ESPN Mixed Martial Arts

For what it’s worth, my personal scorecard now has Benson Henderson 1-3 in UFC title fights.

And what it’s worth, of course, is a hill of beans. In the real world, Henderson on Saturday moved to 4-0 in UFC championship bouts, tying BJ Penn’s record of three consecutive lightweight title defenses as he edged Gilbert Melendez via split decision in the main event of UFC on Fox 7.

Like a lot of people, I had Melendez taking it 48-47, thinking he stormed out to an early lead in the first two rounds, lost his momentum in the third and fourth and then rebounded to craft an ever-so-slight advantage in the final stanza. It turned out we were wrong, and the judges allowed Henderson to retain his belt on a wildly eclectic assortment of scorecards.

The crowd booed. Henderson asked his girlfriend to marry him. She said yes. They booed some more, and somewhere in there another fight between the two best lightweights in the world failed to produce a decisive victor.

The decision was not an outrage. The action here was too good and too competitive for anyone besides Melendez to be heartbroken about the outcome. The UFC’s official statistics backed up Henderson’s win and rather than continuing to doom the lightweight title to a series of equally impenetrable rematches, company brass moved quickly to say the champ’s next fight will be against the winner of the Gray Maynard-TJ Grant bout at UFC 160.

That’s fine. No argument. It may not be fair to Melendez, but after years and years of questionable decisions in MMA, we’ve been conditioned to let the close ones go. Really, we have no choice, because the alternative would do nothing but keep us up at night.

Make no mistake, however -- there is a disquieting trend developing in the UFC lightweight division, wherein it’s getting increasingly difficult to tell the winners from the losers. In a sport that places such a premium on tangible consequences and decisive results, that’s sort of a problem.

Saturday’s back-and-forth struggle was just the latest in a spate of 155-pound championship fights that have been exciting, technically exquisite and ultimately impossible to score. Dating to 2010, six of the past eight lightweight title bouts have gone to decision, many of them nail-biters. Three of those produced split verdicts and three times we saw rematches effectively put the rest of the division in limbo while we cleared up messes at the top.

Lightweight has long been regarded as MMA’s most competitive and treacherous division,and this series of ratchet-tight title fights only underscores the point. The parity is a testament to the weight class’ depth, but it also makes answering simple questions like who’s the best? and who should be champion? and even Who won? trickier than it ought to be.

At first we blamed the uncertainty on Frankie Edgar, whose diminutive stature and pesky style seemed scientifically engineered to produce close fights.

Now though, Henderson looks well on his way to establishing a similar rhythm. All seven of his UFC outings have gone the distance, as compared to just two decisions in six earlier bouts in the WEC. Officially, he’s won all seven Octagon appearances, but his pair against Edgar and now this one with Melendez all easily could’ve gone the other way.

That alone makes trying to figure out who is the best lightweight in the world a daunting task.

Henderson’s latest victory obviously means he keeps his belt and likely retains his ESPN.com Power Rankings place as No. 1 in the division and No. 5 pound-for-pound. At 19-2 overall, having matched Penn for most successful title defenses and owning wins over Edgar, Melendez and a host of 155-pound notables, any reasonable debate about who is the greatest lightweight in UFC history now also must include him.

Unless, like me, you scored both Edgar fights and the Melendez bout for the other guy. If that’s the case, then -- yes, like me -- you’ve got a real quandary on your hands.

None of this is to say anything particularly negative about Henderson, mind you. His size, speed, strength and skills still have him looking every bit like the prototype for the next generation of successful UFC lightweights. He’s a great fighter who already has defied the expectations we lowered after watching him drop his WEC title to Anthony Pettis in December 2010 in a fight that came down to yet another very close judges’ decision.

But after this weekend, am I prepared to say Henderson is better than Melendez? I am not.
Am I prepared to say he’s better than Edgar? I am not.

Am I prepared to say he’s better than Pettis or Maynard or Michael Chandler or Eddie Alvarez? No, I am not.

Truthfully, I am not prepared to say much at all about who is tops in the lightweight division right now. I won’t be until someone, anyone, does something other than eke out a controversial decision.

UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson and challenger Gilbert Melendez both made weight Friday for their title showdown in San Jose, Calif.

With everything set for Saturday's UFC on FOX 7 main event, promotion president Dana White tapped each guy's shoulder to signal they were free to go their separate ways for the next 24 hours.

But that doesn't mean it necessarily had been smooth sailing up until that point.

Melendez had no difficulty upholding his end of the deal, checking in at 154 pounds. For Henderson, however, there was a brief moment of suspense.

Before stepping on the scale, the defending champion began removing all of his clothing. Henderson instructed UFC officials to hold up a towel, shielding him from the peering eyes of excited fans.

Such action is indicative of a fighter unsure he would make the mandatory championship-bout weight limit. By removing every stitch of clothing before stepping on the scale, Henderson knew he was cutting it very close.

Fortunately, a completely unclothed Henderson tipped the scale at exactly 155 pounds, making the bout official. No harm, no foul.

Henderson has removed all of his clothing before stepping on the scale in the past. But this time he lacked his usual look of confidence, which offered a glimpse into Henderson’s fighting future as it's getting tougher for him to make the weight on a regular basis.

Never one to shy away from the issue, Henderson openly addressed it recently with ESPN.com when the topic of a superfight against UFC welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre arose. As his body continues to grow and get stronger, Henderson is under the impression that size won't be an issue if a bout with St-Pierre is made.

"I'm getting older," Henderson said. "I'm 29 now, almost 30. At my age it's getting hard for me to make the weight class at 155. So, I wouldn't mind having a break and having one fight at 170 -- having a St-Pierre fight."

While he expressed interest in the fight, Henderson made it clear he has no intention of abandoning the lightweight division. His long-term goal remains the same: to be recognized as the greatest mixed martial artist ever.

But by mentioning a fight with St-Pierre at 170 pounds, it's a way for Henderson to convey he is starting to feel the effects of cutting weight and wants to avoid diminishing his high performance level in the Octagon.

"I want to maintain my integrity," Henderson said. "I don't want to be one of those guys who cut 20 pounds of water weight and I step in the cage and look sloppy or look fat and don't perform well. I want to make sure that I am fully prepared. It's not just about making weight. It's about maintaining that strict diet, that strict lifestyle. And it gets harder and harder as guys get older -- you fill out more. And I'm getting older.

“I had the metabolism of a 19-year-old when I was 25. But now that I'm 29, my metabolism is like that of a 25-year-old. I'm still ahead of the curve, but I am slowing down. I have to work that much harder, but I can still make 155 for the rest of my career. I can do it. I'm not against doing it."

Henderson isn't making an unprecedented request. UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva has competed several times at 205 pounds, which allows him to remain sharp while giving his lean body a respite from cutting a significant amount of weight.

Silva hasn't competed at 205 often -- just three times during his nearly seven years with UFC. And Henderson isn't requesting anything more than an occasional 170-pound event.

"Like the way Anderson Silva does it -- have a fight at 205 every once in a while and always make 185, his weight class," Henderson said. "I'd be okay with that -- staying at 155, making weight at 155 for the rest of my career. But every once in a while, having a super fight at 170 -- St-Pierre and I squaring off. I'd be cool with that."

SAN FRANCISCO -- Gilbert Melendez’s long, winding ride to the UFC concludes Saturday, not so far from where it began.

The 31-year-old Californian, a Strikeforce lightweight champion and longtime resident of top-10 lists, enters the Octagon for the first time against Benson Henderson -- making him a rare rookie title challenger inside an arena that played host to some of his greatest moments as a professional mixed martial artist. All of this will be taking place an hour’s drive from where Melendez was introduced to the sport, on a whim, while wrestling at San Francisco State.

"It doesn't hurt that the Octagon is going to be in the HP Pavilion, where I've been plenty of times,” Melendez said. “So in some ways it's unfamiliar but in some ways it's so familiar.”

This could very well describe Melendez’s presence in MMA since 2002.

Compiling one of the most impressive outside-the-UFC résumés of any fighter in the sport, Melendez (21-2) fought at 143 pounds in Japan at a time when that meant something. Moving up to 155, “El Nino” dominated a strong contingent of contenders in Japan and the U.S. There isn’t a man he fought whom he didn’t defeat. Yet on the verge of his UFC debut -- a scenario he heavily though begrudgingly campaigned for in recent years -- Melendez is of the opinion that his numerous accomplishments don’t matter.

"This is the UFC. I'm 0-0 here,” Melendez said. “This is my coming-out party. Am I a certified fighter or not? Am I a joke or not? I could have a bad day and people would still think I'm a joke. I could lose and they'll think I'm a joke. But I have to win.

“I've stepped into rings. I've stepped in places where you can stomp on peoples’ faces and knee them in the head [on the floor]. I've been to other countries and other states with different rules. This is a different size cage, different rules, different organization, different title. So, yeah, I'm definitely walking in as a challenger."

The opportunity comes at the right time. Melendez readily admits he reached a plateau in Strikeforce, a promotion that couldn’t provide him with the kind of challenges he wanted, especially after Zuffa took control of the company in 2011.

"The politics behind Strikeforce, Showtime and UFC played with his head quite a bit,” said Gilbert Melendez Sr., a strong presence since the beginning of his son’s career.

Melendez got away with simply showing up in shape because it was his sense he was better than everyone he fought. “It hindered me not because of the talent of the people I fought, but the motivation,” he said. So his desire to improve waned as he struggled mentally with not being where he wanted to be. Among other reactions, frustration set in.

“You're Strikeforce champ, you can't be like, 'Hey, I don't want to be here anymore,' " said Jake Shields, who introduced Melendez to MMA and was similarly a Strikeforce champion before fleeing for the UFC when his contract was up. “He was getting paid, so he was happy in that sense but you could just see he didn't have any motivation. His training camps were suffering. I could see it.”

Rather than improving as a fighter, save taking the time to heal a nagging back injury, Melendez spent his days focused on his personal life, which included a fiancée, Keri Anne Taylor, and a baby girl. Melendez also opened an expansive gym in San Francisco’s warehouse district, not far from AT&T Park, where a full training camp was spent preparing for gifted UFC champion “Smooth” Henderson (18-2).

"He's on beast mode. He's ready to go,” said Nate Diaz, Melendez’s teammate and younger brother-in-arms. “I don't think there's anyone better than Gilbert in the lightweight division. This is his time.”

Diaz was the last member of Melendez’s crew to get a crack at a UFC belt, falling to Henderson on points in December.

"The thing with Gilbert is he really steps his game up for competition,” Diaz said. “When he's set to win, he wins. He does even better in fights than he does in training most of the time, and right now he's unstoppable in training. I think Henderson has his hands full."

All told, the Cesar Gracie jiu-jitsu team is 0-5 in UFC title contests -- a fact Melendez is keenly aware of but not consumed by. Their experience was built from the ground up, a distinctly Bay Area crew that molded itself into one of MMA’s most respected teams. All of that is undeniable and powerful should Melendez choose to call upon on it, though he knows on fight night, it’ll be just him and Henderson alone in the Octagon.

"Benson's a mixed martial artist,” Melendez said. “A lot of guys are Muay Thai guys that fight MMA. Or wrestlers that fight MMA. He uses all his tools. He's a good striker, good grappler, great submissions -- but he shines when he puts it all together. I'm also that guy, though. I'm not just a striker. I'm not just a wrestler. I'm not just a grappler. I'm an MMA fighter. I think we match up pretty evenly when it comes to that. He has some pretty good kicks but I think my hands are a lot better. Wrestling and grappling will be interesting.

“I've been thinking about this a long time. You want the respect. You want to brand yourself. You want to be be ranked. You want all that, but it's easy to put it aside. It doesn't matter: I got the opportunity.”

California has long been inundated with mixed martial arts gyms, which isn't the sort of thing that just happens.

The Gracie family settled near Los Angeles in the 1980s, and therefore so did Brazilian jiu-jitsu. After several years, the UFC arose out of an idea centered on marketing and selling what the Gracie family embraced as a value system. This was so successful that competitors flocked to the West Coast with some looking for grappling expertise and others just seeking a fight, of which there were plenty.

Soon the Golden State, particularly its southern half, was regarded as the "Mecca for MMA," especially as events and fighters and camps were covered by a burgeoning press that proliferated on the Internet as the sport struggled to gain traction in more traditional settings.

California approved the first set of codified MMA rules 13 years ago this month. Many of the UFC's early top draws -- from Royce Gracie, Ken Shamrock and Tank Abbott to Tito Ortiz and Chuck Liddell -- made their homes there. Anyone who knew anything about MMA is aware of the cultural impact of TapouT, a Southern California-formed company. Most of the MMA fights that took place on Native American lands from 1993 to 2003 were sandwiched between Fresno and the U.S.-Mexico border.

Over the past decade, however, in the wake of regulation and the sport's movement away from underground events, there's been a shift to the North in terms of where the best fighters and camps are located in California.

In 2013, California's world-class training facilities feature some of MMA's best fighters, including seven Northern Californian residents set to enter the Octagon on Saturday in San Jose. And while Southern California continues to hum along, producing a massive amount of talent as it goes, the appearance of vibrant fight teams in the mold of Shamrock's San Diego-based Lion's Den, or Ortiz's crew in Huntington Beach, is more likely a northern phenomenon.

Three major groups have come to represent NorCal MMA: Cesar Gracie jiu-jitsu, American Kickboxing Academy and Urijah Faber's Ultimate Fitness. Their impact on Saturday's card is undeniable. At the same time, SoCal teams have seemingly fallen apart. Shamrock is almost all but forgotten. Ortiz's crew splintered many times over. There are pockets of consistency, including the Inland Empire which features Millennia jiu-jitsu and Dan Henderson's Team Quest affiliate in Temecula. But it's hard to argue against the reality that the North has taken over the South for the state's MMA supremacy, particularly when it comes to raising homegrown talent.

During Saturday's main event on Fox, Gilbert Melendez will attempt to bring home UFC gold to a group of guys who have been together for well over 10 years (a fourth title try in the Octagon for the Cesar Gracie crew in 24 months). The co-feature: AKA's unbeaten rising star Daniel Cormier against former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir. The next chapter in a competitive but mostly friendly rivalry between AKA and Cesar Gracie, camps situated about an hour drive apart, pits Josh Thomson and Nate Diaz. On the undercard, the Faber-influenced trio of Chad Mendes, Joseph Benavidez, and T.J. Dillashaw will get in some work.

Major Southern California promotions aren't happening like they used to -- a product of saturation, fan complacency and promotional indifference -- so events that mattered in terms of finding talent, say those put on by King of the Cage in the early 2000s, haven't been relevant in years. Meanwhile, NorCal gyms cultivated direct pipelines into Stikeforce or UFC.

The competitive shift from SoCal or NorCal can be traced to several factors, none more noteworthy than the emergence of Strikeforce as a platform for Bay Area fighters.

Big California fight camps once synonymous with Orange County or the Inland Empire haven't been for some time. This seems tied to opportunity more than anything else, yet NorCal fighters like to suggest it has as much to do with their grittiness and determination as it does with promotional platforms. SoCal fighters would disagree, but this is how the guys up North view what's happening in the state.

And results suggest they're on the correct side of things.

UFC on Fox 7 will air on free network television from the HP Pavilion in San Jose, Calif., Saturday night. In the main event, UFC Lightweight Champion Benson Henderson will defend his title against the debuting #1 contender Gilbert Melendez, who was the final Strikeforce lightweight champion. In the co-main events, Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix winner Daniel Cormier will face former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir and Nate Diaz faces another UFC debutant in former Strikeforce lightweight champion Josh Thomson. Here are the numbers you need to know for Saturday’s fights:

6: UFC decisions to start his career for Henderson, second among active UFC fighters behind flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson. Henderson is the only fighter to start his UFC career with at least five consecutive decisions won.

Most UFC Decisions to Start Career, Active Fighters
Demetrious Johnson 7
Benson Henderson 6*
Diego Nunes 6
Nam Phan 6
*Won all decisions

10: Consecutive title fights for Melendez, who held the Strikeforce title from April 2009 to January 2013 when the organization was dissolved into the UFC. Melendez won four fights by decision and three by KO/TKO. His notable wins include rival Josh Thomson (twice) and DREAM lightweight champion Shinya Aoki.

11: Wins by KO or TKO for Melendez, four under the Strikeforce banner. Henderson has been knocked down three times in his UFC/WEC career, most notably the jumping kick off the cage from Anthony Pettis at WEC 53.

9: This will be the ninth time Melendez will fight inside the HP Pavilion, the proverbial stomping grounds of Strikeforce. He is 7-1 in previous fights at the “Shark Tank,” losing the Strikeforce lightweight championship to Thomson in 2008.

21: Takedowns for Henderson in six UFC fights (3.5 per fight). Melendez has a 71 percent takedown defense but allowed a combined 13 takedowns in his two career losses (seven to Mitsuhiro Ishida, six to Thomson).

3.6: Strikes landed per minute by Melendez. During his seven-fight win streak, Melendez has outstruck his opponents 482-272 (plus-210) in significant strikes. Henderson absorbs 1.5 significant strikes per minute and only 30 in his last win over Melendez teammate Nate Diaz.

8: Mir has an eight-inch reach advantage over Cormier (79 inches to 71). That’s nothing new to Cormier, as he’s beaten Antonio Silva (82), Devin Cole (79.5) and Josh Barnett (78).

6: All six of Mir’s career losses have come by way of KO or TKO. The former UFC heavyweight champion has never lost back-to-back fights in his career. Seven of Cormier’s 11 career wins have come via strikes (five KO/TKO, two submissions due to strikes).

8: Submission wins by Mir inside the UFC Octagon, tied for second most all time. Cormier has faced only one submission attempt in his Strikeforce career (Barnett).

Most UFC Wins by Submission
Royce Gracie 11
Frank Mir 8
Nate Diaz 8
Kenny Florian 8

3: This is Mir’s first camp with Jackson’s MMA in Albuquerque, N.M. If he wins, Mir would be the third UFC heavyweight from Jackson’s to win in this calendar year, joining Shawn Jordan (UFC on Fox 6) and Travis Browne (TUF 17 finale).

5: Of his eight submission wins inside the UFC Octagon, five have earned Nate Diaz a UFC submission of the night bonus (second all time). Thomson has never been submitted in 25 professional fights and also has nine submission victories of his own (four in Strikeforce).

Most Submission of the Night Bonuses
Joe Lauzon 6
Nate Diaz 5
Terry Etim 4

208: Diaz landed 30 significant strikes in his title fight against Benson Henderson, 208 fewer than his victory over Donald Cerrone in two fewer rounds. Thomson will be tough to hit as well; he absorbs 1.8 strikes per minute, but did absorb 3.0 per minute in his last loss to Melendez.

Benson Henderson didn’t begin preparing for his showdown Saturday night with Gilbert Melendez a few months ago, when the UFC officially announced the fight.

That process started six years ago, when Henderson trained for the first time in mixed martial arts. It was at that moment that he took the initial step toward achieving his ultimate goal: of one day being recognized as the greatest mixed martial artist ever.

In every training session, Henderson visualized himself competing and winning fights. Sometimes he’d put a face on his imaginary foe. On a few occasions, the foe would be Melendez.

And in every one of those imaginary battles, Henderson would walk away victorious.

Although Henderson was just a wannabe mixed martial artist at the time, he never doubted that, with extra hard work, his goal could be achieved. Then he turned pro and racked up a few wins, and the visions of defeating future opponents, including Melendez -- a guy who was already manhandling some of the sport’s top fighters -- became more pronounced.

So when Henderson steps inside the Octagon to defend his UFC lightweight title Saturday night in San Jose, Calif., against Melendez -- the former Strikeforce lightweight champion -- he's sure to recall the many hours spent getting ready for this moment and those visions of having his hand raised afterward. He can take solace in knowing that his years of preparation for this battle serve as the great equalizer. Those years of training for this bout will play a part in lessening Melendez’s distinct experience edge.

Melendez began his professional career in 2002, four years before Henderson participated in his first MMA training session.

“I was in college watching him fight in Japan,” 29-year-old Henderson told ESPN.com. “I wasn’t even fighting then. He has so much more experience than me. I have so much more room to grow.

“

I was in college watching him fight in Japan. I wasn't even fighting then. He has so much more experience than me. I have so much more room to grow.

” -- Benson Henderson, on Gilbert Melendez's experience as a mixed martial artist

“When you look at my career, I’ve only been fighting for [a little more than] six years. Gilbert Melendez has 20,000 hours of boxing practice. I have maybe 10,000 hours of boxing practice. I’m OK now. But I’m nowhere near as good as I will be three years from now, four years from now, five years from now.”

Stylewise, there isn’t much that separates Henderson and Melendez. They are similar in many ways. Each possesses a strong wrestling foundation. Both are aggressive fighters who pack power in their hands and legs.

There is, however, the perception that their careers are heading in different directions. Henderson admits he is still in the learning stages. He is far from his fighting peak.

“I’m just getting started,” Henderson said recently.

It could be argued that Melendez, 31, is in his prime. He’s pretty damn good, but has had his share of very violent battles. His fight with Henderson is expected to be the latest in a long line of brutal encounters.

They are sure to leave one another battered and bruised because neither is a backward-step type of guy. In a matchup like this, between two very aggressive, hard-nosed combatants, something has to give.

When the smoke clears Saturday night, one fighter will have paid a hefty price. This is the kind of bout fans are likely to remember for many years -- the type Henderson craves.

It fits right into his master plan of one day being recognized as the greatest mixed martial artist ever. But if Henderson is to accomplish this goal, he must defeat the likes of Melendez. There can be no setback; claiming to have an off night won’t cut it.

Come up short Saturday night to Melendez and the possibility of one day being classified the greatest ever gets greatly diminished.

With so much at stake, Henderson isn’t looking past Melendez. The road to greatness, where there are no shortcuts, doesn’t allow him that luxury. It’s always going to be: defeat this great opponent, then the next and the next.

Melendez represents the current hurdle, albeit one that has been visible for many years. This isn’t just another title fight for Henderson, however -- none is, at this point; it’s the latest block that’s necessary to build his legacy of greatness.

“There is a much bigger picture,” Henderson said. “Too often people forget about the bigger picture and focus on the little things. And they forget about the bigger picture, the master plan.”

Henderson never removes his eyes from the big picture. His destiny is at stake each time he steps in the cage, and Saturday night is no different. He vows not to stumble; he’s had more than enough time to get ready for this showdown.

“Life is like a roller coaster, you’ll have ups and downs,” said Henderson, the former WEC champion who works diligently to never again taste defeat in a title fight. “Every time I step into the Octagon, I want to be fully prepared as a champion emotionally, spiritually, physically.

“I’m fighting Gilbert Melendez on Saturday night. I’ve been preparing six years for this.”

In 2013, the year of the “superfight” and new-fashioned division jumping in the UFC, anything is possible.

How possible? A simple, timely text can shake up an entire division for the better part of a year. Ask Ricardo Lamas, who should have been the next featherweight for Jose Aldo if Anthony Pettis, ten pounds and 1,000 decibels his superior, wasn’t the quickest Blackberry draw in the Midwest.

When Dana White got the buzz that night, it played out like this: Merit, shmerit. This game deals in duckets.

Imagine that: Diaz-Ellenberger is the potential title fight nobody is talking about.

Now Pettis-Aldo is slated to take place in far-off August. Jon Jones versus Anderson Silva has been speculated about for New York (or Brazil [or Dallas]) in November (or December), even though Silva is fighting Chris Weidman in July, and Jones has a fight with Chael Sonnen in April. Apparently Sonnen can be looked right past to the “superfight” everybody wants. In fact, Jones/Silva is the only true superfight right now that is super enough to make rational people superstitious. Nobody wants to jinx it, except a couple of pesky wrestlers who stand in their way.

Then there’s UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson, who is talking about bouncing up to welterweight to face Georges St-Pierre, even though he has a fight with reigning Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez this spring, and GSP fights Nick Diaz next weekend.

That idea has since been shot down by White but, what, is Melendez a hologram? It used to be that media and fans were always thinking two steps ahead. Now the fighters are, too? This is fantastic. (I have to admit -- it’s fun to align in such foolish behavior!).

At least the scenarios get simpler from here, so let's look ahead. On March 16, at UFC 158, the welterweights will come into focus. It’s really black and white. The three top fights on the card are 170-pounders. St-Pierre, who we are assured has a dark chamber in his psyche that nobody (especially that inconsiderate Nick Diaz!) can possibly fathom, headlines the event.

All revolves around him beating Diaz. If he defeats Diaz he could fight anyone from Johny Hendricks to Carlos Condit to Jake Ellenberger to Silva, this summer, this fall, or this winter. The line snakes around the block. Hendricks more than deserves the shot, particularly if he beats Condit that same night. He has been deserving for what feels like years. If Hendricks and St-Pierre both win, that fight seems obvious.

In 2011, maybe. In 2013, not so fast.

That’s because people like Silva and Henderson happen to exist. Though Silva is now booked to fight Weidman at UFC 162, he can't help but still hover over St-Pierre in 2013. Now with a new contract, it's possible he courts that St-Pierre fight sooner rather than later. St-Pierre would have to be coaxed into agreeing, of course, which is never a given.

In other words, even if all goes to plan and both GSP and Hendricks win, Hendricks could find himself on the outside looking in. Yet again. If that were the case, maybe Hendricks could fight Rory MacDonald next, who was scrapped from the card when he got injured. He was supposed to face Condit.

And speaking of Condit, he could emerge as a dark horse in the St-Pierre sweepstakes. If he takes care of No. 1 contender Hendricks, he has some ammo. After all, the first fight had that fleeting moment when Condit came unnervingly close. And if Diaz pulls the upset over St-Pierre and somehow makes it out of Montreal in one piece, same thing -- Diaz-Condit II is viable (unless the fight results in a scorecard nightmare and St-Pierre/Diaz II has to be played back immediately). If Condit wins and somebody texts Dana White to jump the line to GSP, you’ve still got the Condit-MacDonald vendetta to sort out. No scenario is without a silver lining.

There are other factors. Ellenberger is on the card fighting Nate Marquardt, who two years after trying to debut at 170 pounds in the UFC finally gets his chance. One of them -- namely Ellenberger -- could factor into this title discussion, too. Much like an 8-7 NFL team heading into the final regular season game in a tight Wild Card race -- Ellenberger is mathematically alive, but needs help. He needs an emphatic showing and some smiling fortune, such as Johny Hendricks losing. The UFC might jump him to the top to avoid rolling back Condit-GSP II too soon in that case (even though Ellenberger lost to Condit narrowly in 2009). Unless Diaz wins, that is, and Condit faces a long medical suspension in victory.

Imagine that: Diaz-Ellenberger is the potential title fight nobody is talking about.

What’s at stake come March 16 in this makeshift welterweight grand prix? Feels like plenty. But in 2013, “what’s at stake” has turned into a versatile question. There is no obvious answer. And if you ask White beforehand, you’re likely to get his go-to response for most things yon: We’ll see what happens.

Anthony Pettis is a man of action. He could have voluntarily waited for his chance at the 155-pound belt. Or he could do what he did, which was text UFC president Dana White to embark on an expedition.

Pettis asked for a chance to fight Jose Aldo, the 145-pound champion who just defended his title against Frankie Edgar on Saturday night. He wasted no time. His text came just minutes after UFC 156 concluded, as Aldo’s feet were still smarting from so many thwacking leg kicks. Pettis knew what he wanted to do, and he went after it.

You know what this is, don’t you? This is one of those "match made in heaven" deals -- the explosive Aldo, who at the end of his five-round war with Edgar sprung himself off the fence for one last sally. And Pettis. The Original Matrix. The WEC champion. Mister Ricochet. The Liver Kicka.

The fight will happen Aug. 3, and it’s a win-win for everybody. Pettis gets his title shot, and therefore the UFC keeps him rolling. Aldo gets the toughest next challenge. Gilbert Melendez and Benson Henderson can go about things in focus, rather than have a looming presence. Ricardo Lamas can fight Chan Jung Sung for the true No. 1 contender bout. And the UFC gets a fight that is filled with thrill, frill and thrall.

Pettis/Aldo will sit on the calendar until August like a new Ang Lee action movie.

But the greatest part about this isn’t the way the fight was made, or even that it was made -- it’s that the champion, Jose Aldo, never hesitated. It took him less than 48 hours to agree to fight Pettis, who by all accounts represents a very true and live threat to take his belt.

Isn’t this how it’s supposed to work? The champion seeing no man as an obstruction to his cause? The champion saying, “bring on all comers,” not in words by in decisive action? Aldo did what we want our champions to do, which is simply say "yes." This translates a lot better than airing their druthers.

Not that other champions haven’t acted the same. Benson Henderson truly doesn’t seem to care whom they stack in front of him. Neither does Cain Velasquez. But in recent times, we’ve seen Georges St-Pierre insist on Nick Diaz (at the omission of Johny Hendricks), and Anderson Silva request everyone from Cung Le to Luke Rockhold (at the very conspicuous expense of Chris Weidman).

Maybe after absorbing so much finicky behavior in recent months, Aldo’s "why hesitate?" attitude shows the right kind of eagerness. Here’s what he’s saying: If you want the belt, come try to take it. If the UFC wants the fight, so do I. If the fans want it, bring it on. Right on, Jose Aldo.

And right on to Anthony Pettis.

Not that there isn’t some logical curiosity in play. Obviously, Pettis fighting in August isn’t exactly expediting anything. Had he waited out Melendez/Henderson, which happens in April, August would have been around the time he’d have fought anyway. That’s just math.

But that's just nitpicking. Bottom line is he wanted a guarantee and to have the fight lined up in front of him. He wanted to zero in on a belt, and this thing played out like an epiphany. He knew there wasn’t a definitive contender at featherweight, and he acted on it. And Pettis -- who goes by “Showtime” -- knows a showstopper when he sees one. Think he can’t bring the house down in a bout with Aldo?

He can. And kudos to Aldo for inviting him to just go ahead and try it.

Title shots are nice, but they’re hard to come by in the UFC’s lightweight division. Anthony Pettis knows. Since coming over as the reigning WEC champion a little more than two years ago, he has lived in a world of obstructions.

There was the Frankie Edgar bottleneck situation, when every title fight extended into a classic title series. There was the Clay Guida setback (which exposed some wrestling deficiencies) and the Jeremy Stephens rebound fight (which showed he fixed some wrestling deficiencies). There was the ridiculous head kick to Joe Lauzon, which re-revved the title talk. Then there was a shoulder injury that docked him for a year.

Buzz kill.

And even now, as Pettis returns for his bout with Donald Cerrone on Saturday in Chicago, his path to a title shot looks more like a frontage road detour. Defeat his fellow WEC alum Cerrone, and the reward is to wait and see. That’s because Strikeforce’s longtime champion Gilbert Melendez has been expedited into a title tilt with Benson Henderson, which takes place in April.

Melendez gets the immediate shot, and Pettis’ world remains complicated. It’s limbo. It’s contention. It’s relevance. It’s ring rust. It’s trying to re-establish his bearings.

“It’s weird right now,” Pettis told ESPN.com's MMA Live Extra. “I’ve been promised title shots; I’ve been guaranteed title shots. So really [beating Cerrone] doesn’t put me anywhere. I’m right at the top of the top. I’ve just got to keep my performances clean and sharp and strong and a title shot will come when it comes. But right now I’m just focusing on getting back in there. It’s almost been a year.”

Let’s face it, UFC on FOX 6 is a kind of layered phenomena. You’ve got a flyweight title fight at the top between Demetrious Johnson and John Dodson, which is electric but not suited to everyone’s tastes. That’s why Quinton Jackson is in the co-main. Jackson is making his final Octagon appearance (allegedly) against the intrigue of the light heavyweight division, Glover Teixeira. Wheelhouse brawl, right? Maybe. In any case, that fight should be sad, fierce and brutal.

And it’s not even the heart of the card.

The heart of the card is, of course, the one in the middle. Pettis-Cerrone is the fight. Pettis always brings it. Cerrone always brings it. If Pettis wants to stand and bang, Cerrone will oblige -- “Cowboy” never shrinks from the terms. And so long as Duke Roufus’ protégé Pettis isn’t fighting a determined wrestler, he recreates Chinese “wire fu.” That’s just what he does.

So even as the implications are up in the air, so will the kicks come fight night. And that’s just about as far as Pettis is willing to look.

“For me, man, it’s just to get back in there and mix it up,” he said. “It’s been almost a year since I fought and I want to stay relevant and show people that ‘Showtime’ has skills -- that I’ve got talent. Fighting a guy like Cowboy [Cerrone] is definitely going to give me that chance. He’s a tough, tough guy, and it’s not going to take one or two shots to drop him -- it’s going to take a couple.”

Cerrone, who has won eight of nine fights, is in contention, too. He called out Pettis because Pettis was the man in his way. Each fighter sees the other as an obstacle to reach what has become a far-off kingdom: that elusive chance at a title shot in the UFC’s lightweight division.

That could be what’s at stake. But when you’re dealing in the Pettises and Cerrones of the world, the journey is just as much fun as the destination. As far as Pettis’ ongoing journey goes, the future can be shaped by a simple objective come Saturday night.

“Make a statement,” he said. “I’m tired of not getting the respect I deserve. Guys calling me overrated, ‘one kick’ this and that. I’m in my position for a reason, and I’ve got to show everybody why I’m right there at the top.”

Well, don’t worry. Don’t worry. Anthony Pettis is not going to do what you all think he’s going to do -- which is just flip out.

No, when Pettis heard that the next UFC lightweight title shot is officially going to Gilbert Melendez, it didn’t faze him. After all, it’s not the first time he’s been overlooked.

“It is what it is,” Pettis told ESPN.com. “It’s not a shocker or some crazy new news to me. I’ve been here before.”

Several times, actually. Following a draw between Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard at UFC 125 in January 2011, it was announced at the press conference that Pettis would still face Edgar in the next title bout as originally planned. But things changed.

Following Pettis' spectacular knockout over Joe Lauzon at UFC 144 in February, UFC president Dana White said he thought Pettis would be next in line. Didn’t happen.

Also in 2012, the UFC informed Pettis he was a front-runner to coach "The Ultimate Fighter" reality series opposite Donald Cerrone, so much so that Pettis assembled his coaching staff for the show. The contract, though, must have gotten lost in the mail.

Heading into 2013, there are no expectations from Pettis or his camp. There’s only what’s real and in front of him, which right now means a highly anticipated bout with Cerrone at a UFC on Fox event in Chicago on Jan. 26.

“One of our mottos is don’t be bitter, be better,” said Duke Roufus, Pettis’ head trainer. “You can’t control what happened yesterday. Just focus on what’s going to happen tomorrow.”

For the record, Pettis believes Melendez is a terrific lightweight. He believes the competition he’s faced in the last two years trumps anything Melendez saw as the Strikeforce champion, but whatever. Doesn’t matter. He's not complaining.

Pettis (15-2) knows he can’t be thinking about Melendez, current champion Ben Henderson or anyone else when he enters the cage later this month for the first time since the Lauzon win. He can’t afford it against a guy like Cerrone.

“I’ve never had a fight where I had to switch things up on the fly,” Pettis said. “I think you’re going to see the best Anthony Pettis in this because I’ve got an opponent who can push me and who, I believe, can stay in front of me the whole time.”

The possibility of trash talk loomed in this fight, as Cerrone (19-4) spent much of 2012 telling anyone who would listen Pettis was ducking him.

As the fight gets closer, though, the interviews have shown the genuine respect these two have for one another. You get the sense each knows this is a fight in which anything could happen. A title fight, minus the title.

“Donald Cerrone is one hell of a fighter,” Roufus said. “They are similar in styles but different in demeanor. As a fan of fighting, this should be the fight fans want to tune in and watch.

“No one can make a mistake. The guy who makes a mistake is the guy who loses this fight. This is going to be a very brutal chess match.”

There is not yet any guarantee the winner will go on to challenge for the 155-pound belt. Even if there was such a promise, Pettis likely wouldn’t believe it.

He’s heard the rumors that free agent Eddie Alvarez could get an immediate title shot if he joins the UFC, a move Pettis said would make “no sense” since Alvarez wasn’t even a champion at the end of his Bellator contract.

Regardless, Pettis only wants to get back to what originally put him in line to compete for the title in 2011. Just win fights.

“I figured out early in my career that things change,” Pettis said. “Until contracts are signed, you don’t have a title shot. I’m just excited to get back in the cage.”

It’s always a good problem to have two (or three) contenders with strong cases to fight for a belt. That’s the perpetual state of the UFC’s always-bountiful lightweight division. Ever since Frankie Edgar clogged the top with his battery of rematches -- BJ Penn, Gray Maynard and Benson Henderson -- the challengers have been consistently two and three deep.

To be a 155-pound contender, all you need to have is continued patience and awesomeness.

And that is the ongoing norm for Anthony Pettis, particularly now that it’s been confirmed that Benson Henderson is fighting reigning Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez on April 20 at UFC on Fox 7. Pettis’s own fight with Donald Cerrone on Jan. 26 in Chicago is all about the sliding stakes. It’s for understudy purposes; for the right to be next next. In essence, Pettis needs to beat Cerrone to continue his holding pattern. That’s not entirely ideal.

Here’s the thing, though: Pettis-Henderson II has a nice, long shelf life. The attraction of that rematch will hold.

The same’s not necessarily the case for Melendez, who has been ranked on pound-for-pound lists since Henderson was fighting Diego Saraiva in Evolution. Until now, he was unavailable to UFC challenges, and we’ve been pining for just such a scenario as this. Now, in a twist of organized fate, he gets his shot at the UFC belt in San Jose, where Melendez has always been right at home. Strikeforce was headquartered in San Jose, where it did burst the seams of “regional.” Melendez was a big reason the thing grew like it did.

Now he gets Henderson and a chance at the UFC strap, and the selling point boils down to one vital thing: curiosity.

Is he as good as we think he is? Melendez has won seven bouts in a row. He hasn't fought in anything other than title fights since 2008. All he does is beat the guy in front of him, even if you (or I) dub that guy a step down from the names he’d see in the UFC. Complaints towards the quality of his opposition don’t belong at his door. He’s always wanted to fight the best there is, even as he’s had to settle for the best available.

The bigger issue, though, is that Melendez only has this kind of unique timing on his side once. He’s coming to the UFC right when all the inter-promotional intrigue is still intriguing. If the UFC cuts a “champion versus champion” type promo for UFC on Fox 7 -- much like it attempted with Nick Diaz versus Georges St-Pierre for UFC 137 -- you’re catching these confluences at just the right time. Melendez, for so long sequestered in Strikeforce where he was dominant and under-challenged, against Henderson, who has lofty aims of one-upping whatever records Anderson Silva leaves behind.

If you stack Melendez against a Gray Maynard first, you run the risk of him being “Lombarded.” And if that seems like an exposure point to Melendez’s detractors, so be it. The truth is, the UFC operates on hype, in which strong hunches, one way or another, play as key of a role as documented fact.

For Henderson, it’s a title defense. For “El Nino,” this fight plays closer to justification.

Is Melendez the best lightweight going? That’s the question that makes him a polarizing figure for fans. He has apologists, and he has detractors, and he has haters. He has believers, too. Strong ones. Insistent ones. Is he as good as his believers say? There’s one way to find out.

And that happens, at long last, on April 20.

As for Pettis, he has history in his back pocket. If Pettis wins at UFC on FOX 6, the much-awaited rematch of WEC 53 looms in the shadows of UFC on Fox 7. There’s an active, deep-rooted vendetta in play for that bit of fence magic Pettis punctuated things with in the last fight with Henderson. He can be on hand in San Jose to challenge the winner.

In reality, nothing much changes other than Pettis -- presuming he beats Cerrone -- has three added months to let things play out. Three months isn’t that long for a guy so accustomed to waiting.

Most wins in Strikeforce welterweight division
With his victory over Nate Marquardt for the Strikeforce welterweight title, Tarec Saffiedine won his sixth fight in the organization, tying him with former champion Nick Diaz for second in wins all time in the promotion's 170-pound division.

Tyron Woodley: 8
Tarec Saffiedine: 6
Nick Diaz: 6
Three others tied: 3

Most wins in Strikeforce history
Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix winner Daniel Cormier defeated Dion Staring at the final event for the organization, finishing his Strikeforce career with eight wins, tied for fourth.

Gilbert Melendez: 11
Josh Thomson: 10
Luke Rockhold: 9
Daniel Cormier: 8
Tyron Woodley: 8

Strikeforce champs in UFC debuts
The five Strikeforce champions who are signed or expected to sign with the UFC are heavyweight champion Cormier, middleweight champion Rockhold, welterweight champion Saffiedine, lightweight champion Melendez and women's bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey. They have a lot to live up to as former Strikeforce champions are 4-0 in their UFC debuts.

Alistair Overeem KO1 Brock Lesnar (UFC 141)
Dan Henderson W5 Mauricio Rua (UFC 139)
Nick Diaz W3 BJ Penn (UFC 137)
Jake Shields W3 Martin Kampmann (UFC 121)

Pride/WEC champs in UFC debuts
In comparison, the incumbent Pride and WEC champions were 0-4 when taking on a UFC fighter in their debut fight:

WEC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis L3 Clay Guida (TUF 13 finale)
Pride light heavyweight champion Dan Henderson L5 Quinton Jackson (UFC 75)
Pride middleweight champion Dan Henderson L2 Anderson Silva (UFC 82)
Pride lightweight champion Takanori Gomi L3 Kenny Florian (UFC Fight Night 21)

It’s fight week, and it’s flight week. No more Strikeforce after Saturday night. No more wondering if and when we’ll be sold on Josh Thomson-Gilbert Melendez IV. No more decagon, and no more second-class citizenry.

At long last, the long road ends. Hey, we’ll always have Frank Shamrock’s cosmetic dental braces.

Since it was a slow, awkward demise, Strikeforce’s last show comes as a relief. Bittersweet? A little. But this wasn’t like the cult of Pride. San Jose wasn’t far-off Japan. Lenne Hardt wasn’t involved, even if Fedor Emelianenko was. Some of Pride’s vital pieces were re-imagined as Strikeforcers (after stints, in some cases, as Afflictioners). In many cases, their myths came down long before the curtain.

And even still, there are some big names coming over to the UFC, fighters who will deepen the divisions. While Sean Shelby was struggling in 2012 to make fights out of whatever he could find in the nearly bare cupboards on Strikeforce’s roster, Joe Silva in 2013 has more pieces than he knows what to do with.

Here’s a look at five impact fighters who, as of Jan. 13, become the latest UFC intrigues.

Daniel Cormier
The late-bloomer Cormier comes over with momentum. For starters, his gradual ascension from wrestler to professional MMA fighter got a boost when Alistair Overeem was plucked from the Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix. In went Cormier (the third alternate), who’d handled Jeff Monson in an understudy bout to stay loose. What did he do in the tournament? He destroyed Antonio Silva in the semis, for starters, with speed and power on the feet. Then he dominated Josh Barnett to cap things off. He’s part of the Strikeforce swan song this weekend, and still needs to get by Dion Staring, but it’s generally believed that Cormier is a threat to win the UFC title. The problem is a familial one: His AKA training partner Cain Velasquez currently holds the belt, and Cormier doesn’t want to trade punches with his friend. Conditions, conditions, always conditions.

Impact factor: High. The UFC’s heavyweight division isn’t as deep as some of the others, and with his tool set -- wrestling, hands, surprising agility for a hydrant -- Cormier feels like storm clouds gathering overhead.

Nate Marquardt
Current welterweight champion Nate Marquardt will be back in the UFC, where he never got the chance to debut at 170 pounds. How will he look there? That’s a good question. For one thing, Marquardt has barely fought in the past three years (elevated testosterone, injuries, the never christened BAMMA promotion thing), and has competed only once as a welterweight (his title-clinching win over Tyron Woodley in July). He’s 33 years old, and he’s won three of four fights. But he is coming into a weight class that is so congested at the top that UFC 158 was created just to sort it all out. Remember, Marquardt fought for the middleweight title back in mid-2007, and six years later he’s vying for another chance. Six. Years. Later. And this time he’s doing it as a welterweight, where Georges St-Pierre rules.

Impact factor: Moderate. After a 16-month absence, Marquardt looked great in his title fight with Woodley. But he has looked great in spots throughout his career, only to come up short. Maybe he’ll be revitalized as a welterweight and make a historic run, but the only thing he’s sustained in the past half-decade is inconsistency.

Gilbert Melendez
Oh yes, ol’ Gil. Melendez quickly became a martyr figure in the spiraling Strikeforce ordeal. Remember, UFC president Dana White promised that Melendez would be happy as a clam with the types of elite opponents they’d dredge up for him in Strikeforce. That was right after he signed his deal. Turns out that was a bit of unfounded optimism (though Thomson III was fun). Now the partition comes down between Melendez and that brooding cast of elite 155ers in the UFC. Stick Melendez in there against any of the top names and it’s instant drama. Gray Maynard? Cool. Donald Cerrone? Sick fight. Anthony Pettis? That barn will burn. Benson Henderson? Let’s see who’s the best in the world. Face it: Melendez is the one guy everybody wanted to see fighting in the UFC. Now it’s a reality.

Impact factor: High. Melendez’s knock is that he hasn’t fought the best guys on the planet. But he’s beaten the guys who have stood in front of him, and is ranked as one of the best pound-for-pound in the world. He carries a seven-fight win streak into the UFC. No reason to believe he can’t compete for (and win) the UFC gold.

Ronaldo Souza
Jacare, the former Strikeforce middleweight champion, is a quiet, sudden menace (much like his cousin, the alligator). He does work on the ground like nobody’s business. Yet in spot duty in 2012, he took care of Derek Brunson in 41 no-nonsense seconds with punches -- 41 seconds that Chris Leben likely studied in building up optimism toward his own fight with Brunson. Is standing with “Jacare” a little like playing with a grenade? Wouldn’t that be fun for one of the world’s best jiu-jitsu practitioners. Souza’s stock could soar if he gets by Ed Herman similarly in the final Strikeforce card. Do that and he enters the UFC as a top-10 middleweight. And the UFC’s 185-pound division, if you haven’t noticed, lacks challengers.

Impact factor: Moderate to high. Granted, Souza is 33 years old, but he will be trouble for anybody he faces. He didn’t get a second fight with Luke Rockhold in Strikeforce, but that possibility opens up for him in the UFC. He’s won six of seven fights, and really, since 2004, his only other loss was to Gegard Mousasi (via upkick).

Luke Rockhold
Somebody had better call up Tony Rubalcava and ask how he solved Rockhold back in 2007, Rockhold’s only loss to date. Not that it would do you any good. Rockhold has steadily progressed for the past five years in all areas; he’s become more precise, he’s stronger, he’s good in a scramble, his striking has become more formidable, his ground game solid, his head cool at all times. Along the way he won a title over Ronaldo Souza, treated a recharged Keith Jardine as a has-been and worked Tim Kennedy for five punishing rounds. Can he compete with Anderson Silva? It’s time to find out. But that’s my attitude. ESPN’s Brett Okamoto has Rockhold pegged as the next middleweight champion in the UFC, and Okamoto isn’t one for going out on foolhardy ledges.

Impact factor: High. Rockhold has only gotten better over the course of his career, a testament to training with the talent-rich cast at AKA. He’s a sinewy 6-foot-3, and he blends up violence and smarts. Bottom line is he’s a live wire at middleweight and that just happens to be a division in need of live wires.

During this entire Strikeforce mess that’s consumed the past 20 months, we still haven’t seen one of its champions fight for a UFC belt.

That’s kind of crazy, isn’t it? Remember when Zuffa purchased Strikeforce last year and we were all like, "Yay, now we get to see all the fights we want"? Those were happy times.

Some strange and frustrating events have taken place since. You can’t make up what’s happened with Strikeforce champions in the UFC so far.

Nick Diaz beat up a lightweight, lost to a welterweight, awkwardly retired, failed a drug test and was suspended. Alistair Overeem beat up a semi-retired Brock Lesnar, literally ran away from a random drug test in Nevada, failed it and was suspended.

Dana White went from expecting a large role in Strikeforce to completely washing his hands of it, seemingly overnight. Rumors of a dreaded "List" swirled, which contained names of Strikeforce fighters the UFC couldn’t legally touch.

In the meantime you, the fan, were like Jonah Hill in "The 40-Year-Old Virgin," -- told there were legitimate reasons why things could not be a certain way, but not feeling any better about it. You just wanted to buy the shoes.

With Strikeforce reportedly closing its doors following a final event in January, the sun is finally shining on these matchups again. Everyone, it seems, is about to be under one roof.

So, let the fantasy matchmaking recommence. Here’s a guess as to how each Strikeforce champ will fare in the UFC.

Lightweight: Gilbert Melendez (21-2)

I asked the Twittersphere which Strikeforce fighter it was most amped about and Melendez is still No. 1, although not by much. Opinions on Melendez range from a definite UFC champ to most overrated lightweight in the world.

I’m somewhere in the middle. He looked ordinary in wins over Jorge Masvidal and Josh Thomson, but I attended both, and competing in front of low-energy, small-sized crowds in everything-to-lose situations had to be tough.

Melendez is entering the UFC’s deepest division, so it definitely pays off being as well-rounded as he is. He can stand with a Muay Thai specialist and go to the ground with a Division I wrestler.

Prediction: "El Nino" will be a constant in the top-10 ranks, but will come up short of UFC gold.

Welterweight: Nate Marquardt (32-10-2)

Ask yourself a question: Would you pick Marquardt in fights over Johny Hendricks and Martin Kampmann? Even if you say no, you had to at least think about it, right? Those two are at the top of the welterweight heap right now, and I’d be tempted to favor Marquardt over either of them.

There’s less mystique around Marquardt because he’s more of a UFC fighter serving detention than a true member of the Strikeforce family. He’s a scary addition to 170, though, which has gotten deeper but is still wide open to a fighter who can string a few wins together.

Prediction: Marquardt beats Tarec Saffiedine in January, then fights a rejuvenated Dan Hardy later in 2013.

Middleweight: Luke Rockhold (10-1)

Look at the theme going on with UFC champions. With the exception of flyweight and heavyweight, every division has a physically imposing title-holder. Jose Aldo has a tough cut. Ben Henderson is enormous. Look at the length of Anderson Silva, Jon Jones.

Rockhold brings that type of size and athleticism to the cage. It helps him dictate range, defend takedowns and neutralize submission specialists on the ground. He’s got a good work ethic and time on his side (he's only 28). There’s a lot to like here.

Prediction: If Rockhold were in the UFC, he’d be getting the same attention of a Chris Weidman. He’s still raw right now, but unless Anderson Silva fights until he’s 50 (probably not, but who knows?) Rockhold will win a UFC belt in his career.

Heavyweight: Daniel Cormier (10-0)

Until the win over Josh Barnett, it was still too early for me to jump on the Cormier bandwagon. He had knocked out Antonio Silva, but Silva gets hit a lot. He’s got the Olympic wrestling pedigree, but he’s undersized and got into the game so late.

The win over Barnett infected me with DC fever just like everyone else. His wrestling is second to none and he’s incorporated it well into his new sport. He’s an even better athlete than you expect with surprising speed and he’s proved he has sufficient knockout power one needs in the heavyweight division.

Prediction: As good as Cormier is, I still don’t see him beating Junior dos Santos and he won’t fight teammate Cain Velasquez. Those two things significantly lower his chances at the heavyweight belt. He’s talked of a move to 205, but that gets to be dicey as we don’t know how the weight cut would go, and Jon Jones is a tough matchup.

On Wednesday two Strikeforce title fights were revealed.

Gilbert Melendez defends against Pat Healy on Sept. 29. Daniel Cormier gets Frank Mir (you read that right) not long after.

The first contest signifies everything wrong about how Strikeforce fighters can be handled by Zuffa and Showtime. The second, almost the exact opposite, brings to light the partnership's vast potential.

While it's tremendous that Cormier has an opportunity in his first defense to fight an established former UFC champion, an ideal stepping stone into the Octagon, it's no less maddening to witness Melendez squander his best years against mostly durable, unspectacular opponents.

We know Cormier's next bout will be his last for Strikeforce. The promotion’s heavyweight division on Showtime is shuttered regardless of what happens when Cormier (10-0) tangles with Mir. We also know Melendez remains one of Strikeforce's lone promotable commodities, having signed a lucrative extension just prior to Zuffa taking control of Scott Coker's company.

Yet the vast difference in upward mobility between Cormier and Melendez is mind boggling, and it's apparently due to parameters established by Showtime and Zuffa.

"My career has played out where I've advanced at every step, from one guy to the next to the next,” Cormier told ESPN.com. “I wasn't sure if there were too many guys outside of UFC who fit that. Frank Mir does that and even more.”

That’s terrific. Take nothing away from Cormier. He deserves a chance like this. But contrasted against Melendez’s experience, where it seems as if he’s bound to purgatory, it doesn’t sit so well.

Melendez is ranked in the top five of ESPN.com’s lightweight rankings, yet isn’t free to challenge himself on a regular basis against the toughest men at 155 pounds?

Cormier doesn’t deserve to advance his career more than Melendez. The opposite is probably true. Melendez has been in the game five years longer. He’s been a champion longer. He’s accomplished more. Yet he can’t. He’s stuck. He’s stuck while the possibility of so much more dangles in front of him.

Take Healy. The 29-year-old veteran may have done enough to earn a title shot in Strikeforce, but he’s not a contender that will inspire fans to want to watch. He won’t do a thing to elevate Melendez. He wouldn’t sniff a title fight in the UFC. And thus far, lightweights assigned to the UFC have no interest in moving to Strikeforce to meet Melendez on Showtime.

Where is the lightweight Frank Mir? It’s way past time to get something like that done for Melendez, the network to which he’s bound, and fans dying to see him tested.

Much was made in media reports recently about Showtime's control over the talent that fights on Strikeforce cards. Essentially if a fighter is signed to Strikeforce, he or she is prohibited from moving to the UFC in the vast majority of instances until their contract is over.

Now, you can't blame Showtime for wanting to maintain some semblance of control over the fighters whose fights it airs.

When Zuffa first purchased Strikeforce it almost immediately began plucking away talent, much to Showtime's chagrin, who had some leverage to play with. Nick Diaz, perhaps the network's most consistent name and talent, renegotiated a flexible deal that allowed him to box for a chance to fight Georges St. Pierre. Alistair Overeem had just one contest left on his contract, yet he was lined up for two more because of his participation in the Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix, so Zuffa "cut" him while retaining exclusive rights of negotiation and he ended up in the UFC.

Showtime was left with little more than a degrading fighter roster.

The network was forced to protect itself. It couldn't be in the business of building up talent, only to see fighters yanked away to UFC when they matured enough to deliver a return on investment. Showtime stepped into MMA because of the belief the sport could help build its subscriber base. If the reason people signed up -- the fighters they loved to watch -- were no longer there, then what was the point?

Unfortunately, the melding of boxing and MMA business models essentially meant that fighters had little say over how their careers would transpire.

If a boxer doesn’t want to appear on Showtime, he (or she) can negotiate a deal with HBO. Not so in MMA.

So, we’re left with Cormier as an aberration, and Melendez as the rule. That needs to change for the betterment of everyone involved.