Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Triple Crown odds for Josh Hamilton?
By Tim MacMahon
The Baseball Think Factory's Dan Szymborski got all computer-geeky about the likelihood of Josh Hamilton becoming the majors' first Triple Crown winner since 1967.
The ESPN Insider piecein a nutshell:
After all the numbers are crunched, Hamilton remains essentially a coin-flip to lead the league in each of the Triple Crown categories (see table), even when taken into account that he's played 130 games in a season only twice. Injury risk definitely hurts his odds at leading the league in the counting categories, but as long as he gets to 502 plate appearances (or at least close), there's the potential to actually help his batting average odds -- he's not really a .400 hitter, so the fewer PAs remaining, the less time there is to fall back to the rest of the league. In the 100,000 seasons played, Hamilton won the Triple Crown 16.1 percent of the time, terrific odds for such a difficult feat.