Mailbag: Top 25 and Hundley vs. Kelly

February, 4, 2014
Feb 4
7:00
PM PT
May the mailbag be ever in your favor.

Peter writes: With regards to Pac-12 guys in the Super Bowl, I think you missed Sione Fua, Stanford. DT for the Broncos. Got picked up in November after getting cut by Carolina. I don't think he played Sunday, but I believe he was active.

Kevin Gemmell: The article stipulated that there are other players on the rosters who aren't mentioned because they were inactive. Fua was inactive, per the final stat book.


Sam in Wyoming writes: Will Sutton at 7? Seriously? What makes Kevin and Ted more knowledgeable than the Pac-12 coaches? Do you know something they didn't know? Are you basing this on NFL potential? I just don't see how the player voted No. 1 on defense by the coaches can fall so low.

[+] EnlargeWill Sutton
AP Photo/Ross D. FranklinJust because we didn't have Arizona State DT Will Sutton higher doesn't mean we didn't think he had a great year. No. 7 is a pretty good ranking.
Kevin Gemmell: What makes us more knowledgeable? Absolutely nothing. We’re a couple of guys throwing up our opinions. Do with them what you want.

We’re not privy to the coaches’ voting process. From what I understand, it takes place in the bowels of the Pac-12 headquarters and the coaches sit in conclave for days coming up with the list. When they finally do, white smoke is released so the whole world knows that the all-conference team is complete. Here’s what it looks like.

Sutton was a consensus All-American, and everyone ahead of him was either a consensus All-American, a unanimous All-American, a finalist for a national award or the winner of a national award. There are two other defensive players ahead of him. Trent Murphy led the Pac-12 with 15 sacks. Barr was third in the league with 10. Sutton wasn’t in the top 20. Murphy and Barr were first and second, respectively, in tackles for a loss. Murphy had 23.5, Barr had 20. Sutton was 12th with 13.5.

Sutton’s role was different in 2013 than it was in 2012. He put on the extra weight and was asked to be more of a double-team eater than the backfield wrecking ball that he was last year. And his drop-off in stats were a reflection of that.

Further, the ASU defense had 12 fewer sacks in 2013 than it did in 2012 (52 vs. 40) and the scoring defense went up from 24.3 points per game in 2012 to 26.6 points per game in 2013.

Sutton is an outstanding player and was the best defensive lineman in the league. And he was ranked accordingly. But all six players in front him, in the opinion of the Pac-12 blog, deserved to be ahead of him.

Yes, we use the all-conference teams, as voted on by the coaches, as a gauge. But if we went with that, Sutton or Carey would be either No. 1 or No. 2 (interchangeable) and Mariota would be No. 3. and Jack would be in the top 10 for winning offensive and defense freshman of the year.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins was second-team all-conference, but won the Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end.

No list is ever going to be perfect, especially when you have two strong-willed reporters butting heads on a couple of things. But it’s pretty tough to complain when the players ahead of Sutton consist of two Doak Walker finalists, the Biletnikoff winner, one of the top quarterbacks in the nation and two outside linebackers who put up monster stats.


Ken in Clearlake, Calif., writes: Hey Kevin: In an article you wrote about Myles Jack, you mentioned he was the first freshman to score four touchdowns in a game for UCLA. What about Eric Ball (freshman running back) in the 1986 Rose Bowl: He scored four touchdowns against Iowa in relief of Gaston Greene for UCLA.

Kevin Gemmell: That is a fine question, Ken. And I did not have the answer to it. So I submitted it to the good folks at UCLA’s sports information department for clarification last night and Steve Rourke, SID extraordinaire, came back with this:
Ball played in one game in 1984 before getting injured and was a redshirt frosh in 1985 season.

So I guess the clarification required was redshirt vs. true. I bow to your historical knowledge of UCLA football and appreciate the question.


Inert1 in Bothell, Wash., writes: I think you pretty much nailed the top 25, to the extent that such a thing is possible. The problem with endeavors like this is that there are important positions on the field whose contributions can't be quantified easily, and they tend to get left in the dust. There are some amazing players in the Pac 12.

Kevin Gemmell: Couldn’t agree more. And that is often the problem with making lists like this. How do you gauge an offensive lineman vs. a 20-touchdown running back? How do you grade a lockdown cornerback who doesn’t get the stats because teams don’t throw at him vs. an outside linebacker who has more tangible numbers?

As Ted and I have always said in the past when making this list, we tend to favor quarterbacks. As we wrote in our Take 2 this morning, I think that came back to bite us in the tush a little bit this year with Marcus Mariota over Ka'Deem Carey.

But these lists are obviously subjective. That’s why we give you guys the opportunity to make your own lists. Hope you’ll put one together.

But we can all agree on your last point. There are indeed some amazing players in the Pac-12.


D.J. in Berkeley, Calif. writes: Do you think there is any chance we will see (Luke) Rubenzer starting for the Bears this fall? As talented as (Jared) Goff is, he wasn't able to get the ball in the end zone last season despite a group of prolific receivers. I think Goff will develop into a very good quarterback, but I'm curious if Rubenzer might have the spark that was missing from the offense last season.

Kevin Gemmell: My question to you is this: How is Goff going to develop into a very good quarterback if he’s sitting on the bench?

Sonny Dykes obviously isn’t afraid to start a true freshman quarterback. So I don’t think we can completely rule out the possibility of Rubenzer pressing Goff.

At the same time, you threw that true freshman into the fire last year and you’ve got to give him an opportunity to prove himself. He already set a Cal passing record with 3,508 passing yards in a season. I think you have to give Goff a good, healthy chunk of the season to show some progress when it comes to finding points. Because you’re right. For as much as the Bears were able to move the ball, they were last in the league in scoring offense (23 points per game). Let’s not also forget that they were last in scoring defense as well (45.9 points per game), so the problems weren’t just on the offensive side of the ball.

There are a lot of issues that need to get fixed with Cal. It might not specifically be the quarterback. But rather quarterback efficiency and seeing if Goff can take the next step. If he hasn’t by midseason -- or if he completely regresses during spring and fall camp -- then we might see another youngster step up.


Alex in Sacramento writes: With very similar 2013 stats and similar playing styles, I think an argument could be made for either Brett Hundley or Taylor Kelly as the second-best quarterback in the Pac-12. As a huge UCLA fan, I'd argue for Hundley, though I admit it's a tough call. What I don't understand is why Kelly was the second-team All-Pac-12 QB, but Hundley finished six spots in front of Kelly in the Top 25. Could you comment on the differences between these two quarterbacks and why you ranked Hundley higher while the coaches picked Kelly for the second-team all-conference?

Kevin Gemmell: I think Kelly being the second-team guy had as much to do with the Sun Devils winning the South and posting the best overall record in the conference as much as anything.

Our reasoning for putting Hundley ahead was multifold. First, he had better overall numbers in the stats that matter. He had a higher completion percentage, fewer interceptions, he took fewer sacks (granted, Kelly played in one more game) and had a higher QBR, both raw and adjusted. Hundley’s raw QBR was 77.6 vs. Kelly’s 61.5. When you factor adjusted QBR, Hundley’s was 84.8 to Kelly’s 74.3. Hundley’s adjusted QBR puts him seventh nationally; Kelly is 24th.

Kelly had more total touchdowns with 37 (28 passing, nine rushing) to Hundley’s 35 (24 passing, 11 rushing). Hundley rushed for 140 more yards in one fewer game.

Both are outstanding quarterbacks, but I think you could argue that Kelly had a stronger supporting cast with Jaelen Strong and Marion Grice at his disposal. Hundley didn’t have a 1,000-yard receiver or a running back who scored 20 times.

When we added all of that up and took it all into consideration, we believed Hundley should be the higher ranked of the two.


Scott writes: Wow you guys did not put De'Anthony Thomas on the top 25? Not that I care, but I would suggest you and Ted do not go to OR for a while; you know how those duck fans are.

Kevin Gemmell: I do know how Oregon fans are. They are like every other fan base that cares passionately about their team and its players. But like every other fan base, they are (usually) capable of accepting reality.

And the reality is Thomas, while spectacular when healthy and playing within his niche, didn’t have the kind of season that warrants being on the top 25. And you know what? I haven’t received a single complaint from an Oregon fan. Because they recognize that his limited performance this year didn’t warrant it.

So bravo, Oregon fans. You just went up a notch in my book. Ted, however, I believe, still hates your team.

SPONSORED HEADLINES

Comments

Use a Facebook account to add a comment, subject to Facebook's Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Your Facebook name, photo & other personal information you make public on Facebook will appear with your comment, and may be used on ESPN's media platforms. Learn more.


2014 TEAM LEADERS

PASSINGATTCOMPYDSTD
B. Hundley204148185613
RUSHINGCARYDSAVGTD
P. Perkins1308136.33
B. Hundley923053.34
RECEIVINGRECYDSAVGTD
J. Payton4259914.35
D. Fuller312568.31
TEAMRUSHPASSTOTAL
Offense200.6291.9492.4
TEAMPFPAMARGIN
Scoring35.129.35.9