
Letting Go?
Pau Gasol's trade value won't get any higher, but what about his value to L.A.? Should the Lakers trade him now or hang on to their center? Vote
He accepts uncertainty »Lakers Index »
“The future is uncertain,” Gasol said. “There’s no doubt about it. It’s a possibility that I could be gone and there’s a possibility that I could stay. I don’t know the exact percentages of it. But I’m prepared for either way.
“I understand the challenges that the franchise is facing, the decisions that they have to make in order to keep the team in the direction that they want to -- looking at the present and the future and also understanding the business side of it. So, it’s a lot going on. I wish things were a little simpler, but they’re not. So we’ll see.”
If the Lakers keep next season's payroll at about $100 million, as it was in 2012-13, the team would owe about $85 million in additional luxury-tax penalties because of the more punitive stipulations in the league’s new collective bargaining agreement.
Could Gasol and the rest of the Lakers' major pieces all be back next season? Kupchak said that possibility is “in play.”
“We haven’t ruled anything out as of now,” he said.
Yet Kupchak used similar language to admit that the opposite is also a possibility: "When you lose, everybody is in play ... whether it's Pau or anybody else, we'll look for ways to improve the team."
Gasol's contract has one year remaining at $19.3 million. From a financial perspective, the assumption was that the Lakers would try to trade his expiring deal or opt to use their one-time amnesty provision on the 12-year veteran.
“(Kupchak) couldn’t really tell me, ‘Hey, thanks for everything you’ve done, it’s more likely you’re going to be gone,’ or no, ‘Don’t worry about it, you’re going to stay here. We’re going to make it happen,’” Gasol said. “Which is to be expected. I appreciate Mitch’s honesty and everything that he’s done and the franchise has done for the last two years to keep me here and have me on the team.”
The two-year time frame Gasol was referring to started with his nearly being traded and has included a second-round exit from the playoffs last season, coach Mike Brown's being fired early this season, and a first-round sweep at the hands of the San Antonio Spurs last week.
Gasol, who turns 33 in July, said his experience with the Lakers changed significantly after the three-way trade between the Lakers, Houston Rockets and New Orleans Hornets was vetoed by NBA commissioner David Stern on the eve of the first day of training camp for the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season.
Nervous questions like “how can the Lakers make the playoffs” are now being replaced with sober inquiries such as “How will Mitch Kupchak fix this mess?”
Naturally, attention is turning toward the Lakers’ upcoming draft picks. If there’s one silver lining to missing the playoffs and landing in the lottery, it’s that the team usually gets a pretty good rookie to show for it. Problem is, the Lakers never envisioned being in this situation, and instead used their upcoming picks like chips at a poker table, throwing them into the pot in order to go all-in with their current hand.
Lottery pick? Not this time.
In two separate but interconnected trades, the Lakers dealt away most of their future draft assets. Let’s look at what happened earlier this year in order to understand what’s going to happen in June when David Stern calls his final draft.
March 15, 2012: The Lakers traded Luke Walton, Jason Kapono, a conditional 2012 first round pick (used to select Jared Cunningham at the 24 spot), future draft considerations and cash to Cleveland for Ramon Sessions and Christian Eyenga.
While this trade brought the Lakers a stopgap point guard in Sessions, it’s the future draft considerations we want to focus on here. The Cavs had already stockpiled first-round picks from the Heat (in the post-decision LeBron James sign-and-trade) and Kings (as part of their J.J. Hickson-Omri Casspi deal in 2011). In the Sessions trade, the Cavs gained the right to swap the worst of these picks and their own pick with the Lakers, as long as the Lakers’ pick isn’t in the lottery.
From the Lakers’ perspective, this means that if they miss the 2013 playoffs and land in the lottery, they retain their pick. If they make the playoffs, then they will enter the draft with the worst pick from among their own, the Cavs’, the Heat’s and the Kings’ picks.
As a result of this trade, the Lakers’ pick had been partially spoken-for, but they still retained control of it if it turned out to be one of the top 14. This meant they were free to trade it again, as long as it was traded on the condition that it was one of the top 14 picks. They could even trade their pick if it wasn’t one of the top 14, so long as the trade specified that they were giving up whatever pick Cleveland left them with.
That’s exactly what they did.
July 11, 2012: The Lakers traded a 2013 first-round pick, a 2015 first-round pick, two second-round picks (in 2013 and 2014) and cash to Phoenix for Steve Nash.
In a trade that was widely viewed as a coup for the Lakers, the team acquired one of the premier point guards of the millennium (albeit the 38-year-old-version) for what was thought to be a collection of odds-and-ends. Again, we want to focus on the 2013 pick here.
The Lakers essentially agreed to give the Suns whatever pick they end up with in 2013. If the team misses the playoffs and ends up in the lottery (with one of the top 14 picks), the pick goes directly to Phoenix. If the Lakers somehow make the playoffs, then the Cavs still get the first shot at it, and the Lakers will end up with the worst pick from among the four aforementioned teams. But then whichever pick the Lakers end up with would go to Phoenix.
In summary, any way you slice it, the Suns get a first-round pick from the Lakers this summer. If we project the current records to the end of the season, the Lakers would be in the lottery and likely end up with the 10th pick, and the pick would be conveyed to Phoenix. (Historians will note that the Lakers’ only visits to the lottery were in 1994 and 2005, and both times they had the 10th pick, selecting Eddie Jones and Andrew Bynum, respectively.)
So if the Lakers want to have a first-round pick in this June’s draft, they’re going to have to trade for one. Their own pick will go to either Phoenix or Cleveland (likely Phoenix), and the team will be on the outside looking in on June 27. Unless Kupchak trades for another pick, his options are limited.
If Kupchak wants to fix the team through the draft, he likely won’t have a 2013 first-round pick at his disposal.
To say the least, the last seven days have been a whirlwind, even by the Lakers' high standards. With the dust now settled, does the franchise still appear on the right track?
"I have no problems with Mike Brown at all," Buss said. "He just works too hard and he's too knowledgeable for this to be happening.
"So either the system is flawed or something's going on. Or, like the Triangle, it's very hard to pick up and understand. I'm not a basketball mind like he is or the players are, and the players are fine with it, so I just have to be patient."
Buss says he has been gauging player reaction to the Lakers' new Princeton offense, Brown and how they're dealing with the slow start by reading their public comments and talking to them directly. On Tuesday afternoon, he went down from his office to the court during practice to take their temperature, and he said he found things to be rather calm.
"Kobe [Bryant] and I have a relationship where he can just look at me and say, 'Everything's cool,' " Buss said. "So yesterday during practice, I gave Kobe a quick glance, and everything was cool." ...
... In Buss' own words, "this team was built to win now." So just how patient can he be?
"You have to give it time to understand [what's going on]," Buss said. "I don't know if there's an actual game total that would make me impatient. I know if we're 1-15, I don't think that would be very good. I'm sure that would be a panic button. But at this time, I'm fine with what's going on. It's a learning process for the players. As long as everybody is on the same page, I think we're fine."
"You have to be as ready to learn and listen as you do contribute. And you contribute by learning and listening. Taking a step back. Knowing when to step back. Knowing when to leave the room. Knowing when to be present. A lot goes into the personal dynamics of making a super group or a collaboration work. But when they work, they work. It's chemistry."
- (21:45): Ben didn't get my August memo about why the 2013 super team Lakers aren't the 2004 super team Lakers, so we break down the differences and calm his nerves.Glen: It's a crazy world.
H.I.: Someone oughta sell tickets.
Glen: Sure, I'd buy one.
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Kobe Bryant
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| OTHER LEADERS | ||||||||||||
| Rebounds | D. Howard | 12.4 | ||||||||||
| Assists | S. Nash | 6.7 | ||||||||||
| Steals | M. World ... | 1.6 | ||||||||||
| Blocks | D. Howard | 2.4 | ||||||||||