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Detroit Lions will beat Dallas Cowboys

This is a tough game to pick because, of all the teams in the playoffs, the Detroit Lions match up the best against the Dallas Cowboys and Matthew Stafford -- who struggles on the road against good teams -- is 2-0 against the Cowboys in his career.

But who wins this game will come down to DeMarco Murray against the Detroit defense. With Ndamukong Suh back and available for Sunday, that gives the Lions’ run defense its best asset. Consider this fact, too. Four previous times, the top run defense in the league has faced the league’s top rusher in the postseason. The team with the top run defense is 3-1 in those games.

Plus, Murray has been less effective in the second half of the season, averaging 4.23 yards per rush over the final eight weeks. That might sound like a lot still, but it's down from his overall 4.7 yards per carry this season. With a potentially angry Suh and a defense smarting from having Eddie Lacy run over it in Week 17, the Lions could rebound well enough to win their first playoff game since 1991 -- also against Dallas.

The pick: Detroit 24, Dallas 20