48 points: why the FC Dallas 2012 season is all but over
Granted the sample size is quite small, so we can't write that number in stone as yet. New York made the playoffs at 46 last year, but it would have taken 50 to pass Colorado for 5th in the West. Over time we'll be able to refine the number. 48 still gives us a solid number to consider.
Here's the problem for FCD, it has played 15 games so far this season and earned only 13 points, on three wins, eight losses, and four ties. That's a terrible .866 points per game. The club hasn't won a game since April 14th.
So in order to "safely" make the playoffs FCD needs 35 points from the remaining 19 games to get the 48 points. That's a whopping 1.84 points per game.
Or in other words ... 12 wins in 19 games or 12-7-0 for 36.
or 11-6-2 ... for exactly 35 ...
or 10-4-5 for 35 points ...
or 9-2-9 for 35 points ...
or 8-0-11 for 35 points ...
and that's it.
If FCD doesn't lose another game, it would still need eight wins in 19 games ...
So at a bare minimum FCD probably needs to win half the remaining games, and lose very, very few of them.
Yes, FCD has been decimated by injuries. But those players aren't going to be healthy today, and even if they are it would still take an amazing feat of recovery and resilience to make that kind of turn around and run. Consider that at the start of the season FCD was 3-2-1 for 10 points over the first 6 ... 1.6 PPG. So getting back to that form alone wouldn't get it done.
Can it happen? Sure, I suppose. This is sports, anything can happen. But it would take one of the great winning streaks in MLS history. So sure, why not this team? FCD is, after all, only six points back of 4th place Colorado -- that's just two wins. Unfortunately, everyone else in the conference between FCD and the playoffs has two or even three games in hand. And that's killer.
So I wouldn't hold my breath.
AUDIO HIGHLIGHTS
Play Podcast Soccer Today broadcasts an international edition with Marc Stein in London to cover the FA Cup final for ESPNFC, while Steve Davis joins from the ESPN Dallas studios in Las Colinas.
Play Podcast Robbie Rogers joins Soccer Today to discuss his MLS comeback plans, what it's been like for him at the Galaxy's training ground after he said in February that he is gay and needed to step away and Jason Collins' announcement in the NBA.
Play Podcast It's a travelogue edition of Soccer Today with Marc Stein in Houston covering the NBA playoffs and Steve Davis just back from a trip to the nation's capital to visit Jurgen Klinsmann. The guys kick off the morning by sharing stories from the road.
Play Podcast At the end of a sobering week in sports, Marc Stein and Steve Davis open Soccer Today from Copa ESPN by discussing the New England Revolution and the heavy emotions involved in playing a game just days after the Boston Marathon bombings.
Play Podcast Marc Stein and Steve Davis discuss Brek Shea's new team Stoke City taking on his former team FC Dallas in a friendly this summer.
Play Podcast Marc Stein and Steve Davis lament the performance of MLS clubs in the CONCACAF Champions League after the Seattle Sounders and Los Angeles Galaxy lost at home in the semifinals.
Play Podcast Marc Stein and Steve Davis discuss the United States national team after its 0-0 tie in Mexico shifted all the World Cup qualifying panic from the United States onto its hosts at Estadio Azteca.
Play Podcast Marc Stein and Steve Davis discuss the United States' 1-0 win over Costa Rica in the Denver snow and the inevitable Costa Rican protest afterward.
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