Cowboys: New England Patriots
A look at New England's '12' personnel
May, 1, 2013
May 1
9:31
AM CT
By
Todd Archer | ESPNDallas.com
IRVING, Texas -- The Cowboys made it clear they will become a two-tight end personnel team after the draft.
Jerry Jones invoked the New England Patriots when discussing the scheme following the selection of San Diego State tight end Gavin Escobar in the second round. The Cowboys also had Notre Dame’s Tyler Eifert graded as a first-round pick.
With Jason Witten (who is coming off a 110-catch season), James Hanna and Escobar, the Cowboys are in position to attempt to simulate what Tom Brady does with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
We offer a Q&A with ESPN Boston’s Mike Reiss for an explanation of how New England uses its “12 personnel.”
Archer: What makes the Patriots' use of the two-tight end package work so well?
Reiss: It starts with the unique talents of the tight ends themselves. Rob Gronkowski (6-foot-6, 265 pounds) is obviously a very tough matchup for a linebacker or safety. He's more likely to be aligned closest to the offensive tackle, but because he runs so well, the Patriots will also split him out wide. He's equally as effective as a blocker or pass-catcher, making him a true "combination" tight end. Aaron Hernandez (6-1, 245) is a nice complement to Gronkowski. He is more receiver-like and thus is split out wide more often or on the move, although he does align close to the tackle on occasion and is competitive as an in-line blocker even though it's not his forte. We've seen the Patriots run the same offense with different tight ends and it hasn't been as effective (e.g., last season's playoffs when Gronkowski was out with injury), so I think the first key is to acknowledge that it's more about the players than the scheme when it comes to the Patriots' two-tight end package and its success.
Archer: How does it differ, in your mind, from how other teams use the package?
Reiss: Probably the biggest thing is how many formations and adjustments they can run out of it, which comes back to the versatility and unique skills of the top two tight ends, Gronkowski and Hernandez. They could be empty in the package, with both tight ends split out wide, or more tightly compact in a traditional look with both tight ends aligned next to the tackles. Sometimes they play up-tempo with it. Other times they slow it down. So there are really so many things you can do out of the package, which again is tied to the uniqueness of Gronkowski and Hernandez. When one of those players has been injured, the package isn't as dynamic, and at times in those situations, the Patriots will use a third receiver over a second tight end.
Archer: How do most teams combat it with their defensive personnel?
Reiss: I'd say most teams combat it with a nickel package, essentially treating Hernandez as a receiver. When that happens, the Patriots have made a concerted effort to turn to the running game, feeling that a two-TE package should be able to win that matchup against a smaller defense. The results were uneven last season when it was two-TE versus nickel, in part due to some injuries on the offensive line. One of the clear-cut examples of it working to a T was last year's Sept. 30 win over the Bills, when they played a small nickel the entire game (it could have even been a dime but they listed 6-1, 220-pound safety Bryan Scott as a linebacker) and the Patriots powered through them for 247 rushing yards. Other teams have stayed in base, but it takes special personnel to do that and not get beaten by the tight ends in the passing game.
Archer: Is there ever a downside to it, like shrinking the field too much?
Reiss: If we wanted to nitpick from a Patriots perspective, we could say that relying so heavily on the two-TE package when your top receiver is more of a slot option (Wes Welker from 2007 to '12) means that your three best pass-catchers all do their best work in the middle of the field. So I guess there is a part of it where "shrinking the field" could come into play, but I don't think that's a reason not to do it. If you have two special tight ends, they can be matchup-busters and you can dictate terms based on their versatility. If the defense plays nickel against you, pound it at that team. If the defense plays base personnel, spread that defense out and let it rip.
Archer: Has the package all but eliminated the fullback in the offense?
Reiss: Yes, for the most part. The Patriots used tight end Michael Hoomanawanui in a fullback role at times last season. Other times, most often closer to the goal line, they used an offensive lineman as a fullback. But overall, when running so much of the offense with two tight ends, you're most often going to see two receivers and a running back paired with them unless it's a short-yardage situation. In terms of building the 53-man roster, one point that Bill Belichick has made is that the fullback is basically competing against a running back, tight end or linebacker for a spot, and it often can come down to special teams contributions. The Patriots didn't carry a pure fullback last season.
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With Jason Witten (who is coming off a 110-catch season), James Hanna and Escobar, the Cowboys are in position to attempt to simulate what Tom Brady does with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
We offer a Q&A with ESPN Boston’s Mike Reiss for an explanation of how New England uses its “12 personnel.”
Archer: What makes the Patriots' use of the two-tight end package work so well?
Reiss: It starts with the unique talents of the tight ends themselves. Rob Gronkowski (6-foot-6, 265 pounds) is obviously a very tough matchup for a linebacker or safety. He's more likely to be aligned closest to the offensive tackle, but because he runs so well, the Patriots will also split him out wide. He's equally as effective as a blocker or pass-catcher, making him a true "combination" tight end. Aaron Hernandez (6-1, 245) is a nice complement to Gronkowski. He is more receiver-like and thus is split out wide more often or on the move, although he does align close to the tackle on occasion and is competitive as an in-line blocker even though it's not his forte. We've seen the Patriots run the same offense with different tight ends and it hasn't been as effective (e.g., last season's playoffs when Gronkowski was out with injury), so I think the first key is to acknowledge that it's more about the players than the scheme when it comes to the Patriots' two-tight end package and its success.
Archer: How does it differ, in your mind, from how other teams use the package?
Reiss: Probably the biggest thing is how many formations and adjustments they can run out of it, which comes back to the versatility and unique skills of the top two tight ends, Gronkowski and Hernandez. They could be empty in the package, with both tight ends split out wide, or more tightly compact in a traditional look with both tight ends aligned next to the tackles. Sometimes they play up-tempo with it. Other times they slow it down. So there are really so many things you can do out of the package, which again is tied to the uniqueness of Gronkowski and Hernandez. When one of those players has been injured, the package isn't as dynamic, and at times in those situations, the Patriots will use a third receiver over a second tight end.
Archer: How do most teams combat it with their defensive personnel?
Reiss: I'd say most teams combat it with a nickel package, essentially treating Hernandez as a receiver. When that happens, the Patriots have made a concerted effort to turn to the running game, feeling that a two-TE package should be able to win that matchup against a smaller defense. The results were uneven last season when it was two-TE versus nickel, in part due to some injuries on the offensive line. One of the clear-cut examples of it working to a T was last year's Sept. 30 win over the Bills, when they played a small nickel the entire game (it could have even been a dime but they listed 6-1, 220-pound safety Bryan Scott as a linebacker) and the Patriots powered through them for 247 rushing yards. Other teams have stayed in base, but it takes special personnel to do that and not get beaten by the tight ends in the passing game.
Archer: Is there ever a downside to it, like shrinking the field too much?
Reiss: If we wanted to nitpick from a Patriots perspective, we could say that relying so heavily on the two-TE package when your top receiver is more of a slot option (Wes Welker from 2007 to '12) means that your three best pass-catchers all do their best work in the middle of the field. So I guess there is a part of it where "shrinking the field" could come into play, but I don't think that's a reason not to do it. If you have two special tight ends, they can be matchup-busters and you can dictate terms based on their versatility. If the defense plays nickel against you, pound it at that team. If the defense plays base personnel, spread that defense out and let it rip.
Archer: Has the package all but eliminated the fullback in the offense?
Reiss: Yes, for the most part. The Patriots used tight end Michael Hoomanawanui in a fullback role at times last season. Other times, most often closer to the goal line, they used an offensive lineman as a fullback. But overall, when running so much of the offense with two tight ends, you're most often going to see two receivers and a running back paired with them unless it's a short-yardage situation. In terms of building the 53-man roster, one point that Bill Belichick has made is that the fullback is basically competing against a running back, tight end or linebacker for a spot, and it often can come down to special teams contributions. The Patriots didn't carry a pure fullback last season.
Cole Beasley should be used more
March, 16, 2013
Mar 16
3:00
PM CT
By
Calvin Watkins | ESPNDallas.com
In the early days of free agency we've seen slot receivers become a hot topic.
Wes Welker left the New England Patriots and signed a two-year deal with the Denver Broncos.
The Patriots found his replacement before Welker got his new deal when they signed Danny Amendola from St. Louis.
The Cowboys haven't really had a typical No. 3 slot receiver with the body type of Welker and Amendola.
Patrick Crayton, Kevin Ogletree, Laurent Robinson and Dwayne Harris were No. 3 receivers who played in the slot, but didn't have that small frame.
Last year, the Cowboys found one in Cole Beasley, a player who fits Welker's and Amendola's body type. Beasley is 5-foot-8, 177 pounds. In his rookie season, Beasley finished with 15 catches for 128 yards with no touchdowns. He made a bulk of his catches out of the slot and going forward the Cowboys should use him more often from this area.
New England utilized Welker for several years from the slot to beat teams in the middle of the field. His speed allowed him to get past defenders for yards after catch.
Maybe Beasley can be used in the same fashion in 2013.
Dez Bryant and Miles Austin can stretch defenses deep with their speed and Jason Witten can also command the middle of the field. What about Beasley? If defenses take Bryant and Austin out of the game with their coverages, which has happened, Beasley is a player who should get some run.
There have been teams who have used short receivers from the slot to make plays in different areas of the field and the Cowboys have Beasley who might fit that role.
Wes Welker left the New England Patriots and signed a two-year deal with the Denver Broncos.
The Patriots found his replacement before Welker got his new deal when they signed Danny Amendola from St. Louis.
The Cowboys haven't really had a typical No. 3 slot receiver with the body type of Welker and Amendola.
Patrick Crayton, Kevin Ogletree, Laurent Robinson and Dwayne Harris were No. 3 receivers who played in the slot, but didn't have that small frame.
Last year, the Cowboys found one in Cole Beasley, a player who fits Welker's and Amendola's body type. Beasley is 5-foot-8, 177 pounds. In his rookie season, Beasley finished with 15 catches for 128 yards with no touchdowns. He made a bulk of his catches out of the slot and going forward the Cowboys should use him more often from this area.
New England utilized Welker for several years from the slot to beat teams in the middle of the field. His speed allowed him to get past defenders for yards after catch.
Maybe Beasley can be used in the same fashion in 2013.
Dez Bryant and Miles Austin can stretch defenses deep with their speed and Jason Witten can also command the middle of the field. What about Beasley? If defenses take Bryant and Austin out of the game with their coverages, which has happened, Beasley is a player who should get some run.
There have been teams who have used short receivers from the slot to make plays in different areas of the field and the Cowboys have Beasley who might fit that role.
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Patriots guard Donald Thomas on Cowboys' radar?
February, 27, 2013
Feb 27
2:13
PM CT
By
Calvin Watkins | ESPNDallas.com
NFL Insiders Gary Horton and Field Yates took a look a the Dallas Cowboys in their pre-free agency series.
The duo addresses the Cowboys' needs in free agency and discuss the overall team philosophies in this ESPN Insider column.
Backup guard Donald Thomas of the New England Patriots is mentioned as potential free agent target for the Cowboys.
Of course, the Cowboys spent a combined $30 million on Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau last offseason. Livings had a good season until health issues derailed him late in the year. Bernadeau struggled for the most part and at one point during the season shared first-team reps with Derrick Dockery in practice. Bernadeau didn't lose his starting gig, but there was a possibility he could if he didn't improve his play.
The Cowboys need to improve the offensive line, and outside of Tyron Smith's play at left tackle and Livings, everyone is expendable. Bernadeau started at center for one game due to injuries and he's showed position flexibility. Signing Thomas, a right guard, and moving Bernadeau to center, could be a possibility.
The duo addresses the Cowboys' needs in free agency and discuss the overall team philosophies in this ESPN Insider column.
Backup guard Donald Thomas of the New England Patriots is mentioned as potential free agent target for the Cowboys.
Thomas, a 27-year-old four-year veteran, is an effective run-blocker who also would improve the Cowboys' protection of Romo. He's a smart, developing interior linemen who also offers value as an emergency center.
Of course, the Cowboys spent a combined $30 million on Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau last offseason. Livings had a good season until health issues derailed him late in the year. Bernadeau struggled for the most part and at one point during the season shared first-team reps with Derrick Dockery in practice. Bernadeau didn't lose his starting gig, but there was a possibility he could if he didn't improve his play.
The Cowboys need to improve the offensive line, and outside of Tyron Smith's play at left tackle and Livings, everyone is expendable. Bernadeau started at center for one game due to injuries and he's showed position flexibility. Signing Thomas, a right guard, and moving Bernadeau to center, could be a possibility.
Cowboys' cap hit nearly $90 million for 10 players
February, 11, 2013
Feb 11
11:00
AM CT
By
Calvin Watkins | ESPNDallas.com
Last week, there were reports regarding the cap space for the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots and how nearly 10 players take a good percentage of it.
The 2013 salary cap for NFL teams will be nearly $121 million.
Tom Curran of CSNNE.com reported the Patriots will have $65.9 million of cap space assigned to nine players, including quarterback Tom Brady's team-high $21.8 million cap figure.
Albert Breer of NFL Network discovered the Ravens will hand out $69 million of cap space to 10 players. Terrell Suggs has the highest figure at $13.02 million.
So what about the Cowboys? After adding up the figures, the top 10 salary-cap hits total $89.6 million, with quarterback Tony Romo leading the way at $16.8 million.
When it comes time to get under the cap -- and the Cowboys are roughly $20 million over -- reducing cap figures for several players will be important. It makes sense for the Cowboys to reduce Romo's cap hit by giving him an extension because it'll give the team flexibility to sign free agents in 2013.
If the Cowboys don't want to reduce Romo's cap figure and let him play out the 2013 season, then it'd limit what the team could do in free agency.
Brandon Carr has the second-highest cap hit at $16.3 million, and it's in his contract that his deal will be restructured. DeMarcus Ware ($11.3 million) has the third-highest cap number, and his deal also could be reworked.
The Cowboys have two interesting decisions to make with RT Doug Free ($10.02 million) and NT Jay Ratliff ($7 million). Free and Ratliff could become cap casualties, but it will also be interesting if both players return at reduced salaries.
If the Cowboys release Free and or Ratliff, they better have a replacement ready.
If Free is cut, that'd leave Jermey Parnell as the starting right tackle. Ratliff's replacement might not be on the roster. You could move Jason Hatcher to defensive tackle in the new 4-3 scheme, and Jerry Jones talked about the possibility of Tyrone Crawford also moving inside from end.
Other possibilities: Chris Canty was released by the New York Giants last week, and free agent Henry Melton of the Chicago Bears could be an expensive option to replace Ratliff.
Any moves regarding the salary cap comes with a risk. When you're over the cap like the Cowboys are, there are hard decisions to make.
Here's the Top 10 Cowboys in terms of cap numbers, along with their base salaries for 2013.
1. Tony Romo (cap number $16.8 million, base salary $11.5 million)
2. Brandon Carr (cap number $16.3 million, base salary $14.3 million)
3. DeMarcus Ware (cap number $11.3 million, base salary $5.5 million)
4. Doug Free (cap number $10.2 million, base salary $7 million)
5. Miles Austin (cap number $8.3 million, base salary $6.7 million)
6. Jason Witten (cap number $8 million, base salary $5.5 million)
7. Jay Ratliff (cap number $7 million, base salary $5 million)
8. Dan Connor (cap number $4.3 million, base salary $3 million)
9. Gerald Sensabaugh (cap number $3.8 million, base salary $3 million)
10. Orlando Scandrick (cap nunmber $3.78 million, base salary $2 million)
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| ESPNDallas.com's Todd Archer joins Coop and Nate to discuss the Cowboys' salary cap situation and Tony Romo. Listen |
Tom Curran of CSNNE.com reported the Patriots will have $65.9 million of cap space assigned to nine players, including quarterback Tom Brady's team-high $21.8 million cap figure.
Albert Breer of NFL Network discovered the Ravens will hand out $69 million of cap space to 10 players. Terrell Suggs has the highest figure at $13.02 million.
So what about the Cowboys? After adding up the figures, the top 10 salary-cap hits total $89.6 million, with quarterback Tony Romo leading the way at $16.8 million.
When it comes time to get under the cap -- and the Cowboys are roughly $20 million over -- reducing cap figures for several players will be important. It makes sense for the Cowboys to reduce Romo's cap hit by giving him an extension because it'll give the team flexibility to sign free agents in 2013.
If the Cowboys don't want to reduce Romo's cap figure and let him play out the 2013 season, then it'd limit what the team could do in free agency.
Brandon Carr has the second-highest cap hit at $16.3 million, and it's in his contract that his deal will be restructured. DeMarcus Ware ($11.3 million) has the third-highest cap number, and his deal also could be reworked.
The Cowboys have two interesting decisions to make with RT Doug Free ($10.02 million) and NT Jay Ratliff ($7 million). Free and Ratliff could become cap casualties, but it will also be interesting if both players return at reduced salaries.
If the Cowboys release Free and or Ratliff, they better have a replacement ready.
If Free is cut, that'd leave Jermey Parnell as the starting right tackle. Ratliff's replacement might not be on the roster. You could move Jason Hatcher to defensive tackle in the new 4-3 scheme, and Jerry Jones talked about the possibility of Tyrone Crawford also moving inside from end.
Other possibilities: Chris Canty was released by the New York Giants last week, and free agent Henry Melton of the Chicago Bears could be an expensive option to replace Ratliff.
Any moves regarding the salary cap comes with a risk. When you're over the cap like the Cowboys are, there are hard decisions to make.
Here's the Top 10 Cowboys in terms of cap numbers, along with their base salaries for 2013.
1. Tony Romo (cap number $16.8 million, base salary $11.5 million)
2. Brandon Carr (cap number $16.3 million, base salary $14.3 million)
3. DeMarcus Ware (cap number $11.3 million, base salary $5.5 million)
4. Doug Free (cap number $10.2 million, base salary $7 million)
5. Miles Austin (cap number $8.3 million, base salary $6.7 million)
6. Jason Witten (cap number $8 million, base salary $5.5 million)
7. Jay Ratliff (cap number $7 million, base salary $5 million)
8. Dan Connor (cap number $4.3 million, base salary $3 million)
9. Gerald Sensabaugh (cap number $3.8 million, base salary $3 million)
10. Orlando Scandrick (cap nunmber $3.78 million, base salary $2 million)
Patriots sign Andre Holmes to practice squad
January, 8, 2013
Jan 8
4:50
PM CT
By
Calvin Watkins | ESPNDallas.com
The New England Patriots signed wide receiver Andre Holmes to the practice squad today.
In some ways you have to wonder if the Cowboys missed out on Holmes. Todd Archer talked about this Monday.
The Cowboys gave Holmes every opportunity to make the 53-man roster as the No. 3 receiver, but he was just too inconsistent. As Archer pointed out Monday, the failure to pass the conditioning test in training camp was a disappointing start to the 2012 season.
Of all the players who needed to pass that test, it was Holmes.
Holmes had the right measurements, 6-foot-4, and he was fast enough to make plays. But inconsistency hurt him more than anything else, and coach Jason Garrett preaches this to his team all the time. It's one of the main reasons why Dwayne Harris earned more playing time as the season progressed.
Now, Holmes is with New England and it will be interesting to see how the Patriots develop him in the future.
In some ways you have to wonder if the Cowboys missed out on Holmes. Todd Archer talked about this Monday.
The Cowboys gave Holmes every opportunity to make the 53-man roster as the No. 3 receiver, but he was just too inconsistent. As Archer pointed out Monday, the failure to pass the conditioning test in training camp was a disappointing start to the 2012 season.
Of all the players who needed to pass that test, it was Holmes.
Holmes had the right measurements, 6-foot-4, and he was fast enough to make plays. But inconsistency hurt him more than anything else, and coach Jason Garrett preaches this to his team all the time. It's one of the main reasons why Dwayne Harris earned more playing time as the season progressed.
Now, Holmes is with New England and it will be interesting to see how the Patriots develop him in the future.
DeMarco Murray learning Lawrence Vickers
June, 13, 2012
6/13/12
10:31
AM CT
By
Calvin Watkins | ESPNDallas.com
IRVING, Texas --Fullback Tony Fiammetta was a joy for running back DeMarco Murray last season. But Fiammetta is gone, having signed with New England, and the Dallas Cowboys replaced him with Lawrence Vickers, who was released by Houston.
Vickers blocked for Arian Foster last season and we all know how good he is. Foster rushed for 1,224 yards last season, fifth in the NFL.
Vickers said he was shocked to be released by the Texans, but it was more about the salary cap than performance. The Cowboys value the fullback position and were of the belief Vickers was a better option than Fiammetta.
"So far so good," Murray said of his work with Vickers. "I'm loving him and the enthusiasm he brings to the running back group and what he brings to the practice field and what he brings to his team. So I'm excited to see what he's going to do in training camp."
Last season, Murray rushed for 897 yards, 22nd in the league, with Fiammetta as the primary blocker. Each player has to learn the tendencies of the other. Though Vickers has said he has to be a comfort level for Murray more than anything else.
Murray said he will watch film with Vickers on a daily basis and point out plays he likes and what he's looking for after he gets the handoff.
"His eyes are my eyes, and my eyes are his eyes," Murray said. "We're going to continue to work on that and continue to work on the chemistry. It's still early. We've been practicing for only three weeks and we have a lot of time to work."
Vickers blocked for Arian Foster last season and we all know how good he is. Foster rushed for 1,224 yards last season, fifth in the NFL.
Vickers said he was shocked to be released by the Texans, but it was more about the salary cap than performance. The Cowboys value the fullback position and were of the belief Vickers was a better option than Fiammetta.
"So far so good," Murray said of his work with Vickers. "I'm loving him and the enthusiasm he brings to the running back group and what he brings to the practice field and what he brings to his team. So I'm excited to see what he's going to do in training camp."
Last season, Murray rushed for 897 yards, 22nd in the league, with Fiammetta as the primary blocker. Each player has to learn the tendencies of the other. Though Vickers has said he has to be a comfort level for Murray more than anything else.
Murray said he will watch film with Vickers on a daily basis and point out plays he likes and what he's looking for after he gets the handoff.
"His eyes are my eyes, and my eyes are his eyes," Murray said. "We're going to continue to work on that and continue to work on the chemistry. It's still early. We've been practicing for only three weeks and we have a lot of time to work."
Pats sign former Cowboy Jesse Holley
June, 11, 2012
6/11/12
5:15
PM CT
By
Mike Reiss | ESPNDallas.com
The Patriots signed receiver/special teamer Jesse Holley, who played the last two seasons with the Cowboys, as well as rookie tight end Tyler Urban, the club announced.
The Patriots' receiver ranks have been thinned in recent weeks with the release of Anthony Gonzalez and Chad Ochocinco. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Holley played in 28 regular-season games over the last two years, totaling seven receptions for 169 yards.
Holley, who played in college at North Carolina, first entered the NFL as a free agent with the Bengals in 2007. He was out of football in 2008 and then was awarded the final spot on the 2009 Dallas training camp roster after finishing as the winning contestant on former Cowboy Michael Irvin's nationally broadcast reality television show, "4th and Long." Holley spent the entire 2009 season and the first part of the 2010 season on the Dallas practice squad before being signed to the 53-man roster.
The Patriots' receiver ranks have been thinned in recent weeks with the release of Anthony Gonzalez and Chad Ochocinco. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Holley played in 28 regular-season games over the last two years, totaling seven receptions for 169 yards.
Holley, who played in college at North Carolina, first entered the NFL as a free agent with the Bengals in 2007. He was out of football in 2008 and then was awarded the final spot on the 2009 Dallas training camp roster after finishing as the winning contestant on former Cowboy Michael Irvin's nationally broadcast reality television show, "4th and Long." Holley spent the entire 2009 season and the first part of the 2010 season on the Dallas practice squad before being signed to the 53-man roster.
ESPN blogger mock: Dallas picks Brockers
April, 23, 2012
4/23/12
3:01
PM CT
By
Dan Graziano | ESPNDallas.com
Things didn't work out exactly the way I planned for the Dallas Cowboys in the ESPN blogger mock draft Monday. Yes, the Eagles traded up to No. 7 to take Fletcher Cox, a player the Cowboys like a lot. But for the Cowboys I decided not to get into such excitement. First of all, they don't have the cushion the Eagles have with two second-round picks. And second of all, they need to add depth all along the roster, so I decided that if they traded they'd come away with more picks rather than fewer.
As the draft wound on into the middle of the first round, I was thinking my top Cowboys target, Alabama safety Mark Barron, would be there at No. 14. So when James Walker of the AFC East blog called on behalf of the Patriots and offered a first-round pick (No. 27 overall) and a second-round pick (No. 48), I said no. James pointed out that each side of the deal added up to exactly 1,100 points on the NFL draft trade value chart, and for a second I thought we should make the deal just based on that coincidence alone. But I held off, thinking Barron would fall to 14.
Little did I know, James was also talking to Mike Sando about the Seahawks' No. 12 overall pick. James offered Mike both of the Patriots' first-round picks (No. 27 and No. 31) for the No. 12 pick and a fourth-rounder (N0. 106). Guess I should have asked James for more, because that's a steal for Sando, who happily gave up the No. 12 and began making plans for what to do with his two first-rounders. James moved up to 12 and took Barron for the Patriots, and I started fielding offers for the No. 14 pick.
No one was interested, though, so when 14 rolled around, I took the player I believed would be the highest on the Cowboys' board at that point -- LSU defensive lineman Michael Brockers. What I like about Brockers for the Cowboys is that he's a more polished, NFL-ready prospect than is Dontari Poe (who would fall all the way to the Steelers at No. 24!) and that he's versatile enough to play any spot on the Cowboys' defensive line. He can play inside as a defensive tackle alongside Jay Ratliff when they line up in 4-3 sets. He can play end in a 3-4 (and allow them to move on from Kenyon Coleman or Marcus Spears if they so choose). He can spell Ratliff at the nose when and if they decide to move Ratliff outside. I just felt as though he'd appeal to Rob Ryan as a guy who could do a lot for him -- and do it right away -- in a defense that relies on constantly changing looks and fronts.
I thought about Poe, and Quenton Coples, and Stephon Gilmore, and Dre Kirkpatrick, and Courtney Upshaw. But in the end, I believe that, of the post-Barron choices, Brockers was the one that fit the Cowboys the best.
(NOTE: Stanford guard David DeCastro was also gone, at 11 to the Chiefs, but as you know I believe the Cowboys should be focused on defense in this round. And probably all of them.)
So what do you think, Cowboys fans? Did I get it right? Did I pick the wrong guy? Was I wrong to turn down the Patriots' offer? I eagerly await your feedback.
As the draft wound on into the middle of the first round, I was thinking my top Cowboys target, Alabama safety Mark Barron, would be there at No. 14. So when James Walker of the AFC East blog called on behalf of the Patriots and offered a first-round pick (No. 27 overall) and a second-round pick (No. 48), I said no. James pointed out that each side of the deal added up to exactly 1,100 points on the NFL draft trade value chart, and for a second I thought we should make the deal just based on that coincidence alone. But I held off, thinking Barron would fall to 14.
Little did I know, James was also talking to Mike Sando about the Seahawks' No. 12 overall pick. James offered Mike both of the Patriots' first-round picks (No. 27 and No. 31) for the No. 12 pick and a fourth-rounder (N0. 106). Guess I should have asked James for more, because that's a steal for Sando, who happily gave up the No. 12 and began making plans for what to do with his two first-rounders. James moved up to 12 and took Barron for the Patriots, and I started fielding offers for the No. 14 pick.
No one was interested, though, so when 14 rolled around, I took the player I believed would be the highest on the Cowboys' board at that point -- LSU defensive lineman Michael Brockers. What I like about Brockers for the Cowboys is that he's a more polished, NFL-ready prospect than is Dontari Poe (who would fall all the way to the Steelers at No. 24!) and that he's versatile enough to play any spot on the Cowboys' defensive line. He can play inside as a defensive tackle alongside Jay Ratliff when they line up in 4-3 sets. He can play end in a 3-4 (and allow them to move on from Kenyon Coleman or Marcus Spears if they so choose). He can spell Ratliff at the nose when and if they decide to move Ratliff outside. I just felt as though he'd appeal to Rob Ryan as a guy who could do a lot for him -- and do it right away -- in a defense that relies on constantly changing looks and fronts.
I thought about Poe, and Quenton Coples, and Stephon Gilmore, and Dre Kirkpatrick, and Courtney Upshaw. But in the end, I believe that, of the post-Barron choices, Brockers was the one that fit the Cowboys the best.
(NOTE: Stanford guard David DeCastro was also gone, at 11 to the Chiefs, but as you know I believe the Cowboys should be focused on defense in this round. And probably all of them.)
So what do you think, Cowboys fans? Did I get it right? Did I pick the wrong guy? Was I wrong to turn down the Patriots' offer? I eagerly await your feedback.
Bill Parcells versus the Cowboys
April, 9, 2012
4/09/12
1:32
PM CT
By
Calvin Watkins | ESPNDallas.com
We're not sure when the Saints will play the Cowboys this season -- the NFL schedule is to be released this month -- but it's clear a new coach will take over for New Orleans now that Sean Payton's appeal of his season-long suspension was turned down.
Bill Parcells is one man who could take over for Payton in 2012.
The last time Parcells coached against the Cowboys was Dec. 19, 1999, when he ran the New York Jets. Joe Hall's 37-yard field goal beat the Cowboys 22-21 at Texas Stadium. Parcells' defense picked off two Troy Aikman passes that day.
Parcells went 9-7 against the Cowboys when he coached the New York Giants, including a six-game win streak on the back end of his tenure.
In New England, Parcells coached against Dallas once, losing in 1996.
Cowboys owner/general manager Jerry Jones said he still respects Parcells and considers him a friend. It will be an interesting game if Parcells replaces Payton in 2012.
Several players Parcells drafted or signed are still with the Cowboys, including Tony Romo, DeMarcus Ware, Marcus Spears, Miles Austin, Jay Ratliff and Jason Witten.
Bill Parcells is one man who could take over for Payton in 2012.
The last time Parcells coached against the Cowboys was Dec. 19, 1999, when he ran the New York Jets. Joe Hall's 37-yard field goal beat the Cowboys 22-21 at Texas Stadium. Parcells' defense picked off two Troy Aikman passes that day.
Parcells went 9-7 against the Cowboys when he coached the New York Giants, including a six-game win streak on the back end of his tenure.
In New England, Parcells coached against Dallas once, losing in 1996.
Cowboys owner/general manager Jerry Jones said he still respects Parcells and considers him a friend. It will be an interesting game if Parcells replaces Payton in 2012.
Several players Parcells drafted or signed are still with the Cowboys, including Tony Romo, DeMarcus Ware, Marcus Spears, Miles Austin, Jay Ratliff and Jason Witten.
The Cowboys' Jason Witten shares insight on fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski's injury and playing against the Giants and Patriots.
Scandrick: Davone Bess better than Wes Welker
November, 24, 2011
11/24/11
8:50
PM CT
By
Calvin Watkins | ESPNDallas.com
ARLINGTON, Texas -- After Dallas' 20-19 victory over the Miami Dolphins on Thanksgiving Day, Cowboys cornerback Orlando Scandrick was asked about the Dolphins receivers.
Scandrick is of the belief that Miami's Davone Bess is a better slot receiver than New England's Wes Welker.
On Oct. 16 against the Cowboys, Welker, covered mainly by Scandrick, finished with six catches for 45 yards and one touchdown. Scandrick covered Welker on the touchdown reception.
Thursday, Bess finished with just two catches for 29 yards, one of which was a 24-yarder. But the receiver must have made an impression on Scandrick.
"Davone Bess is better than Wes Welker," Scandrick said. "Better than Wes Welker. Better than Wes Welker. Stronger, little bigger in the lower body. He’s better, he’s faster than you think he is, stronger than you think he is in a different system, and I’ve been covering him since he was at the University of Hawaii."
Scandrick played college ball at Boise State.
It's an interesting comment from Scandrick, considering Welker's numbers far surpass those of Bess.
Scandrick has struggled the last two weeks in coverage, but the coaching staff believes he's still a good cover corner.
Scandrick is of the belief that Miami's Davone Bess is a better slot receiver than New England's Wes Welker.
On Oct. 16 against the Cowboys, Welker, covered mainly by Scandrick, finished with six catches for 45 yards and one touchdown. Scandrick covered Welker on the touchdown reception.
Thursday, Bess finished with just two catches for 29 yards, one of which was a 24-yarder. But the receiver must have made an impression on Scandrick.
"Davone Bess is better than Wes Welker," Scandrick said. "Better than Wes Welker. Better than Wes Welker. Stronger, little bigger in the lower body. He’s better, he’s faster than you think he is, stronger than you think he is in a different system, and I’ve been covering him since he was at the University of Hawaii."
Scandrick played college ball at Boise State.
It's an interesting comment from Scandrick, considering Welker's numbers far surpass those of Bess.
Scandrick has struggled the last two weeks in coverage, but the coaching staff believes he's still a good cover corner.
No conspiracy on Dez Bryant
October, 20, 2011
10/20/11
3:05
PM CT
By
Calvin Watkins | ESPNDallas.com
IRVING -- Dez Bryant hasn't had a catch in the second half of three games this season, including the last two.
On the year, the wide receiver has 14 catches for 249 yards with three touchdowns.
In the second half of games, Bryant has just two catches for 50 yards and no touchdowns. He also has no catches in the last two minutes of any half.
What gives?
Bryant is a dynamic player who the Cowboys view as a threat in the passing game.
"There isn't any conspiracy going first of all that we haven't gotten him the ball as much as we liked too or as much as he probably liked for us too," wide receivers coach Jimmy Robinson said after Thursday's practice. "This is the way it is in the National Football League quite honestly. Some weeks you get it a lot and some weeks not as much sometimes it comes early, sometimes it comes late. It doesn't always come steady throughout the whole game. Sometimes it doesn't come at all. And if you're a receiver in the National Football League you realize that sometimes it rains and sometimes it pours and sometimes there's a drought. It's just the way it goes."
Bryant didn't speak with reporters on Thursday, however, he was asked after the loss to the New England Patriots did the defense prevent him from getting any catches on Sunday. Bryant said no.
The return of Miles Austin should open the door for Bryant to get some catches because it takes defenders away from the second-year receiver. Bryant is getting single coverage yet not getting the ball.
Quarterback Tony Romo said he believes in Bryant and said described it as "great. A great feel for the game."
Romo said defenses dictate what he can do to take care of any of his receivers and mentioned Miles Austin and Jason Witten in that regard.
The bottom line is Bryant needs to get the ball and the Cowboys understand that.
"I think teams do what they do most of the time," said Robinson, who noted defenses are not preventing Bryant from getting the ball. "If it happens that they're coverage doubles him sometimes, then I don't really, honestly see an awful lot where they're trying to do something to Dez and not to someone else, I think we have too many weapons for them to try and do that."
On the year, the wide receiver has 14 catches for 249 yards with three touchdowns.
In the second half of games, Bryant has just two catches for 50 yards and no touchdowns. He also has no catches in the last two minutes of any half.
What gives?
Bryant is a dynamic player who the Cowboys view as a threat in the passing game.
"There isn't any conspiracy going first of all that we haven't gotten him the ball as much as we liked too or as much as he probably liked for us too," wide receivers coach Jimmy Robinson said after Thursday's practice. "This is the way it is in the National Football League quite honestly. Some weeks you get it a lot and some weeks not as much sometimes it comes early, sometimes it comes late. It doesn't always come steady throughout the whole game. Sometimes it doesn't come at all. And if you're a receiver in the National Football League you realize that sometimes it rains and sometimes it pours and sometimes there's a drought. It's just the way it goes."
Bryant didn't speak with reporters on Thursday, however, he was asked after the loss to the New England Patriots did the defense prevent him from getting any catches on Sunday. Bryant said no.
The return of Miles Austin should open the door for Bryant to get some catches because it takes defenders away from the second-year receiver. Bryant is getting single coverage yet not getting the ball.
Quarterback Tony Romo said he believes in Bryant and said described it as "great. A great feel for the game."
Romo said defenses dictate what he can do to take care of any of his receivers and mentioned Miles Austin and Jason Witten in that regard.
The bottom line is Bryant needs to get the ball and the Cowboys understand that.
"I think teams do what they do most of the time," said Robinson, who noted defenses are not preventing Bryant from getting the ball. "If it happens that they're coverage doubles him sometimes, then I don't really, honestly see an awful lot where they're trying to do something to Dez and not to someone else, I think we have too many weapons for them to try and do that."
Scout's Eye: Cowboys-Patriots review
October, 18, 2011
10/18/11
11:30
AM CT
By Bryan Broaddus | ESPNDallas.com
After a much-needed bye, the Cowboys traveled east to take on the New England Patriots and their Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady.
The theme all week in the media was how Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan would choose to attack Brady and this Patriots offense that puts so much pressure on your ability to not only cover their outstanding skill players, but still keep enough defenders in the box to deal with a running game that was physical at the point of attack.
I will give Ryan and his defensive staff a great deal of credit for putting together a game plan that made it difficult for the Patriots to move the ball for the majority of the day. Ryan's troops were able to force the Patriots into something that they don't normally do -- turn the ball over. The only other game I studied getting ready for this game in which I saw the Patriots struggle with turnovers was their loss to the Bills.
I thought it would be difficult for the Cowboys to force this Patriots offense into turnovers, but they forced fumbles and put enough pressure on Brady to force him into two interceptions. Ryan did it with a variety of fronts and coverages.
One of Brady's greatest strengths of is his ability to come to the line, check the defense and move his personnel around to make you pay for the look you are giving him. Ryan played with his nickel-and-dime packages throughout the contest, which allowed him to get his best cover men on the field at all times. It was the first time that he was able to do this since the first week of training camp in San Antonio.
ORLANDO SCANDRICK VS. WES WELKER
We all know the type of player that Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker is. He is a dynamic weapon who rarely allows the defense to rest. He will line up all over the formation and can be used in so many different ways.
With all that being said, there was no doubt in my mind that Orlando Scandrick could line up against him and battle him for 60 minutes. Welker is so dangerous not due to his speed or hands, but his quickness. He is an explosive athlete. Scandrick has always been able to play with quickness.
Of all the cornerbacks on the Cowboys roster, Scandrick is best suited to play the slot because he is comfortable carrying receivers all over the field. When you play the slot in this league, you better be ready to have to cover the whole field.
Where Scandrick was so effective was his ability to understand what Welker was trying to do to him.
One of the best examples of this was on the last drive of the game for the Patriots. With 1:39 left and the ball sitting on the Cowboys 30, Ryan had his dime package on the field. At the snap, safeties Gerald Sensabaugh and Abram Elam dropped into a Cover 2 look with the middle of the field open.
Scandrick was one-on-one in the slot with Welker, who started on an inside route. Scandrick was able to use his quickness, maintain his position and defend the ball as Brady tried to fit it into a tight window. The cornerback was right there to knock it down.
If Scandrick does not get his hand on that ball, there is an outstanding chance that Welker scores on the play. Most cornerbacks in this league playing that route would have been flagged for pass interference.
I was not one bit surprised that Scandrick was able to play Welker so well. His conditioning appeared good and I knew that he would be prepared mentally to have to deal with Welker.
For the Cowboys going forward, this was a great sign with Scandrick back in the lineup. He can do so much in coverage and also be used as a blitzer, which is something that Ryan makes as part of his package.
JASON GARRETT'S GAME MANAGEMENT
I respect Jason Garrett as a head coach. I believe he is the right man for the job, but I also believe that with the newness of the job comes situations in game management that will need to be addressed.
I can't tell you how many questions I get about the play calling, whether it is at the end of a game or in the red zone. I don't understand why everyone is so up in arms about Garrett's red-zone play calling. What have you been watching the last two years?
I go back to a game in which Garrett tried to force the ball to special teams ace Sam Hurd against Champ Bailey in Denver while Jason Witten blocked air. I remember a game against the Chargers where Leonard Davis and Andre Gurode couldn't secure the linebacker through the "A" gap but Garrett continued to call that play until Marion Barber was stopped on downs.
In a game in which the Cowboys needed touchdowns, they had to settle for field goals. Let's take a look at the plays that were called with 6:39 left in the fourth quarter with the ball on the Patriots 10:
First-and-goal from the 10: Witten starts at fullback then motions left, Martellus Bennett is in line with Miles Austin in the right slot. Dez Bryant is wide right. Tashard Choice is the single back. The Patriots are in their nickel package.
Garrett makes a nice call on a delay screen to Bennett, who holds for just a second as a blocker then releases to his left. Guard Bill Nagy and center Phil Costa release from the inside to work in front of Bennett. Nagy is the lead blocker and throws his body into the support. Costa misses his man, who trips Bennett.
On the front side, Andre Carter has rushed wide around left tackle Doug Free, who doesn't finish his block. Carter, hustling on the play, gets back to the outside and makes the tackle after a 5-yard gain.
Second-and-goal from the 5: Garrett goes with the gun, putting Choice in the game next to Romo. Kevin Kowalski is now in the game at left guard because of the injury to Nagy. Austin is in the slot to the right with Laurent Robinson wide right. Bryant is outside left. Witten is in line on the right side. Patriots are in regular personnel.
This was the one shot that Garrett was going to take with Bryant on the jump ball. Bryant goes inside then works back out near the sideline. Leigh Bodden is in coverage and is off-balance but recovers. Witten goes vertical but is doubled, Austin runs the out. Robinson is one-on-one with Devin McCourty, who is in man coverage runs across the back of the end zone with some separation right to left. Choice goes through the line then works to his left.
Tony Romo looks left to check Witten and Robinson but comes back to the left side. Bryant is deep in the left corner without much room. Safety James Ihedigbo is sitting on the goal line in coverage with Brandon Spikes waiting on Choice. Romo throws the ball into the ground.
Third-and-goal from the 5: Robinson is wide right and comes in motion toward Austin in the slot. Romo is in the gun with Witten to his right and Choice to his left. Bryant is wide to the left with Ihedigbo once again on the goal line. Bryant releases inside.
At left tackle, Free checks inside with his hand on Spikes, who is blitzing from the backside, but doesn't pick him up. Costa blocks back, getting his man. Spikes is now chasing the play from the backside as Free lets him go to pick up Carter. Spikes quickly closes down as Choice gets the ball from Romo on the shovel pass.
Play looks like it has a chance if Spikes was blocked, but he is not and Choice is tackled for a 3-yard loss, which results in a field-goal attempt.
Here is the breakdown of the second-to-last series for the Cowboys, when Garrett choose to run the ball three straight times:
The situation for the Cowboys was first-and-10 from their own 28-yard line with 3:36 remaining and the Cowboys holding a 16–13 lead. Before the snap, Romo has to move Bryant across the formation because he was lined up in the wrong spot. Bryant is now wide right with Witten lined up behind him before coming in motion inside to line up right off Tyron Smith's hip. Bennett is in line on the left side, Phillips is lined up at full back.
At the snap of the ball, Spikes attacks Costa on the blitz over his nose, which Costa tries to adjust to handle his charge. As Costa is fighting Spikes, he bumps into Phillips, whose path is now thrown off. DeMarco Murray never gets started with the ball in his hand. Phillips doesn't get enough of his man. Witten on the front side is beaten by Ihedigbo, who makes the tackle for a 2-yard loss.
Second and 12 after a Patriots time out: Garrett sticks with his three tight end package. Austin is wide right, Murray is the single back. Witten is in line to the left, Bennett on the right. Phillips is a wing left. Phillips motions left to right, Kowalski pulls from his left to right.
The line blocks back to the left. Kosier blocking down hits Spikes but falls off the block, which causes Murray to have to adjust. Bennett doesn't move his feet at the point of attack. Shaun Ellis swims Bennett and is able to adjust to Murray for the tackle and a loss of one.
Third and 13: Garrett goes with three wide receivers and one tight end. Witten slot left, Austin and Robinson outside left. Bryant is lined up wide right. Shotgun with Choice left of Romo. Patriots counter with seven defensive backs. But Tyron Smith is flagged for a false start.
Third and 18: Garrett keeps the same personnel group in the game. The Cowboys go bunch left with Witten, Austin, and Bryant. Robinson is wide right with Choice lined up left of Romo. The Patriots go with six defensive backs. Austin motions left out of the bunch. The Cowboys use draw blocking on the inside handoff to Choice. Costa and Kowalski again cannot handle Wilfork, who makes the tackle.
ROMO'S INTERECEPTION
Bryant is wide right, and Austin is in the slot inside of him. Witten is slot left. Robinson is outside him. Choice is to the right of Romo, who steps up for the blitz pickup. Patriots cornerback Kyle Arrington is covering Austin in the slot and drops into his zone. Bryant runs up 8 yards then inside but really rounds the route off at the top. Choice picks up Spikes on the inside blitz, but Spikes spins off him because he doesn't hit him square.
Romo is affected by the pressure in his face and now is trying to throw the ball off his back foot. Smith gives up outside pressure to Andre Carter. As Bryant is running his route, I question whether he is really running it at full speed. Romo's pass was way off his back foot and not accurate, hitting Arrington in the chest. I thought it was a poor route but a poor pass as well.
I will give Ryan and his defensive staff a great deal of credit for putting together a game plan that made it difficult for the Patriots to move the ball for the majority of the day. Ryan's troops were able to force the Patriots into something that they don't normally do -- turn the ball over. The only other game I studied getting ready for this game in which I saw the Patriots struggle with turnovers was their loss to the Bills.
I thought it would be difficult for the Cowboys to force this Patriots offense into turnovers, but they forced fumbles and put enough pressure on Brady to force him into two interceptions. Ryan did it with a variety of fronts and coverages.
One of Brady's greatest strengths of is his ability to come to the line, check the defense and move his personnel around to make you pay for the look you are giving him. Ryan played with his nickel-and-dime packages throughout the contest, which allowed him to get his best cover men on the field at all times. It was the first time that he was able to do this since the first week of training camp in San Antonio.
ORLANDO SCANDRICK VS. WES WELKER
We all know the type of player that Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker is. He is a dynamic weapon who rarely allows the defense to rest. He will line up all over the formation and can be used in so many different ways.
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Of all the cornerbacks on the Cowboys roster, Scandrick is best suited to play the slot because he is comfortable carrying receivers all over the field. When you play the slot in this league, you better be ready to have to cover the whole field.
Where Scandrick was so effective was his ability to understand what Welker was trying to do to him.
One of the best examples of this was on the last drive of the game for the Patriots. With 1:39 left and the ball sitting on the Cowboys 30, Ryan had his dime package on the field. At the snap, safeties Gerald Sensabaugh and Abram Elam dropped into a Cover 2 look with the middle of the field open.
Scandrick was one-on-one in the slot with Welker, who started on an inside route. Scandrick was able to use his quickness, maintain his position and defend the ball as Brady tried to fit it into a tight window. The cornerback was right there to knock it down.
If Scandrick does not get his hand on that ball, there is an outstanding chance that Welker scores on the play. Most cornerbacks in this league playing that route would have been flagged for pass interference.
I was not one bit surprised that Scandrick was able to play Welker so well. His conditioning appeared good and I knew that he would be prepared mentally to have to deal with Welker.
For the Cowboys going forward, this was a great sign with Scandrick back in the lineup. He can do so much in coverage and also be used as a blitzer, which is something that Ryan makes as part of his package.
JASON GARRETT'S GAME MANAGEMENT
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Stew Milne/US PresswireJason Garrett's red-zone play calling shouldn't come as a surprise.
Stew Milne/US PresswireJason Garrett's red-zone play calling shouldn't come as a surprise.I can't tell you how many questions I get about the play calling, whether it is at the end of a game or in the red zone. I don't understand why everyone is so up in arms about Garrett's red-zone play calling. What have you been watching the last two years?
I go back to a game in which Garrett tried to force the ball to special teams ace Sam Hurd against Champ Bailey in Denver while Jason Witten blocked air. I remember a game against the Chargers where Leonard Davis and Andre Gurode couldn't secure the linebacker through the "A" gap but Garrett continued to call that play until Marion Barber was stopped on downs.
In a game in which the Cowboys needed touchdowns, they had to settle for field goals. Let's take a look at the plays that were called with 6:39 left in the fourth quarter with the ball on the Patriots 10:
First-and-goal from the 10: Witten starts at fullback then motions left, Martellus Bennett is in line with Miles Austin in the right slot. Dez Bryant is wide right. Tashard Choice is the single back. The Patriots are in their nickel package.
Garrett makes a nice call on a delay screen to Bennett, who holds for just a second as a blocker then releases to his left. Guard Bill Nagy and center Phil Costa release from the inside to work in front of Bennett. Nagy is the lead blocker and throws his body into the support. Costa misses his man, who trips Bennett.
On the front side, Andre Carter has rushed wide around left tackle Doug Free, who doesn't finish his block. Carter, hustling on the play, gets back to the outside and makes the tackle after a 5-yard gain.
Second-and-goal from the 5: Garrett goes with the gun, putting Choice in the game next to Romo. Kevin Kowalski is now in the game at left guard because of the injury to Nagy. Austin is in the slot to the right with Laurent Robinson wide right. Bryant is outside left. Witten is in line on the right side. Patriots are in regular personnel.
This was the one shot that Garrett was going to take with Bryant on the jump ball. Bryant goes inside then works back out near the sideline. Leigh Bodden is in coverage and is off-balance but recovers. Witten goes vertical but is doubled, Austin runs the out. Robinson is one-on-one with Devin McCourty, who is in man coverage runs across the back of the end zone with some separation right to left. Choice goes through the line then works to his left.
Tony Romo looks left to check Witten and Robinson but comes back to the left side. Bryant is deep in the left corner without much room. Safety James Ihedigbo is sitting on the goal line in coverage with Brandon Spikes waiting on Choice. Romo throws the ball into the ground.
Third-and-goal from the 5: Robinson is wide right and comes in motion toward Austin in the slot. Romo is in the gun with Witten to his right and Choice to his left. Bryant is wide to the left with Ihedigbo once again on the goal line. Bryant releases inside.
At left tackle, Free checks inside with his hand on Spikes, who is blitzing from the backside, but doesn't pick him up. Costa blocks back, getting his man. Spikes is now chasing the play from the backside as Free lets him go to pick up Carter. Spikes quickly closes down as Choice gets the ball from Romo on the shovel pass.
Play looks like it has a chance if Spikes was blocked, but he is not and Choice is tackled for a 3-yard loss, which results in a field-goal attempt.
Here is the breakdown of the second-to-last series for the Cowboys, when Garrett choose to run the ball three straight times:
The situation for the Cowboys was first-and-10 from their own 28-yard line with 3:36 remaining and the Cowboys holding a 16–13 lead. Before the snap, Romo has to move Bryant across the formation because he was lined up in the wrong spot. Bryant is now wide right with Witten lined up behind him before coming in motion inside to line up right off Tyron Smith's hip. Bennett is in line on the left side, Phillips is lined up at full back.
At the snap of the ball, Spikes attacks Costa on the blitz over his nose, which Costa tries to adjust to handle his charge. As Costa is fighting Spikes, he bumps into Phillips, whose path is now thrown off. DeMarco Murray never gets started with the ball in his hand. Phillips doesn't get enough of his man. Witten on the front side is beaten by Ihedigbo, who makes the tackle for a 2-yard loss.
Second and 12 after a Patriots time out: Garrett sticks with his three tight end package. Austin is wide right, Murray is the single back. Witten is in line to the left, Bennett on the right. Phillips is a wing left. Phillips motions left to right, Kowalski pulls from his left to right.
The line blocks back to the left. Kosier blocking down hits Spikes but falls off the block, which causes Murray to have to adjust. Bennett doesn't move his feet at the point of attack. Shaun Ellis swims Bennett and is able to adjust to Murray for the tackle and a loss of one.
Third and 13: Garrett goes with three wide receivers and one tight end. Witten slot left, Austin and Robinson outside left. Bryant is lined up wide right. Shotgun with Choice left of Romo. Patriots counter with seven defensive backs. But Tyron Smith is flagged for a false start.
Third and 18: Garrett keeps the same personnel group in the game. The Cowboys go bunch left with Witten, Austin, and Bryant. Robinson is wide right with Choice lined up left of Romo. The Patriots go with six defensive backs. Austin motions left out of the bunch. The Cowboys use draw blocking on the inside handoff to Choice. Costa and Kowalski again cannot handle Wilfork, who makes the tackle.
ROMO'S INTERECEPTION
Bryant is wide right, and Austin is in the slot inside of him. Witten is slot left. Robinson is outside him. Choice is to the right of Romo, who steps up for the blitz pickup. Patriots cornerback Kyle Arrington is covering Austin in the slot and drops into his zone. Bryant runs up 8 yards then inside but really rounds the route off at the top. Choice picks up Spikes on the inside blitz, but Spikes spins off him because he doesn't hit him square.
Romo is affected by the pressure in his face and now is trying to throw the ball off his back foot. Smith gives up outside pressure to Andre Carter. As Bryant is running his route, I question whether he is really running it at full speed. Romo's pass was way off his back foot and not accurate, hitting Arrington in the chest. I thought it was a poor route but a poor pass as well.
Numbers show Garrett's shovel-pass call was defensible
October, 17, 2011
10/17/11
11:31
AM CT
By Alok D. Pattani / ESPN Stats & Information
With 5:52 left in the 4th quarter and the score tied at 13 in Sunday’s game against the Patriots, the Cowboys faced and 3rd-and-goal from the NE 5. The play Dallas ran was a shovel pass to Tashard Choice that was stuffed for a 3-yard loss, forcing the Cowboys to kick a FG for a 3-point lead instead of going ahead by a touchdown.
The Patriots eventually drove down for the winning TD and won the game by a margin of 20-16. Because of this, many have questioned Jason Garrett’s decision to call the shovel pass, which can be seen as conservatively “playing for the field goal” instead of aggressively going for the TD, especially when going up against a strong Patriots offense that would have 5+ minutes to get either a tying FG or a winning TD.
A mathematical look at this play call using ESPN Stats & Information’s win probability estimates and NFL success rates on various play types in goal-to-go situations shows that this shovel pass was not that bad of a call. At most, the play call (not counting the actual execution of it) cost the Cowboys about 1-2% in terms of expected win probability, well within the margin of error based on the individual tendencies of his own offense or the opposing that a coach might pick up on leading up to or during the game.
Since the Cowboys had 5 yards to go, we can assume they would pass (runs are rare in this situation), but we can see how the numbers move based on their decision to throw a pass behind the line of scrimmage (as the shovel pass was) as opposed to throwing one into the end zone (like a back-shoulder fade or slant to Dez Bryant, as some have suggested).
We will consider three possible outcomes for each type of pass play: 1) touchdown, 2) no touchdown, but maintain possession, and 3) an interception (assuming a touchback). To assign payoffs to each of the possible outcomes, we will use ESPN Stats & Information’s win probability estimates for each of these situations:
Cowboys win probability if TD: 80%
Cowboys win probability if no TD but maintain possession: 62%
Cowboys win probability if Int (assuming touchback): 45%
Now, we can look back at NFL success rates on 3rd-and-goal pass plays from the 4-6 yardline by distance thrown using video-tracked data since 2008.
Throw Pass Behind Line of Scrimmage
Chance of Outcomes Based on NFL Averages Since 2008
Chance of TD: 31%
Chance of no TD, keep possession: 69%
Chance of Int: 0%
Expected Win Probability for Pass Behind Line of Scrimmage: (0.31)*(0.80) + (0.69)*(0.62) + (0.00)*(0.45) = 68%
Throw Pass into End Zone
Chance of Outcomes Based on NFL Averages Since 2008
Chance of TD: 40%
Chance of no TD, keep possession: 58%
Chance of Int: 2%
Expected Win Probability for Pass Into End Zone: (0.40)*(0.80) + (0.58)*(0.62) + (0.02)*(0.45) = 69%
As you can see, choosing to pass the ball behind the line as opposed to into the end zone does not make a huge difference in this situation – the Cowboys’ expected win probability is roughly the same in each case (68-69%). Essentially, Dallas forfeited a larger chance of a TD to avoid the increased cost of a possible turnover via interception. Even though the chance of an interception is so low when throwing it into the end zone, the huge cost in terms of win probability is enough to make throwing it into the end zone only slightly better than throwing a pass behind the line of scrimmage.
Even if you assume the Cowboys could call a pass play into the end zone that would have ZERO chance of being intercepted but still have a 40% chance of success (maybe like a back-shoulder fade?), then the expected win probability for such a pass would be higher than that of a pass behind the line, but again not by that much.
The actual play resulted in a 3-yard loss and dropped the Cowboys win probability to about 61%. You could blame the poor execution on Tony Romo for not changing the play, Tashard Choice for not picking up more yardage, or the Cowboys blockers for not giving Choice any space. But according to this analysis, the play call itself had a much smaller impact on the Cowboys’ chances of winning the game.
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A mathematical look at this play call using ESPN Stats & Information’s win probability estimates and NFL success rates on various play types in goal-to-go situations shows that this shovel pass was not that bad of a call. At most, the play call (not counting the actual execution of it) cost the Cowboys about 1-2% in terms of expected win probability, well within the margin of error based on the individual tendencies of his own offense or the opposing that a coach might pick up on leading up to or during the game.
Since the Cowboys had 5 yards to go, we can assume they would pass (runs are rare in this situation), but we can see how the numbers move based on their decision to throw a pass behind the line of scrimmage (as the shovel pass was) as opposed to throwing one into the end zone (like a back-shoulder fade or slant to Dez Bryant, as some have suggested).
We will consider three possible outcomes for each type of pass play: 1) touchdown, 2) no touchdown, but maintain possession, and 3) an interception (assuming a touchback). To assign payoffs to each of the possible outcomes, we will use ESPN Stats & Information’s win probability estimates for each of these situations:
Cowboys win probability if TD: 80%
Cowboys win probability if no TD but maintain possession: 62%
Cowboys win probability if Int (assuming touchback): 45%
Now, we can look back at NFL success rates on 3rd-and-goal pass plays from the 4-6 yardline by distance thrown using video-tracked data since 2008.
Throw Pass Behind Line of Scrimmage
Chance of Outcomes Based on NFL Averages Since 2008
Chance of TD: 31%
Chance of no TD, keep possession: 69%
Chance of Int: 0%
Expected Win Probability for Pass Behind Line of Scrimmage: (0.31)*(0.80) + (0.69)*(0.62) + (0.00)*(0.45) = 68%
Throw Pass into End Zone
Chance of Outcomes Based on NFL Averages Since 2008
Chance of TD: 40%
Chance of no TD, keep possession: 58%
Chance of Int: 2%
Expected Win Probability for Pass Into End Zone: (0.40)*(0.80) + (0.58)*(0.62) + (0.02)*(0.45) = 69%
As you can see, choosing to pass the ball behind the line as opposed to into the end zone does not make a huge difference in this situation – the Cowboys’ expected win probability is roughly the same in each case (68-69%). Essentially, Dallas forfeited a larger chance of a TD to avoid the increased cost of a possible turnover via interception. Even though the chance of an interception is so low when throwing it into the end zone, the huge cost in terms of win probability is enough to make throwing it into the end zone only slightly better than throwing a pass behind the line of scrimmage.
Even if you assume the Cowboys could call a pass play into the end zone that would have ZERO chance of being intercepted but still have a 40% chance of success (maybe like a back-shoulder fade?), then the expected win probability for such a pass would be higher than that of a pass behind the line, but again not by that much.
The actual play resulted in a 3-yard loss and dropped the Cowboys win probability to about 61%. You could blame the poor execution on Tony Romo for not changing the play, Tashard Choice for not picking up more yardage, or the Cowboys blockers for not giving Choice any space. But according to this analysis, the play call itself had a much smaller impact on the Cowboys’ chances of winning the game.
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ABOUT THIS BLOG
Calvin Watkins
Calvin Watkins joined ESPNDallas.com in September 2009. He's covered the Cowboys since 2006 and also has covered colleges, boxing and high school sports.
Todd Archer
Todd Archer joined ESPNDallas.com in November 2010. He's covered the NFL since 1997 and the Cowboys since 2003. He covered the Bengals and Dolphins before arriving in Dallas. A Massachusetts native, Archer lives in the Dallas area with his wife and two children.
Tim MacMahon
Tim MacMahon joined ESPNDallas.com in September 2009. Tim covers the Cowboys and Mavericks. He has covered the local sports scene from high schools to colleges to pros during his six-year tenure at The Dallas Morning News. MacMahon is a graduate of UNT.
Jean-Jacques Taylor
Jean-Jacques Taylor joined ESPNDallas.com in August 2011. A native of Dallas, Taylor spent the past 20 years writing for The Dallas Morning News, where he covered high schools sports, the Texas Rangers and spent 11 seasons covering the Dallas Cowboys before becoming a general columnist in 2006.
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