Colleges: Robert Griffin III

Breaking down Manziel's NFL skill set

May, 2, 2013
May 2
3:44
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Stacy Revere/Getty ImagesWhat parts of Johnny Manziel's game need to improve for him to play in the NFL?
The NFL began to look more like the college game last season with mobile quarterbacks, zone-read options and spread passing attacks. With some work, Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel has the tools to continue the evolution.

Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick transformed the game with their speed and versatility, forcing defenses to adapt to a new style of play.

All three of those quarterbacks were also proficient passers. They each possess four qualities necessary to be a successful quarterback in the NFL: overall accuracy, ability to handle the blitz, downfield precision and composure under duress.

Manziel is skilled in all four categories, but he could improve in each next season to boost his draft stock if he decides to declare for the draft.

Overall accuracy
In 2012, Manziel completed 68 percent of his passes, which ranked ninth among FBS teams. He was at his best on short and intermediate passes, completing more than 76 percent of his throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

One of his greatest strengths was putting the ball in spots that enabled his receivers to run after the catch. Texas A&M ranked sixth among colleges in AQ conferences in yards after the catch, averaging 6.5 yards after the catch per reception.

Ability to handle the blitz
Opponents blitzed Manziel on fewer than 30 percent of his dropbacks last season.

Although Manziel’s completion percentage was significantly lower against the blitz, he exploited blitzing defenses with big plays.

Manziel averaged a play of 20 yards or more once every 6.4 dropbacks when opponents blitzed, compared with once every 8.5 dropbacks when they sent standard pressure.

His biggest plays came when scrambling, with him rushing for 389 yards and seven touchdowns on 32 scrambles against the blitz.

Downfield precision
This is probably the one area Manziel could improve the most. Last season, he completed 38.7 percent of his passes of 20 yards or longer with eight touchdowns and four interceptions.

To put that into perspective, Griffin III, Wilson and Andrew Luck all completed a higher percentage of their passes on throws of this distance in their final year of college.

Manziel can learn from those quarterbacks, who all increased their completion percentages on throws of at least 20 yards downfield in their final college seasons.

Composure under duress
Last season, Manziel completed 51.4 percent of his passes when under duress, about 11 percentage points higher than the FBS average.

He was at his best when forced to improvise. Manziel ran for 857 yards and 10 touchdowns on 86 scramble attempts in 2012. He also threw for 581 yards and eight touchdowns when forced to throw from outside the pocket.

Many question whether this aspect of Manziel’s game will translate to the NFL, given his size and the speed of NFL defenses. At 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, Manziel is small for an NFL quarterback. Of the 49 NFL quarterbacks who attempted at least 30 passes last season, only three were 6-1 or shorter, and only one weighed 200 pounds or less.

In terms of the speed of NFL defenses, Texas A&M faced its share of NFL talent last season; 26 opposing defensive players were taken in the 2013 NFL draft.

Last season against Alabama, the top defense in the nation, Manziel ran for 92 yards. It was the most rushing yards the Crimson Tide had allowed to an opposing quarterback since Nick Saban became Alabama's coach in 2007.

Baylor Bears spring wrap

May, 1, 2013
May 1
11:15
AM CT
video 2012 record: 8-5
2012 Big 12 record: 4-5
Returning starters: Offense: 6; defense: 7; kicker/punter: 1

Top returners: OL Cyril Richardson, RB Lache Seastrunk, S Ahmad Dixon, WR Tevin Reese, LB Eddie Lackey, DE Chris McAllister, LB Bryce Hager, K Aaron Jones

Key losses: WR Terrance Williams, QB Nick Florence, WR Lanear Sampson, S Mike Hicks, C Ivory Wade, DT Gary Mason Jr.

2012 statistical leaders (*returners)

Passing: Nick Florence (4,309 yards)
Rushing: Lache Seastrunk* (1,012 yards)
Receiving: Terrance Williams (1,832 yards)
Tackles: Bryce Hager* (124)
Sacks: Chris McAllister* (6)
Interceptions: Eddie Lackey* (4)

Spring answers:

1. Bryce is the guy. It was going to take a lot for Bryce Petty to lose his starting spot, but he looked like a guy who suited up for his fourth spring this year and cemented his status as the heir apparent to a crazy-good quarterback tradition under Art Briles. He'll follow Robert Griffin III and Florence, who both set school records for passing yards.

2. Defense changes its identity. The Bears didn't have a ton of speed in the secondary last season, and as a result, relied heavily on zone and didn't play a lot of tight coverage. To start fixing the problem, Dixon moved back to traditional safety, and as the defense's most physically skilled talent, that was a wise decision. Baylor wants to play more man and play tighter this year, and we'll see if it pays off in the fall.

3. Offense finds its playmakers. Williams is gone and so is Sampson, two of the team's top three receivers. Reese returns, but Antwan Goodley and Jay Lee emerged to win starting spots this spring, and both look like big-time targets for one of college football's best offenses. Count on those guys and Clay Fuller to keep the tradition going.

Fall questions

1. Can the defense prove itself? The Bears were definitely one of the best defenses in the Big 12 over the last month of the season. The same unit, however, was also a big reason why Baylor limped to an 0-5 start in conference 12 play before ripping off four wins to end the season. The defensive line should be improved and young talents like Javonte Magee and Shawn Oakman could make names for themselves this fall.

2. Is the offensive line deep enough? Baylor's history under Briles at this position makes me pretty confident, and the Bears have a solid starting five. But losing Troy Baker this spring is a big knock, and the Bears only had 10 healthy offensive linemen this spring. Come fall, more injuries could force the Bears to force inexperienced players into the rotation. This was probably the biggest concern for Briles all spring.

3. Just how good is Petty? He looks good for now, and was productive and impressive during the spring. That's also the spring. RG3 and Florence broke school records for passing yards in consecutive seasons, though, so the bar is sky-high. There's every reason to believe in Petty, but expectations are high and reaching them won't be easy. The good news is he has a huge talent in Seastrunk and a solid receiving corps around him to support his efforts.
WACO, Texas -- When Art Briles looks out the back window of his office, he can see the here and now in the immediate foreground: His practice field.

Look a bit further, though, and there's a bunch of red dirt with the beginnings of a promising future sprouting from that dirt. Briles will have a front-row seat for the construction of what's now known as Baylor Stadium, the Bears' new 45,000-seat, $250 million home on the banks of the Brazos River.

"It’s a blessing, definitely. And it’s a reality," Briles told ESPN.com in a recent interview.

Fans can see the construction live, too, with the Bears' new construction cam.

The stadium is expected to open in 2014, and the beginning stages of construction already catch the eyes of the 42 million people who annually will pass by the stadium that will tower over the east side of I-35 in Waco.

"It’s a reality that Baylor didn’t need to have, it had to have, for first of all, national perception, regional perception and for recruiting purposes, not only for our athletics, but for our academics, because it certainly changed 42 million people’s view of Baylor University every time they drive down I-35," Briles said. "They look over there and they say, 'Baylor’s doing it right, all the way across the board.'"

The picturesque venue will feature a bridge across the river to the rest of campus, and based on renderings of the stadium, it will be one of the most scenic in all of college football. Like TCU's new rebuild of Amon G. Carter stadium, Baylor Stadium will include six Founder's suites, but also have 39 more suites, 74 boxes and 1,200 outdoor club seats.

"(People) know it’s a great academic university," Briles said. "I think it just upped peoples image of the university as a whole in their minds, no question."

Most importantly, the new stadium will eliminate the Bears' status as the Big 12's only team without an on-campus stadium. The 2013 season will be Baylor's last at Floyd Casey Stadium, located across I-35 and a few miles southwest of campus. Baylor employed Populous, the same company that helped design Busch Stadium (St. Louis Cardinals), Reliant Stadium (Houston Texans) and the new Yankee Stadium in New York.

Baylor had not been to a bowl since 1994, two year's before the Big 12's creation, and in his first two seasons, Briles equaled Baylor's second-highest win total (4) since 1996. By his third season, the Bears were back in a bowl game. Heading into 2013, the Bears have reached three consecutive bowls for the first time in school history, winning the past two. Briles' efforts were aided by Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III -- Baylor's first -- whose 2011 run to the trophy propelled the Bears onto the national stage, a place quite unfamiliar to the program before the arrival of Briles and Griffin.

More than a few folks would love to see Griffin's and/or Briles' name adorning the stadium or the field. Briles could only laugh at the prospect of the latter.

"I’m not one of those people. Now Robert’s name, I’d love to have," Briles said. "Our story hasn’t been written yet. All we’re concerned with is day-to-day operations of trying to be the best we can be every day."
WACO, Texas -- Art Briles can think back on all the quarterbacks he's pushed and prodded to greatness and recall countless great moments.

Nick Florence's redemption from a rough start in 2012 to knocking off No. 1 Kansas State followed Robert Griffin III's two nights in 2011 that left a mark on college football: Firing deep balls to knock off TCU and Oklahoma on the way to Baylor's first Heisman trophy.

Before that, he and an NFL-bound Kevin Kolb led Houston from an 0-11 squad to a Conference USA championship. Kolb was the conference's Offensive Player of the Year that season. In 2007, he kickstarted Case Keenum's career with an eight-win season. Keenum developed into the FBS all-time leader in touchdown passes while Briles got to work building Baylor's program.

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Bryce Petty
Jerome Miron/USA TODAY SportsProjected starter Bryce Petty is the next quarterback project for Baylor coach Art Briles.
Now, it's 2013, and Briles is getting ready to groom another quarterback, his third in three seasons at Baylor. His name is Bryce Petty, and you might see him zooming around Baylor's Waco campus on a moped, hunching his NFL-quarterback frame over the handlebars.

"His skill set is off the charts," Briles said.

"He’s Tim Tebow," running back Lache Seastrunk added, "He's like 6-foot-5, 245 pounds!"

Well, more like 6-3 and 231 according to Briles, but you might get a similar scouting report from opposing linebackers soon if Petty gets his way, but more on that later. The skill set Briles refers to is an NFL-quality arm and 4.6 speed with four years of experience in an offensive system that has seen Baylor ranked No. 2 nationally in total offense each of the past two seasons, and No. 13 back in 2010.

"Physically, he has a chance to be a very dominant quarterback, but it’s a very mental game, so what you have to do is match it all together, your physicalness and your intellectualness and creativeness and instinctiveness," Briles said. "It all has to come together."

For now, Briles draws a blank when he thinks back on Petty's greatest moments at Baylor. That might change very soon.

"That moment hasn’t come," Briles said. "That chapter hasn’t been written, and that’s good. It hasn’t been his time. It’s his time to prove it’s his time."

Petty's road to Baylor came after a commitment to Tennessee followed by a coaching change by the Vols from Phil Fulmer to the in-and-out tenure of Lane Kiffin, whose arrival spelled trouble for Petty's future in Knoxville. Before long, Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery, who had recruited Petty throughout, came calling with a Baylor logo on his shirt.

"It was so cool, because (Briles) reminded me so much of coach Fulmer in that he’s a player’s coach. He wants to be here with you," Petty said. "Succeed on the field and as a man. That’s huge for me."

Once Petty was at Baylor, he watched Griffin win a Heisman. Then last season Petty watched as another experienced backup like himself, Florence, broke Griffin's school record for passing yards and kept Baylor near the top of the national rankings for offense.

The waiting wasn't easy. It wasn't fun.

"As a competitor, it’s hard to sit and watch. You know you can do it. Griff, he won the Heisman. It’s faith. It’s knowing that God has a plan. That plan is coming through right now," Petty said. "You have to be able to seize your opportunity."

That opportunity brings with it mammoth expectations, too.

"No dropoff from Robert. No dropoff from Nick. We have to stay strong at that position," Briles said of his quarterbacks.

Briles says there was no learning curve -- as expected -- for a passer starting his fourth spring in Waco, even though it was his first spring working almost exclusively with the first team. He's not a new face to anyone on the team, and that has paid off as Petty has tried to cement his status as a leader.

" Getting guys to fight for you, at the end of the day, is what it takes to win. You can be as athletically gifted as Griff, but you’ve got to have guys fight for you. That’s something that I want from my guys," Petty said.

How has he approached that goal?

"Being the first one in and last one out. Always watching film and being on your guard. That just comes with an every-day kind of process," he said. "This whole starting thing and this whole season is not a one-day thing. It’s a process. It’s an every-day thing. I’d like to think of myself as a hard worker. It’s no struggle for me to get up out of bed and work."

We can't know until the fall whether or not Petty will be the next great quarterback under Briles or a forgettable chapter of Bears history. The last season in Floyd Casey Stadium will be Petty's first as the Bears' starter, though that status isn't official yet.

It's not hard to see it being a memorable season in Waco.

Baylor figuring out its new identity

March, 25, 2013
Mar 25
11:15
AM CT
Baylor coach Art Briles' track record gives any bystander reason to have faith that despite losing talented receivers like Lanear Sampson and Terrance Williams, the Bears will find others on their roster to fill the void.

If Saturday's scrimmage is any indication, Briles is getting ready to reward that faith.

Quarterback Bryce Petty, the likely heir to Robert Griffin III and Nick Florence's throne -- both set the school record for passing yards in consecutive seasons -- completed 22 of 32 passes for 326 yards and a pair of touchdowns with an interception.

He's not officially the starter, and Seth Russell completed 20 of 29 passes for 220 yards.

Still, a pair of receivers had strong days, and the safe bet is you haven't heard of either of them. Sophomore Jay Lee had seven grabs for 111 yards, highlighted by a 50-yard score from Petty.

"It kind of translates from the way he's been working out," Briles told reporters. "He's been exceptional in workouts, exceptional all winter in the weight room in strength and conditioning, and he was exceptional today. It just shows that if you do things right for a long time, pretty soon it pays off for you."

Lee didn't have a catch last season and redshirted in 2011, and Brandon Brown is still looking for his first career catch, too. The former minor league baseball player is a walk-on but caught a game-high eight balls for 116 yards.

Running back Lache Seastrunk broke loose for a 28-yard touchdown run but finished with just 24 yards on six carries.

Ultimately, you've got to be pleased with Petty's progress, and his completion percentage and production have to be encouraging moving forward.

"Every time I get out here, my confidence is growing," Petty told reporters. "Every day is something new, something to get better at, something to grow on. I'm starting from the bottom and trying to work my way up."

Penn State transfer Shawn Oakman, a 6-foot-8, 250-pound sophomore, had two sacks to lead all defenders.

The offense gave up eight sacks, which could mean one of two things: The quarterbacks don't quite feel comfortable making decisions quickly enough just yet, or the pass rush is improving. I'm betting it's a little bit of both, but there's only so much stock you can put in a spring scrimmage.

Earlier in the week, the Bears debuted some pretty sharp-looking uniforms, too. I'm loving these. Here's a look:
I love everything about those, and I'm glad to finally see the terrible bear claw mark gone from the pants, replaced by a more tasteful, subtle bear paw on the shoulder.

Gotta love what's in store for Baylor next season.
ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper has two Big 12 players -- Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson and Texas’ Kenny Vaccaro -- potentially going in the first round of this year’s NFL draft.

Fellow expert Todd McShay has the same two as Kiper and also is optimistic about the chances of West Virginia’s Geno Smith and Tavon Austin.

So let’s split the difference and label the potential Big 12 first-round picks as an optimistic three, with Johnson being the only absolute first-round lock.

Those three would represent the fewest Big 12 players taken in the first round of the NFL draft since 2008. Even if four went, the Big 12 still would have the fewest since 2008.

That year, only Kansas -- yep, the Jayhawks -- managed a first-rounder, Aqib Talib to Tampa Bay with the 20th pick. In the four drafts that followed, the Big 12 has always put at least five players into the first round, including the first four overall picks in 2010.

How well this year’s group of first-round picks will fare might not be known for years. What is known, though, is how well Big 12 players have done when they are selected in the first round. With that in mind, here is a ranking -- from worst to best -- of the Big 12’s best first-round draft classes over the past 10 years.

2008: It’s all about quantity, and a little bit of quality. In 2008, the Big 12 only produced one first-round pick, Talib. He has not produced dramatic returns in the NFL. In the past two years, he has only started nine games. He was somewhat productive for Tampa Bay in the previous three seasons, starting 41 games and playing in 53. But, again, he was the only Big 12 player taken in the first round in 2008.

2006: Vince Young is working out at Texas’ pro day at the end of March. Enough said. Davin Joseph and Michael Huff have been solid producers. But when the No. 3 overall pick is out of the league and having to work out at his alma mater's pro day, it means it was a bad year for the Big 12 in the first round of the NFL draft.

2004: Tommie Harris and Marcus Tubbs, the two defensive tackles taken in the first round, were productive for a few years, with Harris selected to Pro Bowls in 2005, '06 and ’07 before he was beset by injuries. Tubbs lasted four seasons in the NFL. Roy Williams had 5,715 receiving yards but never lived up to the hype he generated coming out of Texas. Rashaun Woods played only two years and had seven career catches.

2005: The lack of numbers might be what hurts this group the most. Cedric Benson, Jammal Brown, Derrick Johnson, Mark Clayton and Fabian Washington all proved they could play at the NFL level. Benson has had three 1,000-yard-plus seasons. Johnson is one of the top linebackers in the game. Brown remains a solid option on the offensive line. Clayton played seven NFL seasons; Washington played six. But there were only five guys selected and that isn't enough to push 2005 to the top of the list.

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Adrian Peterson
Andy Clayton King/Getty ImagesThe Big 12's 2007 draft class wasn't huge, but did feature 2012 NFL MVP Adrian Peterson.
2009: Every Big 12 player selected in the first round in 2009 has produced and appears to be poised to continue to do so. Only Jason Smith didn’t have a start last year. But the offensive lineman still played in all 16 games for the New York Jets. Michael Crabtree, Brian Orakpo, Josh Freeman, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Pettigrew and Ziggy Hood are all starters for their respective teams.

2007: It wasn’t the biggest group, but it did include Adrian Peterson, so there could be some quibbling that maybe 2007 should be higher in the rankings. Throw in Aaron Ross and Michael Griffin and the debate could get even more heated. Adam Carriker was also taken this year. He started his career strong but suffered an injury and only played in two games last season.

2003: Kevin Williams has been the standout of this group. The defensive tackle has started every game but four in his 10-year career. Terence Newman has been effective as a defensive back, first in Dallas and last season in Cincinnati. Tyler Brayton played at least 15 games on the defensive line in a nine-year career. Ty Warren played eight solid seasons for New England but tailed off last season with Denver. Andre Woolfolk lasted four seasons, mostly as a reserve.

2011: Von Miller, who was the highest pick among Big 12 players this year, has proved to be the top player so far. Aldon Smith is not far behind. Add in Prince Amukamara, Phillip Taylor, who when healthy is a starter at defensive tackle, a somewhat productive Blaine Gabbert and Nate Solder as well as reliable backups Danny Watkins and Jimmy Smith and this proved to be a successful year for Big 12 first-round selections.

2012: Three quarterbacks, and all were not only starters as rookies but also made huge differences for their respective squads. Clearly, Robert Griffin III made the most dramatic impact, but Ryan Tannehill, with the Dolphins, and Brandon Weeden, with Cleveland, were both solid. Kendall Wright and Justin Blackmon each had 64 catches, for Tennessee and Jacksonville, respectively. Blackmon was targeted more (133 to 104) and had 200 more receiving yards.

2010: This list maybe doesn’t have the star power and is not littered with offensive playmakers, but six of the nine players picked were selected for the 2013 NFL Pro Bowl: Gerald McCoy, Trent Williams, Ndamukong Suh, Earl Thomas, Russell Okung and Jermaine Gresham. And the other three players -- Dez Bryant, Sam Bradford and Sean Weatherspoon -- were vital pieces for their respective teams.

Nick Florence says he's done with football

February, 7, 2013
Feb 7
9:45
AM CT
Baylor quarterback Nick Florence stepped in for Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III and led the Big 12 in passing yards and finished second nationally in total offense while leading the Bears to an eight-win season as a senior.

After all that, though, he's not going to pursue a future in the NFL. His career is over, he told the Waco Tribune-Herald.

"I’ve decided to hang up my cleats and finish my master’s in December," Florence told the paper. "My wife and I have spent the last 1 1/2 months talking about it, and it all came down to what we wanted in life, and it didn’t include playing football."

Florence, a native of Garland, Texas, in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, threw for 4,309 yards, 33 touchdowns and ran for 568 yards with 10 scores for the Bears this past season, breaking Griffin's school record for passing yards.

He says he wants to do something in sports and business after finishing up his degree with a pair of 13-hour semesters through December.

"Oh yeah, I’m going to miss it," Florence said. "I’ve been doing it my whole life. I don’t know whether I would have been drafted, but I have no doubt that I could have made a team. But I’ll look back and have a lot of great memories."

Postseason position rankings: Quarterback

January, 29, 2013
Jan 29
1:00
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Every year, we rank the top 10 players at positions across the Big 12 before the season and after. We'll kick off our list with the glamour position in the Big 12: Quarterback.

A quick note on the rankings: Only one player per team was allowed. I picked the best QB on the teams that shuffled throughout the season, and didn't include players who left the team or were ineligible to end the season.

1. Collin Klein, Kansas State: Klein is not your traditional quarterback and not the kind of guy the Big 12 has made its offensive reputation behind. What he is, though? A leader who showcases his toughness and a good enough passer to make K-State one of the nation's most efficient offenses and forces defenses to respect him on deep and intermediate throws. He completed 64 percent of his passes for 2,646 yards and rushed for 925 yards, accounting for 39 touchdowns.

2. Geno Smith, West Virginia: One would think if you win the Big 12 Preseason Offensive Player of the Year honor, throw 42 touchdowns to just six picks and rack up almost 4,200 yards passing, you'd win it easily in the postseason. Not the case. Smith was fantastic this year and might be the first quarterback taken in the NFL draft. Smith is clearly the Big 12's best "passer," but he's not quite the Big 12's best quarterback.

3. Landry Jones, Oklahoma: Jones' experience is unmatched in this league, but he never quite got over the top as the Big 12's best quarterback. He was always solid, even if he might be vulnerable to a big mistake. He threw an interception in each of his final seven games at OU, but he also racked up 30 touchdowns and 4,272 yards. He threw for at least 3,000 yards in each of the past four seasons and leaves as the No. 3 all-time passer in FBS history.

4. Nick Florence, Baylor: Florence led the Big 12 in total offense by almost 40 full yards per game. Not only did he lead the league in passing yards with 4,309, he added almost 600 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns. He filled in admirably for RG III, and it's a shame he had to burn his redshirt in 2011 after Griffin suffered a head injury.

5. Seth Doege, Texas Tech: Doege was second nationally with 39 touchdown passes and had a solid senior season. There were some rough games, sure, but he was third in the Big 12 with 4,205 yards. The biggest negative for Doege that bumped him down this list? A Big 12-high 16 interceptions.

6. Clint Chelf, Oklahoma State: Only took one Oklahoma State quarterback for this list, but Chelf was the steadiest this season for the Pokes, and the only one who didn't get hurt. Chelf threw for 15 touchdowns and just six picks and averaged just under 200 passing yards a game. He also ran for 162 yards on just 31 carries.

7. David Ash, Texas: Ash had a really strong start and looked like one of the Big 12's best quarterbacks early in the season. He flirted with the FBS lead in passer rating before coming to Earth a bit late in the year and getting benched against KU and suffering a rib injury late in the year. He still threw for almost 2,700 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight picks.

8. Trevone Boykin, TCU: Boykin had to fill in for the Frogs' Casey Pachall, but had his biggest successes in two situations: Broken plays that required him to scramble and deep balls. The rest of the offense seemed to struggle at times, but Boykin definitely made it interesting. He completed just 57 percent of his passes and had 10 interceptions to his 15 scores, but he hung in there and helped carry the Frogs to a seven-win season.

9. Sam Richardson, Iowa State: Richardson emerged from nowhere to win the Cyclones' quarterback job in the final weeks of the season and prompt a transfer from 2011's season hero: Jared Barnett. Richardson is a prototypical passer who also has wheels and threw eight touchdowns to just one pick in the Cyclones' final three games.

10. Michael Cummings, Kansas: Cummings stepped in for a struggling Dayne Crist, but didn't offer much after doing so and couldn't get KU over the hump to get a Big 12 win. BYU transfer Jake Heaps is likely to slide in front of Cummings on the depth chart next year after Cummings completed just 45 percent of his passes for three touchdowns and four interceptions. He did make some plays with his feet, though it was hard for the yardage to show that was the case because there were so many sacks.

Ranking the Big 12's top 25 players: No. 24

January, 23, 2013
Jan 23
10:00
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We're continuing our countdown of the Big 12's top 25 players from the 2012 season. Here's more on my criteria for the list. You can take a look at how the preseason list looked here.

The official list is locked away in a vault in an undisclosed location, but we'll be revealing one player a day moving forward.

Let's keep this train rolling.

No. 24: Nick Florence, QB, Baylor

2012 numbers: Completed 286 of 464 (61.6 percent) passes for 4,309 yards, 33 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Ran 139 times for 568 yards and 10 touchdowns. Also punted twice for an average of 46.5 yards.

Most recent ranking: Florence was unranked in our preseason list of the Big 12's top 25 players.

Making the case for Florence: It feels a little wrong to have the Big 12's leading passer this low on the list, a guy who averaged over 9.0 yards a pass attempt this season. He had tons of help in the form of the Big 12's best two deep threats, Terrance Williams and Tevin Reese, but Baylor needed someone to fill the shoes of Robert Griffin III. Florence was outstanding. He struggled at times early in the conference season, but he was a big part of Baylor's late-season surge and four-game winning streak to close the season. His questionable decision-making at times kept him from finishing higher on this list, but it's clear that Art Briles did it again: He found, developed and started a fantastic quarterback to make his high-flying offense run. Florence finished second nationally in total offense, at over 375 yards a game. Only Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M averaged more, but last year RG III averaged only nine more per game. This season, Florence even broke Griffin's school record for passing yards, topping RG III by 16 yards with a strong performance in the Bears' bowl win over UCLA.

The rest of the list:

The biggest Big 12 offseason storylines

January, 17, 2013
Jan 17
10:30
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The offseason is under way, but offseasons are fun, too. Here are the storylines to keep an eye on until the teams are back on the field in 2013.

1. Can Casey Pachall get back on track? TCU's quarterback is officially back with the team after leaving school to go to an in-patient drug and alcohol treatment facility. Most people want to know if he'll be the same player, but what's even more important is whether he can avoid the same pitfalls and get his life back on track.

2. Expansion junction, what's your function? The odds seem strongly against it, but you know we're not getting through a college football offseason without talking expansion at some point. How much will it heat up? Will Florida State re-emerge as a Big 12 candidate?

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Robert Griffin and Art Briles
AP Photo/Darren AbateArt Briles, left, has done a great job developing quarterbacks at Houston and at Baylor.
3. Will the 'Quarterback Whisperer' do it again? Baylor coach Art Briles' last four quarterbacks have been absurd. Kevin Kolb and Case Keenum got it done at Houston, and Robert Griffin III won a Heisman as the best of the bunch at Baylor. Nick Florence led the Big 12 in passing yards last year. What does Briles have in store this season? Bryce Petty has better measurables than Florence, but can the redshirt junior show off his experience in the system and make good decisions?

4. Striking the fear back in Lubbock. Kliff Kingsbury is looking to bring swagger back to Lubbock. He's still piecing together his staff, but the 33-year-old has the pieces to put together a solid team on the field, too. Can Texas Tech break the string of late-season collapses the past two years?

5. Charlie Weis' juco revolution. Weis has made it clear that he wants quick fixes and to win now at KU. Will his juco recruiting haul do it? Defensive lineman Marquel Combs was the nation's No. 1 juco recruit, and Weis has done a heck of a job selling immediate playing time to these guys. The current recruiting class has 17 juco transfers among 25 commits. Will it pay off, and how will these guys look once they get on campus? Are wins just around the corner?

6. A quarterback competition for the ages. Was Oklahoma State the first team ever to have three 1,000-yard passers? Two of them were freshmen, too. The QB derby last spring was good. This year's will be even better, with all three showing they could win games in Big 12 play. Clint Chelf will have the inside track, but Wes Lunt and J.W. Walsh will try to swipe it away. Could one transfer be imminent after the spring?

7. Are the Longhorns finally, officially, certifiably back? Texas looked like it was back after going up to Stillwater and winning a dramatic game that helped the Longhorns ascend to No. 11 in the polls. Then consecutive losses capped by a Red River Blowout made it obvious the Horns weren't quite back yet. David Ash's development and fixing Manny Diaz's surprisingly vulnerable defense will decide whether 2013 is the season Texas returns to the BCS stage.

8. What about the championship game? Bob Bowlsby turned some heads when he inquired with the NCAA about a waiver to hold a championship game with just 10 teams. I don't think there's much fire around that smoke, but how serious will any talk of a return of the Big 12 title game get? The coaches would hate it.

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl keys

December, 27, 2012
12/27/12
1:33
PM CT
Here are three keys for tonight's Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl:

1. Johnathan Franklin versus Lache Seastrunk: Baylor's defense is bad, but it's better against the run than the pass. When we type "better," we mean less terrible. The Bears give up 189 yards rushing per game -- 4.74 yards per rush -- which ranks 89th in the nation. Franklin, who averages 6.3 yards per carry, needs 300 yards to hit the 2,000-yard mark this season. He probably won't get that, but he could cross the two bills mark. Meanwhile, Seastrunk's emergence in the final portion of the season was a key to the Bears' late surge. If he outrushes Franklin, the Bears probably are going to win.

2. Attack on defense: One of the great secrets this season was that Baylor QB Nick Florence was darned near as good as Robert Griffin III was during his Heisman Trophy campaign in 2011. He's a good runner and scrambler and was sacked only 1.42 times per game. He also only threw two interceptions over the final five games, both coming in the upset win over Kansas State. The Bruins ranked seventh in the nation with 3.31 sacks per game, and outside linebacker Anthony Barr is one of the nation's dominant pass-rushers. The first step is pressuring Florence. The second is hoping that pressure causes him to misfire. Against a spectacular offense that scores quickly, UCLA should be willing to take some chances to potentially create big plays.

3. Turnovers: It's a good bet that whoever wins the turnover battle wins the game, because with two prolific offenses scoring a lot of points, every possession is critical. Baylor's season turned around when it started protecting the football -- it won the turnover battle 13-3 over the final five games. UCLA committed six of its 25 turnovers in one game, its horrid 43-17 loss at California.

Baylor breaks out some big talk for 2013

December, 24, 2012
12/24/12
9:37
AM CT
Baylor's never been short on confidence. It's not Art Briles' style. It wasn't Robert Griffin III's style, and he went out and won 10 games and a Heisman Trophy.

Baylor running back Lache Seastrunk is a long way from duplicating those feats, but in my book, he's outrunning RG3 by a long ways when it comes to self-confidence.

From Sporting News:
“I feel like there’s no back who can do what I do,” he told SN. “I know I’m the fastest back in the country. I know I’m the best back in the country. Nobody’s going to work harder.”

But that’s not all. Are you listening?

“I’m going to win the Heisman. I’m going to win it in 2013. If I don’t, I’m going to get very close.
[+] Enlarge
Baylor's Lache Seastrunk
Jerome Miron/USA TODAY SportsBaylor running back Lache Seastrunk has Heisman aspirations in 2013.
Well, hello there. Not leaving much to the imagination with those words, which far, far overshadowed his own coach's ambitious thoughts earlier in the article.

“We think we certainly have the potential to win the Big 12 conference championship -- without question,” Briles told the publication.

I can't help but chuckle at Seastrunk's assertion later in the piece that talks about how his experiences at Oregon -- essentially, he didn't get on the field and transferred -- humbled him.

First things first: Seastrunk isn't crazy. A year ago, the idea of Johnny Football winning the Heisman Trophy was far, far more insane. He hadn't even played a snap.

Seastrunk strung together one of the best stretches to close the season -- 499 rushing yards in his final three games, 693 in his final five -- of any player in the Big 12. Baylor finally gave him the lion's share of carries and Seastrunk devoured them. He'll only get more next season, even with Glasco Martin returning.

I don't think Seastrunk's words do much more than make him a target for Big 12 defenses and opposing fans. RG3 had plenty of confidence publicly, but surely more privately. All of that endeared himself to his team and that confidence carried over to his teammates. Seastrunk's outlook of his 2013 season might be better off being shared with teammates, rather than a media outlet.

I truly believe he believes that. He might be right. I'm not going to say he's not.

What I know for certain? He injected a great storyline everybody's going to want to see play out in the 2013 season. Briles was plenty confident on his own, even though Seastrunk's thoughts will earn the biggest headlines.

Briles isn't crazy either. Baylor might not have the nation's No. 1 offense next season, but they'll have enough talent to come close with Tevin Reese, Bryce Petty and Seastrunk, along with a solid offensive line anchored by Cyril Richardson.

For Baylor, the story's going to be the same as it's been under Briles: Can the defense get them there?

It's been poor throughout Baylor's rise, which almost makes that rise even more remarkable. Winning 24 games in three seasons with that defense is no small accomplishment.

Is 2013 the year Phil Bennett's defense finally turns the corner? If it does, don't be surprised if Seastrunk and Briles look mighty prescient this time next year.

Big 12 did you know: December bowl edition

December, 21, 2012
12/21/12
10:33
PM CT
We're back again with fun facts and tidbits from the folks at ESPN Stats & Info and various sports information departments around the Big 12.

We're only tackling the Big 12 games in December today. We'll hit the January games a little later.
  • In wins, Geno Smith has completed 69 percent of his throws longer than 15 yards. In losses, he's completed 22 percent of those same throws.
  • Syracuse's defense has given up 39 percent of throws longer than 15 yards.
  • Smith is 0-2 against Syracuse and threw at least two interceptions and completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes in both games.
  • When the Orange blitzed, he completed just 45 percent of his passes with three interceptions. Smith completed 65.4 percent of his passes while blitzed over the rest of his career.
  • Smith has completed 106-of-141 passes to Stedman Bailey and 110-of-140 passes to Tavon Austin. Austin has 909 of his 1,259 yards after the catch. Bailey has 553 of his 1,501 yards after the catch.
  • Eleven of Bailey's 23 touchdown catches came on throws longer than 15 yards.
  • West Virginia's defense gave up 63 passes longer than 20 yards. No team has allowed that many since Nevada gave up 70 back in 2008.
  • In losses this season, David Ash has thrown four interceptions and no touchdowns on throws longer than 10 yards.
  • He's completed just 33 percent of those attempts longer than 10 yards in losses, compared to 56 percent in wins. He has eight touchdowns and two picks in wins on those throws.
  • Running back Joe Bergeron averages 4.7 yards a carry between the tackles. The rest of Texas' team averages just 2.6 yards.
  • Texas has run inside the tackles on 69 percent of its running plays this year, but has 32 more rushing yards this season outside the tackles.
  • Texas' defense gave up 38 plays longer than 20 yards and missed 81 tackles in 13 games last season.
  • This season, Texas' defense gave up 61 plays longer than 20 yards and missed 105 tackles in 12 games.
  • Michigan State running back Le'Veon Bell's 833 yards after contact lead the FBS.
  • TCU QB Trevone Boykin averages 7.3 yards a scramble, and 9.4 yards on third downs. He's averaging 4.1 yards a carry on designed runs.
  • Michigan State opponents have gained yardage on just 56.7 percent of their plays this season, the lowest percentage in the FBS.
  • Baylor quarterback Nick Florence has an FBS-best 19 touchdown passes longer than 20 yards, and he's thrown at least two in seven of 12 games this year. Last year, Robert Griffin III had 22 touchdown passes of at least 20 yards.
  • Florence has completed 26-of-45 passes longer than 20 yards downfield to Terrance Williams. His 26 catches of that length lead the FBS.
  • Florence is just 18-of-54 on passes longer than 20 yards down field to the rest of the team.
  • Williams' 14 catches longer than 40 yards also lead FBS.
  • Baylor has scored 19 of its 69 touchdowns in one minute or less.
  • Baylor has 53 plays longer than 30 yards, the most in FBS.
  • Baylor has scored on 49 percent of its possessions (3rd in FBS) and have just 15 three-and-outs, the fewest in the FBS. The Bears have never had more than two three-and-outs in a game this season.
  • This year is the seventh in eight years that at least eight Big 12 teams will play in bowl games.
  • Every team that beat a Big 12 team in 2012 is eligible for a bowl game.
  • Every Big 12 team has reached a bowl game since 2008.
  • Big 12 offenses have averaged at least 30 points a game in four of the past five seasons.
  • Baylor and UCLA have never met.
  • Baylor has seven wins in three consecutive seasons for the first time since 1949-51.
  • Iowa State won three road games this season for the first time since 2001.
  • Kansas State has played in 16 bowl games. Bill Snyder was the head coach for 14 of them.
  • TCU is one of just three programs to win six bowl games in the past seven years.
  • Texas is 8-2 in its last 10 bowl games.
  • This is West Virginia's fifth game ever at the home of the New York Yankees.
  • Texas Tech won the only meeting ever against Minnesota, erasing a 31-point, second-half lead for a win in the 2006 Insight Bowl.
  • Texas is 2-0 all-time against Oregon State. Iowa State is 2-0 all-time against Tulsa.
  • Michigan State is 1-0 all-time against TCU.

A closer look: Holiday Bowl

December, 12, 2012
12/12/12
3:00
PM CT

As the bowl season approaches, we're going to be looking a little closer at each game. We'll go down the Big 12 bowl schedule in chronological order. Let's start with the Baylor Bears' date with UCLA.

BRIDGEPOINT EDUCATION HOLIDAY BOWL

Baylor (7-5) vs. No. 17 UCLA (9-4)

Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, Calif.

When: Thursday, Dec. 27, 9:45 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

About Baylor: Nobody knew for sure what was in store for Baylor after not only losing Heisman winner Robert Griffin III, but also the Big 12's leading receiver and fellow first-round draft pick Kendall Wright, and the Big 12's leading rusher, Terrance Ganaway. What we learned was Art Briles truly is a master of offense and quarterback development. The Bears enter this game as the hottest team in the Big 12, fresh off a dominant win over then-No. 1 Kansas State and wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Baylor looked very unlikely to crack the postseason sitting at 4-5 with three solid teams ahead. Then the Bears proved us all wrong and finished the season with the nation's No. 1 offense.

About UCLA: The first season under Jim Mora Jr. has gone better than almost anyone could have figured. The Bruins drew chuckles when they hired a coach with just one season of college experience among his two-plus decades in coaching, and even that was only GA experience at his alma mater, Washington. The longtime NFL coach proved himself in his first season, helping UCLA reach the Pac-12 title game. A loss to Stanford denied the Bruins a Rose Bowl bid, but there's no question that Mora's first season has been a success.

Bears to watch: The headliner is quarterback Nick Florence, the nation's leader in total offense. He's shown a propensity to toss a pick or two (his 13 are more than all Big 12 QBs except Texas Tech's Seth Doege), but he's a lot more than the only Bear to keep an eye on. Running back Lache Seastrunk broke out late in the season, rushing for 693 yards and five scores in the final five games of the season, grabbing a starting role and looking like the hottest player in the league to end the season. Receiver Terrance Williams is an All-American, the nation's leader in receiving yardage and a Biletnikoff Award finalist. Defensively, linebacker Eddie Lackey grabbed a pair of Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week honors after returning picks for scores in each of Baylor's final two games.

Bruins to watch: UCLA loves the zone read and quarterback Brett Hundley was a breakout star in the Pac-12 this season. So was running back Johnathan Franklin, who racked up 1,700 yards to finish ninth nationally in rushing. That would have led the Big 12. Hundley threw for 26 touchdowns and ran for nine more. If Baylor's going to win this game, it starts with slowing down those two.

Did you know? Baylor's offense doesn't mess around. The Bears have nine touchdown drives this season that lasted exactly one play. That's ridiculous. Baylor also has 16 touchdown drives that lasted three plays or less. The biggest reason for that? Williams and fellow receiver Tevin Reese. Williams' 22 catches longer than 30 yards are eight more than any player in the country, and Reese is eighth nationally with eight grabs of 40 yards or longer. Another reason for BU's success? The Bears were a rousing minus-11 in turnover margin during their 0-4 start in Big 12 play. Since then, the Bears are plus-10 and went 4-1 in Big 12 play down the stretch.

Big 12 by the numbers: Pre-bowls

December, 6, 2012
12/06/12
3:00
PM CT
Time for a few numbers that tell the story of the 2012 season in the Big 12:

4: Big 12 teams that finished above Texas in total defense this season.

4: Seasons in which Texas had led the Big 12 in total defense.

9: Big 12 teams that gave up fewer rushing yards than Texas.

8: Returning starters from the Longhorns' defense in 2011, which of course led the Big 12 in total defense.

0: Defenses in Texas history that gave up more yardage in a season than 2012.

10: Sacks allowed by Oklahoma State all season, three fewer than any team in the Big 12.

2: Serious leg injuries to Oklahoma State quarterbacks J.W. Walsh and Wes Lunt. Lunt also suffered a reported head injury against Kansas State.

0: Big 12 teams whose starting quarterbacks missed a full game because of injury.

21: Positive turnover margin for Kansas State.

6: The next-best turnover margin in the Big 12, by West Virginia.

-11: Turnover margin for Texas Tech in its final five games. The Red Raiders were 1-4 over the stretch and finished the season -12 in turnover margin, good for 110th nationally.

2: National rank of Baylor's offense with Heisman winner Robert Griffin III (587 yards/game).

1: National rank of Baylor's offense with bearded quarterback Nick Florence (578 yards/game).

6: Big 12 teams ranked 110th or lower nationally in punts per game.

5: Big 12 teams in the top 12 nationally in total offense.
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