Wednesday, May 30, 2012
48 points: why the FC Dallas 2012 season is all but over
By Buzz Carrick
The last couple of MLS season, where we now have more and more teams in the league ... 16 ... 18 ... 19 ... It has consequently taken more and more points to make the post season. The magic number to "safely" make the playoffs used to be 42 points in a 30 game season. Now in the 34 games season, with more teams, it looks like the number may be 48.
Granted the sample size is quite small, so we can't write that number in stone as yet. New York made the playoffs at 46 last year, but it would have taken 50 to pass Colorado for 5th in the West. Over time we'll be able to refine the number. 48 still gives us a solid number to consider.
Here's the problem for FCD, it has played 15 games so far this season and earned only 13 points, on three wins, eight losses, and four ties. That's a terrible .866 points per game. The club hasn't won a game since April 14th.
So in order to "safely" make the playoffs FCD needs 35 points from the remaining 19 games to get the 48 points. That's a whopping 1.84 points per game.
Or in other words ... 12 wins in 19 games or 12-7-0 for 36.
or 11-6-2 ... for exactly 35 ...
or 10-4-5 for 35 points ...
or 9-2-9 for 35 points ...
or 8-0-11 for 35 points ...
and that's it.
If FCD doesn't lose another game, it would still need eight wins in 19 games ...
So at a bare minimum FCD probably needs to win half the remaining games, and lose very, very few of them.
Yes, FCD has been decimated by injuries. But those players aren't going to be healthy today, and even if they are it would still take an amazing feat of recovery and resilience to make that kind of turn around and run. Consider that at the start of the season FCD was 3-2-1 for 10 points over the first 6 ... 1.6 PPG. So getting back to that form alone wouldn't get it done.
Can it happen? Sure, I suppose. This is sports, anything can happen. But it would take one of the great winning streaks in MLS history. So sure, why not this team? FCD is, after all, only six points back of 4th place Colorado -- that's just two wins. Unfortunately, everyone else in the conference between FCD and the playoffs has two or even three games in hand. And that's killer.
So I wouldn't hold my breath.