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NFC North in the evening

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:47:34 EDT

Some final tidbits as the countdown continues to Packers-Lions II:

Detroit Lions: What a mess the Lions have at safety. They placed starter Ko Simpson (knee) on injured reserve and declared Kalvin Pearson (hamstring) out of the game. Fellow starter Louis Delmas (ankle) is questionable but likely to play. Still, that leaves Marvin White as the only other safety available on the active roster. White was claimed off waivers from Dallas last month. … Linebacker Ernie Sims (hamstring) has also been declared out for the game, while quarterback Matthew Stafford (shoulder) and defensive end Dwayne White (toe) are doubtful and unlikely to play. … Receiver Calvin Johnson (knee, hand) is questionable but will be limited at best if he plays.

Green Bay Packers: An MRI showed no damage on center Scott Wells’ knee, so it appears he will start Thursday. Wells told Wisconsin reporters that “nothing’s torn” and that the swelling has receded. He’s officially listed as probable. Tailback Ahman Green (groin) and tackle Allen Barbre (ankle) are the only two players the Packers likely won’t have available to them.

Mangini relents

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:00:16 EDT

So it looks like Cleveland coach Eric Mangini has come to his senses. Mangini told reporters in Cleveland that he regretted any suggestion that Detroit players faked injuries last Sunday in order to slow down his vaunted and high-powered no-huddle offense.

Here are stories from the Associated Press and the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

Will this be enough to spare Mangini from winning our Homer of the Week award, as many of you are insisting?

Stay tuned.

FavreWatch: History in the making

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:02:58 EDT

EDEN PRARIE, Minn. -- The numbers make a compelling case. His team’s record couldn’t be much better. Heck, even ESPN.com’s Mike Sando ranks him atop his weekly list of MVP candidates. So on Wednesday, I asked Brett Favre the question:

Is this the best you’ve ever played?

Favre grimaced as if it was the last thing he wanted to talk about. (Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.) But three days after what might have been the sharpest game of a stellar season, Favre didn’t put up much resistance.

“It’s been pretty good, no doubt,” he said. “Statistically, and that’s what most people are going to point to, I think the most important statistic is 9-1. We would not be 9-1 if it were not for a lot of things. And all of the things I thought would make this team very good -- and it has been good -- have held up.

“And I had hoped by coming in that I could play at a high level and take it to the next level. So I’m very pleased with, up to this point, how I’ve fit into this team. But also there is a lot left to do, but when you play 19 years, stuff starts running together a bit. We had some pretty good runs back in the '90s and in the early 2000s we had some pretty good teams as well. But it has been a really good stretch.”

As you can see in the chart below, Favre is on pace for career highs in completion percentage, touchdown-interception ratio, passer rating and yards per attempt. There is no perfect way to measure a quarterback’s overall performance, but those categories -- combined with the Vikings’ win total -- make a pretty compelling case.

We touched on it a couple of weeks ago, but the most surprising development in Favre’s performance continues to be his lack of interceptions. The NFL’s all-time interception leader has the fewest interceptions (three) of any NFL quarterback with at least 200 attempts. His interception percentage of 1.0 is also a league best.

And even Favre noted Wednesday that he hasn’t played with particular caution this season. His 8.0-yard average per attempt, in fact, is tied for the seventh-best mark in the NFL and represents a substantial allotment of downfield passes.

“[The interceptions] are what everyone else wants to think is the most glaring statistic,” he said. “Believe me, for anyone that’s a good statistic. Not just me. Believe me, I know that. That would be one of the things I would point to, but I think by not throwing that many picks you’d think, ‘OK, he’s not taking any chances.’ And I think that to a certain extent that’s true, but then again, giving guys chances down the field. It’s not like some of these passes I’m throwing down the field, mid-range, guys are just wide open. I’m willing to give these guys some chances … and they’re making me right. … You’ve got to be willing to take the chance, and I feel like I’ve done that and given our guys opportunities, but also been cautious enough to not put us in too many bad situations.”

Indeed, Favre is simply throwing to the player he believes has the best matchup. Through Week 11, in fact, the Vikings were the only NFL team to have six players with 25 or more receptions.

Favre noted that he was having a strong season last year in New York before a partially torn biceps tendon derailed his season. But I don’t think it compares to what he’s done so far in Minnesota. Through 10 games at least, it’s been an all-timer.

Dirty Laundry: A little help

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:45:41 EDT

Carlo of East Rutherford, N.J., offers us a chance to dive into a rule distinction we haven’t addressed yet this season:

Aaron Rodgers made a first down with less than five minutes left with a quarterback sneak against the 49ers. If you look at the replay, it appears that he was pushed from behind and assisted in gaining the first down by one of his running backs. I always thought that this was a penalty. Yes or no?

Quite definitively, the answer is no.

The NFL rulebook prohibits several actions designed to accelerate the progress of a ball carrier. But pushing from behind is not one of them. Fullback Quinn Johnson's shove was perfectly legal, and when you watch the replay, it looks like was probably necessary to secure a first down.

Here is what the rules say no offensive player can do:

(a) lift a runner to his feet or pull him in any direction at any time; or
(b) use interlocking interference, by grasping a teammate or by using his hands or arms to encircle the body of a teammate; or
(c) trip an opponent; or
(d) push or throw his body against a teammate to aid him in an attempt to obstruct an opponent or to recover a loose ball.

The rulebook even provides an example of the Johnson-Rodgers play as an example of what is legal:

Second and goal on B2. Runner A1 gets to the line of scrimmage and is stopped but A2, who is behind him, pushes him from behind and shoves him over the goal line. Ruling: Touchdown.

There’s nothing revelatory here, but I find that many people have mistaken assumptions about NFL rules and how they’re applied. Hopefully we’ll be able to continue mowing them down here on Dirty Laundry.

Moving on to our Week 12 Challenge Tracker:

Anticipating Packers-Lions

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 11:30:41 EDT

It’s almost time for more football! Exactly 25 hours from the publication of this post, Green Bay and Detroit will square off on Thanksgiving Day for the 18th time. I’ll be positioned at NFC North headquarters to bring you thoughts before, during and after the game.

As you’re cleaning the bird this afternoon, take a few minutes to anticipate a few talking points for this game:

The Lions have sold out Ford Field for this game and their fan base is energized after quarterback Matthew Stafford’s heroics in Sunday’s victory over Cleveland. Fans also enjoyed a breakout game from receiver Calvin Johnson, who set a career high with 161 receiving yards. Unfortunately for everyone (except the Packers), Stafford (shoulder) won’t play and Johnson’s status is very iffy because of knee and hand injuries. Fans could miss out on a potential encore performance, and the Lions could wind up playing both of this season’s games against the Packers without their two best players. (Stafford and Johnson missed the Oct. 18 matchup at Lambeau Field, a 26-0 Packers victory.)
The Packers have tweaked their offensive approach in the past two weeks, but it’s hard to get past the mismatch their passing offense presents for the Lions' defense. After all, this is a group that gave up four touchdown passes to Cleveland quarterback Brady Quinn. The Lions' pass defense has gotten worse as the season has continued, and here are the numbers as of Week 12: Opponents have a 70.4 completion percentage, a 24-6 touchdown-interception ratio and a 110.3 passer rating. And here’s a new twist: Two of the Lions’ top three safeties, Ko Simpson and Kalvin Pearson, haven’t practiced this week because of injuries. If he wants to, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers could have an early Thanksgiving feast in this game.
The Packers have faced their share of injuries as well in this short practice week. As of Wednesday morning, they’re not sure if center Scott Wells (knee) will be able to play. That could force rookie Evan Dietrich-Smith into the starting lineup. And as has been mentioned once or twice, the Packers will have two new starters on defense after losing linebacker Aaron Kampman and cornerback Al Harris to knee injuries. Thursday will mark a transition game for the entire Packers defense.
A few people have mentioned the Lions’ 11-6-1 record against the Packers on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. Let’s not put too much stock in that mark. Recently, the series has been all Packers. Coach Mike McCarthy has never lost to the Lions in seven games, and overall the Packers have an eight-game winning streak against them. In the bigger picture, the Packers have won 16 of the past 18 in this series. In this decade, the Lions are 2-7 on Thanksgiving Day.

Have at it: Kampman or Harris?

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 10:15:37 EDT

Green Bay will take the field Thursday without two players who have been regulars for most of the past seven seasons. Linebacker Aaron Kampman has started 88 of the Packers’ last 90 games. Cornerback Al Harris, meanwhile, has opened 102 of their past 106 games.

Kampman

Harris

As you know by now, both Kampman and Harris are lost for the season after tearing the anterior cruciate ligaments in their left knees during Sunday’s 30-24 victory over San Francisco. The pair of injuries left the Packers scrambling to shuffle their lineup during a short practice week.

As we all scramble to prepare for the holiday weekend, I’m curious which injury you believe will ultimately have the biggest impact on the Packers. As you Have at It, keep in mind a few factors:

The way both players fit into the current scheme and were performing this season. I’ve offered a statistical snapshot below.
The quality of depth behind each player and the domino effect it creates. At Harris’ position, it means nickelback Tramon Williams moving up to starter and a combination of players -- including Jarrett Bush, Brandon Underwood and newcomer Josh Bell -- competing to play in the nickel and dime packages. At linebacker, the Packers seem set to replace Kampman with rookie Brad Jones.
The leadership each player provides -- in the locker room, within his position group and during games.
Here's a bonus: I'm not likely to look at your responses until early Friday morning. So if you're patient, you'll get a chance to answer this question with the benefit of watching Thursday's game against Detroit.

As always, I’ll publish a sample of your responses and my own take Friday morning. Have at It.

Black and Blue all over: Martz to Chicago?

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 07:25:45 EDT

It’s that time of year. With Chicago floundering and only a handful of people to blame, the first target appears to be offensive coordinator Ron Turner.

Brad Biggs of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that former St. Louis coach (and Detroit offensive coordinator) Mike Martz could be a candidate to replace Turner next season. The hunch for now is that the Bears will retain coach Lovie Smith, who is owed nearly $11 million over the next two seasons, but that doesn’t necessarily apply to Turner.

Martz hired Smith as his defensive coordinator in St. Louis in 2001 and the two are friends. But coming to Chicago could be awkward. Martz would be paired with quarterback Jay Cutler, whom he criticized earlier this season for poor body language, and would be on the same staff as defensive line coach Rod Marinelli, who fired him as the Lions offensive coordinator in 2007.

Finally, Martz’s pass-oriented system might make better use of Cutler’s skills but would represent a big departure from Smith’s core beliefs. Regardless, it’s a question that won’t be answered for several months.

Continuing around the NFC North on the day before Thanksgiving:

ESPN Chicago’s Jeff Dickerson offers his take on why the Bears’ season has gotten away.
Bears linebacker Lance Briggs is a huge comic-book reader, according to Christopher Borrelli of the Chicago Tribune.
Detroit rookie running back Aaron Brown has responded well to an in-season benching, writes Nicholas J. Cotsonika of the Detroit Free Press.
Bob Wojnowski of the Detroit News calls the Lions’ rookie class their best “in a decade or so.”
Green Bay defensive back Jarrett Bush, who likely will be elevated into the nickel package Thursday against Detroit, isn’t a fan favorite. Greg A. Bedard of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has more.
Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette inspects the Packers’ situation at center.
Minnesota owner Zygi Wilf has become a popular figure among fans, writes Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune.
Vikings quarterback Tarvaris Jackson still believes he is the team’s quarterback of the future, according to Sean Jensen of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

NFC North at night

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:42:43 EDT

Today is like a Wednesday, Thursday and Friday all rolled into one for Green Bay and Detroit as they prepare for a Thanksgiving Day matchup at Ford Field. Both teams have long injury lists and a short time to get healthy. Here’s the best we can gather from both teams:

Detroit Lions: Quarterback Matthew Stafford (shoulder) and receiver Calvin Johnson (hand/knee) were among six players who didn’t practice Tuesday. Stafford said he felt “a little sore” but it seems pretty clear that Daunte Culpepper will start in his place Thursday. Johnson’s status is less certain. Coach Jim Schwartz said: “He probably won't do much this whole week, but we'll see when it gets to Thursday, how full speed he's going to be or how much up to speed he'll be or whether he'll be able to go.” Safeties Kalvin Pearson (hamstring) and Ko Simpson (knee), linebacker Ernie Sims (hamstring) and defensive end Dewayne White (toe) also have uphill battles to play Thursday.

Green Bay Packers: Center Scott Wells (knee) didn’t practice and might not be ready to return in a short practice week. If that’s the case, rookie Evan Dietrich-Smith would become the third player to start a game at center for the Packers this season. Running back Ahman Green (groin) and tackle Allen Barbre (ankle) also didn’t practice. Brandon Jackson’s strong performance Sunday against San Francisco gives the Packers every reason to let Green heal fully before returning. Meanwhile, the Packers promoted cornerback Trevor Ford from the practice squad, according to Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.

Keys to the Packers' playoff run

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:30:14 EDT

It was only two weeks ago that some numbskull suggested Green Bay might have a tough time getting in playoff position during the second half of the season. Geez. Some people just don’t think about what they say or write.

Because as we stand on the brink of Week 12, the Packers have given themselves an excellent chance to clinch a wild-card spot if they continue a winning pace. (I would define “winning pace” as winning more than you lose. For the Packers, that would mean a 4-2 finish and a 10-6 final record.)

It won’t be as easy as it sounds, not when you consider they have only two home games remaining. It’s possible that a 9-7 record could clinch a playoff spot, but let’s be safe for the purposes of this discussion. In recognition of that strong assumption, let’s consider four keys to the Packers’ postseason run. (Four! Get it?)

1. Schematically cover for personnel losses on defense

The loss of cornerback Al Harris pushes the rest of the Packers’ defensive backs up the depth chart. Tramon Williams is the likely starter, with some combination of Jarrett Bush, Brandon Underwood and newcomer Josh Bell all in the mix for the nickel. Navigating this issue will be the Packers’ biggest challenge in making the playoffs.

All three players are relative unknowns in terms of coverage ability. It’s great if one of them steps up. If not, however, defensive coordinator Dom Capers will have to implement some lineup creativity to get his best 11 players on the field.

That could mean leaving an extra linebacker on the field in some nickel situations. It might require finding a bigger role for backup linebacker Desmond Bishop. It could mean flooding the line of scrimmage with blitzers, if that’s what Capers’ remaining players do best.

From the moment he arrived in Green Bay, Capers pledged to craft a scheme around the strengths of his players. It’s time for him once again to follow through.

2. Remaining disciplined with the “new” short-range offense

Over the past two weeks, the Packers have returned to the approach they used in 2007, emphasizing quicker passes, shorter routes and better balance with the run. In this case, the shift was a response to the limited pass protection they have offered quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

The development has been obvious the casual observer, but Tom Pelissero of the Green Bay Press-Gazette recently put a strong number behind it. In Sunday’s 30-24 victory over San Francisco, 20 of Rodgers’ 32 completions traveled within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage. And their biggest offensive play came off a simple 10-yard slant pass to receiver Greg Jennings, who turned it into a 64-yard touchdown.

“We know our strengths,” Jennings said. “We know our weaknesses, and we have to play to our strengths. And our strength is getting the ball out of Aaron’s hands and letting us make plays. … I think [the short game] is the best way to get the ball in any one of our hands. The last couple of weeks, that’s been a huge emphasis -- the three-step game, the quick game, just trying to get the ball in each one of our hands and just get us out in space against the perimeter guys.”

3. Win the right games

This might sound counterintuitive, but some of Green Bay’s games will be more important than others. I’m not suggesting the Packers do anything other than try to win all of them. But we observers should keep priority and orderliness in mind when looking at their schedule.

In terms of tiebreakers and playoff seeding, division games are most important -- even if it has nothing to do with winning the title. Conference matchups rank next, followed by AFC games. So if I’m making a priority list of the teams I think the Packers need to beat to make the playoffs, it’s going to look like this:

A. Detroit
B. Chicago
C. Seattle
D. Arizona
E. Baltimore
F. Pittsburgh

I ranked Seattle and Baltimore ahead of Arizona and Pittsburgh because they’re home games. No tiebreaker applies to home victories, but any playoff plan should include winning your home games first.

4. Make a standard out of the special-teams performance we saw Sunday.

The Packers have had their share of coverage problems this season, and our friends over at Football Outsiders ranked their special teams last in the NFL through the first nine games of the season. But I thought the Packers put forth a mostly winning effort Sunday.

No one can be happy about Josh Morgan’s 76-yard kickoff return in the fourth quarter. Moving past that play, however, the 49ers managed 18.7 yards on their other three kickoff returns and 2.3 yards on three punt returns.

Meanwhile, Williams’ 27-yard punt return set up what turned out to be a key field goal at the end of the first half. And don’t forget that Derrick Martin downed a Jeremy Kapinos punt at the 49ers’ 2-yard line in the fourth quarter. On the next play, safety Nick Collins intercepted Alex Smith to set up the Packers’ final touchdown.

You can’t solve any problem overnight, special teams or otherwise. But if the Packers can minimize big returns and make some positive plays to balance them out, I think what they did Sunday would suffice in a playoff race.

Week 12 Power Rankings: NFC North

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:05:49 EDT

The way I see it, we’re all where we should be in ESPN.com’s Week 12 Power Rankings.

Minnesota and Green Bay are in the top 12, where playoff-caliber teams reside. Chicago and Detroit? Let’s just say they’re not.

Here’s scary turn of events for Bears fans: This week, at least, you’re closer to the Lions than you are to the Packers. Let’s take a look:

3. Minnesota Vikings
Trending: No change for fourth consecutive week.

12. Green Bay Packers
Trending: Up three spots from last week.

23. Chicago Bears
Trending: Down four spots from last week.

29. Detroit Lions
Trending: Up two spots from last week.