We're all guilty of the same crime from time to time: reading too much into one result, overreaching with some opinion, buying too much stock when it might actually be time to sell. It comes with the territory of covering this unpredictable game. Here's a look back at a few things we thought we knew during the 2014 Big 12 season. A lot of them were wrong.
Aug. 30: Oklahoma State almost beat Florida State!
Season openers can be consistently pretty good at making people look foolish. With all the prep time coaches have, the results can be about as meaningful and enduring as bowl games. In this instance, Oklahoma State played No. 1 Florida State a lot closer than most expected. The Seminoles won 37-31 at AT&T Stadium but almost squandered a 17-0 lead. That game was a coming-out party for Emmanuel Ogbah and Tyreek Hill, who went on to have great seasons, but the Pokes finished 7-5. We sensed that OSU's showing and West Virginia's close game against Alabama signaled that the Big 12 can play with anyone. That might be right, but the Cowboys' season didn't get much easier from there.
Oct. 18: Texas has its QB of the future!
On the jump to conclusions mat, we hopped to this spot a couple of times during the season. Tyrone Swoopes definitely had his moments in 2014. Against Oklahoma, Iowa State and Oklahoma State, he threw for 300-plus yards in each game, and it appeared the Longhorns could lean on him for the future. In this particular week, against the Cyclones, he came up clutch by driving 68 yards in two plays to set up the game-winning field goal in a 48-45 win. The next week, Texas lost to K-State 23-0. His impressive showing against Oklahoma State was followed up by the debacle against TCU. In a year of highs and lows for Swoopes, it was probably unrealistic to make such bold and definitive statements.
Nov. 1: Sugar Bowl Trevor is back!
Speaking of quarterbacks with highs and lows, Oklahoma's Trevor Knight was also a tough dude to peg during the 2014 season. Once again, we witnessed a quarterback shred Iowa State and believed this meant progress. Knight was at his dual-threat best on Nov. 1: 230 yards passing, 146 rushing and six total TDs in a 59-14 beatdown in Ames. That "Sugar Bowl Trevor" label of how good he can be on the right day remains both unfair and elusive, though, as the Sooners' showing against Baylor the next week proved.
Dec. 2: TCU is making the College Football Playoff!
They really got us good with this one. We didn't make such a bold prediction at the time, but all the indicators were there, right? When the playoff committee boosted the Horned Frogs up to No. 3, ahead of Florida State, going into the final weekend of the season, it seemed reasonable to conclude that a blowout win against Iowa State would be enough to secure TCU's playoff bid. This ended up being a false hope, and it was heartbreaking for Horned Frogs fans. Baylor fans were angry at the time, too, but didn't need to be. A few days later, the playoff committee finally bumped the Bears ahead of TCU, which lost to Baylor in October.
Have you had enough yet? No? Here's a preview of a few talking points you're sure to hear about in the offseason that might in fact be regrettable overreactions. Only time will tell, really, but we have to discuss 'em anyway.
Mason Rudolph is a star!
The way Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph closed out the season with three inspiring starts, including the shocking upset of Oklahoma in Norman, is inspiring a lot of confidence about where the Pokes are heading in 2015. But he was a true freshman, and surely there will be speed bumps along the way as he grows in his sophomore year. Let's have a little patience, shall we?
Paul Rhoads is on the hot seat!
You knew this talking point was coming eventually. To this point, the job of beloved Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads has never really seemed to be in jeopardy, despite the on-field results (2-10). But the Cyclones just endured a winless conference season and have lost 23 of their past 29 games. Recruiting isn't going great, either. The pressure will build if Rhoads can't produce more promising results in 2015.
Maybe TCU and Baylor can both make the playoff!
Putting both teams in the top three of our Way-Too-Early preseason rankings might lead to this viewpoint, but it's probably a shaky one. Only one of these teams can go undefeated, and there are no guarantees for one-loss teams. Whoever wins their Black Friday showdown in Fort Worth should be in great shape. But who knows what that game will mean for the loser?