Thursday, May 31, 2012
Fantasy baseball thoughts on Derek Holland
By Richard Durrett
ANAHEIM, Calif. -- One of ESPN.com's baseball fantasy gurus, Eric Karabell, took a long look at last night's 21-8 Mariners win from a fantasy perspective. Here's one part he wrote on Derek Holland:
On the Rangers side of things, fantasy owners have to be concerned about Holland, who has become an all-or-nothing pitcher. Last season, Holland led the AL with four shutouts, but since the start of 2011, he also has failed to make it through the second inning on three occasions, tied for the most in baseball among qualified starting pitchers. Eight runs in 1 2/3 innings is painful to fantasy owners. Holland's 4.05 ERA (entering Wednesday's start) jumped to 5.11. But the number I'm still looking at is 3.06. That was Holland's second-half ERA in 2011, when he was 9-1 with a 1.21 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 rate. We need more consistency, of course, and fewer two-inning poundings, but this is someone to invest in. I saw speculation after Wednesday that perhaps Roy Oswalt replaces Holland in the rotation, that Neftali Feliz might start after all. But I feel Holland is safe; in his previous outing, he fanned nine Toronto Blue Jays over 7 1/3 innings, allowing just two runs. Pitchers have bad outings from time to time, but that's when you invest. For example, look at Pittsburgh's A.J. Burnett. The 12-run, 2 2/3-inning disaster on May 2 was a downer, but in his other seven starts, he's 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA.
Read the entire blog entry here (insider). It's got some interesting fantasy numbers.