Colleges: Bryce Petty
Biggest breakout star: Bryce Petty. The Bears' quarterback is an unknown for now, but he's learned a proven system under great coaches and great quarterbacks. This spring, he never let his competition come close to making it real quarterback battle in Waco. Despite windy conditions, he capped the spring with 181 yards and two touchdowns on 13-of-15 passing. Don't be surprised if he hangs similar stat lines in a first half or two next year.
Biggest flip-flop: Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy. Midway through the spring, Gundy offered some real clarity on his quarterback situation, which ended with Clint Chelf carrying the Cowboys through bowl practices and a lopsided win in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. "Clint Chelf is our starter, he takes all the reps with the ones right now. The other guys compete out there, but I don't necessarily feel like there's a battle out there to start in the first game," Gundy said. A week later, though, he said the Pokes "haven't necessarily said anything about the [starter for the] first game of the season." He says they won't be offering any updates on the QB situation until after the season opener against Mississippi State and Chelf is off-limits to media, along with his competition, sophomores J.W. Walsh and Wes Lunt.
AP Photo/Chris BernacchiWill Jordan Thompson's spring translate into big-time production this fall for WVU?Biggest surprise: TCU's quarterback indecision. Many assumed that Casey Pachall's return to the Horned Frogs meant Trevone Boykin's days as the starting quarterback were over, or at least on hold for another season. After 15 practices this spring, however, that hasn't been the case just yet. Coach Gary Patterson says Boykin's made big strides since the end of the season and Pachall looked rusty after not working out or throwing while he was in treatment for drug and alcohol addiction. More than a few folks are skeptical of Patterson's insistence that the competition is still open, but we'll know for sure when TCU opens against LSU.
Most to prove: Jake Heaps and Kansas. KU's Big 12 losing streak now stands at 21 games, and Heaps is looking like a much better passer than Dayne Crist was at this time last year. Charlie Weis is also stocking his roster with tons of juco talent, which could mean a quick turnaround. Will it, though? KU needs to get back to respectability and fast, but winning that first Big 12 game won't be easy.
Best new uniforms: Baylor and West Virginia. West Virginia had a ballyhooed debut before its spring game with three sets of white, blue and Old Gold pants, jerseys and helmets, giving WVU 27 possible combinations. The numbers on the jerseys are also inspired by miners' pick axes. Baylor also debuted new jerseys, highlighted by an all gold chrome helmet and most importantly, the elimination of a cartoonish bear claw mark on the pants.
2012 record: 8-5
2012 Big 12 record: 4-5
Returning starters: Offense: 6; defense: 7; kicker/punter: 1
Top returners: OL Cyril Richardson, RB Lache Seastrunk, S Ahmad Dixon, WR Tevin Reese, LB Eddie Lackey, DE Chris McAllister, LB Bryce Hager, K Aaron Jones
Key losses: WR Terrance Williams, QB Nick Florence, WR Lanear Sampson, S Mike Hicks, C Ivory Wade, DT Gary Mason Jr.
2012 statistical leaders (*returners)
Passing: Nick Florence (4,309 yards)
Rushing: Lache Seastrunk* (1,012 yards)
Receiving: Terrance Williams (1,832 yards)
Tackles: Bryce Hager* (124)
Sacks: Chris McAllister* (6)
Interceptions: Eddie Lackey* (4)
Spring answers:
1. Bryce is the guy. It was going to take a lot for Bryce Petty to lose his starting spot, but he looked like a guy who suited up for his fourth spring this year and cemented his status as the heir apparent to a crazy-good quarterback tradition under Art Briles. He'll follow Robert Griffin III and Florence, who both set school records for passing yards.
2. Defense changes its identity. The Bears didn't have a ton of speed in the secondary last season, and as a result, relied heavily on zone and didn't play a lot of tight coverage. To start fixing the problem, Dixon moved back to traditional safety, and as the defense's most physically skilled talent, that was a wise decision. Baylor wants to play more man and play tighter this year, and we'll see if it pays off in the fall.
3. Offense finds its playmakers. Williams is gone and so is Sampson, two of the team's top three receivers. Reese returns, but Antwan Goodley and Jay Lee emerged to win starting spots this spring, and both look like big-time targets for one of college football's best offenses. Count on those guys and Clay Fuller to keep the tradition going.
Fall questions
1. Can the defense prove itself? The Bears were definitely one of the best defenses in the Big 12 over the last month of the season. The same unit, however, was also a big reason why Baylor limped to an 0-5 start in conference 12 play before ripping off four wins to end the season. The defensive line should be improved and young talents like Javonte Magee and Shawn Oakman could make names for themselves this fall.
2. Is the offensive line deep enough? Baylor's history under Briles at this position makes me pretty confident, and the Bears have a solid starting five. But losing Troy Baker this spring is a big knock, and the Bears only had 10 healthy offensive linemen this spring. Come fall, more injuries could force the Bears to force inexperienced players into the rotation. This was probably the biggest concern for Briles all spring.
3. Just how good is Petty? He looks good for now, and was productive and impressive during the spring. That's also the spring. RG3 and Florence broke school records for passing yards in consecutive seasons, though, so the bar is sky-high. There's every reason to believe in Petty, but expectations are high and reaching them won't be easy. The good news is he has a huge talent in Seastrunk and a solid receiving corps around him to support his efforts.
Updating the Big 12 spring QB races
Note: Because they have clear, incumbent starters, Iowa State and Texas have been omitted from this update.
Jerome Miron/USA TODAY SportsAs expected, Bryce Petty has locked down Baylor's starting QB job. Kansas: Jake Heaps transferred from BYU and looks to have easily surpassed Michael Cummings, as expected, with a strong spring, working mostly with the first team. Kansas held its spring game on Saturday and Heaps far outperformed Cummings, tossing four touchdown passes and completing 20 of 28 passes for 257 yards. Not much competition here.
Kansas State: K-State is about halfway through spring, but there's been almost no development (publicly, at least) in the quarterback race. Last year's backup, the speedy Daniel Sams, is helping juco transfer Jake Waters get acquainted, but they're still splitting reps with the first team and I'd be surprised if we see an announcement until fall.
Oklahoma: Bob Stoops doesn't care about establishing a starter heading into summer 7-on-7 drills, but Blake Bell might have taken that out of his hands with a strong performance in the spring game. An endorsement from Landry Jones can't hurt. Bell showed this spring he's more than a BellDozer and made plays with his arm on Saturday, completing 14 of 23 passes for 214 yards and two scores. Stoops hasn't made an official designation, but Bell looks like he's distanced himself from his competition in Trevor Knight and Kendal Thompson.
Oklahoma State: You can find folks anywhere making a case for Clint Chelf, J.W. Walsh or Wes Lunt, but Mike Gundy's opinion is the only one that matters. He says Oklahoma State's starter is Chelf, and Chelf is receiving most of the first-team reps this spring. It's not hard to see that changing, but for now, the job is Chelf's. The rising senior may have to do something to lose it.
TCU: Most assumed Casey Pachall's return to the team meant he'd step back in and reclaim his job. This spring, it hasn't been that easy. He may do exactly that this fall, but Gary Patterson says he's looked rusty after not throwing or lifting from October to January while receiving in-patient treatment for drug and alcohol addiction. Meanwhile, sophomore Trevone Boykin has looked much improved. Patterson says it's still an open competition, the duo is splitting first-team reps and there may not be a decision until fall.
Texas Tech: It doesn't seem like Michael Brewer has a ton of competition on the roster, but Kliff Kingsbury turned some heads when he trotted out Davis Webb to start a recent scrimmage. Brewer still has to earn the job and it's hard to see that not being the case, but for now, this job is still up for grabs.
West Virginia: This one's still wide open. Texas natives Paul Millard and Ford Childress are still splitting first-team reps and there doesn't appear to be much separation just yet. Expect this competition to heat up in the fall. The coaching staff has already said they don't expect to name a starter by the end of spring or even by the beginning of fall camp.
Time for Baylor's Petty to prove it's his time
Nick Florence's redemption from a rough start in 2012 to knocking off No. 1 Kansas State followed Robert Griffin III's two nights in 2011 that left a mark on college football: Firing deep balls to knock off TCU and Oklahoma on the way to Baylor's first Heisman trophy.
Before that, he and an NFL-bound Kevin Kolb led Houston from an 0-11 squad to a Conference USA championship. Kolb was the conference's Offensive Player of the Year that season. In 2007, he kickstarted Case Keenum's career with an eight-win season. Keenum developed into the FBS all-time leader in touchdown passes while Briles got to work building Baylor's program.
Jerome Miron/USA TODAY SportsProjected starter Bryce Petty is the next quarterback project for Baylor coach Art Briles. "His skill set is off the charts," Briles said.
"He’s Tim Tebow," running back Lache Seastrunk added, "He's like 6-foot-5, 245 pounds!"
Well, more like 6-3 and 231 according to Briles, but you might get a similar scouting report from opposing linebackers soon if Petty gets his way, but more on that later. The skill set Briles refers to is an NFL-quality arm and 4.6 speed with four years of experience in an offensive system that has seen Baylor ranked No. 2 nationally in total offense each of the past two seasons, and No. 13 back in 2010.
"Physically, he has a chance to be a very dominant quarterback, but it’s a very mental game, so what you have to do is match it all together, your physicalness and your intellectualness and creativeness and instinctiveness," Briles said. "It all has to come together."
For now, Briles draws a blank when he thinks back on Petty's greatest moments at Baylor. That might change very soon.
"That moment hasn’t come," Briles said. "That chapter hasn’t been written, and that’s good. It hasn’t been his time. It’s his time to prove it’s his time."
Petty's road to Baylor came after a commitment to Tennessee followed by a coaching change by the Vols from Phil Fulmer to the in-and-out tenure of Lane Kiffin, whose arrival spelled trouble for Petty's future in Knoxville. Before long, Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery, who had recruited Petty throughout, came calling with a Baylor logo on his shirt.
"It was so cool, because (Briles) reminded me so much of coach Fulmer in that he’s a player’s coach. He wants to be here with you," Petty said. "Succeed on the field and as a man. That’s huge for me."
Once Petty was at Baylor, he watched Griffin win a Heisman. Then last season Petty watched as another experienced backup like himself, Florence, broke Griffin's school record for passing yards and kept Baylor near the top of the national rankings for offense.
The waiting wasn't easy. It wasn't fun.
"As a competitor, it’s hard to sit and watch. You know you can do it. Griff, he won the Heisman. It’s faith. It’s knowing that God has a plan. That plan is coming through right now," Petty said. "You have to be able to seize your opportunity."
That opportunity brings with it mammoth expectations, too.
"No dropoff from Robert. No dropoff from Nick. We have to stay strong at that position," Briles said of his quarterbacks.
Briles says there was no learning curve -- as expected -- for a passer starting his fourth spring in Waco, even though it was his first spring working almost exclusively with the first team. He's not a new face to anyone on the team, and that has paid off as Petty has tried to cement his status as a leader.
" Getting guys to fight for you, at the end of the day, is what it takes to win. You can be as athletically gifted as Griff, but you’ve got to have guys fight for you. That’s something that I want from my guys," Petty said.
How has he approached that goal?
"Being the first one in and last one out. Always watching film and being on your guard. That just comes with an every-day kind of process," he said. "This whole starting thing and this whole season is not a one-day thing. It’s a process. It’s an every-day thing. I’d like to think of myself as a hard worker. It’s no struggle for me to get up out of bed and work."
We can't know until the fall whether or not Petty will be the next great quarterback under Briles or a forgettable chapter of Bears history. The last season in Floyd Casey Stadium will be Petty's first as the Bears' starter, though that status isn't official yet.
It's not hard to see it being a memorable season in Waco.
That's not hard to believe when he's dropping insight like this:
AP Photo/Charlie NeibergallBaylor WR Levi Norwood has impressed his teammates during spring workouts.Ahmad Dixon: John, I'm going to have to say Shawn Oakman. He's helped us out a lot. He slows down the perimeter run a lot. A lot of those bubble passes and short throws, he's able to knock those down because of his length. He can get off the ball and get a lot of sacks. He gives us a speed rush and his speed gets in the backfield and length to cut off the outside. He's been the most impressive of anybody I've watched. (For receivers) I would have to say Levi Norwood. His ability to come out of his breaks are tremendous. He has great hips. He's not the fastest guy, but he has great stop/start speed .That makes you have to work on coming with balance and not coming downhill and just biting on his first move. When you guard Levi, it makes you learn how to be patient.
Great stuff from Ahmad. Here's a few more thoughts from my day with the Bears:
- The one thing that jumped out to me in seeing them and being around the Bears all day was the confidence of everybody. I think last year really did show a lot of people around the league that Baylor's program was more than just RG III, and if there were any folks inside the program who doubted that, there aren't any more. There's just sort of a different feel around practice than there was last spring, and even back when Griffin was in the mix. I've gone to spring and fall practices probably five or six times at Baylor, but this one felt a lot different. You build toward titles in small steps in college football. One or two players won't do it. Baylor's talent level is steadily rising. I don't know if I see transcendent talents like RG III or Kendall Wright on this team, but on the whole, there's a lot more talent in a lot more spots than there has been for a long time at Baylor. That's the biggest thing that jumped off the page at me in spending two hours watching them work out. Offensively, I didn't see a huge difference from Baylor in the past, but on defense, there is clearly more speed. There is more instinct and football IQ, and there is not much griping from coaches about guys being out of position or being lost on plays. I saw very, very little of that. Who knows how much of that will carry over, but the defensive resurgence we saw late in 2012 was far above the moderate resurgence we saw at the end of 2011.
- Art Briles' biggest concern about his team is definitely his offensive line. Losing Troy Baker to an ACL injury last week only made that worse, and necessitated adjustments. "We were a little light in the O-line to start with. We only had 10 scholarship O-linemen," Briles said. "That's kind of made us readjust some positions, but the defense has really done well. We've got eight of those guys back."
- You'll be able to read a whole lot more about quarterback Bryce Petty in the future on the blog from my extensive sit-down with him and Briles, but Petty divulged that his source of transportation around campus these days is a moped. That was news to Briles, but it doesn't sound like he's too nervous about his starting quarterback zipping around Waco on two wheels, though I might be if I were Briles. "I'm glad it's not a Harley," Briles said.
- As for practice, I saw a more mature version of the physically gifted Petty I watched in practices on previous visits to Waco. I thought he was ready to be a Big 12 starter last year, and maybe could have even started for a few teams back in 2011. Now that he's nearing the end of his fourth spring on campus, he definitely looks far more polished than any of the other quarterbacks on Baylor's roster. I mentioned this in the live blog on Tuesday, but I asked Briles what Petty would have to do to lose this job. He thought about it awhile and said it would take a long string of mistakes and not taking care of the ball. "I don't anticipate that happening," Briles said. Me either.
- Plenty more Baylor coverage to come soon, so sit tight. Hope you guys enjoyed the live blog, though. If you want more in-depth coverage of my practice observations, you can find it there.
Some aren't buying Baylor as a Cinderella
The 2013 schedule sets up Baylor for success early in the season, but the readers are absolutely not buying Baylor's chances as a Big 12 title contender.
The votes are in, and 64 percent of readers say Baylor is a Big 12 title "pretender," compared to just 36 percent of you who could see the Bears truly contending come fall.
I'd say the odds are definitely in favor of the former group, but it wouldn't really shock me to see Baylor make a run. The defense is experienced and made huge strides late in the season, much bigger than the baby steps it took to help fuel that six-game winning streak at the end of 2011.
If that can continue and the offense can find a few receivers to help Bryce Petty look like the quarterback Art Briles and Baylor believe he is, the Bears have a recipe for some major success in 2013.
As far as factors outside of the Bears' control, I see one major helper and one major deterrent to their true chances. The biggest help is the Big 12 is wide open yet again this season. It looked that way last season, too, so you never know. But back in 2011, Baylor was chasing a national title contender who fell victim to a late-season upset. That was the case again in 2012, but it's hard to see any Big 12 team truly eyeing a 12-0 record in 2013. Two losses might be enough to win a share of the Big 12 this season. Getting to 7-2 in conference play won't be easy, but it's a lot more realistic when you think about it in those terms rather than expecting Baylor to go 9-0 in order to win the league.
The biggest thing working against them, though? In consecutive weeks, the Bears have to go on the road to face the two teams I project as the Big 12's best this season: Oklahoma State and TCU. Cap that off with one final game at Floyd Casey Stadium against Texas before opening their new stadium on the banks of the Brazos, and you have a heck of a finish to the season.
Can Baylor make it happen and make history? The fans say no, but fortunately for the Bears, they'll have the last word on whether the answer is "yes" or "no."
Is Baylor a Big 12 contender or pretender?
What about a team from a little bit off the beaten trail? Let's take a look at a team that might be more of a sleeper in the title race this year, but a team that definitely believes it can win after finishing the season with the Big 12's longest winning streak in each of the past two seasons.
Yep, I'm talking about the Baylor Bears, who won their last four games of 2012, highlighted by a beatdown of BCS No. 1 Kansas State and UCLA in the Holiday Bowl.
This year, coach Art Briles' eye for offensive talent will be put to the test again as he tries to replace quarterback Nick Florence and receivers Lanear Sampson and Terrance Williams, a Biletnikoff Award finalist who led the nation in receiving yards.
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The defense has been the biggest problem for the Bears, but any Big 12 title talk will have to hinge on it being better in Year 3 under Phil Bennett at defensive coordinator. Linebackers Eddie Lackey and Bryce Hager had big years and safety Ahmad Dixon will try to cap a good career as a senior leader in 2013. Is the unit good enough to help Baylor win a title?
Cast your vote and we'll see if readers are giving Baylor a fighting chance this upcoming year.
Baylor figuring out its new identity
If Saturday's scrimmage is any indication, Briles is getting ready to reward that faith.
Quarterback Bryce Petty, the likely heir to Robert Griffin III and Nick Florence's throne -- both set the school record for passing yards in consecutive seasons -- completed 22 of 32 passes for 326 yards and a pair of touchdowns with an interception.
He's not officially the starter, and Seth Russell completed 20 of 29 passes for 220 yards.
Still, a pair of receivers had strong days, and the safe bet is you haven't heard of either of them. Sophomore Jay Lee had seven grabs for 111 yards, highlighted by a 50-yard score from Petty.
"It kind of translates from the way he's been working out," Briles told reporters. "He's been exceptional in workouts, exceptional all winter in the weight room in strength and conditioning, and he was exceptional today. It just shows that if you do things right for a long time, pretty soon it pays off for you."
Lee didn't have a catch last season and redshirted in 2011, and Brandon Brown is still looking for his first career catch, too. The former minor league baseball player is a walk-on but caught a game-high eight balls for 116 yards.
Running back Lache Seastrunk broke loose for a 28-yard touchdown run but finished with just 24 yards on six carries.
Ultimately, you've got to be pleased with Petty's progress, and his completion percentage and production have to be encouraging moving forward.
"Every time I get out here, my confidence is growing," Petty told reporters. "Every day is something new, something to get better at, something to grow on. I'm starting from the bottom and trying to work my way up."
Penn State transfer Shawn Oakman, a 6-foot-8, 250-pound sophomore, had two sacks to lead all defenders.
The offense gave up eight sacks, which could mean one of two things: The quarterbacks don't quite feel comfortable making decisions quickly enough just yet, or the pass rush is improving. I'm betting it's a little bit of both, but there's only so much stock you can put in a spring scrimmage.
Earlier in the week, the Bears debuted some pretty sharp-looking uniforms, too. I'm loving these. Here's a look:
I love everything about those, and I'm glad to finally see the terrible bear claw mark gone from the pants, replaced by a more tasteful, subtle bear paw on the shoulder.
Gotta love what's in store for Baylor next season.
Breaking down the Big 12 football bracket
To celebrate, we'll have a little theoretical bracket competition in the Big 12 with next season's teams.
Here's how I'm seeding the league's 10 teams:
- Oklahoma State
- TCU
- Texas
- Oklahoma
- Baylor
- Texas Tech
- Kansas State
- West Virginia
- Iowa State
- Kansas
So, how would a 10-team bracket play out? Here's how I slot it. Feel free to provide your own conclusions in the comments. The Big 12, like this year's NCAA tournament, is wide open. Anything could happen, but assume that these games are played during this week. (Note: Players injured this spring will be included, as will early enrolling freshmen. Freshmen not on campus are not eligible for these games).
Play-in games (at Hutchinson Junior College in Hutchinson, Kansas):
No. 7 Kansas State vs. No. 10 Kansas: KU's got a bit more experience on its side, but experience doesn't mean much in this latest iteration of the Sunflower Showdown. Bill Snyder gets the best of the Jayhawks on the kind of field he knows very, very well. Kansas State 38, Kansas 20
No. 8 West Virginia vs. No. 9 Iowa State: This game was too close for comfort in November, but Iowa State's Sam Richardson makes enough plays to outgun an inexperienced WVU offense and a still-learning defense. West Virginia goes with experience at quarterback in Paul Millard, but the timing is still a bit off. Iowa State 31, West Virginia 30
FIRST ROUND (in the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas)
No. 1 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Kansas State: These two have had some classic battles over the past two years, but OSU quarterback Clint Chelf finishes without a turnover, and that gets the job done. If OSU hadn't thrown an interception against Kansas State in Manhattan last year, the Pokes might have pulled the upset. Cowboys running back Jeremy Smith goes off against Kansas State's new defensive line. Oklahoma State 47, Kansas State 31
No. 2 TCU vs. No. 9 Iowa State: Iowa State beat the heck out of TCU in Fort Worth last year, but that was just days after the Frogs lost quarterback Casey Pachall. Pachall is back, and so is running back Waymon James. Iowa State's green linebackers get bowled over by James' power. TCU 21, Iowa State 13
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 6 Texas Tech: Texas Tech is still searching for its offensive identity, and Texas defensive end Jackson Jeffcoat isn't all about giving the Red Raiders time to do it. The Red Raiders get off to a nice start, though Texas' running game seizes control in the second half. Tech's Michael Brewer hits Jace Amaro for a pair of long gains and finds Eric Ward for the game-winning touchdown in the final seconds. Sounds oddly familiar, no? Texas Tech 31, Texas 27
No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 5 Baylor: Oklahoma's quarterback gets off to a decent start, but Baylor's defense is still red-hot and Baylor's Bryce Petty outguns Oklahoma's Blake Bell in the debut for both quarterbacks. It's a breakout game for redshirt freshman Baylor receiver Jay Lee, too. The Sooners' young defense is caught off guard. Baylor 41, Oklahoma 31
SEMIFINALS (at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas)
No. 1 Oklahoma State vs. No. 5 Baylor: Baylor sprung the upset late in the season, and leads by double digits early in this one before Chelf rallies with a pair of touchdown passes to Charlie Moore and a third to Blake Jackson. The senior is trying to prove he deserves the job permanently, but OSU seals the game with a late score on the ground from J.W. Walsh in the short-yardage formation, overcoming 185 rushing yards from Baylor's Lache Seastrunk. Oklahoma State 44, Baylor 31
No. 2 TCU vs. No. 6 Texas Tech: Texas Tech's offense gets completely suffocated by TCU's defense, and defensive end Devonte Fields makes life tough for Tech's Brewer. Tech can't establish the running game to offset the rush, and TCU's cornerbacks lock down the Red Raiders' screen game, too. Ugly, ugly game to watch. For anyone but TCU fans, anyway. TCU 20, Texas Tech 10
CHAMPIONSHIP (at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas)
No. 1 Oklahoma State vs. No. 2 TCU: Are we allowed to have a Big 12 title game (and semifinals) without Texas or Oklahoma involved? The league's top two squads in my book survived a pair of games to reach the finals, and both teams are solid on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma State's offense is better. TCU's defense is better. Both teams' weaker units are still solid, though. At the end of the game, it's exactly what we wanted to see. Chelf, Smith and Tracy Moore going head to head with Fields and Jason Verrett for the Frogs. OSU has been there before and drives the length of the field before kicker Bobby Stonebraker proves Oklahoma State's edge in the special teams is the difference with a 45-yard, game-winning field goal. Oklahoma State 31, TCU 28
Cue up One Shining Moment!
Tech's Brewer primed for breakout?
If you want to see a breakout player in the Big 12 this spring, look no further than Lubbock, Texas, where new coach Kliff Kingsbury has a talented signal-caller to build his program around in Year 1.
I'm buying sophomore quarterback Michael Brewer as a breakout star this season, and the fans weighed in with a rousing 44 percent of the vote as the biggest spring star in the league. That was 25 percent more than the second-place finisher.
I buy Baylor's Bryce Petty as another breakout star at quarterback, but he received just 19 percent of the vote to come in a distant second. There's a lot of possible breakout guys at quarterback this year, but those are the two I buy most. I like the combination of experience within the program, good pedigree and solid physical skills. We'll see what they have between the ears once they take the field, but those two will have plenty of eyes on them this spring.
Oklahoma defensive end D.J. Ward is still waiting to be officially cleared to practice this spring, but the Oklahoma high school star checked in with 13 percent of the vote.
TCU running back Aaron Green grabbed 12 percent of the vote along with Oklahoma State defensive end Sam Wren. No respect for the lesser-known guys, but they'll get their chance on the field this spring.
Who is the Big 12's spring breakout star?
Vote in our poll.
Michael Brewer, QB, Texas Tech: Brewer earned some spot duty last season and looked good when he got it. We saw what Kliff Kingsbury did with redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M. Manziel is clearly special, but Brewer is more experienced and was more highly recruited. Could this spring be the start of something special for the Austin native?
D.J. Ward, DE, Oklahoma: Ward was the best prospect in Oklahoma last season, and is the nation's No. 137 overall player and No. 12 defensive end. Oklahoma needs a ton of help at defensive end after losing David King from last year's set of DEs, which struggled and ranked just 104th nationally in tackles for loss. Can Ward, a 6-foot-3, 225-pounder, help change that this spring?
Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor: Petty's got a lot of experience in the system and measurables that NFL scouts could be drooling over very soon. Can he grip the starting spot this spring and become the next in a long line of passers for the Quarterback Whisperer, Art Briles? The third-year sophomore checks in at 6-foot-3 and 235 pounds and has a huge arm. I've loved what I've seen from him in my Waco visits, and he'll have to prove he can be a good decision-maker and productive this spring.
Sam Wren, DE, Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State needs help on the defensive line, too, after losing three seniors at end from last year's team. Wren is a Texas native from junior college in Arizona who ranks as the nation's No. 16 overall juco prospect. He could offer an immediate solution at 6-foot-3 and 255 pounds for the Cowboys, who find themselves in a similar spot as the Sooners in terms of pass-rushers this spring.
Aaron Green, RB, TCU: Everybody wants to see the shifty Green take the field after transferring from Nebraska. TCU's offensive backfield is crowded with Waymon James and B.J. Catalon, but the same was true of Baylor's backfield this time last year, and we saw the kind of impact that Lache Seastrunk had. Could Green, who signed with the Huskers as the nation's No. 3 running back and No. 11 overall prospect, have a similar impact? He ran for 105 yards and two scores on his 24 carries back in 2011 for Nebraska.
USA TODAY SportsDavid Ash, Bryce Petty and Casey Pachall could be next in the line of elite Big 12 signal-callers. From 2008 to 2011, the Big 12 produced at least one quarterback taken in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. In fact, in those four drafts the Big 12 has had five first-round quarterbacks selected and one in the third round. The 2012 crop of Big 12 quarterbacks -- Collin Klein, Landry Jones, Geno Smith, Nick Florence, heck even Seth Doege -- may not be locks to be first-round picks, but they were prolific in college.
Heading into 2013 it is not that the Big 12’s brightly burning quarterback flame has been extinguished so much as it has been reduced to the size of a pocket lighter. There still might be some talent. But the Big 12, long a passing league, has been left with a collection of quarterbacks who have yet to fully prove their ability or even make it to their senior years. (Well, TCU’s Casey Pachall has but not without a significant interruption that very well could have him sitting on the bench watching Trevone Boykin in 2013.)
With all that in mind here are the top five quarterbacks to who could reignite the flame and carry the torch into 2013.
David Ash, Texas. Yeah, we get it. Flame. Ash. Ha, ha. But on the serious side of things Ash is poised to have a breakout year for Texas. He has started 18 games in his career and finally, after yo-yoing back and forth with Case McCoy, has the full support of the coaching staff. Ash finished 21st nationally in passing efficiency last season and was the highest-rated underclassman in the Big 12 behind Oklahoma State's J.W. Walsh. (Walsh, who is in a quarterback battle, finished fourth in passing efficiency.)
With Texas making the move to a tempo/spread offense, Ash will have more of an opportunity to pile up stats. He is also leading an offense that has nine starters returning.
Wes Lunt or J.W, Walsh, Oklahoma State: Lunt won the starting job last season and proved to be the right selection until he was hurt. Walsh proved to be a very solid starter until he was hurt. Even Clint Chelf proved to be a solid starter and finished with 15 touchdowns versus six interceptions.
Coach Mike Gundy will likely go with either Lunt or Walsh. Walsh brings more of a dual threat to the backfield. Lunt has a bigger arm but he had seven touchdowns and six interceptions in his five starts. Whoever fits into the Oklahoma State system will undoubtedly be one of the top passers in the Big 12 because the offense is constructed to pile up stats.
Bryce Petty, Baylor: OK, he drew a Tim Tebow comparison. Yes, already. Yes, it is only spring. No, they have not started to chisel away at the statue for the Baylor campus just yet. But the materials might have been ordered.
“Bryce is a freak of nature,” running back Lache Seastrunk told the San Antonio Express-News. “His frame, his build and how he throws the ball looks just like Tebow. And when he gets the ball (and runs), he's not going to try to surprise you. He's going to go right at you like a true running back.’’
Petty has only made it into 11 games over the past two seasons, completing 10 of 14 passes for 140 yards. But given what Art Briles has been able to do with quarterbacks there is little doubt his numbers will explode this season. He probably will not be able to keep with the stats posted by RG3 and Florence. But Briles is optimistic about what Petty brings to the game.
"He has everything you're looking for -- size, strength, passion, energy, a great arm and great intelligence,’’ Briles told the Express-News.
Michael Brewer, Texas Tech: Brewer knows the spread and ran it successfully in high school under current Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris. He comes from a family that has a strong football background with his grandfather and dad played quarterback at Texas. Plus he is working with a coach, Kliff Kingsbury, who turned Johnny Manziel into Johnny Football in one season. While Tech doesn’t have near the talent that Texas A&M and Manziel had in 2012 -- the Red Raiders also lost receiver Darrin Moore -- it will have some of the same looks that tend to confuse plodding defenses.
Casey Pachall, TCU: Pachall is not guaranteed the starting spot. After he was removed from the program due to a drug and alcohol problem in 2012, Boykin was able to steer TCU to upset wins over Baylor, West Virginia and Texas. He also kept the Horned Frogs close against Oklahoma and Michigan State. But Pachall, who rejoined the team in January, was prolific in his time under center for TCU. In the first four games of 2012 he passed for 948 yards, 10 touchdowns and an interception. He threw for 2,921 yards, 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2011.
Others to watch:
Blake Bell, Oklahoma. He has only thrown 20 career passes but has been around the offense for several years.
Paul Millard, West Virginia. WVU coach Dana Holgorsen has not had to break in a new quarterback since his first year at Houston in 2008. So this could get interesting.
Jake Heaps, Kansas. Last year’s heralded transfer, Dayne Crist, was a bust. Heaps was able to sit and learn for a year. It could help him understand the genius that is Charlie Weis.
Jake Walters, Kansas State. He was the top player in junior college in 2012 but might split time with sophomore Daniel Sams.
Schedule: The first of Baylor's practices will be today, concluding with a spring game in Waco on April 6. The Bears usually hold a controlled scrimmage at the practice field as part of a day-long festival, rather than a game at Floyd Casey Stadium.
What's new: Not a whole lot beyond the loss of skill position talent, which is welcome news for the Bears. There weren't any staff changes for Baylor this offseason, and we'll talk a bit more later about the factors that could make Baylor a dangerous team carrying the Big 12's longest winning streak (four games) into the 2013 season. No one else in the league has a streak of more than one game.
New faces: Baylor is welcoming four players onto the practice field this spring as early enrollees from its 2013 recruiting class. Junior college transfer Gus Penning brings some size to the tight end spot at 6-foot-5 and 245 yards, and he's joined by quarterback Chris Johnson, the nation's No. 5 dual-threat passer. Receiver Kiante' Griffin and linebacker Brian Nance are also suiting up this spring.
Getting defensive: This is Year 3 under Phil Bennett, but we saw some major, major improvement late in 2012. The Bears had a similar jump in 2011, but it didn't stick through 2012. The pieces are in place with guys like Chris McAllister, Bryce Hager, Eddie Lackey and Ahmad Dixon, but every time I visit Waco in the spring, the defense gets worked over. We may get an idea of their progress this spring in scrimmages and workouts. Progress has to happen now if Baylor's ever going to take the leap to Big 12 title contender.
Question marks: Does Baylor have enough firepower at receiver to keep its offense rolling? We'll talk about quarterbacks later, but the Bears lose Terrance Williams and Lanear Sampson, and I don't necessarily buy Tevin Reese as a ton more than a deep threat who stretches the field. Can guys like Levi Norwood or Antwan Goodley become big threats underneath? Look out for tight ends Jordan Najvar and Jerod Monk to play a bigger role in the offense, too. They've got tons of experience.
Breaking out: LT Spencer Drango. He had a great first season on Baylor's offensive line, but look out for the former blue-chip recruit to start looking like one of the Big 12's best offensive linemen alongside Cyril Richardson. He's already solid, but he may blossom into a star this offseason.
Much to prove: RB Lache Seastrunk. He turned heads and produced headlines when he predicted he'd win the Heisman next season, but Baylor's got a solid group of backs and we'll see how he handles the bulk of the first-team reps and the attention that comes with his bold proclamation. He's got the skills to back it up, but it'll be interesting to see what kind of tone he strikes in interviews this spring.
All eyes on: QB Bryce Petty. If Baylor's going to continue this run, it simply has to be excellent at quarterback. I'm not ready to completely write off Seth Russell, but I love what I've seen from Petty in my visits to practice in Waco the past couple springs. He's got a big, NFL-quarterback body at 6-foot-3 and 235 pounds, and a big arm, but decision-making and ability to move the offense is something you can't tell until it's time to take over the team. That time is now for Petty.
Offseason to-do list: Baylor Bears
1. Shore up the defense. Baylor saw some major growth late in the season, beginning with an eye-popping dominant performance against Kansas State. Phil Bennett's defense brings back a lot of talent from last year's team in linebackers Eddie Lackey and Bryce Hager, as well as talented safety Ahmad Dixon and defensive lineman Chris McAllister. The pieces are in place for some growth that would help Baylor make a lot more noise than it did in last year's eight-win season. You know about the offense, but developing and improving the defense over the offseason will be huge for this team's hopes in 2013.
2. Figure out what it has at quarterback. I think there's tons of promise ahead of Bryce Petty, but you never quite know for sure. You can't quite count out Seth Russell, who hailed from the same town as Nick Florence, but I'd be very surprised if Petty isn't clearly the guy once spring hits full speed. The bar is really high, though, after the last two seasons have seen Baylor's school record for passing yards fall. What can Petty do? What in this offense suits him best? How much do Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin need to carry the load while the junior gets used to handling this high-powered offense? Baylor needs to get a feel for that during the spring.
3. Find some help for Tevin Reese. Baylor's never had a shortage of weapons in this offense, but it needs to find some guys to fill in. The receivers aren't quite ready-made to step into a prime role like Terrance Williams was from 2011 to 2012. Reese is speedy, but he needs more help from the receivers underneath and in the intermediate routes in this offense. Baylor needs to find weapons, but incoming freshman Robbie Rhodes may make an impact come fall, too.
More offseason to-do lists:
The biggest Big 12 offseason storylines
1. Can Casey Pachall get back on track? TCU's quarterback is officially back with the team after leaving school to go to an in-patient drug and alcohol treatment facility. Most people want to know if he'll be the same player, but what's even more important is whether he can avoid the same pitfalls and get his life back on track.
2. Expansion junction, what's your function? The odds seem strongly against it, but you know we're not getting through a college football offseason without talking expansion at some point. How much will it heat up? Will Florida State re-emerge as a Big 12 candidate?
AP Photo/Darren AbateArt Briles, left, has done a great job developing quarterbacks at Houston and at Baylor. 4. Striking the fear back in Lubbock. Kliff Kingsbury is looking to bring swagger back to Lubbock. He's still piecing together his staff, but the 33-year-old has the pieces to put together a solid team on the field, too. Can Texas Tech break the string of late-season collapses the past two years?
5. Charlie Weis' juco revolution. Weis has made it clear that he wants quick fixes and to win now at KU. Will his juco recruiting haul do it? Defensive lineman Marquel Combs was the nation's No. 1 juco recruit, and Weis has done a heck of a job selling immediate playing time to these guys. The current recruiting class has 17 juco transfers among 25 commits. Will it pay off, and how will these guys look once they get on campus? Are wins just around the corner?
6. A quarterback competition for the ages. Was Oklahoma State the first team ever to have three 1,000-yard passers? Two of them were freshmen, too. The QB derby last spring was good. This year's will be even better, with all three showing they could win games in Big 12 play. Clint Chelf will have the inside track, but Wes Lunt and J.W. Walsh will try to swipe it away. Could one transfer be imminent after the spring?
7. Are the Longhorns finally, officially, certifiably back? Texas looked like it was back after going up to Stillwater and winning a dramatic game that helped the Longhorns ascend to No. 11 in the polls. Then consecutive losses capped by a Red River Blowout made it obvious the Horns weren't quite back yet. David Ash's development and fixing Manny Diaz's surprisingly vulnerable defense will decide whether 2013 is the season Texas returns to the BCS stage.
8. What about the championship game? Bob Bowlsby turned some heads when he inquired with the NCAA about a waiver to hold a championship game with just 10 teams. I don't think there's much fire around that smoke, but how serious will any talk of a return of the Big 12 title game get? The coaches would hate it.
103.3 FM ESPN PODCASTS
Play Podcast Baylor head coach Art Briles joins Fitzsimmons & Durrett to discuss what kind of player the Cowboys are getting in Terrance Williams.
Play Podcast Arlington and Texas A&M product Luke Joeckel, the potential No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft, joins Ian Fitzsimmons and Richard Durrett to discuss the draft, coaches and advice from his dad.
Play Podcast Florida Gulf Coast athletic director Ken Kavanagh joins Fitzsimmons & Durrett to discuss his school's Cinderella story and playing in the Sweet 16 at Cowboys Stadium.
Play Podcast Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby joins Fizsimmons & Durrett to discuss Cowboys Stadium as a venue, the state of Big 12 basketball, the new 2014 college football format, why there's no hurry to have a Big 12 football championship and much more.
Play Podcast Jay Bilas joins Fitzsimmons and Durrett to discuss the remaining 16 teams in the NCAA tournament, the intrigue surrounding the Northwest Region and the excitement over FGCU, even though a similar story happens every year.
Play Podcast Landry Locker tells Fitzsimmons and Durrett why Manti Te'o would be a perfect for the Cowboys, why Dez Bryant should never strive to be a leader and discusses the major mismatch on display at AAC on Tuesday night.
Play Podcast Brett McMurphy joins Fitzsimmons & Durrett to discuss college football's national championship game coming to Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.
Play Podcast Calvin Watkins joins Fitzsimmons & Durrett from the Texas Longhorns' pro day to discuss potential Cowboys draft pick Kenny Vaccaro, Vince Young and if any other pro prospects stood out.



