Second opinion: who's playoff ready 

October, 23, 2010
10/23/10
12:00
AM CT
The playoffs are fast approaching and it's time to separate the pretenders from the real deal. The MLS regular season is like the rice in a good burrito, it gives you filler but the real meal is in the playoff meat.

This year like no other seemed to have the final eight decided early. While KC mathematically had a shot late, they haven't really been alive for a month and every thing is now basically etched in stone.

What happened to the good old MLS where teams didn't know if they were in or out until the last week of the season? Tight races often had a great effect on the playoffs as many teams who got hot at the end did well, similarly to last year as the champion gathered momentum at the right time.

This promises to be a very different campaign, even if only for that reason, or does it?

The Glass Slipper

How many times in MLS does it seem like a team who is on the brink of being eliminated ends up being one of the two to make the finals? Whether it's momentum, or a statement for parity as the league expands, the space between the top team and the last to qualify gets smaller. The most likely choices for this years Cinderella run are...

San Jose

While San Jose has had some strong performances, have they really been a threat to win this thing at all this season? They have a plethora of players who can be above average on any given night, but very few difference makers. They finished the season strong however and Frank Yallop has won the prize on a couple of occasions. Is there a resurrection of the quakes of old?

I would be stunned but they have been underestimated by observers all season. A soft schedule to finish the season could build some momentum but I don't see the playoffs shaking with the Quakes.

and Colorado

Colorado has streaked of late and Omar Cummings is a handful but don't let that fool you. This is the same hard working and anything but fun to watch Colorado that has gone back to the late 90s. Big lumbering forwards, an English style of hard work and pressure, with a get it in the mixer style, and nobody to break you down when times get tough. That style can be successful in the playoffs and they still have Pablo Mastroeni playing well in the middle, which kind of makes my point.

The Rapids have been a very tough point for opposition to get late in the season, what with the improved defense and Conor Casey and Cummings finding a way to get on the end of quality service. A little momentum and they could be this year's Salt Lake but I still don't think they will win it.

In the mix

Columbus

A lot of people have Columbus as their top team, but not me. No question they are often tough to beat with a stalwart defense led by Chad Marshall and the anchor in the midfield Jeff Carroll (who is my pick for most underrated player in MLS). Guillermo Barros Schelotto has brilliant moments in every game but can Steven Lenhart and Eddie Gaven really be dangerous enough to beat this seasons big boys? Emmanuel Ekpo can be a handful but is also inconsistent.

One thing you have to give to Columbus is they rarely beat themselves and those type of teams always go far in the playoffs. So I wouldn't be stunned by a good run, but the problem I see is a lack of consistent scoring up top. The Crew will be in the hunt but there will be that one series where they need a person who can break down a close game and Schelotto will not be enough.

Dallas

FCD may be the second or third best team in the league, the problem is that the other two are in their division. While Dallas is going to be a tough team to beat in these playoffs, providing Kevin Hartman comes back healthy, they might have been better served finishing fifth. You have to look at a team that could set a record for least loses and feel like they will be there at the end, but there is one thing that keeps me from being a true believer and that is the number of ties in Dallas. Not since Brian Quinn coached San Jose has a team tied so many games in so many different ways. While many ties have shown character, tying games at home in an aggregate series is a recipe for failure.

The X-factor for me might end up being Hartman's injury. Statistically Dallas had one of the best goals against averages in the league which usually means we will see you in the finals. The defense was much improved and while they are clearly better, more often than not it was Hartman standing on his head that got them over the hump in my opinion. Hartman is one of the keys to that team getting out of the first round.

While FCD has improved the character and fight of the team they are still short up top and can get isolated or stretched defensively for long periods of time. They do have great attacking options in Ferreira, who has to be included in player of the year talk; when teams are more focused in the playoffs on eliminating him, Brek Shea or someone else will need to provide offense. We have seen improved form from Milton Rodriguez and Jeff Cunningham to finish the season and that will need to continue for Dallas to get out of round one. Not often can your goals all come from midfield and you go far. I just don't believe FCD will get past Salt Lake

Seattle

The Sounders are my dark horse and my pick to upset LA Galaxy in the first round. Fresh off an open cup title Seattle has the pieces to make a late season run. Worries are the piecemeal back line where maybe only James Riley was a regular starter when the season started.

While the back line is hit and miss, the striker tandem of Fredy Montero and Blaise Nkufo seems to be peaking at just the right time and this year has me thinking they make a strong run. Osvaldo Alonso has returned to his pre-injury form and Steve Zakuani has matured; they have Seattle flying high.

New York

New York, while not the real deal, I would expect to make the final just on the basic premise that they are the best team in the conference; but watch out for San Jose, or more likely Colorado, benefiting from the momentum of moving over to the east.

The positives are the talent, but unfortunately that talent has only scratched the surface so far in MLS. Dane Richards has been on fire since mid season and although I think Bouna Coundol is hit or miss, he has been very good this year. Thierry Henry has been a presence, but not as effective as a DP needs to be, and I think that is where the problems begin. The fact is they just don't seem to be hitting on all cylinders and the appearance is that Juan Pablo Angel seems to be disgruntled.

I am predicting that first round upset for them because of an extremely slow back line that can discombobulate at any time, I see the Red Bulls going home early.

Los Angeles

The Galaxy have the difference makers and can play conservative on occasion when they need points. This might be the most underrated league leader in history. With the acquisitions in New York (along with Dallas, Seattle, and Salt Lake playing lights out) the status quo of Landon Donavan and company is no longer the focus of the league. Those players are still there and can easily cruise through the playoffs.

There is just something about this year's team for me that has been lacking the commitment to consistency. Talent alone wins them a lot of points but defensively but I feel they have been too erratic and haven't found their true identity. Donavan is still a handful but David Beckham's presence seems to have disjointed this team, not with poor play, but with cohesion. Juninho was playing well and moving him out of the middle has been a real chink in the armor. I am looking for an upset in the first round by Seattle

The Real deal

Real Salt Lake

Salt lake will have a tough first round match with FC Dallas and could get upset, but I think experience will be the difference and RSL will barely prevail. They will go on to win MLS cup against this year's surprise, Colorado.

Simply put, this team didn't stand pat. They were good enough before to win, then made moves early and often to be better than last year's club. Add to that a competitive edge they seem to have, plus they are more experienced than last year, and I think that has them lifting the cup when the dust settles.

In any case this might be the closest gap between teams in the playoffs since year one. The teams at the bottom are finishing strong and the teams at the top have been coasting in cruise for some time. Anything can happen.

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