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Rams predictions, then and now

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 14:00:26 EDT

What I wrote April 17: "My initial projection calls for a 6-10 record."

What I wrote Sept. 12: "The Rams could improve this season and still conceivably take an 0-7 record into Detroit. ... In retrospect, the 6-10 projection made in April seems optimistic."

What actually happened: A summer diet featuring salmon and other brain food added just enough IQ points for me to trade that 6-10 Rams dream for that accurate 0-7 Rams nightmare. For the Rams, injuries have obliterated what was already a slim margin for error. No team in the division has placed more starters on injured reserve.

What happens next: The Rams might win two more games in getting to 3-13. Even that might be optimistic.

Seahawks predictions, then and now

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:45:46 EDT

What I wrote April 16: "My initial read shows seven or eight victories, with the season possibly hinging on a Week 6 home game against the Cardinals."

What I wrote Sept. 12: "That would get Seattle to 8-8, one game better than I foresaw as likely in April. Matt Hasselbeck's health so far might explain the difference. I think it makes the Seahawks more likely to beat the Cardinals at home in Week 6. I could see them winning at Houston and at home against the Titans. For Seattle, no record between 7-9 and 10-6 would surprise me."

What actually happened: Hasselbeck did not stay healthy. He suffered a broken rib in Week 2. The Seahawks lost at home to the Bears largely because Hasselbeck was not available. Catastrophic injuries at left tackle prevented them from competing against Arizona in that Week 6 game. The season did hinge on that game.

What happens next: I'm expecting two or three more victories, which would make 6-10 or 7-9 seem like an achievement.

49ers predictions, then and now

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:30:26 EDT

What I wrote April 15: "Can you find more than eight victories for San Francisco without wearing the 49ers Starter jacket your family has owned since 1984? My initial look at the schedule shows 7-9 or 8-8, depending largely on how the quarterback situation evolves."

What I wrote Sept. 12: "This outlook differs slightly from the one published in April. That one suggested a possible 3-2 record heading into the bye, followed by a 1-4 record over the next five games and a 4-2 push to close the season. One question now would be whether the 49ers' approach to training camp made them vulnerable to wearing down, or if it steeled them for a late push. The new outlook sees the 49ers possibly taking a 2-3 record into the bye on their way to 4-6 and, ultimately, right around 8-8."

What actually happened: The 49ers went from 3-2 to 4-6, consistent with expectations.

What happens next: The 49ers will probably finish 7-9 or 8-8, consistent with expectations. Beating the Jaguars and Cardinals at Candlestick becomes essential, in my view, if the 49ers hope to avoid another losing record. I think Arizona will beat the 49ers in the rematch.

Cardinals predictions, then and now

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:10:27 EDT

What I wrote April 15: "Predicting individual games can be rough this far out, but taking the schedule in sections can make the process a little easier. My initial expectation is for the Cardinals to win between eight and 10 games. Let's go with 9-7 for now."

What I wrote Sept. 12: "I've tentatively got the Cardinals going 1-2 at home against the Colts, Vikings and Packers. Switching one of those games into the win column could turn my 9-7 projection into the Cardinals' first season with double-digit victories since 1976."

What actually happened: The Cardinals have gone 5-0 on the road, surpassing any reasonable expectations.

What happens next: Arizona could still go 1-2 at home in those games I outlined against Indianapolis, Minnesota and Green Bay. But with five road victories in the bank and a relatively easy schedule down the stretch, the Cardinals should get to 10-6 or even 11-5.

Revisiting expectations in the NFC West

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 12:42:02 EDT

In retrospect, the Cardinals' 27-3 victory over the Seahawks at Qwest Field in Week 6 was a watershed event in the 2009 NFC West race.

The Seahawks were coming off a 41-0 victory over the Jaguars in Matt Hasselbeck's return from injury. I expected a competitive game between Seattle and Arizona. Both teams seemed to have worries in pass protection. Seahawks rookie Aaron Curry was looking like a player the Cardinals needed to fear as a pass-rusher, particularly in a loud stadium. Seattle had major issues on the left side of its line, but the team had previously weathered injuries to linemen better than in past seasons.

Instead of a competitive game, the Arizona-Seattle matchup became a mismatch. The Cardinals blew out the Seahawks before beating the Giants on the road. The division hasn't been the same since.

This seems like a good time to revisit some of the projections we discussed entering Week 6.

49ers

They were 3-2 at the time. I projected a 4-5 record after the next four games. That was accurate. The team is now 4-6. I thought the 49ers might have problems against the Bears based on "how well Jay Cutler has been playing recently" -- but Cutler was struggling again by the time he faced San Francisco.

Cardinals

They were 2-2 at the time. I projected a 3-5 record after their next four games, totally misreading which games Arizona would win and lose. I figured they would lose on the road to the Giants and Bears while beating the Panthers at home. Good luck figuring out this team.

Seahawks

The Seahawks were 2-3. I figured they would get to 4-5 if they could find a way to beat the Cardinals in Week 6. They could not. They were 3-6 instead and on their way to 3-7, worse than expected. There was also some thought that Walter Jones would be returning. That never happened. The Seahawks have been worse than I expected.

Rams

They were 0-5 at the time. I projected they would be 1-8 through nine games. They were. "I still think the Rams will surprise someone along the way," I wrote then. "Perhaps it happens at Jacksonville in Week 6." The Rams lost that game in overtime. They've beaten only the Lions to this point.

I'll be back shortly with team-by-team posts revisiting projections made one day before the 2009 regular season opened.

Mike Sando's MVP Watch

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 12:04:13 EDT

Brett Favre assumes the top spot on the MVP Watch list after turning a good team into a championship-caliber one.

The Vikings are 9-1 and gaining momentum.

Favre has matched Peyton Manning with 21 touchdown passes, one off Drew Brees' league-leading total. Favre has six fewer interceptions than Manning or Brees while joining them among an elite list of quarterbacks averaging at least 8 yards per pass attempt.

Favre's ascension into the top spot after Week 11 sent me back through comments from the Sept. 23 edition -- the first one featuring Favre in any capacity (he was then eighth).

"Are you kidding me, take Favre off the list!" vman112012 wrote. "What has he done so far to warrant any mentioning? Adrian Peterson is the one carrying that offense."

The point had some merit and vman112012 was not alone.

"This love affair with Favre is absolutely out of control," Sphinn wrote. "Hey ESPN, the '90s have been over for almost a decade!"

Right. As if I automatically fell in love with Favre upon joining ESPN a couple of years ago. Hey, I was the guy who thought the Vikings were selling their souls for a washed-up quarterback. Favre, after all, had thrown more touchdowns than interceptions just once in his four most recent seasons.

"When he leads a fourth-quarter come back drive to win the game," xpollolocox wrote, "then we can say he got them that one extra win that makes them better than last year."

Four days later, Favre threw the winning touchdown pass against the 49ers in the final seconds, the most spectacular play by a quarterback this season.

The legend was reborn at age 39, and now 40. He has only gained momentum in the subsequent weeks. No full-time quarterback in the league can match his passer rating (112.1).

When Rams safety Oshiomogho Atogwe rated the Vikings over the Colts and Saints among teams he had faced, I asked him for his MVP vote.

"Right now, I would have to give it to Brett Favre just because the Minnesota Vikings were not a clear-cut contender for the Super Bowl last year," Atogwe said. "They are now, and I think that largely has to do with the arrival of Brett Favre and him really being able to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers. He is also doing a great job taking care of the football."

49ers giving up big pass plays

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 11:49:02 EDT

Deep trouble

The 49ers have faced some tough quarterbacks this season, including the Packers' Aaron Rodgers in Week 11. So far, the Chiefs are the only NFL team to allow more pass plays covering 30 yards or longer. The chart breaks down the totals by NFC West team, ranked by percentage of total passes allowed covering 30-plus yards. Source: ESPN Stats & Information.

NFC West team	30+ pass plays allowed	Percent
49ers	19	5.0%
Rams	12	3.8%
Cardinals	14	3.7%
Seahawks	8	2.3%

Around the NFC West: Starting Leinart?

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 10:01:18 EDT

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic says the Cardinals should start Matt Leinart against the Titans. Somers: "The most important reason is Warner's health. The Cardinals and Warner need to make sure he's healthy for not only the rest of the season, but the rest of his life. It also would be an ideal time for the Cardinals to gather evidence about the future of backup Matt Leinart. Can he play?" It would be tough to sit Warner if the quarterback were medically cleared for the game. Even if he sits out this week, the Vikings figure to hit him quite a bit in Week 13.

Also from Somers: Adding Monty Beisel should help the Cardinals' depth on defense. Beisel played well in passing situations last season. Somers: "The Chiefs released him in September, and the Cardinals were reluctant to sign him right away. They were fairly healthy at linebacker then and there was no need to take on Beisel's salary. Things have changed, and the club is fortunate Beisel was available. And Beisel fortunate to have a job. It's a good late-season addition."

Matt Maiocco of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat casts the 49ers' final six games as critical for the direction of the team on that side of the ball. Maiocco: "Team sources say there is no plan to ever go back to (Shaun) Hill because he was never viewed as more than a short-term solution. Smith, the No.1 overall pick in the 2005 draft, is the quarterback who gives the 49ers the best to win, club officials believe. The 49ers need to find out in the final six games of the season whether Smith is the long-term answer at the most important position."

Lowell Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat quotes 49ers coach Mike Singletary this way on the team's offense: "One of the worst things we could do right now is to put Alex Smith in shotgun and say, 'OK, let's go get it, guys,' and let him throw 40, 50 times a game. Alex is throwing as well as any quarterback in the league right now. He is as accurate as any quarterback in the league." The first part of that statement is true. The second part -- about Smith playing as well as any quarterback in the league -- is pure flattery. If Smith were playing as well as Peyton Manning, the 49ers would be wise to overhaul their offensive philosophy 10 games into the season. Smith is not playing at that level, of course, and that is why the team should not ask him to carry the offense for four quarters.

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch expects the Seahawks-Rams game to be blacked out locally in St. Louis. More than 8,000 tickets remained Tuesday.

Also from Thomas: Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo aches over the team's problems stopping the run. Spagnuolo: "It kills me." This is what happens when a team with sketchy depth in its front seven loses multiple defensive tackles to season-ending injuries. More from Spagnuolo: "I wish it was one thing all the time. But it's not. And we did talk as a defense [Monday] that when we do play the so-called eight-man front, like what everybody does against us, you can't be giving up runs of 10, 18, 18, 10 [yards] -- I mean, they're in my head, so I know."

More from Thomas: "If I had to handicap it, I'd say it's better than 50-50 that Bulger won't be back next year. The problem with the QB class in the draft is that it's suddenly a muddled picture. Bradford gets hurt. Tebow has the concussion and Florida isn't nearly as prolific offensively. I've said this before, I think it's far from a slam dunk that the Rams take a QB in the first round."

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times says the Seahawks need to rebuild their offensive line. O'Neil: "Seattle has not drafted a person to play tackle since choosing Ray Willis in the fourth round of the 2005 draft, resulting in a lack of depth at that position exposed so glaringly this season. Seattle has started a player signed one week before the regular season began (Brandon Frye) and one signed in the middle of the season (Damion McIntosh). Both played left tackle, and if a team can just go sign one off the street the whole NFL salary structure is off-base."

Greg Johns of seattlepi.com wonders what happened to the swaggering, aggressive Aaron Curry seen early in the Seahawks' season. The NFL repeatedly fined that Curry. Will he come back? Coach Jim Mora: "What we've tried to do the last couple weeks is take a little bit off his plate, let him focus a little more on being a first- and second-down linebacker now that we've got Leroy back and Leroy can do some of the things in the nickel. Hopefully that gives him a little surge to go down the stretch here."

Eric D. Williams of the Tacoma News Tribune says the Seahawks cannot take for granted a victory over the 1-9 Rams.

Field Gulls' crushedoptimist revisits a Mike Holmgren timeline I put together years ago, still available here and featuring this entry for April 14, 2000: "RB Ahman Green is traded to Green Bay for CB Fred Vinson. Holmgren was fed up with Green’s fumbling and nearly released the talented runner before aides convinced him to work a trade with his former team. The trade backfires famously when Vinson suffers career-ending knee injuries while Green leads Packers’ revival." Drafting Shaun Alexander that year helped make up for Green's departure.

John Morgan of Field Gulls says Matt Hasselbeck hasn't been the same since suffering a rib injury against the 49ers in Week 2. Hasselbeck looked good against the Jaguars in his first game back, however.

Also from Morgan: The Seattle running game should fare better down the stretch based on the opposition. I think the entire offense will gain momentum over the final six games.

Rod Mar of seahawks.com offers photos from the Seahawks' trip to Minnesota, including one of Brett Favre and Matt Hasselbeck catching up pregame.

Mailbag: What to do with Bulger

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:29:52 EDT

Gabe from St. Louis writes: Regarding to bringing QB Marc Bulger back for the 2010 season, I have a question which to me would be key to whether or not he should come back. Is there a strong possibility that Bulger will be released to save money and then re-signed for a much less contract? Personally, if that happens, I would be all for it because the biggest issue with Bulger is his contract. His play is less than average, don't get me wrong, but at this point we have no other options. If that isn't even possible, then why?

Mike Sando: Yeah, there's no way at this point he'll return for his $8.5 million salary. The team might have even made a change last offseason if Bulger's contract hadn't called for so much of his 2009 money to be guaranteed. I question whether Bulger would take that kind of cut to come back. He might be better off getting a fresh start someplace else. The issue for the Rams is whether they could find another quarterback just as good for, say, half the money.

Tjh1328 from Tamarac, Fla., writes: You fellow Rams fans need to understand football. You like to blame Marc Bulger for all our problems. The offensive line is horrible and has been bad and/or injured over the past five years. The defesive front stinks and has for a long time. DO NOT BLAME BULGER. This orginization has no clue on how to manage the salary cap. Look around the league at all the ex-Rams on other rosters. Teams like New England, Pittsburg, Indianapolis, the Giants, etc., are always competetive, because they know how to use the salary cap. So please blame the correct people.

Mike Sando: There's plenty of blame to go around, but much of it goes to people no longer with the organization. The new cap manager, Kevin Demoff, had quite a mess to clean up. I think he is doing that. The question would be whether the Rams pared back too far. In retrospect, they might have, but let's say they had found a way to keep a few more players and it got them, say, two or three more victories. Would you be happy?

As for the offensive line, it has improved quite a bit. One thing Bulger doesn't always have is a great feel for moving within the pocket. I noticed that Sunday when Kurt Warner moved around and bought time despite being 38 years old and not very fast. If I were to defend Bulger, I would point to learning a new system, dropped passes and a poor situation at wide receiver.

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You called it: Close on Seahawks-Vikings

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:10:51 EDT

Our prediction contest for Week 11 produced no additions to the Wall of Fame, but three came within one point of predicting the score and outcome for the Seahawks-Vikings game.

_Mr Zero_� joined bigd33rams81 and nvora810md257 with 35-10 predictions (35-9 actual score).

Five came within two points of hitting the Packers' 30-24 victory over the 49ers (nice work, fapagan, ineufeld1, hummdog1212, kathysu85 and jayric81).

supninerfan and shack707humboldt came closest on the Cardinals-Rams prediction. Both predicted a 21-17 Cardinals victory (21-13 actual score).

The fine print: Those submitting predictions for "You called it" must pick the winner correctly for their scores to be considered. Scoring is easy to calculate. The difference between a 20-17 prediction and a 31-14 outcome would be 14 points. We would calculate this by adding the difference between 20 and 31 to the difference between 17 and 14.

Those picking scores and outcomes correctly earn spots on the Wall of Fame:

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