With Lindy Ruff taking over in Dallas, the Stars look to end a five-year playoff draught.
Fantasy Forecaster: Week 1
AP Photo/Charles Rex ArbogastPatrick Sharp is a proven scorer, and Michael Handzus starts this season on his line.It's back! The Fantasy Forecaster is your one-stop shop for the week ahead in the fantasy hockey world.
Sometimes it's not about what you know as much as it is about who you know. It's a statement that can be used to emphasize the importance of linemates, depth chart and position battles as we kick off the 2013-14 NHL season. There were a few surprises who weren't on many fantasy radars a month ago who deserve a quick look before we get into the meat of the Fantasy Forecaster.
Erik Cole, RW, Dallas Stars: The thought was that it would be veteran Ray Whitney and his passing prowess who would be the natural linemate for Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn on the Stars' top unit. Not so, as the Stars opted for the tougher forechecking option in Cole. With experience as a top-line player, and an ability to mix points, plus/minus and penalty minutes, Cole could be a nice pickup ahead of the season. Whitney loses a lot of his appeal if this depth chart stands.
Ed Mulholland/USA TODAY SportsNathan MacKinnon, Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Drouin went 1-2-3 in the 2013 NHL draft.All dedicated fantasy hockey owners feel like they are familiar with all the potential impact rookies ahead of each campaign. And each campaign, we are all proven wrong.
In 2013, it was Cory Conacher and Brendan Gallagher that made all the preseason Calder Trophy predictions seem as though they were missing something. In 2011-12, it was Matt Read and Carl Hagelin that surprised (although they didn't compete for the Calder) and in 2010-11, it was Jeff Skinner making everyone look silly.
We can do all the preseason research we want, but there probably will be some surprise rookies that make the NHL and then find an opportunity to exploit. That said, the best way to combat the possibility of obscure players making a fantasy impact is to be exhaustive while familiarizing ourselves with rookies.
To continue reading this article you must be an Insider
Familiar faces, new Western places
AP Photo/Mike FuentesTyler Seguin was traded to Dallas this offseason, where he'll line up with Jamie Benn.The title to this article is pretty self-explanatory. Like every other professional sport, the NHL sees its share of player movement in the offseason, and there are usually some pretty big names included. This past offseason was no exception.
Here's a look at a few noteworthy fantasy performers who landed with Western Conference teams this offseason and how they fit in with their respective new squads. On Monday, we'll hit the Eastern Conference. Rookies are not included here, but they'll get their due in another forthcoming column.
Dustin Penner, LW, Anaheim Ducks
With those TMZ-scented, off-ice distractions behind him, Penner is free and clear to resettle with the franchise that first signed him as a pro back in 2004. If able to settle in well with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry on the Ducks' top forward line, Penner has the potential to bang in 20-plus goals and 25-plus assists, like in the good ol' days (see: Edmonton Oilers, 2007-08 through 2010-11). If not, another disappointing campaign may be in the cards for the 30-year-old winger. Keep an eye on Penner, and his role within Anaheim's offensive scheme, through the first few weeks of the season.
One of the key concepts in hockey analytics is that the goaltender position, while the most influential on a game-by-game basis, is also the least stable in terms of individual player performance. In fact, few goalies can be counted on to provide elite performance season after season.
Take the Blues' Brian Elliott as an example. Just two seasons ago, he was the co-recipient (with teammate Jaroslav Halak) of the William M. Jennings Trophy as the team with the lowest goals-against average (GAA). Per Hockey Prospectus' proprietary GVT stat, which measures total value provided by a given player, Elliott was one of the five most valuable players in the NHL. This was a surprise to many, as not only was his entire career to that point steeped in mediocrity, but in the previous season he ranked as the least valuable player in the league. In fact, he allowed 20 more goals than would have been expected from an AHL call-up.
Last season, Elliott returned to mediocrity, failing to defend his spot among the league's elite by turning in a season only marginally better than that aforementioned call-up. Meanwhile, the Vezina Trophy, awarded to the best single goaltender, was won by Sergei Bobrovsky, who had gone from below-average backup in Philadelphia to starter in Columbus, and nearly carried the Blue Jackets to the playoffs entirely on his broad shoulder pads. Defensemen or forwards rarely go from being a negative player in one season to one of the league leaders in the next; for goalies, it seems to happen (in both directions) each season.
When we look for consistency in net, there is only one true candidate who is both still active and in his prime. In fact, our hero has been -- by no small margin -- the most valuable netminder since 2005-06, and is the only man we feel comfortable with penciling in for another elite season. That man, of course, is Henrik Lundqvist, the one they call "The King."
Lundqvist comes in No. 1 in our VUKOTA-based projection of the Top 10 goaltenders for the 2013-14 NHL season.
1. Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers
2013-14 projection: 65 games | .918 save percentage | 19.8 GVT
Among regular netminders, the King's .937 even-strength save percentage ranked fifth in the league in 2013. We look to his even-strength numbers more so than his total in all situations, as there is often too much clutter in a goaltender's numbers when his team is skating shorthanded. In Lundqvist's case, it would not have mattered. At .927 overall, he slotted into fifth place again. To set himself up for a weighty GVT, it is pretty obvious that the 31-year-old Swede has to -- and knows full well how to -- stop the puck.
To ensure that he is more valuable than the other netminders, the former seventh-round pick also has to play a lot. Fortunately, Lundqvist has proved time and again that he fits the bill as a classic workhorse goalie. Appearing in all but five games in 2013's lockout-shortened season, he also has four seasons of more than 70 games played. So it is no surprise that VUKOTA expects the Rangers' star to lead the league in games played among goalies. With all of the signs pointing in the right direction, we think the King is primed for a run at a second Vezina Trophy.
To continue reading this article you must be an Insider
After years with the Bruins, Tyler Seguin is now one of the top guys on a rebuilding Stars team.
Tiering NHL teams by prospects
With the posting of the NHL Future Power Rankings, we're diving a little deeper into my take on one of those four categories: prospects.
I've broken the 30 NHL teams up into tiers based upon the strength (or lack thereof) of their prospect groups, based upon my research, as well as input from scouts and executives. For our purposes, a player is considered a prospect if he played 25 or fewer NHL games last season, or has played 50 games or fewer total. He is an under-23 NHL player if he is 22 or under as of Sept. 15. Both groups are considered for this evaluation. Within each tier, teams are presented alphabetically.
References commonly are made to my Top 100 NHL Prospects list, so keep that tab open to follow along for deeper dives into particular players that I mention.
The top tier
The top three organizations in under-23 talent all seem poised for better results than they've had in recent seasons.
To continue reading this article you must be an Insider
In house, the folks at Hockey Prospectus take a look at the Anaheim Ducks in their Summer Skate series. And Craig Custance examines the challenges facing Philadelphia Flyers coach Peter Laviolette.
Even though head coach Mike Yeo is pretty smitten with Nino Niederreiter, the 21-year-old isn't a shoo-in to make the Minnesota Wild roster out of camp. A start in the AHL for Niederreiter may still be in the cards.
To continue reading this article you must be an Insider
One of the most impressive things about the Blackhawks winning the 2013 Stanley Cup was that they became the first franchise to win it twice in the salary-cap era. And they did so in a short period of time.
Today's NHL is driven by a parity-inducing cap, which forces teams to part ways with assets they'd usually prefer to keep. In those conditions, it's hard to stand out season after season when tough decisions have to be made simply because of finances. Dynasties are dead ... or at least that's what we thought before last season.
At least 10 teams could make a strong case at winning the Stanley Cup this season, with the usual factors playing a big part -- health, goaltending, maybe a little luck.
But what goes into projecting success three seasons from now? It's a different formula predicting how strong teams will look in 2016-17. Nevertheless, positioning their teams for sustained success is precisely what NHL general managers seek to do each season. And that begs the question: Which teams are best positioned for the seasons ahead? To find the answer, we now debut the NHL Future Power Rankings.
To construct the rankings, we consulted with former NHL assistant general manager Frank Provenzano, who helped develop our categories -- as well as how they were weighted -- based upon his experience working in the front office for multiple NHL teams.
Then we asked a panel of six analysts to rate every NHL team in four key categories deemed most important to future success: roster, prospects, cap/contracts, owner/GM/coach.
Using a weighted formula -- illustrated in the sidebar to the right -- the final rankings were calculated. What follows is a ranking of the teams best positioned for success from now heading into the 2016-17 season, and analysis on why they find themselves in that position.
The Panel: ESPN Insider Craig Custance; former NHL assistant GM Frank Provenzano; advanced metrics guru Neil Greenberg; prospect analyst Corey Pronman; and Ryan Schwepfinger and Rob Vollman of Hockey Prospectus.
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
To continue reading this article you must be an Insider
Ruff's new start stirs old memories
Max Faulkner/Getty ImagesLindy Ruff will try to lead the retooled Stars back to the playoffs.There's laughter at the other end of the phone line about three words into the question.
I wondered, after all, just how much thought Lindy Ruff had put into the Brett Hull skate in the crease goal from the 1999 Stanley Cup finals before being unveiled at his June news conference in Dallas as the new head coach of the Stars.
It was the first question he was asked at the press conference.
"I said to Jim [Nill] when I first agreed to meet with him, 'I'll meet with him, but we can't meet in the crease,'" Ruff said at his June 21 news conference, igniting laughter from the crowd.
Three months later, Ruff admits he worked on that line. He had to be ready for it, right?
"Yeah, I knew it was coming," Ruff told ESPN.com.
It's all laughs now but for years, Hull's controversial Cup-winning goal for the Stars in Buffalo cut deep in Western New York, particularly for a town that's never won a championship with either the Sabres or the NFL's Bills.
And Ruff certainly was hot under the collar at the time. Imagine if someone had told Ruff back in the summer of '99 that he'd coach Dallas one day?
But like anything, time passes, and in sports, that makes anything possible. Players, coaches and GMs change teams all the time.
"The thing that kind of struck me though as I was thinking about it, is that it was 14 years ago," Ruff said of the controversial ending to the '99 Cup finals. "It was basically at the start of my coaching career. It was an emotional time for sure. It was emotional for the Stars at the time, and emotional for the Sabres. But I really felt that answering the way I did ... it was time to move on."
The Los Angeles Kings surprised everyone when they won the Stanley Cup following the 2011-12 season. They were a No. 8 seed, yet they eliminated the top three seeds in the Western Conference during their playoff run. Even more impressive, they never faced an elimination game, going 12-2 in the first three rounds before beating the New Jersey Devils in six games in the Finals.
However, the Kings weren't able to defend their crown in the shortened 2013 season. They had the league's best home record (19-4-1) in the regular season, but were just 8-12-4 away from the Staples Center. Their stalwart in net, Jonathan Quick, went from stopping 1,730 of the 1,863 shots he faced in 2011-12 (a .929 save percentage) to a below-average .902 in 2013. And while Quick redeemed himself in the postseason, saving 484 of the 518 shots he faced, the Kings couldn't stop Chicago in the Western Conference finals. This year will be different: The Kings will be the 2013-14 Stanley Cup champions.
For Los Angeles, it all starts with puck possession. Ignoring special-teams play and lead-protecting situations, the Kings had possession of the puck 57.3 percent of the time last season, the highest percentage in the league. Higher than the Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks, who were second-best (56.1 percent). When the Kings won the Cup, they were over 56 percent after they traded for Jeff Carter -- that rate was tops in the league, as well. And with much of the roster from the championship team returning -- only Simon Gagne, Rob Scuderi, Dustin Penner and Jonathan Bernier are elsewhere -- you can pencil them in as one of the best teams in the league at protecting the puck.
To continue reading this article you must be an Insider
Now that Nazem Kadri is locked in with a two-year, $5.8 million deal, the bulk of attention turns to unsigned restricted free-agent Cody Franson. As of Wednesday morning, TSN's Darren Dreger suggests the Toronto Maple Leafs and defenseman remain far apart, as far as a new contract is concerned.
The Florida Panthers have invited veteran forward Brad Boyes to camp on a professional tryout. There's word the unrestricted free agent is opting for a shot with the Panthers over a similar opportunity with the New York Islanders.
To continue reading this article you must be an Insider
Summer Skate: Dallas Stars
Using the VUKOTA projection system of Hockey Prospectus, Insider is taking the temperature of key players on every NHL team, continuing with the Dallas Stars. For a detailed explanation of Prospectus' proprietary GVT value metric, read more here.
Note: Because of the lockout, GVT scores for the 2013 season are prorated from 48 to 82 games.
Summer Skate: Dallas Stars
Forget whatever you know about the Dallas Stars, because this is a whole new team. More than half of last season's opening night roster is gone, including Loui Eriksson, Jaromir Jagr, Michael Ryder, Derek Roy, Brenden Morrow, Eric Nystrom, and many more. Even GM Joe Nieuwendyk, coach Glen Gulutzan and his entire coaching staff are gone, replaced with Jim Nill and former Sabres bench boss Lindy Ruff.
But with all those losses, the team did make some additions -- including Tyler Seguin and Rich Peverley, who came over from the Bruins via trade this offseason. Expectations for this new team are hard to set, and may very well boil down to how quickly these new combinations can jell.
Trending up: F Rich Peverley
Last season: 2.6 GVT | VUKOTA projection: 3.7
To continue reading this article you must be an Insider
UPCOMING GAMES
| W-L | PF | PA | HM | AW | STK | L10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0-0 | .0 | .0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | W0 | |
| DAL | 0-0 | .0 | .0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | W0 |
| W-L | PF | PA | HM | AW | STK | L10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 0-1 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | L1 | |
| DAL | 0-0 | .0 | .0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | W0 |
| W-L | PF | PA | HM | AW | STK | L10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0-0 | .0 | .0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | W0 | |
| WPG | 1-0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | W1 |
- There are no games scheduled for today.
- There are no games scheduled for today.
- There are no games scheduled for today.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
2:30 PM CT Kansas St 21 Oklahoma St 
6:00 PM CT TCU 11 Oklahoma 
2:30 PM CT North Texas Tulane 
11:00 AM CT Rutgers SMU 
7:00 PM CT West Virginia 17 Baylor 
11:00 AM CT 20 Texas Tech Kansas