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UFC president Dana White has made his first comments in public since Jon Jones' arrest for allegedly driving while intoxicated on May 19, and the pair were due to meet in Las Vegas on Tuesday evening. More »

In the UFC, the latest winner will always have the most compelling case. That’s the nature of hype, and hype has always been the game. More specifically, hype is the essence that drives the thing forward.

By know everybody knows this. And if they don’t, they should pay attention to Donald Cerrone.

Last week Nate Diaz beat Jim Miller to claim the disputed top contender seed behind titleholder Benson Henderson and challenger Frankie Edgar. On Tuesday, Cerrone beat Jeremy Stephens for three loud rounds only to make his case even louder in the aftermath: He’d like a fight in Denver at UFC 150, against anybody, but preferably against Nate Diaz, who put a surgical beatdown on him in December.

This was of course fishing on “Cowboy’s” part.

Cerrone knows the likelihood of the UFC granting a rematch of a one-sided fight that happened only a few months ago isn’t great. Having thought of that, he made another point clear: That he wasn’t himself that night in December. With that being his fifth fight in 2011, he was just an old husk, not the full ear of corn. Besides, he fought a dumb fight. Just too stubborn.

Now, the Donald Cerrone that methodically picked apart Jeremy Stephens -- that was the genuine article. That’s the one who would threaten Diaz’s bearings if the UFC would give him the chance.

Cowboy was just planting seeds. He knows he has a point. He was smart enough to make his point while momentum was on his side, having just beat Stephens impressively. Forget that Stephens isn’t a top ten lightweight, in the 155-pound division jockeying for position is mandatory. On UFC on Fuel’s post-fight show, Chael Sonnen said he’d like to see Cerrone catapulted into a title shot right away. That’s how swift the tide rolls back in for the latest victors.

Problem is, there will be others soon enough, and they will have arguments of merit and timing and will carry updated casualty lists.

So, just where do things stand in the UFC’s lightweight division? Because on June 22 in Atlantic City, N.J., Clay Guida and Gray Maynard -- two perennial contenders -- would like to know. The winner of that fight then becomes the day’s fresh case-maker. To help promote that fight, we’re sure to hear about the winner being in the proverbial title mix. We’ll hear each guy make his case for it, too.

At this point it might be easier to hold a raffle for the next lightweight title shot, provided that Diaz has the most tickets in the bowl. There are so many deserving fighters hovering near the top.

Was Cerrone overshooting to throw Diaz’s name out there? No. His aim was just right. Maybe his doing that gets Diaz’s blood boiling enough to call matchmaker Joe Silva to book it. And why not? Over the course of years, the UFC has been good about listening to those audacious enough to call their own shots. If Cerrone’s not given Diaz, he’ll likely get one of the scintillating young stars like Edson Barboza -- should he get by Jamie Varner at UFC 146 next week -- or Anthony Pettis. Pettis has been dog-eared for that title shot since downing Joe Lauzon at UFC 144 with that head kick. He’s the forever No. 1 contender B.

Where does the winner of Maynard/Guida factor in? What about if/when Eddie Alvarez makes his way into the UFC’s 155-pound cluster? It all depends on the what/when/where at lightweight. Who went last, who did what, who got the last word.

But if you can’t pass half a dozen contenders in one swoop, call out the guy at the front whom you suspect isn’t cut out for idling for months on end. Call out Diaz in a rematch, the guy who displaced you. And if that can’t be arranged, settle for a top-five fight in your hometown of Denver. That’s how you handle things coming off a dominant victory over a career .500 UFC fighter like Stephens.

Ask for it all, and settle for something far better than you might deserve.

There are at least two kinds of greatness in MMA. Greatness that’s current (like Jon Jones), and greatness that’s always been (like Dan Henderson). In a world of immediacy, we warm our hands more quickly to the former.

Henderson now knows the date for his title challenge with Jones, and that’ll be Sept. 1 in Las Vegas. He will celebrate his 42nd birthday just a week prior to the fight. In 1987, Jones was being introduced to onesies while Henderson was reciting lines from “Vision Quest” and winning state wrestling championships at Victor Valley High School in California. The vegetation on his ears is older than Jones.

If nothing else, Hendo definitely has the experience edge over the UFC’s current light heavyweight champion. He’s been at it a long, long time. Yet the books opened in Las Vegas with Jones installed as a 6-to-1 favorite for this UFC 151 clash. The 24-year old Jones would be a huge favorite over anybody in the 205-pound division, so nothing peculiar there. There’s no such thing as even money bet with Jones in 2012, unless he borrowed from Anderson Silva’s flight of fancy and fought his clone. (Ahem).

Yet what is interesting all these months ahead of the fight is that so many people consider it a foregone conclusion that the prodigy will smash the old ax grinder. In fact, the thing is being discussed as inevitable. Forget about odds, Henderson has no shot.

In a game that deals in shaping perception, this becomes the UFC’s task to mend for no other reason than this: it’s hard to generate buzz on a perfunctory matter. Between now and late summer the idea needs to be that Henderson does have a shot. This of course would be best sold as something believable.

And realistically -- why should that be such a tough sell?

Surely over the course of winning simultaneous titles in Pride FC and later taking the 205-pound belt in Strikeforce there should be some love for Henderson here. His list of casualties in the UFC, Pride and Strikeforce -- pan-divisional -- is next to impossible. He was wrecking guys like Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Vitor Belfort and Wanderlei Silva during their heydays.

As for his own prime? It’s apparently a dozen-year venture. Henderson knocked out Michael Bisping with that anvil right at UFC 100. Since then he finished Renato Sobral, Rafael Cavalcante and Fedor Emelianenko, and he decisioned Mauricio Rua at UFC 139. He did these things in his late-30s and early-40s. These are feats that, if lost on the media, aren’t necessarily lost on his peers.

Last week on MMA Live, Jorge Rivera had Henderson in his top five pound-for-pound fighters. Daniel Cormier told MMA:30 that he “should be mentioned as one of the greatest fighters of all-time, if not the greatest fighter of all-time, but he’s missing that UFC title. He has to be a UFC champion. I think if he is, Dan Henderson will universally be considered the best fighter of all-time.”

To be considered anywhere near the greatest of all time you’d have to believe Henderson has more than a puncher’s chance to beat the greatest of right now. Yes, Jones’ landslide run through the division trumps Henderson’s legacy in forecasting how things will play out. If Shogun, Quinton Jackson, Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans failed to make Jones appear even remotely vincible, what makes Henderson any different? Nothing, it seems.

Jones is not only destroying opponents, but also our sense of imagination.

Yet the other reason that Henderson is unsung goes back to what Cormier was touching on -- he has been decorated as this sort of fugitive champion in other organizations, but not the one that we store greatness by. He hasn’t made it to the top of any weight class in the UFC.

And at 42 years old -- or any age, really -- Jones looks like a pretty imposing hurdle to get there. Imposing, that is, not unclearable. Henderson’s a guy that fights in squalls and yet has remained a lesson in perseverance for more than a decade. He has a chin, and what he gives up size he makes up for it in leverage, a tangible from his Greco-Roman days. And he has that “H-Bomb” right hand. He’s smart on how and when to deploy it.

Does all of that make for a competitive fight with Jones? Not necessarily. It still feels like a reach, as it will continue to feel until Jones is downsized into something human.

Yet given how long Henderson has sustained his own brand of greatness, it doesn’t feel like a given he’ll lose, either.

We've already noted that Dominick Cruz was the only guy to truly capitalize on the new live format of "The Ultimate Fighter" this season. Now, it appears he could become a test case for how the show responds to real, actual drama.

UFC President Dana White confirmed via Twitter on Monday afternoon that the reigning bantamweight champion suffered a torn ACL while filming “TUF Live.” The obvious result is, Cruz’s upcoming grudge match against opposing coach Urijah Faber is off the UFC 148 card and the future of the 135 pound title, the division’s first real rivalry and perhaps even Cruz’s gig on the show are all in doubt.

So, yeah, pretty much the biggest bummer imaginable for TUF’s first run on FX, which was already fetching disappointing ratings.

“Sorry to all the fans out there!” Cruz tweeted after news of his injury broke. “I WILL recover and I WILL be back to put on a show!”

If there’s any upside at all to this, it’s that now we might get to see how “TUF Live” responds to genuine adversity.

The cancellation of Cruz-Faber marks the third time in the show’s last five seasons that some calamity has befallen a proposed fight between the coaches, but Cruz is the first coach to suffer a major injury during filming. Given this season’s revamped format -- episodes are shot during the week, edited, then aired on Friday along with a live contestant fight -- that could make this week’s installment the most interesting episode of “The Ultimate Fighter” in quite some time. Maybe ever.

If Cruz’s injury occurred at the TUF training center, if footage exists of it, we’ll all be curious to see how showrunners decide to play it. Considering the high probability that a Cruz injury would also throw the show and the UFC’s planning into utter chaos behind-the-scenes, let’s hope they give us a quality dose of that action as well.

The smartest way for the show to handle the situation would be to show the impact of Cruz’s injury not only on the fighter himself, the TUF contestants and his prospective opponent, but to also show how matchmakers and UFC brass respond to it. Show us the discussions of what to do with Cruz’s coaching spot. Show us the efforts to find a replacement for him to fight Faber and UFC 148.

There is already talk of setting Faber up with an interim title bout against Renan Barao, who was scheduled to take on Ivan Menjivar on the UFC 148 preliminaries anyway. A majority of MMA fans probably think that’s the right thing to do -- best that the fledgling bantamweight division avoids delays and stagnation at all costs -- but it’d be interesting to see footage of how the UFC eventually comes around to the decision of how to handle this unfortunate situation.

That would necessarily give this episode of "TUF Live" a different feel and would be appointment viewing for most MMA fans. It might also give the show the kind of ratings boost it’s been looking for all along.

UFC president Dana White has vowed to stand by Ross Pearson following the Brit's arrest on the suspicion of driving under the influence. More »

NEW YORK -- For as stacked as the UFC 146 card appears for Memorial Day weekend, it’s really two title fights (Urijah Faber/Dominick Cruz and Chael Sonnen/Anderson Silva) and a pack of glitzy non-consequential match-ups (Cung Le/Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin/Tito Ortiz).

Not so for New Jersey and this weekend’s free UFC on FOX 3 card. No belts will change hands, but situations are in play. Complicated situations. Theoretical ones. Titles dangling in the balance, right there for some and just out of reach for others. And there is, of course, much obfuscation.

For example: If Nate Diaz capitalizes on his broadcast television main event and downs Jim Miller, he is essentially guaranteed a title shot at 155 pounds. However, with Benson Henderson and Frankie Edgar fighting for the title in August, that shot might come in a wintry month like December. That’s a long time to wait for a guy who A.) fights for money, B.) likes fighting and C.) has a nice head of momentum. When asked if he’d wait in that situation at Thursday’s news conference, Diaz said simply, “I have a fight on Saturday.”

This drew a New York cheer. Diaz, for all his volume in punching, is a man of few words.

If Jim Miller beats Diaz, on the other hand, he isn’t guaranteed anything. Rather, he is guaranteed to be cheering for Frankie Edgar at UFC 150 when Edgar fights Henderson, because in that case Miller would potentially get to fight Edgar (his erstwhile training partner/friend).

Got it?

Here’s what Miller had to say when asked if he’s confused by Diaz getting a title shot with a win (even though he’s 3-3 in his last six lightweight bouts) while he (10-2 as a lightweight in the UFC) won’t necessarily:

“You know, honestly, it doesn’t matter to me right now. I’ve got a fight in two days, and that’s where my focus is. From doing that [10-2 record] and having that seven-win stretch and dealing with the rematches in this division, it really cemented that things change -- and things happen. So I’m not going to sit here and try and predict what’ll happen with a win or with a loss. I’m just focused on the fight itself, and after that, then it’s time to speculate about the next fight.”

If he won’t speculate, we sure will, and we’ll add a name to the mix: Anthony Pettis.

Pettis, who is a quasi-No. 1 contender, will be coming back to full health some time in the summer. Logic would say that the winner of Diaz/Miller will end up fighting Pettis to establish a true No. 1 contender, while Henderson/Edgar II plays out.

Meanwhile, the co-main event has its own wild set of conditions. Should Johny Hendricks beat Josh Koscheck, he is the No. 1 contender for a title fight. Problem is, once again, that Georges St. Pierre and Carlos Condit are likely fighting in November to settle up the permanent and interim belts. There’s no way that Hendricks will want to wait for that to play out for a spring 2013 title fight.

Yet if Koscheck wins, he will have to pull for Condit to beat St. Pierre to have a word in the title conversation.

Confused? You should be. If we learned anything from the final prefight news conference, it’s this -- the UFC doesn’t want repetition. Koscheck/St. Pierre and Henderson/Miller happened too soon ago to happen again. The UFC craves new blood.

It’s the most complicated contender-type card that ever was, and it’s going down Saturday night in New Jersey.

First UFC "super fight" in January?

In the post news conference scrum, a media member asked Dana White about a potential fight card at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, a venue which can hold 100,000 people.

White said all that flirtation about holding an event there was not only real, but is a serious possibility. He also alluded to a big January card that could potentially be so massive.

“We’re always looking for a potential big fight,” White said. “We’ve always wanted to do a fight, and we’ve been talking to [Jerry] Jones and his crew about doing a fight down in Dallas Cowboys Stadium, but we need a fight big enough to do it. The last fight that I was going to try and make there was Brock [Lesnar] and Fedor [Emelianenko].”

There is potentially a fight out there that’s big enough.

Running through the timelines of “super fight” candidates for a place like Dallas Cowboys Stadium, or a second event at the Rogers Centre in Toronto (or at the old, reliable stand-by in Las Vegas), one could envision a Jon Jones/Anderson Silva match-up at least being discussed.

Think about it. If Jones beats Dan Henderson in September, that would be four months ahead of January -- perfect for the turn around. Anderson Silva fights in July. Should be beat Chael Sonnen for his record 10th title defense, there would be only one way to raise the ante -- and it wouldn’t be to take on Mark Munoz or Hector Lombard.

It would be to fight Jones, who’d have tidied his own division up just in time. Is that what the UFC has in mind?

“I don’t know,” White said. “We’ll see what happens. We’ll see what we end up putting together.”

New York state of mind

By now, everyone knows about the MMA ban in New York, even as we make our way through open-minded 2012. This is why the UFC dangles its product just across the Hudson River -- to reinforce that all notions of “human cockfighting” are antiquated and hyperbolic. Whether the sport hasn’t been sanctioned in the Empire State is about “gangsters” in the Culinary Union (as Dana White says) or something less ominous, it depends on whom you talk to.

But when MMA does finally get legalized in New York, the UFC plans on doing it big.

“When we finally do break through and do a big event here, I think the event at Madison Square Garden that we do will be huge, and it’s be a great time to pull off a Fan Expo here in New York,” White said. “I think it would be huge.”

In the meantime, those in New York who want to catch MMA in a live setting must go underground. Or, underwater. For MMA, there’s light at the end of the Lincoln Tunnel, across the way in East Rutherford, N.J., where the UFC will once again mock New York with the one thing it doesn’t have.

Nate Diaz is 25 minutes and one victory away from a shot at the UFC lightweight title, Dana White revealed on Wednesday. More »

Chael Sonnen may be feeling extremely fortunate that his middleweight title fight against Anderson Silva has been moved out of Brazil, after UFC president Dana White detailed the dangers he went through just to attend a news conference. More »

There’s a danger in thinking out loud. And, at this point the UFC must realize this better than anybody.

For the past couple of months, Chael Sonnen was assuredly fighting Anderson Silva in Silva’s native Brazil, and the only thing left was to sort out the nagging details. Those details finally got in the way, and now the fight is headed for Las Vegas, which is a bit of crushing news for romantics.

Yet when you think about it, didn’t this thing always feel too good, too tantalizingly ominous to be true? The brazen American getting dropped into hostile territory in an attempt to take the belt from the company’s best-ever fighter? This was dramatic overload. It was the “Rumble in the Jungle” -- only it wouldn’t be held at a neutral site. This was Sonnen being lowered into a burbling cauldron. It was the odds being stacked so impossibly against him that the situation shared more in common with movies than reality (think “Rocky IV”).

And from the American perspective, the sweeteners were Sonnen’s motormouth in conjunction with the immensity of the setting. The event was targeted for Rio de Janeiro's Joao Havelange Stadium -- a.k.a. Engenhao -- which could feasibly hold a record number of people (between 60,000-80,000).

Sonnen was played up to be the man of risks -- the security risk with an overnight bag of asterisks. Bold enough to walk the plank. Silva was to be the deliverer of comeuppance. The rectifier. Fighting in Brazil for Brazil.

For the sport of MMA, it was history in the making, in a setting as big as their rivalry.

Only it didn’t get entirely made. The rematch is officially happening on July 7 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, the “fight capital of Earth” as Sonnen says. Another way of looking at it is like this: Sonnen/Silva II is happening in a common setting on a big weekend of fights.

In a news conference yesterday from Rio de Janeiro, Dana White broke the news of the switch and explained the problems they had in securing a venue in Brazil. White, Silva and Sonnen showed up in person first and foremost to apologize, and second to redirect hype.

No doubt this whole thing is a bummer for the UFC, who sensed the historical value we’re talking about.

It’s disappointing to Calgary, the Canadian city that is likely losing featherweight champion Jose Aldo to fill the void at UFC 147.

It’s disappointing for Silva, who has fought an 11 times in the States, once in Canada, once in Abu Dhabi and once in Rio as a UFC employee. He is 14-0 in those fights, which means he doesn’t exactly have any big druthers. But his fifteenth fight -- and remember, every fight these days could be his last -- was meant to be epic. It was meant to shatter the UFC 129 attendance record -- in his native country.

None of that will happen now.

The good news is the fight is booked -- that’s the practical thing to remember. UFC 148 now looks like the most loaded card of the year, a card the promoters could easily dub as “Rivals” with all the continuations in play -- Sonnen/Silva II, Urijah Faber/Dominick Cruz III, Tito Ortiz/Forrest Griffin III. It’s a lot of sequels and trilogies in a city where whatever happens is meant to stay there. And that’s a little salt on the wound to Brazilians and romantics and any fan of "Mission: Impossible."

Yet plenty of people will like this switch. There’s a lot of foot traffic in Vegas come Memorial Day weekend, and this fight becomes accessible. The American media will rejoice because now they can attend without having to secure visas. This thing becomes a lot more convenient to cover.

But we weren’t dealing in conveniences; we were dealing in historic backdrops. We were dealing in extreme inconveniences, which is exactly why Sonnen-Silva II in Brazil was so alluring. The “Rumble in the Jungle” wouldn’t have been nearly as compelling as the “Fracas in Las Vegas.”

And it’s disappointing to wave good-bye to what could have been, especially knowing the magnitude of the thing that nearly was.

UFC president Dana White commented on many topics over the course of the weekend, but perhaps the most telling quotes were on the future of B.J. Penn. More »

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UFC president Dana White has ruled out the option of having Mark Hunt fight Junior dos Santos for the heavyweight title. More »

Dana White’s twitter account says Frank Mir will still be fighting Cain Velasquez on May 26. Just about everything else, though, suggests otherwise.

In a response to a fan on the social networking site Friday, the UFC president wrote, “Cain vs. Mir will happen,” referencing the UFC 146 co-main event scheduled for next month.

Many interpreted White’s statement as the end of speculation that Mir would be the one to replace Alistair Overeem in the night’s main event, should he fail to receive a license from the commission after recently failing a random drug test in Las Vegas.

As much fun as it’s been for fans to rally behind Mark Hunt or fantasize about the sight of a certain Russian in the Octagon, once May 26 rolls around, chances are we’ll be right back where the speculation started -- meaning, with Mir.

Am I calling White a liar? Not exactly. What, then, did that tweet mean exactly?

Remember for a second how White found out that Overeem, a man who’s faced accusations of steroid use in the past and was barely licensed for his UFC debut against Brock Lesnar, tested hot.

It was right before he was scheduled to hop on a conference call with members of the Canadian media. So, you’ve got the UFC president finding out one of his major summer fights is in jeopardy moments before entering a setting where anything he says becomes very public.

The situation led to a few very candid responses from White on how he felt about the news. He was admittedly “beyond p---ed.” He implied Overeem to be “an absolute moron,” and even hinted the promotion might cut him.

Nothing wrong with those statements -- except that Overeem isn’t quite cooked yet. The UFC is committed to seeing what happens when he applies for a license on April 24 before it moves on.

Even though the likelihood of Overeem getting a license is downright awful, it certainly doesn’t help his small chances if the president of the promotion basically acknowledges his guilt before the hearing.

Clearly, White is not in the wrong for saying what he did. Seems like a rather large majority agrees with him. It does the UFC no good, though, at this time. Watch. It’s unlikely White, or any other UFC spokesman, says anything negative regarding Overeem until after the hearing.

So, it’s possible that by saying, “No, the most obvious choice to replace Overeem -- Mir -- isn’t being considered,” is actually an attempt to say, “Well, hopefully no replacement will be necessary at all.”

The reason everyone pegged Mir as Plan B is because he’s the only viable option -- from a competitive standpoint, marketing standpoint, common sense standpoint.

Until the UFC announces “Dos Santos vs. Mir,” nothing is certain. If you’re Mir, of course, continue training with Velasquez in mind -- but don’t be afraid to schedule a boxing session, too. Just in case.

Alistair Overeem hasn't spoken publicly since news broke Wednesday that he tested positive for an increased testosterone-to-epitestosterone ratio. He probably doesn't have to for Josh Barnett to understand what the 31-year-old Dutch heavyweight is feeling right now.

Barnett, of course, paid a heavy price when he failed a prefight drug test in California almost three years ago. Lost was a huge payday against Fedor Emelianenko, then ranked No. 1 in the division and widely considered among the best competitors in mixed martial arts. The loss of the fight was also the impetus for Affliction Entertainment going under, a situation that rattled the business, fostered the growth and subsequent decline of Strikeforce, and eventually led to Zuffa's move to consolidate the industry.

It's unclear what penalties Overeem will suffer, but similar to Barnett (32-5) he could easily surrender a huge payday as well as the most important fight of his career -- a UFC title tilt against Junior dos Santos. Hey, at least he doesn't have to worry about bringing down a promotion, though he might not be around to partake in UFC's continuing prosperity.

Still, with dark clouds currently hanging over his head, Overeem should take solace in the notion of Barnett's return the UFC for the first time in a decade -- the message being: No matter how badly someone messes up, Zuffa is prone to forgive under the right circumstances.

Barnett's new lease on a UFC life is incumbent on defeating Daniel Cormier on May 19 to cap off the Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix tournament. If that happens, UFC president Dana White has suggested that the 34-year-old American could enter the Octagon for the first time since stopping Randy Couture in 2002 to claim the promotional title.

How would he fare against the men ranked above him (which for the time being continues to include Overeem)?

Frank Mir

At stake would be the title of best submission grappler in the heavyweight division. Mir, 32, may have usurped that title by breaking off a piece of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and you know Barnett would love the opportunity to make a point against the former UFC heavyweight champion.

On the floor it's essentially an even fight, though Barnett is much better when he fights from the top. Mir's strength comes in attacking arms. Barnett can do that too; he just prefers the leg techniques born out of catch-wrestling. I can't help but think a grappling-heavy fight between the two would be incredibly appealing.

Both have shown the ability to hurt opponents while standing, but Mir (16-5) owns a slight edge here based on recent results.

If they fought 10 times ... they'd split.

Cain Velasquez

Barnett would carry a significant experience advantage over Velasquez (9-1) and he wouldn't get pushed around by a mid-sized heavyweight.

Barnett utilizes his size and athleticism to squash other grapplers, and if Velasquez winds up on his back he may not stand up or get a reversal. You do not want to face a situation where Barnett establishes top control. He is much more dangerous from the top than Brock Lesnar ever was because he'll string together submissions, is very adept at guard-passing, and is happy to grind away at someone's facial features with his elbows.

Barnett cedes ground in this matchup when it comes to speed, striking technique, and pure wrestling. Velasquez, 29, would have to keep moving against Barnett, never let the bigger man tie him up in the clinch, especially along the fence, and stay off bottom. That's obviously the key.

If they fought 10 times ... Velasquez wins 6 of 10.

Alistair Overeem

Filling a column full of "ifs," Overeem's status remains the largest. So in this scenario, the reprieve Barnett could receive from Dana White extends to Overeem.

Now to the matchup. Overeem is a different class of striker, and while Barnett might be tempted to engage the Dutch fighter's strength it would be a mistake. Getting Overeem (36-11) to the floor isn't easy. Toying around in the clinch, which Barnett does not mind doing, might result in a rocket of a knee puncturing his midsection. Barnett does not react well to body shots, as proven by Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic, so that could be a major factor.

Barnett has to put the fight on the floor and push the pace against Overeem, whose stamina can be a question mark.

This is a violent matchup, one that surely wouldn't last the distance.

If they fought 10 times ... Barnett wins 6 of 10.

Junior dos Santos

The current UFC heavyweight champion is all about speed, movement and anvil-like punches. He's as tall as Barnett with about 25 less pounds to move around.

Barnett would lose if he stood with dos Santos, simple as that. The question is, can he take the 27-year-old Brazilian champion down without absorbing too much damage?

Barnett would be best served by roughing up dos Santos (14-1) against the fence, fighting for takedowns (just not from the outside so dos Santos can counter with knees or sprawl on the American's head), and establishing top control. Presuming he can do those things, he can win. Otherwise chances are good he'd be rendered unconscious.

If they fought 10 times ... dos Santos wins 7 of 10.

For what it’s worth, Gilbert Melendez/Josh Thomson III isn’t a bad fight. It’s just not the fight people wanted. It just feels obvious and limited and, you know, uninspired.

There was a time not that long ago when Dana White assured everybody that Melendez -- a top three lightweight who happens to be in his prime -- would not be left pining for challenges in Strikeforce. This was before his Dec. 17 Strikeforce bout with Jorge Masvidal. This was after reconciliation between White and Showtime. This was right around the time when everybody fell into reverie as to whom, and began envisioning expensive imports (maybe Benson Henderson? Clay Guida? Gray Maynard?).

Even Melendez’s camp couldn’t help but imagine the possibilities.

Things have obviously changed.

Melendez has been made into a window shopper. All those elite UFC lightweights that sit on the showroom floor? He’s left to browse and wonder with his nose smudged on the glass. Despite those early fits of optimism, Zuffa isn’t going out of its way to find Melendez challenges -- it is recycling whatever it can find in the cupboards. Somewhere along the way, things soured (again) between Showtime and White. Melendez is the biggest casualty.

Yesterday Strikeforce announced that Melendez would defend his title against ex-champ Thomson on May 19 in San Jose, Calif.; a rubber match that has an ounce of good drama. Problem is, the fight is a buzzkill for those who are interested in Melendez’s upward trajectory. Yes, they’ve split the previous two matches, but Melendez avenged the first loss easily and has won six in a row all told. Thomson has won exactly one in a row, a unanimous decision over K.J. Noons that he said afterward “was s---.” Before that, he lost to Tatsuya Kawajiri. These aren’t the kinds of credentials that earn title fights, even if there are scores to settle.

That’s one of the reasons this trilogy fight will require rose-colored glasses to appreciate. Even if the situation is deeper, it feels like "who cares" matchmaking at its laziest. That is, if you’re Gilbert Melendez. If you’re Josh Thomson, it’s an overly generous chance to reclaim the lightweight belt. And if he does, this will turn the sports world aloof. What could we look forward to then -- Thomson/Healy II? That is true tundra. Keith Wisniewski versus Chris Clements has greater import. Or we could play back Thomson/Melendez IV, and put the thing on a perpetual loop. Strikeforce might have to, because the promotion's lightweight pool is ankle-deep.

If Melendez does lose to Thomson, you’d be left wondering if something like ennui played as big a role as the “Punk” himself. That’s why it’s hard to swallow. Why should all the favors go to Thomson, the sorta-deserving challenger? Why shouldn’t Melendez, the flagship champion of Strikeforce, be better attended? Fans of MMA don’t have interest in behind the scenes politics as much as they do in watching two heads of momentum collide.

But chances are Melendez will win, live up to expectations, and then disappear into waiting for the next thing to materialize. That’s not the kind of immediate future that lights fires in competitors. Yet that’s where Melendez is in 2012 at as Strikeforce lightweight strap holder. A sort of hostage to his throne.

And if he wants to remain the most persecuted champion in MMA, at least for the rest of this year, he’ll need to stay hungry for it. Maybe that’s what White meant about finding Melendez challenges. Maybe Melendez’s biggest challenge in 2012 will be fighting through the set of circumstances, rather than whoever they stick in front of him in the cage.