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Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Accuracy of post-spring power rankings?

By David Ubben

If you pay attention to this blog, you've surely seen our Big 12 post-spring power rankings for 2013. But seven months later at the end of the Big 12's regular season, how accurate do they end up being? During the season, power rankings are more of an exercise in taking the temperature of every team in the league, but before the season, they're more of a prediction.

So how have we done on the blog in the past two seasons? How accurate are the predictions? Let's take a look back. BAYLOR
Nice run for the Bears, who have slightly exceeded my expectations in each of the past two seasons.

I hear a lot from Iowa State fans about how much I underrate the program, and I do rarely pick them to reach bowl games, but the program is still struggling to really climb the Big 12 standings ladder.

None of those are difficult selections that required much thought. The talent gap between Kansas and the rest of the Big 12 has been large since the end of 2009.

K-State fans can feel confident that their team can exceed my expectations once again, but I still get tired of hearing about how "the media" picked K-State sixth before last season. In my season predictions, I actually had K-State tied for second in the league, and wrote at length about how the media's preseason poll was absurd.

The Sooners were the national preseason No. 1 back in 2011, and that 10-win season was hardly satisfying, especially since it ended in the Insight Bowl. We'll see how they handle the lower expectations this time around.

I didn't remember picking OSU as low as I did last year, but the top half of the league was loaded. Really impressive run from the Pokes. Good luck outdoing my expectations in 2013, Cowboys.

Texas hasn't lived up to their standards for their own program lately, but if nothing else, I haven't been guilty of overrating the Horns.

Brutal final season in the Big 12  for the Aggies, who led by double digits in 12 of their 13 games, but Mike Sherman's exit ushered in a pretty magical 2012 SEC debut. Kevin Sumlin inherited a program in really good shape.

Still crazy that TCU was able to hold it together last season without quarterback Casey Pachall and being forced to play so many young players. Seventy percent of the depth chart were sophomores or younger.

Tech's been all over the map, but that 2011 season was a bit of an aberration for a program with a lot of talent and firepower. Tech's the most likely team to exceed my pick this season.


I thought West Virginia would handle the transition very well in Year 1 and hit some lean years as it adjusted to the Big 12 in the big picture. The latter is looking true for now, but that former prediction crashed and burned with a five-game losing streak last season.