Friday, February 22, 2013
Computers vs. Scout: Hyun-Jin Ryu
By Mark Saxon
Whom to trust, a computer or a scout? By now, every team in the major leagues blends both approaches. So, we thought we’d try to give a fuller picture of what to expect from some of the Dodgers’ key players this season by surveying a veteran scout who covers the Dodgers regularly, and then assembling two of the better known computer projection systems, ZiPS and Bill James.
Next up: Hyun-Jin Ryu. Final installment: Carl Crawford.
ZiPS: 3.99 ERA, 180 1/3 innings, 169 strikeouts.
Scout: 10-9, 3.95 ERA, 135 innings, 125 strikeouts.
I've never seen him in person, but I've seen him on tape. I see a low-in-the-rotation starter who's going to give you 27 or 28 starts. I think he's going to have a problem with walking guys. Starters have control for the most part. They don't walk guys. Bullpen guys do, so it will be interesting to see where he ends up. Conditioning is one question, lack of knowledge of the hitters is another. He'll nibble. He throws hard enough. He's got some angle and can get the ball in to a right-handed hitter. The Korean league is not what Japan is and Japan is not what the U.S. is. I think he'll find his water level, but I'm not sure that level is real, real high.
Consensus: Mediocre season.