged to Dana Holgorsen and the Mountaineers. He went to the same high school as Tavon Austin.

9. Iowa State

Total commits: 1
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: Iowa State doesn't have a commitment since December, but the nation's No. 33 receiver, Allen Lazard, is a nice pickup from inside state lines. Opinions on Lazard differ widely between recruiting services. I've already heard from a number of ISU fans about Lazard's modest ranking. Don't shoot the messenger, folks.

10. Kansas

Total commits: 1
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: Kansas hasn't added anyone since our last update, but still has a pledge from running back Traevohn Wrench, a 6-foot-1, 190-pounder from Gardner, Kan.

Last week, I got an interesting email from a reader who wondered if the Big 12 was feeling the sting of regret by not inviting an eager Louisville program into the Big 12 -- and then promptly watching the Cardinals win a national title in basketball and a BCS bowl game in the same calendar year, a feat duplicated by only Florida and, yes, Kansas.

It's a complicated debate, if only for the number of different scenarios in which Louisville might have been a Big 12 member. Could the Big 12 have done so and left out West Virginia or even TCU? Could it have invited all three and been an 11-team league? It sounds awkward, but the Big Ten operated with that arrangement for two decades until recently inviting Nebraska.

Today, that discussion gained a bit more relevance with the news that the ACC has agreed to a grant of rights through 2026-27, effectively ending any idea the Big 12 had of making Louisville a member anytime soon. (And Florida State, Clemson or Notre Dame, for that matter). The Cardinals will be locked up just like the rest of the Big 12 has been since executing a six-year grant of rights before extending it to 13 years last fall.

Writes colleague Brett McMurphy:

The ACC's grant of rights guarantees if a school leaves for another league in the 14 years, that its school's media rights, including revenue, for all home games would remain with the ACC and not its new conference.

"That ends expansion right there," a source said.

My take on the Louisville issue is here, and it inspired a whole lot of response from plenty of you. I'm intrigued by what you think.

It's easy to be enticed by the recent success, but difficult to convince me that Louisville's modest historical success on the football field produces enough attention and success to warrant inclusion. It's not out of the question, but it's not a slam dunk, either. TCU made a whole bunch of sense with its history among Big 12 members as a member of the old Southwest Conference, proximity and growing football tradition, brand and stadium, and West Virginia was the Big East's biggest, most recognizable (and valuable) football brand.

Still, what do you think? Should the Big 12 have brought in Louisville in any capacity? I'm accepting all votes here: A "Yes" as the the Big 12's ninth, 10th or 11th member counts as a "Yes." No is no.

Cast your votes.

 

College football is preparing to enter a brave new world in 2014 with the advent of a four-team playoff, and that also means bowl alliances will be shifting.

For the Big 12, that could mean more bowl games within driving distance, in part inspired by Iowa State fans' mass exodus to last year's Liberty Bowl. Over 14,000 Cyclones fans bought tickets from the school to the bowl game, and around 25,000 showed up to the stadium in Memphis on game day. ISU only landed in because nine Big 12 teams made bowls and the league only had eight bowl tie-ins, but the Big 12 sounds intriuged by the prospect of adding more bowl games in Tennessee, as well as Florida, which had been previously reported.

From the Associated Press:

"I think that probably did cause us to think about bowls closer to home," (Big 12 commissioner Bob) Bowlsby said in a recent phone interview.

Bowlsby declined to talk about specific bowls being targeted by the Big 12, but a person familiar with the conference's plans told The Associated Press league officials are interested in striking a deal with at least one of the Tennessee bowls games -- the Liberty Bowl or the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl in Nashville.

...

Ames, Iowa, is about a six-hour drive from Memphis.

Most of the other nine Big 12 schools are within seven to 10 hours of Memphis -- not a short trip but doable in a day.

"Our guys said we'd be well advised to have some bowl that we can drive to," Bowlsby said.

I'd be hesitant to make major decisions based on Iowa State here, because simply going to a bowl game means a lot more to that program than many in the Big 12, but getting away to Memphis or Nashville during the holiday season is definitely attractive and cost-effective.

New York, meanwhile, sounds fun. It's proven to be a headache for Big 12 fans and teams who have endured travel troubles, practice inconveniences (everybody loves holding practices in hotel ballrooms, right? West Virginia and Kansas State had to do it in 2012 and 2010, respectively) and low attendance, and the report says what's long been assumed among most everyone in the Big 12: The relationship between the league and the New Era Pinstripe Bowl is likely to end soon.

While the Big 12 looks toward Florida for a game, the Big Ten wants more games in California, which could mean the Big 12's alliance with the Holiday Bowl could end, too. Bowl executive director Bruce Binkowski said the bowl game is looking at all its options for now.

We could see some more movement and more comments on the record after this week's BCS meetings, but a little bit of variety in the Big 12 bowl lineup would be a welcome change, I'm sure.

Turnover at the quarterback position is the story of the Big 12 this spring, but some schools have made decisions, some are close, and some haven't gotten far in replacing their passers. Here's an update on where each race sits.

Note: Because they have clear, incumbent starters, Iowa State and Texas have been omitted from this update.

Baylor: Bryce Petty entered the spring as the likely successor to Nick Florence and cemented his status as the starter with a strong 15 practices. Petty was officially designated as the starting quarterback on Baylor's post-spring depth chart, besting Seth Russell.

Kansas: Jake Heaps transferred from BYU and looks to have easily surpassed Michael Cummings, as expected, with a strong spring, working mostly with the first team. Kansas held its spring game on Saturday and Heaps far outperformed Cummings, tossing four touchdown passes and completing 20 of 28 passes for 257 yards. Not much competition here.

Kansas State: K-State is about halfway through spring, but there's been almost no development (publicly, at least) in the quarterback race. Last year's backup, the speedy Daniel Sams, is helping juco transfer Jake Waters get acquainted, but they're still splitting reps with the first team and I'd be surprised if we see an announcement until fall.

Oklahoma: Bob Stoops doesn't care about establishing a starter heading into summer 7-on-7 drills, but Blake Bell might have taken that out of his hands with a strong performance in the spring game. An endorsement from Landry Jones can't hurt. Bell showed this spring he's more than a BellDozer and made plays with his arm on Saturday, completing 14 of 23 passes for 214 yards and two scores. Stoops hasn't made an official designation, but Bell looks like he's distanced himself from his competition in Trevor Knight and Kendal Thompson.

Oklahoma State: You can find folks anywhere making a case for Clint Chelf, J.W. Walsh or Wes Lunt, but Mike Gundy's opinion is the only one that matters. He says Oklahoma State's starter is Chelf, and Chelf is receiving most of the first-team reps this spring. It's not hard to see that changing, but for now, the job is Chelf's. The rising senior may have to do something to lose it.

TCU: Most assumed Casey Pachall's return to the team meant he'd step back in and reclaim his job. This spring, it hasn't been that easy. He may do exactly that this fall, but Gary Patterson says he's looked rusty after not throwing or lifting from October to January while receiving in-patient treatment for drug and alcohol addiction. Meanwhile, sophomore Trevone Boykin has looked much improved. Patterson says it's still an open competition, the duo is splitting first-team reps and there may not be a decision until fall.

Texas Tech: It doesn't seem like Michael Brewer has a ton of competition on the roster, but Kliff Kingsbury turned some heads when he trotted out Davis Webb to start a recent scrimmage. Brewer still has to earn the job and it's hard to see that not being the case, but for now, this job is still up for grabs.

West Virginia: This one's still wide open. Texas natives Paul Millard and Ford Childress are still splitting first-team reps and there doesn't appear to be much separation just yet. Expect this competition to heat up in the fall. The coaching staff has already said they don't expect to name a starter by the end of spring or even by the beginning of fall camp.

We haven't heard much from ex-Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe lately, who now does some consulting and is working with the new Big East. He joined his permanent replacement, former Stanford athletic director Bob Bowlsby at a panel in front of 200 students at the University of Texas on Wednesday, and both had a few interesting nuggets to share.

Poor Bowlsby was forced to reiterate his stance that the Big 12 was staying at 10 teams, but by far the most interesting thing of the day was Beebe talking about feeling validated once the Big 12 executed the grant of rights. I've long contended that Beebe was the most unfairly maligned persona throughout the realignment saga, and the grant of rights is one of the big reasons why.

Beebe had long campaigned for the grant of rights to secure the Big 12's future, but the league's members could never agree to make it happen. It took Nebraska and Colorado leaving before they seemed to listen to the idea of a grant of rights, which wasn't officially executed until two more teams, Texas A&M and Missouri, left the conference.

"I feel like the conference was driving over a cliff, and they turned the bus around and ran me over," Beebe said.

Ouch. Beebe's biggest negative was either an ignorance of public opinion or a refusal to acknowledge reality when speaking publicly. I felt embarrassed for him when he told me in August 2011 that he disagreed with an A&M official that told me about "60 percent" of the A&M fan base would support a move to the SEC. Truth be told, the A&M official's estimate was probably quite conservative. Still, the biggest problems that led to the Big 12's forced metamorphosis predated Beebe, and he worked to change them. Expanding wasn't the answer until the league was trimmed to just eight teams. The perception that the Big 12 was "reactive, not proactive" is overly simplistic and not really true. Beebe worked hard to keep the league together behind the scenes.

Bowlsby was also asked about paying student-athletes a "cost of attendance" stipend, and he's in favor, but only if it's for all athletes. I'd agree with that sentiment, but I also believe football and basketball players should be paid. In that same breath, I also recognize that there's no simple or realistic way to make that happen and keep the situation relatively fair in both sports, so you won't see me campaigning for it.

Really interesting stuff, but for folks hoping the Big 12 reaches out and poaches a few more Big East members or some programs from the ACC in the future, Bowlsby doesn't sound very interested.

"Engulf and devour doesn’t work,” he said, adding that it was a "zero-sum game."

I do think once the playoff arrives, the Big 12 will seriously reassess where it sits in the expansion discussion, but don't expect any real talk about expansion until then, and only if the Big 12 somehow finds itself at a competitive disadvantage with 10 teams in the post-playoff college football world.

My compatriot over at the Pac-12 blog, Ted Miller, took a look at his conference's turnover data over the past three years earlier this month, and it's always an entertaining exercise.

How has the Big 12 looked the past three seasons?

Baylor's biggest help is it's at least broken even in every season since 2010.

Iowa State broke even in 2012, but still managed to reach a bowl game in 2011 despite having a minus-11 in turnover margin. The most ironic stat was that the Cyclones were plus-6 in 2010, the only season Iowa State failed to reach a bowl under Rhoads. Crazy.

Kansas hasn't had a positive turnover margin at any point over the last three seasons, which isn't a huge surprise with just six wins over that span. KU hasn't turned the ball over a ton throughout that stretch, but the defense hasn't been able to force enough to break even. It had just 12 back in 2010, but forced 20 last season.

Conversely, Kansas State's been well into the positive in every season, including a crazy plus-20 last season, plus-12 in 2011 and plus-4 in 2010. It's no surprise that K-State has won double digit games in the same seasons that K-State had a double-digit positive turnover margin.

Oklahoma has been in the negative in each of the past two seasons, but its overall mark is positive because of a plus-14 in 2010. Guess what? It's also the last time the Sooners won an outright Big 12 title.

Oklahoma State has the reputation as the Big 12's best in this stat, but a tough 2012 campaign means Kansas State took the Big 12 title for turnover margin over the past three years. Oklahoma State's +21 season in 2011 is the best single-season mark of any Big 12 team over that span. But the team had issues with turnovers and didn't force many in 2012. Oklahoma State broke even last season, but considering how often the lack of forced turnovers came up, that's telling of how good OSU has been in that stat lately.

TCU has been in the positive with single digits every season, but two of those came in the Mountain West Conference, so take that into account.

Texas' minus-7 overall looks worse than it really is. That 2010 disaster that featured 17 Garrett Gilbert interceptions meant a minus-12 number for the Longhorns. That had them ahead of just three teams in college football in that stat that season. It broke even in turnovers in 2011 and was plus-5 last season.

Oh, Texas Tech. How in the world did the Red Raiders win eight games in 2012 with a minus-13 turnover margin? That's even with a much-improved defense. That's the single worse mark of any team in the Big 12 over the past three seasons, but it was near breaking even in both 2011 and 2010 with very poor defenses.

West Virginia hasn't had a big standout season, but managed a plus-7 last year in its first turn through the Big 12.

Here are the total rankings:

Total turnover margin (2010-2012 seasons)

• Kansas State: +36
• Oklahoma State: +33
• TCU: +14
• Oklahoma: +8
• Baylor: +7
• West Virginia: +3
• Iowa State: -5
• Texas: -7
• Texas Tech: -15
• Kansas: -16

Six Big 12 teams are in the black in the stat over the past three years, but Kansas State and Oklahoma State are in a league of their own in the last few years. We've seen the results on the field with both logging Big 12 titles and a double-digit win season in the last three years. TCU's been solid, but I'm betting that number is inflated a bit with lesser competition and lots of games against overmatched opponents forced to throw the ball late in games.

Texas Tech's slide hasn't been solely chalked up to turnovers, but you know it hasn't helped. I'd say the exact same about Texas. Iowa State has overachieved in the past few years, but how much better could it be if it starts forcing a few more turnovers and committing a few less?

Athlon Sports ranked all 125 coaches heading into 2013, and that includes the 10 coaches in the Big 12. First on the list is no surprise and won't get any argument from me.

Kansas State's Bill Snyder checked in at No. 3, behind only Alabama's Nick Saban and Ohio State's Urban Meyer.

"As long as Snyder roams the sidelines in Manhattan, regardless of how many starters Kansas State loses, never count out the Wildcats from the Big 12 title discussion," writes Steve Lassan.

Well said. That'll be put to the test this season. Only eight starters return from last year's Big 12 title team, more than only three teams in college football.

Oklahoma's Bob Stoops showed up at No. 7 on the list, just three spots ahead of TCU's Gary Patterson, at No. 10.

"The Kansas native had no FBS head coaching experience when he was promoted at TCU in 2000 but has eight seasons of 10 or more wins, including a 13-0 mark in 2010," Lassan notes.

You can't deny the growth Art Briles has developed at Baylor, and he's at No. 13 on the list after taking the Bears to three consecutive bowl games for the first time in school history. Things look like they're only getting better in Waco, too.

It's a little surprising to see him two spots ahead of Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy at No. 15, but you could make the case either way. Briles' job was infinitely harder than Gundy's, but you can't argue with Gundy's Big 12 title ring, the Pokes' first in about three decades.

Texas' Mack Brown is all the way down at No. 28. The past three seasons have taken their toll on his national reputation, no doubt. It's been quite a slide for the Longhorns.

"The Longhorns have the talent to win the Big 12 title in 2013. If Texas fails to surpass its 2012 win total (nine), there will be plenty of calls for a coaching change in Austin," Lassan writes.

I definitely agree with that. Huge season waiting in Austin.

Paul Rhoads is at No. 38, 10 spots lower. His reputation perhaps exceeds the actual on-field results, but his degree of difficulty in this league is probably even greater than what Briles faces. Briles at least has the advantage of being close to big-time talent in Central Texas. Rhoads' talent pool in Iowa is a lot different, and convincing guys to come north isn't easy.

Dana Holgorsen showed up at No. 50, which definitely seems low, but when you've only been a head coach for two seasons and have a five-game losing streak in one of them, you surrender some right to argue your status, I'd say. He's got a conference title and a BCS bowl win, but winning the Big East won't impress too many folks.

Kliff Kingsbury is down at No. 66, which is where I'd say all first-year coaches belong to start. Any new first-time coach has potential, but they haven't proven to be great or poor yet. Put 'em in the middle, I say.

Lassan has Charlie Weis at No. 106 after his 1-11 campaign at KU last season.

Here's the full list:

• No. 3: Bill Snyder, Kansas State
• No. 7: Bob Stoops, Oklahoma
• No. 10: Gary Patterson, TCU
• No. 13: Art Briles, Baylor
• No. 15: Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State
• No. 28: Mack Brown, Texas
• No. 38: Paul Rhoads, Iowa State
• No. 50: Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia
• No. 66: Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech
• No. 106: Charlie Weis, Kansas

That gives the Big 12 half of its coaches in the top 15. Not bad.