Colleges: Casey Pachall
Biggest breakout star: Bryce Petty. The Bears' quarterback is an unknown for now, but he's learned a proven system under great coaches and great quarterbacks. This spring, he never let his competition come close to making it real quarterback battle in Waco. Despite windy conditions, he capped the spring with 181 yards and two touchdowns on 13-of-15 passing. Don't be surprised if he hangs similar stat lines in a first half or two next year.
Biggest flip-flop: Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy. Midway through the spring, Gundy offered some real clarity on his quarterback situation, which ended with Clint Chelf carrying the Cowboys through bowl practices and a lopsided win in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. "Clint Chelf is our starter, he takes all the reps with the ones right now. The other guys compete out there, but I don't necessarily feel like there's a battle out there to start in the first game," Gundy said. A week later, though, he said the Pokes "haven't necessarily said anything about the [starter for the] first game of the season." He says they won't be offering any updates on the QB situation until after the season opener against Mississippi State and Chelf is off-limits to media, along with his competition, sophomores J.W. Walsh and Wes Lunt.
AP Photo/Chris BernacchiWill Jordan Thompson's spring translate into big-time production this fall for WVU?Biggest surprise: TCU's quarterback indecision. Many assumed that Casey Pachall's return to the Horned Frogs meant Trevone Boykin's days as the starting quarterback were over, or at least on hold for another season. After 15 practices this spring, however, that hasn't been the case just yet. Coach Gary Patterson says Boykin's made big strides since the end of the season and Pachall looked rusty after not working out or throwing while he was in treatment for drug and alcohol addiction. More than a few folks are skeptical of Patterson's insistence that the competition is still open, but we'll know for sure when TCU opens against LSU.
Most to prove: Jake Heaps and Kansas. KU's Big 12 losing streak now stands at 21 games, and Heaps is looking like a much better passer than Dayne Crist was at this time last year. Charlie Weis is also stocking his roster with tons of juco talent, which could mean a quick turnaround. Will it, though? KU needs to get back to respectability and fast, but winning that first Big 12 game won't be easy.
Best new uniforms: Baylor and West Virginia. West Virginia had a ballyhooed debut before its spring game with three sets of white, blue and Old Gold pants, jerseys and helmets, giving WVU 27 possible combinations. The numbers on the jerseys are also inspired by miners' pick axes. Baylor also debuted new jerseys, highlighted by an all gold chrome helmet and most importantly, the elimination of a cartoonish bear claw mark on the pants.
2012 record: 7-6
2012 Big 12 record: 4-5
Returning starters: Offense: 6; defense: 9; kicker/punter: 2
Top returners: DE Devonte Fields, CB Jason Verrett, WR Brandon Carter, S Sam Carter, S Elisha Olabode, RB Waymon James, K Jaden Oberkrom, RB B.J. Catalon
Key losses: WR Josh Boyce, LB Kenny Cain, DE Stansly Maponga, C James Fry, OG Blaize Foltz, RB Matthew Tucker, WR Skye Dawson
2012 statistical leaders (*returners)
Passing: Trevone Boykin* (2,054 yards)
Rushing: B.J. Catalon* (584 yards)
Receiving: Josh Boyce (891 yards)
Tackles: Kenny Cain (86)
Sacks: Devonte Fields* (10)
Interceptions: Jason Verrett* (6)
Spring answers
1. Offensive line getting straightened out. James Fry and Blaize Foltz were big losses on the interior of the offensive line, and replacing them was a big concern for the Frogs' quiet spring. The spring ended with senior Eric Tausch atop the depth chart at center and sophomore Jamelle Naff winning the right guard job to replace Foltz. Tausch started at left guard last season and moved over, but sophomore Joey Hunt slid up to replace him. Neither Naff nor Hunt have much experience (Hunt earned his lone career start in a loss to Iowa State), but they'll be leaned on this season.
2. New targets acquired. Josh Boyce and Skye Dawson took their talents to the next level, leaving the Frogs in search of a pair of new starters. LaDarius Brown and Brandon Carter were sure things, but strong springs helped fellow juniors Cam White and David Porter win starting jobs at receiver. There aren't many open gigs for a team returning 15 starters, but that's one that will have a big impact.
3. Mallet dropping the hammer. Junior Marcus Mallet emerged late last season and finished with five tackles for loss and a forced fumble among his 18 stops. Now, he looks like the likely candidate to replace departed Kenny Cain and a possible breakout talent on a loaded TCU defense. The 6-foot-1, 216-pounder finished atop the depth chart after a good spring.
Fall questions
1. Is Casey Pachall back to his old self? It's probably safe to operate under the assumption that Pachall will win his job back in fall camp, but beating out Trevone Boykin isn't the same as leading the Big 12 in passing efficiency, like he was last year before his DUI arrest that ended his season. You don't win a Big 12 title with average quarterback play, which brings me to my next question.
2. Can TCU really handle a Big 12 schedule? TCU was competitive last year, sure, and only had one game that it wasn't competitive in. But TCU's not trying to be competitive. It didn't come to the Big 12 to do that. It came to win, and it's proven exactly nothing in that realm just yet. Managing a difficult week-to-week schedule is one thing. Winning just about every week is another. Ask K-State's 2012 team and Oklahoma State's 2011 squad how easy that is.
3. Is the defense for real? On paper, this unit should be absolutely dominant after finishing No. 1 in the Big 12 in total defense and returning nine starters, including Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Devonte Fields at defensive end. That sounds like Texas' defense from last year, who fell off the map and allowed more rushing yards than any team in school history. Sometimes, you just never really know. This is a new season and last year means nothing. Prove it again.
Schedule analysis: TCU Horned Frogs
Full schedule:
- Aug. 31: vs. LSU at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas
- Sept. 7: SE Louisiana
- Sept. 12: at Texas Tech
- Sept. 28: SMU
- Oct. 5: at Oklahoma
- Oct. 12: Kansas
- Oct. 19: at Oklahoma State
- Oct. 26: Texas
- Nov. 2: West Virginia
- Nov. 9: at Iowa State
- Nov. 16: at Kansas State
- Nov. 30: Baylor
Gut check game: at Texas Tech. Tech will be a bit of a wild card this season, and win or lose that game against LSU, the Frogs will have to validate themselves in a tough road atmosphere in the first big game of the Kliff Kingsbury Era. Believe me, Tech is no doubt good enough to beat TCU, though the Frogs did play very well on the road last season. It's also got a tinge of revenge to it, too. The Red Raiders beat the Frogs in triple overtime last season. Lose this game, and regardless of what happens in that LSU game, the Frogs' balloon will be pretty deflated.
Chance to impress: at Oklahoma. Gary Patterson went and beat Oklahoma in Norman before it was cool and everybody was doing it. Until 2011, only two coaches had ever done it. Patterson's been joined by Brian Kelly, Bill Snyder and Tommy Tuberville in the past two seasons, but this season is different. TCU's not trying to pull an upset. It's trying to walk into Oklahoma and gain an edge in the Big 12 title race by proving it's definitively better than the Sooners. That's new territory for the Frogs, and no doubt: If TCU wins this game, they'll impress and be forced to be taken seriously as a real Big 12 title contender.
Eyeing revenge: at Oklahoma State. For one, TCU will have to fight through more than just the Sooners to win a Big 12 title but last year's 27-0 second half in Stillwater was the low point of TCU's season, and the biggest disappointment for Patterson's team last year. Thanks to a scheduling quirk, the Frogs have to make a return trip to Oklahoma State, but this game will have a big impact on the Big 12 title race and winning it would mean a whole lot to TCU.
Upset watch: at Kansas State. If TCU does hang on and is in the thick of the Big 12 title hunt, the late-season trip to K-State will be a difficult one for a team that's never easy to beat. Add to that a frenzied road atmosphere and the pressure of badly needing a win and everything that a title would mean to the program, and it's going to be a bumpy road for the 11th game and the final road game of the season for the Frogs.
Final analysis: TCU gets the favorable five home games in conference play and goes on the road four times, though two of those road games are against contenders Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. That makes the road to the Big 12 title look a bit more uphill. Granted, this is the same team that didn't win a Big 12 game at home last season, so maybe that's not quite a good thing. The middle of the season is where it all will go down for the Frogs, playing the league's three other top teams sandwiched around a home date in October against Kansas, who actually gave the Frogs some issues last season, thanks to turnover problems. That was with Pachall on the field, too. That stretch will decide if TCU's Big 12 title dreams are pipe dreams or if they'll become reality.
The Big 12's new spot in post-spring Top 25
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Schlabach has Texas as the Big 12's top team at No. 13.
"(Mack) Brown also believes UT's defense, which ranked 73rd nationally in scoring defense (29.2 points per game) last season, will be more equipped to defend hurry-up offenses after seeing one in practice every day," Schlabach writes.
Maybe Texas ends up winning the league, but that defense has to show me something more and the offense has to be more consistent before I really believe the league's best team is the Longhorns. Two spots later, my Big 12 favorite, Oklahoma State, makes its appearance.
"(Defensive coordinator Glenn) Spencer inherits an experienced defense -- 13 of the top 27 players on the defensive depth chart are seniors," Schlabach writes.
Good points there, and one that gets overlooked. It'll pay off for the Pokes, who actually moved up five spots from No. 20 since Schlabach's last update. Texas had moved up one spot, from No. 14.
Oklahoma, though, is at No. 17, down two spots from the last update.
"The Sooners have to settle on a starting quarterback (all signs point to Blake Bell replacing record-setting passer Landry Jones), but their biggest concerns are still on the defensive side of the ball," Schlabach writes. "OU coach Bob Stoops admitted this spring that defensive coordinator Mike Stoops (his brother) might have underestimated the strength of Big 12 offenses in his first season back in the league."
Very interesting revelation from Schlabach there, who made a visit to Norman this spring. I definitely agree about the defense being a bigger issue, but Stoops sounded optimistic last week about the progress of some younger players like Frank Shannon and Cortez Johnson.
The fourth Big 12 team is right at No. 18, down from No. 17. That's my Big 12 No. 2: TCU.
"The Horned Frogs learned plenty while finishing 7-6 in their first season in the Big 12. They know defense is still their strength, after leading the Big 12 in total defense, allowing 323.9 yards per game," he writes.
That's no small accomplishment, especially considering how their fellow Big 12 newcomer, West Virginia, handled the offenses. TCU had to deal with tons of injuries and a whole lot of youth on defense, and still had the league's best defense. Amazing stuff.
Schlabach's much higher on Kansas State than I am, keeping the Wildcats at No. 20 coming off their Big 12 title season.
"Kansas State is renovating Bill Snyder Family Stadium this spring, and the Wildcats' venerable coach is rebuilding his football team, too," he writes.
Certainly seems like we have differing opinions on just how well that rebuilding project will go.
That's quite a logjam, and you can see why the league looks so wide open. That's five Big 12 teams in seven spots from No. 13 to No. 20. There's just not much separation between the league's No. 1 team and No. 7 team. Baylor and Texas Tech won't have to do much to crack the Top 25 this season, but I still see the Big 12 with four major contenders and three teams who could definitely get in the mix.
Patterson prepared Pachall's path back
Gary Patterson's message to Pachall was simple: "We’ve got to change the direction you’re going," TCU's coach told ESPN.com in a recent interview.
During a February 2012 campus drug raid in which four football players were among 17 students arrested, Pachall admitted to police that he smoked marijuana and tried cocaine and ecstasy. Two weeks earlier, he had failed a team-wide drug test, and he shared a residence with linebacker Tanner Brock, who was kicked off the team after he was one of the players arrested in the sting.
Cooper Neill/Getty ImagesCasey Pachall is working to regain his spot as TCU's starting quarterback.By October, the Frogs were 4-0 and in the top 15 and Pachall led the nation in quarterback rating. An October drunken driving arrest made it clear, however, that Pachall's substance abuse issues were not behind him.
"We really didn’t have a conversation. He didn’t have a choice in the matter. This was what he had to do if he wanted to have a chance to stay in school here," Patterson said. "The biggest thing for me was for him to understand he had hope that, if he did the things he had to do, that he had something to come back to, because playing college football and possibly having a chance to play in the NFL is really important to him."
Pachall was off the team and left to seek treatment, but Patterson made it clear in a news conference in the days that followed that if Pachall completed the program and left his supervisors and sponsors satisfied, he would still have a spot on the team.
"There were those who said I shouldn’t do anything, just suspend him a couple games. There were those who said you should get rid of him," Patterson said. "In this case, looking at all the information I had, I think this was one of those where we needed to help a young man out, not just because he’d been our starting quarterback. He’s not the first, nor will he be the last, that’s given help to. He just happens to be the most publicized."
Patterson didn't have much contact with Pachall during his in-patient treatment, but quarterbacks coach and co-offensive coordinator Rusty Burns kept in touch with his quarterback, who stopped by to see Patterson after leaving in-patient care and beginning outpatient treatment.
"I’ve tried to lend support when needed but really tried to make sure you didn’t show or give him any weaknesses in the fences," Patterson said. "He has to fight his own demons."
By January, Pachall had completed his treatment and re-enrolled at TCU, rejoining the team for workouts and working toward regaining both his teammates' trust and his spot as the team's starting quarterback, ahead of Trevone Boykin, who filled in for Pachall over the season's final nine games.
Amid skepticism from just about everyone, Patterson maintains that the competition is close.
"He’s doing well in class and football, but you can tell he hasn’t thrown a football in a while. But he’s going to keep getting stronger," Patterson said. "For him, it’s now getting back in it, getting your arm stronger, catch up to the speed of the game. The other thing, he left and finds some new people to work with. Him and Josh [Boyce] were kind of an item and now Josh is not here, so he’s got to find who he throws to later on. Trevone already has a feel for that."
Patterson laid out the payoff for Pachall if he could change the direction of his life. To this point, Pachall has held up his end. His journey, however, is only beginning. For anyone who has battled addiction, the fight to stay away from the vices that previously restrained him is never ending.
The two haven't spoken about Pachall's time in treatment, and for Patterson, there's no guarantee that Pachall's struggles are permanently behind him. The focus, though, remains in the present.
"The biggest thing is he understands there are a lot of people paying attention, so he’s got to make sure he walks a straight line," Patterson said. "He’s been doing the right things, and you just take it one day at a time. I don’t think he’s any different than any other person who’s dealt with this."
Updating the Big 12 spring QB races
Note: Because they have clear, incumbent starters, Iowa State and Texas have been omitted from this update.
Jerome Miron/USA TODAY SportsAs expected, Bryce Petty has locked down Baylor's starting QB job. Kansas: Jake Heaps transferred from BYU and looks to have easily surpassed Michael Cummings, as expected, with a strong spring, working mostly with the first team. Kansas held its spring game on Saturday and Heaps far outperformed Cummings, tossing four touchdown passes and completing 20 of 28 passes for 257 yards. Not much competition here.
Kansas State: K-State is about halfway through spring, but there's been almost no development (publicly, at least) in the quarterback race. Last year's backup, the speedy Daniel Sams, is helping juco transfer Jake Waters get acquainted, but they're still splitting reps with the first team and I'd be surprised if we see an announcement until fall.
Oklahoma: Bob Stoops doesn't care about establishing a starter heading into summer 7-on-7 drills, but Blake Bell might have taken that out of his hands with a strong performance in the spring game. An endorsement from Landry Jones can't hurt. Bell showed this spring he's more than a BellDozer and made plays with his arm on Saturday, completing 14 of 23 passes for 214 yards and two scores. Stoops hasn't made an official designation, but Bell looks like he's distanced himself from his competition in Trevor Knight and Kendal Thompson.
Oklahoma State: You can find folks anywhere making a case for Clint Chelf, J.W. Walsh or Wes Lunt, but Mike Gundy's opinion is the only one that matters. He says Oklahoma State's starter is Chelf, and Chelf is receiving most of the first-team reps this spring. It's not hard to see that changing, but for now, the job is Chelf's. The rising senior may have to do something to lose it.
TCU: Most assumed Casey Pachall's return to the team meant he'd step back in and reclaim his job. This spring, it hasn't been that easy. He may do exactly that this fall, but Gary Patterson says he's looked rusty after not throwing or lifting from October to January while receiving in-patient treatment for drug and alcohol addiction. Meanwhile, sophomore Trevone Boykin has looked much improved. Patterson says it's still an open competition, the duo is splitting first-team reps and there may not be a decision until fall.
Texas Tech: It doesn't seem like Michael Brewer has a ton of competition on the roster, but Kliff Kingsbury turned some heads when he trotted out Davis Webb to start a recent scrimmage. Brewer still has to earn the job and it's hard to see that not being the case, but for now, this job is still up for grabs.
West Virginia: This one's still wide open. Texas natives Paul Millard and Ford Childress are still splitting first-team reps and there doesn't appear to be much separation just yet. Expect this competition to heat up in the fall. The coaching staff has already said they don't expect to name a starter by the end of spring or even by the beginning of fall camp.
Is the quarterback competition at TCU real?
When he left the team to seek treatment for drug and alcohol addiction following a DUI arrest last October, he was the nation's leader in passer rating, but this spring, he hasn't just been handed the job that backup Trevone Boykin fought for over the final two-thirds of 2012.
"Trevone is way ahead of where he was because of what he played," Frogs coach Gary Patterson told ESPN.com in a recent interview.
Before becoming the starting quarterback upon Pachall's abrupt exit, Boykin spent time working at running back. Days later, he made his first start in a lopsided home loss to Iowa State. The redshirt freshman wasn't ready, but tough lessons he clearly learned over the rest of the season have paid off this spring. Meanwhile ...
"Casey’s rusty, so I’d say we probably won’t be able to know anything about who that guy will be until we get into fall practice," Patterson said.
Patterson has expressed similar sentiments before, but it's almost always met with strong skepticism, words masquerading as a motivational ploy to keep Pachall working or a cover to prevent Patterson from appearing like a coach who's handing a troubled player his old job back without him earning it.
TCU's practiced are closed tighter than about any in the Big 12, so the number of people who know how that race truly looks is minimal, but is it really all that hard to believe that Patterson's not blowing smoke?
Pachall didn't throw a football or lift from October to January while he was in treatment, and re-joined the team as the semester began, but practices didn't begin until March. That's a long time without playing the game at full speed, and we saw Boykin make great strides late in the season as a passer.
Pachall's ceiling is significantly higher, but it's also entirely possible that the time away put a major dent in Pachall's mastery of the offense and his own throwing mechanics.
Call me crazy, but I buy what Patterson is selling at this point in the spring about Boykin and Pachall being very close, close enough to cause some debate about who the starter will be.
Will time working over the summer with his receivers in 7-on-7 change that, along with more practices in fall camp? I'm sure Patterson hopes so, and I expect that to be the case. For now, though, I don't believe Patterson is blowing smoke about who TCU's best quarterback is at this exact moment.
Respect earned, despite TCU's struggles
You may ask yourself, "Well, how did I get here?" ...
And you may tell yourself, "This is not my talented stable of running backs"
And you may tell yourself, "This is not my accurate, experienced QB"
It was a rough season for the Frogs in purple, especially for a coach like Patterson who had won fewer than seven games in a season just once since 2002, his second season as the full-time head man in Fort Worth. TCU struggled through more injuries than any team in the Big 12 last season, and lost six games, capped by a heartbreaker in a bowl game it dominated for more than three quarters.
It won just seven games, but a funny thing happened the end of a season that felt exhausting from a weekly grind in a new Big 12 the Frogs had longed for since being left outside of major conference football following the breakup of the Southwest Conference in the mid-90s.
"I think we gained a lot more respect fan-wise from being 7-5 than a being 11-2 beating Boise State at Boise State, which to me is an unbelievable win," Patterson told ESPN.com in a recent interview. "To me, that speaks volumes to where we’re at and I think our kids should to understand that, what we’re doing."
John Rieger/US PresswireGary Patterson's Horned Frogs faced plenty of adversity last season but fielded a competitive team."Everybody was wondering how we could handle things on a week to week basis, and I thought we, except for one half of football against Oklahoma State, we felt like we were in every ball game that you had," Patterson said.
Four players were kicked off the team following a campus drug sting in January, including star linebacker Tanner Brock and a pair of other likely starters.
The Frogs left 2011 planning on having three backs in 2012 who ran for at least 700 yards, but Ed Wesley left the team after spring practice and Waymon James missed the final 11 games after injuring his knee in the Frogs' Big 12 opener against Kansas in Week 2.
Quarterback Casey Pachall, then the nation's leader in passer rating, left the team less than three weeks later to seek inpatient treatment for drug and alcohol addiction in the wake of a DUI arrest.
Defensive end Ross Forrest, who had six tackles for loss, suffered a shoulder injury in fall camp and fellow end Stansly Maponga battled an ankle and foot injury for much of the season, missing two games.
Matthew Tucker, the lone running back left with major experience, played through an ankle injury of his own, missing just one game.
Still, the Frogs battled on, losing a three-overtime heartbreaker to Texas Tech and losing to Big 12 co-champion Oklahoma after a possible game-winning touchdown pass was batted down as time expired to help the Sooners clinch their eighth title since 2000.
"I’ve been through 7-5 seasons before, and a couple plays here or there and, now you could have just as easily been 5-7, but you could have won 9 or 10, too, so how do you make up the little things?"
That's the challenge ahead for the Frogs, who look fit to contend for a Big 12 title in 2013 behind a defense that finished No. 1 in the league in total defense despite injuries and being forced to rely on more freshmen than ever before under Patterson. Pachall's back, too, battling to regain his job from Trevone Boykin.
Being competitive isn't good enough anymore. TCU's not out for respect anymore. It's time to start hunting trophies, preferably of the crystal bowl variety with the Big 12 logo etched on it.
"We’re not into moral victories. We’ve played well against those teams in the past, the key is to be able to recruit depth," Patterson said. "We’ve got to keep getting better at every position."
Year 1 was certainly one of the most difficult for Patterson, who took over the TCU job back in 2000. It won't get much easier in a deep Big 12 in 2013, but this time around, the Frogs would love it if the offseason isn't littered with personnel losses.
"You’ve got to come with it every week in our league," Patterson said. "As far as I’m concerned, you wouldn’t want any different."
Poll results: The people believe in TCU
Our readers, however, are much more sold on the prospects of TCU, which went 7-6 in its first year in the Big 12, despite suffering more personnel losses and injuries than any team in the league. In our poll, 55 percent of you say TCU is a Big 12 title contender. Just 45 percent voted for "pretender."
For me, I take that as a vote of confidence in quarterback Casey Pachall. Trevone Boykin gave some fantastic effort as a redshirt freshman who wasn't quite ready to step into the role of starter, but I don't really buy TCU's title chances with him at the helm in 2013. With Pachall, I do.
The defense? It's easy to believe in them as the league's best. They were the league's No. 1 defense a year ago with a bunch of freshmen and sophomores all over the place, and return two of the league's impact players on that side of the ball: Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Devonte Fields at defensive end, and Jason Verrett at cornerback.
Honestly, I'm a little surprised at the poll results. I'm definitely a believer in TCU's chances, but from the time the Frogs made their new conference union official, I've sensed a ton of skepticism from the league's fans about TCU's program proving itself as one of the Big 12's best.
Considering how the vote went, it looks like that first year in the Big 12, despite the average finish in the win-loss column, really did make an impression.
Spring steps forward: TCU Horned Frogs
Let's move on with TCU.
TCU's spring steps forward: WR Brandon Carter
I do feel bad for great receivers who get stuck with inaccurate or inexperienced quarterbacks. That was the case for Carter and Josh Boyce a year ago when Casey Pachall left the team and the Frogs had no choice but to turn to Trevone Boykin, who was more suited to make plays with his feet than string together bunches of completions and move the chains consistently.
Pachall is back, but Boyce is gone, and that means opportunity for Carter. TCU's running game is solid, but you've got to be able to sling it in the Big 12 to light up scoreboards and, consequently, win with consistency. Carter showed big-play ability last year, and the ability to snag one-handed catches in unlikely situations. He's got to be even more for TCU's offense this year after catching 36 balls for 590 yards and six scores. He needs to step forward this spring and prove his worth as a big-time receiver. If TCU doesn't have a 1,000-1,500-yard receiver this season, it's not going to win a Big 12 title. LaDarius Brown is a solid player, and so is Cam White, but Carter's third year on the field awaits this fall, and the time is now for him to make good on the potential he's shown over the first half of his career at TCU. He's the guy in TCU's passing game next year -- if only because he has to be. If Boyce had returned for his senior season, the Frogs offense had the potential to look very scary. For now, it's just very good. Without Carter stepping up and crossing quadruple digits in receiving next season, it'll be tough to call TCU's offense anything close to very good.
See more Big 12 spring steps forward.
Breaking down the Big 12 football bracket
To celebrate, we'll have a little theoretical bracket competition in the Big 12 with next season's teams.
Here's how I'm seeding the league's 10 teams:
- Oklahoma State
- TCU
- Texas
- Oklahoma
- Baylor
- Texas Tech
- Kansas State
- West Virginia
- Iowa State
- Kansas
So, how would a 10-team bracket play out? Here's how I slot it. Feel free to provide your own conclusions in the comments. The Big 12, like this year's NCAA tournament, is wide open. Anything could happen, but assume that these games are played during this week. (Note: Players injured this spring will be included, as will early enrolling freshmen. Freshmen not on campus are not eligible for these games).
Play-in games (at Hutchinson Junior College in Hutchinson, Kansas):
No. 7 Kansas State vs. No. 10 Kansas: KU's got a bit more experience on its side, but experience doesn't mean much in this latest iteration of the Sunflower Showdown. Bill Snyder gets the best of the Jayhawks on the kind of field he knows very, very well. Kansas State 38, Kansas 20
No. 8 West Virginia vs. No. 9 Iowa State: This game was too close for comfort in November, but Iowa State's Sam Richardson makes enough plays to outgun an inexperienced WVU offense and a still-learning defense. West Virginia goes with experience at quarterback in Paul Millard, but the timing is still a bit off. Iowa State 31, West Virginia 30
FIRST ROUND (in the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas)
No. 1 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Kansas State: These two have had some classic battles over the past two years, but OSU quarterback Clint Chelf finishes without a turnover, and that gets the job done. If OSU hadn't thrown an interception against Kansas State in Manhattan last year, the Pokes might have pulled the upset. Cowboys running back Jeremy Smith goes off against Kansas State's new defensive line. Oklahoma State 47, Kansas State 31
No. 2 TCU vs. No. 9 Iowa State: Iowa State beat the heck out of TCU in Fort Worth last year, but that was just days after the Frogs lost quarterback Casey Pachall. Pachall is back, and so is running back Waymon James. Iowa State's green linebackers get bowled over by James' power. TCU 21, Iowa State 13
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 6 Texas Tech: Texas Tech is still searching for its offensive identity, and Texas defensive end Jackson Jeffcoat isn't all about giving the Red Raiders time to do it. The Red Raiders get off to a nice start, though Texas' running game seizes control in the second half. Tech's Michael Brewer hits Jace Amaro for a pair of long gains and finds Eric Ward for the game-winning touchdown in the final seconds. Sounds oddly familiar, no? Texas Tech 31, Texas 27
No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 5 Baylor: Oklahoma's quarterback gets off to a decent start, but Baylor's defense is still red-hot and Baylor's Bryce Petty outguns Oklahoma's Blake Bell in the debut for both quarterbacks. It's a breakout game for redshirt freshman Baylor receiver Jay Lee, too. The Sooners' young defense is caught off guard. Baylor 41, Oklahoma 31
SEMIFINALS (at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas)
No. 1 Oklahoma State vs. No. 5 Baylor: Baylor sprung the upset late in the season, and leads by double digits early in this one before Chelf rallies with a pair of touchdown passes to Charlie Moore and a third to Blake Jackson. The senior is trying to prove he deserves the job permanently, but OSU seals the game with a late score on the ground from J.W. Walsh in the short-yardage formation, overcoming 185 rushing yards from Baylor's Lache Seastrunk. Oklahoma State 44, Baylor 31
No. 2 TCU vs. No. 6 Texas Tech: Texas Tech's offense gets completely suffocated by TCU's defense, and defensive end Devonte Fields makes life tough for Tech's Brewer. Tech can't establish the running game to offset the rush, and TCU's cornerbacks lock down the Red Raiders' screen game, too. Ugly, ugly game to watch. For anyone but TCU fans, anyway. TCU 20, Texas Tech 10
CHAMPIONSHIP (at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas)
No. 1 Oklahoma State vs. No. 2 TCU: Are we allowed to have a Big 12 title game (and semifinals) without Texas or Oklahoma involved? The league's top two squads in my book survived a pair of games to reach the finals, and both teams are solid on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma State's offense is better. TCU's defense is better. Both teams' weaker units are still solid, though. At the end of the game, it's exactly what we wanted to see. Chelf, Smith and Tracy Moore going head to head with Fields and Jason Verrett for the Frogs. OSU has been there before and drives the length of the field before kicker Bobby Stonebraker proves Oklahoma State's edge in the special teams is the difference with a 45-yard, game-winning field goal. Oklahoma State 31, TCU 28
Cue up One Shining Moment!
TCU a Big 12 title contender or pretender?
So what happens in Year 2? Do you buy that a Big 12 title is in reach? Vote in our poll whether you believe TCU has a real chance or not. With Casey Pachall back on the field and back in practice, hopes are certainly high, but the Frogs' biggest asset is the Big 12's No. 1 offense from 2012 that returns nine starters.
Pachall still has to officially beat out Trevone Boykin, who was streaky but showed some promise filling in for Pachall over the last 2/3 of the 2012 season.
Defensive end Devonte Fields, the AP's Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, highlights the Frogs' hyped defense alongside cornerback Jason Verrett, the league's top shutdown corner from a year ago who led the league with six interceptions and 16 pass breakups. Great secondary play is a must-have in the Big 12, and TCU's got it.
The Frogs have to deal with the loss of receiver Josh Boyce, but the position is still strong with Brandon Carter returning and LaDarius Brown looking ready for an increased role after catching 27 passes for 385 yards and five scores last season.
The running backs will be a strength for the Frogs next season with Waymon James returning from a knee injury and B.J. Catalon and Nebraska transfer Aaron Green providing depth and variety to James' powerful running style.
Will it be enough to truly contend for a Big 12 title for the first time ever? Or are the Frogs a paper tiger bound for disappointment in 2013? Cast your vote. We'll revisit the results later.
USA TODAY SportsDavid Ash, Bryce Petty and Casey Pachall could be next in the line of elite Big 12 signal-callers. From 2008 to 2011, the Big 12 produced at least one quarterback taken in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. In fact, in those four drafts the Big 12 has had five first-round quarterbacks selected and one in the third round. The 2012 crop of Big 12 quarterbacks -- Collin Klein, Landry Jones, Geno Smith, Nick Florence, heck even Seth Doege -- may not be locks to be first-round picks, but they were prolific in college.
Heading into 2013 it is not that the Big 12’s brightly burning quarterback flame has been extinguished so much as it has been reduced to the size of a pocket lighter. There still might be some talent. But the Big 12, long a passing league, has been left with a collection of quarterbacks who have yet to fully prove their ability or even make it to their senior years. (Well, TCU’s Casey Pachall has but not without a significant interruption that very well could have him sitting on the bench watching Trevone Boykin in 2013.)
With all that in mind here are the top five quarterbacks to who could reignite the flame and carry the torch into 2013.
David Ash, Texas. Yeah, we get it. Flame. Ash. Ha, ha. But on the serious side of things Ash is poised to have a breakout year for Texas. He has started 18 games in his career and finally, after yo-yoing back and forth with Case McCoy, has the full support of the coaching staff. Ash finished 21st nationally in passing efficiency last season and was the highest-rated underclassman in the Big 12 behind Oklahoma State's J.W. Walsh. (Walsh, who is in a quarterback battle, finished fourth in passing efficiency.)
With Texas making the move to a tempo/spread offense, Ash will have more of an opportunity to pile up stats. He is also leading an offense that has nine starters returning.
Wes Lunt or J.W, Walsh, Oklahoma State: Lunt won the starting job last season and proved to be the right selection until he was hurt. Walsh proved to be a very solid starter until he was hurt. Even Clint Chelf proved to be a solid starter and finished with 15 touchdowns versus six interceptions.
Coach Mike Gundy will likely go with either Lunt or Walsh. Walsh brings more of a dual threat to the backfield. Lunt has a bigger arm but he had seven touchdowns and six interceptions in his five starts. Whoever fits into the Oklahoma State system will undoubtedly be one of the top passers in the Big 12 because the offense is constructed to pile up stats.
Bryce Petty, Baylor: OK, he drew a Tim Tebow comparison. Yes, already. Yes, it is only spring. No, they have not started to chisel away at the statue for the Baylor campus just yet. But the materials might have been ordered.
“Bryce is a freak of nature,” running back Lache Seastrunk told the San Antonio Express-News. “His frame, his build and how he throws the ball looks just like Tebow. And when he gets the ball (and runs), he's not going to try to surprise you. He's going to go right at you like a true running back.’’
Petty has only made it into 11 games over the past two seasons, completing 10 of 14 passes for 140 yards. But given what Art Briles has been able to do with quarterbacks there is little doubt his numbers will explode this season. He probably will not be able to keep with the stats posted by RG3 and Florence. But Briles is optimistic about what Petty brings to the game.
"He has everything you're looking for -- size, strength, passion, energy, a great arm and great intelligence,’’ Briles told the Express-News.
Michael Brewer, Texas Tech: Brewer knows the spread and ran it successfully in high school under current Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris. He comes from a family that has a strong football background with his grandfather and dad played quarterback at Texas. Plus he is working with a coach, Kliff Kingsbury, who turned Johnny Manziel into Johnny Football in one season. While Tech doesn’t have near the talent that Texas A&M and Manziel had in 2012 -- the Red Raiders also lost receiver Darrin Moore -- it will have some of the same looks that tend to confuse plodding defenses.
Casey Pachall, TCU: Pachall is not guaranteed the starting spot. After he was removed from the program due to a drug and alcohol problem in 2012, Boykin was able to steer TCU to upset wins over Baylor, West Virginia and Texas. He also kept the Horned Frogs close against Oklahoma and Michigan State. But Pachall, who rejoined the team in January, was prolific in his time under center for TCU. In the first four games of 2012 he passed for 948 yards, 10 touchdowns and an interception. He threw for 2,921 yards, 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2011.
Others to watch:
Blake Bell, Oklahoma. He has only thrown 20 career passes but has been around the offense for several years.
Paul Millard, West Virginia. WVU coach Dana Holgorsen has not had to break in a new quarterback since his first year at Houston in 2008. So this could get interesting.
Jake Heaps, Kansas. Last year’s heralded transfer, Dayne Crist, was a bust. Heaps was able to sit and learn for a year. It could help him understand the genius that is Charlie Weis.
Jake Walters, Kansas State. He was the top player in junior college in 2012 but might split time with sophomore Daniel Sams.
Schedule: The Frogs began spring practice on Friday, which will be the first of 15 NCAA-allowed practices. TCU rarely holds a spring game, and will not hold one this season.
What's new: Very, very little, especially on defense. TCU lost coach Randy Shannon to Arkansas this offseason, but returns 15 starters from last year's seven-win team, second most in the Big 12 (only Texas has more) and 24th nationally. Shannon was replaced by DeMontie Cross, who comes to TCU from Kansas' staff under Charlie Weis. On the field, there are big pieces that must be replaced (defensive end Stansly Maponga and wide receiver Josh Boyce), but the Frogs will largely have the same personnel next season as they had in 2012.
All eyes on: Quarterback Casey Pachall. He's the biggest story of spring in the Big 12 by far. Pachall was one of the Big 12's best at the position a year ago, but left the team after a DUI arrest to seek treatment for drug and alcohol addiction. He's back on the team now and TCU's Big 12 title hopes hinge on him returning to form after time away from the game. He's also going to be watched closely when he's off the field. Will he be able to make the necessary adjustments to make his new lifestyle a permanent, healthy change?
New faces: TCU will be welcoming three early enrollees this spring, headlined by quarterback Zach Allen, the nation's No. 56 pocket passer. He'll be joined by tight end Bryson Burtnett from Springtown, Texas, and Georgia offensive tackle Eason Fromayan. There aren't many immediate contributors in that group, I'd say, but it's always good for freshmen to get a head start in spring practice.
Question marks: We've mentioned this previously, but you can't underestimate the importance of offensive line play in the Big 12. It can make any offense look great, and TCU will have to replace two of its best players on the line in guard Blaize Foltz and center James Fry. Sorting out their replacements will be a primary objective this spring.
Position battle: TCU's running back spot is going to be really strong and intriguing. I expect all the backs to get carries in the fall, Waymon James will be returning from a knee injury and trying to hold off B.J. Catalon to retain his starting position. What people really want to see, though, is Nebraska transfer Aaron Green's debut as an eligible player. He was one of the nation's top 10 prospects in the 2010 recruiting class and sat out last season after coming home to Texas.
Big shoes to fill: TCU Horned Frogs
Big shoes to fill: TCU's offensive line
Big 12 teams have a well-earned reputation for offense, but far too often, the skill position talent gets too much credit and the offensive line gets far too little. A great line can make average skill position talent look great and great skill position talent look legendary, while mediocre or poor offensive line play can make any skill position talent look average or worse. TCU will encounter one of those two next season when it loses guard Blaize Foltz and center James Fry, a pair of solid talents who must be replaced next season. Look for the Frogs to shuffle some experienced players in those slots and play some younger guys at tackle, so this category is a little jumbled, but look for senior John Wooldridge to get a shot to fill in for Foltz at guard. The 310-pounder has been a solid reserve for each of the past three seasons, and has earned a shot to start this season. Foltz's younger brother, Brady Foltz, may earn a shot to start at guard, too. He'll be a sophomore next year and was a solid contributor as a redshirt freshman a year ago. Sophomore Joey Hunt may get a look, too, and will most likely be in the rotation. TCU's defense will earn a lot of ink this offseason, and so will quarterback Casey Pachall, but don't overlook the importance of replacing Fry and Foltz. If TCU does it well, expect much of the rest of the offense to fall into place and look mighty impressive come fall.
More big shoes to fill:
103.3 FM ESPN PODCASTS
Play Podcast Baylor head coach Art Briles joins Fitzsimmons & Durrett to discuss what kind of player the Cowboys are getting in Terrance Williams.
Play Podcast Arlington and Texas A&M product Luke Joeckel, the potential No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft, joins Ian Fitzsimmons and Richard Durrett to discuss the draft, coaches and advice from his dad.
Play Podcast Florida Gulf Coast athletic director Ken Kavanagh joins Fitzsimmons & Durrett to discuss his school's Cinderella story and playing in the Sweet 16 at Cowboys Stadium.
Play Podcast Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby joins Fizsimmons & Durrett to discuss Cowboys Stadium as a venue, the state of Big 12 basketball, the new 2014 college football format, why there's no hurry to have a Big 12 football championship and much more.
Play Podcast Jay Bilas joins Fitzsimmons and Durrett to discuss the remaining 16 teams in the NCAA tournament, the intrigue surrounding the Northwest Region and the excitement over FGCU, even though a similar story happens every year.
Play Podcast Landry Locker tells Fitzsimmons and Durrett why Manti Te'o would be a perfect for the Cowboys, why Dez Bryant should never strive to be a leader and discusses the major mismatch on display at AAC on Tuesday night.
Play Podcast Brett McMurphy joins Fitzsimmons & Durrett to discuss college football's national championship game coming to Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.
Play Podcast Calvin Watkins joins Fitzsimmons & Durrett from the Texas Longhorns' pro day to discuss potential Cowboys draft pick Kenny Vaccaro, Vince Young and if any other pro prospects stood out.



