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On Monday, Jon Jones put out his first statement since being arrested this weekend on suspicion of driving under the influence. He did this on Facebook. On the same day, Chael Sonnen filed for a therapeutic use exemption with the Nevada State Athletic Commission for the testosterone that put so many unflattering asterisks next to his name.

That went well. He got it. And he was even asked to become advisor on the subject, a kind of spokesman on the remedies of fleeting youth.

Also on Monday? Nick Diaz fidgeted before the NSAC and he and his lawyers tried to bridge a language barrier between marijuana and its metabolites. This didn’t go as well. Diaz was suspended a year and docked $60,000.

There were doctors called in both cases. Dr. Trainor (in Sonnen’s), and Dr. Sample (in Diaz’s). These weren’t pseudonyms. These were actual human beings. It has all the quality of fiction, but it’s happening.

It’s real. As real as it gets.

That’s why when Dana White’s “It’s Fiiiigggght Weeeeek!” tweet went out, it showed up like a plea to forget for a second about legal issues and hearings and keep the thing we’re all here for in focus.

UFC 146 is on deck -- the long-awaited, all-heavyweight card.

Only, the sad thing is even this couldn’t serve as a distraction. UFC 146 is the card that was drastically altered when heavyweight contender Alistair Overeem was popped for high testosterone levels. Now the UFC 146 we’re getting is entirely different from the original mock-up.

Needless to say, the UFC is going through a rough patch. In fact, at this point it requires imagination to not see the problems going on in MMA. Dana White may be prone to hyperbole, but you have to believe him when he says “bad s--- happens to me before my first foot hits the floor getting out of bed.”

The biggest concern before a fight used to be if all participants would make weight. In 2012, the year of globalization and network television, it’s a lot trickier. There are drug tests. There are loose cannon Twitter feeds to consider, breathalyzers, quack doctors and last-minute injuries.

As for after? There are a million experts who forecast the end of times when the television ratings and/or buy rates get reported. This past week the “Ultimate Fighter” produced a record-low rating on a spicy episode where Urijah Faber was to learn his next opponent. Right before that, the UFC on Fuel card that hosted a fight-of-the-year candidate between Chan Sung Jung and Dustin Poirier also registered a weak rating.

Gentlemen, ignite your doom.

And then there’s this thing about the UFC watering itself down with too many cards. Too many free ones, too many pay-per-views, too many cards that appear on channels that barely exist. The negatives are always magnified. A fight card on a Tuesday? Blasphemy.

The problem with being Dana White in 2012 is that there are thousands of people telling Dana White how to be Dana White. Audaciousness has a way of feeding on itself.

The bigger problem is that propriety isn’t something so easily introduced to a company that has been mightily successful doing things their way.

But the UFC realizes some things will have to change internally to clean up the number of fiascos going on. In fact, Dana White recently told the LA Times that Zuffa will begin testing fighters for PEDs themselves to, among other things, “save the sport.”

“Yes, we’re going to do our own testing, order these guys into [a lab]; we’re sorting it out now,” he said. “You have to do this to save the sport. You can’t have these guys fighting on this stuff.”

That’s a step, at least. At some point there will likely be other changes, things like social media protocols and consistency in punishment for offenders. In short, there will something like definitive rules. After all, the word “professional” can easily stand in for a word like “conformity.” To uphold one, there will be degrees of the other.

And that’s a delicate balance. The fight game is sort of lunatic by nature, and that’s what happily separates it from other sports. The UFC has always done a great job of this. Yet chaos is better contained in the cage. It’s too hard to push enthusiasm for a global brand forward while putting out so many fires backstage.

Yet if we can bear with the smoke a little bit, then shout it out -- it's fight week!

NEW YORK -- For as stacked as the UFC 146 card appears for Memorial Day weekend, it’s really two title fights (Urijah Faber/Dominick Cruz and Chael Sonnen/Anderson Silva) and a pack of glitzy non-consequential match-ups (Cung Le/Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin/Tito Ortiz).

Not so for New Jersey and this weekend’s free UFC on FOX 3 card. No belts will change hands, but situations are in play. Complicated situations. Theoretical ones. Titles dangling in the balance, right there for some and just out of reach for others. And there is, of course, much obfuscation.

For example: If Nate Diaz capitalizes on his broadcast television main event and downs Jim Miller, he is essentially guaranteed a title shot at 155 pounds. However, with Benson Henderson and Frankie Edgar fighting for the title in August, that shot might come in a wintry month like December. That’s a long time to wait for a guy who A.) fights for money, B.) likes fighting and C.) has a nice head of momentum. When asked if he’d wait in that situation at Thursday’s news conference, Diaz said simply, “I have a fight on Saturday.”

This drew a New York cheer. Diaz, for all his volume in punching, is a man of few words.

If Jim Miller beats Diaz, on the other hand, he isn’t guaranteed anything. Rather, he is guaranteed to be cheering for Frankie Edgar at UFC 150 when Edgar fights Henderson, because in that case Miller would potentially get to fight Edgar (his erstwhile training partner/friend).

Got it?

Here’s what Miller had to say when asked if he’s confused by Diaz getting a title shot with a win (even though he’s 3-3 in his last six lightweight bouts) while he (10-2 as a lightweight in the UFC) won’t necessarily:

“You know, honestly, it doesn’t matter to me right now. I’ve got a fight in two days, and that’s where my focus is. From doing that [10-2 record] and having that seven-win stretch and dealing with the rematches in this division, it really cemented that things change -- and things happen. So I’m not going to sit here and try and predict what’ll happen with a win or with a loss. I’m just focused on the fight itself, and after that, then it’s time to speculate about the next fight.”

If he won’t speculate, we sure will, and we’ll add a name to the mix: Anthony Pettis.

Pettis, who is a quasi-No. 1 contender, will be coming back to full health some time in the summer. Logic would say that the winner of Diaz/Miller will end up fighting Pettis to establish a true No. 1 contender, while Henderson/Edgar II plays out.

Meanwhile, the co-main event has its own wild set of conditions. Should Johny Hendricks beat Josh Koscheck, he is the No. 1 contender for a title fight. Problem is, once again, that Georges St. Pierre and Carlos Condit are likely fighting in November to settle up the permanent and interim belts. There’s no way that Hendricks will want to wait for that to play out for a spring 2013 title fight.

Yet if Koscheck wins, he will have to pull for Condit to beat St. Pierre to have a word in the title conversation.

Confused? You should be. If we learned anything from the final prefight news conference, it’s this -- the UFC doesn’t want repetition. Koscheck/St. Pierre and Henderson/Miller happened too soon ago to happen again. The UFC craves new blood.

It’s the most complicated contender-type card that ever was, and it’s going down Saturday night in New Jersey.

First UFC "super fight" in January?

In the post news conference scrum, a media member asked Dana White about a potential fight card at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, a venue which can hold 100,000 people.

White said all that flirtation about holding an event there was not only real, but is a serious possibility. He also alluded to a big January card that could potentially be so massive.

“We’re always looking for a potential big fight,” White said. “We’ve always wanted to do a fight, and we’ve been talking to [Jerry] Jones and his crew about doing a fight down in Dallas Cowboys Stadium, but we need a fight big enough to do it. The last fight that I was going to try and make there was Brock [Lesnar] and Fedor [Emelianenko].”

There is potentially a fight out there that’s big enough.

Running through the timelines of “super fight” candidates for a place like Dallas Cowboys Stadium, or a second event at the Rogers Centre in Toronto (or at the old, reliable stand-by in Las Vegas), one could envision a Jon Jones/Anderson Silva match-up at least being discussed.

Think about it. If Jones beats Dan Henderson in September, that would be four months ahead of January -- perfect for the turn around. Anderson Silva fights in July. Should be beat Chael Sonnen for his record 10th title defense, there would be only one way to raise the ante -- and it wouldn’t be to take on Mark Munoz or Hector Lombard.

It would be to fight Jones, who’d have tidied his own division up just in time. Is that what the UFC has in mind?

“I don’t know,” White said. “We’ll see what happens. We’ll see what we end up putting together.”

New York state of mind

By now, everyone knows about the MMA ban in New York, even as we make our way through open-minded 2012. This is why the UFC dangles its product just across the Hudson River -- to reinforce that all notions of “human cockfighting” are antiquated and hyperbolic. Whether the sport hasn’t been sanctioned in the Empire State is about “gangsters” in the Culinary Union (as Dana White says) or something less ominous, it depends on whom you talk to.

But when MMA does finally get legalized in New York, the UFC plans on doing it big.

“When we finally do break through and do a big event here, I think the event at Madison Square Garden that we do will be huge, and it’s be a great time to pull off a Fan Expo here in New York,” White said. “I think it would be huge.”

In the meantime, those in New York who want to catch MMA in a live setting must go underground. Or, underwater. For MMA, there’s light at the end of the Lincoln Tunnel, across the way in East Rutherford, N.J., where the UFC will once again mock New York with the one thing it doesn’t have.

With Chael Sonnen’s rematch against Anderson Silva now migrating from Brazil to Las Vegas, UFC 148 becomes the Miami Heat of fight cards. It is stacked, stuffed, loaded and insane.

And let’s face it, this annually huge Vegas card had a pot of gold drop in its lap: Sonnen/Silva II is already a big enough fight to tune in. The UFC could have booked Yoislandy Izquierdo against T.J. Grant as the co-main and things would still have been fine on July 7.

But the UFC’s July 4 weekend is all Roman candles and Saturn missiles, and it’s quickly become a countdown of matchmaking franchises. Aside from Sonnen/Silva II, there’s Urijah Faber versus Dominick Cruz III, Forrest Griffin versus Tito Ortiz II, Cung Le versus Rich Franklin I. All told, there are two belts in play, a swan song or a UFC pioneer, and a return to middleweight for the former champion Franklin, who is 100 percent guaranteed to put on a features-contorting brawl.

If that weren’t enough, Demian Maia will see how he holds up against human Velcro, Dong Hyun Kim, in his welterweight debut.

To Vegas go all the spoils.

To far off Calgary in the north, just two weeks later on July 21? Smartly, Tim Boetsch and Michael Bisping.

What was meant to happen in Vegas isn’t staying there -- Boetsch and Bisping, a big intrigue pairing of middleweights that was originally slated for UFC 148, is now headed for UFC 149 in Alberta. And this is ultimately a good move by the UFC. Why lose a contender’s type bout to a thousand bunched-up storylines at UFC 148 while peripheral PPV cards -- UFC 147 and UFC 149 -- could use the additional heft?

When the first question out of people’s mouths is nearly always “what’s next,” the guys chasing Sonnen/Silva are pretty important to the scheme of things. In the fight game we’re dealing in tapestries. The newly resurrected Tim Boetsch and the MMA’s “forever contender” Michael Bisping will get a better shake at the Saddledome behind headliners Jose Aldo and Erik Koch. Let Sonnen/Silva play out, and this fight takes on more significance. It’s our duty to talk, after all, and to invent the stakes while playing at what’s in Joe Silva’s head.

And right now, a lot of people more readily recall Boetsch losing by “Philmura” against Phil Davis instead of him storming back against Yushin Okami at UFC 144. If he’s really closing on a title shot at 185 pounds, Boetsch could use the boost of a co-main event type spotlight. Right now he’s more journeyman than contender. He’s never been the recipient of Zuffa’s marketing machine. It’s time to gussy him up.

As for Bisping? He believes the same thing he’s been believed for years -- that he’s the hands down No. 1 contender. Obviously there’s still the matter of Mark Munoz and Chris Weidman out there, but Bisping might actually be on to something this time through. With unpredictable circumstances and injuries and schedule syncing and suspensions and all the things that get in the way in obvious matchmaking, the Briton really might be next in line.

Or he might not. But that we can care sufficiently enough to find out is lucky for him and Tim Boetsch. In this rare case it’s better to jump cards than end up lost in the shuffle.

Chael Sonnen may be feeling extremely fortunate that his middleweight title fight against Anderson Silva has been moved out of Brazil, after UFC president Dana White detailed the dangers he went through just to attend a news conference. More »

Hey, remember when Jon Jones beat Rashad Evans?

In case the mega-fight slipped your mind already, which isn't altogether implausible thanks to mixed martial arts' wacky news cycle, that happened Saturday.

For instance: On Tuesday, three major pieces of information were revealed.
Anderson Silva would not defend his UFC middleweight belt in his home country of Brazil against Chael Sonnen. Instead, it was announced, the pound-for-pound king will return to sweltering Las Vegas for a mid-summer bout against the self-proclaimed king.

Heavyweight Alistair Overeem was denied licensure to fight in the state of Nevada, meaning he's yet another casualty on MMA's growing PED hit list.

And Bellator champion Hector Lombard is relinquishing that title for a chance to compete in the UFC and shut up his doubters.

Here are some quick thoughts on what went down.

Silva-Sonnen 2 heads to Las Vegas

Rather than promoting one of the most intriguing stadium shows in combat sports history, UFC president Dana White confirmed in Rio on Tuesday morning that it was going to be impossible to promote the bout as promised.

A suitable venue couldn't be locked down, even if the promoter openingly salivated not long about the possibility of his middleweights fighting in front of 80,000 fans. Hotel space was a real issue as well, with the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, a massive undertaking, was taking place at the same time.

Good news: we still get to see the fight.

Some winners and losers in all of this:

WINNERS

Zuffa

That's right. Even though they failed to deliver on the promise of a mega UFC championship fight in Brazil, the promotion comes out ahead since it won't have to cope with the logistic nightmare of competing with the Rio+20 conference. More important, a stateside Silva-Sonnen 2 fight will garner heavier media attention and potentially boost pay-per-view numbers for a card that's already stacked.

Nevada

Las Vegas needed major fights, and they just landed a marlin. UFC 148 was already stacking up as a solid offering and the addition of Silva and Sonnen to an event that featured Dominick Cruz defending his title against Urijah Faber and Tito Ortiz in a retirement bout against Forrest Griffin guarantees fans will flock to the sun-scorched city.

Sonnen

How could he not be? The challenger goes from needing to negotiate treacherous waters to remaining in the U.S., away from hostile Brazilian fans. The only stumbling block could be Sonnen's attempt to gain a therapeutic use exemption for his testosterone replacement therapy, but Nevada State Athletic Commission executive director Keith Kizer is already on record saying he doesn't believe there will be any hiccups to the licensing process.

LOSERS

Brazilian fans

This was setting up to be a mega-event for Silva's countrymen, many of whom are now understandably upset. How could they not be? They lost the chance to watch arguably the best mixed martial artist of all time fight in a packed soccer stadium against the closest thing he has to an arch rival. By extension: Any MMA fan wanted to witness this spectacle.

Silva

It won't impact his performance in the fight, but, presuming he wins, moving the bout from Rio to Vegas certainly does dampen Silva's burgeoning stardom in Brazil. This was an unprecedented opportunity to shine in front of a nation that will soon host the Olympics and World Cup.

Nevada denies Overeem

The layers run thick but it boils down to this:

Alistair Overeem visited a doctor he claimed to know nothing about, allowed himself to be injected with something he claimed ignorance of, and subsequently tested positive for elevated levels of testosterone.

There is no one to blame but himself. Go ahead and point fingers at Dallas-based Dr. Hector Oscar Molina if you want. He is not above reproach here, obviously, but he also didn't force himself on Overeem.

For losing out on a UFC title fight against Junior dos Santos next month. For seeking treatment from Dallas-based Dr. Molina, who admitted to mixing a water-based testosterone cocktail for the Greek statue of a heavyweight he claimed was designed to treat a rib injury. For taking one injection. And then another. For such willful ignorance, especially when he owed Nevada two tests at a time and place of their choosing.

In a way, don't you hope Overeem attempted to cheat the system? I mean, at this stage of the game, it's basically expected and would at least provide an explanation for this mess. Otherwise, the alternative is to believe Overeem is oblivious and stupid.

Lombard leaves, Bellator show's hand

Put up or shut up time for Hector Lombard.

Finally.

After Bjorn Rebney and his partners decided against matching an offer sheet from the UFC for the Cuban's services, the now-former Bellator middleweight champion will get every chance he deserves to prove he's the world's best middleweight.

I have my doubts he'll make much of a dent against the type of competition he's soon to face. Is Lombard (31-2-1) better than Rousimar Palhares or Alan Belcher, who fight May 5 on FOX? I don't think so. But this is the great part: We don't have to "think" about it anymore; let the speculation end.

Bellator's choice is worth dissecting because it says something about the way they're conducting business, and could foretell Eddie Alvarez's chances of remaining with the promotion four months from now.

Bellator essentially would have been forced into the pay-per-view business had they matched the UFC's offer for Lombard. That's a huge advantage Zuffa owns over its potential competitors, because no one other than the Las Vegas-based juggernaut can seemingly compel consumers to buy a fight. Bellator hasn't even tried, though they may at some point.

If not, Zuffa will just poach away fighters they want, like Alvarez, and there's not much Rebney will be able to do about it.

There’s a danger in thinking out loud. And, at this point the UFC must realize this better than anybody.

For the past couple of months, Chael Sonnen was assuredly fighting Anderson Silva in Silva’s native Brazil, and the only thing left was to sort out the nagging details. Those details finally got in the way, and now the fight is headed for Las Vegas, which is a bit of crushing news for romantics.

Yet when you think about it, didn’t this thing always feel too good, too tantalizingly ominous to be true? The brazen American getting dropped into hostile territory in an attempt to take the belt from the company’s best-ever fighter? This was dramatic overload. It was the “Rumble in the Jungle” -- only it wouldn’t be held at a neutral site. This was Sonnen being lowered into a burbling cauldron. It was the odds being stacked so impossibly against him that the situation shared more in common with movies than reality (think “Rocky IV”).

And from the American perspective, the sweeteners were Sonnen’s motormouth in conjunction with the immensity of the setting. The event was targeted for Rio de Janeiro's Joao Havelange Stadium -- a.k.a. Engenhao -- which could feasibly hold a record number of people (between 60,000-80,000).

Sonnen was played up to be the man of risks -- the security risk with an overnight bag of asterisks. Bold enough to walk the plank. Silva was to be the deliverer of comeuppance. The rectifier. Fighting in Brazil for Brazil.

For the sport of MMA, it was history in the making, in a setting as big as their rivalry.

Only it didn’t get entirely made. The rematch is officially happening on July 7 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, the “fight capital of Earth” as Sonnen says. Another way of looking at it is like this: Sonnen/Silva II is happening in a common setting on a big weekend of fights.

In a news conference yesterday from Rio de Janeiro, Dana White broke the news of the switch and explained the problems they had in securing a venue in Brazil. White, Silva and Sonnen showed up in person first and foremost to apologize, and second to redirect hype.

No doubt this whole thing is a bummer for the UFC, who sensed the historical value we’re talking about.

It’s disappointing to Calgary, the Canadian city that is likely losing featherweight champion Jose Aldo to fill the void at UFC 147.

It’s disappointing for Silva, who has fought an 11 times in the States, once in Canada, once in Abu Dhabi and once in Rio as a UFC employee. He is 14-0 in those fights, which means he doesn’t exactly have any big druthers. But his fifteenth fight -- and remember, every fight these days could be his last -- was meant to be epic. It was meant to shatter the UFC 129 attendance record -- in his native country.

None of that will happen now.

The good news is the fight is booked -- that’s the practical thing to remember. UFC 148 now looks like the most loaded card of the year, a card the promoters could easily dub as “Rivals” with all the continuations in play -- Sonnen/Silva II, Urijah Faber/Dominick Cruz III, Tito Ortiz/Forrest Griffin III. It’s a lot of sequels and trilogies in a city where whatever happens is meant to stay there. And that’s a little salt on the wound to Brazilians and romantics and any fan of "Mission: Impossible."

Yet plenty of people will like this switch. There’s a lot of foot traffic in Vegas come Memorial Day weekend, and this fight becomes accessible. The American media will rejoice because now they can attend without having to secure visas. This thing becomes a lot more convenient to cover.

But we weren’t dealing in conveniences; we were dealing in historic backdrops. We were dealing in extreme inconveniences, which is exactly why Sonnen-Silva II in Brazil was so alluring. The “Rumble in the Jungle” wouldn’t have been nearly as compelling as the “Fracas in Las Vegas.”

And it’s disappointing to wave good-bye to what could have been, especially knowing the magnitude of the thing that nearly was.

Randy Couture is convinced an out-and-out striker will never beat UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones, predicting that the likes of Dan Henderson or Chael Sonnen are the men to dethrone the 205-pound king. More »

It’s been six weeks between Zuffa events; plenty of time to contemplate Marlon Sandro decked out as the Bellator icon. And if there’s ever been a six-week span where so much wonderment has gone into the amount of testosterone found in horse filets, I’d like to hear about it.

But beginning Saturday in Stockholm, the UFC gets back to its furious pace. Over the next several weeks, there will be UFCs to keep us busy, all of them stubbornly numbered in pay-per-views, in FOX, FX and Fuel shows -- not to mention the occasional Strikeforce event. As such there will be a lot of debuts from guys like Yoislandy Izquierdo and Sweden’s own Magnus Cedenblad. The producers of Starz’s Spartacus could never have invented such fitting names for its crop of warriors.

Here’s a look at five things to keep an eye out for at UFC on Fuel TV 2, and some storylines that might (or might not) be of immense interest to you.

Gustafsson’s handling of the spotlight

It’s not only a homecoming for Alexander Gustafsson, but it’s his first main event on a card specifically designed with him in mind. And it’s his first time fighting as a true cusp contender from both a marketing standpoint as well as from the general notion that he’s part of what’s left out there for Jon Jones at 205 pounds. That’s a lot of pressure for the 25-year-old from Arboga, Sweden. But it’s the kind of pressure that comes with sustained success in a league founded more or less on attrition.

Gustafsson will be fighting Thiago Silva, who was originally supposed to be Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Which is the more imposing foe? Probably Silva, who has only lost twice in his career, and each of those were against former champions (Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida). Silva would be a huge notch for Gustafsson, enough of one to rev up the title talk. And coming in, it’s hard to find much wrong in the Swede’s game since losing to Phil Davis at UFC 112. It’s not that he beat four guys in a row, but he finished them all, twice by TKO (Vladimir Matyushenko and Matt Hamill), and twice by rear-naked chokes (James Te Huna and Cyrille Diabate).

If he adds Silva to that casualty list, it means the “Mauler” has truly arrived.

Silva’s potential ring rust and mental state

In a time when commission findings get more headlines than the fighters themselves, we must remember that Thiago Silva was the original bizarre. After his UFC 125 drubbing of Brandon Vera, the Nevada State Athletic Commission suspended Silva when it was discovered that his prefight urine sample turned up “inconsistent with human urine.” He tried to mask banned substances by submitting urine that he ordered online. This didn’t work out. To his credit, Silva admitted right away to his course of folly and took his punishment, which included a yearlong suspension.

Well, it’s been 16 months since the Vera fight, and through a beneficial set of circumstances he ends up in a main event. The UFC tried to set up a rematch with Vera. When Vera was a no-go, the UFC tried to stick Silva in there against a tough but not-so-glamorous Igor Pokrajac. Then they needed a viable opponent for Gustafsson when Lil Nog went down. Enter Silva, who is still a top-10 light heavy in the UFC. Yet you have to wonder if the time away from the cage, the mental taxation, the travel, the fact that he’s fighting a rising star in a rising star’s homeland, and the oppositional musical chairs will hinder him in some way.

If none of that matters, it means Silva right where he left off before those ongoing back issues led to some monstrously bad decision-making.

Dennis Siver as a featherweight

He was no slouch as a lightweight, but German fighter Dennis Siver wanted to try his hand as a 145-pounder after losing his footing in the 155-pound title race to Donald Cerrone. His first opponent as a feather? Diego Nunes. And if you remember, when Kenny Florian made his much-ballyhooed drop to 145 pounds, he was greeted by Nunes in his new weight class, too.

As a symbol, Nunes has helped more people lose weight than trainer Mike Dolce.

How will the weight cut play a role for Siver? It remains to be seen, but the kickboxer was knocking off some pretty tough guys as a smallish 155er -- guys like Matt Wiman, Spencer Fisher and George Sotiropoulos. In other words, he’s a wily vet.

Brian Stann getting his brawl back on

The bane of Brian Stann’s existence so far as a professional mixed martial artist is wrestling. He was dominated on the ground by Phil Davis and, after dropping down to 185 pounds, ran into Chael Sonnen at UFC 136 and suffered the same fate. It’s been a long six months since then.

Yet lucky for Stann, Alessio Sakara -- the free-swinging Legionarius -- would just assume gather up all the singlets and have a bonfire. He was recently outwrestled by Chris Weidman, and it left a bad taste in his mouth for no other reason than it wasn’t his kind of fight. That is to say, it wasn’t a brawl. In fact, going back to his 2006 bout with Drew McFedries, any Sakara fight in which there was a finish has always come by KO or TKO. He was on the wrong end of those nearly as often as he wasn’t.

Think this thing is tailor-made for Stann? Could be. But there are plenty of people in Italy thinking the exact same for Sakara.

Damacio Page on the plank
This might be the fight of the night -- two tightly wound bantamweights coming off of losses, each of whom brings it every time. Between Brad Pickett and Damacio Page, Page is the one on the slipperier slope, having lost back-to-back fights to Brian Bowles and Demetrious Johnson. In both of those he was choked out via guillotine.

That’s not likely to happen against Pickett, whose nickname is “One Punch.” If Page loses here, it’ll likely be by decision or because he got caught. With Greg Jackson in his corner and some intangibles (read: survival mode), it might set up a perfect storm to revisit the Page of 2009, the one who fought a grand total of 1 minutes, 20 seconds in finishing off Will Campuzano (via rear-naked choke) and Marcos Galvao (via punches).

Either way, this looks like the great unsung fight that could steal the show.

Brad Pickett maintains his confidence that all of England should believe in Michael Bisping's UFC title bid, claiming the Brit is better suited to challenge Anderson Silva than Chael Sonnen. More »

No one handled Anderson Silva the way Chael Sonnen did.

So, heading into their eagerly awaited rematch this summer, conventional wisdom holds the American wrestler again should own large portions of the fight. And, if he simply avoids making one big mistake, Sonnen will become the first man since 2004 to legitimately defeat the reigning UFC champion.

I'm not in that group. In fact, I'd argue the way things are set up, Sonnen seems headed for a big fall in front of tens of thousands of people who surely despise him.

Here are five reasons, one for each enthralling round the middleweights fought in 2010, why "The Spider" will cement his legacy as the best mixed martial artist yet by defeating his nemesis on a grand stage.

The ambush factor

What could Sonnen possibly do to Silva that he didn't two years ago?

OK, yes, not tap to a triangle. But in relation to offense and pressure and pace, Sonnen was simply brilliant. Silva, meanwhile, was near his worst and the UFC champion still endured during the final throes of their epic encounter.

The most unique element of the fight was the ambush factor. Sonnen, everyone accepted, was tough. Limited, perhaps, especially compared to Silva's multi-layered game, but he was good at what he did. And then he walked directly at Silva and slammed a punch into the Brazilian's mouth.

No one expected Sonnen would show up to fight in Oakland on Aug. 7, 2010, the way he did.

Silva had not been tested since early 2008, when Dan Henderson made him fight for just over a round. Following that it was walkover bouts and embarrassing displays manifesting out of sheer boredom.

Unlike James Irvin, Patrick Cote, Thales Leites, Forrest Griffin and Demian Maia, Chael Sonnen was not frightened by the site of the man standing in front of him. He started fast, put Silva on the defensive -- a neat trick few -- and rolled like a tank for 20-plus minutes.

Sonnen has no reason to be frightened standing in front of Silva in Rio, but at least the UFC champion knows what's coming this time. Silva understands that Sonnen can box. And Sonnen can take him down. But he also knows that Sonnen's top game, for all the staggering punch-output totals, didn't damage him.

Sonnen's effort in 2010 will bring out Silva's best in 2012. That signals trouble for the challenger.

Silva's health

Silva fights like a poet writes, unless he's hampered by bad ribs. Lest we forget, Silva wasn't near 100 percent heading into the contest in Oakland. Assuming this isn't the case when they meet in Brazil, that's a huge boost to Silva. The man relies on movement. Everything flows though his feet. Take that away from him and he's a shell of himself.

Sonnen clearly deserves credit for his forward momentum throughout the fight, but I'm not buying his ability to do it again against a primed up Spider.

Home cooking

Sometimes it helps, sometimes it hurts.

I'd suggest to you that walking into a stadium holding upwards of 80,000 of his loyal countrymen will be a tremendous motivation for Silva.

What effect will the surroundings hold over Sonnen? I don't know. I hope the challenger isn't spooked by the scene, which could greet him much like Brazil's favelas welcomed BOPE.

Silva has accomplished tremendous things in MMA. Beating his loud rival in a soccer stadium in Rio as his country eagerly watched: that's storybook stuff. I just can't envision it going the other way for him.

Silva is better

That said, It's not like I'm looking through a crystal ball here. Newsflash, I can't tell the future. The closest any of us can get is by peering into the past, and Silva's is a thing of beauty.

In his two fights since struggling against Sonnen, Silva scored one of the most impressive knockouts of his career against Vitor Belfort, and absolutely mangled the usually steady Yushin Okami. He's as sharp as he ever was.

Sonnen bounced back from the Silva stunner to manhandle Brian Stann and, earlier this year, squeak past Michael Bisping.

Making arguments like "Silva is better" seems obvious and lazy. But sometimes obvious things need to be highlighted. Quite often, the obvious things tell us most about a person. And yet we tend to gloss over them, searching instead for small details that might or might not matter.

Silva is a better mixed martial artist than Sonnen. It's that simple.

One moment in time

Can Sonnen win when everything is riding on the outcome? We know Silva can. Sonnen, though, has yet to prove he's capable of doing the same.

The 34-year-old Oregonian won many competitions throughout his life -- just not the biggest. One failing of focus, judgement or technique is all it takes to lose at his level. A mistake against Silva when he was otherwise perfect cost Sonnen a UFC championship.

So, will Sonnen fight a mistake-free bout against a man he can't afford to make a mistake against?

I don't think so.

If Anderson Silva doesn’t win his fifteenth straight UFC fight, that means hell will have descended on Rio. That means the man in a foreign land, Chael Sonnen, went into Brazil and wrested the most elusive belt from the company’s most dominant champion.

How’s that for ultimate audacity?

Sonnen/Silva II is almost certain to be held in a Rio de Janeiro soccer stadium that holds somewhere in the range of 60,000-80,000 people.

Having seen firsthand the firestorm atmosphere of UFC 134, I have to think that the tension will be tripled in the larger confines. Partisan? That word fails to capture the loyalty and fervor that the Brazilian crowd exhibits for their own. It will be a high noon gathering of zealots, straining against their civil moorings. The reason? The American Sonnen will be dropped into the center of a cauldron that he alone helped heat to a burble.

This will be his comeuppance.

Or it will be something slightly more unfathomable. It could be the red, white and blue wrestler, Sonnen, getting fitted into a belt that has for so long belonged to MMA’s most lasting force. Either way, the scene at UFC 147 will be teetering on the brink of something -- celebration, outrage, relief, finality, disbelief. It’s the kind of scene that builds legend in a sport that could desperately use it.

And for this reason alone, it becomes the most dramatic event in MMA history. Think about it: Silva facing his only known rival in front of his countrymen. Sonnen, a journeyman-turned-star in his 30s, the interloper. Sonnen, the biggest threat Silva has known, his potential antidote. The bane of his existence.

Silva, the forever enigma. Possibly solved. Or order is restored, and he's once again triumphant.

It might be hyperbole to start comparing the outdoor fight to the “Thrilla in Manila” or Ali-Liston II or the “Rumble in the Jungle,” but maybe only narrowly. Who knows if in 40 years we’ll be talking about Silva/Sonnen II?

But as of 2012, it looks like the biggest fight in MMA history, with context filling in every corner. Their first fight, at UFC 117 in August 2010, was so one-sided as to become surreal for nine-tenths of the bout. Then came the late submission that has made Sonnen the butt of geometry jokes worldwide. Once again it’s Sonnen’s dogged wrestling against Silva’s violent grace. What buildup awaits. Sonnen knows what to do with a microphone, just like Ali did -- and he has his own parcel of scandals, too. In a bargain bin way, testosterone replacement therapy is Sonnen’s "Vietnam" references. Ali lived in turbulent political times. Sonnen is a politician (as well as real estate agent and author) with an uninspiring overall record.

Somehow, here we are.

Yet the better musical notes are just underneath. Don't underestimate how badly other countries want to score a win over Americans. We see this wherever the octagon goes, whether it's Brazil, England, Canada, wherever. The more benign the people, the more the situation intensifies. At UFC 129, there were 55,724 people at the Rogers Centre in Toronto letting up a deafening roar for Georges St. Pierre, their champion ... with an equally heated and communal display of disapproval for Jake Shields (possibly the most inoffensive American going).

It's real. Sonnen is everything that people dislike in Americans, even if he's the most exaggerated sample of perceived arrogance we have.

After all the talk, it's time that center stage becomes his ledge. He alone walks it.


Put all together, it’s a fantastic clash of elements for a mixed martial arts event. Whether the card is held at the Estadio Olimpico Joao Havelange (a.k.a Engenhao, which can hold generously around 60,000 people) or the better-known Maracana (which is being renovated, and can hold up to 80,000), it doesn’t matter. The house will come down figuratively either way. For those who like to fling the word “epic” around loosely, here’s a chance for the adjective to stick.

Silva/Sonnen II is an epic event.

Or maybe it’s more like this: What’s epic is the fact that it’s actually happening in such a setting.

UFC veteran Dan Henderson insists the middleweight title is not high on his list of priorities, regardless of what president Dana White tells the media. More »

Chael Sonnen has labeled Quinton "Rampage" Jackson a "crybaby" after the former UFC light heavyweight champion accused the UFC of giving him difficult fights. More »

According to UFC president Dana White, Dan Henderson would fight any man in the world -- including Chael Sonnen -- as long as a UFC title was on the line. More »

The UFC’s flyweight division was exactly one fight old when things went haywire at the top.

That’s so 2012 in the UFC. When title belts are in play, all paths look more like construction zones with detours.

This time, Ian McCall appeared as if he’d won a back-and-forth fight to advance in the shudder-speed flyweight tournament. Then the scorecards were read and it was actually Demetrious Johnson who won a majority decision, turning "Uncle Creepy’s" maestro swagger off as fast as it came on.

His depression didn’t last long.

To the chagrin of flyweight matchmaker Sean Shelby, who was in Columbus for Strikeforce some 10,000 miles away, the Australian athletic commission miscalculated the scorecards on McCall/Johnson. The result should have been a majority draw, and somewhere in the bowels of Allphones Arena in Sydney they informed Dana White, whose only response could be the obligatory tirade of profanity. They weren’t. And the disheartening thing for the UFC was that this was an eventuality it had prepared for by introducing a sudden victory round -- à la "The Ultimate Fighter" format -- to resolve any draws at the end.

But there’s no accounting for human error, and nothing much can be done in that situation except adopt the common shoulder-shrugger’s refrain: it is what it is.

Now Joseph Benavidez -- who TKO’d Yasuhiro Urushitani -- will wait for a rematch that most will be stoked to see and yet shouldn’t have to see. Flies in the Vaseline, they are. Sadly, the UFC’s newest division adds to the already algebraic complications going on with the UFC’s title pictures.

Go back a week and start there. Benson Henderson defeated Frankie Edgar at UFC 144 in a close fight to take home the lightweight strap. Seeing that it was a close fight, one that could be interpreted either way, Edgar asked for an immediate rematch. Problem is that Anthony Pettis, who knocked out Joe Lauzon the same night, wants his shot at the belt, too. He was the last man to defeat Henderson, and was at one point the solid No. 1 contender (a position he fancies himself in again). Jim Miller and Nate Diaz are operating with the understanding (delusion?) that their May 5 fight in New Jersey is a title eliminator.

It’s complicated.

Of everyone, Edgar is the unignorable here. The UFC wants him to challenge Jose Aldo for the featherweight belt, but Edgar doesn’t want to. He rematched B.J. Penn and Gray Maynard without quibbling, and he wants some return love. It’s hard to argue. Before his fight with Henderson, the UFC romanticized Edgar as a Rocky-esque figure in the hype process. Yet not even Rocky was Rocky coming off of wins. He was Rocky because of how he responded to losses. First with Apollo Creed, then with Clubber Lang. And later, after losing the vainglorious Creed to a killing machine from Russia, against Ivan Drago.

How can the UFC draw upon a man’s heart and not give him the chance to show its full dimensions? Having lost to the bigger, stronger Henderson sets the table for a truer representation of his nonfictional Rocky story.

As an extension of the uncertainty at 155 pounds and Edgar, the featherweight division is in limbo. What next for Aldo? Then you glance at the welterweight title picture, and that's way out of focus. Georges St. Pierre is recovering from ACL surgery, and is either way ahead of schedule or possibly right on schedule or something else. He is tentatively looking at a November return. Interim titleholder Carlos Condit is waiting to see something definitive in that timetable before deciding what to do next. Jake Ellenberger is waiting to see what Condit does, and now so is Martin Kampmann (the last man to defeat Condit). It’s possible we don’t see an “actual” title defense at 170 pounds this year.

By slotting Dominick Cruz against Urijah Faber as the coaches on "The Ultimate Fighter" Season 15, that means Cruz won’t defend his bantamweight belt until the summer. And that means any challengers beyond Faber -- guys like super-sensation Renan Barao -- are out of luck until winter.

As for middleweights, Anderson Silva is finally going to fight again in June after recovering from bursitis in his shoulder. There’s a chance we see just one middleweight title fight in 2012.

With eight weight divisions, and a conservative average of two fights per year, there should be in the neighborhood of 16 title fights. That won’t be the case in 2012. There might be 10, if we're lucky.

Can you imagine if Jon Jones had made good on his request to take a few months off? Light heavyweight is the closest the UFC has to a normally functioning division right now. And it looks like Junior dos Santos is ready to go, if Alistair Overeem can avoid injuries and conflicts beforehand.

Otherwise, title fights are scarce to come by this year. Which means we’ll be watching a lot more PFC (Penultimate Fighting Championship) than UFC (the Ultimate variety).