By Derek Czenczelewski, ESPN Stats and Info
Hindsight is always 20/20 as they say, and that certainly holds true when wheeling and dealing. Trades excite fans from coast to coast, yet many times teams end up sacrificing their future for a shot at a proven commodity in hopes of a title run. This piece sets out to shine the spotlight on some of the most notable Angels trades since 2005 utilizing statistical analysis and the sabermetric WAR.
WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement and is a relatively complicated formula that in the end answers the question, “how much value would the team lose if a replacement player took his spot?” The calculation turns out an approximate win total the player holds. Now on to the trades:
* Best Trade: July 29, 2008: Angels trade Steve Marek and Casey Kotchman to the Atlanta Braves for Mark Teixeira. (Angels Net WAR Gain: 2.6 and stagnant.)
While only a rental, the Angels gave up very little to acquire Mark Teixeira. In 54 games with the Angels, Teixeira hit .358 with a .449 OBP, 13 home runs and 43 RBI, all while providing Gold Glove caliber defense and tallying a 3.3 WAR. Upon his departure via free agency, the Angels acquired two draft picks, a first-rounder from the Yankees and a compensatory sandwich pick.
The Angels used the first-round pick on Mike Trout, an outfield prospect who made the 2010 All-Star Futures Game. Overall, the Angels got MVP-caliber play from Teixeira and followed it up with a potential future All-Star. In addition, the loss of Teixeira allowed the Angels to find a real stud in Kendry Morales (4.2 WAR).
* Worst Trade: August 29, 2009: Angels trade Sean Rodriguez, Alex Torres and Matt Sweeney to the Tampa Bay Rays for Scott Kazmir. (Angels Net WAR Change: 0 and stagnant.)
Rodriguez (0.8 WAR) has proven to be a solid utility man while Torres, 22, has compiled a 31-16 record in his minor league career with a 3.12 ERA and 383 strikeouts. His ceiling is still high, whereas Sweeney’s is relatively low at this point. On paper, this trade looks like a steal for the Angels.
However, the reality is that Scott Kazmir has been awful since 2009 (0.8 WAR, -0.8 in 2010) and has only pitched over 200 innings once in his career (2007). At age 26, there is still time for Kazmir to put it all together, but the ceiling that didn’t seem to exist years ago is now starting to appear. This season Kazmir is 7-9 with a 6.92 ERA. With 71 earned runs allowed, he’s already on pace to shatter his previous high of 80 earned runs allowed in a season.
(dis)Honorable Mention: November 19, 2007: Angels trade Orlando Cabrerato the Chicago White Sox for Jon Garland. (Angels Net WAR Loss: -0.7 and stagnant.)
Neither team held onto either player past the 2008 season, but the Angels could have gotten more than Jon Garland (1.0 WAR with LAA) for Orlando Cabrera (9.0 WAR with LAA). In 2007 at the age of 32, Cabrera hit .301 with a .345 OBP and added 86 RBI (the second-best season total of his career). To go along with a tremendous offensive season, Cabrera added the second Gold Glove of his career in 2007. Jon Garland was an innings eater for the Angels, pitching 196.2 innings. However, his 4.90 ERA and poor K:BB ratio (90:59) caused the Angels to grant him free agency after just one season.
* Best Trade for Both Teams: February 28, 2006: Angels trade Alberto Callaspo to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Jason Bulger. (Angels Net WAR Loss: -1.8 and rising, slowly.)
The Angels were developing a logjam at second base, and never really saw Callaspo as their starting second base option. While Callaspo didn’t play much for the Diamondbacks, the value that he represents was fair compensation for Jason Bulger. Bulger (1.1 WAR) has pitched in five seasons for the Angels, compiling a 6-1 record with a 4.28 ERA and a K:BB ratio of 2:1 in 111.1 innings pitched.
While you will never confuse Bulger for a pre-2009 Scot Shields, he has been solid in middle relief for the Angels. Meanwhile, Callaspo has developed nicely in Kansas City after a two-year stint with the Diamondbacks in which he was hidden on the roster. Since joining Kansas City, Callaspo (2.9 WAR) has hit .294 with a .343 OBP, 19 home runs and has driven in 130 RBI. Again, you won’t confuse Callaspo for an All Star, but from a value to value standpoint, this trade was pretty even.
Notable traded players involving the Angels since 2005:
Traded For WAR with LAA
Brian Stokes -0.4
Scott Kazmir 0.8
Jon Garland 1.0
Mark Teixeira 3.3
J.C. Romero -0.9
Jason Bulger 1.1
Jose Molina 1.5
Alexi Casilla -1.7
A. Callaspo 2.9
Jeff Weaver -0.3
Traded Away WAR since Departure
Gary Matthews Jr. -0.2
Sean Rodriguez 0.8
Orlando Cabrera 1.7
Casey Kotchman 0.7
Brendan Donnelly 0.2
Kevin Gregg 3.3
Net WAR Gained Net WAR Lost
4.9 8.9
Hindsight is always 20/20 as they say, and that certainly holds true when wheeling and dealing. Trades excite fans from coast to coast, yet many times teams end up sacrificing their future for a shot at a proven commodity in hopes of a title run. This piece sets out to shine the spotlight on some of the most notable Angels trades since 2005 utilizing statistical analysis and the sabermetric WAR.
WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement and is a relatively complicated formula that in the end answers the question, “how much value would the team lose if a replacement player took his spot?” The calculation turns out an approximate win total the player holds. Now on to the trades:
* Best Trade: July 29, 2008: Angels trade Steve Marek and Casey Kotchman to the Atlanta Braves for Mark Teixeira. (Angels Net WAR Gain: 2.6 and stagnant.)
While only a rental, the Angels gave up very little to acquire Mark Teixeira. In 54 games with the Angels, Teixeira hit .358 with a .449 OBP, 13 home runs and 43 RBI, all while providing Gold Glove caliber defense and tallying a 3.3 WAR. Upon his departure via free agency, the Angels acquired two draft picks, a first-rounder from the Yankees and a compensatory sandwich pick.
The Angels used the first-round pick on Mike Trout, an outfield prospect who made the 2010 All-Star Futures Game. Overall, the Angels got MVP-caliber play from Teixeira and followed it up with a potential future All-Star. In addition, the loss of Teixeira allowed the Angels to find a real stud in Kendry Morales (4.2 WAR).
* Worst Trade: August 29, 2009: Angels trade Sean Rodriguez, Alex Torres and Matt Sweeney to the Tampa Bay Rays for Scott Kazmir. (Angels Net WAR Change: 0 and stagnant.)
Rodriguez (0.8 WAR) has proven to be a solid utility man while Torres, 22, has compiled a 31-16 record in his minor league career with a 3.12 ERA and 383 strikeouts. His ceiling is still high, whereas Sweeney’s is relatively low at this point. On paper, this trade looks like a steal for the Angels.
However, the reality is that Scott Kazmir has been awful since 2009 (0.8 WAR, -0.8 in 2010) and has only pitched over 200 innings once in his career (2007). At age 26, there is still time for Kazmir to put it all together, but the ceiling that didn’t seem to exist years ago is now starting to appear. This season Kazmir is 7-9 with a 6.92 ERA. With 71 earned runs allowed, he’s already on pace to shatter his previous high of 80 earned runs allowed in a season.
(dis)Honorable Mention: November 19, 2007: Angels trade Orlando Cabrerato the Chicago White Sox for Jon Garland. (Angels Net WAR Loss: -0.7 and stagnant.)
Neither team held onto either player past the 2008 season, but the Angels could have gotten more than Jon Garland (1.0 WAR with LAA) for Orlando Cabrera (9.0 WAR with LAA). In 2007 at the age of 32, Cabrera hit .301 with a .345 OBP and added 86 RBI (the second-best season total of his career). To go along with a tremendous offensive season, Cabrera added the second Gold Glove of his career in 2007. Jon Garland was an innings eater for the Angels, pitching 196.2 innings. However, his 4.90 ERA and poor K:BB ratio (90:59) caused the Angels to grant him free agency after just one season.
* Best Trade for Both Teams: February 28, 2006: Angels trade Alberto Callaspo to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Jason Bulger. (Angels Net WAR Loss: -1.8 and rising, slowly.)
The Angels were developing a logjam at second base, and never really saw Callaspo as their starting second base option. While Callaspo didn’t play much for the Diamondbacks, the value that he represents was fair compensation for Jason Bulger. Bulger (1.1 WAR) has pitched in five seasons for the Angels, compiling a 6-1 record with a 4.28 ERA and a K:BB ratio of 2:1 in 111.1 innings pitched.
While you will never confuse Bulger for a pre-2009 Scot Shields, he has been solid in middle relief for the Angels. Meanwhile, Callaspo has developed nicely in Kansas City after a two-year stint with the Diamondbacks in which he was hidden on the roster. Since joining Kansas City, Callaspo (2.9 WAR) has hit .294 with a .343 OBP, 19 home runs and has driven in 130 RBI. Again, you won’t confuse Callaspo for an All Star, but from a value to value standpoint, this trade was pretty even.
Notable traded players involving the Angels since 2005:
Traded For WAR with LAA
Brian Stokes -0.4
Scott Kazmir 0.8
Jon Garland 1.0
Mark Teixeira 3.3
J.C. Romero -0.9
Jason Bulger 1.1
Jose Molina 1.5
Alexi Casilla -1.7
A. Callaspo 2.9
Jeff Weaver -0.3
Traded Away WAR since Departure
Gary Matthews Jr. -0.2
Sean Rodriguez 0.8
Orlando Cabrera 1.7
Casey Kotchman 0.7
Brendan Donnelly 0.2
Kevin Gregg 3.3
Net WAR Gained Net WAR Lost
4.9 8.9
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